Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton market is generally bearish. The expected supply increase due to the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton, combined with a weak market performance during the peak season and the resurgence of Trump's tariff - increasing remarks, leads to an expectation of further decline in the main 01 contract. It is recommended to short on rallies [4]. Group 3: Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the report 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions' forecasts show a complex supply - demand situation for cotton. For example, the ICAC9 monthly report indicates 2550 million tons of production and consumption in the 25/26 season; the USDA9 monthly report shows 2562.2 million tons of production and 2587.2 million tons of consumption. China's textile and clothing exports in August decreased by 5% year - on - year, and cotton imports decreased by 51.6% year - on - year, while棉纱 imports increased by 18.18% year - on - year. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b is 14757, with a basis of 1432 (01 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: The expected ending inventory in the 25/26 season in October by the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture is 822 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [4]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [4]. - **Expectation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is half over, the market is sluggish. With new cotton about to be listed in large quantities, supply is expected to increase. Trump's tariff - increasing remarks have resurfaced, and US cotton continues to decline. The rebound of the main 01 contract is weak, with an expectation of further decline [4]. 3. Today's Focus - Not provided in the report 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Production and Sales Forecast (September)**: Global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 2587.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports. For example, China's production is expected to be 707.6 million tons, and consumption is expected to be 838.2 million tons [9]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 25/26 season, global production is 2.590 million tons, consumption is 2.560 million tons, ending inventory is 1.710 million tons, and global trade volume is 970 million tons. The price forecast for the Cotlook A index is 57 - 94 cents per pound [11]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In the 25/26 season, China's production is 636 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 822 million tons. The domestic average price of cotton 3128B is expected to be between 14000 - 16000 yuan per ton [13]. 5. Position Data - The main position of cotton is bearish, with an increase in net short positions [4].

目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖早报——2025年10月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 白糖： 1、基本面：Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高出120万吨。 StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩277万吨。ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应缺口为23.1 万吨，比之前预计缺口大幅减少。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制糖全国累计产糖1116.21万吨； 全国累计销糖1000万吨；销糖率89.6%。2025年8月中国进口食糖83万吨，同比增加6万吨；进口糖 浆及预混粉等三项合计11.55万吨，同比减少15.57万吨。偏空。 2、基差：柳州 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The glass futures continued to decline last week, with the main contract FG2601 closing 0.25% lower than before the National Day holiday at 1,207 yuan/ton. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass large sheets was 1,148 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from before the holiday. The glass fundamentals are neutral to weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass Futures and Spot Market Weekly Review - The main contract FG2601 of glass futures closed at 1,207 yuan/ton last week, down 0.25% from before the National Day holiday. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass large sheets was 1,148 yuan/ton, down 0.69% from before the holiday. The main contract basis increased by 9.26% [2][3][7]. Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti-involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [4]. - **Negative Factors**: The terminal demand in the real estate sector remains weak, with the number of orders from glass deep-processing enterprises at a historical low. The capital repayment in the deep-processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory. The "anti-involution" market sentiment has faded [5]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: The number of operating float glass production lines in the country was 225 last week, with an operating rate of 76.01% and a daily melting volume of 161,300 tons. The supply has stabilized at a low level [2]. - **Demand**: Some mid - and downstream players have carried out phased speculative restocking, driving a slight reduction in factory inventories. However, the recovery of the terminal real estate market is weak, and the orders of downstream deep - processing factories are weak. The traditional peak demand season is lackluster [2]. - **Inventory**: As of October 9, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 62.824 million weight boxes, up 5.84% from the previous week, and the inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period [2]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E shows changes in production, consumption, and net import ratios over the years. For example, in 2024E, the production was 5,510 million tons, the consumption was 5,310 million tons, and the net import ratio was - 0.90% [42].