1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - Demand side: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, flat month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - Cost side: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The processing loss of asphalt decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - Expectation: The refineries' recent production scheduling has reduced production, lowering supply pressure. The overall demand recovery stimulated by the peak season is lower than expected and sluggish; inventory is flat; with the weakening of crude oil, the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The refineries reduced production this week, but supply pressure may increase next week. In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2.413 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1% [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. Different types of asphalt and related product开工率 show mixed trends, with most below the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 3352 - 3394 [9]. - **Lido**: The relatively high - level of crude oil cost provides some support [12]. - **Risks**: High - priced supply has insufficient demand; overall demand is declining, and the expectation of economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening. The main risk points are the change in crude oil price and the profit difference trend between asphalt and coking products [13][15]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Overview**: The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased, and the inventory of different types decreased. For example, the 01 contract price decreased by 1.14%, and the social inventory decreased by 2.88% [17]. - **Price Trends**: The report provides trends of asphalt basis, spreads between main contracts, asphalt - crude oil price, crude oil cracking spread, and the ratio of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil [19][22][25]. - **Fundamental Analysis** - **Profit**: The asphalt profit and the profit difference between coking and asphalt show certain trends over time [37][40]. - **Supply**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, price of Ma Rui crude oil and Venezuelan crude oil production, local refinery asphalt production,开工率, and maintenance loss [44][46][49]. - **Inventory**: It involves exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export**: The report shows the trends of asphalt export, import, and the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][77][79]. - **Demand**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment), downstream machinery demand, asphalt开工率, and downstream开工情况 [80][83][86]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: A monthly asphalt supply - demand balance table is provided, showing data such as monthly production, import, export, and inventory [106].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai zinc fluctuating and falling, closing with a negative line and shrinking trading volume. Both long and short positions increased, with more short - position increases. The market may fluctuate and weaken in the short term. Technically, the price closed below the moving average system, losing its support. Short - term indicators suggest a weak trend, and the bearish force is dominant. The recommendation is that Shanghai zinc ZN2511 will fluctuate and weaken [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Information - In July 2025, global zinc plate production was 1.1515 million tons, consumption was 1.1629 million tons, with a supply shortage of 11,300 tons. From January to July, production was 7.9452 million tons, consumption was 8.1585 million tons, with a supply shortage of 213,300 tons. In July, global zinc ore production was 1.0656 million tons, and from January to July, it was 7.3437 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. - The spot price of zinc was 21,920, with a basis of +75, indicating a neutral situation [2]. - On September 23, LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 1,559 tons to 56,613 tons, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The previous trading day, Shanghai zinc fluctuated and fell, closing below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average pointing downwards, showing a bearish sign [2]. - The main net position was long, and long positions increased, showing a bullish sign [2]. 3.2 Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on September 23 - For different delivery months of zinc futures, prices generally showed a downward trend. For example, the contract 2510 had a settlement price of 21,995, opening at 22,095, and closing at 21,840, with a decline of 155. The trading volume of all contracts totaled 203,496 lots, and the trading value was 2.23400645 billion yuan [3]. 3.3 Domestic Main Spot Market on September 23 - The prices of various zinc - related products decreased. Zinc concentrate in Lin had a price of 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; zinc ingots in Shanghai were 21,920 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; galvanized sheets in China were 4,042 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton; galvanized pipes in China were 4,444 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan/ton; zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22,430 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton; zinc powder in Changsha was 27,150 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton; zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20,350 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; and secondary zinc oxide in Lin remained unchanged at 7,875 yuan/ton [4]. 3.4 National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics (September 11 - 22, 2025) - The total inventory of zinc ingots in major Chinese markets on September 22 was 1.446 million tons. Compared with September 15, it decreased by 50,000 tons, and compared with September 18, it decreased by 37,000 tons [5]. 3.5 Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on September 23 - The total zinc warrants in the futures exchange on September 23 were 56,613 tons, an increase of 1,559 tons. In Guangdong, warrants increased by 496 tons, and in Tianjin, they increased by 1,063 tons [6]. 3.6 LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on September 23 - LME zinc inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,775 tons. In Singapore, inventory decreased by 1,050 tons to 45,625 tons [7]. 3.7 National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price Summary on September 23 - Zinc concentrate prices in major cities decreased by 50 yuan/ton. For example, in Jiyuan, the price was 16,680 yuan/ton; in Kunming, it was also 16,680 yuan/ton [8]. 3.8 National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on September 23 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from major smelters decreased by 70 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Zhuzhou Smelter was 22,150 yuan/ton; from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 22,480 yuan/ton [12]. 3.9 Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned refined zinc production was 459,700 tons, and the actual production was 471,800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470,300 tons [14]. 