1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand mismatch leads to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [12]. - The cost of lithium carbonate production from some sources shows a downward trend, while the demand is expected to strengthen in the next month, and the inventory may be depleted [9]. - Lithium carbonate 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 69,800 - 72,520 [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - Supply side: Last week, the lithium carbonate output was 19,963 tons, a 2.80% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In August 2025, the output was 85,240 physical tons, and the predicted output for next month is 86,730 physical tons, a 1.75% increase. The import volume in August was 17,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 19,500 physical tons, a 14.71% increase [8][9]. - Demand side: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 95,442 tons, a 0.72% week - on - week increase, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 17,529 tons, a 0.65% week - on - week decrease. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be depleted [8][9]. - Cost side: The daily CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 73,410 yuan/ton, a 0.18% daily decrease, with a loss of 2,019 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 76,792 yuan/ton, a 0.74% daily decrease, with a loss of 7,378 yuan/ton. The cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, and the production income is negative. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt - lake end is 31,745 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins [9]. - Other aspects: The basis on September 12 shows that the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,450 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract is 1,290 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures. The overall inventory is 138,512 tons, a 1.12% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average. The MA20 of the disk is downward, and the price of the 11 - contract closes below the MA20. The net position of the main force is short, and the short position decreases [9]. - Factors: Positive factors include manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene. Negative factors include the continuous high supply at the ore/salt - lake end with limited decline, and the lack of willingness of the power battery end to take delivery [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - side Data**: The weekly operating rate is 66.41%, unchanged from the previous value. The daily production cost of spodumene is 73,410 yuan/ton, a 0.19% decrease. The monthly processing cost of spodumene is 20,700 yuan/ton, a 4.49% increase. The daily production profit of spodumene is - 2,019 yuan/ton, a 14.65% decrease. The daily production cost of lithium mica is 76,792 yuan/ton, a 0.74% decrease. The monthly processing cost of lithium mica is 35,460 yuan/ton, a 0.45% increase. The daily production profit of lithium mica is - 7,378 yuan/ton, a 2.45% increase. The monthly total output of lithium carbonate is 85,240 tons, a 4.55% increase. The monthly import volume of lithium concentrate is 576,138 tons, a 34.73% increase [18]. - **Demand - side Data**: The monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate is 62%, a 5% increase. The monthly output is 316,400 tons, an 8.84% increase. The monthly export volume of lithium iron phosphate is 2,741,411 kg, a 34.94% increase. The weekly inventory is 95,442 tons, a 0.72% increase. The monthly output of ternary precursors shows different growth rates for different types. The monthly output of ternary materials also shows different growth rates for different types. The monthly power battery loading volume is 62,500 GWh, an 11.81% increase [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply side's production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, while demand recovery is at a low level and cost support has weakened slightly. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [6][7]. - For polysilicon, the short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. It is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. - The main bullish factors are cost increase support and manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, while the main bearish factors are the slow recovery of post - holiday demand and the strong supply and weak demand of downstream polysilicon. The main logic is that the supply - demand mismatch due to capacity mismatch is difficult to change [11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Views Industrial Silicon - Supply: Last week's supply was 90,000 tons, unchanged from the previous week [6]. - Demand: Last week's demand was 78,000 tons, a 3.70% decrease from the previous week. Demand remains sluggish. Polysilicon inventory is 219,000 tons (low), silicon wafers and battery cells are in a loss state, and components are profitable. Organic silicon inventory is 73,200 tons (high), with a production profit of - 82 yuan/ton, and a comprehensive operating rate of 72.71% (unchanged from the previous week and lower than the historical average). Aluminum alloy ingot inventory is 70,800 tons (high), with an import loss of 140 yuan/ton, and the recycled aluminum operating rate is 55.5%, a 0.36% increase from the previous week (low) [6]. - Cost: In Xinjiang, the production