重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-16甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：供需逻辑不同预计本周国内甲醇呈现区域性走势，整体或呈北强南弱走势。内地方面，产区烯烃需求明显 增量致使区域内甲醇供应紧张，供需紧平衡的利好驱动下，本周产区预计走高概率较大。销区方面，下游有节前备货需 求，以及运费仍有上涨空间，贸易商有惜售情绪，共同支撑下游到货价格走高。但套利空间打开后，港口货源可倒流内 地，制约销区甲醇价格上涨幅度。港口方面，伊朗10月缺气检修，且伊朗busher一套年产165万吨甲醇装置上周临时停 车，后续进口货源逐步减少，远月强预期；同时港口主力烯烃装置近期重启叠加十一假期前补库，需求跟进放量。但同 时港口高库存现实下，制约港口现货行情形成压制，制约上涨空间；中性 2、 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-16原油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 原油2510： 1.基本面：贝森特表示，除非欧洲国家率先对中国和印度征收高额关税，否则特朗普政府不会对中国 商品加征新关税来阻止中国购买俄罗斯石油；美国和中国官员周一表示，双方已就短视频应用TikTok转 为由美国控制所有权达成一项框架协议，美国财政部长贝森特表示，原定于9月17日的最后期限可能会 延长90天，以便完成交易，但拒绝透露具体细节；乌克兰上周五对俄罗斯普里莫尔斯克港发动无人机 袭击，目前该波罗的海港口已恢复运营，至少有两艘油轮已在该港完成装货作业；中性 2.基差：9月15日，阿曼原油现货价为70.95元/桶， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **豆粕观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待中美谈判结果和美国大豆产区收割天气指引；国内豆粕震荡回落，受菜粕带动、需求支撑和技术性整理影响，短期或回归震荡格局；美国大豆产区天气有变数支撑美豆底部，但南美大豆丰产和美国种植天气良好压制反弹，国内采购巴西大豆到港增多，豆粕M2601预计在3000至3060区间震荡 [8] - **大豆观点**：美豆震荡收涨，等待相关指引；国内大豆窄幅震荡，受美豆带动和技术性整理影响，进口大豆到港高和新季国产大豆增产预期压制盘面，短期受中美关税谈判和进口大豆到港旺季交互影响，豆一A2511预计在3900至4000区间震荡 [10] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the given content 3.2 Recent News - 中美关税谈判进展短期利多美豆，美盘震荡回升，未来等待美豆生长、收割及进口大豆到港和中美关税谈判后续指引 - 国内进口大豆到港量8月维持高位，油厂豆粕库存进入偏高位，豆粕短期震荡偏强，受8月美农报利多数据和菜粕上涨影响 - 国内生猪养殖利润减少使生猪补栏预期不高，但豆粕需求近期回升支撑价格，加上中美贸易谈判不确定性，豆粕回归区间震荡格局 - 国内油厂豆粕库存继续回升，豆粕短期偏强震荡，等待南美大豆产量明确和中美关税战后续指引 [12] 3.3 Long and Short Concerns - **豆粕利多因素**：进口大豆到港通关缓慢；国内油厂豆粕库存尚处低位；美国大豆产区天气仍有变数 [13] - **豆粕利空因素**：国内进口大豆到港总量9月维持高位；巴西大豆收割结束，南美大豆丰产预期持续 [13] - **大豆利多因素**：进口大豆成本支撑国内大豆盘面底部；国产大豆需求回升预期支撑国内大豆价格预期 [14] - **大豆利空因素**：巴西大豆丰产预期持续，中国增加采购巴西大豆；新季国产大豆增产压制豆类价格预期 [14] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **豆粕基差**：现货2950（华东），基差 -92，贴水期货，偏空 [8] - **豆粕库存**：油厂豆粕库存113.62万吨，上周107.88万吨，环比增加5.32%，去年同期134.88万吨，同比减少15.76%，偏多 [8] - **大豆库存**：油厂大豆库存731.7万吨，上周682.53万吨，环比增加5%，去年同期689.18万吨，同比增加6.17%，偏空 [10] - **盘面情况**：豆粕和大豆价格均在20日均线下方且方向向下，偏空 [8][10] - **主力持仓**：豆粕主力多单减少，资金流入，偏多；大豆主力多单增加，资金流入，偏多 [8][10] 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the given content 3.6 Additional Information - 豆粕期货区间震荡，现货相对平稳，现货贴水小幅波动 [22] - 油厂大豆入榨量维持高位，7月豆粕产量同比增加 [24][50] - 国内中下游采购低位回升，提货量维持高位 [27] - 豆菜粕现货价差小幅波动，2601合约豆菜粕价差低位震荡 [29] - 美豆周度出口检验环比回落，同比回升 [43] - 进口大豆到港量9月高位回落，同比整体有所增长 [45] - 油厂大豆库存创出新高，豆粕库存继续增加 [46] - 油厂未执行合同低位回升，长假备货需求增多 [48] - 巴西豆进口成本跟随美豆回升，盘面利润小幅波动 [53] - 生猪存栏保持升势，母猪存栏同比持平，环比小幅回落 [55] - 生猪价格近期回归震荡，仔猪价格维持弱势 [57] - 国内大猪比例回升，生猪二次育肥成本小幅回升 [59] - 国内生猪养殖利润近期有所改善 [61]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为43.5%，环比增加.899个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.39%，环比减少4.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.48%，环比减少0.13个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开工率为70.77%，环比持平，高于历史平均水平；下游糊树脂开 工率为74.07%，环比增加.809个百分点，高于历史平均水平；船运费用看涨；国内PVC出口价格价格占 优；当前需求或持续低迷。 1、基本面: 偏空。 成本端来看，电石法利润为-420.96元/吨，亏损环比增加5.40%，低于历史平均水平；乙烯法利润为- 670.97元/吨，亏损环比增加6.80%，低于历史 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates within the range of 2460 - 2520. The spot demand for rapeseed meal remains in the peak season in the short term, and the low inventory supports the market. However, after the National Day, the demand will gradually enter the off - season, and there are still uncertainties in the Sino - Canadian trade negotiations. The market is affected by news and oscillates downward in the short term. It is expected to enter a slightly stronger oscillating pattern in the short term, and the follow - up development should be monitored [9]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates within 2460 - 2520. It is affected by news and oscillates downward in the short term, and is expected to enter a slightly stronger oscillating pattern [9]. 2. Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the peak season, and the listing of domestic rapeseed has improved the expectation of tight supply in the spot market. The demand side maintains a good expectation. