Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. - The supply - demand mismatch pattern in the soda ash industry has not been effectively improved [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily View - **Fundamentals**: Alkali plant maintenance is less, supply is at a high level; downstream float glass daily melting volume is stable, photovoltaic daily melting volume continues to decline, terminal demand is general, and soda ash factory inventory is at a historically high level for the same period; bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy - quality soda ash in Hebei Shahe is 1,200 yuan/ton, the closing price of SA2601 is 1,308 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 108 yuan, and the futures price is at a premium to the spot price; bearish [2]. - **Inventory**: The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average; bearish [2][35]. - **Disk**: The price is running above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward; neutral [2]. - **Main position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing; bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: The fundamentals of soda ash are weak, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [2]. 2. Influence Factors Summary - **Positive factors**: The peak maintenance period within the year is approaching, and production is expected to decline [3]. - **Negative factors**: Since 2023, the production capacity of soda ash has expanded significantly, and there are still large production - launch plans this year, with the industry output at a historically high level for the same period; the production of photovoltaic glass, a downstream product of heavy - quality soda ash, has decreased, and the demand for soda ash has weakened; the positive sentiment of macro - policies has subsided [4]. 3. Soda Ash Futures Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main contract closing price (yuan/ton) | 1,290 | 1,308 | 1.40% | | Heavy - quality soda ash: Shahe low - end price (yuan/ton) | 1,200 | 1,200 | 0.00% | | Main basis (yuan/ton) | - 90 | - 108 | 20.00% | [6] 4. Soda Ash Spot Market - The low - end price of heavy - quality soda ash in the Hebei Shahe market is 1,200 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day [11]. - **Production profit**: The profit of heavy - quality soda ash using the North China ammonia - soda process is - 96.30 yuan/ton, and that using the East China combined - production process is - 92.50 yuan/ton. The production profit of soda ash has rebounded from a historically low level [14]. - **Operating rate, production capacity and output**: The weekly operating rate of the soda ash industry is 87.29%. The weekly output of soda ash is 761,100 tons, of which heavy - quality soda ash is 421,700 tons, and the output is at a historical high [17][19]. - **Production capacity changes**: In 2023, the newly - added production capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned newly - added production capacity is 7.5 million tons, with an actual launch of 1 million tons [20]. 5. Fundamental Analysis - Demand - **Sales - to - production ratio**: The weekly sales - to - production ratio of soda ash is 103.23% [23]. - **Downstream demand**: The daily melting volume of national float glass is 160,200 tons, and the operating rate is 76.01% and stable; the price of photovoltaic glass continues to fall. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy, the industry has cut production, and the in - production daily melting volume continues a significant downward trend [26][32]. 6. Fundamental Analysis - Inventory The national soda ash factory inventory is 1.7975 million tons, a decrease of 1.35% from the previous week, and the inventory is running above the 5 - year average [35]. 7. Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Effective Capacity (10,000 tons) | Output (10,000 tons) | Operating Rate | Import (10,000 tons) | Export (10,000 tons) | Net Import (10,000 tons) | Apparent Supply (10,000 tons) | Total Demand (10,000 tons) | Supply - Demand Difference (10,000 tons) | Capacity Growth Rate | Output Growth Rate | Apparent Supply Growth Rate | Total Demand Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2017 | 3035 | 2715 | 89.46% | 14 | 152 | - 138 | 2577 | 2517 | 60 | 2.20% | 5.10% | 7.40% | 4.60% | | 2018 | 3067 | 2583 | 83.57% | 29 | 138 | - 109 | 2474 | 2523 | - 49 | 1.85% | - 4.86% | - 4.00% | 0.24% | | 2019 | 3247 | 2804 | 86.36% | 19 | 144 | - 125 | 2679 | 2631 | 48 | 5.05% | 8.56% | 8.29% | 4.28% | | 2020 | 3317 | 2757 | 73.40% | 36 | 138 | - 102 | 2655 | 2607 | 48 | 2.16% | - 1.68% | - 0.90% | - 0.91% | | 2021 | 3288 | 2892 | 71.90% | 23 | 73 | - 50 | 2842 | 2764 | 78 | - 0.87% | 4.90% | 7.04% | 6.02% | | 2022 | 3114 | 2944 | 85.26% | 11 | 206 | - 195 | 2749 | 2913 | - 164 | - 5.29% | 1.80% | - 3.27% | 5.39% | | 2023 | 3342 | 3228 | 87.76% | 82 | 144 | - 62 | 3166 | 3155 | 11 | 7.32% | 9.65% | 15.17% | 8.31% | | 2024E | 3930 | 3650 | 78.20% | 42 | 156 | - 114 | 3536 | 3379 | 157 | 17.59% | 13.07% | 11.69% | 7.10% | [36]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the spot market is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The market has support at the bottom, and it is advisable to buy on dips [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The fundamental situation of natural rubber is that supply is increasing, the spot is strong, domestic inventories are decreasing, and tire operating rates are at a high level, rated as neutral. The basis is -995 with a spot price of 15,000, rated as bearish. Exchange inventories have decreased both week - on - week and year - on - year, while Qingdao inventories have decreased week - on - week but increased year - on - year, rated as neutral. The price is above the 20 - day line with the 20 - day line trending upwards, rated as bullish. The main positions are net short with short positions decreasing, rated as bearish. The market has support at the bottom, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4] Fundamental Data - **Supply and Demand**: The downstream consumption is high, and the spot price is resistant to decline, which are positive factors. However, the supply is increasing, and domestic economic indicators are bearish, which are negative factors [6] - **Inventory**: Exchange inventories have been continuously decreasing recently, and Qingdao area inventories have shown small changes [14][17] - **Import**: The import volume has rebounded [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have seasonally declined, tire production reached a new high in the same period but decreased month - on - month, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] Basis - The basis weakened on September 15 [35] Spot Price - The spot price of 2023 full - latex (non - deliverable) increased on September 15 [8] Multi - Empty Factors and Main Risk Points - **Positive Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, and domestic anti - involution [6] - **Negative Factors**: Increasing supply, bearish domestic economic indicators, and trade frictions [6]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 焦煤焦炭早报（2025-9-16） 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 焦煤： 1、基本面：受安全事故影响，部分地区生产仍受压制。焦炭价格走弱，下游采购积极性一般，市场成 交仍显疲软，线上竞拍流拍比例仍较高，多数成交价格延续下跌，但由于煤矿库存处于中低位水平，主 流煤种报价暂稳；偏空 2、基差：现货市场价1130，基差-57.5；现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：钢厂库存805.8万吨，港口库存255.5万吨，独立焦企库存829.4万吨，总样本库存1890.7万吨， 较上周减少28.1万吨；偏多 6、预期：当下铁水产量高位，对双焦的刚需性仍在，但焦炭第二轮提降落地，焦企利润进一步压缩下， 下游对原料煤需求收紧，对高价原料接受度不高，市场偏谨慎，预计短期焦煤价格或弱稳运行。 4、盘 ...

