1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut recently, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoints**: Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. Some production capacities were cut, reducing supply pressure. In the industrial chain, the nickel ore tender in Indonesia was finalized, with nickel ore prices slightly declining and ocean freight remaining flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating an expected supply surplus. Nickel iron prices remained stable with a slight decline, and the cost line stopped falling and stabilized. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly. Refined nickel inventories remained at a high level, and the surplus pattern remained unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the overall boost to nickel demand was limited [8]. - **Operation Strategies**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industry Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices decreased. Red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $56 to $54, a decrease of 3.57%; red soil nickel ore (CIF) NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% dropped from $50 to $48, a decrease of 4.00%. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate dropped from $26,750 to $26,450, a decrease of 1.12%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged at $29,500. Low - nickel iron (Shandong) remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron (Shandong) dropped from $895/ton to $890/ton, a decrease of 0.56%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel increased from $122,150 to $122,570, an increase of 0.34%; Shanghai Russian nickel increased from $117,900 to $118,320, an increase of 0.36%; Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased from $121,600 to $122,700, an increase of 0.90%. The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged at $13,275 [13][14]. 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices decreased by $2/wet ton this week, and ocean freight remained the same as last week. As of December 4, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.6971 million wet tons, a decrease of 176,200 wet tons or 1.18% from the previous period. In October 2025, the nickel ore import volume was 4.6828 million tons, a decrease of 1.4316 million tons or 23.41% from the previous month, but an increase of 462,800 tons or 10.97% year - on - year. The nickel ore tender was finalized this week, and the price of Indonesian nickel ore decreased slightly, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand [17][18]. 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices fluctuated with a slight upward trend, and spot trading was average. After some production cuts, the surplus narrowed, but the supply pressure remained strong. Globally, the nickel market is expected to remain in a supply - surplus pattern dominated by low - cost Indonesian production capacities. Traditional demand such as stainless steel has weak growth, but the high - nickel trend in the new energy field will provide key structural support. In November 2025, China's refined nickel production was 28,392 tons, a decrease of 14.85% from the previous month and 15.27% year - on - year. LME inventories decreased by 1,644 tons to 253,116 tons, while SHFE inventories increased by 1,726 tons to 42,508 tons [23][26][38]. 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained stable. Low - nickel iron prices remained unchanged at $3,300/ton, and high - nickel iron prices dropped. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron actual production in metal terms was 22,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.43% but a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. In October 2025, China's nickel iron import volume was 905,000 tons, a decrease of 180,000 tons or 16.6% from the previous month, but an increase of 214,000 tons or 31.0% year - on - year. The nickel iron inventory in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 tons of nickel [42][46][49]. 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons. The latest stainless steel import volume was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons. As of December 5, the inventory in Wuxi was 576,400 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 346,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.0803 million tons, a decrease of 5,800 tons from the previous period [58][62][68]. 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries were 170.6 GWh and 166 GWh respectively, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and 13.3% respectively, and a year - on - year increase of 50.5% and 50.8% respectively [73][76]. 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated slightly above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average continued to move downward. In terms of positions, the increase was limited, indicating that short - selling forces did not suppress the price again. From the indicators, MACD maintained an upward trend, while KDJ entered the overbought zone and needed to adjust. Overall, the price will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [79]. 3.4 Industry Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: nickel ore is neutral; nickel iron is neutral to bearish; refined nickel is neutral to bearish; stainless steel is neutral; new energy is neutral to bearish. The trading strategy is that the main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - and long - term, sell on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [82][84][85].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 白糖周报（12.1-12.5） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周白糖继续加速下跌，由于进口糖大量增加，价格较低，国内新糖现货销售疲软。期货目前基 本跌至进口糖成本价附近，下跌空间不大。现货目前价格较高，还有下跌空间。 ISO:预计25/26年度全球食糖供应过剩163万吨。DATAGRO:25/26年度全球食糖过剩预计从之前的 280万吨下调至100万吨。Czarnikow:上调25/26年度全球食糖过剩预期至740万吨，比8月份预估高 出120万吨。StoneX:预计25/26年度全球糖市供应过剩370万吨。2025年8月底，24/25年度本期制 糖全国累计产糖111 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Report's Core View - Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market for the 2025/26 season, with different estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. The current season's production, sales, and import data in China also show a bearish trend. However, factors such as increased syrup tariffs and the use of sucrose in US cola recipes are positive. The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and the current position has increased short - chasing risks. Wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [4][7][9]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. In China, by the end of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons; the total import of syrup and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons. This is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5500 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 267 yuan/ton, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August 2024/25, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [6]. - **Expected**: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. The cost of imported sugar with full - tariff is around 5200 yuan/ton. The futures price is accelerating towards the bottom, and this round of decline is nearing the end. The risk of short - chasing at the current position increases, and wait patiently for a reversal signal before bottom - fishing [5][9]. 