1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of lithium carbonate is characterized by over - supply and weak demand due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the lithium carbonate market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [9][10]. - It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the cost - side 6% concentrate CIF price has decreased daily and is lower than the historical average. The supply - demand pattern will shift to demand - led. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract will fluctuate in the range of 72,280 - 74,400 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 20,516 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.75%, higher than the historical average. It is predicted that the production in August 2025 was 85,240 physical tons, and next month's production is expected to be 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75% [8]. - **Demand**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 101,848 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.62%. The inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,896 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.00%. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 74,486 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 1.22%, with a production income of 2,006 yuan/ton, resulting in a loss. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 77,806 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 0.59%, with a production income of - 7,315 yuan/ton, also resulting in a loss. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that at the ore end, and the production scheduling enthusiasm is average [8]. - **Basis**: On October 9th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 210 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 33,492 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.79%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 60,893 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.35%, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 42,440 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.61%. The total inventory was 136,825 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.51%, higher than the historical average [8]. - **Expected**: It is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate next month will be 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.74%. The lithium carbonate 2511 contract will fluctuate in the range of 72,280 - 74,400 [8]. 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis**: Most of the futures closing prices showed an increase, with an increase range of 0.74% - 1.15%. The basis of most contracts decreased, with a decrease range of 72.00% - 119.30%. The registered warehouse receipts were 42,379 lots, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% [14]. - **Upstream Price**: The price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 1.75% to 843 US dollars/ton, and the price of lepidolite concentrate (2% - 2.5%) decreased by 1.08% to 1,835 yuan/ton. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 73,550 yuan/ton [14]. - **Positive Material and Lithium Battery Price**: The prices of most positive materials and lithium batteries increased. For example, the price of 523 polycrystalline consumer - type positive materials increased by 2.81% to 87,725 yuan/ton, and the price of 523 single - crystal power - type ternary precursors increased by 2.14% to 81,100 yuan/ton [14]. 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Overview - **Supply**: The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate have increased to varying degrees. For example, the monthly production increased by 17.74% to 311,670 tons, and the monthly import volume increased by 57.79% to 21,846.92 tons. However, the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate decreased by 18.32% to 470,599 tons [17]. - **Demand**: The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh, and the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles also increased. The production volume increased by 11.91% to 1,391,000 vehicles, and the sales volume increased by 10.54% to 1.395 million vehicles [17]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has changed. In August 2025, the balance was 2,695 tons, showing a surplus [17]. 3.4 Supply - Related - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium ore in China have also changed. The production of spodumene mines in Chinese samples and the total domestic lepidolite production have shown different trends in different years [23]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import volume, and inventory of lithium carbonate have changed. The weekly production of lithium carbonate has increased, and the monthly import volume from Chile has increased significantly. The inventory of lithium carbonate in different links has also changed [29][31]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide have changed. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic lithium hydroxide has fluctuated, and the monthly export volume has increased in some months [37]. 3.5 Cost - Profit of Lithium Compounds - The production of lithium carbonate from purchased spodumene concentrate and lepidolite is in a loss state. The daily production profit of purchased spodumene concentrate is - 2,006 yuan/ton, and the daily production profit of purchased lepidolite is - 7,315 yuan/ton [8]. - The cost and profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from different types of black powder also vary. For example, the profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate from purchased ternary battery black powder (Li: 3.0% - 3.5%) has fluctuated [44]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate in different links has changed. The weekly inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 3.62% to 101,848 tons, and the weekly inventory of ternary material sample enterprises increased by 2.00% to 17,896 tons [8]. 3.7 Demand - Related - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have changed. The monthly production of power battery cells has increased, and the monthly loading volume of power batteries has also increased [53]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, and production of ternary precursors have changed. The price of ternary precursors has fluctuated, and the production has increased in some months [58]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, and production of ternary materials have changed. The price of ternary materials has fluctuated, and the weekly start - up rate has also changed [64]. - **Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium**: The price, cost, and production of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium have changed. The price of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium has fluctuated, and the monthly production of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium has also changed [69]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles have increased. The production of new energy vehicles increased by 11.91% to 1,391,000 vehicles, and the sales volume increased by 10.54% to 1.395 million vehicles [17][77].