能化产品周报—烧碱 2025年7月8日 研究员： 屠越海 执业编号:Z0019382 审核：唐韵Z0002422 交易咨询业务：沪证监许可【2012】 1515号 http://www.eafutures.com 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不做任何 保证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考， 报告中的信息或意见并不构成所述证券或期货的买卖出价或征价，投资者据此做出 的任何投 资决策与本公司和作者无关。 地址：上海市虹口区东大名路1089号26层2601-2608单元 基本面要点： 价格：7月8日烧碱主力合约（SH2509）收盘报2408元 / 吨，较前一交易日上涨0.54%。32% 离子膜碱：鲁西南：主流成交价 790-830 元 / 吨。 鲁中东部：主流成交价 810-890 元 / 吨，部分企业因检修供应偏紧。鲁北：主流成交价 850-910 元 / 吨，受氧化铝厂刚需支撑。鲁南：主流 成交价 850 - 870 元 / 吨，区域价差收窄。50% 离子膜碱：主流成交价1480 - 1550 / 吨。 供给：本周中国 20 ...

Core View - China's zinc consumption is growing steadily, supporting the demand fundamentals [3] - Low prices are forcing some zinc enterprises to cut production, alleviating supply pressure [3] - Negative factors: Social inventories are continuously accumulating slightly, indicating oversupply; zinc consumption in Western developed countries has dropped significantly, dragging down global demand [3] - Trading consultation view: It is recommended to monitor changes in social inventories to judge market trends [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Sheet and Coil - Galvanized sheet and coil market sentiment index (weekly) is presented with data from 2023 - 2025 [5] - Galvanized sheet and coil weekly inventory - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] - Steel mill galvanized sheet and coil weekly production - seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] Net Exports and Imports - Net export seasonality of galvanized sheets (strips), die - cast zinc alloys, color - coated sheets (strips), and zinc oxide are presented with data from 2021 - 2025 [6][9] Real Estate - Cumulative year - on - year data of real estate development investment, project progress, sales area, and unsold area from 2015 - 2024 are provided [12][14] - Seasonal data of 100 large - and medium - sized cities' land transaction area and 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume from 2021 - 2025 are shown [16][17] Infrastructure - Cumulative year - on - year data of infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) in transportation, warehousing, postal services, water conservancy, environment, public facilities management, and tertiary industry infrastructure construction from 2020 - 2024 are presented [20] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Monthly import volume seasonality of zinc concentrate from 2021 - 2025 is provided [22] - Zinc concentrate TC (treatment charge) data from 2022 - 2025 are presented [24] Zinc Production - Monthly production seasonality of SMM zinc ingots from 2021 - 2025 is shown [25] - China's zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonality from 2021 - 2025 is provided [26] Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days from 2021 - 2025 are presented [28] - LME and SHFE zinc inventory data from 2021 - 2025 are provided, including total inventory and futures inventory [28][29] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and international zinc price trends from 2023 - 2025 are presented [31] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index from 2022 - 2025 are shown [34] Trading Volume and Open Interest - Trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures' main contract from 2023 - 2025 are presented [32] Premiums and Discounts - LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 premiums and discounts from 2023 - 2025 are presented [35] - Seasonal data of LME zinc (spot/three - month) premiums and discounts from 2021 - 2025 are provided [36] - Seasonal data of Tianjin zinc ingot basis from 2021 - 2025 are presented [38] - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023 - 2025 are shown [40]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **L利多因素**: The price of nickel ore remains firm, with strong price - holding intentions from mines, and rising sea freight costs support the cost. Policy disturbances in Indonesia (such as shortened quotas) and favorable new - energy policies strengthen the expectation of a strong supply chain [3]. - **利空因素**: Stainless steel has entered the traditional off - season for demand, increasing the pressure to reduce inventory and suppressing consumption. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines is expected to loosen, and combined with high - level inventory fluctuations, the supply - demand contradiction has weakened [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: There are limited changes in the fundamentals. Nickel price fluctuations are mainly driven by market sentiment and macro factors, and there is no obvious supply - demand contradiction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Market Data** - **镍期货**: The latest value of SHFE nickel main contract is 122,270 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1,550 yuan and a weekly increase rate of 1.28%. The latest value of LME nickel 3M is 15,355 dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 165 dollars and an increase rate of 1.17%. The trading volume increased by 60.25% week - on - week, while the position decreased by 6.9% week - on - week [4]. - **不锈钢期货**: The latest value of the stainless - steel main contract is 12,730 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 170 yuan and an increase rate of 1%. The trading volume decreased by 9.97% week - on - week, and the position decreased by 8.28% week - on - week [4]. - **现货价格**: The latest value of Jinchuan nickel is 124,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 800 yuan and an increase rate of 0.65%. The latest value of imported nickel is 122,750 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 900 yuan and an increase rate of 0.74% [4]. - **库存情况**: The domestic social inventory of nickel is 37,843 tons, a decrease of 380 tons compared to the previous period. The LME nickel inventory is 202,470 tons, a decrease of 1,158 tons. The stainless - steel social inventory is 978 tons, a decrease of 14.1 tons, and the nickel pig iron inventory is 37,534 tons, an increase of 2,924 tons [4][6]. **Supply and Inventory of Primary Nickel** - **产量情况**: The report presents the seasonal production of China's refined nickel, total monthly supply of primary nickel including imports, nickel - iron production in China and Indonesia [14][18][20]. - **库存情况**: It shows the seasonal changes in domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventory, as well as the seasonal changes in nickel ore inventory at Chinese ports [15][16]. **Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel** - **价格情况**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) are presented, along with the seasonal profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate [22][24][26]. - **产量情况**: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the seasonal production capacity of ternary precursors are shown [28]. **Stainless Steel** - **利润率情况**: The seasonal profit margin of China's 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils is presented [29]. - **产量和库存情况**: The seasonal production and inventory of stainless steel are shown [30][32].

Report Information - Report Name: Sugar Industry Weekly Report - Date: June 29, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) [2] Market Information Domestic Market - Spot Quotes: Nanning intermediary platform offers 6,110 yuan/ton, Kunming intermediary offers 5,830 - 5,950 yuan/ton [3] - In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 330,000 tons; imported 64,200 tons of syrup and premixed powder, a year-on-year decrease of 150,700 tons [3] International Market - Last week, Zhengzhou sugar rebounded after hitting a new low. The main factor was the oil price increase caused by the Israel-Iran conflict, which drove up the agricultural product sector. However, the rebound of the external market was not strong due to the decoupling of Brazilian gasoline prices from crude oil prices. With relatively low imports in China, the price of domestic sugar is supported [4] Price and Spread Data Futures - Futures closing prices and spreads on June 30, 2025: SR01 at 5,600 yuan/ton with 0% change, SR03 at 5,573 yuan/ton with 0% change, etc. [5] Spot - Spot prices and spreads on June 27, 2025: Nanning at 6,030 yuan/ton with a 50-yuan increase, etc. [6] Basis - Basis and its changes on June 27, 2025: Nanning - SR01 basis at 490 yuan with a 33-yuan increase, etc. [7][10] Import Prices - Import prices and their changes from June 20, 2025: Brazilian import quota price at 4,450 yuan/ton with a 26-yuan decrease, etc. [11] Industry News - In the first three weeks of June, Brazil exported 2.103 million tons of sugar, with an average daily export of 152,000 tons, a 6% decrease compared to June last year [9] - The National Federation of Cooperative Sugar Factories in India estimates that India's sugar production in the 2025/26 season will be 35 million tons [9] - According to Unica data, in late May, the central-southern region of Brazil crushed 47.85 million tons of sugarcane, a year-on-year increase of 5.47%, produced 2.95 million tons of sugar, a year-on-year increase of 8.86%, and the sugar production ratio was 51.85%, compared to 48.2% in the same period last year [9] - Brazil's Ministry of Mines and Energy increased the mandatory ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% [9]

