Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a volatile and slightly bullish pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract fluctuating between 3000 and 3060. The main influencing factors include the uncertainty of weather in US soybean - growing areas, the high arrival of imported soybeans in China, and the demand for soybean meal [8]. - The soybean market is in a neutral situation in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3920 and 4020. Factors such as the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean production, and the demand for domestic soybeans affect the market [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - No specific content provided for a detailed summary. 2. Recent News - The progress of Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is affected by relatively positive USDA report data and is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, awaiting further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and tariff negotiations [12]. - In China, the arrival of imported soybeans remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills reached a relatively high level. Affected by the USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is in a short - term volatile and slightly bullish pattern [12]. - The decline in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price, and the market is back in a range - bound pattern due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations [12]. - The short - term bullish oscillation of soybean meal is affected by factors such as the possible weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas, the changeable Sino - US tariff war, and it awaits the clarification of South American soybean production and the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high arrival volume of imported soybeans in July, the end of Brazilian soybean harvesting, and the continuous expectation of a bumper South American soybean harvest [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper Brazilian soybean harvest and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2990, with a basis of - 60, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybean meal is 105.33 tons, a 3.8% increase from last week and a 29.71% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4200, with a basis of 230, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of oil mills' soybeans is 682.53 tons, a 0.31% increase from last week and a 5.46% decrease compared to the same period last year [10]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Provide data on harvest area, initial inventory, production, total supply, total consumption, ending inventory, and inventory - to - consumption ratio from 2015 to 2024, showing the long - term supply - demand situation of soybeans globally and in China [31][32]. - **Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices**: Present the trading prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from August 22 to September 2, as well as the price trends of soybean and soybean meal futures and spot from August 25 to September 2 [15][17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics**: Record the quantity changes of soybean and soybean meal warehouse receipts from August 21 to September 2 [19]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the long positions of the main contract decreased, and funds flowed out [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, making it difficult to reverse the downward trend [8][9][14]. - The lithium carbonate 2511 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 71,040 - 74,220 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, a decline in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decrease in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors are the high - level supply from ore and salt lake sources with limited decline and the insufficient willingness of the power battery sector to take delivery [12][13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a 0.56% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the production was 85,240 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The August import volume was 17,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 94,493 tons, a 0.91% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,832 tons, a 1.22% week - on - week increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 76,333 yuan/ton, a 0.89% daily decrease, with a production profit of 50 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 80,138 yuan/ton, a 0.85% daily decrease, with a production loss of 5,811 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production scheduling enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production scheduling motivation [9]. - **Other Indicators**: - **Fundamentals**: Neutral [9]. - **Basis**: On September 2, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 77,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 4,880 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, indicating a bullish signal [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 43,336 tons, a 7.49% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 52,800 tons, a 2.51% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average [9][11]. - **Market Chart**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral signal [11]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions, indicating a bearish signal [9]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with a decline range of 2.99% - 3.89%. The basis of various contracts increased, with an increase range of 37.72% - 74.91%. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 2.60% [17]. - **Upstream Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.22% to 887 dollars/ton, and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.54% to 1,920 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.08% to 77,500 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 1.12% to 75,200 yuan/ton [17]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 66.41%, unchanged from the previous period. