交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-11-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动 预期，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1140元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1182元/吨，基差为-42元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存170.73万吨，较前一周减少0.40%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面不改疲弱，短期预计震荡运行为主。SA2601：1130-1180区间操作 影响因素总结 利多： 1、下游玻璃供给低位企稳 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The prices of gold and silver are oscillating at high levels due to the hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve members [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to cut interest rates again in December is uncertain, with significant differences in opinions among FOMC members [43] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - Not explicitly described in the provided text 2. Logical Analysis - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: GDP growth shows fluctuations, exports and imports have different growth rates, and trade deficits vary. Manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs are in a state of change, and consumer confidence is on an upward trend. Industrial production and real estate data also have their own trends [28] - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: There are differences in the hawkish and dovish stances among Federal Reserve members. The probability of interest rate cuts is changing, and there are uncertainties about future interest - rate policies [33][35][43] - **Inflation**: Inflation has short - term upward pressure. The 9 - month CPI is more moderate than expected, and non - tariff inflation is close to the 2% target [43] - **Employment**: The employment market is cooling due to restrictive policies, but there is no significant increase in weakness, and labor supply has decreased [43] 3. Fundamental Data - **Price and Ratio**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond has rebounded to over 4.1%. There are fluctuations in the gold - silver ratio in the London and Shanghai spot markets [20][21] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index and the USD/CNH spot exchange rate are in a state of change [18] - **Inflation Indicators**: CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE show different trends over time [28] 4. Position Data - **Futures Positions**: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold and silver futures, there are changes in long positions, short positions, and net positions [49][52] - **ETF Positions**: Gold ETF positions are falling, and silver ETF positions are oscillating [55] - **Inventory**: Shanghai gold inventory is increasing, COMEX gold inventory is oscillating at a high level. Shanghai silver inventory has decreased significantly, and COMEX silver inventory has been continuously decreasing [57][58] 5. Summary - Not provided in the document

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为652.84元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%, 处于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall oil price is oscillating, with geopolitical risks providing support. The fundamentals of high - sulfur fuel oil are slightly boosted, but the high - low sulfur price spread remains high and is expected to take time to narrow. FU2601 is expected to run strongly in the range of 2540 - 2590, and LU2601 in the range of 3220 - 3280 [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by strong downstream marine fuel demand, with stable buying interest this week. Some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China, and refineries are buying high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive for the first time in six weeks [3]. - **Basis**: Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is at 347.77 dollars/ton with a basis of 0 dollars/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil is at 448.05 dollars/ton with a basis of 24 dollars/ton, indicating a flat cash - futures relationship [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels [3]. - **Market**: Prices are below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are short, with short positions increasing; low - sulfur main positions are short, changing from long to short [3]. 3.2 Long - Short Concerns - **Positive Factors**: Russian fuel oil export restrictions and the cancellation of US - Russia talks along with sanctions on Russian oil - related enterprises [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The optimism on the demand side remains to be verified, and the upstream crude oil is under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - The high - sulfur fuel oil market is supported by strong downstream demand, and some low - sulfur fuel oil is sent to China. Refineries are also purchasing high - sulfur fuel oil as raw materials. The spot spread of Singapore's 0.5% sulfur marine fuel has turned positive [3]. 3.4 Spread Data - No specific spread data analysis is provided other than the basis information mentioned above. 3.5 Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of November 12 was 2087.9 million barrels, a decrease of 19 million barrels. Historical inventory data from September 3 to November 12 are also provided [3][8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-11-19原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2512： 1.基本面：欧盟外交与安全政策高级代表Kaja Kallas表示，莫斯科针对欧盟的攻击应被视为恐怖主义。 此番言论发表之际，柴油市场供应趋紧；消息人士称，由于乌克兰无人机周五发动袭击，俄罗斯新罗 西斯克港口的原油装运比原定计划晚了2到3天；欧佩克秘书长阿尔盖斯表示，欧佩克预计2026年不会 出现石油供应过剩，并猛烈抨击媒体对其《月度石油市场报告》的报道失实；中性 2.基差：11月18日，阿曼原油现货价为64.70美元/桶，卡塔尔海洋原油现货价为64.16美元/桶，基差 30.76元/桶，现货升水期货；偏多 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand for methanol currently lacks highlights, and supply pressure persists. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly fluctuate and consolidate this week. The inland market is likely to remain in a stalemate, while the port market may experience a bottom - strong oscillation, waiting for a rebound opportunity. Overall, the methanol price is expected to be weak and volatile, with MA2601 oscillating between 2000 - 2065 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Prompt - The fundamentals of methanol show that the inland market is expected to be in a stalemate, and the port market may be bottom - strong. The basis is neutral, inventory is bearish, the disk is bearish, the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile this week [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: Some domestic and Iranian devices have reduced production or are shut down, some acetic acid devices have been put into production or are planned to be put into production, and some northwest CTO factories are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Some previously shut - down devices have resumed production, there will be concentrated arrivals at ports in the second half of the month, the formaldehyde industry has entered the off - season, MTBE operation has declined, coal - to - methanol has a profit margin and is actively selling, and some factories in production areas have accumulated inventory [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2025 