3.10 Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee Market on September 23 - The processing fees for 50% zinc concentrate in different regions varied. For example, in Hohhot, the average processing fee was 3,900 yuan/metal ton; in Huizhou, it was 4,000 yuan/metal ton. The average import processing fee for 48% zinc concentrate was 100 US dollars/dry ton [16]. 3.11 Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on September 23 - In the trading volume ranking of zinc contracts zn2511, CITIC Futures had the highest trading volume of 40,422 lots, a decrease of 4,691 lots compared with the previous trading day. In the long - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 10,220 lots, an increase of 1,842 lots. In the short - position ranking, CITIC Futures had 18,617 lots, an increase of 356 lots [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures market showed a low - level oscillation. The spot market had a general negotiation atmosphere with fluctuating spot basis. The PTA factory inventory decreased slightly. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions. It's expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate mainly influenced by the cost side in the short term, and attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices and polyester production and sales [5]. - MEG: The price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The basis weakened significantly. The port inventory increased from a low level, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the fourth quarter. The market sentiment is dragged down by new device progress and the weak terminal market. It's predicted that the price of ethylene glycol will adjust at a low level in the short term, and subsequent attention should be paid to device and production - sales changes [6]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The spot price of PTA on September 24th was 4468, with a basis of - 88 for the 01 contract, indicating a premium on the futures market. The PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions. The 9 - month goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with a price negotiation range around 4450 - 4490. The 10 - month goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 70 to the 01 contract. The current mainstream spot basis was 01 - 79 [5]. - MEG: On Tuesday, the price of ethylene glycol declined weakly. The basis weakened significantly during the day, with the spot negotiation price at a premium of 77 - 91 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. In the afternoon, the futures price rebounded slightly after reaching a low level, and the basis stabilized. The price of recent shipping goods in US dollars dropped to 504 - 505 US dollars/ton in the afternoon. The spot price was 4292, with a basis of 80 for the 01 contract, indicating a discount on the futures market. The inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below it. The main positions were net short with an increase in short positions [6][7]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Balance Tables** - PTA: From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity increased, with the production capacity reaching 9472 in December 2025. The production load, output, supply, and demand all showed certain fluctuations. For example, in September 2025, the production capacity was 9172, the production load was 83.00%, the output was 626, the total supply was 626, and the total demand was 624 [12]. - MEG: From 2024 to 2025, the total production and supply of ethylene glycol also changed. For instance, in September 2025, the total production was 58, the total supply was 234, and the total demand was 233 [13]. - **Price - related Data** - Included data on bottle - chip spot prices, production margins, start - up rates, inventory, PTA basis, MEG inter - month spreads, basis, spot spreads, and processing margins, covering multiple years from 2020 to 2025 [16][19][23][24][30][33][40]. - **Inventory - related Data** - Included data on PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, and various polyester fiber inventories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms, spanning from 2020 to 2025 [42][44][47]. - **Start - up Rate - related Data** - Included data on the start - up rates of polyester upstream (PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol) and downstream (PTA industrial chain polyester factories, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms), covering the years from 2020 to 2025 [53][57]. - **Profit - related Data** - Included data on PTA processing fees, MEG production margins from different production methods (methanol - based, coal - based syngas, naphtha - integrated, ethylene - based), and production margins of polyester fibers (short - fiber, DTY, POY, FDY), covering the years from 2022 to 2025 [62][63][66]. 3.5 Influence Factor Summary - **Positive Factors** - The EIA crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending September 12th decreased by 928500 barrels, with a larger decline than expected. The strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 504000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventory decreased by 29600 barrels. Gasoline inventory decreased by 234700 barrels, while refined oil inventory increased by 404600 barrels [8]. - With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there is a slight expectation of demand activation in the market [9]. - Yisheng Hainan's 2 - million - ton device was shut down for maintenance, with an expected restart in November [10]. - **Negative Factors** - The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [11].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-9-24 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：玻璃生产利润回落，行业冷修高位，开工率、产量下降至历史同期低位；下游深加工 订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1080元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1183元/吨，基差为-103元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6090.80万重量箱，较前一周减少1.10%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：玻璃基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、"反内卷"政策影响下，浮法玻璃行业存产能出清预期。 利空 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡偏弱。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体 高位。需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素 整体供过于求仍明显，理论出口利润继续创新高，但受政策等原因影响出口数量回落。交割品现 货1700（-0），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差42，升贴水比例2.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存142.1万吨（+5.1），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡偏弱，国 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-9-24 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、年内检修高峰期来临，产量预计将有所下滑。 利空： 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂检修较少，供给仍处高位；下游浮法玻璃日熔量平稳，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋 势，终端需求一般，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1190元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1273元/吨，基差为-83元，期货 升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存175.56万吨，较前一周减少2.33%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 利多： 1、23年以来，纯碱产能大 ...

