交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 黄金 利多： 利空： 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：美国10月非农不发布，11月非农将在12月美联储会议下公布，金价冲高 回落；美国三大股指小幅收涨，欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体上 涨，10年期美债收益率涨2.52个基点报4.137%；美元指数涨0.53%报100.12，离岸人 民币对美元小幅贬值报7.1183；COMEX黄金期货涨0.29%报4078.30美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货937，现货934.7，基差-2.3，现货贴水期货；中性 3、库存：黄金期货仓单90426千克，增加810千克；偏空 4 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: November 20, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] LLDPE Analysis Fundamental Factors - In October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity [4]. - On October 30, China and the US leaders met, with the US canceling some restrictions on Chinese goods and suspending the 301 investigation in maritime and logistics sectors for one year, and China adjusting counter - measures accordingly [4]. - OPEC+ changed the crude oil market from supply - short to supply - surplus on November 12, leading to a drop in oil prices [4]. - The peak season demand for agricultural films continues, but it has started to decline in some areas, while other film types have mainly rigid demand. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery product is 6880 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. Other Factors - The basis of LLDPE 2601 contract is 47, with a premium ratio of 0.7%, which is bullish [4]. - The comprehensive PE inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), which is bearish [4]. - The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. Expectation - The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate. With oversupply in fundamentals, the peak - season demand for agricultural films continues but declines in some areas, and the industrial inventory is moderately high [4]. LLDPE利多and利空 - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Sino - US talks reaching a phased easing [5]. - Bearish factors: Weaker demand year - on - year; More new production capacity coming on stream in the fourth quarter [5]. PP Analysis Fundamental Factors - Similar to LLDPE, in October, the official PMI was 49, down 0.8 points from the previous month, and there were Sino - US talks and OPEC+ oil market adjustment [6]. - The peak season for plastic weaving is nearing an end, while the demand for pipes is picking up. The current spot price of PP delivery product is 6420 (-40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6]. Other Factors - The basis of PP 2601 contract is - 14, with a premium ratio of - 0.2%, which is neutral [6]. - The comprehensive PP inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), which is neutral [6]. - The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6]. - The net short position of the PP main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. Expectation - The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate, with oversupply in fundamentals, the plastic - weaving peak season nearing an end, and the pipe demand picking up, and the industrial inventory being moderately high [6]. PP利多and利空 - Bullish factors: New sanctions on Russian oil leading to an oil price rebound; Sino - US talks reaching a phased easing [7]. - Bearish factors: Weaker demand year - on - year; More new production capacity coming on stream in the fourth quarter [7]. Market Data LLDPE Market Data - Spot prices: The spot delivery product price is 6880 (-20), LL import US dollars price is 797 (0), LL import conversion price is 6970 (1), and the LL import price difference is - 90 (-21) [8]. - Futures prices: The 01 contract price is 6833 (48), the basis is 47 (-68), and prices of other contracts (L05, L09) also have corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 12017 (0), the PE comprehensive factory warehouse inventory is 554,000 tons (-25,000), and the PE social inventory is 486,000 tons (-14,000) [8]. PP Market Data - Spot prices: The spot delivery product price is 6420 (-40), PP import US dollars price is 765 (0), PP import conversion price is 6696 (1), and the PP import price difference is - 276 (-41) [8]. - Futures prices: The 01 contract price is 6434 (42), the basis is - 14 (-82), and prices of other contracts (PP05, PP09) also have corresponding changes [8]. - Inventory data: The warehouse receipt is 15762 (1141), the PP comprehensive factory warehouse inventory is 594,000 tons (-26,000), and the PP social inventory is 321,000 tons (-20,000) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets Polyethylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, apparent consumption, etc. of polyethylene have shown different trends. For example, the capacity increased from 1869.5 in 2018 to 3584.5 in 2024, with corresponding changes in production, net import, and consumption [13]. Polypropylene Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, the capacity, production, net import, apparent consumption, etc. of polypropylene have also changed. For example, the capacity increased from 2245.5 in 2018 to 4418.5 in 2024, with corresponding changes in production, net import, and consumption [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the short - term spot price is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to device changes [5]. - For MEG, the medium - to long - term inventory build - up pressure still exists. In the short term, the price center of gravity is expected to operate weakly, with continuous upward pressure [7]. 3. Summaries According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day Review - No specific review content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - No specific tip content provided 3.3 Today's Focus - No specific focus content provided 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA**: The previous day's futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was fair, the spot basis slightly strengthened, and the far - month basis increased. The mainstream spot basis today is 01 - 70. The PTA factory inventory is 3.97 days, a decrease of 0.12 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions have turned from net short to net long [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Wednesday, the price center of gravity of ethylene glycol was weakly adjusted, and the market trading was fair. The spot basis rebounded to a premium of 28 - 29 yuan/ton over the 01 contract at the end of the session. The total inventory in East China is 62.2 tons, an increase of 5.7 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main positions are net short, and the short positions have increased [7]. 