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase [19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 264,720 tons, a 4.96% increase. The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate lithium was 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase. The monthly production of ternary precursor was 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price**: The price of lithium ore has shown a certain downward trend, with the price of lithium spodumene (6%) at 887 dollars/ton, a 1.22% decrease [17]. - **Production**: The production of domestic lithium ore has changed, with the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica showing different trends. The monthly production of lithium concentrate in August 2025 was 533,30 tons, a 19.01% increase, and the production of lithium mica was 13,700 tons, a 23.89% decrease [19]. - **Import**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate in August 2025 was 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase, and the import volume from Australia was 427,301 tons, a 67.24% increase [19]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The domestic lithium ore supply - demand balance shows a deficit in most months, with the balance in August 2025 at - 2,815 tons [27]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Operating Rate**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate has changed, with different trends for different raw material sources. The overall operating rate shows a certain fluctuation [30]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium carbonate has increased, with the production in August 2025 at 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase [19]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 17,000 tons, and the export volume was 307 tons. The supply - demand balance in August 2025 was - 2,090 tons [36]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has changed, with different trends for causticization and smelting [38][40]. - **Production**: The monthly production of lithium hydroxide has changed, with the production in August 2025 at 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease [19]. - **Import and Export**: The monthly export volume of lithium hydroxide in August 2025 was 4,000 tons, and the import volume was 350 tons. The supply - demand balance in August 2025 was - 6,061 tons [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica has decreased, and the profit situation is different. The production of lithium spodumene has a profit of 50 yuan/ton, while the production of lithium mica has a loss of 5,811 yuan/ton [9]. - **Recycling**: The cost of recycling to produce lithium carbonate is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm [9]. - **Import and Other Processing**: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide to lithium carbonate have all changed [48][50][53]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly inventory of lithium carbonate has changed, with the smelter inventory decreasing by 7.49% to 43,336 tons, and the downstream inventory increasing by 2.51% to 52,800 tons. The total inventory was 141,136 tons, a 0.28% decrease [9][11]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide has changed, with the downstream and smelter inventories showing different trends [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price**: The price of lithium batteries has changed, with different trends for different types of batteries [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly production and sales volume of lithium batteries have changed, with the monthly production of power batteries showing a certain increase, and the export volume also increasing [59]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price**: The price of ternary precursor has changed, with different trends for different series [64]. - **Production and Supply - demand Balance**: The monthly production of ternary precursor has increased, with the production in August 2025 at 73,440 tons, a 6.99% increase. The supply - demand balance in August 2025 was - 4,154 tons [19][67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price**: The price of ternary material has changed, with different trends for different series [70]. - **Production and Inventory**: The monthly production of ternary material has changed, and the weekly inventory has also changed [70][72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has changed, with different trends for different types [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium has increased, and the monthly export volume of iron phosphate lithium has also increased [74][77]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales and Export**: The production, sales and export volume of new energy vehicles have changed, with the production and sales showing a certain increase, and the export volume also increasing [82]. - **Penetration Rate and Other Indicators**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased, and the retail - wholesale ratio and inventory warning index have also changed [83][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries have reduced production this week, reducing supply pressure, but next week may increase supply pressure [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat month - on - month, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit increased by 5.60% month - on - month, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries decreased by 6.05% month - on - month. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil is strengthening, and it is expected to support the price in the short term [9]. - Expectation: Refineries have reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory remains flat; crude oil is strengthening, and cost support is strengthening in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3531 - 3571 [10]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - **Supply**: Refineries' recent production cuts reduce supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand**: Overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish, with most downstream开工率s lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Crude oil strengthening provides short - term cost support, while asphalt processing losses increase [9]. - **Expectation**: Futures price to fluctuate narrowly, with asphalt 2511 in the 3531 - 3571 range [10]. - **Likely positive factors**: Relatively high crude oil cost provides some support [13]. - **Likely negative factors**: Insufficient demand for high - priced goods and overall downward demand due to strengthened recession expectations in Europe and the United States [14]. - **Main logic**: High supply pressure and weak demand recovery [15]. 