1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [11] - **PVC2605 Forecast**: PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 4745 - 4817 [7] 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Likely Positive Factors**: Supply restart, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - **Likely Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and poor recovery of domestic demand [11] - **Main Risk Points**: The implementation degree of domestic demand policies, export trends, crude oil trends, and the cost support trends of caustic soda and calcium carbide method [12] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply Side**: In November 2025, PVC production was 2.07926 million tons, a 2.29% month - on - month decrease. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.38%, a 0.03 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method enterprises' production was 335,490 tons, a 2.40% month - on - month decrease, and ethylene method enterprises' production was 140,960 tons, a 2.99% month - on - month decrease. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with a slight increase in scheduled production [6] - **Demand Side**: The overall downstream operating rate was 45.39%, a 3.5 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 31.43%, a 3.7 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 37.6%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 67.14%, a 6.79 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 81.36%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [6] - **Cost Side**: The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 986.28 yuan/ton, with a 10.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 469.36 yuan/ton, with a 9.00% month - on - month reduction in losses, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2052.55 yuan/ton, with a 1.90% month - on - month increase in profit, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [6] - **Basis**: On December 24, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4550 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 231 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory was 328,515 tons, a 4.58% month - on - month decrease. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 245,315 tons, a 5.83% month - on - month decrease. Ethylene method factory inventory was 83,200 tons, a 0.71% month - on - month decrease. Social inventory was 510,600 tons, a 1.31% month - on - month decrease. The inventory days of production enterprises in stock were 5.3 days, a 2.75% month - on - month decrease. It is bearish [7] - **Disk**: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above MA20. It is bullish [7] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. It is bearish [7] - **Expectation**: The cost of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method is strengthening, and the overall cost is strengthening. Supply pressure decreased this week, and next week, maintenance is expected to decrease with an increase in scheduled production. The overall inventory is at a high level, and current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics [7] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - Presents a table of yesterday's market overview, including various price indicators, month - to - month spreads, inventory data, operating rates, and profit indicators [13] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, along with the East China market price and the main contract closing price [16] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Shows the price trend, trading volume, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract [19] - **Spread Analysis - Main Contract Spread**: Displays the historical spread trends of different contracts, such as 1 - 9 and 5 - 9 spreads [22] 3.5 PVC Fundamental - Calcium Carbide Method - **Lancoke**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, inventory, and daily output trends of Lancoke [25] - **Calcium Carbide**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, maintenance loss, and production trends of calcium carbide [28] - **Liquid Chlorine and Raw Salt**: Analyzes the price, production trends of liquid chlorine and raw salt [31] - **Caustic Soda**: Analyzes the price, cost - profit, operating rate, production, maintenance volume, apparent consumption, inventory, and double - ton price difference trends of caustic soda [33][35] 3.6 PVC Fundamental - Supply Trend - Analyzes the capacity utilization rates of the calcium carbide method and the ethylene method, the profit trends of the two methods, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, weekly capacity utilization rate, and weekly production of sample enterprises [37][39] 3.7 PVC Fundamental - Demand Trend - Analyzes the daily sales volume of traders, weekly pre - sales volume, weekly production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and operating rates of different downstream products (profiles, pipes, films, paste resin) [42][45] - Analyzes the profit, cost, monthly production, and apparent consumption of paste resin [47] - Analyzes real - estate investment completion, housing construction area, new housing starts, commercial housing sales area, and housing completion area [49] - Analyzes social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) year - on - year [51] 3.8 PVC Fundamental - Inventory - Analyzes the trends of exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [53] 3.9 PVC Fundamental - Ethylene Method - Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, the FOB price difference of the ethylene method (Tianjin - Taiwan), and the import price difference of vinyl chloride (Jiangsu - Far East CIF) [55] 3.10 PVC Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Presents the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [58]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1. Views and Strategies for Soybean Meal - Soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate between 2730 and 2790. The market is influenced by factors such as the increase in US soybean exports, technical adjustments, short - term improvement in demand, and the discount of spot prices. It is expected to maintain a short - term oscillatory pattern, with a neutral outlook. The basis is positive, but the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are decreasing with capital inflow. Overall, it is expected to be short - term oscillatory and weak [9]. 