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports has been established, and a 75.8% import deposit has been imposed. The final result is still variable. Global rapeseed production has increased this year, mainly due to higher - than - expected production in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict is ongoing, and there is still a possibility of an increase in global geopolitical conflicts, which still supports commodities [11]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Concerns - Bullish factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the addition of import deposits; low inventory pressure on oil mills' rapeseed meal. Bearish factors: The concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed; There is still a small probability of reconciliation in the final result of China's anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the Canadian rapeseed tariff war [12]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Trading Data**: From September 5th to September 15th, the average trading price of soybean meal fluctuated between 3040 - 3065 yuan/ton, and the trading volume fluctuated between 4.9 - 39.05 million tons. The average trading price of rapeseed meal was mainly 2600 yuan/ton, and the trading volume was mostly 0, with a maximum of 0.23 million tons. The average price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated between 434 - 465 yuan/ton [13]. - **Price Data**: From September 5th to September 15th, the price of rapeseed meal futures' main contract 2601 fluctuated between 2504 - 2567 yuan/ton, the price of the far - month contract 2605 fluctuated between 2392 - 2420 yuan/ton, and the spot price in Fujian fluctuated between 2580 - 2620 yuan/ton [15]. - **Warehouse Receipt Data**: From September 3rd to September 15th, the rapeseed meal warehouse receipts fluctuated, with a maximum of 11343 and a minimum of 4831 [17]. 5. Position Data - The main short positions have decreased, and the funds have flowed out [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-16燃料油早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油： 1、基本面：贸易消息人士称，尽管9月新加坡接收来自西方的套利货量将环比减少约30万吨，但9月装船的常规 出口招标将导致市场在10月前继续保持充足供应；与此同时，亚洲高硫燃料油市场可能继续受到地区原料需求 和中东夏季发电需求最后阶段的支撑。但贸易商担忧，不断增长的供应将在未来几周对市场基本面构成压力； 中性 2、基差：新加坡高硫燃料油384.6美元/吨，基差为26元/吨，新加坡低硫燃料油为458.5美元/吨，基差为-23元/ 吨，现货平水期货；中性 3、库存：新加坡燃料油9月10日当周库存为2303.9万桶，减 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side of lithium carbonate showed that last week's production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. The demand - side indicated that the inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises increased by 0.72% week - on - week, while that of ternary material sample enterprises decreased by 0.65% week - on - week. - In terms of cost, the cost of purchased spodumene concentrate increased by 1.85% day - on - day, with a production loss of - 3,379 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite decreased by 0.48% day - on - day, with a production loss of - 7,008 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation. - Overall, due to the mismatch between production capacity and demand, resulting in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, the downward trend of the lithium carbonate market is difficult to change. [8][9][12] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Views - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase. The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease [8]. - **Cost**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate was 74,770 yuan/ton, a 1.85% day - on - day increase, with a production loss of - 3,379 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lepidolite was 76,422 yuan/ton, a 0.48% day - on - day decrease, with a production loss of - 7,008 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end was generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end was 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - **Fundamentals and Other Indicators**: The fundamentals are neutral. On September 15, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was - 230 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The smelter inventory was 36,213 tons, an 8.26% week - on - week decrease, lower than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 58,279 tons, a 5.56% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the overall inventory was 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The disk is bearish, and the net short position of the main contract increased [9]. - **Expectations**: In August 2025, the production of lithium carbonate was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% month - on - month increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% month - on - month increase. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [9]. 2. Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Futures Closing Price and Basis**: The futures closing prices of various contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 1.76% to 2.27%. The basis of various contracts showed a significant decrease, with decreases ranging from 104.90% to 205.48%. The number of registered warrants increased by 0.88% [15]. - **Upstream Prices**: The price of spodumene (6%) increased by 0.71%, while the prices of lepidolite concentrate, anhydrous iron phosphate, lithium hexafluorophosphate, and various lithium salts remained unchanged [15]. - **Positive and Negative Factors**: Positive factors include manufacturers' production suspension and reduction plans, a month - on - month decrease in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile, and a decrease in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply of the ore and salt - lake ends with limited decline, and the insufficient willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3. Supply - Side Data - **Lithium Ore**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium ore showed different trends. The monthly production of lithium ore increased, and the monthly import volume of lithium concentrate increased significantly. The supply of lithium ore from different sources, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and salt - lake, also showed different changes [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of lithium carbonate production from different sources, such as spodumene, lepidolite, salt - lake, and recycling materials, showed different trends. The monthly production and import volume of lithium carbonate also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [29][36]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate and monthly operating rate of lithium hydroxide production showed different trends. The monthly production, import, and export volume of lithium hydroxide also changed. The supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [39][42]. 4. Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - **Cost and Profit of Purchased Spodumene and Lepidolite Concentrates**: The cost and profit of purchased spodumene and lepidolite concentrates showed different trends over time. The production cost and profit of lithium carbonate from different raw materials, such as spodumene, lepidolite, and recycling materials, also varied [45]. - **Import Profit of Lithium Carbonate and Other Profits**: The import profit of lithium carbonate, the profit of purifying industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of carbonizing lithium hydroxide into lithium carbonate, and other profits showed different trends over time [45][47]. 5. Inventory - **Lithium Carbonate Inventory**: The weekly and monthly inventory of lithium carbonate from different sources, such as smelters, downstream, and others, showed different trends. The overall inventory of lithium carbonate was at a relatively high level [52]. - **Lithium Hydroxide Inventory**: The monthly inventory of lithium hydroxide from different sources, such as smelters and downstream, also showed different trends [52]. 6. Demand - Side Data - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, and export volume of lithium batteries showed different trends over time. The demand for lithium batteries from different applications, such as power and energy storage, also changed [56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, and production of ternary precursors showed different trends over time. The supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed a certain degree of imbalance in different months [61][64]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, production, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends over time [67][69]. - **Iron Phosphate/Iron Phosphate Lithium**: The price, cost, profit, production, export volume, and inventory of iron phosphate and iron phosphate lithium showed different trends over time [71][74]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales, export volume, and sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles showed different trends over time. The zero - batch ratio and inventory index of new energy vehicles also changed [79][83].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 1、基本面：昨日PTA期货区间震荡，现货市场商谈氛围尚可，现货基差走弱，贸易商商谈为主，少量聚酯工厂补货。9月货主流 在01贴水80成交，个别略高在01贴水75~78，略低在01贴水85，价格商谈区间在4590~4610附近。10月中上在01-60~65有成交。9 月下仓单在09-55有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-80。中性 5、主力持仓：净空 空减 偏空 6、预期：近期PTA供应回归，叠加个别主流供应商出货，现货市场流通性尚可，且市场供需预期偏弱，现货基差逐步走低，价 格上，PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡为主，关注聚酯上下游装置变动及终端需求。 