Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The market showed a slight increase last week after the holiday, with spot transactions being acceptable. The long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. It is recommended to adopt a wide - range oscillation strategy and try short - selling at high prices for the contract 沪镍2511 [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel declined. The cost line is firm, and inventory has increased. The contract 不锈钢2512 is expected to run in a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Overview - **镍**: On October 10, the price of 沪镍主力 was 122,180, down 2,300 from the previous day; the price of 伦镍电 was 15,215, down 270. The price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 123,850, up 250 [14]. - **不锈钢**: On October 10, the price of 不锈钢主力 was 12,805, down 55 from the previous day. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi remained unchanged at 13,950 [14]. 3.2 Inventory - **镍**: As of October 10, LME nickel inventory was 237,378, an increase of 486; Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 25,228, an increase of 453. The total inventory was 262,606, an increase of 939 [17]. - **不锈钢**: On October 10, the Wuxi inventory was 615,400 tons, the Foshan inventory was 310,800 tons, and the national inventory was 1,053,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 77,700 tons. The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts were 86,254, a decrease of 297 [21][22]. 3.3 Cost - **镍**: The import cost was estimated to be 122,564 yuan/ton [30]. - **不锈钢**: The traditional production cost was 13,165 yuan/ton, the scrap steel production cost was 13,464 yuan/ton, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 16,955 yuan/ton [27]. 3.4 Market Factors - **Likely to be Bullish**: There are expectations of a Fed rate cut, anti - involution policies, and firm ore prices with a cost support at 120,000 [8]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: Domestic nickel production continues to rise significantly year - on - year, there is no new growth point in demand, and the long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged. The loading volume of ternary batteries is decreasing year - on - year [8].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-10-10甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：节后甲醇现货市场预期气氛保持活跃。10 月甲醇进口预期依然充足，叠加国庆假期期间下游提货节奏放 缓、提货量有限，当前港口整体库存仍维持在高位水平，短期库存压力与进口增量预期形成叠加。内地市场节后物流运 输逐步恢复常态，缓解内地甲醇流通成本压力；烯烃企业阶段性甲醇外采对市场影响持续凸显，同时传统下游节后存在 补货需求，需求端整体为内地甲醇市场提供支撑。此外10 月仍有部分甲醇企业存在检修计划，供给端局部减量预期与需 求端恢复节奏、运费成本变化等因素相互作用，导致10月甲醇价格预期波动较为频繁，多空因素博弈下需持 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement, the ongoing US government shutdown, and the potential for new US sanctions on Russia have led to a significant reduction in geopolitical concerns, causing oil prices to decline. With insufficient bullish stimuli and an expected oversupply in the fourth quarter, crude oil is trending downward. The domestic market price has broken below the lower limit of the previous trading range, facing significant pressure in the future. Short-term trading is expected to be in the range of 460 - 470, and long-term long positions are advised to be closed [3]. - In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are weakening, and in the medium to long term, there is a risk of increased supply [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The Israel-Hamas ceasefire agreement and the ongoing US government shutdown are bearish factors. Trump's indication of possible new sanctions on Russia also adds uncertainty [3]. - **Basis**: On October 9, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $66.95/barrel and $65.87/barrel respectively, with a basis of $25.17/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is a bullish factor [3]. - **Inventory**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 2.25 million barrels. The EIA inventory for the same period increased by 3.715 million barrels, also exceeding the expected increase of 1.885 million barrels. The Cushing area inventory decreased by 763,000 barrels during the week ending October 3. As of October 9, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.401 million barrels, which is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20-day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions in the WTI crude oil main contract increased, while as of September 30, the long positions in the Brent crude oil main contract decreased, showing a neutral stance [3]. 3.2 Recent News - **Geopolitical**: The Israeli government approved a ceasefire agreement with Hamas, which may lead to a relaxation of the Middle East situation. The US imposed sanctions on about 100 individuals, entities, and vessels, including a Chinese independent refinery and a terminal operator, for assisting Iran in oil and petrochemical product trading [5]. - **Monetary Policy**: New York Fed President Williams supports the Fed's decision to continue cutting interest rates this year, while Fed Governor Barr believes that the Fed should be cautious about further rate cuts [5]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish**: The Russia-Ukraine conflict poses a threat to refineries and oil fields [6]. - **Bearish**: The relaxation of the Middle East situation, the risk of the US government shutdown, and OPEC+'s consideration of continuing to increase production [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil were $69.22, $65.72, $480.5, and $70.53 respectively, with changes of $0.64 (+0.93%), $0.74 (+1.14%), -$14.00 (-2.83%), and -$0.08 (-0.11%) [7]. - **Spot Market**: The settlement prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $72.09, $65.72, $70.88, $66.72, and $70.71 respectively, with changes of $1.50 (+2.12%), $0.74 (+1.14%), $0.05 (+0.07%), $0.63 (+0.95%), and -$0.09 (-0.13%) [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The API crude oil inventory for the week ending October 3 increased by 2.78 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 3.715 million barrels [3]. 