交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.4%，比上月上升0.1个百分 点，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全 面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜企业开工小幅回升， 整体需求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等受旺季临近影响需求增加。当前LL交割品现货价7230（- 20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-22，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存48.7万吨（-7.8），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月3日 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒6月18日消息， 世界金属统计局( WBMS )公布的最新数据 报告显示，2025年4月, 全球锌板产量为115.3万吨，消费量为113.02万吨, 供应过剩2.27万吨。1-4月，全球锌板产量为445.14万吨,消费量为450.79 万吨，供应短缺5.65万吨。4月,全球锌板产量为107.22万吨。1-4月，全球 锌矿产量为404.06万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22170，基差-155；偏空。 3、库存：9月2日LME锌库存较上日减少275吨至55600吨，9月2日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加998吨至38955吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2510：震 荡盘整。 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘回落，20均线有支撑。产业链上，矿价继续维稳，镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺。 不锈钢库存小幅回落，接下来要期待金九银十能否提振消费，去库存。新能源汽车产销数据较好，但三 元电池装车量同比下降，总体需求提振受限。中长线过剩格局不变。偏空 2、基差：现货124050，基差1520，偏多 3、库存：LME库存210234，+390，上交所仓单21956，+183，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2510：震荡运行，下方成本线有支撑。 不锈钢 每日观点 1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价格稳定，海运费坚挺，镍 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Coking Coal**: The supply has decreased significantly due to strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts. The total sample inventory has decreased by 28.1 tons compared to last week. Considering factors such as the decline in steel prices, the narrowing of steel mill profits, and the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke**: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is still restricted, and the supply is at a low level. As the raw material arrival situation of downstream steel mills has improved, the procurement rhythm of coke has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased. It is expected that the supply will increase after the parade, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Daily Views** - **Coking Coal** - **Fundamentals**: Strict safety and environmental inspections in Shanxi before major events have led to a significant reduction in supply. The market sentiment has weakened, with a strong atmosphere of price cuts, and the market is mostly in a wait - and - see state [3]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1170, with a basis of - 57.5, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures [3]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 1890.7 tons, a decrease of 28.1 tons compared to last week [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coking coal is short, and the short position has decreased [4]. - **Expectation**: The decline in steel prices and the narrowing of steel mill profits have led to a low acceptance of high - priced coal by coking and steel enterprises. With the start of blast furnace production restrictions in Tangshan, it is expected that the price of coking coal will remain stable in the short term [3]. - **Coke** - **Fundamentals**: Affected by the parade, the production of coking enterprises in some areas is restricted, and the supply is at a low level. The procurement rhythm of downstream steel mills has slowed down, and the inventory of some coking enterprises has slightly increased [8]. - **Basis**: The spot market price is 1600, with a basis of 3.5, indicating that the spot is at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The total sample inventory is 864.2 tons, a decrease of 17.9 tons compared to last week [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position of coke is short, and the short position has increased [8]. - **Expectation**: After the parade, the supply is expected to increase, and the overall supply - demand of coke will tend to be loose, with the price remaining stable in the short term [8]. **Factors Affecting Coking Coal** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the difficulty in increasing supply [6]. - **Negative Factors**: The slowdown in the procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and the weakness of steel prices [6]. **Factors Affecting Coke** - **Positive Factors**: The increase in hot metal production and the synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [10]. - **Negative Factors**: The squeeze on the profit space of steel mills and the partial overdraft of replenishment demand [10]. **Inventory** - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory is 282.1 tons, a decrease of 10.2 tons compared to last week; the coke port inventory is 215.1 tons, an increase of 17 tons compared to last week [22]. - **Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises is 844.1 tons, an increase of 2.9 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 46.5 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons compared to last week [27]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons compared to last week; the coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons compared to last week [32]. **Other Data** - **Coking Oven Capacity Utilization**: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [45]. - **Average Profit per Ton of Coke**: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [49].

Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 - Report Type: Steel Futures Morning Report - Covered Products: Rebar (Threaded Steel) and Hot-Rolled Coil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - **Rebar**: Overall, the market is complex with mixed signals. The demand is weak, the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, but there are factors like low production and inventory, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. It is recommended to approach with a high - level oscillation mindset [2][3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand situation has weakened, exports are blocked, but there are also positive factors such as acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. A high - level oscillation approach is also suggested [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Demand shows no improvement, downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The inventory is at a low level with a slight decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3240, and the basis is 123, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.5377 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, considered neutral [2] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [2] Factors - **Positive**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, considered neutral [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3350, and the basis is 52, a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.8578 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, considered neutral [6] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and the short position is increasing [6] - **Expectation**: The market supply - demand has weakened, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [6] Factors - **Positive**: Acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货5990，基差391（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 3、库存：截至7月 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term. The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, and downstream phased restocking has led to the reduction of glass factory inventories, but the sustainability of subsequent inventory reduction is questionable. It is expected that glass will mainly operate in a wide - range shock mode [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - The glass production profit has declined, the industry cold - repair has slowed down, and the start - up rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. The downstream deep - processing orders are less than the same period in previous years, and the real estate terminal demand is weak [2]. - The basis of float glass is - 78 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot [2]. - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2]. - The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward [2]. - The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Likely to Rise**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Likely to Fall**: The real estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4]. 3.3 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the previous value. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - plate glass is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The main basis is - 78 yuan, a decrease of 3.70% from the previous value [6]. 