证券代码：839979 油脂早报 2025-09-16投资咨询部 | 分析师: | 王明伟 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格号： | F0283029 | | 投资咨询号： | Z0010442 | | TEL: | 0575-85226759 | 每日观点 豆油 每日观点 棕榈油 1.基本面：MPOB报告显示，MPOB月报显示马棕5月产量环比减少9.8%至162万吨，出口环比减少14.74%至 149万吨，月末库存环比减少2.6%至183万吨。报告中性，减产不及预期。目前船调机构显示本月目前马 棕出口数据环比增加4%，后续进入增产季，棕榈油供应上有所增加。中性 2.基差：棕榈油现货9400，基差22，现货升水期货。偏多 3.库存：8月22日棕榈油港口库存58万吨，前值57万吨，环比+1万吨，同比-34.1%。偏多 4.盘面：期价运行在20日均线上，20日均线朝上。偏多 5.主力持仓：棕榈油主力多翻空。偏空 6.预期：油脂价格震荡整理，国内基本面宽松，国内油脂供应稳定。24/25年USDA南美产量预期较高，马 棕库存偏中性，需求有所好转，印尼B40促进国内消费，美豆油生柴政策扶持生柴消费增加。国内 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The LLDPE and PP markets are expected to show a volatile trend today. For LLDPE, the market is affected by geopolitical turmoil in the crude oil market, the entry of agricultural film demand into the peak season (but still weaker than in previous years), and a moderately high industrial inventory. For PP, the market is also influenced by geopolitical factors in the crude oil market, improved demand in downstream sectors such as pipes and plastic weaving, and a moderately high industrial inventory [4][7]. - The main driving factors for both LLDPE and PP include cost support due to geopolitical unrest and the gradual entry into the demand peak season. However, the demand is still weaker compared to the same period in previous years [5][8]. - The main logical drivers are cost - demand factors and the promotion of domestic macro - policies, while the main risk points are significant fluctuations in crude oil prices and international policy games [6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs LLDPE Overview - **Fundamentals**: In August, the official PMI was 49.4, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the Caixin PMI was 50.4, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment. China's exports in August were $321.81 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%, but a decline compared to July. The crude oil price is volatile, and recent geopolitical unrest in the Middle East has occurred. The demand for agricultural films is gradually entering the peak season, but overall demand is still weaker than in previous years, while the demand for other packaging films has rebounded. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7180 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [4]. - **Basis**: The basis of the LLDPE 2601 contract is - 52, with a premium/discount ratio of - 0.7%, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - **Inventory**: The PE comprehensive inventory is 545,000 tons (+35,000 tons), which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [4]. - **Main positions**: The net long positions of the LLDPE main contract are increasing, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - **Expectation**: The LLDPE main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [4]. PP Overview - **Fundamentals**: Similar to LLDPE, in August, manufacturing sentiment improved, exports increased year - on - year but declined compared to July, and the crude oil price was volatile with geopolitical unrest. The downstream demand is gradually entering the peak season, and the demand for pipes and plastic weaving has increased. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 6850 (-130), and the overall fundamentals are neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The basis of the PP 2601 contract is - 116, with a premium/discount ratio of - 1.7%, indicating a bearish signal [7]. - **Inventory**: The PP comprehensive inventory is 575,000 tons (-8,000 tons), which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish trend [7]. - **Main positions**: The net short positions of the PP main contract are decreasing, but still showing a bearish signal [7]. - **Expectation**: The PP main contract is expected to show a volatile trend today [7]. Market Data - **LLDPE**: The spot price of the delivery product is 7180 (unchanged), the price of the 01 contract is 7232 (+63), the basis is - 52 (-63), the number of warehouse receipts is 12,736 (+211), the PE comprehensive factory inventory is 545,000 tons (unchanged), and the PE social inventory is 547,000 tons (-14,000 tons) [10]. - **PP**: The spot price of the delivery product is 6850 (-130), the price of the 01 contract is 6966 (+53), the basis is - 116 (-183), the number of warehouse receipts is 13,706 (unchanged), the PP comprehensive factory inventory is 575,000 tons (unchanged), and the PP social inventory is 295,000 tons (unchanged) [10]. Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **Polyethylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polyethylene have generally shown an upward trend, while the import dependence has gradually decreased. For example, in 2018, the import dependence was 46.3%, and in 2024, it dropped to 32.9% [15]. - **Polypropylene**: From 2018 to 2024, the production capacity, output, and apparent consumption of polypropylene have also increased, and the import dependence has decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024 [17].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 尿素早报 2025-9-16 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 • 尿素概述： • 1. 基本面：近期尿素盘面震荡。当前日产及开工率略有回落仍处于偏高位置，库存整体高位。 需求端，工业需求中复合肥开工回升，三聚氰胺开工中性，农业需求进入淡季。国内尿素整体供 过于求仍明显，出口利润仍较高，出口政策未显著放开。交割品现货1760（-20），基本面整体 偏空； • 2. 基差： UR2601合约基差77，升贴水比例4.4%，偏多； • 3. 库存：UR综合库存137.1万吨（-4.0），偏空； • 4. 盘面： UR主力合约20日均线向下，收盘价位于20日线下，偏空； • 5. 主力持仓：UR主力持仓净多，增多，偏多； • 6. 预期：尿素主力合约盘面震荡，国际尿素价格偏强，出口政策未超预期放开，国内整体供 过于求仍明显，预计UR今日走势震荡 • 尿素概述： • 利多 • 1、国际价格偏强 • 利空 • 1、开工日产高位 • 2、国内需求偏弱 重要提示：本报告非期货交易 ...

