交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月5日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14650，基差-390 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线下运行 偏空 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空增 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-03甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著，整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面，随着久泰甲醇装置重启，后期烯 烃需求预期缩量，产区供需格局预期转弱，西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看，需求端增量逻辑明确：阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启，联泓新建烯烃项目预计12月上旬开车；同时，港口与河南至鲁北套利空间关闭后，销区本地供应补充 受限，供需偏紧格局将进一步凸显，南方销区价格支撑力较强，有望持续强于北方产区。港口方面，12月进口船期比11 月有明显增量，鉴于后续密集的进口到港船期和临近交割月巨大的仓单和现货压力，暂时对本轮甲醇涨势持 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production was 21,865 tons, a 1.19% decrease from the previous week, but higher than the historical average. In November 2025, the production was 95,350 physical tons, and it is predicted to reach 98,210 physical tons next month, a 3.00% increase [8][9]. - On the demand side, last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 104,341 tons, a 1.71% increase from the previous week, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 19,361 tons, a 0.37% increase [8]. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate was 95,970 yuan/ton, a 2.68% daily increase, resulting in a loss of 2,927 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lepidolite was 94,750 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a loss of 4,016 yuan/ton. The production cost on the recycling side is generally higher than that on the ore side, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost on the salt lake side is 31,477 yuan/ton, significantly lower than that on the ore side, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - The fundamentals are neutral; on December 2nd, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 94,400 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was - 2,160 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The smelter inventory was 24,324 tons, a 6.81% decrease from the previous week, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 41,984 tons, a 5.51% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 49,660 tons, a 3.72% increase from the previous week, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 115,968 tons, a 2.07% decrease from the previous week, higher than the historical average, which is neutral. The MA20 of the disk is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed above the MA20, which is bullish. The net position of the main players is short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [9]. - The expected price of lithium carbonate 2605 will fluctuate in the range of 92,980 - 96,740 yuan/ton. The bullish factors include the production cut plan of lepidolite manufacturers and the decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile. The bearish factor is the continuous high supply on the ore/salt lake side with limited decline [9][11][12]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight supply - demand balance [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoint - Supply: Last week's production decreased slightly, but November's production and next - month's predicted production increased. The cost of spodumene concentrate increased, while the cost of lepidolite remained unchanged. The salt lake side has cost advantages [8][9]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials sample enterprises increased last week [8]. - Cost: Most production methods are in a loss - making state, except for the salt lake side [9]. - Market Indicators: Fundamentals are neutral, basis is bearish, inventory is neutral, disk is bullish, and main positions are bearish [9]. - Expectation: The price will fluctuate within a certain range, affected by both bullish and bearish factors [9][11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Market Quotes Overview**: The prices of various lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium compounds, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, have different degrees of rise and fall. For example, the price of spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.50%, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased by 0.05% [15]. - **Supply - Related Data** - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore has changed, and the production, import, and self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore in different periods are presented. The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore shows different situations in each month [24][25][28]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The production, import, and export of lithium carbonate in different periods are provided, and the supply - demand balance also varies from month to month. The production and import of lithium carbonate in November 2025 increased compared with the previous period [30][31][37]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The capacity utilization rate, production, import, and export of lithium hydroxide are shown, and the supply - demand balance is also analyzed monthly [39][40][43]. - **Cost - Profit Data**: The cost, profit, and processing cost composition of various lithium compounds, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycled materials, are presented. Different production methods and materials have different cost - profit situations [45][46][48]. - **Inventory Data**: The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide, including smelter inventory, downstream inventory, and total inventory, shows different trends of increase and decrease [53][55]. - **Demand - Related Data** - **Lithium Batteries**: The price, production, sales, and export of lithium batteries are presented, as well as the inventory and winning bids of energy - storage batteries [56][57][59]. - **Ternary Precursors**: The price, cost, profit, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors are analyzed [61][62][65]. - **Ternary Materials**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials are provided [67][68][71]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium are presented [73][74][77]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: The production, sales, export, and penetration rate of new energy vehicles are shown, as well as the retail - wholesale ratio and dealer inventory index [81][82][86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to increase as refineries have recently increased production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average and remains sluggish due to the off - season. The cost support may weaken in the short term as crude oil prices decline. It is predicted that the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2890 - 2942 in the short term. The overall fundamental outlook is bearish [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high price of crude oil provides some support [10]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced asphalt, and the overall demand is declining. The expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States is strengthening [11]. - Main logic: The supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2158,000 tons, a 3.24% month - on - month decrease. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 29.4823%, a 3.056 - percentage - point month - on - month increase. The national sample enterprise shipments are 262,100 tons, a 6.74% month - on - month increase. The sample enterprise production is 492,000 tons, an 11.56% month - on - month increase. The estimated maintenance volume of sample enterprise equipment is 866,000 tons, a 9.60% month - on - month decrease. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, and it may further increase next week [7]. - **Demand**: The开工 rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.8%, a 0.12 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, unchanged month - on - month, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of modified asphalt is 10.5658%, a 0.02 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, a 5.00 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average. The开工 rate of waterproofing membranes is 33.8%, a 0.20 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 496.91 yuan/ton, a 2.60% month - on - month increase. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1102.9986 yuan/ton, a 1.49% month - on - month increase. Asphalt processing losses are increasing, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking is increasing. With the weakening of crude oil prices, the short - term support is expected to weaken [7]. - **Basis**: On December 2, the spot price in Shandong is 2960 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is 39 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price. This is a bullish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a 3.74% month - on - month decrease. The in - plant inventory is 588,000 tons, a 1.20% month - on - month increase. The port diluted asphalt inventory is 570,000 tons, a 28.75% month - on - month decrease. The social inventory is continuously decreasing, the in - plant inventory is continuously increasing, and the port inventory is continuously decreasing, which is a neutral signal [7]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract closes below the MA20, which is a bearish signal [7]. - **Main positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing, which is a bearish signal [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Futures Market - **Basis trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 to 2025 [17][18]. - **Spread analysis**: - **Main contract spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [22][23]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [25][26]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the historical trends of the asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent crude oil cracking spreads from 2020 to 2025 [28][29][30]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil price ratio trend**: It presents the historical trends of the asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil price ratios from 2020 to 2025 [32][34]. 3.3 Asphalt Spot Market - **Regional market price trends**: It shows the historical trend of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt prices from 2020 to 2025 [35][36]. 3.4 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical trend of asphalt profits from 2019 to 2025 [37][38]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It presents the historical trend of the coking - asphalt profit spread from 2020 to 2025 [40][41][42]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical trend of weekly asphalt shipment volumes from 2020 to 2025 [44][45]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It presents the historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 to 2025 [46][47]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical trends of weekly and monthly asphalt production volumes from 2019 to 2025 [49][50]. - **Marine crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It presents the historical trends of Marine crude oil prices and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 [53][55]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 [56][57]. - **Capacity utilization rate**: It presents the historical trend of weekly asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2021 to 2025 [59][60]. - **Estimated maintenance loss volume**: It shows the historical trend of estimated asphalt maintenance loss volumes from 2018 to 2025 [62][63]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [65][66][67]. - **Social inventory and in - plant inventory**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 [69][70]. - **In - plant inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 [72][73]. - **Import - export situation**: It shows the historical trends of asphalt export, import, and South Korean asphalt import price spreads from 2020 to 2025 [75][76][79]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 [81][82]. - **Apparent consumption**: It presents the historical trend of asphalt apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 [84][85]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment**: It shows the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [87][88][89]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It presents the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025 [91][92][93][94]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rate**: It shows the historical trend of heavy - traffic asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [96][97]. - **Asphalt capacity utilization rate by use**: It presents the historical trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [99][100]. - **Downstream capacity utilization situation**: It shows the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt capacity utilization rates from 2019 to 2025 [102][103][105]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to December 2025, including downstream demand, diluted asphalt port inventory, factory inventory, social inventory, export volume, import volume, and production volume [107][108].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market has both positive and negative factors. Positive factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors are the overall rebound in supply pressure, high and slow - moving inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. - The PVC2601 contract is expected to oscillate in the range of 4551 - 4599 [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Positive factors: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. Negative factors: Overall supply pressure rebound, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and external demand. The main logic is the strong supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [11][12]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data 3.2.1 Supply - In October 2025, PVC production was 2.12812 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.79%. This week, the sample enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.22%, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 percentage points. Calcium carbide - based enterprise production was 355,560 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.83%, and ethylene - based enterprise production was 133,310 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.00%. Supply pressure increased this week. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production is expected to increase slightly [7]. 3.2.2 Cost - The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 880.71 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 3.80%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 464.69 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease in losses of 9.00%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 1,925.95 yuan/ton, remaining flat month - on - month, lower than the historical average [7]. 3.2.3 Basis - On December 2, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 35 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [7]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Factory inventory was 322,640 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.28%. Calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 249,390 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.57%, and ethylene - based factory inventory was 73,250 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. Social inventory was 527,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.22%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.35 days, a month - on - month increase of 0.94% [7]. 3.2.5 Market - MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [7]. 3.2.6 Main Position - The main position is net short, with short positions decreasing [7]. 3.2.7 Expectation - The cost of calcium carbide - based production is weakening, and the cost of ethylene - based production is strengthening, with the overall cost weakening. Supply pressure increased this week, and production is expected to increase next week. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain weak [7]. 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report provides yesterday's PVC market data, including prices, price changes, and inventory data of different types of PVC and related products [15]. 3.4 PVC Futures Market 3.4.1 Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trend of the PVC basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [18]. 3.4.2 Volume and Position - The report shows the trading volume, price trend, and position changes of the main PVC futures contract [21]. 3.4.3 Spread Analysis - The report analyzes the spread of the main PVC futures contract, including the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [24]. 3.5 PVC Fundamental Analysis 3.5.1 Calcium Carbide Method - Related - It includes the price, cost - profit, and production - related data of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [27][30][32][35]. 3.5.2 Supply Trend - It shows the capacity utilization rate, profit, daily production, weekly maintenance volume, and weekly production of PVC production by calcium carbide and ethylene methods [38][40]. 3.5.3 Demand Trend - It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream average operating rate of PVC [42][45]. 3.5.4 Inventory - It presents the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, and social inventory of PVC [56]. 3.5.5 Ethylene Method - Related - It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and related price spreads in the ethylene method [58]. 3.5.6 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC from September 2024 to October 2025, including production, import, export, demand, social inventory, and factory inventory [61].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-3 • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6820（+30）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-11，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLD ...