3.4 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - plate in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1056 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.5 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost**: The glass production profit has declined [2]. - **Supply**: The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 223, with a start - up rate of 75.49%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low in the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 159,600 tons, and the production capacity is at the lowest level in the same period in history and has stabilized and rebounded [21][23]. - **Demand**: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [27]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.566 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.64% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月3日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货小幅收跌，现货市场商谈氛围一般，现货基差偏弱，贸易商商谈为主，零星聚酯工厂买盘。本周及下 周货在01贴水48~50有成交，价格商谈区间在4710~4750附近。9月中下及下旬在01-45~50有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-49。 中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空增 偏空 6、预期：PTA装置检修效果不及预期，现货市场流通性尚可，现货基差走弱，价格则跟随成本端震荡，加工差虽较低点略有改 善，但仍处于偏低水平，关注恒力惠州装置检修情况，以及后续上下游装置变动。 2、基差：现货4727，01合约基差-29， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The overnight attack on an oil tanker by the Houthi armed forces and the US considering giving up diplomatic efforts to promote a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine have raised geopolitical concerns, stimulating oil prices to rise. However, as the summer peak - season demand ends, there is pressure on the upside. In the short term, oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with an expected range of 485 - 495 for the short - term, and long - term long positions are recommended to be held [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips - For crude oil 2510, the fundamentals are neutral due to factors like US diplomatic considerations, Houthi armed attacks, and India's oil imports. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is positive. Inventory data presents a neutral situation. The 20 - day moving average is downward with the price below it, which is negative. As of August 26, the WTI crude oil main - contract long positions decreased while Brent crude oil long positions increased, overall neutral [3]. 2. Recent News - Oil traders expect OPEC+ to keep crude oil production unchanged at the upcoming meeting. OPEC+ over - production, Asian fuel consumption slowdown, and supply surges in the US, Brazil, and Canada have led to an oil glut, causing a 9% drop in oil prices this year. Brent crude futures traded near $68 per barrel on Monday [5]. - On September 1, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces attacked the "Scarlet Ray" oil tanker in the Red Sea. After the Israeli military's air - strike on Sanaa on August 28, the Houthi armed forces vowed to retaliate and escalate attacks on Israel [5]. - Amid deteriorating relations with the US, Modi reaffirmed India's partnership with Russia. Modi and Putin discussed bilateral cooperation in various fields and the Ukraine conflict. Modi also called for peace with Zelensky [5]. 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Likely Positive Factors**: US secondary sanctions on Russian energy exports; extension of the Sino - US tariff exemption period [6]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: A possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine; continued tension in US trade relations with other economies [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing while trade tariff risks are rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season ends [6]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Quotes**: On September 1, compared with the previous day, Brent crude oil decreased by $0.50 (- 0.74%), WTI crude oil decreased by $0.59 (- 0.91%), SC crude oil increased by 1.80, and Oman crude oil remained unchanged [7]. - **Spot Quotes**: Compared with the previous day, UK Brent increased by $0.57 (0.84%), WTI decreased by $0.59 (- 0.91%), Oman crude oil increased by $0.75 (1.07%), Shengli crude oil increased by $0.86 (1.32%), and Dubai crude oil increased by $0.64 (0.91%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: As of August 22, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 974,000 barrels, the EIA inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels, and the Cushing area inventory decreased by 838,000 barrels. As of September 1, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory was 5.721 million barrels, unchanged [3]. 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of August 26, the net long positions of WTI crude oil funds were 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 compared with August 19 [17]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of August 26, the net long positions of Brent crude oil funds were 109,472, a decrease of 10,737 compared with August 19 [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side production scheduling has increased and is near the historical average level, the demand recovery is at a low level, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8355 - 8635 for the 2511 contract [3][6]. - For polysilicon, the short - term supply side production scheduling has decreased and is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery in silicon wafer, battery cell, and component production. The cost support has weakened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 51200 - 53370 for the 2511 contract [7][8][9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 90,000 tons, a 2.27% increase from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 82,000 tons, a 3.80% increase from the previous week. The demand has increased, especially in polysilicon [6]. - Inventory: The silicon inventory is 213,000 tons, at a low level. The organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons, at a high level. The aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 54,600 tons, at a high level [6]. - Cost: The sample oxygen - blown 553 production in Xinjiang has a loss of 3,254 yuan/ton, and the cost support has weakened during the wet season [6]. - Basis: On September 1st, the spot price of non - oxygen - blown silicon in East China was 8,950 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 455 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price [6]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has increased [6]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,000 tons, a 6.52% increase from the previous week. The production scheduling for September is expected to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: The silicon wafer production last week was 13.31GW, a 8.29% increase from the previous week. The battery cell and component production also showed different degrees of increase, with the component production in a profitable state [9]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon materials in the industry is 35,570 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 1st, the price of N - type dense materials was 48,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 3,285 yuan/ton, with the spot price lower than the futures price [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 213,000 tons, a 14.45% decrease from the previous week, at a historical low [9]. - Disk: The MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above the MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has increased [9]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts showed an upward trend, with the price increase ranging from 0.79% to 1.25%. The weekly social inventory decreased by 0.37%, and the weekly sample enterprise inventory decreased by 0.91%. The weekly production of sample enterprises increased by 5.51% [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts also showed an upward trend, with the price increase ranging from 0.88% to 5.51%. The weekly silicon wafer production increased by 5.74%, and the weekly inventory of photovoltaic cells in external sales factories increased by 11.10% [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - The DMC daily capacity utilization rate was 70.59%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. The DMC weekly production showed a decreasing trend, and the DMC price remained stable [41]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - The monthly production of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 4.28%, and the monthly production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots increased by 1.63%. The weekly opening rate of primary aluminum alloy was at a low level [53]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - The polysilicon industry cost showed a downward trend. The monthly production of polysilicon decreased, and the monthly demand also decreased. The monthly supply - demand balance showed a surplus in most months [58][61].