1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [10]. - In the short - term, there are both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of lithium spodumene. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [8][9]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost - dominated situation will weaken. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 19,030 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56%, higher than the historical average. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased week - on - week. The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate increased day - on - day, while the cost of purchased lithium mica decreased. The cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm, and the cost of the salt lake end is significantly lower with sufficient profit margins [7]. - **Basis**: On September 1st, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 78,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 2,790 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [7]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory decreased week - on - week, while the downstream and other inventories increased. The overall inventory decreased slightly week - on - week but was higher than the historical average [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [7]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: In July 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 84,200 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.27%. The import volume is expected to increase by 33.62% month - on - month. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The 2511 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 73,980 - 77,140 [6]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Basis**: The prices of lithium carbonate and related products showed different degrees of decline. The basis and futures closing prices also had corresponding changes [13][16]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate and related products had different trends, with some increasing and some decreasing [16]. - **Demand - side Data**: The demand - side data such as the production and inventory of lithium - iron phosphate and ternary materials also showed corresponding changes [16]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines showed different trends over time [23]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate showed an overall upward trend, with significant increases in imports from Australia [23]. - **Self - sufficiency Rate**: The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore had different trends for lithium spodumene, lithium ore, and lithium mica [23]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [26]. 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly and monthly operating rates and production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycled materials) showed different trends [29]. - **Import Volume**: The monthly import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) also had corresponding changes [29]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [35]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The weekly capacity utilization and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (causticization and smelting) showed different trends [37][38][40]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [44]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost and Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The cost and profit of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate for production showed different trends over time [47]. - **Processing Cost Composition**: The processing cost composition of lithium spodumene and lithium mica included energy consumption, auxiliary materials, and miscellaneous items, and showed different trends [47]. - **Other Cost and Profit**: The cost and profit of recycling production of lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate purification, and lithium hydroxide carbonization also had corresponding changes [49][52]. 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate and Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide in smelters and downstream showed different trends over time [54]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Production**: The price, production, and shipment volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time [58][60]. - **Battery Cost**: The cost of lithium battery cells also had corresponding changes [58]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price and cost of ternary precursors showed different trends over time, and the profit of external raw material procurement also changed [63]. - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: The capacity utilization and monthly production of ternary precursors showed different trends [63]. - **Supply - demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different months, with some months in short supply and some in surplus [66]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - profit**: The price, cost, and profit of ternary materials showed different trends over time [69]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate and production of ternary materials showed different trends [69]. - **Inventory and Trade Volume**: The inventory, import, and export volume of ternary materials also had corresponding changes [71]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - profit**: The price, cost, and profit of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [73]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The monthly operating rate and production of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends [73][76]. - **Inventory and Export Volume**: The inventory and export volume of iron phosphate lithium also had corresponding changes [76][78]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicles - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time [81]. - **Sales Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles also had corresponding changes [82]. - **Retail - wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers showed different trends [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased by 1.44 percentage points month - on - month, the output of sample enterprises decreased by 4.37% month - on - month, and the estimated device maintenance volume increased by 5.25% month - on - month. Refineries reduced production this week to ease supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - Demand side: The current demand is below the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 decreased by 0.05 percentage points month - on - month, the construction asphalt开工率 remained flat, the modified asphalt开工率 increased by 0.15 percentage points month - on - month, the road - modified asphalt开工率 remained flat, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 increased by 3.26 percentage points month - on - month [8]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 5.60%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. Crude oil weakened, and it is expected that the support will weaken in the short term [9]. - Expectation: The refineries have recently reduced production to ease supply pressure. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and sluggish; the inventory remains flat; crude oil weakens, and the cost support weakens in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3519 - 3561 [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - related data**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate was 31.3998%, the sample enterprise output was 524,000 tons, and the estimated device maintenance volume was 682,000 tons [8]. - **Demand - related data**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 29.3%, the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, the modified asphalt开工率 was 17.1358%, the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 28.33%, and the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.86% [8]. - **Cost - related data**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 629.11 yuan/ton, and the weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 740.6729 yuan/ton [9]. - **Leverage factors**: The relatively high - level crude oil cost provides some support, while the lack of demand for high - price goods and the overall downward demand, along with the strengthened expectation of the European and American economic recession, are negative factors [13][14]. - **Main logic**: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Base - related data**: On September 1st, the spot price in Shandong was 3510 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 12 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [11]. - **Inventory - related data**: The social inventory was 1270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.70%; the in - plant inventory was 674,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.86%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 190,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.67% [11]. - **Disk - related data**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [11]. - **Main position - related data**: The main position was net long, with a decrease in long positions [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of the domestic pig market are expected to increase this week, and the pig price is expected to bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Prompt - The fundamentals show that in September, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase this week. The demand is boosted by the return of students to school and the approaching long - holiday, and the consumption of fresh pork is expected to increase. Overall, the market may see a situation of increasing supply and demand, with pig prices bottoming out and rebounding to maintain a volatile pattern. The market should pay attention to the monthly slaughter rhythm of group farms and the dynamic changes in the secondary fattening market [10]. - The basis: The national average spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2511 contract is 255 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [10]. - Inventory: As of June 30, the live pig inventory was 424.47 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.4% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. As of the end of June, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.42 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.02% and a year - on - year increase of 4.2% [10]. - The market trend: The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [10]. - Main positions: The main positions are net long, and the long positions are increasing [10]. - Expectation: The supply and demand of live pigs have recently begun to pick up. It is expected that the pig price will bottom out and rebound this week, maintaining a range - bound pattern. The LH2511 contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,400 - 13,800 [10]. 2. Recent News - China's additional tariffs on pork imports from the United States and Canada have boosted market confidence. Affected by the off - season, as the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day approach, the slaughter of large pigs has increased, resulting in an increase in both supply and demand of live pigs. The spot price has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term, and the futures price has also shown a range - bound pattern [12]. - The recent high - temperature weather has led to a short - term decline in pork demand. Affected by the increase in supply, the spot price of live pigs has been fluctuating weakly. However, due to the gradual recovery of demand, the downward space may be limited [12]. - The domestic pig farming profit has remained at a low level, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs has been relatively high in the short term. The increase in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of live pig futures and spot [12]. - The spot price of live pigs may fluctuate strongly before the National Day, and the futures price will generally return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Further observation of the growth of supply and demand is needed in the future [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: The domestic pig consumption has entered the peak season before the long - holiday, and the room for further decline in the domestic live pig spot price may be limited [13]. - Bearish factors: The domestic macro - environment has a pessimistic expectation due to the Sino - US tariff war, and the domestic live pig inventory has increased year - on - year [13]. - Current main logic: The market focuses on the slaughter situation of live pigs and the demand for fresh meat [13]. 4. Fundamental Data - The report provides data on live pig futures, warehouse receipts, and spot prices from August 22 to September 1, including the prices of the main 2511 contract, far - month 2601 contract, and some regional spot prices [14]. - It also presents various charts related to the fundamentals of live pigs, such as the basis and spread trends of live pig futures, the average prices of different specifications of live pigs in the spot market, and indicators on the supply side (including pig prices, piglet indicators, inventory at different levels, pork imports, fattening costs, etc.), the slaughter side (including prices, profits, etc.), and the demand side (including consumption trends, etc.) [15][17][23]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the content