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the holiday, the silicon - manganese market showed a weak and volatile trend. The black - series commodity sector had a narrow - range oscillation, and the alloy market lacked directional drivers. The futures price was waiting for a single - side driving factor. Currently, the fundamental driving force of silicon - manganese itself was limited, and it would continue to resonate with the black - series sector in the short term. The future trend of black - series commodities and macro - sentiment needed continuous attention. It was predicted that the market would continue to oscillate in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Manganese Silicon Supply Capacity - A chart shows the monthly production capacity of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2016 - 06 to 2025 - 06 [6][7] Annual Output - A chart presents the annual production of silicon - manganese in Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other regions, and China from 2008 to 2025 [8][9] Weekly, Monthly Output and开工率 - A chart displays the weekly and monthly production of Chinese silicon - manganese and the weekly开工率 of Chinese silicon - manganese enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [10][11] Regional Output - Charts show the monthly production of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average production in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [12][13] Manganese Silicon Demand Steel Tender Purchase Price - A chart shows the monthly purchase prices of silicon - manganese 6517 by Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, Heilongjiang Jianlong, Yangchun Iron & Steel, Jilin Jianlong, and Nanjing Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 06 [15][16] Daily Average Hot Metal and Profit - A chart shows the weekly daily average hot metal production and profit rate of 247 Chinese steel enterprises from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [17][18] Manganese Silicon Import and Export - A chart shows the monthly import and export quantities of Chinese ferromanganese - silicon from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 07 [19][20] Manganese Silicon Inventory - A chart shows the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicon - manganese enterprises in China, and the monthly average available inventory days in China, the northern region, and the eastern region from 2019 - 09 - 30 to 2025 - 03 - 31 [21][22] Manganese Silicon Cost - Manganese Ore Import Volume - A chart shows the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, from Gabon to China, from southern Africa to China, and from Australia to China from 2020 - 01 to 2025 - 04 [23][24] Port Inventory and Available Days - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, Qinzhou Port, and Tianjin Port, and the weekly average available inventory days in China from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [25][26] High - Grade Ore Port Inventory - A chart shows the weekly port inventory of Australian, Gabonese, and Brazilian manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [27][28] Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price - A chart shows the daily price of South African semi - carbonate manganese lump (Mn36.5%), Australian manganese ore (Mn45%), and Gabonese manganese lump (Mn44.5%) in Tianjin Port from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 07 - 01 [29] Regional Cost - A chart shows the daily cost of silicon - manganese in Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30][31] Manganese Silicon Profit - Regional - A chart shows the daily profit of silicon - manganese in the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi from 2020 - 01 - 01 to 2025 - 04 - 01 [32][33]

目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铝周报（10.9~10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 上周回顾 沪铝周报： 沪铝上周震荡运行，上周主力合约上涨1.25%，周五收盘报20980元/吨。在碳中和下长期控制产能，国 内房地产压制需求不振，取消对铝材出口退税，对于国内铝价构成利空，美国加增钢铝关税，消费有 所影响。国内基本面上，需求进入旺季，等待消费复苏。上周LME库存508825吨，较前周出现小幅增加， SHFE周库存增1180吨至124777吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、供需平衡表 2、铝 3、铝土矿 4、氧化铝 5、铝棒 供需平衡 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 | | | | 中国年度供需平衡表 铝(万吨) | | | | -- ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（10.9~10.10） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜大幅上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨3.37%，收报于85910元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价,美 国关税再起波澜，全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，刺激铜价大涨。国内 方面，消费将进入旺季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还是刚需交 易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存139400吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周增14656吨至 109690吨。 期货主力 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 数据来源：博易大师 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，2025 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱周报 2025.10.9-10.10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每周观点 上周纯碱期货延续下跌走势，主力合约SA2601收盘较国庆节前下跌1.20%报1240元/吨。 现货方面，河北沙河重碱低端价1150元/吨，较节前下跌1.71%。 供给方面，近期纯碱检修企业少，预计下周产量77万吨，开工率89%，供应依旧处于较 高水平，远兴能源二期预计在年底前投产，整体供给充裕。需求端，近期下游浮法玻璃供应 扰动因素较多，叠加光伏玻璃"反内卷"落实等仍将压制纯碱刚需水平。节前库存已连续数 周去库，但目前库存依然处于历史同期高位水平，库存压力较大；截止10月9日，全国纯碱 厂内库存165.98万吨，较前一周增加0.50%，库存仍处于历史同期高位。综合来看，中美关 税摩擦或再度升温， ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-10-13 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1、年内检修高峰期，产量预计将有所下滑。 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；碱厂检修量不及预期，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给处于 高位；下游浮法玻璃供给扰动较多，光伏日熔量延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1150元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1240元/吨，基差为-90元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存165.98万吨，较前一周增加0.50%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 1、基本面：外媒9月17日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年7月，全球锌板产量为115.15万吨,消费量为116.29万吨,供应短 缺1.13万吨.1-7月,全球锌板产量为794.52万吨,消费量为815.85万吨,供应 短缺21.33万吨.7月份,全球锌矿产量为106.56万吨.1-7月,全球锌矿产量为 734.37万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22350，基差+80；中性。 沪锌期货早报-2025年10月13日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 3、库存：10月10日LME锌库存较上日减少300吨至37950吨，10月10日上期 所锌库存仓单较上日增加1777吨至60644吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡下跌走势，收20日均线之上 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 玻璃早报 2025-10-13 每日观点 玻璃： 1、基本面：中美贸易摩擦或升温；近期沙河地区"煤改气"等反内卷、环保政策利好情绪有所升 温，供应端扰动因素较多；下游深加工订单整体偏弱，不及往年同期，地产终端需求疲弱；偏空 2、基差：浮法玻璃河北沙河大板现货1148元/吨，FG2601收盘价为1207元/吨，基差为-59元，期 货升水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国浮法玻璃企业库存6282.40万重量箱，较前一周增加5.84%，库存在5年均值上方运 行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向上；中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：宏观利空叠加玻璃基本面偏弱，短期预计震荡偏弱运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 2、沙河地区部 ...