Core View - Positive factors: Declines in zinc inventories at LME and SHFE support market sentiment, and China's zinc consumption is growing steadily with relatively stable demand [3] - Negative factors: Global zinc consumption is polarized, with a significant decline in Western countries, and zinc inventories remain high due to the slowdown of the world economy [3] - Trading advisory view: Futures institutions have divergent views, with some bullish on short - term macro sentiment and others bearish due to weak fundamentals of increasing supply and decreasing demand [3] Processing and End - User Demand Galvanized Steel Coils - Market sentiment index (weekly) data from 2023/06 to 2025 is presented [5] - Weekly inventory, seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [5] - Steel mill weekly production, seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [5] Net Exports and Imports - Galvanized sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [6] - Die - cast zinc alloy net import seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [6] - Color - coated sheet (strip) net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [8][9] - Zinc oxide net export seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is provided [8][10] Real Estate - Real estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data from 2015/12 to 2023/12 is shown [11][12] - Sales area cumulative year - on - year and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data from 2020/12 to 2024/12 is presented [13][14] - 30 large - and medium - sized cities' commercial housing transaction volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [16][17] Infrastructure - Infrastructure fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) completion data from 2020/06 to 2024/12 is provided [18][19] Futures and Spot Market Review Zinc Prices - Domestic and foreign zinc price trends from 2023/06 to 2025 are presented [22] - LME zinc closing price vs. US dollar index data from 2022/04 to 2025/04 is shown [23][26] Futures Market - SHFE zinc main contract trading volume and open interest data from 2023/06 to 2025 are given [22] - LME zinc (spot/three - month) premium and discount data from 2023/03 to 2025/03 is presented [24] - LME term structure data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [27] Basis - Three - location zinc ingot basis trends from 2023/03 to 2025/03 are provided [28][29] - Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [30][31] Supply and Supply - Side Profits Zinc Concentrate - Zinc concentrate monthly import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [33] - Zinc concentrate TC data from 2022/04 to 2025/04 is shown [34][35] Zinc Ingot - SMM zinc ingot monthly production seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [36] - China zinc ingot monthly production + import volume seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [37] Production and Inventory - Zinc concentrate raw material inventory days data from 2021 - 2025 is shown [38] - LME zinc total inventory seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is given [38] - SHFE zinc inventory futures seasonal data from 2021 - 2025 is presented [39][40] Profits - Refined zinc enterprise production profit and processing fee data from 2022/06 to 2024/12 is provided [36]

