Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. Core View of the Report - In a context where both bullish and bearish factors coexist, the domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. The price of methanol is predicted to oscillate, with MA2601 expected to trade between 2330 - 2380 [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Tips - The domestic methanol market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate this week. MA2601 is predicted to trade in the range of 2330 - 2380 [5]. 2. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors - Some plants have stopped production, such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya [6]. - Methanol production in Iran has decreased, and port inventories are at a low level [6]. - A 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Jingmen started producing on May 16, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid plant in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into operation later this month [6]. - CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. Bearish Factors - Some previously shut - down plants have resumed production, such as Inner Mongolia Donghua [7]. - There is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month [7]. - Formaldehyde has entered its traditional off - season, and MTBE operating rates have significantly declined [7]. - Coal - based methanol production has a certain profit margin, and current active sales are taking place [7]. - Some plants in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to continuous poor sales [7]. 3. Fundamental Data Spot Market - The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 2,285 yuan/ton, with a 01 - contract basis of - 76, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [5]. - The average price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region is 676 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous period. The CFR price at the main port in China is 262 US dollars/ton, also unchanged [8]. Futures Market - The futures closing price is 2,361 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan from the previous period. The number of registered warehouse receipts is 9,892, a decrease of 315 from the previous period [8]. Spread Structure - The basis is - 108 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous period. The import spread is - 53 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan from the previous period [8]. Operating Rates - The weighted average national operating rate is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81 percentage points from the previous period. The operating rate in Shandong is 68.71%, a decrease of 2.39 percentage points from the previous period [8]. Inventory - As of September 18, 2025, the total social inventory of methanol at ports in East and South China was 1.3298 million tons, an increase of 62,500 tons from the previous period. The total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) increased by 58,000 tons to 949,500 tons [5]. 4. Maintenance Status Domestic Methanol Plants - Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, and others. The maintenance periods vary, with some being short - term and others long - term [56]. Overseas Methanol Plants - Some overseas methanol plants in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and other countries are in different operating states, such as normal operation, restarting, or under maintenance [57]. Olefin Plants - Some olefin plants are under maintenance or have different operating conditions. For example, Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy's methanol and olefin units stopped for maintenance on March 15, expected to last 45 days [58].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 2025-09-22 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2480至2540区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕探底回升，中加贸易关系仍有变数和技术性逢低买盘支撑，市场回归震荡等 待加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持 低位支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受消 息面影响维持震荡。中性 2.基差：现货2600，基差78，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.75万吨，上周1.8万吨，周环比减少2.78%，去年同期2.2万吨，同比减 少20.45%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a state of supply - demand imbalance, with over - supply leading to a downward trend that is difficult to reverse. The main logic is capacity mismatch, resulting in strong supply and weak demand. There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include manufacturers' production cut plans, a decrease in lithium carbonate imports from Chile, and a decline in lithium spodumene imports. Negative factors include continuous high supply at the ore/salt lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of power battery manufacturers to take delivery [8][9][10][11] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Last week, the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 96,217 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.81%, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,545 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09%. The cost of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,527 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.13%, with a production loss of 3,096 yuan/ton. The cost of externally purchased lithium mica was 78,845 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 1.94%, with a production loss of 8,402 yuan/ton. The quarterly cash production cost at the salt lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [8] - **Basis**: On September 19, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 460 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount [8] - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 34,456 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.85%, lower than the historical average. The downstream inventory was 59,495 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.09%, higher than the historical average. The total inventory was 137,531 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.70%, higher than the historical average [8] - **Market Chart**: The MA20 of the market chart was downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Main Position**: The net short position of the main players decreased, showing a bearish trend [8] - **Expectation**: In August 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 85,240 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's production will be 86,730 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.75%. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and it is predicted that next month's import will be 19,500 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.71%. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, inventory may be reduced, and the price of lithium carbonate 2511 will fluctuate in the range of 72,740 - 75,180 [8] 3.2 Market Overview - **Lithium Ore**: The price of 6% lithium spodumene was 859 US dollars/ton, a daily increase of 0.12%. The price of lithium mica concentrate (2 - 2.5%) was 1,880 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3.58% [14] - **Lithium Salt**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07%. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.07% [14] - **Positive Electrode Materials and Lithium Batteries**: The prices of most positive electrode materials and lithium batteries showed small fluctuations, with some products remaining unchanged [14] 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore has shown certain fluctuations, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines has different trends in different periods [23] - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium concentrate has increased, and the export volume has also changed to a certain extent. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in different months [26] 3.4 Supply - Lithium Carbonate - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production and capacity of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, and recycling) have different changes [29] - **Import and Export**: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries has changed, and the supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also shows different results in different months [35] 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting and causticizing) have changed, and the export volume has also shown different trends in different years [38] - **Supply - Demand Balance**: The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide shows different situations in different months [40] 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Lithium Spodumene and Lithium Mica**: The production cost and profit of externally purchased lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate have changed, and the processing cost is composed of multiple parts [43] - **Import and Other Profits**: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of recycling and producing lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium hydroxide processing and exporting have all changed [43][45][48] 3.7 Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate in smelters, downstream, and other aspects has different trends [50] - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide in downstream and smelters has changed [50] 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium batteries has shown small fluctuations, and the monthly production, shipment volume, and export volume of lithium batteries have different trends [54] - **Inventory and Bidding**: The inventory of lithium battery cells and the EPC bidding situation of energy storage systems have changed [56] 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors has changed, and the cost and profit of different types of ternary precursors have different trends [59] - **Capacity Utilization and Supply - Demand Balance**: The capacity utilization rate of ternary precursors has changed, and the supply - demand balance also shows different situations in different months [59][62] 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials has changed, and the cost - profit trend of different types of ternary materials has different characteristics [64] - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of ternary materials have changed [64][66] 3.11 Demand - Phosphorus Iron/Phosphorus Iron Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of phosphorus iron/phosphorus iron lithium has changed, and the cost - profit situation of phosphorus iron lithium has different trends [68] - **Production and Inventory**: The production and weekly inventory of phosphorus iron and phosphorus iron lithium have changed [68][71] 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volume of new energy vehicles have different trends, and the sales penetration rate has also changed [76] - **Retail - Wholesale Ratio and Inventory Index**: The retail - wholesale ratio of hybrid and pure - electric new energy vehicles and the inventory warning and inventory indexes of dealers have changed [80]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月22日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为76.96%，环比减少0.04个百分点；电石法企业产量32.8605万吨，环比减少3.14%,乙烯法企业产 量13.231万吨，环比减少5.16%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.26%，环比增加.76个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为39.43%，环比增加.210个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为39.13%，环比增加.52个百 分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being relaxed. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business conditions compared to the previous month. The basis is also neutral, with the spot price at 79,970 and a basis of 120, indicating a premium over the futures price. The inventory situation is neutral, with copper inventories decreasing by 1,225 tons to 147,650 tons on September 19th, and the SHFE copper inventory increasing by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week. The market trend is bullish, with the closing price above the 20 - day moving average, which is upward - sloping. The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing. Overall, with inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances still present, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September, the current contradiction between long and short is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Smelting enterprises reduce production, scrap copper policy is relaxed, and the manufacturing PMI in August rose to 49.4%, with business conditions improving compared to the previous month; neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price is 79,970, basis is 120, with a premium over the futures price; neutral [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 19th, copper inventories decreased by 1,225 tons to 147,650 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week; neutral [2]. - **Market Trend**: The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward - sloping; bullish [2]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net long, but the long positions are decreasing; bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances still present, waiting for consumption guidance in the peak season in September, the current contradiction between long and short is not prominent, and copper prices are expected to fluctuate and strengthen [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **Leverage Factors**: Global policy easing and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: The SHFE copper inventory increased by 11,760 tons to 105,814 tons compared to the previous week [2]. - **Bonded Area Inventory**: The bonded area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is in a tight balance. The China annual supply - demand balance table shows specific data for different years from 2018 - 2024, including production, import volume, export volume, apparent consumption, actual consumption, and supply - demand balance [19][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the silicomanganese alloy market has changed significantly, while the basic supply and demand have shown no obvious fluctuations. Recently, there have been many macro - level news such as the Fed's interest rate cut and anti - involution meetings, and the sentiment in the silicomanganese market is relatively positive. The price rose slightly last week. The price of manganese ore in the future still needs to pay attention to macro news and the trend of the silicomanganese futures market; it is considered neutral. - The spot price is 5,820 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract is - 144 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; it is considered bearish. - The inventory of 63 independent silicomanganese enterprises in the country is 221,800 tons, and the average available days of inventory for 50 steel mills in the country is 15.49 days; it is considered neutral. - The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract is above the MA20; it is considered neutral. - The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are increasing; it is considered bearish. - It is expected that the price of silicomanganese will fluctuate this week, and the SM2601 will fluctuate between 5,850 - 6,020 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Manganese Silicon Supply - **Capacity**: There is a chart showing the monthly capacity of silicomanganese enterprises in China [7]. - **Annual Output**: There is a chart presenting the annual output of silicomanganese in regions like Guangxi, Guizhou, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Yunnan, other areas, and the whole country [8]. - **Weekly, Monthly Output and Operating Rate**: There is a chart showing the weekly and monthly output of silicomanganese in China and the weekly operating rate of silicomanganese enterprises in China [11]. - **Regional Output**: There are charts about the monthly output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guizhou, and the daily average output of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Guizhou, and Guangxi [13]. II. Manganese Silicon Demand - **Steel Tender Purchase Price**: There is a chart showing the monthly purchase prices of silicomanganese 6517 by enterprises such as Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd., Baowu Egang, Chengde Jianlong, etc. [16]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal and Profitability**: There is a chart presenting the weekly daily average hot metal output of 247 steel enterprises in China and their weekly profitability [18]. III. Manganese Silicon Import and Export - There is a chart showing the monthly import and export volumes of ferromanganese silicon in China [20]. IV. Manganese Silicon Inventory - There is a chart showing the weekly inventory of 63 sample silicomanganese enterprises in China, the monthly average available days of inventory in China, the monthly average available days of inventory in the northern region, and the monthly average available days of inventory in the eastern region [22]. V. Manganese Silicon Cost - **Manganese Ore Import Volume**: There is a chart showing the monthly import volume of manganese ore by trade method, the monthly import volume of manganese ore from Gabon to China, the monthly import volume of manganese ore from southern Africa to China, and the monthly import volume of manganese ore from Australia to China [24]. - **Manganese Ore Port Inventory and Available Days**: There are charts showing the weekly port inventory of manganese ore in China, in Qinzhou Port, and in Tianjin Port, as well as the weekly average available days of manganese ore inventory in China [26]. - **High - grade Manganese Ore Port Inventory**: There is a chart showing the weekly port inventory of high - grade manganese ore in Qinzhou Port and Tianjin Port from different origins such as Australia, Gabon, and Brazil [28]. - **Tianjin Port Manganese Ore Price**: There is a chart showing the daily prices of different types of manganese ore in Tianjin Port, including South African semi - carbonated manganese lumps, Australian manganese ore, and Gabonese manganese lumps [29]. - **Regional Cost**: There is a chart showing the daily cost of silicomanganese in regions such as Inner Mongolia, the northern region, Ningxia, the southern region, and Guangxi [30]. VI. Manganese Silicon Profit - There is a chart showing the daily profit of silicomanganese in regions such as the northern region, the southern region, Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, and Guangxi [32].