2 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The fundamentals of copper are neutral, with smelting enterprises reducing production and the scrap copper policy being loosened. In August, the manufacturing PMI rose to 49.4%, showing improved business sentiment. The basis is neutral, with the spot price at 80960 and a basis of 20, indicating a premium over the futures. Inventory data presents a mixed picture, with copper inventories decreasing by 1325 to 152625 tons on September 15 and SHFE copper inventories increasing by 12203 tons to 94054 tons compared to last week. The market is biased towards the long side, as the closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, which is trending upwards, and the net long position of the main players is increasing. Given the inventory increase and geopolitical disturbances, and awaiting the consumption guidance in the peak season of September, the copper price is expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend as the current long - short contradictions are not prominent [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Daily View - Fundamentals are neutral due to smelting production cuts and scrap copper policy changes, along with an improved manufacturing PMI in August [2]. - The basis is neutral with a spot premium over the futures [2]. - Inventory data shows a mixed situation, with a daily decrease and a weekly increase [2]. - The market is bullish based on the price - moving average relationship and the main players' net long position [2]. - Copper prices are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, pending September's peak - season consumption data [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and trade - war escalation, but specific details of利多 and利空 are not elaborated [3]. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, it is expected to be in a tight balance [21]. - The Chinese annual supply - demand balance table shows different supply - demand situations from 2018 to 2024, with varying production, import, export, and consumption figures [23]. Other Information - The source of data is Wind [10][14] - The SHFE warehouse receipt inventory and LME inventory are involved in the inventory section, and the bonded - area inventory is rising from a low level [15] - The processing fee is decreasing [17] - CFTC - related content is mentioned, but no details are provided [19]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The glass market has weak fundamentals, with supply declining to a relatively low level compared to the same period, but terminal demand remaining sluggish and inventory rebounding. It is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the short term [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract increased from 1180 yuan/ton to 1207 yuan/ton, a rise of 2.29%. The spot price of Shahe Safety large - board glass remained unchanged at 1072 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 108 yuan/ton to - 135 yuan/ton, a change of 25.00% [6]. 3.2 Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass large - board in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1072 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [11]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - **Cost Side**: The report mentions glass production profit but does not provide specific data [12][16]. - **Supply Side**: The number of operating national float glass production lines is 225, with an operating rate of 76.01%, at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting capacity of national float glass is 160,200 tons, at the lowest level in the same period in history and showing signs of stabilization and recovery [22][24]. - **Demand Side**: In June 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.634 million tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly digesting the original glass inventory [28][4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 61.583 million weight boxes, a decrease of 2.33% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the five - year average [42]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Table**: The report provides the annual supply - demand balance table of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, showing changes in production, consumption, and other indicators over the years [43]. 3.4 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, there is an expectation of capacity clearance in the float glass industry [3]. - **Negative Factors**: The real - estate terminal demand is weak, the capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and the "anti - involution" market sentiment has subsided [4]. 3.5 Main Logic The supply of glass has declined to a relatively low level in the same period, but the terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has rebounded. It is expected that the glass market will mainly show a weak and volatile trend [5].