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall outlook for cotton is mixed, with both bearish and bullish factors. The market is expected to face increased supply as new cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season has passed halfway with a lackluster market performance. The short - term rebound of the main 01 contract after the holiday is mainly a technical rebound due to the previous price over - decline [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant content provided. 3.2每日提示 - **Fundamentals**: National cotton production is expected to be 722 million tons, with Xinjiang hitting a new high. Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 cotton season. For example, ICAC predicts a production of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons; USDA predicts a production of 25.622 million tons and consumption of 25.872 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a 5% year - on - year decrease. Cotton imports in August were 70,000 tons, a 51.6% year - on - year decrease, and棉纱 imports were 130,000 tons, an 18.18% year - on - year increase. The overall fundamental situation is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14,739, and the basis for the 01 contract is 1444, indicating a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in September by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 8.22 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main positions**: The net short position has decreased, but the overall position is still bearish, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectations**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, and the market is quiet. New cotton is about to be listed in large quantities, and the market expects an increase in supply. The main 01 contract rebounded after the holiday, mainly due to a short - term technical rebound after the pre - holiday price over - decline [4]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant content provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **USDA Forecasts**: In the 25/26 season, the total global cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 230,000 - ton increase from the previous forecast; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, an 184,000 - ton increase; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, a 168,000 - ton decrease [9]. - **ICAC Forecasts**: In the 25/26 season, global cotton production is 2.59 million tons, a 40,000 - ton (+1.6%) increase; consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically flat; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a 26,000 - ton (+1.6%) increase; and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a 36,000 - ton (+3.9%) increase. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Forecasts**: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production is 6.37 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.22 million tons [12]. 3.5持仓数据 No relevant content provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-10-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：煤矿多执行前期订单，库存维持在中低位水平，产地各煤种价格多以稳为主，部分高价煤 种小幅调整，矿企多持看稳心态，湖南地区一煤矿发生事故，短期煤矿安监或将趋严；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1285，基差121；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向上，价格在20日线下方；中性 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：节日期间随着焦炭首轮涨价全面落地，焦企利润稍有修复，但经过节前补库之后，焦企对原 料煤采购放缓，叠加下游企业利润有限，对 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖 浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少15.57万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州现货58 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. Affected by Argentina's tariff policy, the supply of beans and oils has increased, leading to an overall adjustment in the prices of oilseeds and oils. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to a rise in the rapeseed sector. The domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral, and the import inventory is stable. The easing of Sino - US and Sino - Canadian relations affects the market at the macro - level. [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View of Different Oils 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production reduction is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,512, with a basis of 179, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% increase year - on - year. [2] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased. [2] - **Expectation**: The price of soybean oil Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,500. [2] 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,598, with a basis of - 28, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price. [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% decrease year - on - year. [3] - **Market**: The futures price is running below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward. [3] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased. [3] - **Expectation**: The price of palm oil P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,350 - 9,750. [3] 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to the above two oils, the MPOB report shows neutral conditions, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season. [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,386, with a basis of 138, indicating that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price. [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% increase year - on - year. [4] - **Market**: The futures price is running above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward. [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased. [4] - **Expectation**: The price of rapeseed oil OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 10,000 - 10,400. [4] 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Positive Factors**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil. [5] - **Negative Factors**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high. [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose. [5]

大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落。基本面上，镍矿价格继续坚挺，镍铁价格维稳，下方支撑依旧有力。不锈 钢去库存化良好，金九银十表现较佳。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但随着电池端的技术替代，镍的需求 增长或受限，三元电池装车量环比下降。从中长线来看镍的过剩局格不变。偏空 2、基差：现货123600，基差-880，偏空 3、库存：LME库存236892，+4260，上交所仓单24775，-42，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍2511：宽幅震荡思路，逢高仍可试空。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年10月10日 利多： 利空： 1、金九银十需求提振预期 2、反内卷政策 3、成本线12万 ...

沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 近期利多利空分析 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20940，基差-150，贴水期货，偏空。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减1029吨至 123597吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply side of copper has disturbances with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap - copper policy being relaxed. In September, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.8%, with the business climate continuing to improve. The copper price is expected to remain strong due to inventory recovery and geopolitical disturbances, such as the event at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap - copper policy, and improved manufacturing PMI in September. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 85750, with a basis of - 1000, indicating a discount to futures, which is bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: On October 9, copper inventory increased by 275 to 139475 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 3745 tons to 95034 tons compared to last week. Overall, it is considered neutral [2]. - **Market Chart**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: Inventory is rising, geopolitical disturbances persist, and the copper price is expected to remain strong [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but no clear classification of bullish or bearish factors is given [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state [21]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 to 2024 [23].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the post - holiday spot market negotiation atmosphere is average, with spot basis fluctuating. Due to some PTA device maintenance and production reduction, along with the delay of new device commissioning, the PTA supply - demand outlook improves. It is expected that the short - term spot price will mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to downstream production and sales and device changes [5]. - For MEG, the main port arrivals this week are still high, and it is expected that the port inventory will continue to rise early next week. In October, the MEG supply - demand pattern turns to inventory accumulation, with an overall accumulation of about 50,000 tons, and there is continuous inventory accumulation pressure in the far - month. The market sentiment is under significant pressure. It is expected that the MEG market will operate weakly in the short term, and attention should be paid to external factors and device changes [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No relevant content provided 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: Yesterday, PTA futures rebounded after a decline. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, with weak spot basis. Trades were mainly among traders, and some polyester factories made bids. This week and next week's goods were traded at a discount of 58 - 65 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4,470 - 4,530. Goods at the end of October were traded at a discount of 60 to the 01 contract, and some were slightly lower. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 63. The spot price is 4,500, the basis of the 01 contract is - 84, and the futures price is at a premium. The PTA factory inventory is 4.22 days, a decrease of 0.47 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The net position of the main contract is short, and short positions are increasing [5][6]. - **MEG**: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined, and the market negotiation was acceptable. After the holiday, the ethylene glycol port inventory increased significantly to over 500,000 tons, and there are still plans for large ships to arrive this week. The ethylene glycol futures price weakened significantly, with spot prices at low levels trading around 4,180 - 4,185 yuan/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price recovered moderately, and the spot price rebounded slightly. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol external market weakened. Near noon, recent shipments were traded around 490 - 493 US dollars/ton. In the afternoon, the futures price rebounded slightly, and the negotiation center of shipments rose to around 495 - 498 US dollars/ton. The trading volume in the market was weak. The spot price is 4,214, the basis of the 01 contract is 56, and the futures price is at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region is 445,100 tons, an increase of 40,800 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main contract has a net short position, and short positions are decreasing [7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: Before the holiday, driven by the recovery of demand and the rebound of oil prices, the polyester market sales were booming. The equity inventory of POY and FDY in the pre - spinning of filament yarns quickly decreased to about half a month, and the prices rebounded by 100 - 150 yuan. During the holiday, the polyester prices were stable, and the filament yarn production and sales were only 10% - 20%. It is estimated that the average inventory accumulation in 8 days will exceed 5 days. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is shut down for maintenance and is expected to restart in November [8][9]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Currently, the short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes and supply - demand gaps [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, port inventory, and supply - demand difference data from January 2024 to December 2025, including year - on - year changes [12]. - **Price Data**: It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization rate, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spread, basis, spot spread, and other price - related data from 2020 to 2025 [14][17][21][22][24][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester fiber in different regions and time periods from 2020 to 2025 [40][42][45][46][49][50]. - **Polyester Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates**: It includes the operating rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [51][55]. - **Profit Data**: It presents the production profit data of PTA, MEG, polyester fiber short - fiber, and polyester fiber long - filament from 2022 to 2025 [60][61][64][65]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: Urea Morning Report [2] - Report date: October 10, 2025 [2] - Author: Jin Zebin from the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Group 3: Core View - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined but remain at a relatively high level, with enterprise inventories accumulating. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the domestic urea market is still in a situation of significant oversupply. Although the international urea price is strong, it has limited support for the domestic price. It is expected that the urea main contract will fluctuate today [4]. Group 4: Urea Overview Positive Factors - International prices are strong [5] Negative Factors - High daily production at high operating rates [5] - Weak domestic demand [5] Main Logic - International prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Analysis of Each Indicator - **Fundamentals**: Current daily production and operating rates are slightly down but still high, with enterprise inventories accumulating in many provinces. Both industrial and agricultural demand are weak, and the third batch of export quotas has limited support for domestic prices. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1700 (-40), with a generally bearish fundamental outlook [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 91, with a premium - discount ratio of 5.4%, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The comprehensive UR inventory is 1.686 million tons (+161,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net long position of the UR main contract is increasing, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate. International urea prices are strong but have limited support for domestic prices. With weak industrial and agricultural demand and significant domestic oversupply, the UR is expected to fluctuate today [4]. Group 5: Market Data Spot and Futures Market | Region | Price | Change | Main Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1700 | - 20 | 01 Contract | 1609 | - 61 | | Shandong Spot | 1700 | - 20 | Basis | 91 | 41 | | Henan Spot | 1720 | 0 | UR01 | 1609 | - 61 | | FOB China | 3097 | | UR05 | 1677 | - 40 | | | | | UR09 | 1701 | - 41 | [6] Inventory Data | Type | Quantity | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Warehouse Receipt | 7017 | - 152 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory | 1.686 million tons | + 161,000 tons | | UR Manufacturer Inventory | 1.086 million tons | | | UR Port Inventory | 600,000 tons | | [6] Group 6: Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | PP Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2245.5 | 1956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [9]