1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA, the supply has recently returned, and with some major suppliers selling goods, the spot market liquidity is fair. The market supply - demand outlook is weak, and the spot basis is gradually declining. PTA spot prices mainly fluctuate following the cost side. Attention should be paid to polyester upstream - downstream device changes and terminal demand [5]. - For MEG, the port inventory increased slightly this week, but it's unlikely to be persistent this month. Due to pre - holiday stocking, polyester factories still have demand for low - price restocking. In the short term, MEG supply - demand remains tight, and the basis has some support during the delivery period. However, with the progress of new device commissioning, the supply - demand will turn loose in the far - month, and the futures price is under pressure. Attention should be paid to device changes [7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1.前日回顾 - No relevant content provided 3.2.每日提示 - **PTA Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: PTA futures fluctuated briefly following the cost side yesterday and finally closed slightly lower. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis changed little. September goods were traded at a discount of 75 - 80 to the 01 contract, with the price negotiation range around 4585 - 4670. October goods were traded at a discount of 55 - 60 to the 01 contract. Today's mainstream spot basis is 01 - 77 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4626, and the 01 contract basis is - 40, with the futures price higher than the spot price [5]. - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventory is 3.8 days, a decrease of 0.04 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [5]. - **Main Position**: The net short position increased [5]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to polyester device changes and terminal demand [5]. - **MEG Daily View** - **Fundamentals**: On Thursday, the ethylene glycol price fluctuated weakly. In the morning, the MEG futures fluctuated narrowly, with traders mainly conducting swap transactions. Near noon, the futures price declined weakly, and the spot basis strengthened moderately. In the afternoon, affected by a cracking anomaly in a South China device, the market sentiment was boosted. In the US dollar market, the center of the ethylene glycol outer - market price adjusted widely. In the morning, recent shipments were negotiated around 516 - 519 US dollars/ton, and in the afternoon, the negotiation center回调 to 514 - 515 US dollars/ton. The difference between the inner and outer markets was large, and the buying follow - up was weak [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4362, and the 01 contract basis is 94, with the spot price higher than the futures price [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region is 38.17 tons, an increase of 0.93 tons compared to the previous period [8]. - **Futures Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average [8]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased [7]. - **Expectation**: As mentioned above, pay attention to port shipment conditions and device changes [7]. 3.3.今日关注 - **Influencing Factors Summary** - **Positive Factors**: The average operating load of polyester devices has further increased to 91.3%, a 1 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. With the approaching of the traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, the market's expectation of demand start is slightly reflected. Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton device is under maintenance and is expected to restart in November [11]. - **Negative Factors**: The profit margins of each link in the industrial chain continue to be under pressure, and the overall operating atmosphere remains cautious [10]. - **Current Main Logic and Risk Points** - Short - term commodity markets are greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and for the futures price rebound, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. 3.4.基本面数据 - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, export, consumption, inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the PTA capacity is 9172, the output is 626, the total supply is 626, the total demand is 624, and the inventory at the end of the period is 337 [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply - demand situation from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, supply, consumption, port inventory, etc. For example, in September 2025, the EG output is 58, the total supply is 234, the total demand is 233, and the supply - demand difference is 2 [13]. - **Price Data**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, polyester filaments, and their changes from September 17 to September 18, 2025. For example, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) increased from 575.5 to 584.5 US dollars/ton, and the CCFEI price index of PTA (domestic) decreased from 4630 to 4590 yuan/ton [14]. - **Inventory Data**: It shows the inventory situation of PTA, MEG, PET chips, polyester filaments, etc. from 2021 to 2025, including factory - inventory available days and port inventory [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It shows the operating rate situation of PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and downstream weaving machines from 2020 to 2025 [54][56][58][60]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the profit situation of PTA, MEG, polyester fibers, etc. from 2022 to 2025, including processing fees and production gross margins [62][64][66][68][69].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-19 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1730（-30），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差60，升贴水比例3.5%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term. The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that glass will show a weak and fluctuating trend [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals: Glass production profit has declined, the industry is at a high level of cold repair, and the operating rate and output have dropped to the lowest level in the same period in history. The downstream deep - processing orders are generally weak, worse than the same period in previous years, and the real - estate terminal demand is weak [2] - Basis: The spot price of float glass in Hebei Shahe is 1080 yuan/ton, the closing price of FG2601 is 1208 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 128 yuan, with the futures at a premium to the spot [2] - Inventory: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2] - Disk: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [2] - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position increases [2] - Expectation: The glass fundamentals are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate mainly in the short term [2] Influence Factor Summary - Bullish Factors: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3] - Bearish Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the