1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Likelihood Factors**: Supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits [10] - **Negative Factors**: Overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand [10] - **Main Logic**: Strong overall supply pressure and sluggish domestic demand recovery [11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily View - Likelihood factors include supply resumption, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits; negative factors are overall supply pressure rebound, high and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is strong supply pressure and poor domestic demand recovery [10][11] 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Fundamentals**: Calcium carbide method cost weakens, ethylene method cost strengthens, with overall cost weakening. This week, supply pressure increases. Next week, maintenance is expected to decrease, and production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall, the fundamentals are bearish [7] - **Basis**: On December 1st, the price of East China SG - 5 was 4540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 13 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, showing a neutral situation [7] - **Inventory**: Factory inventory is 322,640 tons, a 2.28% increase month - on - month. Calcium carbide method factory inventory is 249,390 tons, a 3.57% increase; ethylene method factory inventory is 73,250 tons, a 1.87% decrease. Social inventory is 527,900 tons, a 0.22% increase. The in - stock days of production enterprises are 5.35 days, a 0.94% increase [7] - **Market Chart**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closes below MA20, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Main Position**: The main position has a net short position, with short positions decreasing, showing a bearish trend [7] - **Expectation**: Production scheduling is expected to increase. Overall inventory is at a neutral level, and current demand may remain sluggish. It is necessary to continuously monitor macro - policies and export trends. PVC2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4529 - 4577 [7][8] 3.3 PVC Market Overview - The report presents yesterday's PVC market overview, including prices, spreads, inventories, downstream operating rates, and other data [14] 3.4 PVC Futures Market - **Basis Trend**: Displays the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, East China market price, and main contract closing price [17] - **Price and Volume Trend**: Presents the price, trading volume, and position changes of the PVC futures main contract [20] - **Spread Analysis**: Analyzes the spread trends of the PVC futures main contract, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread [23] 3.5 PVC Fundamentals - **Calcium Carbide Method - Related**: Analyzes the prices, costs, profits, operating rates, and inventories of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, and caustic soda in the calcium carbide method [26][29][32][34] - **Supply Trend**: Analyzes the production capacity utilization rate, production volume, maintenance volume, etc. of the calcium carbide method and ethylene method in PVC production [37][39] - **Demand Trend**: Analyzes the trading volume, pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, and downstream operating rates of PVC [41][43][47] - **Inventory**: Analyzes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide method factory inventory, ethylene method factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days of PVC [55] - **Ethylene Method**: Analyzes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, and price spreads in the ethylene method [57] - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: Presents the monthly supply - demand balance data of PVC, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, and import [60]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Views - Gold: The hawkish remarks of the Bank of Japan have raised concerns about global liquidity tightening, and the gold price has been pulled up by the silver price. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks have made the gold price remain strong. However, the domestic sentiment is cautious as the Shanghai gold premium has converged to around - 5.5 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading is hot, and the silver price has continued to rise, hitting a new all - time high. The Shanghai silver premium has expanded to 400 yuan/gram, with strong domestic sentiment. The Fed's rate - cut expectations and the optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks will keep the supply shortage game going, but the actual shortage possibility is limited, so caution is needed when chasing high [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.