loss of sample oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 3237 yuan/ton, and the cost support during the wet season has weakened [6]. - Basis: On September 12, the spot price of non - oxygen - passing silicon in East China was 9000 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 255 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [6]. - Inventory: Social inventory is 539,000 tons, a 0.37% increase from the previous week; sample enterprise inventory is 173,950 tons, a 1.84% increase; and the inventory of major ports is 119,000 tons, a 1.71% increase [6]. - Disk: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [6]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position has decreased [7]. - Expectation: The supply - side production schedule has increased and is near the historical average, demand recovery is at a low level, and cost support has increased slightly. Industrial silicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 8610 - 8880 [7]. Polysilicon - Supply: Last week's production was 31,200 tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week. The production schedule for September is predicted to be 126,700 tons, a 3.79% decrease from the previous month [9]. - Demand: Last week's silicon wafer production was 13.88GW, a 0.72% increase from the previous week, and the inventory was 165,500 tons, a 1.78% decrease. Currently, silicon wafer production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 57.53GW, a 2.73% increase from the previous month. In August, battery cell production was 58.27GW, a 0.13% increase from the previous month. Last week, the inventory of external - sales battery cell factories was 4.62GW, a 40.84% decrease. Currently, production is in a loss state. The production schedule for September is 60.04GW, a 3.03% increase. In August, component production was 49.2GW, a 4.45% increase from the previous month, and the expected production for September is 50.3GW, a 2.23% increase. The domestic monthly inventory is 24.76GW, a 51.73% decrease, and the European monthly inventory is 28.1GW, a 5.70% decrease. Currently, component production is profitable [9]. - Cost: The average industry cost of N - type polysilicon is 35,620 yuan/ton, and the production profit is 14,430 yuan/ton [9]. - Basis: On September 12, the price of N - type dense material was 50,050 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was - 2060 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures [9]. - Inventory: The weekly inventory is 219,000 tons, a 3.79% increase from the previous week, and it is at a historical low [9]. - Disk: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closes above MA20 [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net long, and the long position has decreased [9]. - Expectation: The short - term production schedule on the supply side will decrease, but it is expected to recover in the medium term. The demand side shows continuous recovery, and cost support remains stable. Polysilicon 2511 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 52580 - 54640 [9]. 2. Market Overview Industrial Silicon - Futures prices of different contracts show various changes, with some rising and some falling. For example, the 01 - contract price of non - oxygen - passing 553 silicon in East China is 9095 yuan/ton, a 0.06% increase from the previous value [15]. - Inventory data shows that most inventories, including social inventory, sample enterprise inventory, and major port inventory, have increased to varying degrees [15]. Polysilicon - The prices of various types of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are mostly stable, with only a few showing slight increases or decreases. For example, the daily price of N - type 182mm silicon wafers (130μm) is 1.28 yuan/piece, unchanged from the previous value [17]. - The production and inventory of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components also show different trends. For example, the weekly production of silicon wafers is 12.9GW, a 5.74% increase from the previous week, and the inventory is 26.5GW, a 22.06% decrease [17]. 3. Price and Basis Trends - The price and basis trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon are presented through charts, showing historical price changes and the relationship between spot and futures prices [19][23]. 4. Inventory Trends - Industrial silicon inventory includes交割库及港口库存, sample enterprise inventory, and registered warehouse receipts, all of which show certain trends of change over time [26]. - Polysilicon inventory also shows different trends, with the total inventory showing a certain increase [17]. 5. Production and Capacity Utilization Trends - The production and capacity utilization of industrial silicon in different regions, such as Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan, show different trends over time [28][30]. - The monthly production of industrial silicon by specification also shows different trends [29]. 6. Cost Trends - The cost and profit trends of industrial silicon in sample regions, such as Sichuan 421, Yunnan 421, and Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553, are presented through charts [36]. 7. Supply - Demand Balance Tables - The weekly and monthly supply - demand balance tables of industrial silicon show the relationship between production, import, export, consumption, and balance over different time periods [38][41]. - The monthly supply - demand balance table of polysilicon also shows the relationship between supply, import, export, consumption, and balance [66]. 