1、基本面：现货不锈钢价格上涨，短期镍矿价格坚，海运费坚挺，印尼突查镍矿并有所封查，引发对镍 矿的看涨情绪。镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线坚挺，不锈钢库存继续回落，金九银十去库存良好。中性偏 多 2、基差：不锈钢平均价格14012.5，基差942.5，偏多 3、库存：期货仓单：96349，-600，偏空 4、盘面：收盘价在20均线以上，20均线向上，偏多 5、结论：不锈钢2511：震荡偏强运行。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪镍&不锈钢早报—2025年9月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 祝森林 从业资：F3023048 投资咨询证：Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 沪镍 每日观点 1、基本面：外盘冲高回落，高位震荡运行。产业链上，镍矿价格坚挺，印尼突然查矿引发矿端利多， 看后期是否会有实质性的情况。镍铁价格稳中有升，成本线进一步上移。不锈钢库存继续回落，金九银 十去库存良好。新能源汽车产销数据 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 菜粕早报 大越期货投资咨询部：王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询资格证号：Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 近期要闻 3 多空关注 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 2025-09-15 ✸菜粕观点和策略 菜粕RM2601：2500至2560区间震荡 1.基本面：菜粕震荡回落，中加贸易关系有改善传闻和技术性震荡整理，市场回归震荡等待 加拿大油菜籽进口反倾销裁定尚待最终结果。菜粕现货需求短期维持旺季，库存维持低 位支撑盘面，但国庆后菜粕需求逐渐进入淡季和中加贸易磋商仍变数，盘面短期受反倾 销初步裁定影响偏强震荡。偏多 2.基差：现货2600，基差69，升水期货。偏多 3.库存：菜粕库存1.8万吨，上周2.5万吨，周环比减少28%，去年同期2.4万吨，同比减少 25%。偏多 4.盘面：价格在20日均线下方且 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PVC期货早报 2025年9月15日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 供给端来看，据隆众统计，2025年8月PVC产量为207.334万吨，环比增加3.43%；本周样本企业产能利 用率为77.13%，环比增加0.01个百分点；电石法企业产量32.7885万吨，环比减少0.68%,乙烯法企业产 量13.406万吨，环比增加7.11%；本周供给压力有所增加；下周预计检修有所减少，预计排产少量增加 需求端来看，下游整体开工率为43.5%，环比增加.899个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游型材开工率 为38.39%，环比减少4.21个百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游管材开工率为33.48%，环比减少0.13个 百分点，低于历史平均水平；下游薄膜开 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side shows that in August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt decreased, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure. Next week, supply pressure may further decrease [7]. - On the demand side, the current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The overall demand recovery is less than expected and remains sluggish [7]. - In terms of cost, the daily asphalt processing profit decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - The basis shows that on September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [9]. - Regarding inventory, social inventory and in - plant inventory are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is continuously increasing [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20 [9]. - The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [9]. - It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 30.501%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.90 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments, production, and device maintenance volume changed accordingly, and refineries reduced production to ease supply pressure [7]. - **Demand**: The current demand for various types of asphalt is lower than the historical average level. The heavy - traffic asphalt, building asphalt, modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane opening rates are all in a state of being lower than the historical average, with some showing a downward trend [7]. - **Cost**: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 513.38 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 3.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 792.0771 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.94%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. With the weakening of crude oil, the short - term cost support is expected to weaken [8]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price in Shandong was 3530 yuan/ton, and the basis of the November contract was 162 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1225,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.54%. In - plant inventory was 642,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.74%. Port diluted asphalt inventory was 320,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 68.42%. Social and in - plant inventories are continuously decreasing, while port inventory is increasing, which is a bullish factor [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the November contract price closed below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: It is expected that the disk will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating in the range of 3346 - 3390 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the asphalt market on September 12, including current values, previous values, price changes, and price change percentages of different contracts, heavy - traffic asphalt market mainstream prices, registered warehouse receipts, basis, downstream demand opening rates, asphalt coking profit differences, weekly shipments, weekly production and loss amounts, weekly opening rates, and weekly inventories [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the asphalt basis in Shandong and East China from 2020 to 2025 through charts, which helps to analyze the price relationship between the spot and futures markets [18][19]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The historical trends of the spreads between the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for spread trading analysis [21][22]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [24][25]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oil from 2020 to 2025 are shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt refining [27][28][29]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the relative price relationship among these commodities [31][33]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The