3.2 Fundamentals/Position Data - **Basis**: On September 2nd, the Shandong spot price was 3540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased by 1.70% month - on - month to 1270000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 5.86% month - on - month to 674000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory increased by 26.67% month - on - month to 190000 tons [11]. - **Futures price trend**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [11]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [11]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market Analysis - **Basis trend**: Renders the historical trends of Shandong and East China asphalt basis [20][21]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main - contract spread**: Displays the historical trends of 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads [23][24]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: Shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and WTI crude oil [26][27]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent cracking spreads [29][30][31]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: Illustrates the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [33][35]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market Analysis - **Regional market price trends**: Depicts the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [36][37]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt profit [38][39]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: Displays the historical trends of the coking - asphalt profit spread [41][43]. - **Supply side**: - **Shipment volume**: Presents the historical trends of weekly shipment volume [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory [46][47]. - **Production volume**: Displays the historical trends of weekly and monthly production volume [49][50]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: Shows the historical trends of Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production volume**: Presents the historical trends of local refinery asphalt production volume [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: Shows the historical trends of weekly capacity utilization rate [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: Displays the historical trends of estimated maintenance loss volume [61][62]. - **Inventory**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: Shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts [64][65][66]. - **Social and factory inventory**: Presents the historical trends of social and factory inventory [68][69]. - **Factory inventory - inventory ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio [71][72]. - **Import and export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: Shows the historical trends of asphalt export and import [74][75]. - **Korean asphalt import price difference trend**: Displays the historical trends of the Korean asphalt import price difference [77][78][79]. - **Demand side**: - **Petroleum coke production volume**: Presents the historical trends of petroleum coke production volume [80][81]. - **Apparent consumption volume**: Shows the historical trends of apparent consumption volume [83][84]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: Displays the historical trends of highway construction and traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year [86][87][88]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: Presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales [90][91][93]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt开工率**: Shows the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 [95][96]. - **Asphalt开工率 by use**: Displays the historical trends of construction asphalt, modified asphalt开工率 [98]. - **Downstream开工率**: Presents the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane开工率 [99][100][102]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: Provides a monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet [104][105].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年7月PVC产量为200.461万吨，环比增加0.67%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.02%，环比减少0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量33.0135万吨，环比增加0.57%,乙烯法企业产 量12.516万吨，环比减少8.34%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为42.6%，环比减少0.10个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为42.6%，环比增加.95个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.61%，环比持平，低于历 史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply-side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, while demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has slightly increased. It is expected to fluctuate between 8330 - 8610 [3]. - For polycrystalline silicon, the short - term supply - side production scheduling will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate between 50780 - 52970 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% week - on - week increase [3]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% week - on - week increase [3]. - Inventory: Silicon inventory is 213,000 tons (low), organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons (high) [3]. - Cost: The production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 in Xinjiang is 3254 yuan/ton, and the cost support in the wet season has weakened [3]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing in East China was 8950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 480 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The social inventory decreased by 0.36% week - on - week, the sample enterprise inventory decreased, and the main port inventory increased by 1.71% week - on - week [3]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed below MA20 [3]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is short, and the short position has decreased [3]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Supply: Last week's output was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% week - on - week increase. The planned output in September is 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer output was 13.31GW, an 8.29% week - on - week increase; the battery cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase; the component output in August was 49.2GW, a 4.45% month - on - month increase [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polycrystalline silicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,380 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 2nd, the price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 375 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory decreased by 14.45% week - on - week and is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the 11 - contract futures price closed above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The net position of the main players is long, and the long position has decreased [9]. 