order volume of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period; the capital collection of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original sheet inventory; the market sentiment of "anti - involution" has subsided [4] Main Logic - The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is sluggish, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that glass will show a weak and fluctuating trend [5] Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1208 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.11% from the previous value; the spot price of Shahe Safety large - board is 1080 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous value; the main basis is - 128 yuan, a decrease of 16.88% from the previous value [6] Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, is 1080 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] Fundamentals - Cost Side - Not provided in detail Fundamentals - Production - The number of operating float glass production lines in the country is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, and the number of operating glass production lines is at a historical low in the same period; the daily melting capacity of national float glass is 160,200 tons, with the production capacity at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing a stable rebound [22][24] Fundamentals - Demand - In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons [28] Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 60.908 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.10% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [2][42] Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, apparent supply, consumption, production growth rate, consumption growth rate, and net import ratio [43]

1、基本面：碳中和控制产能扩张，下游需求不强劲，房地产延续疲软，宏观短期情绪多变；中性。 2、基差：现货20790，基差5，升水期货，中性。 3、库存：上期所铝库存较上周增4421吨至 128499吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓多，多增；偏多。 6、预期：碳中和催发铝行业变革，长期利多铝价，美再扩大钢铝关税，多空交织，铝价震荡运行. 沪铝早报- 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 ：祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铝: 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 降息和需求疲软博弈 1、碳中和控制产能扩张。 2、俄乌地缘政治扰动，影响俄铝供应。 3、降息 1、全球经济并不乐观，高铝价会压制下游消费。 2、铝材出口退税取消 每日汇总 | 现货 昨日 ...

Report Overview - The report provides an analysis of the soda ash market, including daily views, influencing factors, main logic, and market data [2][3][4] 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report 2. Core View - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory levels. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Directory Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is rare, supply remains high; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is average, and soda ash plant inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,306 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 96 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot; bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average; bearish [2] - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2] Influencing Factors - **Positive Factors**: The peak maintenance period this year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, soda ash production capacity has expanded significantly, and there are still large production plans this year; the downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy soda ash has reduced production, weakening the demand for soda ash; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has faded [4] Main Logic - The supply of soda ash is high, terminal demand is declining, inventory is at a high level for the same period, and the industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved [5] Soda Ash Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 1,306 yuan/ton, a 2.10% decrease from the previous value; the low - end price of heavy soda ash in Shahe is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 2.02% decrease; the main basis is - 96 yuan, a 3.03% decrease [6] Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,210 yuan/ton, a 25 - yuan decrease from the previous day [11] Production Profit - The profit of heavy soda ash in North China's ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and in East China's co - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit has rebounded from a historical low [14] Capacity and Production - The weekly industry operation rate of soda ash is 87.29%. The weekly production of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the production is at a historical high [17][19] New Capacity - From 2023 to 2025, a large amount of new soda ash production capacity has been added or is planned, with a total planned capacity of 1,570 tons and an actual production capacity of 100 tons in 2025 [20] Demand Analysis - **Sales - to - Production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operation rate of 76.01% is stable; the price of photovoltaic glass has been continuously falling, and under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has reduced production, and the in - production daily melting volume has continued a significant downward trend [26][32] Inventory Analysis - The national soda ash plant inventory is 1.7556 million tons, a 2.33% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [35] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of soda ash from 2017 to 2024E, including data on effective capacity, production, operation rate, imports, exports, net imports, apparent supply, total demand, supply - demand differences, and growth rates [36]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report's overall view on PVC investment is bearish [10] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC has increased this week, and production scheduling is expected to increase next week. The overall inventory is at a high level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. The PVC2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4944 - 5002 [9]. - The main logic is that the overall supply pressure is strong, and the domestic demand recovery is sluggish [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Bullish factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [12]. - Bearish factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand [12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, PVC production was 2.07334 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.43%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 77.13%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. Calcium carbide method enterprise production was 327,885 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.68%, and ethylene method enterprise production was 134,060 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.11%. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Demand - The overall downstream operating rate was 43.5%, a month - on - month increase of 0.899 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream profile operating rate was 38.39%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.21 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream pipe operating rate was 33.48%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.13 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The downstream film operating rate was 70.77%, unchanged from the previous month, higher than the historical average. The downstream paste resin operating rate was 74.07%, a month - on - month increase of 0.809 percentage points, higher than the historical average. Shipping costs are expected to decline, and domestic PVC export prices are competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [7]. 3.2.3 Cost - The profit of the calcium carbide method was - 420.96 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 5.40%, lower than the historical average. The profit of the ethylene method was - 670.97 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 6.80%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton spread was 2516.05 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in profit of 3.00%, lower than the historical average. Production scheduling may be under pressure [8]. 3.2.4 Basis - On September 17, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4850 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 123 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. This is bearish [9]. 3.2.5 Inventory - Factory inventory was 315,801 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.17%. Calcium carbide method factory inventory was 251,301 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.77%. Ethylene method factory inventory was 64,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.85%. Social inventory was 533,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.12%. The in - stock days of production enterprises were 5.2 days, a month - on - month decrease of 0.95% [9]. 3.2.6 Disk - MA20 is downward, and the price of the 01 contract closed above MA20. This is neutral [9]. 3.2.7 Main Position - The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing. This is bearish [9]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides a detailed overview of the PVC market on the previous day, including prices, spreads, operating rates, and inventory data of different types and regions [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market - The report presents the basis trend, price trend, trading volume, open interest, and spread analysis of PVC futures [17][20][23]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis - **Calcium Carbide Method**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda [26][29][31][34]. - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the capacity utilization rates, production, and maintenance volumes of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method, as well as the daily and weekly production of PVC [38][40]. - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume of traders, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and operating rates of downstream products such as profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also analyzes real - estate investment, construction area, new construction area, sales area, completion area, social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment [42][45][49][52]. - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and inventory days of production enterprises [53]. - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volumes of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC exports, and price spreads [55]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import data of PVC from July 2024 to August 2025 [59].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 1 ࠠݺܶठ 近期多空分析 利多： ࡉीһי 2 ܨݤׁޯ 3 4 ߳ҒࢩӐ 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：供需逻辑不同预计本周国内甲醇呈现区域性走势，整体或呈北强南弱走势。内地方面，产区烯烃需求明显 增量致使区域内甲醇供应紧张，供需紧平衡的利好驱动下，本周产区预计走高概率较大。销区方面，下游有节前备货需 求，以及运费仍有上涨空间，贸易商有惜售情绪，共同支撑下游到货价格走高。但套利空间打开后，港口货源可倒流内 地，制约销区甲醇价格上涨幅度。港口方面，伊朗10月缺气检修，且伊朗busher一套年产165万吨甲醇装置上周临时停 车，后续进口货源逐步减少，远月强预期；同时港口主力烯烃装置近期重启叠加十一假期前 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with over - supply and relatively weak demand. The downward trend is difficult to reverse due to capacity mismatch. Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [8][9][13]. - The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate has increased, resulting in losses in production. The cost of purchasing lithium mica remains unchanged, also with losses. The production cost at the recycling end is close to that of the ore end, with average production enthusiasm. The cash production cost at the salt - lake end is significantly lower, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. Next month's demand is expected to strengthen, and inventory may be reduced [8][9]. - **Cost Side**: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate increased week - on - week, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate was 75,311 yuan/ton, a 0.33% day - on - day increase, resulting in a loss of 3,227 yuan/ton. The cost of purchasing lithium mica was 77,345 yuan/ton, unchanged day - on - day, resulting in a loss of 7,245 yuan/ton [9][10]. - **Market Outlook**: Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 72320 - 74960 [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High - level supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Carbonate Lithium Market Overview - **Price Changes**: The prices of most lithium - related products increased slightly. For example, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.41% to 73,150 yuan/ton, and the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.42% to 70,900 yuan/ton [16]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate remained unchanged at 66.41%. The monthly output of lithium carbonate in August 2025 was 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase from the previous month. The import volume decreased by 21.77% to 13,845.31 tons [19]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.96% to 264,720 tons, and the monthly output of lithium iron phosphate increased by 8.84% to 316,400 tons. The monthly power battery loading volume increased by 11.81% to 62,500 GWh [19]. 3.3 Supply - Lithium Ore - **Price and Production**: The price of lithium ore showed a certain upward trend, and the production of lithium spodumene and lithium mica mines also had corresponding changes. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly by 34.73% to 576,138 tons [26]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the domestic lithium ore market, with shortages in most months [29]. 3.4 Supply - Carbonate Lithium - **Production and Capacity**: The weekly and monthly production of lithium carbonate showed an upward trend, and the production capacity also increased. The monthly output in August 2025 was 85,240 tons [32]. - **Import and Export**: The import volume decreased, and the export volume was relatively small. The monthly import volume in August was 17,000 tons [32][39]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market, with shortages in some months [39]. 