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大越期货沪铜早报-20251224
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 01:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply side of copper has disturbances, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The overall situation is neutral. - The spot price is 93,540, with a basis of -490, indicating a discount to the futures, which is bearish. - On December 23, copper inventories increased by 825 to 158,575 tons, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) copper inventories increased by 6,416 tons from the previous week to 95,805 tons, which is neutral. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upward, which is bullish. - The main net position is short, changing from long to short, which is bearish. - Geopolitical disturbances persist, and the incident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia has fermented. Copper prices have reached a new historical high and are expected to remain at a high level in the short term. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policy, and marginal improvement in PMI but still in contraction range [2] - **Basis**: Spot price at 93,540, basis - 490, discount to futures [2] - **Inventory**: December 23 copper inventory increase of 825 to 158,575 tons, SHFE copper inventory increase of 6,416 tons from last week to 95,805 tons [2] - **Disk**: Closing price above 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average moving upward [2] - **Main Position**: Main net position short, changing from long to short [2] - **Expectation**: Geopolitical disturbances, new historical high in copper prices, short - term high - level operation [2] Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation are mentioned as logical factors, but specific classification of bullish and bearish factors is not clearly elaborated [3] Spot - Information about spot includes place, mid - price, change, and inventory details such as type, total amount, and change, but specific numerical values are not filled in the provided table [6] 期现价差 - No specific content is provided in the report regarding the analysis of the futures - spot price difference [7] Exchange Inventory - No specific content is provided in the report regarding exchange inventory analysis [11] Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13] Processing Fee - Processing fee has declined [15] CFTC - No specific content is provided in the report regarding CFTC analysis [17] Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight - balance state. A detailed Chinese annual supply - demand balance table for copper is provided, showing production, import, export, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance from 2018 to 2024 [19][21]
沪锌期货早报-20251224
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-24 01:30
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月24日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号:F3023048 投资咨询证号: Z0013626 联系方式:0575-85225791 4、盘面:昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势,收20日均线之上,20日均线向上;偏多。 5、主力持仓:主力净空头,空减;偏空。 6、预期:LME库存仓单开始减少;上期所仓单继续减少;沪锌ZN2602:震荡 回落。 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面:外媒10月19日消息:世界金属统计局(WBMS)公布最新数据显 示,2025年9月,全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨;偏多。 2、基差:现货23200,基 ...
大越期货甲醇周报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:48
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 甲醇周报 (12.15 -12.19 ) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 观点与策略 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每周评论 2 基本面数据 3 检修状况 4 甲醇周评:驱动因素不同预计下周国内甲醇延续区域性走势。内地方面,考虑到冬季雨雪天气对运输造 成影响,上游甲醇工厂仍以低库存操作为主,且据悉产区部分甲醇企业有一定库存压力,出货需求下不排除 进一步降价让利运费可能。销区来看,近期产区甲醇价格回落且局部跌幅明显较大,对鲁北地区或有一定冲 击,但同时运费坚挺对到货价格有一定支撑,而烯烃需求增量明确对鲁南地区形成有力支撑,预计销区下周 行情窄幅震荡。港口方面,海外开工和发货量下降和国内卸货拉垮下港口去库支撑市场情绪,但不可忽略的 因素是,12月港口到港排期量宏大,在浙江主力烯烃企业 ...
大越期货2025-12-23甲醇早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:42
CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-23甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号:F3048432 投资咨询证号:Z0015557 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605: 1、基本面:驱动因素不同预计本周国内甲醇延续区域性走势。内地方面,考虑到冬季雨雪天气对运输造成影响,上游 甲醇工厂仍以低库存操作为主,且据悉产区部分甲醇企业有一定库存压力,出货需求下不排除进一步降价让利运费可 能。销区来看,近期产区甲醇价格回落且局部跌幅明显较大,对鲁北地区或有一定冲击,但同时运费坚挺对到货价格有 一定支撑,而烯烃需求增量明确对鲁南地区形成有力支撑,预计销区本周行情窄幅震荡。港口方面,海外开工和发货量 下降和国内卸货拉垮下港口去库支撑市场情绪,但不可忽略的因素是,12月港口到港排期量宏大,在浙江主力烯烃企 ...