前日回顾 (Previous Day Review) - Gold: The hawkish remarks of the Bank of Japan led to concerns about global liquidity tightening. The three major US stock indexes and European stock indexes closed down. The US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 7.33 basis points to 4.087%. The US dollar index fell 0.03% to 99.41, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures rose 0.24% to $4265.00 per ounce [4]. - Silver: The supply shortage trading was hot, and the silver price continued to rise. The three major US stock indexes closed up, and European stock indexes closed slightly up. The US Treasury yields rose collectively, with the 10 - year US Treasury yield rising 2.3 basis points to 4.0132%. The US dollar index fell 0.12% to 99.44, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX silver futures rose 2.25% to $58.45 per ounce [5]. 2.每日提示 (Daily Tips) - Gold: The basis is - 5.78, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of gold futures increased by 450 kilograms to 90873 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, and the main long position increased, which is bullish [4]. - Silver: The basis is +1, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is neutral. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 14,820 kilograms to 573,702 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreased, which is bullish [5]. 3.今日关注 (Today's Focus) - 09:00: Fed Chairman Powell's speech - 15:00: The Bank of England releases its financial stability report - Time TBD: The OECD releases the latest economic outlook for its member countries and other major economies - 18:00: Eurozone's preliminary November CPI and October unemployment rate - 23:00: Fed Governor Bowman attends a hearing of the US House Financial Services Committee on the supervision of financial regulatory departments - Next day 06:00: RBA Governor Bullock and Assistant Governor Kent attend a hearing [15] 4.基本面数据 (Fundamental Data) - Gold: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for the gold price to fall. However, the latter two of the three main factors recently (US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut, and Sino - US tariff escalation concerns) have improved significantly, and the support for the gold price has weakened significantly [9]. - Silver: The silver price still mainly follows the gold price. The tariff concerns have a stronger impact on the silver price, and the silver price is prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting the silver price include both bullish and bearish aspects. Bullish factors are global turmoil, shadow Fed's significant influence, geopolitical tensions, tariff concerns, and support from the photovoltaic and technology sectors. Bearish factors are the rising expectation of the end of rate - cuts, the Fed's internal differences, the less - than - expected European fiscal expansion, and the expectation of Russia - Ukraine cease - fire talks [13][14]. 5.持仓数据 (Position Data) - Gold: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai gold on December 1, 2025, the long - position volume was 175,148, an increase of 3,960 or 2.31% compared with November 30; the short - position volume was 61,337, an increase of 1,635 or 2.74%; the net position was 113,811, an increase of 2,325 or 2.09% [31]. - Silver: In the top 20 positions of Shanghai silver on December 1, 2025, the long - position volume was 411,585, an increase of 9,241 or 2.30% compared with November 28; the short - position volume was 314,399, an increase of 7,038 or 2.29%; the net position was 97,186, an increase of 2,203 or 2.32% [33]. - ETF: The gold ETF (SPDR) position has increased in a volatile manner. The silver ETF position has increased significantly and is still higher than the same period in the past two years [35][38]. - Warehouse receipts: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts have increased slightly. The COMEX gold warehouse receipts have continued to decrease but are still at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts have increased slightly and are at the lowest level in the past six years, while the COMEX silver warehouse receipts have continued to decrease [39][40][42].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪锌期货早报-2025年12月02日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85225791 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 指标体系 沪锌: 1、基本面：外媒10月19日消息：世界金属统计局（WBMS）公布最新数据显 示，2025年9月，全球精炼锌产量为119.35万吨,消费量为122.92万吨,供应 短缺3.57万吨.1-9月,全球锌板产量为1036.32万吨,消费量为1073.69万吨, 供应短缺37.37万吨.9月份,全球锌矿产量为116.33万吨.1-9月,全球锌矿产 量为996.47万吨；偏多。 2、基差：现货22650，基差+60；中性。 3、库存：12月1日LME锌库存较上日增加275吨至52025吨，12月1日上期所锌 库存仓单较上日减少1839至65778吨；中性。 