Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The current daily production and operating rate of urea have rebounded to recent highs, and the comprehensive inventory has declined with an obvious de - stocking pattern. The agricultural demand has increased recently, while the industrial demand is mainly based on needs. The opening rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased year - on - year. The large price difference between domestic and foreign markets for exports, combined with inventory de - stocking and increased agricultural storage demand, has boosted the sentiment of the futures market. However, the domestic urea market is still in a state of oversupply. The spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), and the overall fundamentals are neutral. The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, also neutral. The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish. The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is bearish. It is expected that the UR main contract will fluctuate today. [4] - The bullish factors for urea are inventory de - stocking, while the bearish factors are domestic oversupply and continuous new highs in daily production. The main logic lies in international prices and marginal changes in domestic demand. [5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: Daily production and operating rate are at recent highs, inventory is decreasing, agricultural demand is rising, industrial demand is based on needs, and there is an export price difference. The overall domestic supply exceeds demand, and the spot price of the delivery product is 1680 (+20), with neutral fundamentals. [4] - **Basis**: The UR2601 contract basis is 5, with a premium/discount ratio of 0.3%, neutral. [4] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.464 million tons (-73,000 tons), bearish. [4] - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, bullish. [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main UR contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish. [4] - **Expectation**: The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today. [4] Spot and Futures Market Quotes | Region/Contract | Price | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | Spot Delivery Product | 1680 | +20 | | Shandong Spot | 1690 | +20 | | Henan Spot | 1680 | 0 | | FOB China | 2811 | - | | 01 Contract | 1675 | -2 | | UR05 | 1744 | +1 | | UR09 | 1763 | +6 | | Basis (UR2601) | 5 | +22 | | Warehouse Receipt | 7,937 | +350 | | UR Comprehensive Inventory (10,000 tons) | 146.4 | -7.3 | | UR Manufacturer Inventory (10,000 tons) | 136.4 | - | | UR Port Inventory (10,000 tons) | 10 | - | [6] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | - | 2,245.5 | 1,956.81 | 448.38 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | - | | 2019 | - | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 487.94 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | - | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 619.12 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | - | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 352.41 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | - | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 335.37 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | - | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 293.13 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | - | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 360 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | - | 4,906 | 11.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of glass are weak. With supply stabilizing at a low level, dismal orders from downstream deep - processing factories, and rising glass factory inventories, it is expected that glass will mainly fluctuate weakly in the short term [2][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass Futures Market - The closing price of the main glass futures contract decreased from 1053 yuan/ton to 1036 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.61%. The spot price of Shahe Safe large - size glass remained unchanged at 1004 yuan/ton. The main basis changed from - 49 yuan/ton to - 32 yuan/ton, a change of - 34.69% [7]. Glass Spot Market - The market price of 5mm white glass large - size boards in the spot benchmark area of Hebei Shahe was 1004 yuan/ton, remaining the same as the previous day [14]. Fundamentals - Cost Side No specific content on cost - side analysis other than mentioning glass production profit is provided. Fundamentals - Supply - The number of operating national float glass production lines is 220, with an operating rate of 74.51%. The number of operating production lines is at a historical low for the same period. The daily melting volume of national float glass is 157,200 tons, and the production capacity is at a historical low for the same period [25][27]. Fundamentals - Demand - In September 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 470,820 tons. The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, and the number of orders from glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low for the same period. The capital collection in the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, and traders and processors are cautious, mainly consuming the original glass inventory [5][30]. Fundamentals - Inventory - The inventory of national float glass enterprises is 62.362 million weight boxes, a decrease of 1.49% from the previous week. The inventory is running above the 5 - year average [43]. Fundamentals - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The supply - demand balance sheet from 2017 to 2024E shows fluctuations in production, consumption, and net import ratios. For example, in 2024E, production is expected to be 55.1 million tons, consumption is 53.1 million tons, and the net import ratio is - 0.90% [44]. Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: "Coal - to - gas" in the Shahe area and industry cold - repairs have led to production losses [4]. - **Negative factors**: Weak real - estate terminal demand and low orders from glass deep - processing enterprises. Also, the poor capital collection in the deep - processing industry makes traders and processors cautious, mainly focusing on consuming original glass inventory [5].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The nickel price rebounded last week, with producers showing some reluctance to sell and traders remaining cautious. Some production capacities have reduced output, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. The price of nickel ore remains firm, and ocean freight rates are stable. Indonesia's 2026 RKAB quota is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. The price of nickel iron shows signs of stabilizing, with most remaining flat and a small portion still declining. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are persistently high, and the oversupply situation remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited. The conclusion is that the Shanghai nickel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and it is advisable to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, ocean freight rates are stable, and the price of nickel iron has stopped falling, with most remaining flat. The cost line is stable, and stainless steel inventories are rising. The conclusion is that the stainless steel 2601 contract will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - **Nickel and Stainless Steel Futures and Spot Prices**: From November 28 to December 1, the Shanghai nickel futures main contract rose from 117,010 to 117,850, an increase of 840; the London nickel futures rose from 14,820 to 14,875, an increase of 55; the stainless steel futures main contract rose from 12,355 to 12,445, an increase of 90. Among spot prices, SMM1 electrolytic nickel rose from 119,500 to 119,750, an increase of 250; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose from 121,900 to 122,150, an increase of 250; 1 imported nickel rose from 117,550 to 117,750, an increase of 200; nickel beans rose from 119,600 to 119,800, an increase of 200. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel remained flat in major regions [10]. Inventory Changes - **Nickel Inventory**: As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 40,782 tons, with the futures inventory at 33,309 tons, an increase of 987 tons and a decrease of 476 tons respectively. On December 1, the London nickel inventory was 254,364, a decrease of 396 from November 28; the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 32,722, a decrease of 587; the total inventory was 287,086, a decrease of 983 [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: On November 28, the inventory in Wuxi was 579,400 tons, in Foshan was 355,900 tons, and the national inventory was 1,086,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,400 tons. Among them, the inventory of the 300 - series was 669,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10,400 tons. On December 1, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 62,998, a decrease of 121 from November 28 [17][18]. Cost - related - **Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices**: The price of red clay nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 57 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% remained at 29 US dollars per wet ton. Ocean freight rates from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) decreased from 883 to 882 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,200 yuan per ton [22]. - **Stainless Steel Production Cost**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel is 12,488 yuan, the production cost using scrap steel is 12,823 yuan, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel is 16,272 yuan [24]. - **Nickel Import Cost**: The calculated import price is 119,116 yuan per ton [27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of oils and fats are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. The domestic fundamentals are loose, and the domestic supply of oils and fats is stable. Sino - US relations are tense, which puts pressure on the price of new US soybeans due to export setbacks. The inventory of Malaysian palm oil is neutral, and the demand has improved. Indonesia's B40 policy promotes domestic consumption, and the B50 plan is expected to be implemented in 2026. The domestic fundamentals of oils and fats are neutral, and the import inventory is stable [2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: The MPOB report shows that in August, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 9.8% month - on - month to 1.62 million tons, exports decreased by 14.74% to 1.49 million tons, and the end - of - month inventory decreased by 2.6% to 1.83 million tons. The report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply pressure of palm oil will decrease as it enters the production - reduction season [2]. - **Basis**: The spot price of soybean oil is 8,472, with a basis of 188, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1.18 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from the previous period and a 11.7% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [2]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [2]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main soybean oil contract have increased, which is bullish [2]. - **Expectation**: The soybean oil contract Y2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,000 - 8,400 [2]. 