8. Downstream Trends Organic Silicon - The price, production, import - export, and inventory trends of DMC and its downstream products, such as 107 glue, silicone oil, raw rubber, and D4, are presented [44][46][50]. Aluminum Alloy - The price, supply, inventory, production, and operating rate trends of aluminum alloy, as well as the demand trends in the automotive and wheel - hub industries, are presented [53][56][57]. Polysilicon - The cost, price, inventory, production, and supply - demand balance trends of polysilicon, as well as the trends of its downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, photovoltaic components, photovoltaic accessories, and component cost - profit, are presented [63][66][69]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The soybean futures of the United States are oscillating and rising. After the USDA report on September 9th slightly lowered the yield per unit of US soybeans, the futures are oscillating above the 1000-point mark, waiting for further guidance on the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the growth weather in US soybean - producing areas. Domestic soybean meal is oscillating and falling back. Supported by recent good demand and technical oscillatory consolidation, the high arrival volume of imported soybeans in August and the discount of spot prices are suppressing the upward height of the futures. In the short term, it may enter an oscillatory and slightly stronger pattern. The soybean meal M2601 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3040 - 3100 [8]. - Domestic soybeans are oscillating in a narrow range, driven by US soybeans and technical oscillatory consolidation. The high arrival volume of imported soybeans and the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans are suppressing the futures. In the short term, it is affected by the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations and the peak season of imported soybean arrivals. The soybean A2511 is expected to oscillate in the range of 3900 - 4000 [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Tips No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The progress of China - US tariff negotiations is short - term positive for US soybeans. With relatively good recent weather in US soybean - producing areas, the US futures are oscillating and rising under the influence of relatively positive data from the USDA report. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on the growth and harvest of US soybeans, the arrival of imported soybeans, and the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China remained high in August, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills entered a relatively high level in August. With the weather of US soybeans and China - US trade negotiations entering a critical period, affected by the relatively positive data from the August USDA report and the rise of rapeseed meal, soybean meal is oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term [12]. - The decrease in domestic pig - farming profits has led to a low expectation of pig replenishment. The recent recovery of soybean meal demand supports the price expectation of soybean meal. Coupled with the uncertainty of China - US trade negotiations, soybean meal has returned to an oscillatory pattern within a range [12]. - The soybean meal inventory of domestic oil mills continues to rise. Affected by the possibility of weather speculation in US soybean - producing areas and the variables of the China - US tariff war, soybean meal is oscillating and slightly stronger in the short term, waiting for the clear output of South American soybeans and further guidance on the follow - up of the China - US tariff war [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors For Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: slow customs clearance of imported soybeans; relatively low current inventory of domestic oil mills' soybean meal; variable weather in US soybean - producing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: high total arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans in September; the end of the Brazilian soybean harvest and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. For Soybeans - Bullish factors: the cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures; the expected recovery of domestic soybean demand supports the price expectation of domestic soybeans [14]. - Bearish factors: the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and China's increased procurement of Brazilian soybeans; the expected increase in the production of new - season domestic soybeans suppressing the price expectation of beans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Global soybean supply - demand balance sheet: from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and total supply of global soybeans generally showed an upward trend, while the inventory - to - consumption ratio fluctuated between 17.69% - 23.05% [32]. - Domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheet: from 2015 to 2024, the harvest area, output, and import volume of domestic soybeans showed certain fluctuations, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio was between 18.41% - 23.79% [33]. 5. Position Data No relevant content provided.