4、盘面：昨日沪锌震荡上涨走势，收20日均线之 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The copper market has a neutral fundamental situation, with supply - side disruptions, some smelting enterprises reducing production, and relaxed scrap copper policies. The November China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement [2]. - The basis shows a neutral situation with a spot price of 89,150 and a basis of - 130, indicating a discount to futures [2]. - Copper inventory on December 1st increased by 0 to 159,425 tons, and the SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12,673 tons from the previous week to 97,930 tons, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The main positions are net short, changing from long to short, showing a bearish trend [2]. - With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining, such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine fermenting, copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. - The global policy is loose while the trade war is escalating [3]. - The copper market will have a slight surplus in 2024 and a tight balance in 2025 [19]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side disturbances, smelting production cuts, relaxed scrap copper policies, and marginal improvement in PMI [2]. - **Basis**: Spot price of 89,150, basis of - 130 (discount to futures) [2]. - **Inventory**: December 1st inventory increase of 0 to 159,425 tons, SHFE inventory decrease of 12,673 tons to 97,930 tons [2]. - **Disk**: Closing price above 20 - day moving average, 20 - day moving average upward [2]. - **Main Positions**: Net short, changing from long to short [2]. - **Expectation**: High - level fluctuation of copper prices due to inventory and geopolitical factors [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - **利多**: Not mentioned in the report. - **利空**: Not mentioned in the report. - **Logic**: Global policy relaxation and trade - war escalation [3]. Inventory - **Exchange Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory decreased by 12,673 tons from the previous week to 97,930 tons on December 1st, and the total inventory increased by 0 to 159,425 tons [2]. - **Bonded - Area Inventory**: The bonded - area inventory has rebounded from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - The processing fee has declined [15]. Supply - Demand Balance - **Overall Situation**: Slight surplus in 2024 and tight balance in 2025 [19]. - **China's Annual Supply - Demand Balance**: In 2024, China's copper production was 12.06 million tons, imports were 3.73 million tons, exports were 0.46 million tons, apparent consumption was 15.34 million tons, actual consumption was 15.23 million tons, and there was a surplus of 0.11 million tons [21].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, with high supply, declining terminal demand, and high inventory. The industry's supply - demand mismatch has not been effectively improved, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant production is at a high level. The second - phase of Yuangxing is expected to be put into production before the end of the year, and the overall supply is expected to be abundant. The daily melting volume of downstream float glass and photovoltaic glass has been declining, and the inventory of soda ash plants is at a historically high level, which is bearish [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1145 yuan/ton, and the closing price of SA2601 is 1176 yuan/ton. The basis is - 31 yuan, with futures at a premium to the spot, which is bearish [2] - **Inventory**: The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average, which is bearish [2][33] - **Disk**: The price is running below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, which is bearish [2] - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2] - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [2] 3.2 Influencing Factors Summary - **Positive Factors**: Equipment problems have led to production reduction and maintenance of enterprises, and the recovery of soda ash supply is slow [3] - **Negative Factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly. There are still large production - launch plans this year, and the industry's output is at a historically high level. The downstream photovoltaic glass of heavy - quality soda ash has reduced production, and the demand for soda ash has weakened [4] 3.3 Main Logic and Risk Points - **Main Logic**: The supply of soda ash is at a high level, the terminal demand is declining, the inventory is at a high level in the same period, and the supply - demand mismatch pattern in the industry has not been effectively improved [5] 3.4 Soda Ash Futures Market | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Heavy - quality Soda Ash: Shahe Low - end Price (yuan/ton) | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Previous Value | 1177 | 1145 | - 32 | | Current Value | 1176 | 1145 | - 31 | | Change Rate | - 0.08% | 0.00% | - 3.13% | [6] 3.5 Soda Ash Spot Market - **Market Price**: The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1145 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11] - **Production Profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash by North China ammonia - soda process is - 118.50 yuan/ton, and that by