1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has decreased and is near the historical average. The demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 9025 - 9235 [3][5]. - For polysilicon, the supply - side production schedule continues to decrease, and the overall demand shows a continuous decline. Cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 55555 - 57295 [7][8]. - The main logic of the market is capacity clearance, cost support, and demand increment. The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' shutdown and production - cut plans, while the main bearish factors are slow post - holiday demand recovery and strong supply but weak demand in downstream polysilicon [11][12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views 3.1.1 Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week, the supply was 91,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [5]. - Demand: Last week, the demand was 82,000 tons, a 2.50% increase from the previous week, showing an upward trend [5]. - Inventory: Polysilicon inventory is 281,000 tons (low), silicone inventory is 56,300 tons (low), and aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 74,600 tons (high). Social inventory increased by 0.36% to 550,000 tons, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01% to 179,600 tons, and main port inventory remained unchanged at 129,000 tons [5]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 is 2,874 yuan/ton, and cost support has increased during the dry season [5]. - Basis: On November 28, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9,350 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was 220 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [5]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [5]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are decreasing [5]. 3.1.2 Polysilicon - Supply: Last week, the output was 24,000 tons, a 11.43% decrease from the previous week. The production schedule in December is predicted to be 113,500 tons, a 0.95% decrease from the previous month [8]. - Demand: Last week, the silicon wafer output was 12.02GW, a 5.94% decrease from the previous week, and the inventory increased by 4.16%. The production of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components is generally in a state of continuous decline [8]. - Cost: The average cost of N - type polysilicon in the industry is 38,810 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 12,190 yuan/ton [8]. - Basis: On November 28, the price of N - type dense material was 51,000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 01 contract was - 4,125 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 281,000 tons, a 3.69% increase from the previous week, at a historical low [8]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 01 contract closed above MA20 [8]. - Main position: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing [8]. 3.2 Market Overview 3.2.1 Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 0.16% to 0.71%. Spot prices of various types of silicon remained mostly unchanged [15]. - Inventory: Social inventory increased by 0.36%, sample enterprise inventory increased by 1.01%, and main port inventory remained unchanged [15]. 3.2.2 Polysilicon - Futures prices of most contracts showed an upward trend, with increases ranging from 2.15% to 3.05%. Spot prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components remained mostly unchanged [17]. - Inventory: The weekly total inventory increased by 3.69% to 281,000 tons [17]. 3.3 Downstream Market Analysis 3.3.1 Organic Silicon - DMC: The daily capacity utilization rate remained unchanged at 74.84%, higher than the historical average. The weekly output increased by 3.58% to 49,200 tons, and the monthly inventory increased by 2.18% to 56,300 tons [15][45]. - Downstream products: Prices of 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4 remained stable [47]. 3.3.2 Aluminum Alloy - Production: The monthly output of primary aluminum - based alloy ingots increased by 9.93% to 132,800 tons, and the monthly output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 2.42% to 645,000 tons [15]. - Inventory: The weekly social inventory of aluminum alloy ingots decreased by 0.80% to 74,600 tons [15][16]. 3.3.3 Polysilicon - Industry cost: The cost showed a certain trend of change, with the average cost of the industry remaining stable at 38,810 yuan/ton [63]. - Silicon wafers: The weekly output decreased, and the inventory increased. The prices of various types of silicon wafers remained stable [17][69]. - Battery cells: The production and inventory of battery cells showed certain changes, and the prices of various types of battery cells remained mostly stable [17][72]. - Components: The monthly output decreased, and the domestic and European inventories decreased. The prices of various types of components remained stable [17][75].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, nickel prices rebounded, with manufacturers being somewhat reluctant to sell and traders remaining cautious in purchasing. Recently, some production capacities have been cut, leading to a shortage of certain supplies. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices are firm, and shipping fees remain flat. The RKAB quota in Indonesia for 2026 is expected to be 3.19 billion tons, indicating a loose supply outlook. Nickel iron prices show signs of stabilizing, with most remaining steady and a small portion still falling, and the cost - line center remains stable. Stainless steel inventories are rising, and demand remains weak. Refined nickel inventories are continuously at a high level, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles are good, the overall boost to nickel demand is limited [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average, and in the medium - to - long - term, it is advisable to short on rebounds. The main contract of stainless steel will be under downward pressure from the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [9][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Viewpoint and Strategy - **Shanghai Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices rebounded this week, manufacturers were reluctant to sell, and traders were cautious. Some production capacity cuts led to supply shortages. The industrial chain shows firm nickel ore prices, stable shipping fees, expected loose supply in Indonesia, stabilizing nickel iron prices, rising stainless steel inventories, high refined nickel inventories, and limited demand boost from new energy vehicles [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average and short on rebounds in the medium - to - long - term. The main contract of stainless steel will be under downward pressure from the 20 - day moving average and operate weakly [9][10] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Industrial Chain Weekly Price Changes - Nickel ore prices remained stable, with no change in the prices of red clay nickel ore (CIF) NI1.5%, Fe30 - 35% and NI1.4%, Fe30 - 35% compared to last week. The price of battery - grade nickel sulfate decreased by 3.43%, while the price of electroplating - grade nickel sulfate remained unchanged. The prices of low - nickel iron and high - nickel iron in Shandong remained the same as last week. The prices of Shanghai electrolytic nickel, Shanghai Russian nickel, and Jinchuan's ex - factory price increased, while the price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly [13][14] 3.2.2 Nickel Ore Market Conditions - Nickel ore prices were stable, and shipping fees were flat. As of November 28, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China was 14.8733 million wet tons, a decrease of 0.83% from the previous period. In October 2025, nickel ore imports decreased by 23.41% month - on - month and increased by 10.97% year - on - year. The Philippines' ore output was smooth this week, downstream nickel enterprises had the expectation of production cuts, and the price of Indonesian ore decreased slightly [17] 3.2.3 Electrolytic Nickel Market Conditions - Nickel prices rebounded, and manufacturers were reluctant to sell. In the long - term, the supply and demand of electrolytic nickel will continue to increase, but the oversupply pattern will not change. The substitution of ternary batteries in the new energy industry chain is becoming more obvious, and the growth of nickel demand is slowing down. In October 2025, China's refined nickel production decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The import and export volumes of refined nickel also changed. The LME and Shanghai nickel inventories increased [22][26][30] 3.2.4 Nickel Iron Market Conditions - Nickel iron prices stopped falling and remained flat. In October 2025, China's nickel pig iron production increased month - on - month and decreased year - on - year. The import volume of nickel iron decreased month - on - month and increased year - on - year. The inventory of nickel iron in October was 209,100 physical tons, equivalent to 19,800 nickel tons [42][47] 3.2.5 Stainless Steel Market Conditions - The price of 304 stainless steel decreased slightly this week. In October, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.4267 million tons, and the inventory increased. The import volume of stainless steel was 124,100 tons, and the export volume was 358,100 tons [59][63] 3.2.6 New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales - In October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 21.1% and 20% respectively. From January to October, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year growth of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. In October, the production and sales of power and other batteries increased, and the cumulative installed capacity of domestic power batteries from January to October also increased [74] 3.3 Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price rebounded and returned to the vicinity of the 20 - day moving average, being suppressed by the moving average. The positions decreased significantly, and short - selling funds took profits. The MACD indicator showed a golden cross, with a certain upward possibility but limited upside space [80]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The global sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 25/26 season, with different institutions having varying estimates of the surplus volume. The domestic sugar market shows a situation where consumption is good, and the tariff on syrups has increased. However, the increase in global sugar production and the opening of the import profit window due to the decline in foreign sugar prices pose negative impacts. The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar is expected to have limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract, with a short - term technical rebound possible but with limited strength, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [4][5][7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day's Review No content related to the previous day's review is provided. 