3.5 Price - The price data of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on November 19 and 18, 2025, are given, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, and processing fees [12]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - The inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester products in different periods from 2021 - 2025 are presented, such as the available days of in - factory inventory and port inventory [40][42][45]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - The operating rate data of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester, and textile enterprises in the polyester industry chain from 2021 - 2025 are provided [52][54][56][57]. 3.8 Profit - The profit data of PTA, MEG, and polyester products from 2022 - 2025 are given, including processing fees and production gross profits [58][61][63][65][66][68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded again, while the comprehensive inventory has declined. Agricultural demand is weak in the short - term, and industrial demand is moderately weak. The operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine are both at relatively low levels compared to the same period. With the commissioning of new production capacities such as Xinjiang Zhongneng in the middle of the month, the supply - side pressure has increased again. The large price difference between domestic and international markets for exports has improved the export situation compared to the previous period, boosting the sentiment of the futures market. Overall, the domestic urea market remains in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea futures main contract will show a volatile trend today [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are rising, inventory is falling. Agricultural demand is short - term weak, industrial demand is moderately weak. New capacity commissioning increases supply pressure. Export improvement boosts market sentiment. Domestic market is oversupplied, and the spot price of delivery product is 1630 (+20), with neutral fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is - 33, and the premium/discount ratio is - 2.0%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 156.6 million tons (-9.2), which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [4]. - **Expectation**: Considering the moderately weak industrial demand, weak agricultural demand, improved export situation, and obvious domestic oversupply, the UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Urea - From 2018 to 2025E, the urea production capacity has been increasing year by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, and other indicators have also shown corresponding changes over the years [9]. Spot and Futures Market Data - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of the delivery product is 1630 (+20), Shandong spot price is 1630 (+20), Henan spot price is 1630 (0), and FOB China price is 2844 [6]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the 01 contract is 1663 (+1), UR05 is 1735 (-1), and UR09 is 1744 (-3). The basis of the 01 contract is - 33 (+19) [6]. - **Inventory Data**: The number of warehouse receipts is 7183 (0), UR comprehensive inventory is 156.6 million tons (-9.2), UR manufacturer inventory is 148.4 million tons, and UR port inventory is 8.2 million tons [6]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The improvement of export situation [5]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic market oversupply and new capacity commissioning [5]. - **Main Logic**: International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年11月20日 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21545吨，环比增长0.05%,高于历史同期平均水平 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104738吨，环比减少0.92%,上周三元材 料样本企业库存为19211吨，环比减少1.74%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为89477元/吨，日环比增长2.20%,生产所得为- 1822元/吨，有所亏损；外购锂云母成本为94173元/吨，日环比增长2.77%,生产所 得为-8745元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本接近矿石端成本，排产积极性一般； 盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31477元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于矿石端，盈利空间充 足，排产动 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a neutral rating to the PVC industry [9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply pressure of PVC is strong. The domestic demand recovery is sluggish, and the current demand may remain weak. The overall inventory is at a neutral level. The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4467 - 4517 [7][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 78.51%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide enterprises was 343,550 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, and that of ethylene enterprises was 134,910 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.08%. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase slightly next week [3][5] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 49.54%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream profiles was 36.96%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.64 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream pipes was 40.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.2 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream films was 71.07%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points, higher than the historical average. The operating rate of downstream paste resin was 78.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and the domestic PVC export price is competitive. The current demand may remain weak [3][5] - **Cost Side**: The profit of calcium carbide method was - 819.69 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 6.