1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's production at 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The cost of 6% concentrate CIF has a daily increase but is lower than the historical average. The lithium carbonate 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 74,820 - 76,580. [9] - The overall situation shows a pattern of strong supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,066 tons, a 2.08% week - on - week increase. In September 2025, the production was 87,260 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 89,890 tons, a 3.01% increase. The import volume in September was 20,000 tons, and it is predicted to be 22,000 tons next month, a 10% increase. [8][9] - **Demand - side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 102,818 tons, a 0.95% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,963 tons, a 0.64% week - on - week increase. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced. [8][9] - **Cost - side**: The daily price of 6% concentrate CIF has increased, but it is lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 74,778 yuan/ton, a 0.45% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 1,852 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lepidolite is 77,485 yuan/ton, unchanged daily, resulting in a loss of 6,553 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. [9][11] - **Market Indicators**: On October 20, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 1,940 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price was at a discount to the futures price. The MA20 of the market was upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above the MA20. The net position of the main players was short, and the short position increased. [11] - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery. [12][13] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products showed different degrees of change. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) increased from 846 to 851 dollars/ton, a 0.59% increase; the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased from 73,350 to 74,000 yuan/ton, a 0.89% increase. [16] - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 74.39%, a 4.32% increase. The monthly production of lithium carbonate in September was 87,260 tons, a 2.37% increase. The production of lithium concentrate, lepidolite, salt - lake lithium, and recycled lithium all showed different trends. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32%, and the monthly import volume of lithium carbonate decreased by 10.30%. [18][19] - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rates and production of lithium iron phosphate, lithium iron phosphate lithium, ternary precursors, ternary materials, and other products all increased to varying degrees. The monthly total loading volume of power batteries increased by 21.60%, with the loading volume of lithium iron phosphate batteries increasing by 26.61% and the loading volume of ternary batteries increasing by 20.54%. The production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased, with production increasing by 16.25% and sales increasing by 14.98%. [18][19] - **Inventory Data**: The total weekly inventory of lithium carbonate was 132,658 tons, a 1.59% decrease. The inventory of smelters decreased by 1.34%, the inventory of downstream enterprises decreased by 3.40%, and the inventory of other sources increased by 0.87%. [18][19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market shows a complex situation with both positive and negative factors. On the one hand, cost increases provide support, and there are plans for manufacturers to halt production or reduce output. On the other hand, the post - holiday demand recovery is slow, and there is an imbalance between supply and demand in the downstream polysilicon market, with supply exceeding demand. The overall downward trend is difficult to change [10][11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoints Industrial Silicon - **Supply**: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 99,000 tons, a 2.06% increase from the previous week [6]. - **Demand**: Last week, the industrial silicon demand was 74,000 tons, a 9.75% decrease from the previous week, and demand remained sluggish. Polysilicon inventory was at a high level of 253,000 tons, while organic silicon inventory was at a low level of 55,100 tons with a production profit of - 582 yuan/ton. Alloy ingot inventory was also at a high level. The cost support in the Xinjiang region increased during the dry season [6]. - **Basis**: On October 20, the spot price of non - oxygenated silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 420 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 562,000 tons, a 3.12% increase from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory increased by 0.09%, and the main port inventory remained unchanged [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed below the MA20 [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net short, and the short position decreased [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling increased and was near the historical average level, while the demand recovery was at a low level. The cost support increased, and the industrial silicon 2601 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,445 - 8,685 [6]. Polysilicon - **Supply**: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The scheduled output for October was 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month [8]. - **Demand**: The silicon wafer output last week was 14.35 GW, a 11.84% increase from the previous week, but the production was in a loss state. The battery cell production was also in a loss state, while the component production was profitable. The overall demand was expected to continue to recover [8]. - **Cost**: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry was 467,790 yuan/ton, with a production income of - 414,990 yuan/ton [8]. - **Basis**: On October 20, the basis of the 12 contract was - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 253,000 tons, a 5.41% increase from the previous week, at a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 was downward, and the price of the 12 contract closed below the MA20 [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position was net long, and the long position decreased [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling continued to increase, and the demand was expected to recover in the medium - term. The cost support was strengthened, and the polysilicon 2512 was expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,470 - 51,210 [8]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - The prices of most industrial silicon contracts showed an upward trend, with the 01 contract increasing by 0.91%, the 02 contract by 1.02%, etc. The social inventory increased by 3.12% week - on - week, while the main port inventory remained unchanged [14]. Polysilicon - The prices of most polysilicon contracts decreased, with the 01 contract decreasing by 3.76%, the 02 contract by 3.86%, etc. The weekly silicon wafer output increased by 5.74%, and the weekly silicon wafer inventory decreased by 22.06% [16]. 