3.5 Position Data - As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249, while as of September 30, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds decreased by 11,466 [3][17][19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, leading to a pull - back in gold prices due to profit - taking. Although the upward trend of gold prices remains unchanged due to the presence of risk - aversion sentiment and easing expectations, short - term profit - taking after a significant rise may cause gold prices to fluctuate. The premium of Shanghai gold has rapidly widened to - 8 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: After overseas silver hit a record high and fell back, profit - taking drove silver prices down as silver reached an important target level. The premium of Shanghai silver has significantly converged to - 175 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment is cautious. The upward trend of silver prices remains unchanged, but there may be short - term fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - Gold: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined, causing gold prices to fall due to profit - taking. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX gold futures fell 1.95% to $3991.10 per ounce [4]. - Silver: Overseas silver reached a record high and then declined. The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower, and the three major European stock indexes showed mixed performance. US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield increasing by 1.55 basis points to 4.136%. The US dollar index rose 0.55% to 99.40, and the offshore RMB appreciated against the US dollar to 7.1380. COMEX silver futures fell 2.73% to $47.66 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis of gold is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is neutral. Gold futures warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - Silver: The basis of silver is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms, which is neutral. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing, which is bullish [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - Data that may be released: China's aggregate financing to the real economy from January to September and new RMB loans. - Speeches and events: At 09:40, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly (a 2027 FOMC voter) will discuss the US economy and science and technology at an event with Silicon Valley executives; the EU finance ministers will hold a meeting (time to be determined); at 15:40, European Central Bank Governing Council member Escriva will speak; at 17:00, the winner of the Nobel Peace Prize will be announced; at 20:30, Canada's employment report for September (including employment numbers and unemployment rate) will be released; at 21:45, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (a 2025 FOMC voter) will give an opening speech and host a discussion at a community bankers' seminar; at 22:00, the preliminary value of the University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for October in the US will be released; at 01:00 the next day, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard (a 2025 FOMC voter) will participate in a fireside chat related to the US economy and FOMC monetary policy; at 02:00 the next day, the US government budget for September will be released [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The basis is - 3.39, with the spot at a discount to the futures; warehouse receipts are 70,728 kilograms, remaining unchanged [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 40, with the spot at a discount to the futures; Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,186,846 kilograms, a daily decrease of 5,436 kilograms [6]. 3.5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are decreasing [5]. - Silver: The main net position is long, and the main long positions are increasing [6].

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core View - Due to the implementation of the cease - fire agreement between Hamas and Israel, geopolitical concerns have weakened. With no new news on Russian sanctions and lack of geopolitical support, oil prices are expected to decline. Fuel oil is likely to follow, and considering the lack of improvement in shipping demand and weakening power generation demand, there is significant pressure in the future market. The expected operating range for FU2601 is 2770 - 2820, and for LU2511 is 3300 - 3360 [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The expected operating range for FU2601 is 2770 - 2820, and for LU2511 is 3300 - 3360. The market is affected by geopolitical factors, shipping and power generation demand [3]. 2. Multi - Short Focus - **Likely Positive Factors**: None mentioned. - **Likely Negative Factors**: Optimism on the demand side remains to be verified; there is a possibility of increased sanctions on Russia and an extension of Russia's fuel oil export restrictions. The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand [4]. 3. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The inflow of component oils for blending low - sulfur fuel oil is increasing, and with the end of the peak power - consumption season in the Middle East, the inflow of high - sulfur fuel oil from this region will increase, keeping the Asian market well - supplied [3]. - **Demand**: High - sulfur fuel oil bunker demand remains stable, but overall shipping demand has not improved, and power generation demand has weakened [3]. - **Basis**: The basis for Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 58 yuan/ton, and for low - sulfur fuel oil is 0 yuan/ton, with the spot price at par with the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: Singapore's fuel oil inventory in the week of September 24 was 2316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels [3]. - **Market Trend**: Prices are above the 20 - day line, which is flat [3]. - **Main Positions**: High - sulfur main positions are long, with a reduction in long positions; low - sulfur main positions are short, with an increase in short positions [3]. 