3.2 Daily Hints - **Fundamentals**: Multiple institutions predict a surplus in the global sugar market in the 25/26 season, with estimates ranging from 100 to 740 million tons. In the 24/25 season by the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6%. In October 2025, China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons, which is bearish [4]. - **Basis**: The spot price in Liuzhou is 5610, with a basis of 283 (for the 05 contract), showing a premium over futures, which is bullish [6]. - **Inventory**: As of the end of August in the 24/25 season, the industrial inventory was 116 million tons, which is neutral [6]. - **Market Chart**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish [6]. - **Main Position**: The net short position is decreasing, and the main trend is bearish, which is bearish [6]. - **Expectation**: The foreign sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic Zhengzhou sugar has limited follow - up increases. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, trading is recommended to shift to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the strength may be limited, mainly in a low - level sideways consolidation [5]. 3.3 Today's Focus No content related to today's focus is provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Sugar Supply and Demand in 25/26 Season**: Different institutions have different forecasts. ISO predicts a surplus of 163 million tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 277 million tons, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 740 million tons, and Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 420 million tons [34]. - **Domestic Sugar Production and Sales in 24/25 Season**: By the end of August 2025, the national cumulative sugar production was 1116.21 million tons, cumulative sugar sales were 1000 million tons, and the sales rate was 89.6% [4]. - **Domestic Sugar Import in October 2025**: China imported 75 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 21 million tons, and the total import of syrups and premixes was 11.55 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.05 million tons [4]. - **Domestic Sugar Market Data**: The national reserve inventory is about 700 million tons, the import quota is 194.5 million tons. The domestic sugar spot sales average price is around 5700. The domestic sugar supply - demand balance sheet shows a gap, and the medium - to - long - term gap is decreasing [9]. 3.5 Position Data No content related to position data is provided.

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - **For Soybean Meal (M2601)**: The price is expected to oscillate between 3040 and 3100. The short - term trend is influenced by the US soybean market. Although China's purchase of US soybeans supports the short - term US soybean price, uncertainties remain in the purchase volume and the US soybean harvest weather. Domestically, the high arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the current situation of demand and inventory lead to a short - term oscillatory pattern [9]. - **For Soybeans (A2601)**: The price is expected to fluctuate between 4060 and 4160. The short - term trend is affected by the US soybean market, the cost of imported soybeans, and the supply - demand situation of domestic soybeans. The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price, while the high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in domestic soybean production suppress the upward movement [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Hints - Not provided in the given content 2. Recent News - The preliminary agreement in the China - US tariff negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans, but uncertainties remain in China's purchase volume and US soybean weather. The US soybean market is oscillating strongly above the 1000 - point mark in the short term [13]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China decreased in November, and the soybean inventory of oil mills also declined from the high level in November. The soybean meal market has returned to an oscillatory pattern in the short term [13]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to low expectations for pig replenishment, weakening the demand for soybean meal in November and suppressing the price [13]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills remains at a relatively high level. The soybean meal market will maintain an oscillatory pattern in the short term, awaiting further guidance on US soybean production and the follow - up of the China - US trade negotiation [13]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors Soybean Meal - **Bullish Factors**: The preliminary agreement in the China - US trade negotiation is short - term positive for US soybeans; the soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills is not under pressure; there are still uncertainties in the weather of US and South American soybean - producing areas [14]. - **Bearish Factors**: The total arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained relatively high in November; under normal weather conditions, South American soybeans are expected to have a bumper harvest [15]. Soybeans - **Bullish Factors**: The cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean price; the expected increase in domestic soybean demand supports the price [16]. - **Bearish Factors**: The bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased purchase of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppresses the price [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Global Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, and other data of soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are presented, showing the overall supply - demand situation of global soybeans during this period [33]. - **Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The harvest area, output, import volume, and other data of domestic soybeans from 2015 to 2024 are provided, reflecting the domestic supply - demand situation [34]. - **Soybean Planting and Harvest Progress**: The planting and harvest progress of soybeans in Argentina, the US, and Brazil from 2023 to 2026 are detailed, including the planting rate, harvest rate, and comparison with previous years and the five - year average [35][36][40]. - **USDA Monthly Supply - Demand Report**: The planting area, yield, output, and other data of soybeans in the US in the past six months are shown, as well as the output data of Brazilian and Argentine soybeans [46]. - **Imported Soybean Arrival Volume**: The monthly arrival volume of imported soybeans from 2020 to 2025 is presented, indicating that the arrival volume decreased from the high level in November 2025, but the overall year - on - year increase [49]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the given content

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term trend is affected by soybean meal and will maintain a range - bound pattern. The current situation is neutral. The basis is positive, the inventory is at a low level and decreasing, the price is below the 20 - day moving average, the main long positions are decreasing, and the market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - Rapeseed meal RM2601 fluctuates in the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is waiting for the final result of the anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports. The short - term is affected by soybean meal and maintains a range - bound pattern [9]. 3.2 Recent News - Domestic aquaculture has entered the off - season after the long holiday, with short - term supply expected to be tight and demand decreasing, suppressing the market. Canadian rapeseed is in the harvesting stage, but China - Canada trade issues reduce short - term export and domestic supply expectations. China's preliminary anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is established, and a 75.8% import deposit is levied. The final result is still uncertain. Global rapeseed production is increasing this year, especially in Canada. The Russia - Ukraine conflict continues, and the future geopolitical conflict may rise, supporting commodities [11]. 3.3 Multi - empty Concerns - Positive factors: China's preliminary anti - dumping determination on Canadian rapeseed imports and the low inventory pressure of oil mills. Negative factors: The domestic rapeseed meal demand is entering the off - season, and the final result of the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed imports is still uncertain, with a small probability of reconciliation. The current main logic is that the market focuses on domestic aquaculture demand and the expectation of the tariff war on Canadian rapeseed [12]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - From November 20th to 28th, the average transaction price of soybean meal was around 3000 - 3100, and the average transaction price of rapeseed meal was around 2500 - 2600. The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian fluctuated between 2510 - 2570. The rapeseed meal futures price also fluctuated. The rapeseed meal inventory was 1.75 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.78% and a year - on - year decrease of 20.45%. The import of rapeseed in November has no shipping schedule forecast, and the import cost is affected by tariffs. The inventory of rapeseed in oil mills is at a low level, and the rapeseed meal inventory is also low. The rapeseed processing volume in oil mills remains at zero [9][13][15]. 3.5 Position Data - Not provided in the content 3.6 Rapeseed Meal Views and Strategies - The rapeseed meal RM2601 will fluctuate in the range of 2420 - 2480. The market is affected by the uncertainty of the final anti - dumping ruling on Canadian rapeseed imports and the improvement of China - Canada trade relations rumors, and will return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. Attention should be paid to subsequent developments [9].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-12-01甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：后期甲醇市场或区域分化显著，整体呈现出南强北弱的格局。内地方面，随着久泰甲醇装置重启，后期烯 烃需求预期缩量，产区供需格局预期转弱，西北甲醇后续上涨动力受限。而销区来看，需求端增量逻辑明确：阳煤烯烃 计划12月初重启，联泓新建烯烃项目预计12月上旬开车；同时，港口与河南至鲁北套利空间关闭后，销区本地供应补充 受限，供需偏紧格局将进一步凸显，南方销区价格支撑力较强，有望持续强于北方产区。港口方面，12月进口船期比11 月有明显增量，鉴于后续密集的进口到港船期和临近交割月巨大的仓单和现货压力，暂时对本轮甲醇涨势持 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（11.24-11.28） 大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花继续震荡上行，短期走出反弹新高。 ICAC11月报：25/26年度产量2540万吨，消费2500万吨。USDA11月报：25/26年度产量2614.5 万吨，消费2588.3万吨，期末库存1653.2万吨。海关：10月纺织品服装出口222.62亿美元， 同比下降12.63%。10月份我国棉花进口9万吨，同比减少15.6%；棉纱进口14万吨，同比增加 16.7%。农村部11月25/26年度：产量660万吨，进口140万吨，消费740万吨，期末库存845万 吨。 对美出口关税降低10%，国内新棉采摘基 ...