3.1.2 Palm Oil - **Fundamentals**: Similar to soybean oil, the MPOB report is neutral with less - than - expected production cuts. Currently, the export data of Malaysian palm oil this month shows a 4% month - on - month increase, and the supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [3]. - **Basis**: The spot price of palm oil is 8,690, with a basis of 38, indicating a neutral situation [3]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the port inventory of palm oil was 580,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 34.1% year - on - year decrease, which is bullish [3]. - **Market**: The futures price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, which is bearish [3]. - **Main Position**: The short positions of the main palm oil contract have decreased, which is bullish [3]. - **Expectation**: The palm oil contract P2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8,400 - 8,800 [3]. 3.1.3 Rapeseed Oil - **Fundamentals**: The same MPOB report situation as above. The supply of palm oil will increase as it enters the production - increase season [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price of rapeseed oil is 10,145, with a basis of 375, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish [4]. - **Inventory**: On September 22, the commercial inventory of rapeseed oil was 560,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from the previous period and a 3.2% year - on - year increase, which is bearish [4]. - **Market**: The futures price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is upward, which is bullish [4]. - **Main Position**: The long positions of the main rapeseed oil contract have increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Expectation**: The rapeseed oil contract OI2601 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9,500 - 9,900 [4]. 3.2 Recent利多利空Analysis - **Likely to be Bullish**: The US soybean stock - to - use ratio remains around 4%, indicating tight supply [5]. - **Likely to be Bearish**: The prices of oils and fats are at a relatively high historical level, and the domestic inventory of oils and fats is continuously increasing. The macro - economy is weak, and the expected production of related oils and fats is high [5]. - **Main Logic**: The global fundamentals of oils and fats are relatively loose [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates that the prices of coking coal and coke will likely weaken in the short term. Coking coal faces challenges such as slow production growth, poor new orders, and inventory pressure, while coke has issues like increased production, inventory backlog, and weak downstream demand [2][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Views Coking Coal - Fundamentals: Coal mine production is mostly normal, but output growth is slow. Spot trading is average, speculative sentiment has declined, and new orders are poor. Some mines face inventory pressure, and prices are expected to drop further [2] - Basis: The spot price is 1190, with a basis of 97, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [2] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 1957 tons, a decrease of 21 tons from last week [2] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [2] - Main Position: The main net short position in coking coal has decreased [2] - Expectation: Coking enterprises aim to cut raw material coal prices, and currently purchase only for immediate needs. Prices are expected to weaken in the short term [2] Coke - Fundamentals: Due to falling coal prices, coke production has increased, but shipments are blocked, and inventory has accumulated, resulting in a relatively loose supply [6] - Basis: The spot price is 1600, with a basis of 19.5, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price [6] - Inventory: Total sample inventory is 858 tons, a decrease of 1 ton from last week [6] - Market: The 20 - day line is downward, and the price is below it [6] - Main Position: The main net short position in coke has decreased [6] - Expectation: Although the first - round coke price cut has reduced profit margins, coke production continues to increase due to larger coal price drops. Steel mills still want to lower coke prices, and prices are expected to weaken in the short term [6] Influencing Factors Coking Coal - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and limited supply growth [4] - Bearish: Slower procurement of raw material coal by coking and steel enterprises and weak steel prices [4] Coke - Bullish: Rising hot metal production and increasing blast furnace operating rates [8] - Bearish: Squeezed profit margins of steel mills and partially over - drawn restocking demand [8] Price Quotes - Mysteel provided the import coking coal spot price quotes on December 1 at 17:30, including prices for various types of coking coal from Russia and Australia at different ports [9] - Mysteel also provided the port metallurgical coke price index on December 1 at 17:30, showing prices and price changes of different grades of metallurgical coke from different origins at various ports [10] Inventory - Port Inventory: Coking coal port inventory is 295 tons, a decrease of 0.1 tons from last week; coke port inventory is 195.1 tons, an increase of 1 ton from last week [18] - Independent Coking Enterprise Inventory: Independent coking enterprises' coking coal inventory is 819.3 tons, a decrease of 69.2 tons from last week; coke inventory is 42.5 tons, an increase of 3.5 tons from last week [22] - Steel Mill Inventory: Steel mills' coking coal inventory is 803.8 tons, an increase of 4.3 tons from last week; coke inventory is 626.7 tons, a decrease of 13.3 tons from last week [27] Other Data - Coke Oven Capacity Utilization: The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises nationwide is 74.48% [40] - Average Profit per Ton of Coke: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is 25 yuan [44]