East China co - production process is - 220 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash is at a historical low [14] - **Operating Rate and Output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 80.08%. The weekly output of soda ash is 69.82 tons, including 38.31 tons of heavy - quality soda ash, and the output is at a historical high [17][19] - **Production Capacity Changes**: In 2023, 640 tons of new production capacity were added; in 2024, 180 tons were added; in 2025, the planned new production capacity is 750 tons, with actual production of 100 tons [20] 3.6 Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production Ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 108.16% [23] - **Downstream Demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 15.72 tons, with an operating rate of 74.85% [26] 3.7 Fundamental Analysis - Inventory - The national inventory of soda ash in plants is 158.74 tons, a decrease of 3.47% from the previous week, and the inventory is above the 5 - year average [33] 3.8 Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Production Capacity (tons) | Output (tons) | Operating Rate | Import (tons) | Export (tons) | Net Import (tons) | Apparent Supply (tons) | Total Demand (tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (tons) | Production Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3087 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [34]

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 3 基本面数据 多空因素及主要风险点 4 基差 天胶： 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 天胶早报- 2025年12月2日 1、基本面：供应开始增加，现货偏强，国内库存开始减少，轮胎开工率高位 中性 2、基差：现货14800，基差-450 偏空 3、库存：上期所库存周环比增加，同比减少；青岛地区库存周环比增加，同比增加 中性 4、盘面：20日线走平，价格20日线上运行 偏多 5、主力持仓：主力净空，空减 偏空 6、预期：市场下方有支撑，逢低做多 多空因素及主要风险点 • 利多 • 1、下游消费偏高 • 2、现货价格抗跌 • 3、国内反内卷 • 利空 • 1、供应增加 • 2、国内经济指标偏空 • 3、贸易摩擦 • 风险点 • 世界经济衰退 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report The cotton market has a neutral fundamental situation, with a bullish basis, a bearish inventory outlook, a bullish trend on the trading chart, and a bearish bias in the main positions. Short - term negative factors are exhausted, and the futures are expected to fluctuate upward in the short - term. The trading focus will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No information provided in the report. 2. Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: According to various reports, the 2025/26 cotton production is estimated to be 2540 - 2614.5 million tons, and consumption is 2500 - 2588.3 million tons. In October, textile and clothing exports were 222.62 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 12.63%. China's cotton imports in October were 9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.6%, and cotton yarn imports were 14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7%. The rural ministry estimates 2025/26 production at 660 million tons, imports at 140 million tons, consumption at 740 million tons, and ending inventory at 845 million tons [5]. - **Basis**: The national average price of spot 3128b cotton is 14936, with a basis of 1211 (for the 05 contract), indicating a premium over futures [5]. - **Inventory**: The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture estimates the ending inventory for the 2025/26 period in November to be 845 million tons, which is a bearish factor [5]. - **Trading Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bullish trend [5]. - **Main Positions**: The positions are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5]. - **Expectations**: The tariff on exports to the US is reduced by 10%. Domestic new cotton picking is basically over, and downstream enterprises will replenish stocks at the end of the year. Short - term negative factors are exhausted. With cost support and the peak inventory passed, there are expectations for a recovery in later consumption. The futures will fluctuate upward in the short - term, and trading will shift from the 01 contract to the 05 contract as the 01 contract approaches delivery [5]. 3. Today's Focus No information provided in the report. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, global production is estimated to be 2614.5 million tons, consumption is 2588.3 million tons, and ending inventory is 1653.2 million tons. Different countries have different trends in production, consumption, imports, and exports [12][13]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, production is 2539.956 million tons, consumption is 2500.778 million tons, and ending inventory is 1622.785 million tons [15]. - **China Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 period, production is estimated to be 660 million tons, imports are 140 million tons, consumption is 740 million tons, and ending inventory is 845 million tons [16]. 5. Position Data The main positions in cotton futures are bearish, with net short positions decreasing, and the main trend is bearish [5].

