Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Report Date: June 25, 2025 [1] Group 2: Core Views on Oils Palm Oil - Production in the origin is expected to increase month-on-month, and the seasonal production increase is approaching, increasing the supply expectation. Although the domestic port inventory is currently at a low level, with the weakening of the origin's quotation, subsequent purchases are gradually emerging. On the consumption side, due to the current inverted price difference between soybean oil and palm oil, there is no incremental consumption, and the inventory is expected to increase and needs to find consumption by further narrowing the price difference [3]. Soybean Oil - On the supply side, as the purchased ships arrive at the port, the pressure is approaching, and the expected oil mill crushing is also rising. However, on the consumption side, due to the lack of incremental consumption to absorb the supply, the inventory is expected to enter an accumulation cycle. In the future, under the expectation of a double increase in the supply of palm oil and soybean oil, the price difference between soybean oil and palm oil may be repaired in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. Rapeseed Oil - Recently, due to the expected improvement in China - Canada relations, the premium of the market's policy - based trading has been hit. On the actual supply side, as the previously purchased rapeseed has arrived at the port, the coastal rapeseed inventory is gradually decreasing. The current supply of rapeseed oil is at a phased peak, and the expected marginal reduction speed will accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. On the consumption side, due to the policy premium of rapeseed oil, the price difference between rapeseed oil and soybean oil is always in an unfavorable range for rapeseed oil consumption, suppressing consumption. Rapeseed oil consumption also remains at the rigid - demand level. There is currently high - inventory pressure, but policy uncertainty provides support for the far - month [3]. Group 3: Oil Price Spreads Month - to - Month and Variety - to - Variety Spreads - P 1 - 5 is 114 yuan/ton, down 14; P 5 - 9 is - 118 yuan/ton, up 22; P 9 - 1 is 4 yuan/ton, down 8; Y - P 01 is - 424 yuan/ton, up 26; Y - P 05 is - 602 yuan/ton, up 48; Y - P 09 is - 376 yuan/ton, up 18; Y 1 - 5 is 292 yuan/ton, down 36; Y 5 - 9 is - 344 yuan/ton, up 52; Y 9 - 1 is 52 yuan/ton, down 16; Y/M 01 is 2.5735, down 1.86%; Y/M 05 is 2.7688, down 1.39%; Y/M 09 is 2.6177, down 2.17%; OI 1 - 5 is 168 yuan/ton, down 9; OI 5 - 9 is - 262 yuan/ton, up 2; OI 9 - 1 is 94 yuan/ton, up 7; OI/RM 01 is 3.9924, down 1.45%; OI/RM 05 is 3.92, down 1.14%; OI/RM 09 is 3.5958, down 1.72% [4] Group 4: Palm Oil Price Information - Palm oil 01 is 8338 yuan/ton, up 0.19%; Palm oil 05 is 8230 yuan/ton, up 0.27%; Palm oil 09 is 8344 yuan/ton, up 0.22%; BMD palm oil main contract is 3991 ringgit/ton, up 0.2%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8460 yuan/ton, down 20; Guangzhou 24 - degree basis is 154 yuan/ton, up 54; POGO is 382.072 US dollars/ton, down 1.168; International soybean oil - palm oil is 49.91 US dollars/ton, up 22.5 [6] Group 5: Soybean Oil Price Information - Soybean oil 01 is 7938 yuan/ton, down 1.27%; Soybean oil 05 is 7626 yuan/ton, down 0.87%; Soybean oil 09 is 7984 yuan/ton, down 1.45%; CBOT soybean oil main contract is 52.66 cents/pound, down 1.83%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8080 yuan/ton, down 20; Shandong first - grade soybean oil basis is 150 yuan/ton, up 16; BOHO (weekly) is 66.472 US dollars/barrel, down 10.7912; Domestic first - grade soybean oil - 24 - degree palm oil is - 320 yuan/ton, down 20 [12] Group 6: Oilseeds Market Analysis Imported Soybeans - In terms of purchases, the appreciation of the Brazilian real has strengthened the Brazilian quotation. Commercial purchases are concentrated in near - month Brazil, Argentina, and next - year Brazil. As it gradually enters the fourth - quarter purchase cycle, the purchase progress is slower than the same period last year. In terms of arrivals, 11.5 million tons are expected in July and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the third quarter is still abundant, and the supply gap in the fourth quarter depends on China - US relations [15]. Domestic Soybean Meal - The supply - side pressure is still the main factor suppressing the spot price. As the soybean meal 07 contract gradually enters the delivery month, the spot pressure will continue to be reflected in the near - month futures through warehouse receipt registration, which is expected to lead to a weak performance of the soybean meal 09 contract. The