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - This week, nickel prices showed strong performance, but spot transactions remained sluggish. In the industrial chain, nickel ore prices remained stable, and Indonesia's sudden inspection of nickel mines brought positive news to the ore end. Nickel iron prices rose steadily, and the cost line shifted upward. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline, indicating good de - stocking during the "Golden September and Silver October" period. Although the production and sales data of new energy vehicles were good, the loading of ternary batteries still decreased, having limited impact on nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply situation remains unchanged [8]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in a wide - range shock, while the main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Nickel Viewpoint**: Nickel prices were strong this week, but spot transactions were inactive. The long - term oversupply pattern persists. The inspection of nickel mines in Indonesia may introduce uncertainties [8]. - **Operation Strategy**: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will have a wide - range shock, and the main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [9][10]. 3.2. Fundamental Analysis - **Price Changes in the Industrial Chain**: Red soil nickel ore prices remained unchanged, while battery - grade nickel sulfate prices increased by 0.36%. Low - grade nickel iron prices in Shandong rose by 1.45%, and high - grade nickel iron prices rose by 0.53%. Shanghai electrolytic nickel prices increased by 1.19%, and 304 stainless steel prices remained flat [13][14]. - **Nickel Ore Market**: Nickel ore prices and freight rates were stable. As of September 11, 2025, the total nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 5.96%. In July 2025, nickel ore imports increased by 15.16% month - on - month. This week, nickel ore transactions were mainly wait - and - see. Indonesia's supply was generally loose, but there was news of a sudden inspection on Friday [17]. - **Electrolytic Nickel Market**: Nickel prices fluctuated strongly, but transactions were sluggish. In the long run, the supply and demand will both increase, but the oversupply situation will not change. In August 2025, China's refined nickel production increased by 1.50% month - on - month. LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased [22][23][38]. - **Nickel Iron Market**: Nickel iron prices rose steadily. In August 2025, China's nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.19% month - on - month. In July 2025, nickel iron imports decreased by 19.7% month - on - month. In August, the nickel iron inventory was 218,900 physical tons [43][46][52]. - **Stainless Steel Market**: The price of 304 stainless steel remained unchanged. In August, stainless steel crude steel production was 3.3156 million tons. The latest stainless steel imports were 73,000 tons, and exports were 416,300 tons. As of September 12, the national stainless steel inventory decreased by 41,100 tons [58][62][68]. - **New Energy Vehicle Production and Sales**: In August, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 1.391 million and 1.395 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 27.4% and 26.8%. In August, the total production of power and other batteries was 139.6 GWh, and the power battery loading was 62.5 GWh, with the ternary battery loading accounting for 17.5% [73][76]. 3.3. Technical Analysis - From the daily K - line, the price fluctuated around the 20 - day moving average. The main force was still dominated by short positions. MACD showed alternating red and green bars, indicating no clear direction. KDJ started to rebound from oversold levels. Overall, the price fluctuated within a small range, mainly in a shock pattern [79]. 3.4. Industrial Chain Summary - The impact of each link on nickel prices: Nickel ore was neutral to bullish, nickel iron was neutral, refined nickel was neutral to bearish, stainless steel was neutral, and new energy was neutral [82]. - Trading strategy: The main contract of Shanghai nickel will operate in a wide - range shock, and the main contract of stainless steel will fluctuate widely around the 20 - day moving average [84].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports have raised geopolitical concerns, providing short - term support for oil prices. Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia if European countries stop importing Russian oil also boosts oil prices in the short term. However, the medium - to - long - term outlook remains pessimistic as institutional monthly reports warn of crude oil supply surplus in the second half of the year. Short - term oil prices are expected to trade in the 482 - 492 range, and long - term long positions should be held for observation [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: Sino - US talks in Madrid are unlikely to achieve substantial breakthroughs. Ukraine attacked Russia's Primorsk port. The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week, but investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. Overall, the fundamentals are neutral [3]. - **Basis**: On September 12, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $69.76 