1、基本面：前期减产煤矿供应虽在逐步恢复，但也有新增部分煤矿因井下原因减产，整体供应仍维持 偏紧状态。随着焦炭首轮降价全面落地，下游焦企利润压缩，原料采购更趋谨慎，线上竞拍成交多延续 小幅下跌，且流拍情况仍存，部分高价资源陆续下调报价，产地煤矿降价范围扩大。整体看市场观望心 态浓厚，炼焦煤价格支撑稍显不足；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1190，基差973.5；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：钢厂利润虽有修复，但亏损依旧，仍有继续压降原燃料成本计划，近期按需采购为主。目前 下游企业采购态度偏谨慎，厂里库存都在低位运行，以刚需采购为主，预计短期焦煤价格或偏弱运行。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 纯碱早报 2025-12-3 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 纯碱： 1、基本面：碱厂产量高位，远兴二期年前预期投产，整体供给预期充裕；下游浮法玻璃、光伏日 熔量整体延续下滑趋势，纯碱厂库处于历史同期高位；偏空 2、基差：河北沙河重质纯碱现货价1160元/吨，SA2601收盘价为1183元/吨，基差为-23元，期货升 水现货；偏空 3、库存：全国纯碱厂内库存158.74万吨，较前一周减少3.47%，库存在5年均值上方运行；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方运行，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：纯碱基本面疲弱，短期预计震荡偏空运行为主。 影响因素总结 利多： 1、设备问题导致企业减量检修，纯碱供应恢复较慢。 利空： 1、23年以来， ...

沪锌期货早报-2025年12月03日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22850，基差+105；中性。 3、库存：12月2日LME锌库存较上日增加350吨至52375吨，12月2日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少1974至63804吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **PTA**: On December 2, 2025, the PTA futures fluctuated and closed higher. The spot market negotiation atmosphere improved, with the spot basis remaining stable. Some polyester factories replenished their stocks. The PTA supply - demand pattern didn't change significantly. It's expected that the futures will fluctuate with the cost side, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - **MEG**: On December 2, 2025, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward. The market negotiation was average. It's expected that there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. The market is expected to adjust at a low level in the short term, with the spot basis weakening. Attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Day's Review - No information provided in the content. 3.2 Daily Tips - **PTA**: The PTA futures closed higher on December 2, 2025. The spot market negotiation improved, and the basis was stable. Some polyester factories replenished stocks. The supply - demand pattern was stable. The futures followed the cost side to fluctuate [5]. - **MEG**: The price of ethylene glycol fluctuated downward on December 2, 2025. The market negotiation was average. There will be a concentrated arrival of foreign goods in early December, and the inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month [6]. 3.3 Today's Focus - **PTA**: A 700,000 - ton PTA device in Taiwan, China has been under maintenance since November 29, expected to last for 4 weeks [9]. - **MEG**: A 400,000 - ton/year MEG device in South China is planned to stop for maintenance next week, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [9]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including PTA production capacity, load, output, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the ethylene glycol supply, demand, inventory, and other data from January 2024 to December 2025, including production capacity utilization, output, import, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - **Price and Spread Data**: It includes the price changes of raw materials such as naphtha and PX, the price and basis changes of PTA and MEG, and the profit data of PTA processing, MEG production, and polyester products from December 1 to December 2, 2025 [12]. 3.5 Inventory Analysis - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days on December 2, 2025, a decrease of 0.03 days compared to the previous period [5]. - **MEG**: The total inventory in East China was 707,000 tons on December 2, 2025, an increase of 72,000 tons compared to the previous period [6]. 3.6 Polyester Upstream and Downstream开工率 - **Upstream**: It includes the historical data of the operating rates of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol from 2021 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Downstream**: It includes the historical data of the capacity utilization rates of polyester and the operating rates of textile enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang from 2021 to 2025 [58]. 3.7 Profit Analysis - **PTA**: The PTA processing fee was 150.7 yuan/ton on December 2, 2025, a decrease of 288.78 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [12]. - **MEG**: The profits of MEG production from different raw materials such as naphtha, ethylene, and methanol all decreased on December 2, 2025 [12]. - **Polyester Products**: The profits of polyester fiber short - fiber, DTY, POY, and FDY showed different degrees of change on December 2, 2025 [12].