Report Information - Report Title: Nickel Stainless Steel Industry Chain Weekly Report - Report Date: June 30, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - **L利多因素**: Nickel ore prices are firm, with some products reducing production to address cost inversion, providing cost support. Domestic nickel ore port inventories are decreasing, and raw materials are in a tight supply situation [3]. - **利空因素**: There is an overall surplus of nickel elements, and supply pressure persists. Downstream demand is weak, and steel mills are reducing production due to production losses [3]. - **交易咨询观点**: In the context of strong supply and weak demand, prices are under pressure [3]. Summary by Directory 盘面信息 - **镍期货价格**: The latest values of Shanghai Nickel Main Contract, Shanghai Nickel Continuous One, Shanghai Nickel Continuous Two, and Shanghai Nickel Continuous Three are 120,480 yuan/ton, 120,480 yuan/ton, 120,550 yuan/ton, and 120,700 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 3,030 yuan/ton, 2,940 yuan/ton, 2,770 yuan/ton, and 2,710 yuan/ton, and weekly growth rates of 2.58%, 2.50%, 2.35%, and 2.35% respectively. The LME Nickel 3M is at 15,150 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 90 US dollars/ton and a weekly growth rate of 2.30% [4]. - **持仓量和成交量**: The latest position volume is 78,738 lots, an increase of 26,731 lots or 51.4% from the previous week. The trading volume is 94,188 lots, a decrease of 1,899 lots or 1.98% from the previous week [4]. - **仓单数和基差**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 21,257 tons, a decrease of 221 tons or 1.03% from the previous week. The basis of the main contract is -1,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 405 yuan/ton or 34.76% from the previous week [4]. - **不锈钢期货价格**: The latest values of Stainless Steel Main Contract, Stainless Steel Continuous One, Stainless Steel Continuous Two, and Stainless Steel Continuous Three are 12,620 yuan/ton, 12,620 yuan/ton, 12,575 yuan/ton, and 12,530 yuan/ton respectively, with weekly increases of 180 yuan/ton, 230 yuan/ton, 220 yuan/ton, and 220 yuan/ton, and weekly growth rates of 1%, 1.86%, 1.78%, and 1.79% respectively [4]. - **持仓量和成交量**: The latest position volume is 107,173 lots, a decrease of 78,734 lots or 42.35% from the previous week. The trading volume is 142,077 lots, a decrease of 67,010 lots or 32.05% from the previous week [4]. - **仓单数和基差**: The latest warehouse receipt quantity is 112,327 tons, a decrease of 1,576 tons or 1.38% from the previous week. The basis of the main contract is 435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton or 6.45% from the previous week [4]. - **镍现货价格**: The latest values of Jinchuan Nickel, Imported Nickel, 1 Electrolytic Nickel, Nickel Beans, and Electrowon Nickel are 120,850 yuan/ton, 118,350 yuan/ton, 119,550 yuan/ton, 117,400 yuan/ton, and 118,050 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 600 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, 550 yuan/ton, 600 yuan/ton, and 550 yuan/ton, and daily growth rates of 0.50%, 0.51%, 0.46%, 0.51%, and 0.47% respectively [4]. - **库存情况**: Domestic social nickel inventories are 38,223 tons, a decrease of 1,160 tons from the previous period. LME nickel inventories are 204,294 tons, an increase of 78 tons from the previous period. Stainless steel social inventories are 992.1 thousand tons, a decrease of 8.5 thousand tons from the previous period. Nickel pig iron inventories are 34,610 tons, an increase of 3,148 tons from the previous period [4][6]. 一级镍供给和库存 - **产量情况**: Not provided in the given content - **库存情况**: Domestic social nickel inventories (nickel plates + nickel beans) and LME nickel inventories show seasonal trends [15]. 上游镍矿 - **价格情况**: The average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB) shows a historical trend [17]. - **库存情况**: Chinese port nickel ore inventories by port show seasonal trends [17]. 镍铁 - **价格情况**: The average ex - factory price of 8 - 12% nickel pig iron in China and the average price of Ni≥14% Indonesian high - nickel pig iron (arrival duty - paid) show historical trends [19]. - **产量情况**: The monthly production of Chinese nickel iron and Indonesian nickel pig iron shows seasonal trends [20][22]. 下游硫酸镍 - **价格情况**: The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate and its premium over primary nickel (plates) show historical trends [24][26]. - **利润率情况**: The profit margins of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans and producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China show seasonal trends [28]. - **产量和产能情况**: The monthly production of nickel sulfate in China and the monthly production capacity of ternary precursors show seasonal trends [30]. 不锈钢 - **产量情况**: The monthly production of stainless steel shows seasonal trends [35]. - **库存情况**: Stainless steel inventories show seasonal trends [33]. - **利润率情况**: The profit margin of Chinese 304 stainless steel cold - rolled coils shows seasonal trends [35].

