1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - During the Christmas holiday, gold prices were boosted by silver prices. Gold futures had a price of 1008.76, and the spot price was 1002.92, with a basis of -5.84, indicating that the spot was at a discount to the futures. The gold futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 93711 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, but the long positions of the main players decreased. With overseas stock markets closed in many places, attention should be paid to China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size in November and Japan's unemployment rate in November. The gold - silver ratio was at a low level, providing support for gold prices [4]. - During the Christmas holiday, Shanghai silver prices rose significantly again, while the London market did not follow up after the holiday. The silver futures price was 17397, and the spot price was 17433, with a basis of +6, indicating that the spot was at a premium to the futures. The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts decreased by 29532 kilograms to 852417 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the K - line was above the 20 - day moving average. The main positions were net long, and the long positions of the main players increased. Domestic silver prices rose independently and significantly during the Christmas holiday, and the Shanghai silver premium continued to expand. With overseas Christmas holidays, abnormal price increases were still possible, and silver prices remained strong under the support of funds, but there was a risk of high premiums in silver funds [5]. - After Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change. The inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to decline. Recently, the Fed's interest rate cuts and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks had a combined impact, and with concerns about liquidity, there was still upward momentum for gold prices, but it was limited [9]. - Silver prices mainly followed gold prices. The tariff concern had a stronger impact on silver prices, and there was a risk of an enlarged increase in silver prices. There were both positive and negative factors affecting silver prices, such as global turmoil and inflation concerns on the positive side, and the Fed's internal divergence and the optimistic expectation of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks on the negative side [13][14]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - The report provides the previous day's closing, highest, lowest, price changes, and price change percentages of various precious metal products, including Shanghai gold 2602, Shanghai silver 2602, COMEX gold 2602, etc. For example, Shanghai gold 2602 closed at 1008.76, with a high of 1014.28, a low of 1003.12, a price change of -3.90, and a price change percentage of -0.39% [16]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Attention should be paid to Japan's unemployment rate, Tokyo CPI, industrial output, and retail sales in November; China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November; and a news conference by the National Development and Reform Commission [15]. 3.3. Today's Focus - At 07:30, Japan's November unemployment rate, job - seeking ratio, and December Tokyo CPI; at 07:50, Japan's November industrial output preliminary value and retail sales; the stock markets in Japan, South Korea, Australia, Germany, France, the UK, Italy, and Canada are closed all day; the first Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area Low - altitude Economy High - quality Development Conference is held at an undetermined time; at 10:30, the National Development and Reform Commission holds a news conference to introduce the work related to the national venture capital guidance fund; on Saturday at 09:30, China's industrial enterprise profits above designated size from January to November are announced [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The unchanged warehouse receipts are also bearish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with a decrease in long positions is also bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The fundamental situation is neutral. The basis shows that the spot is at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The decrease in warehouse receipts is bullish. The upward 20 - day moving average and the K - line above it are bullish. The main net long position with an increase in long positions is bullish [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Shanghai Gold**: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 189,259, a decrease of 3,766 or 1.95% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 55,546, a decrease of 501 or 0.89%; the net positions were 133,713, a decrease of 3,265 or 2.38% [30]. - **Shanghai Silver**: On December 25, 2025, the long positions of the top 20 were 393,810, a decrease of 8,438 or 2.10% compared to the previous day; the short positions were 306,880, a decrease of 4,494 or 1.44%; the net positions were 86,930, a decrease of 3,944 or 4.34% [32]. - **SPDR Gold ETF**: The ETF holdings turned to an increase [34]. - **Silver ETF**: The ETF holdings decreased slightly [36]. - **Shanghai Gold Warehouse Receipts**: There was a slight increase [38]. - **COMEX Gold Warehouse Receipts**: There was a slight increase and remained at a high level [39]. - **Shanghai Silver Warehouse Receipts**: Continued to decrease slightly and were at the lowest level in the past six years [41]. - **COMEX Silver Warehouse Receipts**: Continued to decrease [41].

Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Morning Report [2] - Report Date: December 26, 2025 [2] - Analyst: Zhu Tianyi from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department [3] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE market is expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [4] - The PP market is also expected to be volatile today, with a weakening futures contract, oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand [6] Summary by Content LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized. The demand for agricultural films is gradually weakening, and the packaging film orders have declined after the peak season. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 6320 (+100), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2605 contract is - 70, with a premium - discount ratio of - 1.1%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PE inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), which is bearish [4] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [4] - **Main Position**: The net long position of the LLDPE main contract is decreasing, which is bullish [4] - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [4] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [5] PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: In November, the official PMI was 49.2, up 0.2 points from the previous month, indicating stable manufacturing sentiment. OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November, increasing production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and suspending the increase from January to March 2026. Coal prices have fallen, and coal - based profits have stabilized, while PDH profits have continued to decline due to the strong propane price. The plastic weaving industry has entered the off - season, and the demand for pipes has decreased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6220 (+40), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [6] - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2605 contract is - 46, with a premium - discount ratio of - 0.7%, which is bearish [6] - **Inventory**: The comprehensive PP inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), which is bearish [6] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [6] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the PP main contract is increasing, which is bearish [6] - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is weak, with oversupply in the fundamentals, neutral industrial inventory, and weakening downstream demand. It is expected to be volatile today [6] - **Factors**: Bullish factor is cost support; bearish factors are weak downstream demand year - on - year and many new production projects in the fourth quarter. The main logic is oversupply and domestic macro - policies [7] Market Data - **LLDPE**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6320 (+100), the 05 - contract price is 6390 (-18), the basis is - 70, the import price in US dollars is 755 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6532 (-4), and the import price difference is - 212 (+104). The warehouse receipt is 11,265 (unchanged), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 491,000 tons (-32,000), and the social inventory is 472,000 tons (+3,000) [8] - **PP**: The current spot price of the delivery product is 6220 (+40), the 05 - contract price is 6266 (-12), the basis is - 46, the import price in US dollars is 750 (unchanged), the import conversion price is 6490 (-4), and the import price difference is - 270 (+44). The warehouse receipt is 14,935 (+3,000), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 533,000 tons (+5,000), and the social inventory is 293,000 tons (-12,000) [8] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally shown an upward trend, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 43.195 million tons, with a growth rate of 20.5% [13] - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, net import volume, and apparent consumption have generally increased, with fluctuations in the growth rate. The import dependence has gradually decreased. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 4.906 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term price of coking coal is expected to be weak. Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, and after three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low [2]. - The short - term trend of coke is expected to be weak. The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly due to the strong wait - and - see sentiment of intermediate speculative traders. The current rigid demand for coke is still restricted, and the market supply and demand are in a relatively loose state [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints Coking Coal - Fundamental: Intermediate coal - washing trading enterprises are cautious in purchasing, with small - order transactions and few speculative behaviors. The online auction failure ratio has slightly increased. Some coking coal prices are still adjusting, while some high - quality main coking coal prices are relatively firm; bearish [2]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1140 yuan, and the basis is 16 yuan; the spot price is higher than the futures price; bullish [2]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 801 million tons, port inventory is 295 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 861 million tons. The total sample inventory is 1957 million tons, a decrease of 21 million tons from last week; bullish [2]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [3]. - Main position: The main coking coal position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [3]. - Expectation: After three rounds of coke price cuts, steel mill profits have not recovered well, with expectations of further price cuts. Coking enterprises' profits are also limited, and downstream acceptance of high - priced coal is low. Some coking and steel enterprises with high raw coal inventory are controlling arrivals. It is expected that the short - term coking coal price will be weak [2]. Coke - Fundamental: The impact of environmental protection is weak, and coking plants are actively operating. Except for slight production restrictions in some areas, coking enterprises in other regions are operating normally, and the local production is on the rise. However, intermediate speculative traders are highly wait - and - see, and the demand of traders has not been released. The inventory of some coking enterprises has increased slightly, and the short - term supply of metallurgical coke market is relatively loose; bearish [7]. - Basis: The spot market price is 1610 yuan, and the basis is - 129 yuan; the spot price is lower than the futures price; bearish [7]. - Inventory: Steel mill inventory is 626 million tons, port inventory is 187 million tons, and independent coking enterprise inventory is 45 million tons. The total sample inventory is 858 million tons, a decrease of 1 million tons from last week; bullish [7]. - Disk: The 20 - day line is upward, and the price is above the 20 - day line; bullish [7]. - Main position: The main coke position is net long, and long positions are increasing; bullish [7]. - Expectation: At present, the rigid demand for coke is still restricted, downstream steel mills are at a reasonable or higher level, intermediate trade demand is mostly waiting and seeing, while the coke supply continues to improve and the inventory continues to accumulate. It is expected that the short - term coke market will be weak [7]. 