3. Price and Cost Trends - **Industrial Silicon**: The price - basis and delivery product spread trends, inventory trends, production and capacity utilization trends, and cost trends in sample regions are presented through various charts [18][25][27][33]. - **Polysilicon**: The price trends, basis trends, and cost trends of polysilicon are presented through charts [22]. 4. Supply - Demand Balance Industrial Silicon - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, consumption, and balance of industrial silicon, indicating the overall supply - demand situation in different time periods [35][38]. Polysilicon - The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, consumption, and balance of polysilicon, indicating the supply - demand relationship in the polysilicon market [62]. 5. Downstream Market Trends Organic Silicon - The DMC daily capacity utilization rate, profit - cost trends, production trends, price trends, import - export, and inventory trends are presented [41][43][48]. Aluminum Alloy - The price and supply situation, inventory and production trends, and demand in the automotive and wheel hub sectors of the aluminum alloy market are presented [51][54][56]. Polysilicon Downstream - The cost trends, price trends, inventory trends, production trends, and supply - demand balance of polysilicon downstream products such as silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, and photovoltaic accessories are presented [59][65][68][71][74].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The cotton market shows a mixed picture with both bearish and bullish factors. Bearish factors include expected high production, high inventory, downward - trending 20 - day moving average, and bearish主力持仓. Bullish factors are the positive basis and reduced Sino - US tariffs and lower commercial inventory. Currently, new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and short - term rebounds have occurred in the market, with the main 01 contract reaching the pressure level around 13,500, where there will be a tug - of - war between bulls and bears [4][5][6]. Summary by Catalog 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the given content. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple reports show different production, consumption, and inventory data. For example, the ICAC 9 - month report predicts 2025/26 annual production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; the USDA 9 - month report forecasts production of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. China's cotton imports in September were 100,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%, and cotton yarn imports were 130,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.18%. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/26 forecast shows production of 6.36 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory of 8.22 million tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,679, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1,214, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/26 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The market has shown a short - term rebound, and the main 01 contract has reached the pressure level around 13,500, where there will be a struggle between bulls and bears [4]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the given content. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: Global production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; global consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is 2.59 million tons, an increase of 40,000 tons (1.6%); global consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, an increase of 26,000 tons (1.6%); global trade volume is 970,000 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons (3.9%); and the price forecast (Cotlook A Index) is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents), with a narrower year - on - year fluctuation [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture's Forecast (October)**: In 2025/26, production is 6.36 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory is 8.22 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 5. Position Data No information provided in the given content.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **焦煤**: The current raw material inventory of coking and steel enterprises is at a low level, with replenishment demand still existing. The first round of comprehensive price increase of coke has improved the miners' sentiment, supporting some coal prices to rise steadily. However, downstream coking enterprises and middlemen still have resistance to high - priced coal sources, and the market trading atmosphere has slightly declined. The overall market tends to be stable. The downstream coking and steel enterprises' operating rates are stable, and the hot metal output fluctuates little, with stable rigid demand. But the profits of coking and steel enterprises are mostly on the verge of profit and loss, and some are in the red, leading to varying degrees of production restrictions or maintenance, which slightly reduces the demand for raw coal. It is expected that the coking coal price will remain stable in the short term [2]. - **焦炭**: Some coking enterprises have slightly reduced their production, and the downstream rigid - demand procurement support is strong. The coke inventory is mostly maintained at a low level, and some coking enterprises are reluctant to sell. However, the downstream steel mills' hot metal output has continuously declined, and the demand for raw materials has slightly decreased. The steel mills have not yet responded to the coke price increase, and the coking and steel enterprises have entered a game state. It is expected that the coke price will remain stable in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price - **焦煤**: On October 20, 2025, the prices of imported Russian and Australian coking coal varied at different ports, with some prices rising and some remaining unchanged [11]. - **焦炭**: On October 20, 2025, the prices of port metallurgical coke showed an upward trend in some cases, with an increase of 30 for some types of coke [10]. Inventory - **Port Inventory**: The coking coal port inventory was 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; the coke port inventory was 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [19]. - **Independent Coking Enterprises Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises was 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; the coke inventory was 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [23]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of steel mills was 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; the coke inventory was 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [28]. Other Data - **全国230家独立焦企样本产能利用率**: 74.48% [41]. - **全国30家独立焦化厂平均吨焦盈利**: 25 yuan [45].