大越期货贵金属早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:21
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 贵金属早报—— 2025年12月23日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号: F3051846 投资咨询证号: Z0015764 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 利多: 利空: 逻辑: 1、基本面:圣诞假期,科技股再撑美股走高,金价跟随银价上涨,刷新历史最高; 美国三大股指全线收涨,欧洲三大股指收盘小幅下跌;美债收益率集体上涨,10年 期美债收益率涨2.74个基点报4.165%;美元指数跌0.46%报98.26,离岸人民币对美 元小幅贬值报7.0336;COMEX黄金期货涨2.13%报4480.60美元/盎司;中性 2、基差:黄金期货1000.86,现货994.2,基差-6.62,现货贴水期货;偏空 3、库存:黄金期货仓单91716千克,不变;偏空 4、盘面:20日均线 ...
大越期货尿素早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:17
Group 1: Report Summary - The report is a urea morning report dated December 23, 2025, provided by the Investment Consulting Department of Dayue Futures [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is mainly on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The bullish factor is inventory de - stocking, and the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand [5] Group 4: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Fundamentals - The current daily production and operating rate are stable, the comprehensive inventory has declined, and the de - stocking pattern is obvious. The agricultural and industrial demand is on - demand, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine are stable. The export internal - external price difference is large, the short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic urea supply still exceeds demand. The spot price of the delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4] Basis - The basis of the UR2605 contract is - 8, and the premium - discount ratio is - 0.5%, which is neutral [4] Inventory - The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), which is bearish [4] Futures Disk - The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] Main Position - The net position of the UR main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [4] Expectation - The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is being de - stocked, short - term export demand has declined, and the domestic oversupply is still obvious [4] Spot and Futures Quotes - The price of the spot delivery product is 1690 (unchanged), the price of the 05 contract is 1698 (+1), the basis is - 8 (- 1), the UR comprehensive inventory is 1.318 million tons (- 40,000 tons), etc. [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 to 2024, the urea production capacity has been increasing year - by year, with growth rates ranging from 8.4% to 15.5%. The production, net import volume, apparent consumption, etc. have also shown certain changes. For example, in 2024, the production capacity was 4418.5, the production was 3425, and the net import volume was 360 [9]
大越期货聚烯烃早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:17
Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 23, 2025 [2] - Author: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today due to weak fundamentals, oversupply, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand [4][6] Summary by Section LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6,250 (-130), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is 10, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.2%, which is neutral [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 523,000 tons (+15,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract has turned long, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [4] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [5] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [5] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to strong propane prices. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, with a decline in order volume, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6,150 (-30), with overall bearish fundamentals [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is 31, with a premium - discount ratio of 0.5%, which is neutral [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 538,000 tons (+1,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract has increased, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventories, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to show a volatile trend today [6] - **Likely Factors**: Cost support [7] - **Negative Factors**: Weak downstream demand year - on - year and more new production capacity in the fourth quarter [7] - **Main Logic**: Oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with a planned 20.5% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity has been increasing, with an expected 11.0% increase in 2025E. The import dependence has also shown a downward trend, and the consumption growth rate has fluctuated [15]
大越期货菜粕早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:06
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2320 - 2380. The market has returned to a state of oscillation while awaiting the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. In the short term, it will maintain an oscillatory pattern due to the off - season of domestic rapeseed meal supply and demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Rapeseed meal RM2605 is in the 2320 - 2380 range. The fundamentals are neutral; the basis is bullish; the inventory is bullish; the price on the disk is bearish; the main position is bullish; and the short - term outlook is oscillatory [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but Sino - Canadian trade issues have reduced short - term exports and domestic supply. - China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final ruling is still uncertain. - Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada where the output is higher than expected. - The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. Global geopolitical conflicts may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the lack of pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal inventory. - Bearish factors: The off - season of domestic rapeseed meal demand and the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping result on Canadian rapeseed imports, with