3. Matters to Watch Today No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance, with surpluses ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In China, the sugar production, sales, and import data for the 2024/25 and 2025/26 seasons are also presented, showing a complex supply - demand situation [4][9]. - **Price and Cost**: The import cost of raw sugar processed with 50% tariff and the domestic and international sugar prices are provided, showing the impact of price changes on the sugar market [9][42]. - **Sugarcane and Beet Data**: Information on sugarcane and beet planting, harvesting areas, yields, and sugar production in China from 2024/25 to 2025/26 is presented [37]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.07%，环比减少0.53个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为35.87%，环比减少0.22个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为37.4%，环比减少1.4个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1 每日观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 工业硅期货早报 2025年12月8日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点——工业硅 供给端来看，上周工业硅供应量为8.8万吨，环比有所减少3.29%。 需求端来看，上周工业硅需求为7.2万吨，环比减少12.19%.需求持续低迷. 多晶硅库存为29.1万吨，处于高位，硅片亏损，电池片亏损，组件盈利； 有机硅库存为43900吨，处于低位，有机硅生产利润为1215元/吨，处于盈 利状态，其综合开工率为74.84%，环比持平，高于历史同期平均水平；铝 合金锭库存为7.38万吨，处于高位，进口亏损为206元/吨，A356铝送至无 锡运费和利润为673.76元/吨，再生铝开工率为61.5%，环比持平，处于高 位。 成本端来看，新疆地区样本 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the 02 contract showed a downward trend. The opening price on Monday was 2,988 yuan/ton, and the closing price on Friday was 2,948 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.33%. It is expected that next week, the demand recovery will be limited, while the supply will increase, and the cost support will strengthen. The futures market may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [4][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Review and Outlook - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the domestic sample asphalt production capacity utilization rate was 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 28.06 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%. The sample enterprise production was 50.2 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment was 82.6 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. It is expected that the supply pressure will increase next week [4]. - **Demand**: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The modified asphalt开工率 was 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average. The road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average. The waterproofing membrane开工率 was 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [4]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly Shandong local refinery delayed coking profit was 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased. With the strengthening of crude oil, it is expected that the short - term support will strengthen [6]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory was 74.5 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%. The in - plant inventory was 58.8 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%. The port diluted asphalt inventory was 67 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory continued to decline, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to accumulate [6]. 3.2 Technical Analysis - This week, the main 02 contract showed a downward trend. It is expected that next week, it may experience a bullish and volatile adjustment [105].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 原油周报 (12.1-12.5) 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 回顾 2 相关资讯 3 展望 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 回顾与要闻 上周，原油继续震荡运行，纽约商品交易所主力轻质原油期货价格收于每桶60.14美元，周涨2.84%；伦敦布伦特原油主力期货价格收于每桶 63.86美元，周涨2.47%；中国原油期货SC主力合约收至457.1元/桶，周涨0.71%。供应方面，机构调查显示，欧佩克上月原油产量保持稳定， 该组织在全球石油市场疲软之际维持谨慎战略，欧佩克在11月的平均日产量略高于2900万桶，与上月基本持平。地缘局势方面，俄罗斯原 油因不可抗力供应减少的预期利好油价，位于新罗西斯克的里海管道集团公司系泊设施29日遭无人艇袭击，乌克兰消息人 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to remain range - bound in the short term, influenced by factors such as the US - China trade agreement, South American soybean planting weather, and domestic demand [10]. - The soybean market will also experience short - term range - bound fluctuations, affected by the execution of the US - China trade agreement, imported soybean arrivals, and domestic soybean production [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Prompt No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in the follow - up negotiation and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased from its high in November. The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remained high in November. After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, the arrival of imported soybeans at the end of the year increased, but domestic soybean meal demand is in the off - season [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, suppressing the price of soybean meal in November. However, the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is positive for US soybeans, and the cost of imported soybeans will rise at the end of the year [13]. - The high inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is affected by the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation. In the short term, soybean meal is driven by US soybeans to oscillate strongly, and future trends await further guidance on US soybean production, South American soybean planting weather, and the follow - up of the US - China trade negotiation [13]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: The initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation is a short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; with the start of soybean planting in Brazil, South American soybeans are expected to have a good harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: The rising cost of imported soybeans supports the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports domestic soybean price expectations [16]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: After the initial agreement in the US - China trade negotiation, China will increase its purchase of US soybeans; the increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price expectations of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the total consumption also increased steadily. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [22]. USDA's Monthly Supply - Demand Reports in the Past Six Months - From April to November 2025, the planting area, yield per unit, and output of US soybeans showed certain fluctuations. The ending inventory, new - bean exports, and crushing volume also changed accordingly. The production of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans also had some changes [23]. US Soybean Planting, Growth, and Harvest Progress in 2024 - The sowing, emergence, flowering, pod - setting, leaf - falling, and harvesting progress of US soybeans in 2024 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average, and the excellent - good rate also changed over time [24][25][26]. Brazilian and Argentine Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress - The planting and harvesting progress of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans from 2024/25 to 2025/26 showed different trends compared with the same period last year and the five - year average [27][28][29][31][32]. Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans generally showed an upward trend, and the total supply and total consumption also increased. The ending inventory and inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated [38]. Domestic Imported Soybean Arrivals - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in November decreased from its high, with an overall year - on - year increase [39]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided. 6. Trading Strategies Soybean Meal - **Futures**: US soybeans are oscillating around the 1100 - point mark in the short term, and soybean meal will remain range - bound in the short term. The M2605 contract will oscillate between 2700 and 2900 in the short term, and short - term trading within the range is recommended [17]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [19]. Soybeans - **Futures**: The A2601 contract of soybeans will oscillate between 4000 and 4200. Short - term trading within the range is recommended [20]. - **Options**: Sell slightly out - of - the - money put options [20]. 7. Technical Analysis Soybeans - The soybean futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the trend of US soybeans and the relative stability of domestic soybean spot prices. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of oscillating consolidation, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [68]. Soybean Meal - The soybean meal futures market is oscillating downward, affected by the decline of US soybeans, uncertainties in the execution of the US - China trade agreement, and weak domestic demand in the short term. Technical indicators such as KDJ and MACD are in the stage of technical adjustment, and the market is expected to return to range - bound fluctuations, awaiting new guidance [71]. 8. Next Week's Concerns - **Most Important**: The planting weather in Brazilian soybean - producing areas, the follow - up execution of the US - China trade agreement, and the arrival and operation of imported soybeans in China [74]. - **Second - most Important**: The domestic demand for soybean meal, the inventory of domestic oil mills, and downstream procurement [75]. - **Less Important**: Macroeconomic factors, the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the Israel - Palestine conflict [75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of pigs and pork is expected to increase. The domestic market has entered the off - season of supply and demand after the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day. However, the recent increase in swine fever has led to a short - term increase in slaughter, suppressing pig prices. On the demand side, the overall consumer willingness of residents has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. But future demand for cured meat will support the price floor. The market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with pig prices expected to decline in the short term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. The expected price range for LH2603 is between 10,800 and 11,200 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Hints - Not provided in the document 3.2 Recent News - The domestic pig consumption market is affected by the off - season. The spread of swine fever has increased pig slaughter, leading to an increase in supply. Spot prices are weak in the short term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. After the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, pork demand has weakened in the short term. Spot prices are oscillating weakly due to increased supply. The room for further price decline is limited, and prices may bottom out and rebound. The loss of domestic pig farming profits has recently expanded, reducing the enthusiasm for slaughtering large pigs in the short term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term price expectations of pig futures and spot markets. Pig spot prices are oscillating downward, and futures are weak in the short term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic pig supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic pig spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the year - on - year increase in domestic pig inventory [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on pig slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - As of September 30, the pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - As of March 31, the pig inventory was 408.5 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 5.9% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.2%. As of the end of May 2024, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.96 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.2% [26]. 3.5 Position Data - The net position of the main force is short, and the short position is decreasing [8]. 3.6 Pig Futures and Spot Prices - The report provides data on pig futures prices (near - month 2601 and main 2603), pig futures warehouse receipts, and spot prices of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions from November 28 to December 5, 2025 [12]. 3.7 Pig Futures Market - Basis and Spread Trends - The report shows the trends of pig futures - spot basis and the spreads between different contracts (1 - 3, 1 - 5, 1 - 9) [13]. 3.8 Pig Spot Market - Average Prices of Different Specifications of Pigs - It presents the trends of the average prices of commodity pigs,白条, and the average pork prices in 36 cities, as well as the price trends of ternary hybrid pigs in different regions and the spread trends between standard and fat pigs [15][17][19]. 