3.2 Factors Affecting Prices Coking Coal - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and difficult supply increase [5]. - Bearish factors: Slowing procurement of raw coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [5]. Coke - Bullish factors: Rising hot metal production and synchronous increase in blast furnace operating rate [9]. - Bearish factors: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partial over - consumption of replenishment demand [9]. 3.3 Price Information - The report provides the port metallurgical coke price index on December 25th (17:30), including the price, price change, and other information of different grades and origins of metallurgical coke in various ports [10]. 3.4 Inventory Information - Port inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 million tons, an increase of 1 million tons from last week [19]. - Independent coking enterprise inventory: Independent coking enterprise coking coal inventory is 819.3 million tons, a decrease of 69.2 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons from last week [23]. - Steel mill inventory: Steel mill coking coal inventory is 803.8 million tons, an increase of 4.3 million tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 million tons, a decrease of 13.3 million tons from last week [28]. 3.5 Other Information - Coke oven capacity utilization rate: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [41]. - Average profit per ton of coke: The average profit per ton of coke of 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [45].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The short - term trend is expected to be mainly volatile and downward. The supply is expected to be abundant as the production of soda ash plants is at a high level and the second - phase project of Yuangxing is expected to be put into operation before the end of the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of soda ash is 1184 yuan/ton, the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe, Hebei is 1130 yuan/ton, and the main base difference is - 54 yuan/ton, with no change compared to the previous value [6]. 3.2 Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Shahe market in Hebei is 1130 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamentals - Supply - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 146.70 yuan/ton, and that of the East China co - production process is - 109 yuan/ton, at a historically low level [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 82.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 72.14 tons, including 39.03 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historically high level [17][19]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the total new capacity of soda ash was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; the planned new capacity in 2025 is 750 tons, with an actual production of 100 tons [21]. 3.4 Fundamentals - Demand - **Sales Rate**: The weekly sales rate of soda ash is 99.31% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.50 tons, with an operating rate of 73.90% [27]. 3.5 Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of soda ash plants nationwide is 143.85 tons, a decrease of 4.06% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is above the five - year average [33]. 3.6 Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, capacity growth rate, production growth rate, apparent supply growth rate, and total demand growth rate [34]. 3.7 Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to reduced maintenance and slow recovery of soda ash supply [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year. The production of the industry is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, leading to weakening demand [4]. 3.8 Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level during the same period, and the pattern of supply - demand mismatch in the industry has not been effectively improved [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-26 大越期货投资咨询部 朱天一 从业资格证号：F3020542 投资咨询证号： Z0021831 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率企稳，综合库存有所回落，去库形态较明显。需求端，农业需 求、工业需求按需为主，复合肥开工率、三聚氰胺开工稳。出口内外价差大，近期出口配额企业 多完成集港，短期出口需求回落，周中印标消息公布提振盘面，国内尿素整体仍供过于求。交割 品现货1710（+0），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2605合约基差-30，升贴水比例-1.8%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存131.8万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线走平，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For PTA, the recent changes in PTA devices are relatively small, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to be acceptable. The futures market has risen significantly following the cost side. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a range. Attention should be paid to the oil price trend and downstream load [5]. - For MEG, the second - phase device of CNOOC Shell has been successfully restarted. The changes of Huayi and Yulin Chemical devices should be noted around the end of the month. There is still room for a slight increase in the overall ethylene glycol operating rate, and the domestic supply will show a certain increase. In the long - term, there is still an expectation of inventory accumulation, and the market sentiment needs time to recover. In the short term, the price center of ethylene glycol will be mainly sorted at a low level, and the impact of cost and device news should be noted [7]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the content 2.每日提示 - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis strengthened. The negotiation was mainly among traders. The December goods were negotiated at a discount of 10 - 16 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range at 4995 - 5110. The January goods were traded at a discount of 60 - 65 to the 05 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 13. The spot is 5060, the basis of the 05 contract is - 92, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The PTA factory inventory is 3.61 days, a decrease of 0.15 days compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net long, and the long position increases [5]. - MEG: On Thursday, the price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated widely, and the market negotiation was acceptable. The spot negotiation of ethylene glycol was around a discount of 0 - 15 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. Some contract traders in the market actively replenished their stocks, and there was little negotiation for next - week's spot. In the morning, affected by the decline in polyester load, the ethylene glycol market declined moderately, and in the afternoon, the market maintained a narrow range. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly. The January shipment was negotiated and traded at around 438 - 445 US dollars/ton, and some traders participated in the offer at high prices, with the overall transaction being relatively stalemate. The spot is 3635, the basis of the 05 contract is - 183, and the futures price is higher than the spot price. The total inventory in East China is 65.78 tons, a decrease of 11.22 tons compared with the previous period. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average. The main position is net short, and the short position increases [8]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the content 4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It shows the PTA production capacity, load, output, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Table**: It presents the ethylene glycol production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, as well as the year - on - year changes in supply and demand, and the port inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio [12]. - **Price and Profit Data**: It includes the price changes of various products such as naphtha, p - xylene, PTA, MEG, polyester fibers on December 25 and 24, 2025, as well as the basis, processing fees, and production profits of different products [13]. 5.影响因素总结 - **Likely Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Unfavorable Influencing Factors**: Not provided in the content - **Main Logic and Risk Points**: The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side. For the market rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [9]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of glass are weak, with production profit repair being sluggish, supply contraction falling short of expectations, downstream deep - processing orders being weak due to the real estate drag, and inventory at a historical high for the same period. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2]. - The main logic is that glass supply has stabilized at a low level, deep - processing factory orders are dismal, and glass factory inventories are rising, so it is expected to oscillate weakly at a low level [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1048 yuan/ton to 1047 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.10%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board remained unchanged at 932 yuan/ton. The main basis decreased from - 116 yuan/ton to - 115 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.86% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 932 yuan/ton, remaining flat compared to the previous day [12]. Fundamentals - Cost Side - The number of national float glass production lines in operation is 219, with an operating rate of 73.90%, and the number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 155,000 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [23][25]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.7082 million tons [28]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, an increase of 0.11% compared to the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio. For example, in 2024E, production was 55.1 million tons, consumption was 53.1 million tons, production growth rate was 3.94%, and consumption growth rate was - 1.15% [45]. Influencing Factors - **Positive factors**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold repairs have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly focusing on digesting raw glass inventories [5].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月25日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比持平。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为8.1万吨，环比增长8.00%.需求有所抬升. 多晶硅库存为29.3万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1384元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为69.79%，环比持平，低于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.23万吨，处于高位，进口利润为166元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为642.17元/吨，再生铝开工率为59.8%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本通氧553生产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-25甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2605： 3.荆门60万吨/年醋酸装置已于5月16日出产品；新疆中和合众60万吨/年醋酸本月下旬 有投产计划。 4.西北CTO工厂甲醇外采。 利空： 1.前期停车装置恢复：内蒙古东华等。 2. 下半月港口预计到船集中； 1、基本面：驱动因素不同预计本周国内甲醇延续区域性走势。内地方面，考虑到冬季雨雪天气对运输造成影响，上游 甲醇工厂仍以低库存操作为主，且据悉产区部分甲醇企业有一定库存压力，出货需求下不排除进一步降价让利运费可能。 销区来看，近期产区甲醇价格回落且局部跌幅明显较大，对鲁北地区或有一定冲击，但同时运费坚挺对到货价格有一 ...

Report Overview - Report Date: December 25, 2025 - Report Title: Crude Oil Morning Report - Analyst: Jin Zebin from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View - Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, while medium - to long - term concerns about oversupply remain. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range, and long - term investors should wait [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily提示 - **Fundamentals**: The US will focus on "blockading" Venezuelan oil in the next two months. CPC pipeline oil transportation in December is expected to drop by one - third. Venezuelan state - owned oil company's inventory increases due to US ship seizures [3]. - **Basis**: On December 24, Oman crude spot price was $62.77/barrel, Qatar Marine crude spot price was $61.95/barrel, with a basis of 16.98 yuan/barrel, and the spot price was higher than the futures price [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude inventory increased by 2.391 million barrels in the week ending December 19. US EIA inventory decreased by 1.274 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.742 million barrels in the week ending December 12. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained at 3.464 million barrels as of December 24 [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the average [3]. - **Main Position**: As of December 9, WTI crude oil main position was long and increased; as of December 16, Brent crude oil main position was long and decreased [3]. - **Expectation**: During the Christmas holiday, the external market was closed. Short - term geopolitical concerns support oil prices, but medium - to long - term oversupply concerns remain. SC2602 is expected to trade in the 438 - 446 range [3]. 3.2 Recent News - The US will focus on economic sanctions against Venezuelan oil in the next two months. Venezuela may face an economic disaster by mid - January next year if it does not make concessions to the US [5]. - Russia will seek key revisions to the latest US - Ukraine peace plan for Ukraine, including more restrictions on Kiev's military capabilities [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Likely to Rise**: Not provided clearly. - **Likely to Fall**: Middle East situation eases [6]. - **Driving Factors**: Short - term waiting for geopolitical positive factors, medium - to long - term facing the risk of oversupply [7]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: Brent crude oil settlement price rose from $61.58 to $61.87, an increase of 0.47%. WTI crude oil rose from $58.01 to $58.38, an increase of 0.64%. SC crude oil rose from 432.6 to 441.7, an increase of 2.10%. Oman crude oil rose from $60.16 to $61.47, an increase of 2.18% [8]. - **Spot Market**: UK Brent Dtd rose from $62.81 to $63.23, an increase of 0.67%. WTI was $0.00, a decrease of 100.00%. Oman crude oil rose from $61.75 to $62.33, an increase of 0.94%. Shengli crude oil rose from $56.59 to $57.92, an increase of 2.35%. Dubai crude oil rose from $61.57 to $62.22, an increase of 1.06% [10]. 3.5 Position Data - **API Inventory**: In the week ending December 19, it increased by 2.391 million barrels [3][11]. - **EIA Inventory**: In the week ending December 12, it decreased by 1.274 million barrels [3][14]. - **WTI Net Long Position**: As of December 9, it was 58,433, an increase of 7,396 [17]. - **Brent Net Long Position**: As of December 16, it was 32,940, a decrease of 74,876 [19].