燃料油周报 （11.24-11.28） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 周度观点 燃料油周评：上周，低硫燃料油市场维持疲软态势，高硫燃料油市场也走势承压，高硫报 收2467元/吨，周跌1.40%，低硫报收3025元/吨，周跌1.30%。 虽然东西方套利窗口关闭将减少未来几周抵达至新加坡的套利船货流入量，但目前新加坡 周边的含硫0.5%船用燃料油调油原料组分库存充足。且来自东南亚地区的低硫燃料油资源流入 量也在增加，新加坡地区将继续保持充足的库存。同时，下游市场仍供过于求，供应商在低硫 燃料油询盘和即期加油船位方面的竞争加剧，给码头交货估值带来了持续压力。 每周期货行情 | 品种 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, sugar prices stopped falling and rebounded, with near - month contracts rebounding stronger than far - month contracts, maintaining a low - level weak oscillation. Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period, ranging from 100,000 to 740,000 tons. In 2025, China's sugar production, sales, and import data showed certain changes. The external sugar has started a short - term rebound, but the domestic sugar's follow - up increase is limited. Considering that the 01 contract is approaching delivery, it is recommended to shift trading to the 05 contract. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the rebound strength may be weak, and the market will mainly consolidate at a low level [5]. - There are both bullish and bearish factors in the market. Bullish factors include good domestic consumption, increased syrup tariffs, and the use of sucrose in the new formula of American cola. Bearish factors include increased global sugar production, expected global supply surplus in the new year, and the opening of the import profit window due to the drop in external sugar prices [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review No information provided. 3.2 Daily Prompt - The report provides information on sugar futures prices, spot prices, spreads, and inventory. For example, the SR2601 contract price is 5400, the SR2605 contract price is 5327, and the SR2609 contract price is 5343. The national reserve sugar inventory is about 7 million tons, and the import quota is 1.945 million tons. In October 2025, China imported 750,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 210,000 tons, and imported 115,500 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 110,500 tons [8]. - Bullish factors: There is a medium - to - long - term supply - demand gap in the domestic sugar market, but the gap is decreasing. The average domestic sugar spot sales price is around 5700 yuan/ton. Since January 2025, the import tariff on syrup has increased, approaching the out - of - quota import tariff on raw sugar. The modification of the cola formula is long - term bullish for sugar. DATAGRO has lowered the expected global sugar surplus in the 25/26 period from 2.8 million tons to 1 million tons [8]. - Bearish factors: Multiple institutions predict a global sugar supply surplus in the 25/26 period, such as ISO predicting a surplus of 1.63 million tons, StoneX predicting a surplus of 2.77 million tons, and Czarnikow increasing the expected surplus to 7.4 million tons. Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production in the 25/26 season, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in production, a 1.4% increase in consumption, and a surplus of 11.397 million tons [8]. 3.3 Today's Focus No information provided. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Global Supply and Demand Forecast**: Different institutions have different forecasts for the global sugar supply and demand in the 25/26 period. ISO predicts a global sugar supply surplus of 1.63 million tons in November 2025; StoneX predicts a surplus of 2.77 million tons in September 2025; Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 6.2 million tons in August 2025 and later increases it to 7.4 million tons; Covrig Analytics predicts a surplus of 4.2 million tons in August 2025; and ISO's early prediction in August 2025 was a shortage of 230,000 tons [33]. - **China's Sugar Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 24/25 - 25/26 periods, China's sugar production, consumption, import, and other data have changed. The sugar production in the 25/26 period (November forecast) is expected to reach 11.7 million tons, the consumption is 15.7 million tons, the import is 5 million tons, and the balance change is 820,000 tons. The international sugar price is expected to be in the range of 14.0 - 18.5 cents/pound, and the domestic sugar price is expected to be in the range of 5500 - 6000 yuan/ton [35]. - **Import Cost of Processed Raw Sugar**: In late October 2025, the average price of raw sugar was about 14.23 cents/pound, and the out - of - quota import cost was about 5086 yuan/ton. The international sugar price has been falling, and the import profit is considerable [40]. 