Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: The release of US PCE data has led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, and significant position - building has pushed up the gold price. Although the increase in positions is difficult to maintain at a high level, the gold price is expected to be strong but with a narrowing increase. The premium of Shanghai Gold has converged to - 0.9 yuan/gram [4]. - **Silver**: The US PCE data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and combined with tariff concerns, the silver price has risen significantly. With the possibility of increased silver tariffs and strong capital promotion, the silver price is expected to remain strong [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US PCE data increased interest - rate cut expectations, large - scale position - building pushed up the gold price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.84% to $3545.8 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US PCE data and tariff concerns led to a significant rise in the silver price. The US stock market was closed, European stock indexes rose slightly, the US dollar index fell 0.18% to 97.68 [6]. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis of gold is - 3.91, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures increased by 120 kg to 39744 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, and the main long position increased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis of silver is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 11231 kg to 1207227 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above it; the main net position is long, but the main long position decreased [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - 09:30: Speech by the Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan in Hokkaido - Tuesday and Wednesday: Vietnam on holiday - 17:00: Eurozone's preliminary CPI for August - 19:30: Participation of an ECB Executive Board member in the 2025 ECB Legal Conference - 20:45: Speech by an ECB Governing Council member at a payment - related event - 21:45: Final value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI for August - 22:00: US ISM Manufacturing Index for August and construction spending for July [15] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Gold**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. The verification between the expected and actual policies of the new US government continues, and the gold price sentiment is high and still prone to rise [10]. - **Silver**: After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil. The inflation expectation has shifted to an economic recession expectation, and the silver price still mainly follows the gold price. Tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the increase in the silver price may expand [13]. 3.5 Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Gold on September 1, 2025, was 230,052, an increase of 8.07% from August 31; the short - position volume was 67,515, an increase of 13.39%; the net position was 162,537, an increase of 6.00% [30]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai Silver on September 1, 2025, was 367,335, an increase of 10.49% from August 29; the short - position volume was 279,207, an increase of 11.74%; the net position was 88,128, an increase of 6.69% [31].

2025-09-02投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 证券代码：839979 油脂早报 每日观点 每日观点 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货9404，基差20，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日棕榈油港口库存58万吨，前值57万吨，环比+1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多翻空。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内对加菜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has arrived, and there are significant differences in the market. Considering that it's just the beginning of the peak season, even if short - term orders are not ideal, there is still time, so the possibility of a sharp decline is relatively small. Conversely, an upward trend requires positive news to trigger. The short - sellers are waiting for time, while the long - sellers are waiting for news. The main 01 contract on the futures market continues to fluctuate around 14,000 [5]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review No relevant content provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: According to the ICAC August report, the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season is 25.9 million tons, and consumption is 25.6 million tons. The USDA August report shows that the production is 25.392 million tons, consumption is 25.688 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.093 million tons. In July, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.77 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. China imported 50,000 tons of cotton in July, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and imported 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's August forecast for the 2025/26 season, production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The overall situation is neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,479 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,454 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's forecast for China's ending cotton inventory in the 2025/26 season in August is 8.23 million tons, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the K - line is near the 20 - day moving average, showing a neutral trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The overall position is bullish, but the net long position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is a bullish signal [6]. - **Positive Factors**: The previous reduction of mutual tariffs between China and the United States and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory. There is an increasing expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [7]. - **Negative Factors**: The trade negotiations have been postponed, and the current export tariffs to the United States are relatively high. Overall, foreign trade orders have declined, and inventory has increased. A large amount of new cotton is about to be listed [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus No relevant content provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: The total global cotton production in the 2024/25 season (August estimate) is 25.392 million tons, a decrease of 391,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2%. Total consumption is 25.688 million tons, a decrease of 30,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. The ending inventory is 16.093 million tons, a decrease of 742,000 tons from July, and a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, global production is 25.9 million tons, an increase of 400,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; consumption is 25.6 million tons, basically unchanged year - on - year; the ending inventory is 17.1 million tons, an increase of 260,000 tons (1.6%) year - on - year; the global trade volume is 9.7 million tons, an increase of 360,000 tons (3.9%) year - on - year. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation, reflecting the expectation of supply - demand balance [13]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast for China**: For the 2025/26 season, the estimated production is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons [15]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of soda ash shows strong supply and weak demand. With few alkali plant overhauls, supply remains at a high level. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass is stable, while that of photovoltaic glass has declined, leading to weaker terminal demand. The inventory of soda ash plants is at a historical high. Short - term soda ash is expected to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The main logic is that the supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand has declined, and inventory is at a high level in the same period. The pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract was 1,271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.93% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.07%. The main basis was - 91 yuan/ton, with no change [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei was 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous day [12]. - The profit of heavy soda ash by the North China ammonia - alkali method was - 48.10 yuan/ton, and that by the East China co - production method was - 58 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has recovered from a historical low [15]. - The weekly industry operating rate of soda ash was 82.47%, showing a seasonal decline. The weekly output of soda ash was 71.91 tons, including 38.32 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [18][20]. - From 2023 to 2025, there has been a large - scale expansion of soda ash production capacity, with new capacities of 640 tons in 2023, 180 tons in 2024, and a planned new capacity of 750 tons in 2025 (with an actual planned production of 100 tons) [22]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - The weekly production - sales rate of soda ash was 97.80% [25]. - The daily melting volume of national float glass was 15.96 tons, and the operating rate was 75.49%, showing stability [28]. - The price of photovoltaic glass has continued to decline. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the daily melting volume in production has continued a significant downward trend [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national in - plant inventory of soda ash was 1.8675 million tons, a decrease of 2.27% from the previous week, and the inventory was above the five - year average [37]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective production capacity, output, operating rate, import, export, net import, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates of various indicators in different years [38]. Influencing Factors - Positive factors: The peak season of summer overhauls is coming, and production will decline [3]. - Negative factors: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launching plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historical high in the same period. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has cut production, leading to weaker demand for soda ash. The positive sentiment of the "anti - involution" policy has faded [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年9月2日 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。Conab： 巴西中南部25/26榨季糖产量预计4060万吨，比之前预估下调3.1%。2025年7月底，24/25年度本期 制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨；全国累计销糖954.98万吨；销糖率85.6%。2025年7月中国进口食 糖74万吨，同比增加32万吨；进口糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.98万吨，同比减少6.85万吨。中性。 2、基差：柳州现货6000，基差391（01合约），升水期货；偏多。 6、预期：随着巴西产量向下调整，全球供需基本面利空有所减弱。郑糖01目前价格接近配额外进 口糖价，除非外糖跌破16美分，否则郑糖进一步下跌空间有限。郑糖01日内5580-5640区间震荡。 3、库存：截至7月底24/25榨季工业库存161万吨；偏多。 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线下方，偏空。 5、主力持仓：持仓偏空，净持 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-2） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：重大活动临近，近期主产地多有新增停产煤矿出现，整体供应稍显紧张。下游焦企多维持 按需补库，中间环节贸易商及洗煤厂放缓采购，积极出货为主，部分高价煤矿签单困难，报价出现适当 回调，随着市场看降情绪渐起，双焦市场情绪总体降温；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差-51.5；现货贴水期货；偏多 焦煤 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：近日钢价震荡下行，钢厂利润收缩，叠加盘面下跌，下游终端采购情绪相对转弱，以刚需采 购为主，市场 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年9月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 3、库存：9月1日LME锌库存较上日减少625吨至55875吨，9月1日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日增加0吨至37957吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之下,20日均线向下；偏空。 5、主力持仓：主力净多头，多减；偏多。 6、预期：LME库存仓单继续减少；上期所仓单保持高位；沪锌ZN2510：震 荡走弱。 9月1日期货交易所锌期货行情 | 交割月份 | 前结镇 | 今开盘 | 優高价 | 盟低价 | 收盘价 | 结算参考价 | 涨跌1 | 涨跌2 | 成交手 | 成交额 | 持合手/变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-9-2 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，8月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.4%，比上月上升0.1个百分 点，7 月出口 3217.8 亿美元，同比增 7.2%。8月20日，彭博社报道，针对石化与炼油行业的全 面改革方案正在酝酿，拟解决长期产能过剩，预计9月出台。供需端，农膜企业开工小幅回升， 整体需求仍较往年偏弱，其余包装膜等受旺季临近影响需求增加。当前LL交割品现货价7250（- 20），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-20，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存48.7万吨（-7.8），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年9月2日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14950，基差-910 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比减少，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，短多交易 23年全乳胶，不可用于交割，9月1日现货价格上涨 中性 现货价格 青岛保税区美元报价 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The urea market is currently in a state of overall supply exceeding demand in China, with high daily production, high inventory, and limited domestic demand. However, international urea prices are strong, and export profits are still high, but export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. It is expected that the UR contract will fluctuate today [4]. - The main influencing factors include the strength of international prices and the marginal changes in domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change in export policies [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has recently oscillated and declined. Previously, the market was affected by rumors of the liberalization of urea exports, causing the futures price to rise, but then market sentiment subsided. Currently, daily production and the operating rate are still at relatively high levels, and inventory is generally high. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine in industrial demand are at a medium level, and agricultural demand is limited. The overall supply of urea in China still significantly exceeds demand, export profits are still strong, and export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (-20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 47, with a premium - discount ratio of 2.6%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract has flattened, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract has increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The main urea contract is oscillating. International urea prices are strong, export policies have not been liberalized beyond expectations, and the overall supply in China still significantly exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will oscillate today [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors are the high operating rate and daily production, and weak domestic demand [5]. Spot, Futures, and Inventory Data | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot Market** | The spot price of the delivery product is 1790 (-20), Shandong's spot price is 1790 (-20), Henan's spot price is 1810 (-10), and FOB China is 3031 [6]. | | **Futures Market** | The price of the 01 contract is 1743 (-3), the basis is 47 (-17), the price of the UR05 contract is 1784 (-7), and the price of the UR09 contract is 1670 (-9) [6]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 7205 (+732), the comprehensive UR inventory is 1.402 million tons (-35,000 tons), the UR manufacturer's inventory is 859,000 tons (-37,000 tons), and the UR port inventory is 543,000 tons (+2,000 tons) [6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | End - of - Period Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 22.455 billion | - | 19.5681 billion | 4.4838 billion | 18.6% | 24.0519 billion | 236.6 million | 24.0519 billion | - | | 2019 | - | 24.455 billion | 8.9% | 22.4 billion | 4.8794 billion | 17.9% | 27.2794 billion | 378.6 million | 27.1374 billion | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 28.255 billion | 15.5% | 25.8098 billion | 6.1912 billion | 19.3% | 32.001 billion | 378.3 million | 32.0013 billion | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 31.485 billion | 11.4% | 29.2799 billion | 3.5241 billion | 10.7% | 32.804 billion | 357.2 million | 32.8251 billion | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 34.135 billion | 8.4% | 29.6546 billion | 3.3537 billion | 10.2% | 33.0083 billion | 446.2 million | 32.9193 billion | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 38.935 billion | 14.1% | 31.9359 billion | 2.9313 billion | 8.4% | 34.8672 billion | 446.5 million | 34.8669 billion | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 44.185 billion | 13.5% | 34.25 billion | 3.6 billion | 9.5% | 37.85 billion | 514 million | 37.7825 billion | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 49.06 billion | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]