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude oil was $69.23 per barrel. The basis was $42.12 per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, indicating a bullish signal [3]. - **Inventory**: US API crude oil inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, against an expected decrease of 1.869 million barrels. EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels, against an expected decrease of 1.04 million barrels. Cushing area inventory decreased by 0.365 million barrels in the week ending September 5. As of September 12, the Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 5.721 million barrels. Overall, the inventory situation is bearish [3]. - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is flat, and the price is near the average, showing a neutral signal [3]. - **Main Position**: As of September 9, both WTI and Brent crude oil main positions were long, but the number of long positions decreased, indicating a bearish signal [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Trump said he is ready to impose major sanctions on Russia if all NATO countries stop buying Russian oil. He believes this can help end the war and save lives [5]. - The market is certain that the Fed will cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points this week. However, investors have priced in a series of rate cuts until 2026. The market expects the Fed to convey a dovish tone, but due to inflation and tariff impacts, Fed Chairman Powell and other officials may signal that investors are too radical, which could lead to asset price re - pricing [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil tankers and ports raise geopolitical concerns, and Trump's statement about sanctions on Russia provides short - term support for oil prices [3]. - **Bearish Factors**: Institutional monthly reports have a weak outlook for the future, and the trade relationship between the US and other economies remains tense [6]. - **Market Drivers**: In the short term, geopolitical conflicts are decreasing, and the risk of trade tariffs is rising. In the medium - to - long - term, supply will increase after the peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, SC crude oil, and Oman crude oil are $66.99, $62.69, 479.2 yuan, and $68.59 respectively, with changes of $0.62 (0.93%), $0.32 (0.51%), - 9.50 yuan (- 1.94%), and - $2.34 (- 3.30%) compared to the previous values [7]. - **Spot Market**: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oils are $67.81, $62.69, $69.76, $63.72, and $69.64 respectively, with changes of $1.40 (2.11%), $0.32 (0.51%), - $1.12 (- 1.58%), - $1.11 (- 1.71%), and - $1.17 (- 1.65%) compared to the previous values [9]. - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventory data show fluctuations. API inventory increased by 1.25 million barrels in the week ending September 5, and EIA inventory increased by 3.939 million barrels in the same period [3][10][13]. 3.5 Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 9, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds was 81,844, a decrease of 20,584 compared to the previous period [16]. - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of September 9, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds was 209,578, a decrease of 41,476 compared to the previous period [17].

周度观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 燃料油周报 （9.8-9.12） 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号： Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 周度观点 2 期现价格 3 基本面数据 4 5 价差数据 库存数据 燃料油周评：上周，国际原油整体震荡运行，燃料油价格震荡较大，高硫报收2797元/吨，周涨1.38%， 低硫报收3348元/吨，周跌1.30%。 低硫燃料油呈震荡下跌走势，高硫燃料油则震荡上涨。从基本面看，低硫燃料油市场结构走弱，高硫燃 料油市场稍有支撑。具体来看：市场消息人士称，尽管9月西方至亚洲的低硫燃料油套利货量环比下降，但由 于即期供应充足导致码头船燃需求持续疲软，亚洲低硫燃料油市场短期内仍将承压。预计9月新加坡将从西方 接收约240-250万吨低硫燃料油，低于8月的约270-280万吨。 高硫方面， ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. With the approaching end of the consumption peak season and average market sales, cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making it difficult for futures to rise in the short term. It is expected to maintain a weak and volatile pattern. - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. - There are both positive and negative factors. Positives include good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. Negatives include increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [5][6][7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Previous Day Review - The main sugar futures contract 01 rebounded briefly this week. The consumption peak season is approaching its end, market sales are average, and cheap imported sugar is impacting prices, making short - term futures price increases difficult. The ISO predicts a global sugar supply shortage of 23.1 tons in the 25/26 season, a significant reduction from the previous forecast. Conab estimates the sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 season to be 4060 tons, a 3.1% decrease from the previous forecast. As of the end of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season in China was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sugar sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5] 3.2 Daily Tips - International raw sugar is oscillating around 16 cents, and the domestic and international trends are converging. The domestic futures main contract 01 has support around the 5500 mark. After continuous declines, it is expected