交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，根据隆众，2025年12月份沥青总计划排产量为215.8万吨，环比降幅3.24%。本周国内 石油沥青样本产能利用率为30.0815%，环比增加0.599个百分点，全国样本企业出货28.06万吨，环 比增加7.06%,样本企业产量为50.2万吨，环比增加2.03%,样本企业装置检修量预估为82.6万吨，环 比减少4.61%,本周炼厂有所增产，提升供应压力。下周或将增加供给压力。 需求端来看，重交沥青开工率为27.9%，环比增加0.00个百分点，低于历史平均水平；建筑沥青开工 率为6.6%，环比持平，低于历史平均水平；改性沥青开工率为9.2238% ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean meal M2605 is expected to oscillate in the range of 2720 - 2780. The market is neutral, with factors like uncertain Chinese purchases of US soybeans, South American soybean production expectations, and domestic demand and inventory conditions influencing the price [9]. - The soybean A2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 4040 - 4140. The market is neutral, affected by factors such as Chinese soybean - purchasing policies, South American weather, and domestic soybean production and demand [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt No relevant information provided. 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but the quantity of Chinese purchases and US soybean weather are still uncertain. The US soybean market is expected to oscillate strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills dropped from a high in November. Affected by factors such as normal US soybean harvesting weather and the preliminary trade agreement, soybean meal has returned to range - bound oscillation [13]. - The reduction in domestic pig - breeding profits has led to low expectations for pig restocking, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing price expectations. The soybean meal market is in a range - bound oscillation influenced by US soybean trends and the off - season of demand [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. Affected by factors such as the possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the preliminary China - US trade agreement, soybean meal will maintain range - bound oscillation in the short term [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns Bullish Factors for Soybean Meal - The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans [14]. - There is no pressure on the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills [14]. - There are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. Bearish Factors for Soybean Meal - The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained at a relatively high level in November [15]. - Brazilian soybeans have started planting, and South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest under normal weather conditions [15]. Bullish Factors for Soybeans - The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean market [16]. - The expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [16]. Bearish Factors for Soybeans - Brazilian soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest, and China has increased its purchases of Brazilian soybeans [16]. - The increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price of soybeans [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio also fluctuated and increased [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: From 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, production, and import volume of domestic soybeans changed, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio also showed certain fluctuations [34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvesting Progress**: The planting and harvesting progress of soybeans in the US, Brazil, and Argentina in different years and periods is presented, including the comparison with the same period last year and the five - year average [35][36][37][38][39][40][41][42][43][44][45]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: The planting area, yield, production, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are provided, as well as the production data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - **Arrival Volume of Imported Soybeans**: The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China from 2020 to 2025 is presented, showing that the arrival volume decreased from a high in November 2025 but increased overall year - on - year [49]. - **Inventory and Production of Oil Mills**: The soybean inventory of oil mills remains at a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has returned to a high level. The unexecuted contracts of oil mills have dropped to a low level, and the demand for stockpiling has decreased. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills has dropped from a high, and the soybean meal production in September increased year - on - year [50][52][54]. - **Cost and Profit**: The import cost of Brazilian soybeans has oscillated and increased following US soybeans, and the on - market profit has fluctuated slightly [56]. - **Pig - Breeding Situation**: The pig inventory has maintained an upward trend, the sow inventory is flat year - on - year and slightly decreased month - on - month. The pig price has fluctuated slightly recently, and the piglet price has remained weak. The proportion of large pigs in China has increased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs has increased slightly. The domestic pig - breeding profit has decreased slightly [58][60][62][64]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rapeseed meal RM2605 is expected to fluctuate within the range of 2280 - 2340. It is currently in an oscillatory state, influenced by soybean meal trends, technical adjustments, and the pending final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. Although the peak demand season for rapeseed meal has passed, the low inventory supports the market. With uncertainties in China - Canada trade negotiations, the short - term trend will maintain an oscillatory pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal futures have rebounded, and the spot price has followed the fluctuations, with a slight change in the spot premium. The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has fluctuated slightly, and the price difference of the 2605 contract has slightly widened. The arrival of imported rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost has been affected by tariffs. The oil mill's rapeseed inventory and rapeseed meal inventory are both at low levels, and the rapeseed crushing volume has remained at zero [18][20][23]. 3.2 Recent News - The domestic aquaculture industry has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the short - term supply in the spot market is expected to be tight. The demand side is gradually decreasing, which suppresses the market expectation. Canadian rapeseed has entered the harvesting stage, but the China - Canada trade issue has reduced short - term exports and the domestic supply is expected to decrease. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports found it to be established, and an import deposit of 75.8% has been imposed. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, with the decrease in Ukrainian rapeseed production and the increase in Russian rapeseed production offsetting each other. The global geopolitical conflict may still rise, which supports commodities [11]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish factors**: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the imposition of import deposits; the low inventory pressure of rapeseed meal in oil mills. - **Bearish factors**: The domestic demand for rapeseed meal is gradually entering the off - season; there is still a small probability that China and Canada will reach a settlement in the anti - dumping case of Canadian rapeseed imports. - **Current main logic**: The market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff battle on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Price data**: The report provides the trading average price and trading volume of soybean meal and rapeseed meal from December 1st to 9th, as well as the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal. It also shows the prices of rapeseed meal futures (near - month 2601 and main 2605) and the spot price in Fujian during the same period [13][15]. - **Inventory data**: As of a certain period, the rapeseed meal inventory is 1.75 tons, a 2.78% week - on - week decrease from last week's 1.8 tons and a 20.45% year - on - year decrease from 2.2 tons last year [9]. - **Aquaculture data**: The price of aquatic fish has slightly decreased, while the price of shrimp and shellfish has remained stable [35]. 3.5 Position Data The main long positions of rapeseed meal have decreased, but the capital has flowed in [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 电石法成本走弱，乙烯法成本走弱，总体成本走弱；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少， 6、预期: 预计排产将会增加。总体库存处于高位；当前需求或持续低迷；持续关注宏观政策及出口动态， PVC2601:在4340-4394区间震荡。 3 每日观点 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年11月PVC产量为207.926万吨，环比减少2.29%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为79.89%，环比减少0.00个百分点；电石法企业产量35.5176万吨，环比减少0.10%,乙烯法企业产 量13.526万吨，环比增加1.46%；本周供给压力有所减少；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年12月10日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘继续回调，价格回到20均线以下，20均线上下震荡。近期部分产能减产，供应压力减 轻。产业链上，印尼招标落地，镍矿价格小幅回落，海运费持平，印尼2026年RKAB配额预计3.19亿吨， 预期供应宽松。镍铁价格稳中有小幅下降，成本线有所止跌启稳。不锈钢库存小幅回落。精炼镍库存持 续高位，过剩格局不变。新能源汽车产销数据良好，但总体镍需求提振有限。偏空 2、基差：现货120350，基差3000，偏多 3、库存：LME库存252528，-816，上交所仓单34361，-139，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线以上，20均线向下，中性 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空增，偏空 6、结论：沪镍26 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-10 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，11月份，官方PMI为49.2，比上月回升0.2个百分点，制造业景气度平 稳。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。煤炭价格回落，煤制利润有所好转。供需端，农 膜需求处于弱势，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6640（-10）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差30，升贴水比例0.5%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存49.7万吨（-0.4），中性； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoint The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to mainly move in a volatile and downward trend in the short term [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily View - The supply of soda ash is expected to be abundant with high production from alkali plants and the expected commissioning of Yuangxing Phase II before the year. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass continues to decline, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level. The basis shows futures premium over spot, the price is below the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line pointing downwards, and the main position is net short with short positions decreasing. Overall, the short - term outlook is bearish [2]. Influencing Factors - **Likely Factors**: Equipment problems lead to reduced maintenance in enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large commissioning plans this year, with industry production at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass has cut production, weakening the demand for soda ash [4]. Main Logic The supply of soda ash is at a high level, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1125 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.71% from the previous value. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.45% from the previous value. The main basis is - 5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 72.22% from the previous value [6]. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1120 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous day [11]. - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy soda ash using the North China ammonia - alkali method is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that using the East China co - production method is - 220 yuan/ton, both at historical lows [14]. - **Operating Rate and Production**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.74%. The weekly production of soda ash is 70.39 tons, including 38.15 tons of heavy soda ash, at a historical high [17][20]. - **Capacity Changes**: In 2023, the newly added production capacity was 640 tons; in 2024, it was 180 tons; in 2025, the planned newly added production capacity is 750 tons, with an actual commissioning of 100 tons [21]. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [24]. - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [27]. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national in - plant inventory of soda ash is 153.86 tons, a decrease of 3.07% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [34]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operating rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, and growth rates [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: On the eve of the Fed's interest - rate decision, the number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased, and risk appetite decreased, causing the gold price to rise slightly. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to around - 4.6 yuan/gram. Based on historical performance, the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting, so cautious operation is recommended [4]. - **Silver**: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and risk appetite has decreased. Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night, pushing the silver price to a new high. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 380 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment remains strong. However, the sustainability of overnight capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to the intraday position changes [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US 10 - year JOLTS job openings unexpectedly increased before the Fed's interest - rate decision. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.45% to $4236.6 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory remains unchanged, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: Before the Fed's interest - rate decision, Shanghai silver saw an increase of 50,000 lots at night. The US three major stock indices closed mixed, European three major stock indices closed mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose 0.14% to 99.24, and COMEX silver futures rose 4.72% to $61.16 per ounce. The basis is neutral, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased, the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it, and the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: Pay attention to the Fed's interest - rate decision and Powell's speech early the next morning, and China's November CPI, speeches by the ECB president and officials, and the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer's defense of the tax - increase plan today. The market is waiting for the Fed's meeting decision, and the increase in job openings in October has cooled risk appetite, causing the gold price to rise slightly. Be cautious as the gold price may reach a stage high on the day before the Fed meeting [4]. - **Silver**: The market is waiting for the Fed meeting, and the increase in positions at night has pushed the silver price to a new high. The sustainability of capital inflows is questionable, and attention should be paid to intraday position changes [5]. 3.3. Today's Focus - **Events**: At 09:30, China's November CPI and PPI; the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will attend a hearing to defend a £26 billion tax - increase budget; at 18:45, the Bank of England Governor Bailey will speak; at 18:55, the ECB President Lagarde will speak in London; at 20:30, ECB Governing Council member Sharon Donnery will host a panel discussion; at 22:45, the Bank of Canada will announce its interest - rate decision; early the next morning, various central bank officials will speak, and the Fed will announce its FOMC interest - rate decision, economic outlook, and the US November government budget, followed by a press conference by Fed Chairman Powell; at 05:30, the Central Bank of Brazil will announce its interest - rate decision [14]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 4.82, indicating that the spot is at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures is 91,299 kg and remains unchanged; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 5, the inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 18,497 kg to 717,788 kg; the 20 - day moving average is upward with the k - line above it; the main net position is long but the long position is decreasing [5]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The main net position is long, but the long position is decreasing. The long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 3.02% to 173,310 lots, the short position decreased by 1.39% to 58,766 lots, and the net long position decreased by 3.83% to 114,544 lots [4][29]. - **Silver**: The main net position is long, and the long position of the top 20 holders decreased by 0.70% to 406,455 lots, the short position decreased by 1.81% to 300,238 lots, and the net long position increased by 2.56% to 106,217 lots [5][31]. - **ETF Positions**: The SPDR gold ETF position decreased slightly, while the silver ETF position increased again [33][35]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continued to decrease but remained at a high level, the Shanghai silver warehouse receipts continued to increase and were at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts started to decrease [37][38][40].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-10） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：部分煤矿因完成年度任务及井下搬迁工作面等因素而停减产，焦煤供应整体增量有限。近 期焦煤市场交投氛围一般，部分矿点出货乏力，库存小幅累积，然部分价格回落的煤种成交销售也有所 好转，但整体价格还是偏弱，线上竞拍市场也多降价成交，需求的疲软对于炼焦煤价格难以形成支撑； 偏空 利 多：1.铁水产量上涨 2.供应难有增量 利 空：1.焦钢企业对原料煤采购放缓 2.钢材价格疲软 2、基差：现货市场价1170，基差87.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 6、预期：钢厂利润小幅亏损，仍 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have slightly declined due to the shutdown of some western plants, and the comprehensive inventory has decreased with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural and industrial demands are mainly on - demand. The operating rate of compound fertilizers has significantly increased year - on - year, and the winter storage demand is strong, boosting the market sentiment. However, the domestic urea market is still in oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (-10), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. It is expected that the urea main contract will show a weak and downward trend today, and the market will fluctuate weakly [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate down, inventory down, demand on - demand, winter storage strong, but overall oversupply, spot 1680 (-10), fundamentals neutral [5]. - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2601 contract is 37, and the premium/discount ratio is 2.2%, which is bullish [5]. - **Inventory**: UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons (-6.8), which is bearish [5]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is flat, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, which is bearish [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position of the UR main contract is decreasing, which is bearish [5]. - **Expectation**: The urea main contract is weakly downward, industrial demand is on - demand, inventory is de - stocking, and the domestic oversupply is obvious. It is expected to fluctuate weakly today [5]. - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is inventory de - stocking; bearish factors are domestic oversupply and new high in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and domestic demand marginal changes [6]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | **Spot** | Spot delivery product price is 1680 (-10), Shandong spot is 1690 (0), Henan spot is 1680 (0), FOB China is 2765 [7]. | | **Futures** | 01 contract price is 1643 (-3), UR05 is 1711 (1), UR09 is 1721 (-3), basis is 37 (-7) [7]. | | **Inventory** | Warehouse receipts are 11477 (-49), UR comprehensive inventory is 139.6 million tons, UR manufacturer inventory is 129.1 million tons, UR port inventory is 10.5 million tons [7]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2245.5 | - | 1956.81 | 18.6% | 2405.19 | 23.66 | 2405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2445.5 | 8.9% | 2240 | 17.9% | 2727.94 | 37.86 | 2713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2825.5 | 15.5% | 2580.98 | 19.3% | 3200.1 | 37.83 | 3200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3148.5 | 11.4% | 2927.99 | 10.7% | 3280.4 | 35.72 | 3282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3413.5 | 8.4% | 2965.46 | 10.2% | 3300.83 | 44.62 | 3291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3893.5 | 14.1% | 3193.59 | 8.4% | 3486.72 | 44.65 | 3486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4418.5 | 13.5% | 3425 | 9.5% | 3785 | 51.4 | 3778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [10]