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene method was - 491 yuan/ton, with the loss increasing by 5.50% month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2137.95 yuan/ton, with the profit remaining unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6] - **Basis**: On November 19th, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 38 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. It is neutral [7] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory was 322,350 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.65%. The calcium carbide factory inventory was 242,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.99%. The ethylene factory inventory was 79,450 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.64%. The social inventory was 532,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.45%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.4 days, a month - on - month decrease of 1.81% [7] - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20. It is bearish [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The cost of calcium carbide method and ethylene method is weakening. The overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure has decreased this week, and the scheduled production is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain weak. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4467 - 4517 [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the previous day's PVC market, including prices, spreads, inventory, and downstream operating rates of different types of PVC [14][15] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend chart of the PVC futures basis, showing the relationship between the spot price and the futures price [17][18] 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the historical trend chart of the main contract spreads of PVC futures, including 1 - 9 spreads and 5 - 9 spreads [23][24] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Products - **Lancoke**: The report shows the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke [26][27] - **Calcium Carbide**: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [29][30] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: The report shows the price, production, and inventory trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31][32] - **Caustic Soda**: The report presents the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, and inventory trends of caustic soda [33][34][36] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily output, maintenance volume, and production trends of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [38][39][41] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents the sales volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rate and profit - cost - production - consumption trends of different downstream products of PVC [43][46][47] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide factory inventory, ethylene factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [54][55] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - The report presents the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of ethylene method, and import spread of vinyl chloride [56][57] 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [59][60]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 主要逻辑：供应端来看，供给压力仍处高位；需求端来看，复苏乏力。 主要风险点：原油价格的走势变化;；沥青焦化物利润差走势。 4 一、沥青行情概览 表1. 昨日行情概览 每日观点 | | | 供给端来看 根据隆众 ， | 2025年11月份地炼沥青总计划排产量为131 2万吨 ， . ， | 环比增 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 幅18 2% 同比降幅6 . , . | 5% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为30 8006% 。 . ， | 环比减少 | | | | 1 08个百分点 ， . | 全国样本企业出货21 3 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年11月20日 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.4万吨，环比增长2.44%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为26.7万吨，处于低位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为56300吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为-156元/吨，处于亏 损状态，其综合开工率为72.18%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.21万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为410元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为669.5元/吨，再生铝开工率为60.6%，环比增加2.54%,处 于高位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧5 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花早报——2025年11月20日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 棉花： 1、基本面：ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度 产量2614.5万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口 222.62亿美元，同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14 万吨，同比增加16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨， 期末库存845万吨。中性。 2、基差：现货3128b全国均价14779，基差1294（01合约 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1017 yuan/ton to 1009 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.79%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass dropped from 1016 yuan/ton to 1000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57%. The main basis increased from - 1 yuan/ton to - 9 yuan/ton, a rise of 800.00% [5]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1000 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton from the previous day [10]. Fundamental - Cost Side - The production profit of glass has weak recovery, and the supply is at a historically low level in the same period. The national floating glass production line has 222 in operation, with an operating rate of 75%, and the daily melting volume is 15.91 tons, both at historically low levels in the same period [2][21][23]. Fundamental - Demand Side - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of floating glass was 470.82 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the orders of glass deep - processing enterprises are at a historically low level in the same period, and the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic [2][26]. Fundamental - Inventory Side - The inventory of national floating glass enterprises is 63.247 million weight - boxes, an increase of 0.18% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [2][39]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2017 to 2024E, the production and consumption of floating glass have fluctuated. For example, in 2024E, the production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, with a growth rate of 3.94%, and the consumption is 53.1 million tons, with a decline rate of 1.15% [40]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and environmental protection policy, the floating glass industry has seen capacity clearance, such as the "coal - to - gas" conversion in the Shahe area and industry cold - repair, resulting in production losses [3]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The glass supply has stabilized and rebounded at a low level, the downstream's phased replenishment has ended, and the glass factory's inventory has increased. The "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [3][4].