historical price trend of heavy - traffic asphalt in Shandong from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which helps to understand the price changes in the local asphalt market [34][35]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis - Asphalt Profit**: The historical trend of asphalt profit from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the profitability of asphalt production [36][37]. - **Profit Analysis - Coking Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The historical trend of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 is shown, which is helpful for analyzing the profit difference between the two production processes [39][40][41]. - **Supply - Side - Shipment Volume**: The historical trend of weekly shipment volume from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the supply - side shipment situation [42][43]. - **Supply - Side - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The historical trend of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation of diluted asphalt at ports [44][45]. - **Supply - Side - Production Volume**: The historical trends of weekly and monthly production volumes from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the overall production situation of asphalt [47][48]. - **Supply - Side - Ma Rui Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: The historical trends of Ma Rui crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production from 2018 to 2025 are shown, which helps to analyze the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [51][53]. - **Supply - Side - Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: The historical trend of local refinery asphalt production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the production situation of local refineries [54][55]. - **Supply - Side - Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the weekly opening rate from 2021 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the production activity of asphalt enterprises [57][58]. - **Supply - Side - Maintenance Loss Estimation**: The historical trend of maintenance loss estimation from 2018 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the impact of enterprise maintenance on production [59][60]. - **Inventory - Exchange Warehouse Receipt**: The historical trend of exchange warehouse receipts from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory situation in the futures market [62][63][64]. - **Inventory - Social Inventory and In - Plant Inventory**: The historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and in - plant inventory (54 samples) from 2022 to 2025 are presented, which helps to understand the inventory situation in the spot market [66][67]. - **Inventory - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The historical trend of the in - plant inventory inventory ratio from 2018 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the inventory management efficiency of enterprises [69][70]. - **Import and Export Situation**: The historical trends of asphalt export and import from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the impact of international trade on the domestic asphalt market [72][73]. - **Demand - Side - Petroleum Coke Production**: The historical trend of petroleum coke production from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to understand the demand situation in related fields [78][79]. - **Demand - Side - Apparent Consumption**: The historical trend of apparent consumption from 2019 to 2025 is shown, which helps to analyze the overall market demand for asphalt [81][82]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Demand**: - **Highway Construction and Fixed - Asset Investment in Transportation**: The historical trend of highway construction and fixed - asset investment in transportation from 2020 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [84][85]. - **New Local Special Bonds and Infrastructure Investment Completion Rate**: The historical trends of new local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion rate from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the impact of government investment on asphalt demand [86]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, and the sales volume of domestic excavators and road rollers from 2020 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [88][89][91]. - **Demand - Side - Asphalt Opening Rate**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt Opening Rate**: The historical trend of the heavy - traffic asphalt opening rate from 2019 to 2025 is presented, which helps to analyze the production activity of heavy - traffic asphalt [93][94]. - **Asphalt Opening Rate by Use**: The historical trends of the building asphalt and modified asphalt opening rates from 2019 to 2025 are shown, which helps to understand the production situation of different types of asphalt [96][97]. - **Demand - Side - Downstream Opening Situation**: The historical trends of the opening rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane modified asphalt from 2019 to 2025 are presented, which helps to analyze the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [99][100][102]. 3.7 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheet from January 2024 to September 2025, including asphalt monthly production, import volume, export volume, social inventory, factory inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the supply - demand relationship in the asphalt market [104][105].