supply of soybean raw materials is relatively abundant, the oil mill operating rate is rising, and the crushing volume is increasing month - on - month. Some regions are starting to urge提货. On the demand side, the previous soybean meal pickup was good, and the middle and downstream are mainly executing previous contracts. However, from the actual downstream physical inventory, soybean meal has not been transferred to the end - users, and the apparent consumption is mainly concentrated in middle - stream traders. Therefore, the basis and spot prices are expected to remain under pressure [15]. Rapeseed Meal - The inventory reduction of rapeseed meal is still slow, and the downstream generally lacks cost - effectiveness in adding rapeseed meal. Recently, there has been news about the WTO establishing a panel to investigate the China - Canada tariff issue, and the market has repeatedly priced this information with little elasticity. The subsequent logic will mainly follow soybean meal, and its own market is expected to be weak [15] Group 7: Oilseeds Futures Prices - Soybean meal 01 closes at 3030, down 39, - 1.27%; Soybean meal 05 closes at 2723, down 24, - 0.87%; Soybean meal 09 closes at 2993, down 44, - 1.45%; Rapeseed meal 01 closes at 2327, down 47, - 1.98%; Rapeseed meal 05 closes at 2343, down 32, - 1.35%; Rapeseed meal 09 closes at 2588, down 74, - 2.78%; CBOT yellow soybeans close at 1037, unchanged, 0% [16] Group 8: Oilseeds Price Spreads Bean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads - M01 - 05 is 322, up 2; RM01 - 05 is - 1, up 6; M05 - 09 is - 290, down 6; RM05 - 09 is - 287, down 15; M09 - 01 is - 32, up 4; RM09 - 01 is 288, up 9; The spot price of soybean meal in Rizhao is 2880, down 20; The basis of soybean meal in Rizhao is - 137, down 20; The spot price of rapeseed meal in Fujian is 2617, down 2; The basis of rapeseed meal in Fujian is - 45, down 7; The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 283, down 18; The futures price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is 375, down 5 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The precious metals market is driven by factors such as the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and the uncertainty of monetary policy, but the intraday risk - aversion sentiment has declined [3]. - Copper prices are likely to oscillate around 78,000 yuan per ton in the short - term, with greater upward pressure and relatively weaker downward support due to the possible weakening of demand [14]. - Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, and it may maintain high - level oscillations in the short - term and be bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - Zinc's supply is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. Demand remains stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment [59]. - For nickel, potential audits in Indonesia may affect production. Nickel ore is expected to stabilize, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak in the off - season, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the next week, with support from low inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weakening downstream demand [89]. - Lithium carbonate's mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be in a weakly oscillating state recently [104]. - The silicon industry chain has a relatively loose supply and slightly improved demand. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Factors**: Geopolitical risks in the Middle East, inflation concerns, and monetary policy uncertainty drive funds into the gold market [3]. - **Price Data**: Various price charts of SHFE and COMEX gold and silver, and their relationships with factors like the US dollar index and US Treasury real interest rates are presented [4][9] Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term oscillation around 78,000 yuan per ton, with upward pressure and weak downward support [14]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [15]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of copper spot in different regions, as well as import profit and loss and other data are given [19][23] - **Inventory Data**: The latest inventory data of SHFE and LME copper, and their changes are presented [27][28] Aluminum - **Aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling, demand is gradually weakening, low inventory and continuous de - stocking support prices in the short - term, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long - term [30]. - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may have short - term production suspension, and the market is in a state of inventory accumulation and price oscillation [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Cost is strongly supported, supply is excessive, demand growth may slow down, and it may oscillate strongly in the short - term with a BACK structure [32]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of aluminum and alumina futures and spot are provided [34][52] Zinc - **Fundamentals**: Supply is gradually loosening, but the transmission to the ingot end is not complete. Demand is stable, and short - term focus is on macro data and inventory [59]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of zinc futures and spot are provided [60][68] Nickel - **Industry Impact**: Indonesian audits may affect nickel intermediate products and stainless - steel production. Nickel ore is stable, nickel - iron prices are down, stainless - steel demand is weak, and sulfuric acid nickel prices are low and stable [72]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of nickel and stainless - steel futures and related raw materials are provided [73][79] Tin - **Price Outlook**: Prices are expected to remain stable, with support from inventory and mine supply, and pressure from weakening demand [89]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of tin futures and spot are provided [90][98] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: Mid - term fundamentals are bearish, with high inventory suppressing price increases, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating recently [104]. - **Price and Inventory Data**: The latest prices, price differences, and inventory data of lithium carbonate futures and spot are provided [105][111] Silicon Industry Chain - **Industry Conditions**: Supply is relatively loose, and demand is slightly improved. The southwest region's industrial silicon enterprises'复产 expectations are being realized, and downstream demand varies [114]. - **Price and Production Data**: The latest prices of industrial silicon spot and futures, and production - related data such as output and capacity utilization rate are provided [117][138]

Group 1: Sugar Core View - Short - term Zhengzhou sugar prices follow the external market and are supported by the previous low. Attention should be paid to the support level of 5600 [3]. Specific Data - **Futures Prices and Spreads**: SR01 closed at 5575 with a daily increase of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.65%; SR03 closed at 5550 with a daily decrease of 0.04% and a weekly increase of 0.62%; etc. [4]. - **Basis**: On June 20, 2025, the basis of Nanning - SR01 was 457, with a daily decrease of 37 and a weekly decrease of 30; the basis of Kunming - SR01 was 282, with a daily decrease of 47 and a weekly decrease of 20; etc. [11]. - **Import Prices**: On June 23, 2025, the in - quota price of Brazilian sugar imports was 4393, with a daily decrease of 42 and a weekly decrease of 122; the out - of - quota price was 5578, with a daily decrease of 55 and a weekly decrease of 159; etc. [14]. Group 2: Cotton Core View - Recently, Sino - US policies are stable, but oil prices fluctuate greatly, affecting cotton prices. In the off - season of demand, the rebound momentum of cotton prices may be weak. Due to the small quantity of imported cotton, the de - stocking speed of Xinjiang cotton is fast. It is expected that the supply and demand at the end of the year may be tight, and the downward space of cotton prices is narrowed. Short - term attention should be paid to the pressure around 13600 and the support around 13000, as well as the de - stocking speed in the off - season [16]. Specific Data - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13500, down 15 or 0.11%; Cotton 05 closed at 13470, down 25 or 0.19%; etc. [17]. - **Spreads**: The cotton basis was 1384, unchanged; the spread between Cotton 01 and 05 was 20, unchanged; etc. [18]. Group 3: Apples Core View - Affected by the impact of seasonal fruits, the sales speed is limited. Due to the busy farming season in Shandong, the packaging quantity is limited. The apple sources in Shaanxi are concentrated in northern Shaanxi, and the secondary production areas are basically cleared. For the new - season apples, they have entered the bagging period. The bagging quantity in Shandong is slightly more than last year, and it is estimated that the bagging quantity in the western region is less than the same period last year. The overall production reduction is estimated to be 5% - 8%. Attention should be paid to the bagging quantity [21]. Specific Data - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7547, down 0.59% daily and up 0.64% weekly; AP03 closed at 7594, up 1.19% daily and up 1.6% weekly; etc. [22]. - **Spot Prices**: The price of Qixia first - and