4. Spread Data - **Futures Price Changes**: The price of the FU main contract decreased from 2937 to 2870, a decrease of 67, or 2.28%. The price of the LU main contract decreased from 3482 to 3402, a decrease of 80, or 2.30%. The FU basis decreased from 117 to 97, a decrease of 20, or 16.80%. The LU basis decreased from 64 to 45, a decrease of 18, or 28.35% [5]. - **Spot Price Changes**: The price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 482.00 to 481.00, a decrease of 1.00, or 0.21%. The price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 500.00 to 498.00, a decrease of 2.00, or 0.40%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 395.17 to 393.22, a decrease of 1.95, or 0.49%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 463.34 to 458.78, a decrease of 4.56, or 0.98%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 372.09 to 370.89, a decrease of 1.20, or 0.32%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 635.97 to 642.13, an increase of 6.16, or 0.97% [6]. 5. Inventory Data - Singapore's fuel oil inventory on July 23 was 1990.9 million barrels, a decrease of 45 million barrels; on July 30, it was 2027.9 million barrels, an increase of 37 million barrels; on August 6, it was 2074.9 million barrels, an increase of 47 million barrels; on August 13, it was 2263.9 million barrels, an increase of 189 million barrels; on August 20, it was 2391.9 million barrels, an increase of 128 million barrels; on August 27, it was 2188.9 million barrels, a decrease of 203 million barrels; on September 3, it was 2330.9 million barrels, an increase of 142 million barrels; on September 10, it was 2303.9 million barrels, a decrease of 27 million barrels; on September 17, it was 2315.9 million barrels, an increase of 12 million barrels; on September 24, it was 2316.9 million barrels, an increase of 1 million barrels; on October 1, it was 2225.9 million barrels, a decrease of 91 million barrels [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report indicates that there are both positive and negative factors in the PVC market. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export advantages [11] - Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [11] - Main logic: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply side**: In September 2025, PVC production was 2.030766 million tons, a 2.05% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 81.42%, a 0.03 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 337,665 tons, a 2.76% month - on - month increase, and ethylene method enterprise production was 140,610 tons, a 6.27% month - on - month increase. Supply pressure increased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in production scheduling [7]. - **Demand side**: The overall downstream开工率 was 47.76%, a 1.5 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile开工率 was 38.91%, a 0.52 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe开工率 was 40.43%, a 0.3 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The downstream film开工率 was 63.93%, a 12.9 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin开工率 was 80.31%, unchanged month - on - month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to rise, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. - **Cost side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 783.9115 yuan/ton, a 19.20% month - on - month increase in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 645.3653 yuan/ton, a 1.00% month - on - month decrease in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,249.25 yuan/ton, a 2.00% month - on - month decrease in profit, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [7]. - **Basis**: On October 9, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,700 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 69 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 318,237 tons, a 3.92% month - on - month increase. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 250,547 tons, a 3.94% month - on - month increase. Ethylene method factory inventory was 67,690 tons, a 3.81% month - on - month increase. Social inventory was 537,700 tons, a 0.56% month - on - month increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.3 days, a 2.91% month - on - month increase [8]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed below MA20 [8]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions increased [8]. - **Expectation**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, and the overall cost weakens. Supply pressure increases this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in production scheduling. Overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4,738 - 4,800 [8]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's market overview data, including prices, price changes, spreads, and inventory data of different types of PVC products and related indicators [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the basis trend chart of PVC futures, showing the relationship between the basis, East China PVC market price, and the closing price of the main contract [18]. 3.5 PVC Futures Market - Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread - The report shows the spread trend chart of the main contract of PVC futures, including the spreads of different contract periods in 2024 and 2025 [24]. 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - Related Factors - **Lanthanum carbon**: The report presents data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, inventory, and daily output of lanthanum carbon [27]. - **Calcium carbide**: It shows data on the price, cost - profit,开工率, maintenance loss, and production of calcium carbide [30]. - **Liquid chlorine and raw salt**: Data on the price, production of liquid chlorine, and the price, monthly production of raw salt are provided [32]. - **Caustic soda**: Information on the price, cost - profit,开工率, production, maintenance volume, and inventory of caustic soda is given [35]. 3.7 PVC Fundamental - PVC Supply Trend - The report shows data on the capacity utilization rate, production profit, daily output, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of calcium carbide method and ethylene method PVC [39][41]. 