a small probability of reconciliation. - The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From December 12 to 22, the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2520 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3100 - 3138 yuan/ton. The average price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal ranged from 599 - 631 yuan/ton [13]. - From December 12 to 22, the price of rapeseed meal futures' near - month 2601 contract was around 2389 - 2419 yuan/ton, the main 2605 contract was around 2323 - 2359 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was around 2490 - 2520 yuan/ton [15]. - From December 11 to 22, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts remained at 0 [17]. - Rapeseed meal futures have oscillated and declined, with the spot price fluctuating accordingly, and the spot premium remaining at a relatively high level. The spot price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference between soybean and rapeseed meal in the 2605 contract has narrowed slightly [18][20]. - Rapeseed imports have increased slightly in December, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. Oil mills' rapeseed inventory has remained low, and rapeseed meal inventory is also at a low level. Oil mills' rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [23][25][27]. - Aquatic fish prices have declined slightly, while shrimp and shellfish prices have remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data No relevant content provided.
大越期货豆粕早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 02:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **M2605 Soybean Meal**: Expected to oscillate between 2720 and 2780. Influenced by the US - China trade agreement and South American weather, it may show short - term weak oscillations. Factors like demand improvement, spot price premium, inventory changes, and market expectations contribute to this view [9]. - **A2605 Soybeans**: Forecasted to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The price is affected by the US - China trade situation, South American weather, and the cost - performance advantage of domestic soybeans. Import volume and domestic production also impact the market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Soybean Meal (M2605)**: In a neutral position. Market factors include US - China trade, South American weather, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Soybeans (A2605)**: Also in a neutral state. Influenced by similar factors as soybean meal, along with the cost - performance of domestic soybeans [11]. 3.2 Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China tariff negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather remain uncertain. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China decreased in December, while oil mill soybean inventory remained high. - Reduced domestic pig - farming profits led to low expectations for pig replenishment, but the rising demand for soybean meal in December supported price expectations [13]. 3.3 Long and Short Concerns 3.3.1 Soybean Meal - **Long Factors**: Initial agreement in US - China trade negotiation, no pressure on domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory, and variable weather in US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Short Factors**: High volume of imported soybeans arriving in December, and expected high - yield South American soybeans under normal weather conditions [15]. 3.3.2 Soybeans - **Long Factors**: Cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market, and expected increase in domestic soybean demand [16]. - **Short Factors**: High - yield Brazilian soybeans and increased Chinese purchases, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [16]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: Data from 2015 - 2024 shows trends in harvest area, production, consumption, and inventory, with the inventory - to - consumption ratio varying over the years [32]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance**: From 2015 - 2024, data reflects changes in harvest area, import volume, production, consumption, and inventory, along with the inventory - to - consumption ratio [33]. 3.5 Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [9]. - **Soybeans**: The main short positions increased, and funds flowed out [11]. 3.6 Other Market Information - **Soybean Meal Futures and Spot**: Futures showed weak oscillations, while the spot price was relatively stable, with a slight reduction in the spot premium [24]. - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Spread**: The spot spread fluctuated slightly, and the spread in the 2605 contract narrowed slightly [29]. - **Oil Mill Operations**: Oil mill soybean crushing volume remained high, and soybean meal production in October increased year - on - year. Downstream purchases were low, while提货 volume was high [26][27]. - **USDA Supply - Demand Reports**: In the past six months, data on US soybean planting area, yield, production, and inventory showed some fluctuations, along with information on Brazilian and Argentine soybean production [44]. - **US Soybean Exports**: Weekly export inspections decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [45]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival**: The arrival volume increased slightly in December and showed an overall year - on - year increase [47]. - **Oil Mill Inventory and Contracts**: Oil mill soybean inventory remained high, and soybean meal inventory decreased from a high level. Unfulfilled contracts rose to a high level, indicating increased stocking demand [48][50]. - **Brazilian Soybean Import Cost**: Followed the oscillation of US soybeans and declined, with slight fluctuations in the market profit [53]. - **Pig Farming**: Pig inventory increased, sow inventory was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. Pig prices fluctuated slightly, and piglet prices were weak. The proportion of large pigs increased, and the cost of secondary fattening fluctuated slightly. Pig - farming profits also fluctuated slightly [55][57][59][61].
