70 [Table_Report] 东海观察 东海观察 | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |----------------------------|------------------------------------|--------------|-------|---------|-------|---------------------------------------------------------------|-------|-------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 图 1 M1、M2 同比增速 | | | | 图 2 | | 人民币贷款余额同比 | | | | - M1(货币):同比 | - M2(货币和准贷币):同比 | | | 300 - | | == 金融机构:人民币贷款余额 -- 金融机构:人民币贷款余额:同比 | | r 15 | | 30- | | -15 | | | | | | | | 25 20 | | - 14 ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |---------------------------|-------------------------------------|----------------|-------|---------|-------|-------|------------------------------|-------------------------------------------------------|------------| | | | | | | | | | | | | 图 1 M1、M2 同比增速 | | | | 图 2 | | | 人民币贷款余额同比 | | | | - M1(货币):同比 | - M2(货币和准货币):同比 | | | 300 - | | | = 会融机构:人民币贷款余额 一 | 一 金融机构:人民币贷款余额:同比 | r 15 | | | | | | | | | | | 14 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 30- 25 - 20 | ...

| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | |-------------------|-------|----------------------------|-------|---------|---------|-------|-------|-------------------------------------| | | | | | | | | | | | 图 1 | | 工业增加值当月同比增速数据 | | 图 2 | | | | 固定资产投资累计同比数据 | | 60- | | 工业增加值同比 | | 50 | | | | 房地产开发投资完成额:累计同比% | | 50 | | | | 40 | | | | 国定资产投资完成额:制造业:累计同比% | | 40 | | | | 30 | | | | 基建投资 (不含电力) 景 Halt % | | 30 | | | | 20 | | | | | | 20 10 | | | | 10 0 | | | | | | 0 -198/10 -20 -30 | 19/10 | 22/10 20 ...

Economic Overview - The US manufacturing PMI for May is reported at 50.9, indicating expansion, while the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI is at 47.4, showing a slight improvement[85] - US April CPI is at 3.4%, down from 3.5% in March, with core CPI at 3.6%, down from 3.8%[51] - China's April total import and export value is $512.56 billion, up 4.4% year-on-year, with exports at $292.45 billion, up 1.5%[100] Domestic Economic Trends - Fixed asset investment in China from January to April shows a year-on-year increase of 4.2%, down 0.3% from the previous quarter[4] - Consumer spending in China has grown by 4.1% year-on-year, but this is a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous quarter[4] - Real estate investment in China has decreased by 7.3% year-on-year, although the decline has narrowed compared to previous months[90] Market Dynamics - Domestic manufacturing investment has slightly declined, with industrial profits growing by 4.3% year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in corporate performance[10] - The construction sector shows signs of recovery, with new construction area down 12.3% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe than in previous months[90] - The overall supply of commodities in China is easing, with a decrease in production rates for various sectors, including construction materials and chemicals[27] Policy Implications - The Chinese government is implementing policies to stimulate the real estate market, including lowering mortgage rates and adjusting down payment requirements[93] - The People's Bank of China has announced a reduction in housing provident fund loan rates by 0.25 percentage points, effective from May 18[93] - Continued focus on infrastructure investment is expected to support economic recovery, with policies aimed at enhancing local government responsibilities in real estate development[5]

Economic Impact - The new round of real estate policies aims to stabilize and strengthen domestic economic development, reducing the drag from the real estate sector on the economy[70] - In 2023, real estate development investment reached CNY 110,913 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%, accounting for 21.8% of total fixed asset investment, down from 24.5% in 2022[70] - Real estate sales amounted to CNY 116,622 billion, a year-on-year decline of 6.5%, representing 9.3% of nominal GDP, down from 11.1% in 2022[70] Policy Measures - The central bank will establish a CNY 300 billion guarantee housing relending quota, which is below market expectations[48] - The minimum down payment ratio for first-time homebuyers has been adjusted to no less than 15%, and for second homes to no less than 25%, significantly lowering the purchasing threshold[41] - The government encourages local state-owned enterprises to acquire unsold residential properties at reasonable prices for use as affordable housing[41] Market Reactions - The new policies are expected to enhance market sentiment, boosting stock market risk appetite and stabilizing the RMB exchange rate, while negatively impacting the bond market[48] - The real estate policy is anticipated to stimulate demand for steel and other commodities, as it directly correlates with new construction activities[50] - The overall sentiment in the copper market is expected to improve due to anticipated increases in demand from the real estate sector, potentially driving copper prices higher[51]