证券代码：839979 工业硅期货周报 2025年11月24日-11月28日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 1 回顾与展望 2 基本面分析 3 技术面分析 2 回顾与展望——工业硅 本周01合约为上涨态势,周一开盘价为8940元/吨,周五收盘价为9130元/吨，周涨幅为2.13% 供给端来看,本周工业硅供应量为9.1万吨，环比持平。本周样本企业产量为45390万吨,环比 持平;其中云南样本企业开工率为30.29%,环比持平,四川样本企业开工率为12.06%,环比持平,新 疆样本企业开工率为84.8%,环比持平,西北样本企业开工率为80%,环比增加2.56%,预计本月开工 率为58%,较上月开工率68.12%减少10.12个百分点。 需求端来看,本周工业硅需求为8.2万吨，环比增长2.50%,需求有所抬升。具体来看，多晶硅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated with an initial decline followed by a rise. NYMEX's front - month light crude oil futures closed at $58.48 per barrel, up 0.86% for the week; Brent crude oil's front - month futures closed at $62.32 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC front - month contract closed at 455.9 yuan per barrel, up 1.90% for the week. Geopolitical concerns first weakened and then rebounded, and the possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, which supported oil prices. Overall, oil prices are still subject to short - term shocks from macro events, and the volatile market will continue. Short - term trading is recommended in the range of 440 - 465, and long - term investors should wait and see [3][5] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Review - **Price Movement**: NYMEX's front - month light crude oil futures closed at $58.48 per barrel, up 0.86% for the week; Brent crude oil's front - month futures closed at $62.32 per barrel, up 0.69% for the week; China's crude oil futures SC front - month contract closed at 455.9 yuan per barrel, up 1.90% for the week [3] - **Geopolitical Factors**: Geopolitical concerns first weakened as the US and Ukraine made progress in peace talks, but then rebounded as Russia remained cautious about the peace agreement. The new "19 - point" peace plan was proposed, and its future depends on multiple variables [3][4] - **Supply Factors**: Three OPEC+ sources said the alliance may keep production unchanged at its December meeting and focus on discussing member countries' production capacity. Eight OPEC+ members have gradually increased production in 2025 and are expected to maintain the policy of suspending production increases in the first quarter of 2026 [3] - **Economic Factors**: The possibility of the Fed's interest rate cut increased, which supported oil prices. Market bets on a December rate cut increased, and several Fed officials supported a rate cut, but there are also concerns about inflation risks within the Fed [3][4] - **Funding Factors**: In the week of November 25, the speculative net long positions in Brent crude oil futures decreased by 57,430 to 120,934 contracts; as of the week of October 14, speculators' net long positions in WTI crude oil decreased by 13,318 contracts to 60,991 contracts [3] 2. Related News - **Fed Interest Rate**: Market expectations for a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December rose to about 87%. Multiple Fed officials supported a rate cut, but there are internal differences regarding inflation risks. The December FOMC meeting time is a focus due to the delay of employment reports [4] - **Ukraine Peace Talks**: The US and Ukraine proposed a new "19 - point" peace plan. Russia said it was too early to discuss the final version, and only when Ukraine withdraws from the claimed Russian territory can a cease - fire be announced [4] 3. Outlook - Geopolitical concerns may further weaken as Trump discussed a possible summit with Venezuelan leader Maduro. OPEC+ may keep the oil output level unchanged at its Sunday meeting and reach an agreement on the mechanism for evaluating member countries' maximum production capacity, slightly supporting oil prices. Oil prices will continue to fluctuate, with short - term trading recommended in the range of 440 - 465 and long - term waiting and seeing [5] 4. Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The price changes of various crude oil varieties in the week are as follows: UK Brent Dtd rose 0.77%, WTI fell 1.38%, Oman crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region fell 1.34%, China's Shengli crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region fell 2.39%, Dubai crude oil in the Asia - Pacific region fell 1.21%, and OPEC's basket of crude oil prices fell 1.29% [7] - **EIA Inventory**: From September 19 to November 21, EIA inventories showed fluctuations. For example, on September 19, it was 41,475.4 barrels, a decrease of 60,700 barrels compared with the previous period; on November 21, it was 42,692.9 barrels, an increase of 277,400 barrels compared with the previous period [9] - **Cushing Inventory**: From September 19 to November 21, Cushing inventories also fluctuated. For example, on September 19, it was 2,373,800 barrels, an increase of 17,700 barrels compared with the previous period; on November 21, it was 2,175,300 barrels, a decrease of 6,800 barrels compared with the previous period [10] 5. Position Data - **WTI Net Long Position**: As shown by CFTC data from July 22 to September 23, WTI net long positions have changed. For example, on July 22, it was 153,331 contracts, a decrease of 9,096 contracts compared with the previous period; on September 23, it was 102,958 contracts, an increase of 4,249 contracts compared with the previous period [16] - **Brent Net Long Position**: As shown by ICE data from August 19 to October 21, Brent net long positions have changed. For example, on August 19, it was 182,695 contracts, a decrease of 23,852 contracts compared with the previous period; on October 21, it was 52,521 contracts, a decrease of 57,085 contracts compared with the previous period [18]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic pig market has entered the off - season after the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays. Recently, the spread of swine fever has increased short - term hog slaughter, suppressing pig prices. It is expected that both hog and pork supply will increase. On the demand side, the domestic macro - environment is expected to improve, but consumer willingness has weakened after the long holiday, suppressing short - term fresh pork consumption. However, future demand for cured pork will support price bottoms. Overall, the market this week may see an increase in both supply and demand, with pig prices expected to decline in the short - term and maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the changes in the slaughter rhythm of large - scale farms at the end of the month and the dynamics of the secondary fattening market [8]. - The basis shows that the national average spot price is 11,130 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 2601 contract is 335 yuan/ton, indicating that the spot price is at a discount to the futures price [8]. - As of September 30, the hog inventory was 436.8 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.2% and a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. As of the end of September, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.35 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 0.01% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.66% [8]. - The price is below the 20 - day moving average and the direction is downward [8]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are decreasing [8]. - It is expected that the supply and demand of hogs will start to decrease in the near future. Pig prices are expected to bottom out and return to a volatile pattern this week. The LH2601 contract of hogs will fluctuate in the range of 11,300 - 11,700 [8]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Daily Tips - Not provided in the report 3.2 Recent News - The domestic hog consumption market has been affected by the off - season. Recently, swine fever has spread, leading to an increase in hog slaughter and supply. Spot prices are weak in the short - term and will maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term [10]. - After the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays, pork demand has weakened in the short - term. Affected by the increase in supply, spot hog prices are fluctuating weakly. The room for further decline may be limited, and prices may bottom out and rebound [10]. - The losses in domestic hog farming have recently expanded, and the short - term profit has deteriorated. The enthusiasm for slaughtering large hogs has weakened in the short - term. The decrease in both supply and demand supports the short - term expectations of hog futures and spot prices [10]. - Spot hog prices are fluctuating downward. Futures are weak in the short - term and may maintain a range - bound pattern in the medium - term. Further observation of supply and demand growth is needed [10]. 3.3 Bullish and Bearish Factors - **Bullish Factors**: The domestic hog supply has entered the off - season after the long holiday, and the room for further decline in domestic hog spot prices may be limited [11]. - **Bearish Factors**: The domestic macro - environment is expected to improve due to the preliminary Sino - US trade agreement, and the domestic hog inventory has increased year - on - year [11]. - **Main Logic**: The market focuses on hog slaughter and fresh meat demand [11]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The report provides the prices of hog futures (including the main 2601 and far - month 2603 contracts), hog futures warrants, and the spot prices of outer - ternary hogs in different regions from November 21 to November 28 [12]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply: In November 2025, the total planned output of asphalt from local refineries was 1.312 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 6.5%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 29.4823%, a month - on - month increase of 3.056 percentage points. Refineries have increased production recently, increasing supply pressure [7]. - Demand: The current demand is lower than the historical average. The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.8%, a month - on - month increase of 0.12 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 6.6%, unchanged from the previous month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 10.5658%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 29%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.00 percentage points; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.20 percentage points [7]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 474.97 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 4.30%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 1,102.9986 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.49%. The asphalt processing loss increased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil strengthened, and it is expected that the cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - Market Outlook: It is expected that the asphalt market will fluctuate narrowly in the short term, and the asphalt 2602 contract will fluctuate in the range of 2,969 - 3,023 [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply**: The supply pressure is high. The planned output of local refineries in November 2025 increased, and the capacity utilization rate and output of sample enterprises increased this week [7]. - **Demand**: The overall demand is weak, and the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products are lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost**: The asphalt processing loss increased, but the strengthening of crude oil provides short - term cost support [7]. - **Other Factors**: The basis is neutral; the inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, which is neutral; the disk is bearish; the main positions are net short with an increase in short positions, which is bearish [7]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The prices of most asphalt contracts decreased slightly, and the inventory of various types decreased, including a 2.51% month - on - month decrease in social inventory, a 9.50% month - on - month decrease in factory inventory, and a 28.75% month - on - month decrease in port diluted asphalt inventory [15]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [18][20]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: It shows the historical trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contract