3.2 Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts showed various changes, with some contracts rising and some falling [15]. - Spot prices of different types of silicon in East China had different changes, with some remaining stable and some rising slightly [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and main port inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [15]. Polycrystalline Silicon - Prices of different types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components showed various changes, with some rising, some remaining stable, and some falling [17]. - Inventory: Silicon wafer inventory, battery cell inventory, and component inventory had different trends of increase or decrease [17]. 3.3 Other Aspects - Industrial silicon price - basis and delivery product price difference trends are presented through historical data charts [19]. - Industrial silicon inventory trends of different regions and overall inventory are shown through historical data charts [22]. - Industrial silicon production and capacity utilization trends of different regions and overall are presented through historical data charts [26]. - Industrial silicon cost trends of different sample regions are shown through historical data charts [32]. - Industrial silicon weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of different periods [34][37]. - For the downstream of industrial silicon: - Organic silicon: DMC production, price, cost, profit, import - export, and inventory trends are presented through historical data charts [40]. - Aluminum alloy: Price, supply, inventory, production, and demand (automobile and wheel hub) trends are shown through historical data charts [49]. - Polycrystalline silicon: Cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of different links (silicon wafer, battery cell, photovoltaic component) are presented through historical data charts [57].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-03原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：土耳其总统埃尔多安表示，他在中国与俄罗斯总统普京会谈时讨论了结束乌克兰战争的方 式，并与乌克兰总统泽连斯基就此通了电话，但双方"尚未准备好"举行领导人会晤；投资者目前正关 注石油输出国组织(OPEC)及其盟国将于9月7日召开的会议，以寻找该组织对产量政策调整的任何线索。 市场机构预计该组织不会解除包括沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯在内的八个产油国的自愿减产规模；中性 2.基差：9月2日，阿曼原油现货价为71.9美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为71.28美元/桶，基差42.62 元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level has no positive news, and the supply - demand contradiction of methanol is becoming more prominent. It is expected that the domestic methanol price may be under pressure to decline this week. Inland, there are few recent maintenance devices, and multiple methanol devices such as Yigao and Shilin restarted in late August, leading to a significant increase in supply. The reduction of external procurement by CTO plants in Ningxia, the impact of large - scale events in early September on demand in the North China region, and the reverse flow of low - priced port goods to the inland all suppress the inland market. In the port area, Iranian shipments are concentrated, and it is expected that the port will continue to accumulate inventory. However, as the price drops, the reverse flow of port goods to the inland may gradually increase, and attention should be paid to the re - export window. With a weak macro - level and fundamentals, the short - term driving force is still downward. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, and MA2601 will fluctuate between 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For methanol 2601, in terms of fundamentals, with no macro - level positive and prominent supply - demand contradictions, the price is expected to be under pressure. The current situation shows that the inland supply has increased, and the port may continue to accumulate inventory. The basis shows that the spot price in Jiangsu is 2260 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis is - 112, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures. As of August 28, 2025, the social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports has significantly increased by 13.18 tons to 106.60 tons, and the overall available and tradable supply in coastal areas has increased by 8.44 tons to 69.13 tons. The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below the moving average. The net long position of the main contract is decreasing. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with MA2601 ranging from 2340 - 2400 yuan/ton [5]. 2. Multi - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Some devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya have stopped production. The methanol production in Iran has decreased, and the port inventory is at a low level. A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has started production on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production in late August. CTO plants in the Northwest are procuring methanol externally [6]. - **Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have restarted. There are expected to be concentrated arrivals at the port in the second half of the month. Formaldehyde has entered the traditional off - season, and the MTBE operation rate has significantly declined. Coal - to - methanol production has a certain profit margin and is actively shipping. Some factories in the production area have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Price**: The spot price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim is 671 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol in different regions has different changes. For example, the price in Jiangsu has decreased by 0.67% this week, while the price in Shandong has remained unchanged. The futures closing price of methanol has decreased by 13 yuan/ton to 2372 yuan/ton. The basis, import price difference, and other price - related indicators have also changed to varying degrees [8][9]. - **Operating Rate**: The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from last week. The operating rates in different regions such as East China, Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest have all declined to varying degrees [8]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in East China ports has increased by 7.22 tons to 64.48 tons, and the inventory in South China ports has increased by 5.96 tons to 42.12 tons [8]. 