3.5 Position Data No information provided.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - term negative impacts on the oil market have been exhausted, and the geopolitical positive factors are not obvious. In the medium - to - long - term, there is a risk of oversupply. The SC2601 is expected to operate in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to wait and see. [3][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: The US and Ukraine held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, and OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a capacity assessment mechanism. Saudi Arabia may cut January crude prices for Asian buyers. The overall situation is neutral. [3] - **Basis**: On November 28, the spot prices of Oman and Qatar Marine crude oil were $64.62/barrel and $63.73/barrel respectively, with a basis of 38.48 yuan/barrel, indicating that the spot price is higher than the futures price, which is bullish. [3] - **Inventory**: The US API crude inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while the EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.055 million barrels). Cushing area inventory decreased by 6,800 barrels. Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels as of November 28, which is bullish. [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is below the moving average, which is bearish. [3] - **Main positions**: As of October 14, WTI crude oil main positions were long, with a decrease in long positions. As of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions were long, also with a decrease in long positions, which is bearish. [3] - **Expectation**: There was no significant progress in the US - Russia peace talks. The US increased pressure on Venezuela, raising geopolitical concerns. The OPEC+ meeting continued the previous resolution, and the short - term impact on oil prices is weak. The market is focusing on geopolitical conflicts. Military action against Venezuela may boost oil prices in the short term. [3] 3.2 Recent News - OPEC+ agreed to maintain the 2026 oil production quota and establish a mechanism to evaluate member countries' maximum production capacity. Eight OPEC+ countries will suspend production increases in January - March 2026 due to seasonal reasons. [5] - US President Trump tried to negotiate with Venezuelan President Maduro, but the negotiation failed. Trump announced the closure of Venezuela's airspace, and the US military is on standby. Military action may start soon. [5] - US and Ukrainian officials held talks on a peace agreement with Russia, claiming the talks were productive, and the US Secretary of State is optimistic about the progress. [5] 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish factors**: Sanctions on Russia are approaching, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year. [6] - **Bearish factors**: The situation in the Middle East is easing, institutions have a consistent expectation of oil oversupply, and there may be a new meeting and negotiation between the US and Russia. [6] - **Market driver**: Short - term negative impacts are exhausted, geopolitical positive factors are not obvious, and there is a risk of oversupply in the medium - to - long - term. [6] 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil changed. Brent crude oil rose by 0.74 to $62.54 (a 1.20% increase), WTI crude oil rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase), SC crude oil fell by 4.60 to 442.8 (a 1.03% decrease), and Oman crude oil fell by 0.47 to $62.82 (a 0.74% decrease). [7] - **Spot market**: The prices of various crude oils also changed. For example, UK Brent Dtd rose by 0.39 to $63.56 (a 0.62% increase), and WTI rose by 0.70 to $58.65 (a 1.21% increase). [9] - **Inventory data**: API and EIA inventory data showed different trends. API inventory decreased by 1.859 million barrels in the week ending November 21, while EIA inventory increased by 2.774 million barrels in the same period. [3][10][13] 3.5 Position Data - WTI and Brent crude oil main positions have shown a decrease in long positions recently. For example, as of November 25, Brent crude oil main positions decreased by 57,430 to 120,934. [3][18][19]