2.2. Views and Strategies for Soybeans - Soybean A2605 is predicted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The market is affected by China's increased procurement of US soybeans, technical adjustments, the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans over imported ones. It is also influenced by the follow - up implementation of the China - US trade agreement and the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans. The outlook is neutral. The basis is neutral, the inventory is high, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main short positions are increasing with capital inflow. The cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans supports the bottom, but the high - volume arrival of imported soybeans and domestic soybean production growth suppress the price [11]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1. Daily Hints - Not explicitly presented in the provided content 3.2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of China's procurement and US soybean weather are uncertain. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above 1000 points in the short term. The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while the inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high. The planting and growing weather of South American soybeans is relatively normal, and soybean meal has returned to a range - bound oscillation. The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, but the increase in soybean meal demand in December has supported the price. The high inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing area, and the impact of the preliminary China - US trade agreement have led to a short - term range - bound oscillation of soybean meal, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of China - US trade negotiations [13]. 3.3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns 3.3.1. Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: The preliminary agreement on China - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; there is no pressure on the inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China remained high in December; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. 3.3.2. Soybeans - Bullish factors: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expectation of increased demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. - Bearish factors: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the increase in the output of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectation [16]. 3.4. Fundamental Data 3.4.1. Price and Transaction Data - From December 16th to 24th, the trading average price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 and 3138, and the trading volume was between 3.55 and 18.45 million tons. The trading average price of rapeseed meal was between 2490 and 2520, and the trading volume was 0 [17]. - From December 17th to 24th, the prices of soybean futures and soybean meal futures fluctuated, and the prices of soybean and soybean meal spot remained relatively stable [19]. 3.4.2. Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply generally increased, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed an upward trend [32]. - Domestic soybean supply and demand balance sheet shows that from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume generally increased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also increased [33]. 3.4.3. Planting and Harvesting Progress - In the 2023/24 season, the sowing and harvesting progress of Argentine soybeans was generally in line with the five - year average [34]. - In 2024, the sowing, growing, and harvesting progress of US soybeans showed different trends compared with the previous year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38]. - In the 2024/25 season, the planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [39][40][41]. - In the 2025/26 season, the planting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans was compared with the previous year and the five - year average [42][43]. 3.5. Position Data - Not provided in the report 3.6. Other Data and Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - The arrival of imported soybeans increased slightly in December, showing an overall year - on - year growth [47]. - The inventory of oil - mill soybeans remained high, while the inventory of soybean meal decreased from a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills rebounded to a high level, and the stocking demand increased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remained at a relatively high level, and the output of soybean meal in October increased year - on - year. The import cost of Brazilian soybeans decreased with the oscillation of US soybeans, and the market profit fluctuated slightly [48][50][52][53]. - The pig inventory continued to rise, the sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The pig price fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs fluctuated slightly. The domestic pig - farming profit fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The supply side shows that the planned asphalt production in December 2025 is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The refineries have reduced production recently, alleviating supply pressure. The demand side is affected by the off - season, with overall demand falling short of expectations and remaining sluggish. The inventory situation is neutral, with social inventory decreasing, factory inventory increasing, and port inventory decreasing. The cost is supported by the strengthening of crude oil in the short term. It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2967 - 3025 [7][8]. - The positive factors include the relatively high cost of crude oil providing some support. The negative factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods, the overall downward trend of demand, and the increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States. The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The weekly capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples is 29.1826%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.72 percentage points. The output of sample enterprises is 487,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.40%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise devices is 955,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Refineries have reduced production, and supply pressure may be reduced next week [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.6%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of modified asphalt is 7.6609%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 percentage points, lower than the historical average; the开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 24%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00 percentage points, higher than the historical average; the开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 27%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.10 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 290 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 14.