Report Title - Urea Industry Chain Weekly Report [1][2] Report Date - June 29, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The loosening of export policies provides short - term support, but the high domestic inventory, scattered agricultural top - dressing, and weak industrial demand mean that the loose supply - demand situation has not been substantially reversed [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental and Viewpoints - Market rumors suggest that China's urea export quota has increased by about 2 million tons. The relief of international supply shortages and the boost from Indian tenders support domestic prices [4] - Shanxi enterprises plan to conduct maintenance, reducing the national daily production to 197,400 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease, and inventory has decreased by 6.9% week - on - week, alleviating pressure [4] - The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises has dropped to a low level. The end of summer fertilizer has led to a decline in industrial demand, and end - users have strong resistance to high prices [4] - International crude oil prices have dropped by 7.2% in a week, breaking through $70 per barrel. The sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has weakened, and the weak operation of coal has weakened cost support [4] Urea Fundamental Data - Multiple data charts are presented, including China's weekly urea enterprise inventory, urea inventory in Guangdong and Guangxi, urea futures main contract positions and trading volume, urea warehouse receipt quantity and effective forecasts, market prices and basis of small - sized urea in Henan and Shandong, price differences between large and small - sized urea, seasonal price differences between different urea contracts, production costs and profits of different urea production methods, production enterprise's pending order days, capacity utilization rates of urea and compound fertilizer, compound fertilizer inventory, production costs and profits of compound fertilizer in Shandong, FOB prices of urea in the Middle East and China, spot prices of thermal coal, and thermal coal port inventory [7][10][17][28][38][43][47]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The easing of the Middle - East situation and the possible delay of interest rate cuts have suppressed gold prices in the short - term, but long - term supporting factors remain [3]. - **Copper**: In the short - term, copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton. Considering the possible weakening of demand, the upside pressure is large and the downside support is relatively weak [13]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum's fundamentals show sufficient supply and gradually weakening demand. Low inventory is the short - term core factor supporting prices, with short - term high - level fluctuations and a long - term bearish outlook. Alumina is in low - level operation, and cast aluminum alloy may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [30][31][32]. - **Zinc**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and market sentiment should be focused on, along with inventory data [59]. - **Nickel**: The overall nickel industry is affected by the situation in the Middle - East and the US macro - level. Nickel ore may remain tight, the contradiction in the nickel - iron link is difficult to resolve, and the supply - demand situation of stainless steel may improve if the production cut continues. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Tin**: Tin prices are expected to remain stable in the short - term. The continuous decline in inventory and the under - recovery of upstream tin mines provide support, while weak downstream demand creates pressure [88]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The supply of the silicon industry chain is strong, while the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Influencing Factors**: The cease - fire in the Middle - East has weakened the safe - haven demand, and the possible delay of interest rate cuts has tightened the US dollar liquidity, suppressing gold prices [3]. - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold prices and gold - silver ratios are presented in the report [4]. Copper - **Price Outlook**: Short - term copper prices may fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton, with greater upside pressure and weaker downside support [13]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London copper futures are provided [14]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various domestic copper spot prices and spot premiums are given [19]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss and copper concentrate TC data are presented [23]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME copper inventories are provided [27][28]. Aluminum - **Aluminum**: The supply is sufficient, demand is gradually weakening, and low inventory supports short - term prices. The inventory increase on June 23 may or may not be the inflection point [30]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea may remain shut down in the short - term, and alumina is in low - level operation due to the game between production resumption and maintenance [31]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The cost is strongly supported, but the demand growth may slow down. The futures contract is in a BACK structure, and the price may fluctuate at a high level in the short - term [32]. - **Price and Spread Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina futures, as well as various price spreads, are provided [35][38]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of aluminum and alumina spot prices, as well as various basis and price spreads, are given [43]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME aluminum and alumina inventories are provided [51]. Zinc - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply side is gradually becoming looser, but the transmission from ore to ingot needs time. The demand is stable, and in the short - term, macro data and inventory data should be focused on [59]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and LME zinc futures are provided [60]. - **Spot Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of zinc spot prices and spot premiums are given [65]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME zinc inventories are provided [68]. Nickel - **Industry Situation**: The overall industry is affected by the Middle - East situation and US macro - factors. Nickel ore may be tight, the nickel - iron