to consolidate in the range of 5500 - 5600. [6] 3.3 Today's Focus - Positive factors: Good domestic consumption, reduced inventory, increased syrup tariffs, and the change in the US cola formula to use sucrose. - Negative factors: Increased global sugar production, a global supply surplus in the new year, the opening of the import profit window due to the oscillation of foreign sugar prices around 16 cents per pound, and intensified import impact. [7] 3.4 Fundamental Data - Multiple institutions have different forecasts for the 25/26 global sugar supply and demand situation. For example, Czarnikow predicts a surplus of 750 tons, Dataro predicts a surplus of 153 tons, StoneX predicts a surplus of 304 tons, Green Pool predicts a 5.3% increase in global sugar production to 1.991 billion tons, and USDA predicts a 4.7% increase in global sugar production and a 1.4% increase in consumption, with a surplus of 1139.7 tons. - In terms of domestic data, as of July 2025, the cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 season was 1116.21 tons, cumulative sales were 954.98 tons, and the sales rate was 85.6%. In July 2025, China imported 74 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 32 tons, and imported 15.98 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year - on - year decrease of 6.85 tons. [5][9] 3.5 Position Data No position data information is provided in the report.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - Cotton prices weakened in a volatile manner this week, with the main contract oscillating below 14,000. The start of the "Golden September" was not ideal, leading to a decline in market confidence. There are significant differences in the market during the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, and the textile and clothing export data in August was not satisfactory. With new cotton about to be listed, the hedging pressure has increased [5][6]. - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include a reduction in previous Sino - US mutual tariffs and a year - on - year decrease in commercial inventory, along with an enhanced expectation for the consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October". Negative factors include the postponement of trade negotiations, high current export tariffs to the US, a general decline in foreign trade orders, increased inventory, and the upcoming large - scale listing of new cotton [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - Cotton prices weakened in a volatile manner this week, with the main contract oscillating below 14,000. The start of the "Golden September" was not ideal, leading to a decline in market confidence. The ICAC September report predicted a 2025/26 annual output of 25.5 million tons and consumption of 25.5 million tons. The USDA September report predicted a 2025/26 annual output of 25.622 million tons, consumption of 25.872 million tons, and an ending inventory of 15.925 million tons. In August, textile and clothing exports were $26.54 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%, and 110,000 tons of cotton yarn, a year - on - year increase of 15.38%. The Ministry of Agriculture predicted a 2025/26 annual output of 6.25 million tons, imports of 1.4 million tons, consumption of 7.4 million tons, and an ending inventory of 8.23 million tons [5]. 2. Daily Prompt - During the "Golden September and Silver October" peak season, there are significant differences in the market. The textile and clothing export data in August was not satisfactory. New cotton is about to be listed, increasing the hedging pressure. The main 01 contract fell below 14,000, oscillating within the range of 13,800 - 14,000 during the day [6]. 3. Today's Focus No relevant information provided. 4. Fundamental Data - **USDA Global Supply and Demand Forecast (September)**: In 2025/26, the total global output is expected to be 25.622 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 230,000 tons; consumption is expected to be 25.872 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 184,000 tons; and the ending inventory is expected to be 15.925 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 168,000 tons [10][11]. - **ICAC Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet**: In the 2025/26 annual, the global output is 2.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 40,000 tons (+1.6%); consumption is 2.56 million tons, basically unchanged; the ending inventory is 1.71 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26,000 tons (+1.6%); and the global trade volume is 970,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 36,000 tons (+3.9%) [12]. - **Ministry of Agriculture Data**: In 2025/26, the output is 6.25 million tons, imports are 1.4 million tons, consumption is 7.4 million tons, and the ending inventory is 8.23 million tons. The average domestic cotton 3128B price is expected to be in the range of 15,000 - 17,000 yuan/ton, and the Cotlook A index is expected to be in the range of 75 - 100 cents/pound [14]. 5. Position Data No relevant information provided.