3.9 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side - **Indicator Pig Prices**: It shows the trends of the average prices of binary sows, 7 - kg piglets, and culled sows [21]. - **Piglet Indicators**: It presents the feed - to - meat ratio and survival rate of piglets [23]. - **Rural Ministry of Agriculture Inventory**: It shows the monthly pig inventory and its month - on - month trend, as well as the monthly inventory of breeding sows [25]. - **Large - scale Farm Inventory**: It shows the inventory trends of commodity pigs of different weight ranges in large - scale farms and the weekly proportion trends of pigs below 90 kg and above 150 kg [27][29]. - **Pork Imports**: It shows the monthly pork import trends [31]. - **Fattening Costs**: It shows the fattening cost trends (taking 100 - 120 kg as an example) [34]. - **Feed Profit Expectations**: It shows the weekly profit expectations of pig feed [37]. - **Slaughter**: It shows the monthly pig slaughter volume trends and the weekly average slaughter weight trends [39]. - **Slaughter Profits**: It shows the weekly pig slaughter profit trends [41]. - **Profits**: It shows the weekly profit trends of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets [43]. - **Substitutes**: It shows the price spread trends between pigs and beef, mutton, and chicken [45]. 3.10 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Slaughter Side - **Prices**: It shows the trends of the average price of白条, the price spread between live pigs and白条, the slaughter settlement price, and the average price in 36 cities [48][50]. - **Slaughter Profits**: It shows the weekly slaughter processing profit trends [52]. - **Demand Slaughter**: It shows the daily pig slaughter volume and the opening rate, as well as the weekly fresh - sales rate and frozen - product inventory rate trends of slaughtering enterprises [54][56]. 3.11 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side - **Consumption Trends**: The annual pork consumption volume has increased month - on - month, indicating a recovery in pork consumption preference due to price advantages [58][60]. 3.12 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Pig - to - Grain Ratio - It shows the trends of the pig - to - grain ratio [61]. 3.13 Pig Fundamental Analysis - Reserve Purchase and Release - **Rising and Falling Trends**: It shows the historical rising and falling trends of pig prices [65]. - **Reserve Purchase Situation**: It shows the pig reserve purchase situation from 2019 to 2024 [67]. - **Reserve Release Situation**: It shows the pig reserve release situation from 2019 to 2024 [69].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of soybean meal futures will fluctuate in the range of 2800 - 2860, and the price of soybean futures will fluctuate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The short - term trend of both is affected by factors such as Chinese soybean procurement, South American planting weather, and Sino - US trade agreements [9][11]. - The soybean meal market is affected by both positive and negative factors, and it is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13][15]. - The soybean market is also influenced by multiple factors, with the cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand providing support, while the expected bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic production suppressing the upward space [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to fluctuate between 2800 - 2860. The domestic soybean meal shows a narrow - range shock. The demand improves in the short term, and the spot price discount restricts the upward space of the futures price. It is expected to maintain a shock pattern in the short term. The basis is at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing in [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to fluctuate between 4040 - 4140. The domestic soybean shows a shock - down trend. The cost of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic demand support the price, while the increase in domestic production restricts the upward space. The basis is slightly at a premium, the inventory is increasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the short positions of the main force are decreasing, and the funds are flowing out [11]. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans, but there are still uncertainties in China's procurement volume and US soybean weather. The domestic import of soybeans decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also decreased from the high level. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased, and the demand for soybean meal weakened in November. Overall, soybean meal is expected to maintain a range - bound shock in the short term, waiting for further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of Sino - US trade negotiations [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement on Sino - US trade negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans; the inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean production areas [14]. Bearish for Soybean Meal - The total volume of imported soybeans in November remained at a relatively high level; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Bullish for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market; the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports the price [16]. Bearish for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the new - season domestic soybeans are expected to increase in production [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - The global soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and total supply have generally increased in recent years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has also shown an upward trend [33]. - The domestic soybean supply - demand balance shows that the harvest area, output, and import volume have changed over the years, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio has fluctuated [34]. - The import volume of soybeans decreased from the high level in November but increased year - on - year overall. The soybean inventory of oil mills remained at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills decreased to a low level, and the procurement demand decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills decreased from the high level, and the soybean meal output in September increased year - on - year [49][50][52]. 5. Position Data - For soybean meal, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed in. For soybeans, the short positions of the main force decreased, and the funds flowed out [9][11]. Other Information - The price of soybean meal futures fluctuated downwards, while the spot price was relatively stable, and the spot discount narrowed slightly. The price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in the spot market fluctuated slightly, and the price difference in the 2605 contract widened slightly [24][30]. - The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans fluctuated upwards following the US soybeans, and the profit on the futures market fluctuated slightly [56]. - The inventory of live pigs continued to rise, the inventory of sows was flat year - on - year and decreased slightly month - on - month. The price of live pigs fluctuated slightly recently, and the price of piglets remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in the domestic market increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of live pigs increased slightly. The profit of domestic pig farming decreased slightly [58][60][64].