link has contradictions, and the stainless - steel supply - demand situation may improve with production cuts. Sulfuric acid nickel maintains a production - based - on - sales trend [72]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai nickel and stainless - steel futures are provided [73][75]. - **Inventory and Related Data**: Data on nickel spot prices, warehouse receipts, nickel ore prices, and inventory are presented [79][81]. Tin - **Price Outlook**: Tin prices may remain stable in the short - term, with support from inventory and under - recovery of upstream mines, and pressure from weak downstream demand [88]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai and London tin futures are provided [89]. - **Inventory Data**: The latest data on SHFE and LME tin inventories are provided [97]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Situation**: The spot market of the lithium - battery industry chain is weak. The supply and demand fundamentals have not improved, and high inventory suppresses price increases. It is expected to fluctuate this week [103]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of lithium carbonate futures and spot prices are provided [104][108]. - **Inventory Data**: Data on Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and various lithium carbonate inventories are presented [111]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Supply - Demand Situation**: The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. High inventory suppresses price increases [113]. - **Price Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon spot and futures prices are provided [115][116]. - **Related Product Prices**: Prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, components, and other silicon - related products are presented [124][126]. - **Inventory and Production Data**: Data on industrial silicon production, inventory, and industry average costs are provided [131][137][140].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel: Affected by the decline in crude oil and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production, the downward movement of the market is blocked, and it is expected to be in a volatile consolidation in the short term [3]. - Iron Ore: The fundamentals of iron ore are acceptable, with a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The price may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [20][21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the probability of coke price increase is low. The overall market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - Ferroalloy: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline [56]. - Soda Ash: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price may continue to decline [69][70]. - Glass: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. Attention should be paid to the increase in cold - repair expectations if the low - price situation persists [98]. 3. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the closing prices of some steel contracts changed slightly compared with the previous day. For example, the closing price of the rebar 01 contract was 2978 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [4]. - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the decline in coal prices and the weakening of the previous bullish sentiment in industrial products, the steel market is under downward pressure. However, due to the high level of hot metal production and the support of raw material costs, the downward movement is blocked. In the off - season, the demand for steel is weak, and some varieties are facing inventory pressure. The export price also restricts the rise of steel prices [3]. Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The overall fundamentals of iron ore are in a state of both supply and demand being strong, but slightly weakening at the margin. The global iron ore shipment volume has increased year - on - year, and China's iron ore imports in June are expected to reach the highest value this year. The demand side is supported by high hot metal production, and the inventory in ports is slightly decreasing, but the rate of decrease is slowing down [20]. - **Price Outlook**: The price of iron ore may be range - bound, and attention should be paid to macro - turning points [21]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Situation**: The coking coal market is facing inventory pressure, and the downstream demand is lack of confidence. The probability of coke price increase is low, and the market is affected by the change in the situation in the Middle East [40]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the coking coal and coke contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the coking coal 09 - 01 spread was - 43 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan from the previous day [41]. Ferroalloy - **Market Trend**: Although there is a certain rebound sentiment in the ferroalloy market, the long - term trend is still weak due to factors such as steel mill price pressure and cost decline. The supply side is under low pressure, and the inventory is in a downward trend, but the rate of decline is slowing down [56]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the ferroalloy contract prices and basis had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the silicon - iron basis in Ningxia was 76 yuan/ton, down 86 yuan from the previous day [59]. Soda Ash - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of soda ash is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. The market is in a long - term oversupply situation, and the inventory is at a historical high. The photovoltaic glass industry is in a loss state, and the demand for soda ash is expected to decline [69]. - **Price Movement**: On June 25, 2025, the soda ash contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the soda ash 05 contract closed at 1200 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [71]. Glass - **Market Situation**: The glass market has weak fundamentals and cost support in the short term, and there is no obvious driving force. The cumulative apparent demand for glass has declined by nearly 10%. If the market is to achieve supply - demand balance in the second half of the year, the daily melting volume needs to decline to below 154,000 tons [98]. - **Price Data**: On June 25, 2025, the glass contract prices and spreads had certain changes compared with the previous day. For example, the glass 05 contract closed at 1107 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day [99].