大越期货碳酸锂期货早报-20251223
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-12-23 01:42
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is increasing, with last week's output at 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase and higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 tons, and the predicted output for the next month is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. The import volume in November was 25,500 tons, and the predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced. The inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials decreased last week [8][9]. - The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, but is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 110,360 - 114,600 [9]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile. Negative factors are the continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply - side**: Last week's lithium carbonate output was 22,045 tons, a 0.21% week - on - week increase. In November 2025, the output was 95,350 tons, and the predicted next - month output is 98,210 tons, a 3.00% increase. The import volume in November was 25,500 tons, and the predicted next - month import is 27,000 tons, a 5.88% increase [8][9]. - **Demand - side**: The inventory of sample lithium iron phosphate enterprises was 102,271 tons last week, a 1.33% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample ternary material enterprises was 18,091 tons, a 2.33% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost - side**: The cost of 6% concentrate CIF increased daily, but is lower than the historical average. The demand - dominated situation has weakened. The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 110,360 - 114,600 [9]. - **Positive factors**: Lithium mica manufacturers' production cut plan and the decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile [11]. - **Negative factors**: Continuous high supply from ore and salt lake ends with limited decline [12]. - **Main logic**: Emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Cost**: The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate externally is 107,766 yuan/ton, a 3.68% daily increase, with a production loss of 10,149 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica externally is 103,138 yuan/ton, a 3.11% daily increase, with a production loss of 7,988 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production profit is negative, with low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [10]. - **Basis**: On December 22, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 99,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 15,380 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a bearish signal [10]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 18,090 tons, a 5.58% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 41,485 tons, a 2.93% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. Other inventories were 50,850 tons, a 2.58% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 110,425 tons, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a neutral signal [10]. - **Market trend**: The MA20 of the market is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, showing a bullish signal [10]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, showing a bearish signal [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Futures closing price**: The futures closing prices of different contracts increased, with the increase ranging from 2.52% to 3.07% [15]. - **Basis**: The basis of different contracts decreased, with the decrease ranging from 3.91% to 14.97% [15]. - **Registered warrants**: The number of registered warrants was 16,411, a 5.80% increase from the previous value [15]. - **Upstream prices**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium salts, and related products showed different trends. For example, the price of 6% spodumene increased by 4.55%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.38% [15]. 3.4 Supply - Related - **Lithium ore**: The price, production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium ore fluctuated, and the production and import volume of lithium ore in different months changed [26]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The weekly and monthly production, import, and production capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) showed different trends over time [32]. - **Lithium hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly production, and export volume of lithium hydroxide showed different trends over time [41][44]. 3.5 Demand - Related - **Lithium battery**: The price, production, shipment, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium batteries fluctuated, and the monthly production and shipment volume of power cells changed [58]. - **Ternary precursor**: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. For example, the price of ternary precursors fluctuated, and the monthly supply - demand balance changed [63][66]. - **Ternary material**: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary materials showed different trends over time. For example, the price of ternary materials fluctuated, and the monthly production and supply - demand balance changed [69][70]. - **Lithium iron phosphate/phosphate**: The price, cost, production, and supply - demand balance of lithium iron phosphate and phosphate showed different trends over time. For example, the price of lithium iron phosphate fluctuated, and the monthly production and supply - demand balance changed [73][76]. - **New energy vehicle**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time. For example, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, and the penetration rate also increased [81][82].