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - The report presents data on the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, sales - production ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average开工率, and开工率 of different downstream products of PVC. It also includes data on real estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [44][46][48][54][57]. 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - The report shows data on exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [59]. 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Data on the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads are provided [61]. 3.11 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report presents the supply - demand balance sheet of PVC, including data on export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import from August 2024 to September 2025 [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes the market conditions of industrial silicon and polysilicon futures. For industrial silicon, the overall market is affected by factors such as supply - demand balance, cost, and inventory. For polysilicon, the supply - demand relationship also shows certain trends, with potential for subsequent market rebounds. The main logic for the overall market is that capacity mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change. The main influencing factors include cost increases, slow post - holiday demand recovery, and the supply - demand imbalance in the downstream polysilicon market [6][8][11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Industrial Silicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the supply of industrial silicon was 93,000 tons, a 1.09% increase from the previous week. The demand was 86,000 tons, a 7.50% increase. Polysilicon inventory was 226,000 tons, at a high level; organic silicon inventory was 55,100 tons, at a low level, with a production profit of - 708 yuan/ton, in a loss state, and a comprehensive operating rate of 70.59%, unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average. Alloy ingot inventory was 73,100 tons, at a high level. The cost support in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 production increased, with a loss of 3,020 yuan/ton. Overall, the fundamentals are bullish [6]. - **Basis**: On October 09, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China was 9,300 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 543,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The sample enterprise inventory was 162,500 tons, a 7.11% decrease. The main port inventory was 120,000 tons, unchanged. Overall, the inventory situation is bearish [6]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is upward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling is increasing, and the demand recovery is at a low level. The cost support is rising. The industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,505 - 8,775 [6]. 3.2 Daily View - Polysilicon - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the polysilicon production was 31,100 tons, a 0.32% increase from the previous week. The predicted production in October is 134,500 tons, a 3.46% increase from the previous month. The silicon wafer production last week was 12.83 GW, a 6.89% decrease, and the inventory was 167,800 tons, a 3.38% increase. The battery cell production showed short - term decreases but is expected to recover in the medium term. The component production also showed short - term decreases with medium - term recovery prospects. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [8]. - **Basis**: On October 09, the price of N - type dense material was 51,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 1,785 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is bullish [8]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory was 226,000 tons, a 10.78% increase, at a high level compared to the same period in history, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, which is bearish [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net long, and the long position is decreasing, which is bullish [8]. - **Expectation**: The supply scheduling continues to increase, while the demand shows a decline but may rebound later. The cost support remains stable. The polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 49,885 - 51,645 [8]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Industrial Silicon**: The prices of some futures contracts showed small fluctuations. The inventory of some regions and ports remained stable, while the sample enterprise inventory decreased. The production and operating rates of some regions remained unchanged [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of some futures contracts also showed fluctuations. The silicon wafer production and inventory, battery cell production and profit, and component production and inventory all had corresponding changes [16]. 3.4 Price - Basis and Delivery Product Spread Trends The report presents the historical trends of the basis of industrial silicon's main contract and the price spread between 421 and 553 silicon in East China, which helps to understand the price relationship between the spot and futures markets and different product specifications [18][19]. 3.5 Inventory - **Industrial Silicon**: The social inventory remained unchanged, the sample enterprise inventory decreased, and the main port inventory remained stable [6][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The weekly inventory increased, reaching a high level compared to the same period in history [8]. 3.6 Production and Capacity Utilization - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly production of sample enterprises in some regions remained unchanged, and the operating rate also showed little change [14]. - **Polysilicon**: The production showed an increasing trend, and the operating rate was affected by market demand [8]. 