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 5, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. The futures closing price is 2030 yuan/ton [5][8]. - **Inventory**: As of November 13, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports was 127.90 million tons, with a cumulative increase of 1.29 million tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas decreased by 3.97 million tons to 76.59 million tons [5]. - **Market Price Changes**: The spot prices of methanol in most domestic regions have declined to varying degrees this week. The CFR price of imported methanol and the price of methanol in Southeast Asia have also decreased [8][9][24]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of coal - to - methanol has decreased, the profit of natural gas - to - methanol has remained unchanged, and the profit of coke oven gas - to - methanol has decreased. The production profits of traditional downstream products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and acetic acid have changed to varying degrees, and the MTO production profit has increased [20][35][38][43][48]. - **Operating Rate**: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol has decreased by 3.81% to 74.90%. The operating rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have all decreased [8]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - **Domestic Devices**: Many domestic methanol production enterprises are in a state of maintenance, parking, or load reduction, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, etc. [58]. - **Overseas Devices**: Some Iranian and other overseas methanol devices are in the process of restarting, operation, or maintenance, such as ZPC in Iran and QAFAC in Qatar [59]. - **MTO Devices**: Some MTO devices in Northwest and other regions are operating stably, while some are in a state of parking or load reduction, such as Qinghai Salt Lake and Gansu Huating [60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure is expected to decrease as refineries have reduced production recently. The current demand is below the historical average level, and the overall demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. The cost is expected to strengthen in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices, and the asphalt futures are expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. Specifically, the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors include insufficient demand for high - priced goods and a downward trend in overall demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals**: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples was 30.8006%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The shipment of sample enterprises was 213,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.02%. The output of sample enterprises was 514,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.38%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 836,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.21%. Overall, the current demand is below the historical average level, and the asphalt processing loss has increased [8]. - **Basis**: On November 18, the spot price in Shandong was 3030 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 2 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02%. The in - plant inventory was 647,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.94%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 350,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.75%. Social inventory continued to decline, while in - plant and port inventories continued to increase [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 was downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the main players was short, and the short positions decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: Due to the reduction in refinery production, the supply pressure has decreased. The demand is affected by the off - season and fails to meet expectations. With the rising crude oil prices, the cost support is expected to strengthen in the short - term, and the asphalt 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 3008 - 3056 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, production, and other data of different asphalt contracts on the previous day, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on weekly inventory, production, and开工率. For example, the 01 contract price was 3032 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day; the social inventory was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.03% [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between the spot and futures prices of asphalt in different regions [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the price differences between different contract periods [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It presents the historical crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for analyzing the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt against SC crude oil and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, which can assist in analyzing the relative price relationships among different energy products [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps investors understand the price changes of asphalt in the Shandong region [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trend of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which can be used to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical spread trend between coking and asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025, which helps in understanding the profit differences between different asphalt - related products [42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report presents the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The report presents the historical price trend of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical asphalt production of local refineries from 2019 to 2025 [57]. - **开工率**: The report presents the historical weekly 开工率 of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [62]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: The report shows the historical social inventory (70 sample enterprises) and factory inventory (54 sample enterprises) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [69]. - **Factory Inventory Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical inventory ratio of factory inventory from 2018 to 2025 [72]. - **Import and Export Situation**: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical spread trend of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 to 2025 [75][78]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It presents the historical production volume of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [81]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical apparent consumption volume of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [84]. - **Downstream Demand**: It includes the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion year - on - year growth rate, asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [86][90][93]. - **Asphalt 开工率**: It shows the historical 开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, asphalt by use, and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt) from 2019 - 2025 [96][99][101]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,545 tons, a 0.05% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In October 2025, the production was 92,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 92,080 tons, a 0.19% decrease. The import volume in October was 22,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 27,000 tons next month, a 22.73% increase [8][10]. - From the demand side, last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 104,738 tons, a 0.92% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 19,211 tons, a 1.74% decrease. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8]. - From the cost side, the cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate is 87,553 yuan/ton, a 2.42% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,376 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lithium mica is 91,635 yuan/ton, a 2.85% daily increase, with a loss of 7,641 yuan/ton. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The 2601 contract of lithium carbonate will fluctuate in the range of 92,020 - 95,020 [10]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [14]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week's production was 21,545 tons, up 0.05% week - on - week. October 2025 production was 92,260 tons, predicted next - month production is 92,080 tons (down 0.19%). October import was 22,000 tons, predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons (up 22.73%) [8][10]. - **Demand**: Last week, lithium iron phosphate sample enterprise inventory was 104,738 tons (down 0.92%), ternary material sample enterprise inventory was 19,211 tons (down 1.74%). Next - month demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be depleted [8]. - **Cost**: Purchased lithium spodumene concentrate cost is 87,553 yuan/ton (up 2.42% daily), loss of 1,376 yuan/ton. Purchased lithium mica cost is 91,635 yuan/ton (up 2.85% daily), loss of 7,641 yuan/ton. Salt lake end cost is 31,477 yuan/ton, with strong production motivation [9]. - **Other Factors**: On November 18, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 87,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 6,120 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The overall inventory was 120,472 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the 01 contract price closed above the MA20. The net short position of the main contract decreased [11]. - **Leverage and Risks**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the high and limited - decline supply at the ore/salt lake end [12][13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Data**: The futures closing prices of various contracts decreased, with the 01 contract down 1,680 yuan (-1.76%). The basis of various contracts increased, with the 01 contract basis increasing by 2,930 yuan (-32.38%). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 342 lots (-1.27%). The price of lithium spodumene (6%) increased by 32 US dollars/ton (3.13%), and the price of lithium mica concentrate (2.5%) increased by 125 yuan/ton (5.34%) [17]. - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate was 75.34%, unchanged. The daily production cost of lithium spodumene increased by 2,071 yuan/ton (2.42%), and the monthly processing cost decreased by 170 yuan/ton (-0.83%). The monthly production of lithium carbonate in October was 92,260 tons, a 5.73% increase [19]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 5.88%, and the monthly production increased by 19,800 tons (6.35%). The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate increased by 10.54%, and the monthly export increased by 1,091,564 kilograms (54.57%) [19].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年11月19日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为78.51%，环比减少0.03个百分点；电石法企业产量34.355万吨，环比减少0.52%,乙烯法企业产 量13.491万吨，环比减少8.08%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.54%，环比减少0.06个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.96%，环比减少0.64个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为40.6%，环比增加.2个百分 点，高于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The export data of textile and clothing in October was poor. Although a temporary agreement was reached in the Sino-US negotiations and the subsequent export tariffs to the US were reduced by 10% compared to the previous period, the peak season for foreign trade orders has passed. Zhengmian is short-term bearish and oscillating downward, but with cost support, the downward space is limited. Currently, it is an opportunity for medium and long-term long orders to layout far-month contracts on dips [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant content provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC November report, the production in the 25/26 season is 25.4 million tons, and the consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA November report shows that the production in the 25/26 season is 26.145 million tons, the consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. In October, the export of textile and clothing was $22.62 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 12.63%. In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; and imported 140,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year-on-year increase of 16.7%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's November forecast for the 25/26 season, the production is 6.6 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.45 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,789 yuan, and the basis is 1,394 yuan (for the 01 contract), with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in November of the 25/26 season to be 8.45 million tons, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is flat, and the K-line is below the 20-day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, and the net short position is increasing, with the main trend being bearish [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the total global production is expected to be 26.145 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.74 million tons; the total consumption is expected to be 25.883 million tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 35,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 16.532 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 315,000 tons [13]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: In the 25/26 season, the global cotton production is expected to be 25.39956 million tons, the consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons [16]. - **China Cotton Supply and Demand Forecast**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the 25/26 season, China's cotton production is expected to be 6.6 million tons, the import is 1.4 million tons, the consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.45 million tons [5][17]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.