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 880.1214 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss has decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking has decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, short - term support is expected to strengthen [8]. - **Basis**: On December 24, the spot price in Shandong was 2920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract was - 76 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. It is bearish [8]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 714,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.97%; the factory inventory is 594,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.51%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 270,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 42.55%. Social inventory is continuously decreasing, factory inventory is continuously increasing, and port inventory is continuously decreasing. It is neutral [8]. - **Market**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes above MA20. It is neutral [8]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing. It is bearish [8]. - **Expectation**: Refineries have recently reduced production, reducing supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, demand is sluggish and fails to meet expectations. Inventory remains stable. With the strengthening of crude oil, cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the 2602 contract of asphalt will fluctuate in the range of 2967 - 3025 [8]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: The report presents the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 to 2025, showing the price relationship between the spot and futures [19][20][21]. - **Spread Analysis** - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: It presents the price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26][27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: It shows the crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: It presents the price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional Market Price Trend**: It shows the price trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: It presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profits from 2020 to 2025 [41][42][43]. - **Supply - Side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: It presents the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Production Volume**: It shows the weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Marey Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: It presents the price trend of Marey crude oil and the monthly production trend of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025 [54][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [58][59]. - **开工 Rate**: It presents the weekly开工 rate trends of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [61][62]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: It shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: It presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 to 2025 [66][67][68]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory Inventory - Inventory Ratio**: It presents the historical trends of the factory inventory - inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, as well as the import price spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][77][80]. - **Demand - Side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: It presents the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 [88][89]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: It presents the historical trends of new local special bonds from 2019 to 2025 and the year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion from 2020 to 2024 [90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the sales volume trends of domestic excavators, and the sales volume trends of road rollers from 2020 to 2025 [92][93][95]. - **Asphalt开工 Rate** - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工 Rate**: It presents the historical开工 rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工 Rate by Use**: It shows the historical开工 rate trends of building asphalt, modified asphalt, and road - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [100][101][103]. - **Downstream开工 Situation**: It presents the historical开工 rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including production, import, export, downstream demand, and inventory [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market has returned to a volatile state waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The spot demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season, and the low inventory supports the market. The short - term market is affected by soybean meal and will maintain the range - bound pattern [9]. - Rapeseed meal futures have declined with fluctuations, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations. The spot premium has remained at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal of the 2605 contract has narrowed slightly [18][20]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2605 will fluctuate in the range of 2300 - 2360. The market is affected by soybean meal and is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term market will maintain a volatile pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday. The spot market supply is expected to be tight in the short term, and the demand reduction suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the Sino - Canadian trade issue has affected the short - term export and reduced the domestic supply expectation [11]. - The preliminary anti - dumping investigation of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed has found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final ruling result is still uncertain [11]. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. The impact of the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict has offset each other. There is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Concerns - **Bullish factors**: The preliminary anti - dumping determination of Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed and the imposition of import deposits; oil mills have no pressure on rapeseed meal inventory [12]. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal has entered the off - season; the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Chinese imports of Canadian rapeseed is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: From December 16th to 24th, the average transaction price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3102 - 3138 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2520 yuan/ton. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly [13]. - **Inventory data**: The rapeseed meal inventory is 0.02 million tons, which is the same as last week and a 99.29% decrease compared to the same period last year. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills remains low, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level [9][25]. 