大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20670，基差-15，贴水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周减765吨至 127734吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线下，20均线向上运行；中性。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 数据来源：Wind 期 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年9月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 6、预期：今日关注欧英美9月PMI数据、美联储主席和委员讲话、美国二季度经常帐。 美联储降息预期高涨，美元指数回落，金价继续走高，再创新高。沪金溢价继续收 敛至-12元/克，人民币走强预期强劲。降息预期高涨再度推高金价，临近期权合约 到期，或有大幅波动可能。 2、基差：黄金期货846.5，现货840.5，基差-6，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单57429千克，不变；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向上，k线在20日均线上方；偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，主力多减；偏多 白银 1、基本面：降息预期高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of asphalt are slightly positive, with the basis being positive and inventory being neutral, while the market sentiment and main positions are negative [7][10]. - The refinery's recent production schedule has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. - The positive factor is that the relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support, while the negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [12][13]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high on the supply side, and the demand recovery is weak on the demand side [14]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned asphalt production in China was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 36.3734%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.06 percentage points. The refinery has reduced production recently, reducing supply pressure, but supply pressure may increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 34.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 20.2298%, a month - on - month increase of 1.71 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 30.31%, a month - on - month increase of 1.69 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 36.57%, a month - on - month increase of 0.50 percentage points [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 556.31 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 706.6457 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.97%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the weakening of crude oil, the support is expected to weaken in the short - term [8]. - **Expectation**: The refinery's production has decreased, reducing supply pressure. The overall demand recovery in the peak season is lower than expected and remains sluggish, with inventory remaining flat. Crude oil prices are weakening, and cost support is expected to weaken in the short - term. The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short - term, with the asphalt 2511 contract fluctuating between 3379 - 3423 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of various asphalt contracts have generally declined. For example, the 01 contract decreased by 0.92%, the 02 contract decreased by 0.95%, and the 03 contract decreased by 1.22% [17]. - **Inventory Changes**: Social inventory decreased by 2.88% to 1,146,000 tons, factory inventory decreased by 4.53% to 653,000 tons, and port diluted asphalt inventory decreased by 20.00% to 240,000 tons [10][17]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Price Trends**: The report presents the price trends of asphalt in different regions, such as the price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt, showing the price changes over different time periods [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt profit and the profit spread between coking and asphalt, reflecting the profit situation of asphalt production [37][40]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: It includes aspects such as shipment volume, diluted asphalt port inventory, production volume, production capacity utilization rate, and maintenance loss volume. For example, the sample enterprise shipment volume was 313,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.10%, and the sample enterprise production volume was 607,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16% [7][44]. - **Inventory Analysis**: It covers exchange warehouse receipts, social inventory, factory inventory, and factory inventory inventory ratio, showing the inventory status of asphalt [64][68][71]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: The report shows the trends of asphalt exports and imports, as well as the import price difference of South Korean asphalt [74][79]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: It includes petroleum coke production, apparent consumption, downstream demand (such as highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, infrastructure investment completion), downstream machinery demand (such as asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator working hours), asphalt开工率 (including heavy - traffic asphalt, construction asphalt, modified asphalt, etc.), and downstream开工情况 (such as shoe - material SBS modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, etc.) [80][86][90]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet, including monthly production, import, export, social inventory, factory inventory, port inventory, and downstream demand [106][107].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - For industrial silicon, the supply production schedule has increased and is near the historical average level, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8815 - 9085 [6]. - For polysilicon, the supply production schedule continues to decrease, while the demand for wafers, cells, and components continues to increase. Overall demand shows continuous recovery, and cost support has strengthened. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 50040 - 51940 [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the industrial silicon supply was 92,000 tons, a 2.22% week - on - week increase [6]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 80,000 tons, a 2.56% week - on - week increase. Polysilicon inventory is at a low level, wafers and cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is at a high level, with a production profit of - 447 yuan/ton and a comprehensive开工 rate of 71.12%, flat week - on - week and lower than the historical average. Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is at a high level [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 3050 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 22, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9200 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 250 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 543,000 tons, a 0.74% week - on - week increase; sample enterprise inventory is 174,950 tons, a 0.57% week - on - week increase; major port inventory is 120,000 tons, an 0.84% week - on - week increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, with an increase in short positions [6]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the polysilicon output was 31,000 tons, a 3.79% month - on - month decrease. The production schedule for September is expected to be 126,700 tons [8]. - Demand: Last week, the wafer output was 13.92GW, a 0.28% week - on - week increase, and the inventory was 168,700 tons, a 1.93% week - on - week increase. Currently, wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% month - on - month increase. The cell output in August was 58.27GW, a 0.13% month - on - month increase [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 36,150 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 15,000 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On September 22, the basis of the 11 - contract was 1660 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 204,000 tons, a 6.84% week - on - week decrease, at a low level compared to the same period in history [8]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below MA20 [8]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, with a decrease in long positions [8]. 2. Fundamental/Position Data Industrial Silicon - Price: Most contract prices of industrial silicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, while some spot prices increased slightly [14]. - Inventory: Various types of inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, showed different degrees of increase [14]. - Production and Capacity Utilization: The weekly output of sample enterprises increased, and the output in Xinjiang increased significantly [14]. - Cost and Profit: The cost and profit of industrial silicon in different regions showed different trends, with some regions in a loss state [14]. Polysilicon - Price: Most contract prices of polysilicon futures decreased compared to the previous value, and the prices of wafers, cells, and components showed different degrees of stability or slight changes [16]. - Inventory: The inventory of wafers decreased, while the inventory of cells increased, and the inventory of components decreased [16]. - Production and Demand: The production of wafers, cells, and components increased, and the export of cells increased significantly [16].