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月21日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 白糖： 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年9月中国进口食糖55万吨，同比增加15万吨；进口 糖浆及预混粉等三项合计15.14万吨，同比减少13.51万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Grease Morning Report - Date: 2025-10-21 - Analyst: Wang Mingwei - Qualification Number: F0283029 - Investment Consultation Number: Z0010442 - Tel: 0575-85226759 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 3: Core Views - The prices of oils and fats are oscillating and consolidating. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino-US relations are stalemated, the export of new US soybeans is frustrated, and prices are under pressure. Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and import inventory is stable [2][3][4] Group 4: Market Analysis of Different Oils and Fats Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: MPOB report shows that Malaysian palm oil production in August decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% month-on-month to 1.49 million tons, and end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% month-on-month to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month. Subsequently, it will enter the production cut season, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8502, with a basis of 204, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. - **Main Position**: The short position of the main contract of soybean oil has decreased. - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 will oscillate in the range of 8000 - 8500 [2] Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, but subsequently it will enter the production increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9334, with a basis of 16, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year decrease of 34.1%. - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is downward. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main contract of palm oil has decreased. - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 will oscillate in the range of 9100 - 9500 [3] Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10228, with a basis of 310, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward. - **Main Position**: The long position of the main contract of rapeseed oil has decreased. - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 will oscillate in the range of 9700 - 10100 [4] Group 5: Recent利多利空 Analysis - **利多**: The inventory-to-sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, and the supply is tight. There is a tremor season for palm oil. - **利空**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously accumulating. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of relevant oils and fats is high. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5] Group 6: Supply and Demand Data Supply - Imported soybean inventory, soybean oil inventory, soybean meal inventory, palm oil inventory, rapeseed oil inventory, rapeseed inventory, and domestic total inventory of oils and fats are presented in the form of charts, showing the inventory changes from 2015 to 2025 [6][7][9][17][19][21][23] Demand - The apparent consumption of soybean oil and soybean meal is presented in the form of charts, showing the consumption changes from 2015 to 2025 [13][15]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market in the 2025/26 season, with most predicting an oversupply situation. - The domestic sugar market has both positive and negative factors. There are signs of tight supply in the short - term, but the long - term supply gap is gradually narrowing. - New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. The near - month main contract SR2601 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the SR2605 contract. Whether it can continue to rebound remains to be seen. [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The report does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Czarnikow has raised the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 season to 740,000 tons, 120,000 tons higher than the August estimate. StoneX predicts a global sugar market surplus of 277,000 tons in the 25/26 season, while ISO estimates a supply gap of 231,000 tons, significantly reduced from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1,116.21 million tons, with cumulative sales of 1 million tons and a sales rate of 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 115,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 155,700 tons. The overall situation is bearish. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,810 yuan, with a basis of 398 yuan for the 01 contract, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is bullish. [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, a neutral situation. [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. [6] - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions. The main trend is unclear, and it is generally bearish. [5] - **Expectation**: New sugar is about to be listed in large quantities. Considering that the listing price of new sugar is higher than the futures price, the near - month main contract SR2601 of Zhengzhou sugar is relatively resistant to decline, and its rebound strength is relatively stronger than that of the SR2605 contract. The SR2601 contract has filled the gap in the short - term, and whether it can further rebound remains to be observed. [5] 3.3 Today's Focus The report does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecasts by Institutions**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar market in the 25/26 season. For example, ISO predicts a supply gap of 20,000 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277,000 tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740,000 tons, Datagro predicts a surplus of 153,000 tons, Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420,000 tons, Alvean/Louis Dreyfus predicts a surplus of 40,000 tons, and Green Pool predicts a surplus of 115,000 tons. [23][33] - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 season, the sugar production is expected to be 1.12 million tons, imports are 500,000 tons, consumption is 1.59 million tons, and the balance change is 120,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton. [35] 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, with a reduction in net short positions, and the main trend is unclear, being generally bearish [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall situation of the cotton market has both bullish and bearish factors. The market is expected to show short - term rebound trends, and the main 01 contract should focus on the pressure around 13,500, with an intraday volatile and bullish mindset [4]. - Bullish factors include the reduction of reciprocal tariffs between China and the US and the year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory [5]. - Bearish factors involve ongoing trade negotiations, high export tariffs to the US, a decline in overall foreign trade orders, increased inventory, the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, and weak consumption during the "Golden September" [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 2. Daily Prompt - **Fundamentals**: The national cotton output is expected to be 7.28 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different reports have varying data on 2025/2026 