3.5 Position Data - The short positions of the main players have decreased, and funds have flowed in, showing a bearish trend [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to have a supply surplus, with different institutions providing varying surplus estimates. The sugar price is currently in a short - term rebound phase, and it is expected to oscillate between 5200 - 5300 [4][5][9] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - No information provided in the given content 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply surplus. ISO expects a 163 - million - ton surplus, DATAGRO has revised its surplus estimate from 280 million tons to 100 million tons, Czarnikow has raised its estimate to 740 million tons, and StoneX predicts a 370 - million - ton surplus. As of the end of October 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 25/26 season in China was 883,000 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 91,600 tons, and the sales rate was 10.37%. In November 2025, China imported 440,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 90,000 tons, and the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 114,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 108,200 tons [4] - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5410, and the basis for the 05 contract is 148, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price [6] - **Inventory**: As of the end of October in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the industrial inventory was 791,400 tons [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [6] - **Likely Positive Factors**: The sugar production in Brazil in the 26/27 season may decline, the syrup tariff has increased, and American cola has changed its formula to use sucrose [7] - **Likely Negative Factors**: The global sugar production has increased, there is a supply surplus in the new season, the foreign sugar price has dropped to around 15 cents per pound, the import profit window has opened, and the import impact has increased [7] 3.3 Today's Focus - No information provided in the given content 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Forecast by Institutions**: StoneX predicts a 3.7 - billion - ton surplus in the 2025/26 season due to increased production in Brazil, India, and Thailand and weak global consumption growth; ISO predicts a 1.63 - billion - ton surplus because global sugar production is expected to increase by 3.15% while consumption only grows by 0.6%; Datagro predicts a 1.53 - billion - ton surplus as the global supply is expected to shift from shortage to surplus [32] - **Sugar - related Data in China**: From 2023/24 to 2025/26, the sugar - crop planting area, harvest area, and sugar production have generally shown an upward trend. The import volume is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025/26, and the consumption volume is expected to be 15.7 million tons. The international sugar price is in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents per pound, and the domestic sugar price is in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan per ton [34] - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents per pound, and the cost of out - of - quota imports was about 5086 yuan per ton. In mid - June 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 16.086 cents per pound, and the import cost was between 5679 - 5708.6 yuan per ton [37] 3.5 Position Data - No information provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main factors driving the current rebound in cotton are a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US, an increase in exports on a month - on - month basis, stronger restocking willingness among downstream enterprises due to rising cotton prices, and significant policy - controlled reduction in the planting area of Xinjiang cotton in the new year. The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it is expected to continue its volatile upward trend. However, the price may not rise steadily but instead fluctuate upwards in a "three - steps - forward - two - steps - back" pattern. A bullish mindset is recommended, and short - term long positions can be taken when the price pulls back [4]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the cotton market. Bullish factors include the regulation of Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026 with an expected reduction of over 10%, pre - holiday restocking by downstream enterprises, and a 10% reduction in export tariffs to the US compared to the previous period. Bearish factors are a decline in overall foreign trade orders, an increase in inventory, a large amount of new cotton on the market, and the current traditional off - season for consumption [5][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, the planting area of Xinjiang cotton is expected to be reduced by over 10%. According to the ICAC November report, the output in the 2025/2026 season is 25.4 million tons, and consumption is 25 million tons. The USDA November report shows that the output in the 2025/2026 season is 26.145 million tons, consumption is 25.883 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.532 million tons. In November, textile and clothing exports were $23.869 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.12%. In November, China imported 120,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year increase of 9.4%, and 150,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 25%. According to the Ministry of Agriculture's December 2025/2026 forecast, the output is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 15,271 yuan, and the basis for the 05 contract is 1,091 yuan, indicating a premium over futures [4]. - **Inventory**: The Ministry of Agriculture of China estimates the ending inventory in December 2025/2026 to be 8.35 million tons [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position has increased, and the main - force trend is unclear [4]. - **Expectation**: The short - term bullish factors for the main 05 contract remain unchanged, and it is expected to continue its volatile upward trend. A bullish mindset is recommended, and short - term long positions can be taken when the price pulls back [4]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the total global output is 26.081 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons compared to the previous forecast; consumption is 25.873 million tons, a slight decrease; imports are 9.522 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons; exports are 9.524 million tons, a decrease of 56,000 tons; and the ending inventory is 16.541 million tons, an increase of 9,000 tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: In 2025/2026, the output is 25.39956 million tons, consumption is 25.00778 million tons, and the ending inventory is 16.22785 million tons, with an inventory - to - consumption ratio of 0.65 [13]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Forecast**: According to the Ministry of Agriculture, in the 2025/2026 season, the output is 6.7 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.6 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.35 million tons [4]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. - The main logic currently revolves around the relatively loose global fundamentals of oils and fats. The main risk is the El Nino weather [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views - **Soybean Oil** - Fundamental: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, and the production cut is less than expected. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - Basis: The spot price of soybean oil is 8208, with a basis of 444, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase [2]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [2]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract increased [2]. - Expectation: The soybean oil contract Y2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 7600 - 8000 [2]. - **Palm Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil, but it will enter the production - increase season, and the supply of palm oil will increase [3]. - Basis: The spot price of palm oil is 8520, with a basis of 32, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease [3]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [3]. - Main Position: The short positions of the main palm oil contract decreased [3]. - Expectation: The palm oil contract P2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8300 - 8700 [3]. - **Rapeseed Oil** - Fundamental: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, and it will enter the production - increase season, with an increase in palm oil supply [4]. - Basis: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 9668, with a basis of 688, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4]. - Inventory: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase [4]. - Market: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward [4]. - Main Position: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract decreased [4]. - Expectation: The rapeseed oil contract OI2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8800 - 9200 [4]. Recent利多利空 Analysis - **Likely to Rise**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of US soybeans remains around 4%, indicating a tight supply. There is a tremor season for palm oil [5]. - **Likely to Fall**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats continues to accumulate. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润企稳。供需端，农膜需 求逐渐走弱，旺季结束包装膜订单回落。当前LL交割品现货价6220（-10），基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2605合约基差-188，升贴水比例-2.9%，偏空； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.1万吨（-3.2），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：LLDPE主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：塑料主力合约盘面偏弱，基本面供过于求，产业库存中性，下游需求转淡，预计PE 今日走势震荡 • LLDPE概述： • 利多 • 1、成本支撑 • 利空 • 1、下游需求同比偏弱 • 2、四季度新增投产多 • 主要逻辑：供过于求，国内宏观政策 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation with supply disruptions, relaxed scrap - copper policies, and a marginal improvement in the manufacturing PMI [2]. - The basis shows a discount to futures, which is bearish; the inventory situation is neutral; the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average with an upward - running 20 - day moving average, which is bullish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [2]. - Geopolitical disturbances remain, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disruptions with smelter production cuts and relaxed scrap - copper policies. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from last month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 94810 with a basis of - 1290, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - **Inventory**: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Disk**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - running [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main net positions are short, and short positions increased [2]. - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances remain, the Grasberg Block Cave mine event in Indonesia is fermenting, and the copper price has reached a new high and will run at a high level in the short term [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influential Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are considered in the logic, but no clear separation between positive and negative factors is given [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: On December 24th, copper inventory decreased by 1550 to 157025 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 6416 tons to 95805 tons compared to last week [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: Bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees have declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - The market is expected to be in a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. - The China annual supply - demand balance table shows production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance data from 2018 - 2024. For example, in 2024, production was 12060000 tons, imports were 3730000 tons, exports were 460000 tons, apparent consumption was 15340000 tons, actual consumption was 15230000 tons, and the supply - demand balance was a surplus of 110000 tons [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Views 2.1沪镍 - Short - term strong operation, but price is far from the moving average, need to pay attention to risks [2] 2.2不锈钢 - Strong operation, short - sellers should wait and see [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - On December 24th, the price of SHFE nickel main contract was 128,000, up 4,560 from the previous day; LME nickel was 15,660, up 20; stainless steel main contract was 13,075, up 170. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 130,200, up 4,950 [9] 3.2 Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of December 24th, LME nickel inventory was 255,696, an increase of 1,092; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 38,428, a decrease of 193; total inventory was 294,124, an increase of 899 [12] 3.3 Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On December 19th, Wuxi inventory was 581,200 tons, Foshan inventory was 307,700 tons, and national inventory was 1,042,100 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons month - on - month. On December 24th, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 47,580, a decrease of 125 [16][17] 3.4 Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On December 24th, the price of laterite nickel ore CIF was stable, with Ni1.5% at 55 dollars/wet ton and Ni0.9% at 29 dollars/wet ton. High - nickel ferronickel was 894 yuan/nickel point, up 4 [21] 3.5 Stainless Steel Production Cost - Traditional cost was 12,786, scrap steel production cost was 13,157, and low - nickel + pure nickel cost was 17,060 [23] 3.6 Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 124,999 yuan/ton [25]