大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6790（+20）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-13，升贴水比例-0.2%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDPE主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线上，中性； • 5. 主力持仓：LL ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Sugar Morning Report - December 2, 2025 - Report Author: Wang Mingwei from Dayue Futures Investment Consulting Department - Report Date: December 2, 2025 Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The sugar market in the 2025/26 season is expected to be in a state of supply surplus according to multiple institutions, which is a bearish factor [4][9]. - The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, and the market will mainly move sideways at a low level [5][9]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided in the available text. 2. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a supply surplus in the 2025/26 global sugar market. For example, ISO expects a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX expects 370 million tons, and Czarnikow raises its forecast to 740 million tons. As of August 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 2024/25 season in China was 1116.21 million tons, and the cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons with a sales rate of 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and imported 11.55 million tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5580 yuan/ton, and the basis for the SR2605 contract is 247 yuan/ton, indicating a premium over the futures price, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 2024/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is increasing, and the main trend is bearish [6]. - **Expected Trend**: The SR2601 contract is approaching delivery, and trading is recommended to shift to the SR2605 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be limited, and the market will mainly move sideways at a low level [5][9]. 3. Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided in the available text. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the 2025/26 global sugar supply and demand balance. ISO expects a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX expects 277 million tons, Czarnikow expects 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics expects 420 million tons [34]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance**: The sugar production in China is expected to increase from 996 million tons in 2024/25 to 1170 million tons in 2025/26. Consumption is expected to be around 1570 million tons, and imports are expected to be 500 million tons [36]. - **Import Cost**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents/pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan/ton. The continuous decline in international sugar prices has led to considerable import profits [41]. 5. Position Data No content related to position data is provided in the available text.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PTA, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, the bid - ask was stalemate, and the futures price followed the cost side to fluctuate upward. The supply - demand pattern changed little, and attention should be paid to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. - For MEG, there will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December, and the visible inventory will remain high. The supply - demand pattern has been repaired to a basic balance this month. It is expected that the MEG market will undergo wide - range adjustments in the short term, and attention should be paid to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost side, and the upper resistance level should be monitored when the price rebounds [9]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PTA Daily View - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures fluctuated upward, the spot market negotiation atmosphere was light, and the spot basis was stalemate, mainly with traders' negotiations. The price negotiation range of the main port goods in December was around 4670 - 4740, and the mainstream spot basis today was 01 - 33 [5]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4705, the 01 contract basis was - 57, and the futures price was at a premium, showing a neutral situation [5]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 3.78 days, a decrease of 0.03 days compared with the previous period, which was a bullish factor [5]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was upward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, which was bullish [5]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions increased, which was bullish [5]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to the cost side and downstream polyester production and sales [5]. 3.2 MEG Daily View - **Fundamentals**: On Monday, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated strongly, and the market negotiation was fair. The intraday futures price first rose and then fell slightly, and the buying sentiment improved. The overseas price of ethylene glycol rebounded slightly [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 3897, the 01 contract basis was 15, and the futures price was at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China was 70.7 tons, an increase of 7.2 tons compared with the previous period, which was a bearish factor [7]. - **Market trend**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, which was bearish [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions increased, which was bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: Pay attention to temporary device changes and annual contract negotiations [6]. 3.3 Influencing Factors Summary - **Bullish factors**: The 2.5 - million - ton PTA Honggang device stopped at the beginning of the week, and the 2.2 - million - ton Yisheng device is gradually shutting down. The Zhengdaokai of MEG implemented maintenance this week, and the domestic ethylene glycol load continued to decline slightly to below 71%. There is still room for the domestic load to decline [8]. - **Bearish factors**: There will be a concentrated arrival of Saudi and Canadian goods in early December for MEG, and the visible inventory will remain high [9]. 3.4 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the PTA production capacity, output, supply, demand, inventory, and supply - demand gap showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the production capacity increased from 8062 to 8812, and the output also changed accordingly, with an increase from 591 in January to 637 in December [10]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2024 to 2025, the production, import, supply, demand, port inventory, and supply - demand gap of ethylene glycol also showed certain fluctuations. For example, in 2024, the total supply increased from 209 in January to 237 in December [11]. 3.6 Price - related Charts - There are multiple price - related charts, including PTA and MEG price trends, basis, inter - month spreads, and spot spreads, which reflect the price changes of PTA, MEG, and related products from 2021 to 2025 [13][23][30]. 3.7 Inventory - related Charts - There are inventory - related charts for PTA, MEG, polyester, and polyester fibers, showing the inventory changes of these products from 2021 to 2025 [40][45]. 3.8 Production - related Charts - There are production - related charts for polyester upstream and downstream, including the start - up rates of PTA, paraxylene, ethylene glycol, and polyester, which reflect the production situation from 2021 to 2025 [52][56]. 3.9 Profit - related Charts - There are profit - related charts for PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, showing the profit trends of these products from 2022 to 2025 [58][61][63].