3.7 Cost - **Industrial Silicon**: The production cost in Xinjiang's sample oxygen - passing 553 production increased, and the production in some regions was in a loss state [6]. - **Polysilicon**: The average cost of the polysilicon industry remained stable, and the production profit was at a certain level [8]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance - **Industrial Silicon**: The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables show the production, import, export, and consumption of industrial silicon, and the overall balance situation varies [35][38]. - **Polysilicon**: The monthly supply - demand balance table shows the supply, import, export, and consumption of polysilicon, and the balance situation also changes over time [62]. 3.9 Downstream Market - **Organic Silicon**: The price, production, and inventory of DMC and other products showed corresponding changes. The operating rate of DMC remained stable, and the profit was in a loss state [41]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price, production, inventory, and demand of aluminum alloy products showed different trends. The import cost and profit of ADC12 also had corresponding changes [51]. - **Polysilicon**: The cost, price, production, and inventory of polysilicon and its downstream silicon wafers and battery cells all showed certain trends [59][65][67].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a volatile pattern in the short term, with the M2601 contract oscillating between 2900 and 2960. The market is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, Sino - US tariff negotiations, and the arrival of imported soybeans [8]. - The domestic soybean market is also in a volatile situation, with the A2511 contract ranging from 3900 to 4000. It is influenced by the cost of imported soybeans, the expected increase in domestic soybean demand, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate between 2900 and 2960, and the domestic soybean A2511 is expected to range from 3900 to 4000 [8][10]. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiations are at a stalemate, causing short - term negative impacts on US soybeans. The US soybean market is oscillating above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on soybean growth, harvest, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China remains at a relatively high level in October. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills decreased from a high level in October. The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig restocking, suppressing the expected price of soybean meal in October. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market will return to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory pressure of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and variable weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival of imported soybeans in China in October and the expected high - yield of US soybeans [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - Bearish factors: high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans, and the expected increase in new - season domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2900, with a basis of - 39, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 116.44 tons, a 2.48% increase from last week and a 13.54% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price is 4140, with a basis of 165, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 73.2 tons, a 0.21% increase from last week and a 6.35% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - For both soybean meal and soybeans, the long positions of the main players decreased, but capital flowed in [8][10]. Other Data - **Soybean and Meal Transaction Data**: From September 23 to October 9, the average transaction price and volume of soybean meal and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the report [15]. - **Soybean and Meal Price Data**: From September 23 to October 9, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal are provided [17]. - **Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 19 to October 9, the changes in warehouse receipts of soybeans and soybean meal are shown [19]. - **Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 are presented, including data on harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina from 2023 to 2025 are provided [33][34][37][38][39][40][41]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Reports**: The USDA's monthly supply - demand reports from March to September 2025 are included, with data on planting area, yield, production, etc. [42]. - **Soybean - related Market Conditions**: The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. The arrival of imported soybeans decreased from a high level in September but increased overall year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills decreased from a high level, while the inventory of soybean meal continued to increase. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased from a high level. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased following US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [43][45][46][48][52]. - **Pig - related Market Conditions**: The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price recently declined again, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit recently deteriorated [54][56][58][60].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall Outlook**: The supply pressure of asphalt is currently high, while the demand recovery is weak. The market is expected to experience narrow - range fluctuations in the short term, with the asphalt 2511 contract oscillating between 3354 - 3396 [8]. - **Supply - side**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% but a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The sample capacity utilization rate was 42.0062%, up 5.632 percentage points month - on - month. Sample enterprise production increased by 15.49% month - on - month, but the estimated device maintenance volume decreased by 14.02% month - on - month. Refineries increased production recently, raising supply pressure, but it may decrease next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The current demand for asphalt is lower than the historical average. The开工率 of heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membranes is either flat or down compared to the previous period and lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 596.95 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The loss of asphalt processing decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Market Factors**: Bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support. Bearish factors are insufficient demand for high - priced sources, overall downward demand, and stronger expectations of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10][11]. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply**: Supply pressure remains high, with refineries increasing production recently but a possible decrease in supply pressure next week [8]. - **Demand**: Demand recovery is weak, with current demand lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost**: Short - term cost support is expected to weaken due to the weakening of crude oil [8]. - **Other Aspects**: The basis shows a bullish sign with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. Inventories are showing a neutral trend with continuous destocking in social, factory, and port inventories. The futures price of the 11 - contract is below the MA20, showing a bearish sign. The net long position of the main contract has changed from short to long, showing a bullish sign [8]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Yesterday's Market Overview**: Various indicators such as futures contracts, inventories, and production showed different trends of increase or decrease. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.52% compared to the previous value [15]. - **Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend**: Provided the historical trend charts of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt [17]. - **Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis**: Included the spread trends of main contracts (such as 1 - 6, 6 - 12), the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil, the crude oil cracking spread, and the price - ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [20][23][26][30]. - **Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions**: Showed the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt [33]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis**: Included the profit trends of asphalt and the profit - spread trends between coking and asphalt [35][38]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - side**: Covered aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production (weekly and monthly), Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production, local refinery asphalt production, capacity utilization rate, and estimated maintenance loss volume [42][44][47]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Inventory**: Included exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and the inventory - to - stock ratio in factories [62][66][69]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Import and Export Situation**: Showed the export and import trends of asphalt and the import - price spread trend of South Korean asphalt [72][75]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Demand - side**: Included petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt 开工率 (by different types), and downstream 开工率 (such as shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane) [78][81][84]. - **Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presented the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand [104].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Rapeseed meal RM2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2400 - 2460. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season, and low inventory supports the market, but after the National Day, demand enters the off - season and Sino - Canadian trade negotiations are still uncertain, so the market will be affected by news and remain volatile in the short term [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures hit a high and then fell back due to the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed. With rumors of tariff cuts between China and Canada recently, it has returned to a volatile pattern in the short term [9]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal futures rebounded after hitting the bottom, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a small fluctuation in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2601 contract oscillated at a low level. The import volume of rapeseed remained stable in September, and the import cost was affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills continued to decline, and the weekly inventory of rapeseed meal remained flat. The amount of rapeseed crushed in oil mills decreased significantly [17][19][22]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the decreasing demand suppresses the market. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term export expectations, affecting domestic supply. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports was established, and a 75.8% import deposit was imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the reduction in Ukraine's rapeseed production is offset by the increase in Russia's production. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills is not large. Bearish factors: Domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - From September 23 to October 9, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 2968 - 2991, and the trading volume varied from 3.81 - 25.9 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2500 - 2560, and the trading volume was 0. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 431 - 468 [13]. - From September 23 to October 9, the price of rapeseed meal futures for the main 2601 contract was between 2395 - 2447, and for the far - month 2605 contract, it was between 2319 - 2343. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian was between 2500 - 2560 [15]. - From September 19 to October 9, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts decreased from 9248 to 9199 [16]. - Aquatic fish prices rebounded slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices remained stable [34]. 5. Position Data - The report does not provide specific position data analysis other than the fact that the main short positions decreased and funds flowed in [9].