spreads of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [22][23]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: Displays the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025, helping to analyze the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [26]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: Presents the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt against SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025, which is important for understanding the refining profit margins [29][30]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: Shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025, providing insights into the relative value of these commodities [34]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Different Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [36]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis**: - **Asphalt Profit**: Displays the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the profitability of asphalt production [38]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the profit spread between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is crucial for refineries' production decisions [41][42]. - **Supply - Side Analysis**: - **Shipment Volume**: Presents the historical weekly shipment volumes of asphalt from 2020 to 2025, reflecting the market supply situation [44][45]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025, which is related to the raw material supply of asphalt production [46][47]. - **Production Volume**: Displays the historical weekly and monthly production volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, helping to understand the overall supply capacity [50]. - **Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Production Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the price of Marine crude oil and the monthly production of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 to 2025, which affects the cost and supply of asphalt raw materials [53][55]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Production**: Presents the historical monthly production volumes of local refinery asphalt from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [56][57]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: Displays the historical weekly capacity utilization rates of asphalt from 2021 to 2025, which is an important indicator of the supply capacity [59][60]. - **Maintenance Loss Estimation**: Shows the historical trends of maintenance loss estimation of asphalt production from 2018 to 2025, which is related to the supply interruption [63]. - **Inventory Analysis**: - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: Presents the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the market supply and demand balance [66][67]. - **Social Inventory and Factory Inventory**: Shows the historical trends of social and factory inventories of asphalt from 2022 to 2025, reflecting the inventory levels in different sectors [70]. - **Factory Inventory - to - Stock Ratio**: Displays the historical trends of the factory inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025, which helps to understand the inventory management of factories [73]. - **Import and Export Analysis**: - **Export and Import Trends**: Presents the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the international market demand and supply [76][77]. - **Korean Asphalt Import Price Spread Trend**: Shows the historical trends of the import price spread of Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025, which is important for import cost analysis [80][81]. - **Demand - Side Analysis**: - **Petroleum Coke Production**: Displays the historical monthly production volumes of petroleum coke from 2019 to 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt as a by - product [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: Presents the historical monthly apparent consumption volumes of asphalt from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the overall market demand [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand**: - **Infrastructure - Related Demand**: Shows the historical trends of highway construction fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [88][90]. - **Mechanical Equipment Demand**: Displays the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and road roller sales from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in construction projects [92][95]. - **Asphalt开工率**: - **Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率**: Presents the historical trends of heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, reflecting the production activity in the heavy - traffic asphalt sector [97][98]. - **Asphalt开工率 by Use**: Shows the historical trends of construction asphalt开工率 and modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, which helps to understand the demand structure of different types of asphalt [101]. - **Downstream开工率**: Displays the historical trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt开工率, road - modified asphalt开工率, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt开工率 from 2019 to 2025, which are related to the demand for asphalt in downstream industries [103][106]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: - The report provides a monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from January 2024 to November 2025, including monthly production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand data [108][109].

大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 2025年12月1日 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为21865吨，环比减少1.19%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为104341吨，环比增加1.71%,上周三元材料样本企业 库存为19361吨，环比增加0.37%。 供给端，2025年10月碳酸锂产量为92260实物吨，预测下月产量为92080实物吨，环比减少 0.19%,2025年10月碳酸锂进口量为23881实物吨，预测下月进口量为27000实物吨，环比增加 13.06%。需求端，预计下月需求有所强化，库存或将有所去化。成本端，6%精矿CIF价格日度 环比有所增长，低于历史同期平均水平，需求持 ...