交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年12月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年10月PVC产量为212.812万吨，环比增加4.79%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为80.22%，环比增加0.02个百分点；电石法企业产量35.556万吨，环比增加2.83%,乙烯法企业产 量13.331万吨，环比减少1.00%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 。 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为49.61%，环比增加.420个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为36.09%，环比减少0.20个百分点，高于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为38.8%，环比减少1.40个百 每日观点 1、基本面: 偏空。 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 铁矿石早报（2025-12-1） 每日观点 铁矿石： 1、基本面：钢厂铁水产量开始减少，总体供需宽松，港口库存累库，终端需求偏弱；偏空 2、基差：日照港PB粉现货折合盘面价837，基差43；日照港巴混现货折合盘面价852，基差58，现货升水期 货；偏多 3、库存：港口库存15901.22万吨，环比增加，同比增加；偏空 4、盘面：价格在20日线上方,20日线向上；偏多 5、主力持仓：铁矿主力持仓净多，多减；偏多 6、预期：国内需求降低，港口累库，震荡偏空思路 利多： 利空： 1.铁水产量保持高位。 2.港口库存减少。 3.进口亏损 4.下游钢材价格上涨，高价原料承受能力强 铁矿石期现基差 1. 后期发货量增加。 2. 终端需求依旧弱势。 铁矿石港口 ...

CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年12月1日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 1、基本面：周五，下周现货在01-35~40附近有成交，价格商谈区间在4580~4660附近。12月中在01-35~40附近有成交，12月下 在01-35~40附近有成交。下周仓单在01-35附近有成交。今日主流现货基差在01-38。中性 2、基差：现货4635，01合约基差-21，盘面升水 中性 3、库存：PTA工厂库存3.78天，环比减少0.03天 偏多 4、盘面：20日均线向上，收盘价收于20日均线之下 偏空 5、主力持仓：净多 多增 偏多 6、预期：近期伴随PTA供应格局预期改善、聚酯负荷坚挺且印度BIS取消提振P ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests holding long positions in natural rubber futures, maintaining a bullish view [1][2][7] 2) Core Viewpoints - The natural rubber market is in a volatile upward trend this week, reaching the upper limit of the range. The technical form has improved, but the volatile pattern remains. The fundamentals are bullish, but the market has a pessimistic outlook on future demand, making the price movement difficult. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view and focus on the inventory situation in Qingdao [3][6][7] 3) Summary by Directory Futures Market Review - RU2601 opened at 15,270, reached a high of 15,525, a low of 14,980, and closed at 15,410, up 1.12%. NR2601 opened at 12,250, reached a high of 12,400, a low of 11,995, and closed at 12,275, down 0.08%. BR2601 opened at 10,400, reached a high of 10,470, a low of 10,180, and closed at 10,415, up 0.29%. The natural rubber market oscillated upward this week, reaching the upper limit of the range, with an improved technical form but still in a volatile pattern [3] Spot Market Review - The price of 2023 state - owned whole latex in Shanghai and Yunnan, including 9% tax, is 15,000 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton from last week. The price of smoked sheet rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is 2,120 US dollars/ton, up 20 US dollars/ton from last week. The price of BR9000 in Shanghai is 10,650 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton from last week [4] Inventory Review - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased this week. The subtotal inventory increased by 7,207 tons to 85,582 tons, and the futures inventory increased by 1,800 tons to 41,400 tons. The inventory in Qingdao increased week - on - week and year - on - year, which will put pressure on price increases [5] Market Structure - The basis strengthened this week because the spot price increased more [5] Forecast and Operation Strategy - The natural rubber market oscillated upward this week, reaching the upper limit of the range. The raw material prices in Thailand showed mixed trends this week. The tire enterprise operating rates were also mixed, with the all - steel tire rate rising and the semi - steel tire rate falling. The semi - steel tire inventory decreased, and the all - steel tire inventory remained unchanged. The natural rubber market is in a volatile pattern, with bullish fundamentals. It is recommended to maintain a bullish view and focus on the inventory in Qingdao [6][7]

每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：前期减产煤矿供应虽在逐步恢复，但也有新增部分减产、停产煤矿，供应仍稍显紧张。受 焦炭首轮提降影响，市场情绪继续走弱，下游钢厂利润较低，对原料高位价格抵触心理增强，而贸易商 多数观望，拿货积极性不佳，影响煤矿新增订单减少；中性 2、基差：现货市场价1315，基差248；现货升水期货；偏多 3、库存：钢厂库存801万吨，港口库存295万吨，独立焦企库存861万吨，总样本库存1957万吨，较上 周减少21万吨；偏多 4、盘面：20日线向下，价格在20日线下方；偏空 5、主力持仓：焦煤主力净空，空增；偏空 6、预期：传统淡季需求仍旧疲软，加上钢价下跌，钢厂亏损再度加剧，铁水产量进一步下滑，市场情 绪进一步降温，终端对原料煤采购更加谨慎，补库节奏放缓，焦煤需求继续承压，预计短期焦煤价格或 偏弱运行。 焦煤 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-12-1） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Views For Shanghai Nickel - Last week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Some production capacities have reduced recently, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore is firm, and ocean freight rates remain unchanged. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining stable and a small portion still declining. The cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventory remains at a high level, and the oversupply situation persists. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The basis is positive, but inventory, the market trend, and the main positions all suggest a bearish outlook. The Shanghai Nickel 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and for the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to sell on rebounds [2]. For Stainless Steel - The spot price of stainless steel has slightly decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are unchanged, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling with most remaining stable, so the cost line remains stable. Stainless steel inventory has increased. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, and the market trend is bearish. The Stainless Steel 2601 contract is expected to be under pressure below the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Nickel Futures**: On November 28, the Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 117,010, up 110 from the previous day; the LME nickel closed at 14,820, down 20. Among spot nickel, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 119,500, up 500; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 121,900, up 600; 1 imported nickel was 117,550, up 500; and nickel beans were 119,600, up 500 [10]. - **Stainless Steel Futures**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12,355 on November 28, down 55 from the previous day. Among spot stainless steel, the average price of cold - rolled 304*2B in different regions showed little change, with some prices remaining stable and a small decline in Foshan [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of November 28, the LME nickel inventory was 254,760 tons, a decrease of 690 tons; the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts were 33,309 tons, a decrease of 239 tons. The total inventory was 288,069 tons, a decrease of 929 tons [13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. The inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 63,119 tons, a decrease of 354 tons [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - The price of laterite nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton on November 28. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 883 yuan per nickel point, down 1 yuan, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 12,473 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel was 12,768 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel iron and pure nickel was 16,248 yuan [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 118,722 yuan per ton [25].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoint - The short - term trend of Shanghai zinc ZN2601 is expected to be an oscillating rebound. The previous trading day saw an oscillating rebound in Shanghai zinc, with shrinking trading volume and small reductions in both long and short positions. Technically, the price is near the long - term moving average with strong support, short - term indicator KDJ is rising in the weak area, and the trend indicator shows that both long and short forces are rising and becoming intertwined [2][19] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Information - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, resulting in a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc sheet production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons, and from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons [2] 2. Basis - The spot price is 22,460, and the basis is +35, indicating a neutral situation [2] 3. Inventory - On November 28, LME zinc inventory increased by 950 tons to 51,750 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 1,501 tons to 67,617 tons [2] 4. Futures Market Quotes - On November 28, the zinc futures of different delivery months showed various price changes. For example, for the 2512 delivery month, the previous settlement price was 22,440, the opening price was 22,320, the highest price was 22,420, the lowest price was 22,280, and the closing price was 22,385 [3] 5. Spot Market Quotes - On November 28, the price of domestic zinc concentrate had different levels. The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 2,300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported zinc concentrate comprehensive TC was 70 US dollars/dry ton. The price of 0 zinc in different regions also varied, such as 22,460 yuan/ton in Shanghai, 22,300 yuan/ton in Guangdong, 22,370 yuan/ton in Tianjin, and 22,530 yuan/ton in Zhejiang [4] 6. Zinc Ingot Inventory Statistics - From November 17 to November 27, the total inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets decreased from 162,400 tons to 140,400 tons. Compared with November 20, it decreased by 19,400 tons, and compared with November 24, it decreased by 11,200 tons [5] 7. Zinc Warrant Report - On November 28, the total zinc warrants of the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 67,617 tons, a decrease of 1,501 tons. Different regions had different warrant changes, such as a decrease of 872 tons in Guangdong and a decrease of 224 tons in Tianjin [6] 8. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On November 28, the LME zinc inventory had different changes in different locations, with a total increase of 950 tons to 51,750 tons [7] 9. Zinc Concentrate Price - On November 28, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in major domestic cities was around 18,210 - 18,610 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 70 yuan/ton compared to the previous period [9] 10. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On November 28, the price of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters decreased by 80 yuan/ton. For example, the price of zinc ingots from Hunan Mochazhaojing was 22,640 yuan/ton, and that from Liaoning Huludao Zinc Industry was 23,070 yuan/ton [12] 11. Refined Zinc Production - In October 2025, the actual production of refined zinc was 524,300 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 4.87%, a year - on - year increase of 18.38%, and a 2.88% increase compared to the planned value. The planned production for November is 522,300 tons [15] 12. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On November 28, the processing fee of 50% - grade domestic zinc concentrate was around 2,200 - 2,800 yuan/metal ton, and the imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate processing fee was 60 - 80 US dollars/dry ton, with a decrease of 10 US dollars/dry ton [17] 13. Member Trading and Position Ranking - On November 28, in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, for zinc trading, in terms of trading volume, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 28,212 lots, Orient Futures (on behalf of clients) with 24,739 lots, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 22,295 lots. In terms of long positions, the top three were Orient Futures (on behalf of clients) with 10,229 lots, CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 9,694 lots, and Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 7,863 lots. In terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures (on behalf of clients) with 16,159 lots, Guotai Junan (on behalf of clients) with 8,976 lots, and Galaxy Futures (on behalf of clients) with 5,056 lots [18]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-12-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • 1. 基本面：当前日产及开工率再次出现回升，重回近年高位，综合库存有所回落，去库形态 较明显。需求端，农业需求近期有所提升，工业需求按需为主，复合肥、三聚氰胺开工率同比均 有所回升。出口内外价差大，库存去库叠加农储需求提升，提振盘面情绪。国内尿素整体仍供过 于求。交割品现货1660（+10），基本面整体中性； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差-17，升贴水比例-1.0%，偏空； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存146.4万吨（-7.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向上，收盘价位于20日线上，偏多； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净空，增空，偏空； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡反弹 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 聚烯烃早报 2025-12-1 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我 司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 • LLDPE概述： • 1. 基本面：宏观方面，10月份，官方PMI为49，比上月下降0.8个百分点，制造业景气度有所 回落。OPEC+11 月 30 日会议决定维持 11 月初制定的产量计划，12 月份增产 13.7 万桶 / 日， 在 2026 年 1 月、2 月和 3 月暂停增产计划。近日丙烷价格走强带动聚烯烃价格。供需端，农 膜需求逐步回落，包装膜仍以刚需为主，部分地区有所转好。当前LL交割品现货价6770（-0）， 基本面整体偏空； • 2. 基差： LLDPE 2601合约基差-19，升贴水比例-0.3%，中性； • 3. 库存：PE综合库存50.1万吨（-5.3），偏空； • 4. 盘面： LLDP ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Copper supply is subject to disruptions with smelting enterprises reducing production and scrap - copper policies being relaxed. The November China Manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, still in the contraction range but showing marginal improvement. The overall assessment of the fundamentals is neutral [2]. - The spot price is 87360 with a basis of - 70, indicating a discount to the futures, which is neutral [2]. - On November 28, copper inventories increased by 2250 to 159425 tons, and SHFE copper inventories decreased by 12673 tons to 97930 tons compared with the previous week, a neutral situation [2]. - The closing price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is moving upwards, showing a bullish trend [2]. - The net position of the main players is long, but the long positions are decreasing, also showing a bullish trend [2]. - With inventory rising and geopolitical disturbances remaining (such as the event at Indonesia's Grasberg Block Cave mine), copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily View - The supply - side of copper has disturbances, and the PMI shows marginal improvement. The overall fundamentals, basis, and inventory are neutral; the price trend and main - player positions are bullish. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2]. Recent利多利空Analysis - The logic involves global policy easing and the escalation of trade wars, but specific details of the impact on copper prices are not elaborated [3]. Spot - The document provides a table format for spot information including location, mid - price, price change, and inventory details, but specific data is not filled in [6]. 期现价差 No specific content provided. Exchange Inventory No specific content provided. Bonded Area Inventory - Bonded area inventories are rising from a low level [13]. Processing Fee - Processing fees are falling [15]. CFTC No specific content provided. Supply - Demand Balance - In 2024, there is a slight surplus, and in 2025, the market will be in a tight balance. A detailed China annual supply - demand balance table for copper is also provided [19][21].