second - grade 80 apples was 4.1, unchanged; the price of Luochuan semi - commercial 70 apples was 4.8, unchanged; etc. [22]. Group 4: Red Dates Core View - Currently, the southern Xinjiang production area is in the concentrated girdling period, and Kashgar has entered the end of girdling. Recently, high temperatures in Xinjiang have continued, but the actual impact on production is still limited. Attention should be paid to the actual impact of subsequent high temperatures on the second - crop fruit setting of the new season. As of now, there may still be high - temperature weather at the end of this month, and the new - season production may face challenges. Last Friday, there was no arrival of goods at the Guangzhou Ruyifang market, and 4 trucks arrived at the Hebei Cuierzhuang market. The downstream purchase and sales atmosphere was light, with sporadic transactions, and the spot prices were generally stable [29]. Specific Data - **Futures Spreads**: The spread between Red Date 01 and 05, 05 and 09, 09 and 01 has different historical trends and values [30][32]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The sum of red date warehouse receipts and valid forecasts shows different values in different years [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market in 2025 differs significantly from 2023. Current demand support is weakening, and future demand may be over - drawn. Although short - term fundamentals have limited pressure, the upward space of the steel futures market is restricted [3]. - The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. Considering the approaching off - season, the current state is acceptable. Prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. - The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. - The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. - The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of steel futures contracts such as rebar and hot - rolled coil showed minor fluctuations compared to June 20. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil decreased, and the spread between rebar and hot - rolled coil remained relatively stable [4][9]. - **Market Analysis**: The current steel market has limited short - term fundamental pressure, but the upward space of the futures market is restricted due to factors such as the approaching off - season and potential over - drawn future demand [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the closing prices of iron ore futures contracts increased slightly compared to June 20, while the basis decreased. The prices of iron ore varieties in Rizhao also showed minor changes [25]. - **Market Analysis**: The iron ore market is in a state of high supply and demand, slightly weakening at the margin. With the approaching off - season, prices may fluctuate, and macro - changes need attention [23][24]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the coking coal and coke futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The coking profit decreased slightly [41]. - **Market Analysis**: The coking coal market has short - term upward potential in the futures market, but the spot market remains under pressure. The probability of coking plants raising prices is low [40]. Ferroalloy - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the ferroalloy (silicon - iron and silicon - manganese) futures prices, basis, and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The spot prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese also changed [59][60]. - **Market Analysis**: The ferroalloy market has a weak long - term trend. Although the negative factors of high inventory and high supply are weakening, cost reduction expectations and the off - season demand may lead to a weak operation [57]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the soda ash futures prices and spreads showed minor changes compared to June 20. The spot prices of heavy and light soda ash in different regions also changed [71][72]. - **Market Analysis**: The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Production is expected to remain high, and demand is weak. The futures price may continue to decline [69][70]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 23, 2025, the glass futures prices and spreads showed different degrees of change compared to June 20. The daily sales - to - production ratios in different regions also changed [99][101]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market's supply may increase, and the cumulative apparent demand has declined. The futures price has limited support and lacks obvious driving factors [98].

油脂油料产业日报 2025/06/23 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究 ...

咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 镍不锈钢产业链周报 2025/06/23 【免责声明】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论 和建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情 形下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行 使独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Bullish Factors - The closure of the import window has led to a decrease in overseas inflows, and the downstream's demand for replenishing inventory at low prices has suppressed inventory accumulation, alleviating concerns about oversupply [3]. - Social inventory has not continued to rise, and market sentiment has stabilized, supporting zinc prices [3]. Bearish Factors - The downstream's raw material inventory remains at a high level, and the seasonal decline in the operating rate has put pressure on the demand side [3]. - The high - production expectation of smelters continues, and the increase in supply intensifies the oversupply pressure [3]. Trading Advisory Viewpoint The Shanghai zinc market shows a pattern of shock adjustment, with both bullish and bearish factors intertwined [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Processing and Terminal Demand - The report presents data on the market sentiment index, weekly inventory, and weekly output of galvanized coils, as well as the net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide [5][6][9]. - It also includes data on real estate development investment, engineering progress, sales area, and unsold area, 30 - major - city commercial housing transaction volume, and infrastructure fixed - asset investment [12][14][17][19]. Futures and Spot Market Review - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign zinc prices, the trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, the relationship between LME zinc closing price and the US dollar index, LME zinc basis, and the basis of zinc ingots in three regions [23][24][29]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - The report provides data on the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, SMM monthly zinc ingot production, China's monthly zinc ingot production and import volume, zinc concentrate raw material inventory days, and LME and SHFE zinc inventories [34][37][38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil production is expected to increase month - on - month, with seasonal production growth approaching, increasing supply expectations. Although domestic port inventories are currently low, as origin quotes weaken, future purchases are emerging. With the current inverted soybean - palm oil price spread, there is no incremental consumption, and inventory is expected to grow, requiring a further narrowing of the spread to stimulate consumption [3]. - For soybean oil, as purchased ships arrive at ports, supply pressure is increasing, and oil mill压榨 is expected to rise. With no incremental consumption to absorb the supply, inventory is expected to enter a build - up cycle. Given the expected increase in both palm oil and soybean oil supply, the soybean - palm oil price spread may repair in the far - month to compete for market share [3]. - Regarding rapeseed oil, the expected improvement in China - Canada relations has reduced the premium in the market's policy - related trading. The current supply is at a peak, but new supply will be limited, and the marginal inventory reduction is expected to accelerate from the end of the second quarter to the beginning of the third quarter. High inventory is suppressing prices, but policy uncertainty provides support for far - month prices [3]. - For imported soybeans, Brazilian premiums are firm, and the domestic market has strengthened with the international market. The estimated arrivals are 11 million tons in June, 11.5 million tons in July, and 9.5 million tons in August. The supply in the second and third quarters is abundant, and the fourth - quarter supply depends on China - US negotiations [15]. - In the domestic soybean meal market, prices have strengthened with the international market due to China - US negotiation expectations. However, the concentrated arrival of soybeans in the third quarter will put pressure on prices. Downstream demand is weak, and the basis remains weak [15]. - In the rapeseed meal market, there is still supply pressure in June, and downstream demand is below expectations. The inventory reduction is difficult. The far - month supply has some gaps, but demand is limited. The market is weak, and future trends depend on China - Canada trade relations [15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Oil Price Spreads - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 122 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 4 yuan/ton; P 5 - 9 is - 152 yuan/ton with a daily change of 16 yuan/ton; P 9 - 1 is 30 yuan/ton with a daily change of - 12 yuan/ton [4]. - Soybean - palm oil spreads: Y - P 01 is - 432 yuan/ton with a daily change of 30 yuan/ton; Y - P 05 is - 650 yuan/ton with a daily change of 20 yuan/ton; Y - P 09 is - 386 yuan/ton with a daily change of 48 yuan/ton [4]. - Other spreads: Y/M and OI/RM also have corresponding price and change data [4]. 3.2. Palm Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm oil futures prices: Palm oil 01 is 8504 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 05 is 8382 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.05%; Palm oil 09 is 8536 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.02% [6]. - Spot and related prices: BMD palm oil主力 is 4143 ringgit/ton with an increase of 0.95%; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is 8730 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton; the basis is 222 yuan/ton with a decline of 30 yuan/ton [6]. 