4. Maintenance Conditions - **Domestic Methanol Plants**: Many domestic methanol plants are in a state of maintenance, shutdown, or reduced load. For example, Shaanxi Heimao, Qinghai Zhonghao, and other plants are in maintenance, and some plants such as Shanxi Qinyang are operating at a reduced load [60]. - **Overseas Methanol Plants**: Some overseas methanol plants, especially those in Iran, are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level. For example, ZPC in Iran is reported to have restarted one unit, and Marjan is in the process of restarting in mid - March [61]. - **Olefin Plants**: Some olefin plants are in maintenance or operating at a low level. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin plants have been shut down for maintenance since March 15, and Qinghai Salt Lake's plant has been shut down since November 12, 2024, with the recovery time undetermined [62].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the analysis of fuel oil fundamentals, the overall price is expected to be slightly bullish, with FU2510 expected to trade in the range of 2820 - 2860 and LU2511 in the range of 3510 - 3560 [3]. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has declined slightly, but expected lower Western arbitrage cargo arrivals in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the market's downside in the short term. The 9 - 10 month swap spread of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 42 cents per ton on August 29 [3]. - The basis shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish. The inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.03 million barrels in the week of August 27, also a bullish factor. However, the high - sulfur and low - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions for high - sulfur and a shift from long to short for low - sulfur, which is bearish. Overall, the price is expected to be slightly bullish due to the overnight geopolitical risk event and slightly improved fundamentals [3]. - The recent market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. There are both bullish and bearish factors. Bullish factors include the possible intensification of sanctions against Russia, while bearish factors are the unproven optimistic demand and weak upstream crude oil prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The previous and current prices, price changes, and percentage changes of FU and LU main contracts are provided. The FU main contract futures price increased from 2820 to 2841 (up 0.74%), and the LU main contract futures price increased from 3471 to 3542 (up 2.05%). The FU basis decreased from 108 to 83 (- 23.53%), and the LU basis decreased from 133 to 41 (- 69.49%) [5]. - The previous and current prices, price changes, and percentage changes of various spot fuel oils (Zhoushan high - sulfur, Zhoushan low - sulfur, Singapore high - sulfur, Singapore low - sulfur, Middle East high - sulfur, and Singapore diesel) are presented. For example, the Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil price increased from $497.00 to $505.00 (up 1.61%), while the Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil price decreased from $400.86 to $398.63 (- 0.56%) [6]. 2. Multi - Empty Concerns - Bullish factor: Possible intensification of sanctions against Russia - Bearish factors: Optimistic demand on the demand side remains to be verified; Upstream crude oil prices are weak - Market driver: Resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4] 3. Fundamental Data - **Fundamentals**: Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure is slightly bearish, but short - term downside may be limited. The 9 - 10 month swap spread of Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount narrowed to - 42 cents per ton on August 29; neutral - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil basis is $83 per ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil basis is $41 per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures; bullish - **Inventory**: Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 27 was 21.889 million barrels, a decrease of 2.03 million barrels; bullish - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat; neutral - **Main positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions; low - sulfur main positions are short, shifting from long to short; bearish - **Expectation**: The price is expected to be slightly bullish. FU2510 is expected to trade in the range of 2820 - 2860, and LU2511 in the range of 3510 - 3560 [3] 4. Spread Data The report does not provide specific spread data content other than the high - low sulfur futures spread chart [12]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 18 to August 27 is provided. For example, the inventory on June 18 was 22.899 million barrels, a decrease of 0.22 million barrels compared to the previous period, and on August 27, it was 21.889 million barrels, a decrease of 2.03 million barrels compared to the previous period [8].

