大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月20日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为669.5元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度 产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14 万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14779，基差1294（01合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1017 yuan/ton to 1009 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass dropped from 1016 yuan/ton to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57%. The main basis increased from - 1 yuan/ton to - 9 yuan/ton, a rise of 800.00% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1000 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has weak recovery, and the supply is at a historically low level in the same period. The national floating glass production line has 222 in operation, with an operating rate of 75%, and the daily melting volume is 15.91 tons, both at historically low levels in the same period [2][21][23]. Fundamental - Demand Side - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 470.82 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the orders of glass deep - processing enterprises are at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [2][26]. Fundamental - Inventory Side - The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of floating glass have fluctuated. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [40]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the floating glass industry has seen capacity clearance, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair, resulting in production losses [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. The "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [3][4].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1182元/吨，基差为-42元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.73万吨，较前一周减少0.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。SA2601：1130-1180区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃供给低位企稳 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver are oscillating at high levels due to the hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve members [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates again in December is uncertain, with significant differences in opinions among FOMC members [43] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Not explicitly described in the provided text 2. Logical Analysis - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: GDP growth shows fluctuations, exports and imports have different growth rates, and trade deficits vary. Manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are in a state of change, and consumer confidence is on an upward trend. Industrial production and real estate data also have their own trends [28] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: There are differences in the hawkish and dovish stances among Federal Reserve members. The probability of interest rate cuts is changing, and there are uncertainties about future interest - rate policies [33][35][43] - **Inflation**: Inflation has short - term upward pressure. The 9 - month CPI is more moderate than expected, and non - tariff inflation is close to the 2% target [43] - **Employment**: The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant increase in weakness, and labor supply has decreased [43] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price and Ratio**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has rebounded to over 4.1%. There are fluctuations in the gold - silver ratio in the London and Shanghai spot markets [20][21] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index and the USD/CNH spot exchange rate are in a state of change [18] - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE show different trends over time [28] 4. Position Data - **Futures Positions**: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold and silver futures, there are changes in long positions, short positions, and net positions [49][52] - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions are falling, and silver ETF positions are oscillating [55] - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory is increasing, COMEX gold inventory is oscillating at a high level. Shanghai silver inventory has decreased significantly, and COMEX silver inventory has been continuously decreasing [57][58] 5. Summary - Not provided in the document

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为652.84元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%, 处于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is oscillating, with geopolitical risks providing support. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are slightly boosted, but the high - low sulfur price spread remains high and is expected to take time to narrow. FU2601 is expected to run strongly in the range of 2540 - 2590, and LU2601 in the range of 3220 - 3280 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong downstream marine fuel demand, with stable buying interest this week. Some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China, and refineries are buying high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive for the first time in six weeks [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 347.77 dollars/ton with a basis of 0 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at 448.05 dollars/ton with a basis of 24 dollars/ton, indicating a flat cash - futures relationship [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by strong downstream demand, and some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China. Refineries are also purchasing high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels. Historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 are also provided [3][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表Kaja Kallas表示，莫斯科针对欧盟的攻击应被视为恐怖主义。 此番言论发表之际，柴油市场供应趋紧；消息人士称，由于乌克兰无人机周五发动袭击，俄罗斯新罗 西斯克港口的原油装运比原定计划晚了2到3天；欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯表示，欧佩克预计2026年不会 出现石油供应过剩，并猛烈抨击媒体对其《月度石油市场报告》的报道失实；中性 2.基差：11月18日，阿曼原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.16美元/桶，基差 30.76元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for methanol currently lacks highlights, and supply pressure persists. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate this week. The inland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, the methanol price is expected to be weak and volatile, with MA2601 oscillating between 2000 - 2065 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol show that the inland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some domestic and Iranian devices have reduced production or are shut down, some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production, and some northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, MTBE operation has declined, coal - to - methanol has a profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2025 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2030 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - **Market Price Changes**: The spot prices of methanol in most domestic regions have declined to varying degrees this week. The CFR price of imported methanol and the price of methanol in Southeast Asia have also decreased [8][9][24]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol has remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has decreased. The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have changed to varying degrees, and the MTO production profit has increased [20][35][38][43][48]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian and other overseas methanol devices are in the process of restarting, operation, or maintenance, such as ZPC in Iran and QAFAC in Qatar [59]. - **MTO Devices**: Some MTO devices in Northwest and other regions are operating stably, while some are in a state of parking or load reduction, such as Qinghai Salt Lake and Gansu Huating [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have reduced production recently. The current demand is below the historical average level, and the overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The cost is expected to strengthen in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices, and the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The output of sample enterprises was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average level, and the asphalt processing loss has increased [8]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. Social inventory continued to decline, while in - plant and port inventories continued to increase [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Due to the reduction in refinery production, the supply pressure has decreased. The demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. With the rising crude oil prices, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts on the previous day, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on weekly inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price was 3032 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt in different regions [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships among different energy products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the price changes of asphalt in the Shandong region [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which helps in understanding the profit differences between different asphalt - related products [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical weekly 开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical inventory ratio of factory inventory from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [86][90][93]. - **Asphalt 开工率**: It shows the historical 开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [96][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106].