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - PTA: Prices are expected to fluctuate based on cost factors in the short - term, with attention on polyester upstream and downstream device changes. The price rose slightly and then fell rapidly this week. The futures market followed the cost - end trend on Friday, and the impact of PTA's own device changes on the market was limited. The spot basis was weak [5]. - MEG: The price is expected to adjust at a low level in the short - term. The market sentiment has been affected by new device progress and weak terminal markets. There is an expectation of inventory accumulation starting from the fourth quarter, putting pressure on the market. The opening rate dropped slightly to below 74% on Friday, mainly due to the temporary shutdown of Xinjiang Tianye [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day Review No relevant information provided. 2. Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, some major suppliers sold goods. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 85 to the 01 contract, with prices ranging from 4510 - 4605. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 70 to the 01 contract. The mainstream spot basis was 01 - 82 [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4555, and the 01 contract basis was - 49, with the futures price higher than the spot price [6]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory was 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [6]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [6]. - **Main Position**: Net short position, with short positions increasing [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the price of ethylene glycol adjusted at a low level. The price fluctuated slightly during the day, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, next - week's spot was traded at a premium of 93 - 96 yuan/ton to the 01 contract. The external market price also adjusted weakly, with recent shipments traded at 514 - 518 US dollars/ton [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4352, and the 01 contract basis was 95, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: Net short position [7]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, PTA production capacity increased steadily, and changes in supply, demand, and inventory showed certain periodicity. For example, in 2025, the production capacity increased from 8602 in January to 9472 in December. The supply - demand gap also fluctuated, with some months showing a supply surplus and others a deficit [13]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production and supply of ethylene glycol also changed. The total supply and demand showed an overall upward trend, and the inventory at ports also changed accordingly. For example, in 2025, the total supply increased from 250 in January to 252 in December [14]. Price Data - **Spot Prices**: On September 19, 2025, compared with the previous day, the spot price of naphtha increased by 9 US dollars/ton to 584.5 US dollars/ton, the spot price of PX increased by 17 US dollars/ton to 854 US dollars/ton, the domestic PTA price index decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 4530 yuan/ton, and the domestic MEG price index remained unchanged at 4342 yuan/ton [15]. - **Futures Prices**: The prices of PTA and MEG futures contracts generally decreased. For example, the TA01 contract decreased by 62 yuan/ton to 4604 yuan/ton, and the EG01 contract decreased by 11 yuan/ton to 4257 yuan/ton [15]. - **Profit Data**: PTA processing fees decreased by 495.314 yuan/ton to - 55.83 yuan/ton. The internal - market profit of naphtha - based MEG decreased by 14.731 yuan/ton to - 1154.59 yuan/ton, while the internal - market profit of externally - purchased ethylene - based MEG increased by 116.601 yuan/ton to - 875.67 yuan/ton [15]. 5. Other Data (Graphs and Trends) - **PET Bottle Chip Data**: Included price, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, and other data trends from 2020 - 2025 [18][21][23][26]. - **Spread Data**: Included PTA and MEG month - to - month spreads, basis spreads, and spot spreads from 2020 - 2025 [27][34][42]. - **Inventory Data**: Included inventory trends of PTA, MEG, PET chips, and polyester products from 2020 - 2025 [44][46][50][53]. - **Operating Rate Data**: Included upstream and downstream operating rates of polyester from 2020 - 2025, such as PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [55][57][59][61]. - **Profit Data**: Included PTA processing fees, MEG production profit, and polyester fiber production profit from 2022 - 2025 [63][65][67].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core View The international raw sugar price has fallen below 16 cents again, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures have been oscillating downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in sugar imports, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is generally in a weak oscillating trend [6][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review The document does not contain content related to the previous day's review. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: The ISO predicts a global sugar supply gap of 231,000 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates Brazil's central - southern sugar production in the 25/26 season to be 40.6 million tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of August 2025, China's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons; in July, the total import of syrup and premixed powder was 159,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 68,500 tons. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5,940 yuan, and the basis for the 01 contract is 479 yuan, indicating a premium over the futures, which is bullish [7]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August, the industrial inventory in the 24/25 season was 1.16 million tons, which is neutral [7]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [7]. - **Main Position**: The position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear, which is bearish [7]. - **Expectations**: The international raw sugar price has fallen below 16 cents again, and the domestic Zhengzhou sugar futures have been oscillating downward, hitting a two - year low. With the approaching end of the domestic consumption peak season and a significant increase in sugar imports, the main contract 01 of Zhengzhou sugar futures is generally in a weak oscillating trend [6][10]. 3.3 Today's Focus The document does not contain content related to today's focus. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Supply - demand Balance**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 season. The ISO predicts a supply gap of 231,000 tons; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 4.7 million tons; StoneX predicts a surplus of 1.21 million tons; Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 199.1 million tons; USDA predicts a 4.7% year - on - year increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption in the 25/26 season, with a surplus of 11.397 million tons [5][10][36]. - **Domestic Data**: China's sugar production, sales, import, and consumption data are as follows: in the 24/25 season, cumulative sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, cumulative sales were 10 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In August 2025, China imported 830,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 60,000 tons. The domestic sugar consumption is expected to be 15.9 million tons in the 25/26 season [5][37]. - **Price**: The international raw sugar price is expected to be in the range of 16.5 - 21.5 cents per pound in the 25/26 season, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5,800 - 6,500 yuan per ton [37]. 3.5 Position Data The main position is bearish, the net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is unclear [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The prices of edible oils are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic edible oil supply is stable. The USDA's South American production forecast for the 24/25 season is high, the Malaysian palm oil inventory is neutral, the demand has improved, Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the US biodiesel policy for soybean oil supports the increase in biodiesel consumption. The imposition of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed in China has led to the rise of rapeseed products, and the domestic edible oil fundamentals are neutral with stable import inventories. The easing of Sino-US and Sino-Canadian relations affects the market at the macro level [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in May, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month-on-month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end-of-month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral, with less-than-expected production cuts. Currently, shipping survey agencies show that the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month has increased by 4% month-on-month, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,408, with a basis of 80, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, up 20,000 tons from the previous period and 11.7% higher year-on-year [2] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [2] - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased [2] - **Expectation**: The soybean oil Y2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,100 - 8,500 [2] Daily View - Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [3] - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 9,318, with a basis of 2, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [3] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 34.1% lower year-on-year [3] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [3] - **Main Position**: The main palm oil contract has changed from long to short [3] - **Expectation**: The palm oil P2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,100 - 9,500 [3] Daily View - Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil and palm oil, the MPOB report is neutral, and the supply of palm oil will increase in the subsequent production season [4] - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,203, with a basis of 135, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [4] - **Inventory**: On August 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous period and 3.2% higher year-on-year [4] - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20-day moving average, and the 20-day moving average is upward [4] - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased [4] - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil OI2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,800 - 10,200 [4] Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: The US soybean stock-to-use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5] - **利空**: The prices of edible oils are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic edible oil inventory has been continuously increasing. The macroeconomy is weak, and the expected production of related edible oils is high [5] - **Main Logic**: The global edible oil fundamentals are relatively loose [5]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-22 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 • 主要逻辑：国际价格，国内需求边际变化 • 主要风险点：出口政策变化 | | 现货行情 | | | 期货盘面 | | 库 | | 存 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地 区 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 主力合约 | 价 格 | 变 化 | 类 型 数 | | 量 | 变 化 | | 现货交割品 | 1720 | -10 | 01合约 | 1661 | - 9 | 仓 单 | 7810 | | -378 | | 山东现货 | 1720 | -10 | 基 差 | 5 9 | - 1 | UR综合库存 137 | . | 1 | 0 0 . | | 河南现货 | 1730 | 0 | UR01 | 1 ...