Group 1: Report Summary - Report date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are still at a relatively high level, with overall high inventory. The domestic urea market remains in a state of significant oversupply, while export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations. The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate today [4]. - The main factors affecting the market are the strong international prices and weak domestic demand, with the main risk being changes in export policies [5]. Group 4: Urea Overview Fundamental Analysis - Recently, the urea futures market has experienced a volatile decline. Previously, the market was affected by rumors of relaxed urea export policies, leading to a rise in futures prices, but market sentiment has since cooled. The current daily production and operating rate remain high, and inventory is generally at a high level. In terms of demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are at a medium level, while agricultural demand is limited. The overall supply of domestic urea significantly exceeds demand, but export profits remain strong [4]. Basis Analysis - The basis of the UR2601 contract is 44, with a premium/discount ratio of 2.5%, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Inventory Analysis - The comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), indicating a bearish signal [4]. Market Analysis - The 20 - day moving average of the main UR contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bearish signal [4]. Main Position Analysis - The net long position of the main UR contract is increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. Expectation Analysis - The main contract of urea is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong, but export policies have not been relaxed beyond expectations, and the domestic market remains in a state of significant oversupply [4]. Factors Affecting the Market - Bullish factors: Strong international prices [5]. - Bearish factors: High operating rate and daily production, weak domestic demand [5]. Group 5: Market Data Spot Market - The price of the deliverable spot is 1,790 yuan (-0 yuan), the price of Shandong spot is 1,790 yuan (-0 yuan), the price of Henan spot is 1,810 yuan (-0 yuan), and the FOB price in China is 3,031 yuan [6]. Futures Market - The price of the UR01 contract is 1,746 yuan (+3 yuan), the price of the UR05 contract is 1,787 yuan (+3 yuan), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1,677 yuan (+7 yuan) [6]. Inventory Data - The warehouse receipt is 7,205 tons (-0 tons), the comprehensive inventory of UR is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), the factory inventory of UR is 859,000 tons (-0 tons), and the port inventory of UR is 543,000 tons (-0 tons) [6]. Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2,245.5 | | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4,906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the high expectation of Fed easing and the weakening of domestic risk appetite, the price of gold has increased significantly, and the price of silver has fluctuated at a high level. As the September Fed meeting approaches and the dovish expectation of the shadow Fed is high, the price of gold is strong, and the price of silver is still supported by the price of gold [4][6]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold [10][13]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: The high expectation of Fed easing led to a significant rise in the price of gold. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes all closed down. The yield of US Treasury bonds rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rising 3.50 basis points to 4.260%. The US dollar index rose 0.66% to 98.32, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar to 7.1385. COMEX gold futures rose 1.51% to $3599.5 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The high expectation of Fed easing caused the price of silver to fluctuate at a high level. Other market indicators were similar to those of gold, and COMEX silver futures closed flat at $41.73 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis was - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 447 kilograms to 40191 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [5]. - Silver: The basis was - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 8001 kilograms to 1215228 kilograms; the 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average; the main net position was long, and the main long position increased [6]. 3. Today's Focus - A series of economic data and events need to be focused on, including South Korea's Q2 GDP, Vietnam's August manufacturing PMI, Japan's August service and composite PMI final value, China's August S&P service and composite PMI, etc. Also, speeches by central bank officials such as the European Central Bank President Lagarde and the US St. Louis Fed President Musalem, as well as the Fed's economic beige book and US July JOLTS job openings, are important [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold** - **Likely positive factors**: Global turmoil with lingering risk - aversion sentiment; significant shadow Fed with rising expectation of interest rate cuts; tense situations in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East leading to resurgent inflation; impact of tariff concerns [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Cessation of interest rate cuts and improved economic expectations; European fiscal expansion falling short of expectations with the US standing out again; deterioration of risk appetite; end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the price of gold to fall back. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government will continue, and the sentiment of the gold price is high, still prone to rise and hard to fall [10]. - **Silver** - **Likely positive factors**: Similar to those of gold, and the tariff on non - ferrous metals supports the price of silver [14]. - **Likely negative factors**: Similar to those of gold [14]. - **Logic**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, and the price of silver still mainly follows the price of gold. The concern about tariffs has a stronger impact on the price of silver, and the price of silver is prone to an enlarged increase [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai gold increased by 5.86% to 243,530 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions increased by 4.39% to 70,476, and the net positions increased by 6.47% to 173,054 [31]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 holders of Shanghai silver increased by 1.57% to 373,101 on September 2, 2025, compared with September 1. The short positions decreased by 1.59% to 274,760, and the net positions increased by 11.59% to 98,341 [33]. - **ETF Positions**: The gold ETF positions continued to increase, and the silver ETF positions increased slightly and were higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level, and the Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were higher than the same period last year, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continued to increase with renewed tariff concerns [39][41].