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai zinc futures show a volatile rebound, closing with a positive line, an enlarged trading volume, and both long and short positions reducing, with more long - positions cut. The short - term market may experience a volatile consolidation. Technically, the price is below the long - term moving average with weak support. The short - term KDJ indicator is rising and operating in the strong zone, while the trend indicator is falling, with both long and short forces increasing and starting to stalemate. The operation suggestion for Shanghai zinc ZN2510 is a volatile consolidation [2][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - In April 2025, global zinc plate production was 1153000 tons and consumption was 1130200 tons, with a supply surplus of 22700 tons. From January to April, production was 4451400 tons and consumption was 4507900 tons, with a supply shortage of 56500 tons. From January to April, global zinc ore production was 4040600 tons, which is a bullish signal [2] - The basis is - 35 with the spot price at 22270, indicating a neutral situation [2] - On September 12, LME zinc inventory decreased by 100 tons to 50525 tons, and SHFE zinc inventory warrants increased by 980 tons to 45905 tons, showing a neutral situation [2] - The previous day, Shanghai zinc showed a volatile rebound, closing above the 20 - day moving average which is downward, indicating a neutral situation [2] - The main net position is long, but long positions are decreasing, which is a bullish signal [2] Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market - On September 12, in the zinc futures market, different delivery months had various price changes. For example, the contract 2510 had a previous settlement of 22225, an opening price of 22250, a high of 22360, a low of 22180, and a closing price of 22305, with a price increase of 80 [3] Domestic Main Spot Market - On September 12, in the domestic main spot market, the price of zinc concentrate in Linzhou was 16860 yuan/ton with an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the price of zinc ingot in Aoding was 22270 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized sheet in China was 4038 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price of galvanized pipe in China was 4447 yuan/ton with a decrease of 3 yuan/ton; the price of zinc alloy in Ningbo was 22780 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc powder in Changsha was 27450 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the price of zinc oxide in Taizhou was 20600 yuan/ton with no change; the price of secondary zinc oxide in Linquwaicun was 7857 yuan/ton with no change [4] National Main Market Zinc Ingot Inventory - From September 1 to September 11, the total inventory of zinc ingots in the main domestic markets increased from 133300 tons to 144000 tons. Compared with September 4, it increased by 5500 tons, and compared with September 8, it increased by 4200 tons [5] Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report - On September 12, in the zinc warrant report, different regions and warehouses had different warrant quantities and changes. For example, in Shanghai, the total warrant quantity was 50 tons with no change; in Guangdong, the total warrant quantity increased by 226 tons; in Tianjin, the total warrant quantity increased by 754 tons [6] LME Zinc Inventory Distribution - On September 12, the LME zinc inventory in Singapore decreased by 100 tons to 50425 tons, and the cancellation ratio was 34.61% [7] National Main City Zinc Concentrate Price - On September 12, in the national main cities, the price of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in different regions such as Jiyuan, Kunming, and Hechi all increased by 40 yuan/ton [8] National Market Zinc Ingot Smelter Price - On September 12, in the national market, the price of 0 zinc ingot from different smelters such as Hunan Xiuzhou Zhihai, Sanbianshisishidishiba, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan all increased by 50 yuan/ton [12] Domestic Refined Zinc Production in June 2025 - In June 2025, the planned production of refined zinc was 459700 tons, and the actual production was 471800 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11.67% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.36%. The capacity utilization rate was 87.10%, and the planned production for July was 470300 tons [14] Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee - On September 12, the zinc concentrate processing fees in different regions varied. For 50% - grade zinc concentrate, the fees in different regions such as HER THE, Hushidao, and Hechi were in the range of 3550 - 4200 yuan/metal ton, and the import processing fee for 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 85 - 105 dollars/thousand tons [16] Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking - For the contract zn2510 on September 12, in terms of trading volume, the top three were Guotai Junan, CITIC Futures, and Dongzheng Futures; in terms of long positions, the top three were Dongzheng Futures, Jianxin Futures, and CITIC Futures; in terms of short positions, the top three were CITIC Futures, Guotai Junan, and Dongzheng Futures [17]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 2025-09-15甲醇早报 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投 资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 每日提示 2 多空关注 3 基本面数据 4 检修状况 甲醇2601： 1、基本面：供需逻辑不同预计本周国内甲醇呈现区域性走势，整体或呈北强南弱走势。内地方面，产区烯烃需求明显 增量致使区域内甲醇供应紧张，供需紧平衡的利好驱动下，本周产区预计走高概率较大。销区方面，下游有节前备货需 求，以及运费仍有上涨空间，贸易商有惜售情绪，共同支撑下游到货价格走高。但套利空间打开后，港口货源可倒流内 地，制约销区甲醇价格上涨幅度。港口方面，伊朗10月缺气检修，且伊朗busher一套年产165万吨甲醇装置上周临时停 车，后续进口货源逐步减少，远月强预期；同时港口主力烯烃装置近期重启叠加十一假期前补库，需求跟 ...