production, consumption, and inventory. For example, the ICAC September report shows a production and consumption of 25.5 million tons each; the USDA September report has production at 25.622 million tons, consumption at 25.872 million tons, and ending inventory at 15.925 million tons. In September, textile and clothing exports were $24.42 billion, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, and 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/2026 forecast has production at 6.36 million tons, imports at 1.4 million tons, consumption at 7.4 million tons, and ending inventory at 8.22 million tons. The overall fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,679, with a basis of 1,344 (for the 01 contract), indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture's October 2025/2026 forecast for China's ending inventory is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, with the net short position increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and previous bearish news has been gradually digested. The market shows a short - term rebound trend. The main 01 contract should focus on the pressure around 13,500, with an intraday volatile and bullish mindset [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: The total global production in 2025/2026 is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 230,000 - ton increase from the previous forecast; total consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; and ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a 168,000 - ton decrease [8][10]. - **Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet (ICAC)**: In the 2025/2026 season, global production is 2.59 million tons, a 40,000 - ton (1.6%) increase; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a 26,000 - ton (1.6%) increase; and global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a 36,000 - ton (3.9%) increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A Index is 57 - 94 cents per pound (median 73 cents) [12]. - **China's Cotton Data (Ministry of Agriculture)**: In 2025/2026, production is 636,000 tons, imports are 140,000 tons, consumption is 740,000 tons, and ending inventory is 822,000 tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14,000 - 16,000 yuan per ton, and the Cotlook A Index is expected to be between 75 - 100 cents per pound [14]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

Report Overview - Report Name: Polyolefin Morning Report - Report Date: October 20, 2025 - Report Author: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [2][3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the expectation of a weak and volatile trend in the market today. Factors contributing to this include the "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern in the long - term for crude oil, limited support for the cost side of polyolefins, uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, and relatively high industrial inventories [4][6]. Summary by Sections LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In September, the official PMI was 49.8, up 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating improved manufacturing sentiment but still in the contraction range. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil remains unchanged, providing limited support for the polyolefin cost side. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices are falling. The agricultural film industry is operating steadily with a slight increase in the operating rate, and the demand for other film types is good as Double 11 approaches. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6910 (-40), with overall bearish fundamentals [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 19, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.3%, considered neutral [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.0 tons (+3.7), considered neutral [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is increasing, showing a bullish sign [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, stable operation of the agricultural film industry, and relatively high industrial inventories [4]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the seasonally increased demand; bearish factors are the weak year - on - year demand, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [5]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, the macro - economic situation shows improved but still contracting manufacturing sentiment. The long - term "supply increase and demand decrease" pattern of crude oil provides limited cost support. Sino - US trade negotiations are uncertain, and oil prices are falling. The plastic weaving industry is supported by the peak season, and the demand for pipes is increasing but still weak year - on - year. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6550 (-10), with overall bearish fundamentals [6]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 68, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.0%, considered bearish [6]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 67.9 tons (-0.3), considered neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, indicating a bearish trend [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, showing a bearish sign [6]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly today, affected by falling crude oil prices, increased Sino - US macro risks, new production capacity coming online, stable downstream average operating rate, and relatively high industrial inventories [6]. - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Bullish factor is the seasonally increased demand; bearish factors are the weak year - on - year demand, significant new production capacity in the fourth quarter, and Sino - US trade risks [7]. Market Data Tables - **LLDPE**: The spot price of delivery products is 6910 (-40), the 01 contract price is 6929 (+19), the basis is - 19 (-59), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 58.0 (+3.7), and the social inventory is 54.6 (+2.1) [8]. - **PP**: The spot price of delivery products is 6550 (-10), the 01 contract price is 6618 (+23), the basis is - 68 (-33), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 67.9 (-0.3), and the social inventory is 34.9 (-2.3) [8]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene generally showed an increasing trend, with fluctuations in the import dependence. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4319.5 [13]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene also generally increased, with the import dependence showing a downward trend. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4906 [15].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-10-20 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，综合库存显著累积。需求端，工业 及农业需求均偏弱，农需受天气影响需求偏弱，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率回落。出口内外价差较 大但对国内价格支撑有限。国内尿素整体供过于求仍明显。交割品现货1550（+10），基本面整 体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-54，升贴水比例-3.5%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存185.9万吨（+17.4），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，减空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国际尿素价格偏强 ...