3.5 Supply - Lithium Hydroxide - **Production and Capacity**: The production of lithium hydroxide decreased, and the operating rate also declined. The monthly output in August 2025 was 21,820 tons, a 13.31% decrease from the previous month [19]. - **Export and Import**: The export volume decreased significantly, and the import volume was relatively small [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the lithium hydroxide market, with shortages in some months [45]. 3.6 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - **Cost and Profit of Different Raw Materials**: The cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica was relatively high, resulting in losses in production. The cost - profit situation of different recycling materials also varied [48][50]. - **Processing Cost and Profit**: The processing costs of lithium mica and lithium spodumene increased, and the profit of lithium carbonate purification and other processing links also changed [48][50]. 3.7 Inventory - **Carbonate Lithium Inventory**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased slightly, with a 1.12% week - on - week decrease to 138,512 tons. The inventory of smelters decreased, while the inventory of downstream and other parties increased [10]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The inventory of lithium hydroxide also showed certain changes, with the monthly inventory of downstream and smelters having corresponding fluctuations [55]. 3.8 Demand - Lithium Battery - **Battery Price and Cost**: The prices of some lithium batteries increased slightly, and the cost of battery cells also changed [59]. - **Production and Sales**: The monthly output and sales volume of lithium batteries increased, and the export volume also showed an upward trend [59]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of lithium battery cells showed different trends for different types of batteries [61]. 3.9 Demand - Ternary Precursor - **Price and Cost**: The price of ternary precursors showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary precursor decreased [64]. - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The monthly output of ternary precursors increased, and the capacity utilization rate also showed corresponding changes [64]. - **Supply - Demand Balance**: There was a supply - demand imbalance in the ternary precursor market, with shortages in some months [67]. 3.10 Demand - Ternary Material - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of the 5 - series (polycrystalline/consumer - type) ternary material decreased [70]. - **Production and Export - Import**: The production of ternary materials increased, and the export and import volumes also had corresponding changes [70][72]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of ternary materials showed certain fluctuations [72]. 3.11 Demand - Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium - **Price and Cost - Profit**: The price of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations, and the cost - profit situation also changed. The profit of iron phosphate lithium increased [74]. - **Production and Export**: The monthly output of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium increased, and the export volume of iron phosphate lithium also increased significantly [74][77]. - **Inventory**: The weekly inventory of iron phosphate lithium showed certain fluctuations [79]. 3.12 Demand - New Energy Vehicle - **Production, Sales, and Export**: The production, sales, and export volumes of new energy vehicles increased. The sales volume in August 2025 was 1.262 million vehicles, a 11.91% increase from the previous month [19][82]. - **Penetration Rate**: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles continued to increase [83].

Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Core Viewpoints - The US soybean market is affected by factors such as weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas, South American soybean harvest, and Sino - US trade relations. The domestic soybean and soybean meal markets are influenced by import volumes, demand, and price differentials, with short - term trends showing a return to a volatile pattern [8]. - The soybean meal M2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2980 - 3040 [8]. - The soybean A2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3840 - 3940 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - There is no specific content for this part in the report. 2. Recent News - Sino - US tariff negotiation progress is short - term positive for US soybeans. The US soybean market is awaiting the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiations and the harvest weather in the US soybean - producing areas [12]. - The domestic import of soybeans remains at a relatively high level in August. The soybean meal market is affected by factors such as the US soybean weather, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the rise of rapeseed meal prices, showing short - term volatility [12]. - The reduction in domestic pig - farming profits leads to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The demand for soybean meal has recently recovered, but due to uncertainties in Sino - US trade negotiations, the soybean meal market returns to a range - bound pattern [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns Soybean Meal - **Likely Positive Factors**: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, relatively low current soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills, and weather uncertainties in the US soybean - producing areas [13]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: High total volume of imported soybeans in September, the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest, and the expected high - yield of South American soybeans [13]. Soybeans - **Likely Positive Factors**: Cost support from imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand [14]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The expected high - yield of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in East China is 2920, with a basis of - 82, indicating a discount to futures. The oil mill's soybean meal inventory is 113.62 tons, a 5.32% increase from last week and a 15.76% decrease from the same period last year [8]. - **Soybeans**: The spot price in Jiamusi is 4140, with a basis of 245, indicating a premium to futures. The oil mill's soybean inventory is 731.7 tons, a 5% increase from last week and a 6.17% increase from the same period last year [8][10]. 5. Position Data - **Soybean Meal**: The main long positions have decreased, but there is capital inflow [8]. - **Soybeans**: The main long positions have increased, with capital inflow [10].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-18甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：供需逻辑不同预计本周国内甲醇呈现区域性走势，整体或呈北强南弱走势。内地方面，产区烯烃需求明显 增量致使区域内甲醇供应紧张，供需紧平衡的利好驱动下，本周产区预计走高概率较大。销区方面，下游有节前备货需 求，以及运费仍有上涨空间，贸易商有惜售情绪，共同支撑下游到货价格走高。但套利空间打开后，港口货源可倒流内 地，制约销区甲醇价格上涨幅度。港口方面，伊朗10月缺气检修，且伊朗busher一套年产165万吨甲醇装置上周临时停 车，后续进口货源逐步减少，远月强预期；同时港口主力烯烃装置近期重启叠加十一假期前补库，需求跟 ...