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to enter a moderately bullish consolidation phase in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 3040 and 3100. The U.S. soybean market is influenced by the expected high yield and the progress of China - U.S. trade negotiations, waiting for further guidance on the growth weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas and the follow - up of China - U.S. tariff negotiations. In the domestic market, factors such as the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August, the premium of the spot price, and the good recent demand all have an impact on the market [8]. - The domestic soybean market is neutral in the short term, with the A2511 contract fluctuating between 3940 and 4040. It is affected by the U.S. soybean market, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans. The bottom of the domestic soybean price is supported by the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, but it is also restricted by the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean yield [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - The soybean meal M2601 contract is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100, and the soybean A2511 contract between 3940 and 4040 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - The short - term progress of China - U.S. tariff negotiations is positive for U.S. soybeans. The U.S. soybean market is rising due to relatively positive data from the U.S. Agricultural Report, and it is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark. The domestic soybean meal market is moderately bullish in the short term, affected by the relatively positive data from the August U.S. Agricultural Report and the rise of rapeseed meal [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - breeding profits leads to a low expectation of pig restocking. However, the recent increase in soybean meal demand supports the price. Due to the uncertainty of China - U.S. trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to the range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and uncertain weather in U.S. soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in July, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the continuous expectation of a high yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybean - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market, and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a high yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in the yield of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of global soybeans all showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also changed accordingly [31]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - and - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, import volume, total supply, total consumption, and ending inventory of domestic soybeans all changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated [32]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the main long positions decreased, and funds flowed out [8]. - For soybeans, the main long positions increased, and funds flowed out [10].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2500 - 2560. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, demand will enter the off - season, and there are still variables in Sino - Canadian trade consultations. The market is expected to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern in the short term [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - No specific content provided 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season. The listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expected tight supply in the spot market, and the demand side maintains good expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The global rapeseed production has decreased slightly this year due to the reduction in EU output and lower - than - expected Canadian output. The ongoing Russia - Ukraine conflict has uncertain impacts on global rapeseed production, and geopolitical conflicts may support commodity prices [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors include the preliminary anti - dumping determination and low inventory pressure on rapeseed meal in oil mills. Bearish factors are the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed in June and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed. The current main logic is the focus on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From August 21 to September 1, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal fluctuated around 2560 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was relatively low. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was relatively stable. The rapeseed meal futures price fluctuated and declined, and the spot premium slightly expanded. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract showed a weak oscillation. The import volume of rapeseed in August was lower than expected, and the import cost fluctuated slightly. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills rebounded from a low level, and the inventory of rapeseed meal decreased slightly. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased slightly. Aquatic fish prices fluctuated slightly, and shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [13][15][17]. 5. Position Data - No specific content provided 6. Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - Based on multiple factors such as fundamentals, basis, inventory, market trends, and main positions, the short - term trend of rapeseed meal is judged to be in a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, and follow - up developments need to be monitored [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-02甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：宏观面暂无利好，而供需矛盾逐步凸显，预计本周国内甲醇价格或承压下行。内地来看，近期检修装置不 多，而八月下旬易高、世林等多套甲醇装置重启，供应明显放量。而宁夏CTO工厂外采减少，以及9月初的大型活动对华 北区域内需求有影响，且港口低价货源倒流对内地行情也有压制，缺乏利好驱动预计短线内地甲醇下行调整。港口方 面，伊朗装船发运较为集中，预期港口将持续累库；但伴随价格下跌，后续港口货倒流内地走量或逐渐扩大；且印度价 格继续走强，关注转口窗口；宏观面降温，基本面偏弱，弱现实主导下，短期驱动仍然向下；中性 2、基差：江苏甲醇现货价为2245元/吨，01合约基差- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the PVC industry in the report is bearish [11] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish. The market is affected by multiple factors, with both positive and negative aspects coexisting. The current demand may continue to be weak, and the overall inventory is at a high level. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4861 - 4927 [13][14][9] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Overall Rating**: Bearish [11] - **Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [13] - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [13] - **Main Logic**: The overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is not smooth [14] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply Side - In July 2025, PVC production was 2.00461 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 76.02%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 330,135 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 125,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.34%. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with a small increase in scheduled production [7] 3.2.2 Demand Side - The overall downstream start - up rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile start - up rate was 42.