请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 本报告由东海期货有限责任公司研究所团队完成，报告中信息均源于公开可获得资料。东海期货力 求报告内容的客观、公正，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建 议不会发生任何变更。报告中的观点、结论和建议等全部内容只提供给客户做参考之用，并不构成对客 户的投资建议，也未考虑个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，客户不应单纯依靠本报告而取代 个人的独立判断。在任何情况下，本公司不对任何人因使用本报告中的任何内容所导致的任何损失负任 何责任，交易者需自行承担风险。本报告版权仅为东海期货有限责任公司研究所所有，未经书面许可， 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制发布，如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为东海期货有限责 任公司。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 海 观 海 500 顾森 从业资格证号：F3082395 投资咨询证号：Z0018858 电话：021-68757223 邮箱：gus@qh168.com.cn 3月通胀同比回落，且不及市场预期。上游端受黑色建材等行业价格回落影响，PPI降幅小 幅扩大；3月份，节后需求放缓，加之供给较为充裕 ...

本报告由东海期货有限责任公司研究所团队完成，报告中信息均源于公开可获得资料。东海期货力 求报告内容的客观、公正，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建 议不会发生任何变更。报告中的观点、结论和建议等全部内容只提供给客户做参考之用，并不构成对客 户的投资建议，也未考虑个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要，客户不应单纯依靠本报告而取代 证监许可[2011]1771号 宏 前 顾森 从业资格证号：F3082395 投资咨询证号：Z0018858 电话：021-68757223 邮箱：gus@qh168.com.cn [table_main] 事件要点： 摘要： 进出口总额方面，3月进出口总额（以美元计）5008.12亿美元，同比-5.1%，前值为5.5%， 下降10.6%。其中与中国进行对外贸易经济体中，贸易总额排在首位的是东盟，贸易额848 亿美元，同比增长-5.36%，贸易占比16.94%；其次是欧盟，贸易额623亿美元，同比增长 -12.24%，贸易占比12.45%；第三是美国，贸易额505亿美元，同比增长-15.48%，贸易 占比10.09%；第四是韩国，贸易额281亿美元，同 ...

证监许可[2011]1771号 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN 1 / 5 请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 温有关；中长期贷款方面，3月居民中长期贷款同比少增，主要由于节后楼市整体销售低 迷，居民中长期贷款整体偏弱。3月企业贷款新增23400亿元，同比少增3600亿元；其中 短期贷款、中长期贷款分别为9800亿和16000亿元，同比分别少增1015亿元和4700亿元； 新增票据融资-2500亿元，同比多增2187亿元。企业部门中长期贷款虽然同比少增，但仍 旧处于高位，主要由于两会后政策刺激逐步落地以及节后5年期LPR下调带动企业中长期 贷款利率下行，进一步刺激企业融资需求。 HTTP://WWW.QH168.COM.CN2/5请务必仔细阅读正文后免责申明 图 1 M1、M2 同比增速 - M1(货币):同比 - M2(贷币和准货币):同比 30- r-15 - 14 25 - 13 20- - 12 15 - 11 - 10 10 g 5 .8 0 15/10 16/10 17/10 18/10 19/10 20/10 21/10 23/10 . 6 图 2 人民币贷款余额同比 300- r 1 ...

摘要： 用过程有望进一步加快。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可[2011]1771号 海 观 明道雨 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn 2月新增人民币贷款14500亿元，前值49200亿元。2月社会融资规模增量为 15211亿元，前值为65364亿元；2月末，社会融资规模存量为385.72万亿元，同比 增长9%，较上月下降0.5%。2月末，广义货币（M2）同比增长8.7%，预期8.8%， 前值8.7%，M2较上期持平，略不及市场预期。 70 分析师： 顾森 从业资格证号：F3082395 投资咨询证号：Z0018858 电话：021-68757223 邮箱：gus@qh168.com.cn 2月社会融资规模增量为15211亿元，前值为65364亿元；人民币贷款增加14500亿元，前 值49200亿元；M2同比增长8.7%，预期8.8%。中国112月M2增速保持平稳增长，意味着 资金供给整体维持合理水平，货币政策延续宽松格局；新增社融和信贷需求整体同比回落， 表明虽然当前社会信贷和融资需求有所放缓，宽信用 ...

| --- | --- | --- | |-------|-------------------------------------------------------------------|------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------| | | | | | | 2024年3月11日 | [Table_Title] 2月CPI同比超预期回升 ——宏观数据观察 | | | 分析师： | [table_main] 事件要点： | | | 明道雨 | 中国 2 月 CPI 同比增长 0.7% ，预期 0.4% ，前值 -0.8% ； 2 月 PPI 同比增长 -2.7% ， | | | 从业资格证号：F03092124 投资咨询证号：Z0018827 电话：021-68758120 | 预期 -2.5% ，前值 -2.5% 。 | | | 邮箱：mingdy@qh168.com.cn | 摘要： | | | 分析师： | 2 月通胀同比大幅回升，且高于市场预期。上游端受黑色等行业 ...