Report Overview - Date: June 25, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220), Reviewed by Tang Yun (Z0002422) Core Views - **Sugar**: ICE raw sugar futures' near - month contract hit a 4 - year low on Tuesday due to good production prospects and falling crude oil. Short - term Zheng sugar prices follow the external market but are supported by the previous low. Pay attention to the support level at 5600 [3]. - **Cotton**: With stable Sino - US policies and a demand off - season, cotton price rebound is limited. However, due to low imported cotton volume, Xinjiang cotton destocking is fast. By the end of the year, supply - demand may tighten, narrowing the downside space. Pay attention to the pressure at 13600 and support at 13000, as well as the off - season destocking speed [16]. - **Apple**: Affected by seasonal fruits, apple sales are limited. In Shandong, packaging is limited by the busy farming season. In Shaanxi, the main supply is from northern Shaanxi and secondary areas are mostly cleared. New - season apples are in the bagging period. Shandong's bagging quantity is slightly more than last year, while the western region's is estimated to be less, with an overall estimated production cut of 5% - 8%. Monitor bagging numbers [21]. - **Jujube**: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang jujube - growing areas is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging in the 24/25 season and recent high temperatures, the first - crop fruit quantity is low. The second - crop fruit is the main contributor to the yield. Pay attention to the impact of high temperatures on the second - crop fruit. Currently, prices are stable with light trading [29]. Summary by Commodity Sugar - **Futures Prices**: SR01 closed at 5577 with a daily increase of 0.4% and a weekly increase of 0.76%; SR03 at 5552 (0.33% daily, 0.74% weekly); SR05 at 5529 (0.24% daily, 0.58% weekly); SR07 at 5766 (0.38% daily, 0.6% weekly); SR09 at 5757 (0.82% daily, 1.37% weekly); SR11 at 5635 (0.68% daily, 0.84% weekly); SB at 16.33 (-1.15% daily, -0.73% weekly); W at 467.4 (0.15% daily, -0.47% weekly) [4]. - **Price Spreads**: SR01 - 05 was 39 (-9 daily, -6 weekly); SR05 - 09 was -194 (0 daily, -12 weekly); SR09 - 01 was 155 (9 daily, 18 weekly); etc [4]. - **Basis**: For example, Nanning - SR01 was 485 (10 daily increase, 9 weekly increase); Kunming - SR01 was 305 (15 daily increase, -6 weekly increase) [11]. - **Import Prices**: Brazilian import quota - within price was 4450 (57 daily increase, -26 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5653 (75 daily increase, -33 weekly increase); Thai import quota - within was 4460 (45 daily increase, -38 weekly increase), quota - outside was 5665 (59 daily increase, -50 weekly increase) [14]. Cotton - **Futures Prices**: Cotton 01 closed at 13625 (40 increase, 0.29%); Cotton 05 at 13605 (50 increase, 0.37%); Cotton 09 at 13645 (35 increase, 0.26%); Yarn 01 at 19990 (120 increase, 0.6%); Yarn 05 at 20055 (-100% change); Yarn 09 at 19995 (90 increase, 0.45%) [17]. - **Price Spreads**: Cotton basis was 1273 (-156 daily); Cotton 01 - 05 was 30 (0 daily); Cotton 05 - 09 was -55 (-60 daily); etc [18]. Apple - **Futures Prices**: AP01 closed at 7586 (0.21% daily, 0.84% weekly); AP03 at 7603 (0.04% daily, 0.6% weekly); AP04 at 7651 (-0.14% daily, 0.87% weekly); etc [22]. - **Spot Prices**: For example, Qixia first - and second - grade 80 was 4.1 (0% daily and weekly); Luochuan semi - commodity 70 was 4.8 (0% daily and weekly) [22]. - **Price Spreads**: AP01 - 05 was -135 (7.14% daily, -0.74% weekly); AP05 - 10 was 31 (3.33% daily, 82.35% weekly); AP10 - 01 was 104 (8.33% daily, -12.61% weekly) [23]. Jujube - **Production Situation**: The first - round girdling in southern Xinjiang is ending. Due to high fruit - hanging last season and high temperatures, first - crop fruit is limited. Second - crop fruit is crucial. Temperatures may remain high this week, with a weekend drop and a subsequent rise, posing challenges to new - season yield [29]. - **Market Situation**: No arrivals in Guangzhou Ruyifang market yesterday, 3 arrivals in Hebei Cuierzhuang market. Downstream trading is light with sporadic deals, and spot prices are stable [29].