3.3. Soybean Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Soybean oil futures prices: Soybean oil 01 is 8082 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.23%; Soybean oil 05 is 7736 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.04%; Soybean oil 09 is 8156 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.32% [12]. - Spot and related prices: CBOT soybean oil主力 is 54.62 cents/pound with a decline of 0.13%; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is 8300 yuan/ton with an increase of 50 yuan/ton; the basis is 98 yuan/ton with a decline of 18 yuan/ton [12]. 3.4. Oilseed Futures Prices - Soybean meal futures prices: Soybean meal 01 is 3097 with a decline of 7 and a decline rate of 0.23%; Soybean meal 05 is 2768 with a decline of 1 and a decline rate of 0.04%; Soybean meal 09 is 3067 with a decline of 10 and a decline rate of 0.32% [16]. - Rapeseed meal futures prices: Rapeseed meal 01 is 2395 with a decline of 33 and a decline rate of 1.36%; Rapeseed meal 05 is 2389 with a decline of 21 and a decline rate of 0.87%; Rapeseed meal 09 is 2679 with a decline of 15 and a decline rate of 0.56% [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The steel market is facing challenges as the traditional off - season approaches. Although high hot metal production and raw material cost support the market, demand is under pressure due to factors like policy changes, weak investment data, and potential anti - dumping measures [3]. - Short - term iron ore fundamentals are expected to see an increase in both supply and demand, with price elasticity remaining low. The supply is abundant, and the demand is better than expected, so the iron ore price is likely to be stable in the short term [18]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing due to factors such as tariff policies and the off - season [35]. - Ferroalloys are expected to remain weak as the cost is likely to decrease, and the demand is in the off - season, but they may be affected by news when the valuation is too low [51]. - The soda ash market is in a long - term oversupply situation. Although there are short - term production fluctuations due to maintenance, it does not change the overall pattern. The demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening [64]. - The glass market has a weak short - term fundamental and cost support. Although there is an expectation of increased cold - repair if the low price persists, there is no obvious driving force currently [92]. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of rebar 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 2978, 2980, and 2986 yuan/ton respectively; those of hot - rolled coil 01, 05, and 10 contracts were 3100, 3093, and 3102 yuan/ton respectively. The rebar and hot - rolled coil basis widened, and the term structure changed from contango to back [4][19]. - **Market Situation**: The conflict in the Middle East has pushed up the price of coal, but the steel demand is facing a test in the off - season. There is pressure on the coil and sheet market in some regions, and the steel export may face more anti - dumping pressure [3]. Iron Ore - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing price of the 01 contract was 670.5 yuan/ton. The term structure of iron ore flattened, and the backwardation of the far - month contracts slightly increased [20][19]. - **Market Situation**: The supply is expected to remain high, with shipments exceeding the seasonal average by over 300,000 tons. The demand is better than expected, and the hot metal production is likely to remain around 2.4 million tons [18]. Coal - Coke - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the coking coal warehouse - receipt cost (Tangshan Meng 5) was 791 yuan/ton, and the coke warehouse - receipt cost (Rizhao Port wet - quenched) was 1293 yuan/ton. The term structure of coking coal flattened, and the premium of the far - month contracts narrowed [36]. - **Market Situation**: Short - term price fluctuations may intensify due to the conflict in the Middle East. In the medium - to - long - term, the coal - coke market may continue to decline as the negative feedback in the black - series is brewing [35]. Ferroalloys - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 110 yuan/ton, and the silicon - manganese basis in Inner Mongolia was 274 yuan/ton. The ferroalloy positions have decreased, and some funds have left the market [54][55]. - **Market Situation**: The silicon - iron has a production - cut driving force as the profit is at the bottom of the range, while the silicon - manganese profit has improved. The overall situation is weak due to factors such as cost reduction expectations and the off - season [51]. Soda Ash - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of soda ash 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1204, 1170, and 1159 yuan/ton respectively. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high [66][64]. - **Market Situation**: The production has recovered to over 700,000 tons, and the demand from the photovoltaic glass industry is weakening. The price needs further decline in the spot market to fall further [64]. Glass - **Price Data**: On June 18, 2025, the closing prices of glass 05, 09, and 01 contracts were 1084, 980, and 1038 yuan/ton respectively. The cumulative apparent demand of glass has dropped by nearly 10% [93]. - **Market Situation**: The supply has a situation of both ignition and cold - repair. The short - term fundamental and cost support are weak, and there is no obvious driving force [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].