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The downstream pipe start - up rate was 33.61%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The downstream film start - up rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin start - up rate was 69.26%, a month - on - month decrease of 8.27 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. The current demand may continue to be weak [7] 3.2.3 Cost Side - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 399.2026 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.20%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 627.9512 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.10%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2697.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit decrease of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may be under pressure [8] 3.2.4 Basis - On September 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 134 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [9] 3.2.5 Inventory - The in - factory inventory was 312,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.00%. The calcium carbide method factory inventory was 242,148 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.07%. The ethylene method factory inventory was 70,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.54%. The social inventory was 521,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.2 days, a month - on - month increase of 1.96% [9] 3.2.6 Disk - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20. It is bearish [9] 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [9] 3.2.8 Expectation - The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure decreased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week, with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may continue to be weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4861 - 4927 [9]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货跌后反弹，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，月下成交较为集中，现货基差走弱。贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯 工厂递盘。本周及下周主流在01贴水40商谈成交，少量在01贴水45~48附近成交，价格商谈区间在4710~4735附近。9月下在01贴 水35~40附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-42。中性 2、基差：现货4727，01合约基差-45，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.81天，环比增加0.1天 偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之上 偏多 MEG ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production has started to decline, the arrival level this month has decreased, overall supply and demand is loose, port inventories have decreased, a crude steel production cut policy will be introduced, and the trade war has eased, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis shows that the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 802, with a basis of 36; the spot price of Brazilian Blend at Rizhao Port converted to the futures price is 820, with a basis of 54, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - Port inventories stand at 143.8802 million tons, showing a decrease both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is bearish [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, a high - level consolidation approach is recommended [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Positive Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high - priced raw materials is strong [6]. Negative Factors - The future shipping volume will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6]. Iron Ore Port Spot Price No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Futures - Spot Basis No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Import Profit No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Shipping Volume No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Port Inventory and Steel Mill Inventory No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Arrival and Dispatching Volume No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Daily Consumption No specific content provided for summary. Steel Enterprise Production Situation No specific content provided for summary. Iron Ore Port Daily Transactions and Steel Mill Daily Hot Metal No specific content provided for summary.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the analysis of fuel oil, the overall price is expected to be slightly stronger, indicating a moderately positive outlook [3]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, but reduced Western arbitrage shipments in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the downside. The overall fuel oil market fundamentals have slightly improved, and the overall price is expected to run slightly stronger. The FU2510 is expected to operate in the 2820 - 2860 range, and the LU2511 in the 3510 - 3560 range [3]. - Overnight geopolitical risk events have boosted the market, and fuel oil prices have followed suit. The supply side is affected by geopolitical risks, and demand is neutral [3][4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - The fundamentals of fuel oil are neutral, with the Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure slightly down but potential support from reduced Western shipments and moderate demand. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish. The inventory has decreased, which is also bullish. The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is neutral. The high - sulfur main position is short - dominated with a reduction in short positions (bearish), while the low - sulfur main position has switched from short to long (bullish). Overall, the price is expected to be slightly stronger. The FU2510 is expected to trade between 2820 - 2860, and the LU2511 between 3510 - 3560 [3]. 3.2多空关注 - **Likely to be bullish**: There is a possibility of increased sanctions against Russia [4]. - **Likely to be bearish**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil price is weak [4]. 3.3基本面数据 - **Fundamentals**: The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure has slightly declined, but reduced Western arbitrage shipments in September and moderate bunker demand may limit the downside. The 9 - 10 month swap spread for Singapore 380CST high - sulfur fuel oil is $1.25 per ton, and the spot discount on August 29 has narrowed to - 42 cents per ton [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 108 yuan per ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 133 yuan per ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of August 27 was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels [3]. - **Market chart**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - **Main positions**: The high - sulfur main position is short - dominated with a reduction in short positions, while the low - sulfur main position has switched from short to long [3]. 3.4价差数据 - The report does not provide a detailed analysis of spread data, only showing the price changes of the FU and LU main contracts and their spreads, with the FU main contract price down 0.18% and the LU main contract price down 0.57%. The FU basis has increased by 174.63%, and the LU basis by 84.18% [5]. 3.5库存数据 - Singapore fuel oil inventory data from June 18 to August 27 shows fluctuations, with a significant decrease of 203 million barrels in the week of August 27 to 2188.9 million barrels [8].