东证衍生品研究院 黑色与航运部 兰淅 从业资格号：F03086543 投资咨询号：Z0016590 数据点评 重点集装箱港口及关键枢纽监测20250417 • | 港 口 | 地 区 | 最新 | 一 期 | | 月环比 | | 年同比 | | 月平均 | 去年同期 | 单 位 | 450 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 洋山 | 中国 | 45 . | 4 | 8 . | 5 | 17 | 4 . | 36 | 9 . | 27 9 . | 小时 | 400 | | 宁波 | 中国 | 52 . | 1 | 7 . | 0 | 0 - | 3 . | 45 | 0 . | 52 3 . | 小时 | | | 新加坡 | 东南亚 | 32 . | 5 | 1 - | 1 . | 2 - | 1 . | 33 | 6 . | 34 5 . | 小时 | 350 | | 巴生 | 东南亚 | 50 . | 3 | 6 - | 6 . | 1 - | 5 . | 56 | 9 . ...

日度报告——综合晨报 关税问题继续扰动市场 黄金震荡收涨表现偏强，关税问题仍然是市场交易的主逻辑。 其他非美国家基本上意在和美国谈判达成协议，在美国延迟加 征对等关税后，也相继延迟反制措施。 宏观策略（国债期货） 央行开展了 1645 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-16 宏观策略（黄金） 综 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 合 欧盟预计美国关税将维持现状 晨 报 关税进入谈判阶段，在基本修复流动性冲击的 跌幅后，三大股 指震荡运行。 关税问题继续扰动市场 近期市场以市场高位震荡为主，缺乏单边的投资机会。 | 常海晴 | 高级分析师 | （金工量化） | | --- | --- | --- | | [Table_Analyser] 从业资格号： | F03087441 | | | 投资咨询号： | Z0019497 | | | Tel： | 63325888-3902 | | | Email： | | haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com | 农产品（玉米淀粉） 淀粉企业亏损情况未改 淀粉企业亏损情况未改，但当前的期货米粉价差影响因素复杂， 波 ...

调研报告——苯乙烯 东证化工草根调研二十四：华南苯乙烯及下游 | 走势评级: | | --- | 能 源 化 ★下游在手订单尚能支撑 4 月生产，但 5 月需求端实际冲击或显现 我们本次走访时点为 4.8-4.11，正值贸易冲突势态升级之际，因此我 们重点关注了下游的在手订单、冲突影响等情况，得到了以下几点 反馈：①关税政策相关的扰动暂未对下游 3S 工厂造成直接影响，调 研的 3S 企业基本表示目前在手订单可以支撑 4 月的生产（也有物料 平衡、完成生产计划等考虑），但政策的不确定性加深了客户观望 情绪，新订单情况受到影响，5-6 月下游开工情况需要边走边看。② 有企业反馈，其客户的客户/经销商的下游近期有出现砍单现象。③ 部分下游反馈，玩具等行业今年一季度存在比较明显的抢出口现象， 或透支后续需求。④关于下游 3S 成品库存情况，部分企业感知社会 库存偏高，但我们调研的下游企业反馈厂内库存整体中性。⑤若下 游成品价格进一步压降，可关注 EPS 与 EPO/EPP、PS 新料与再生 料等替代需求，或对需求滑坡形成一定缓冲。 工 ★华南-华东价差此前受益需求有所走扩，后续则或维持偏窄区间 此前华南市场价格明显 ...

周度报告——光伏玻璃 新线点火增加，光伏玻璃供给呈上行趋势 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025 年 4 月 14 日 ★光伏玻璃基本面周度表现（截至 2025/4/11 当周）： 截至 4 月 11 日，国内光伏玻璃 2.0mm 镀膜（面板）主流价格 为 14.5 元/平米，环比上周持平；3.2mm 镀膜主流价格为 22.5 元/平米，亦环比上周持平。4 月光伏玻璃价格继续上涨，本月 光伏玻璃厂家与二三线下游客户成交价格多为高价区间，与一线 下游客户成交多为低价区间，具体成交价格根据实际交易量而 定。与此同时，行业仍有下游客户采取先拿货月底再议价的方式。 能 源 化 上周光伏玻璃供给端有两条新产线点火，一条产线引头子，整体 供给量继续增长。预计本周有一条产线存在点火预期，一条产线 存在冷修预期，个别企业仍有放开窑口计划，短期整体供给仍呈 上行趋势。 工 上周国内光伏玻璃厂家走货节奏明显放缓，主要原因有三方面： 首先是上下游价格博弈导致下游组件端下单量较少；其次是终端 需求阶段性回落导致组件市场降温，光伏玻璃消费量受到影响； 再次是三月末释放涨价情绪阶段，下游组件厂家备货量较为充 足，当前以消化库存为 ...

日度报告——综合晨报 美国豁免部分商品对等关税 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-14 卡什卡里称美联储所能做的就是稳住通胀预期 美国豁免部分商品对等关税，表明短期对等关税引发的市场波 动暂时告一段落，美元继续走弱。 宏观策略（国债期货） 3 月金融数据普遍超预期 降准降息难以被证伪，市场仍然处于偏多环境，赔率受限的环 境下可寻找回调后的买入机会 综 宏观策略（股指期货） 合 美国将智能手机等产品进行对等关税豁免 晨 报 全球股市跟随特朗普关税政策而变，除美股外全球股市多数反 弹。近期美国对一些关键进口商品或采取对等关税豁免，但其 政策变数依然较大。仍建议在年报季谨慎对待。 黑色金属（螺纹钢/热轧卷板） 各地拟使用专项债收地总金额已破千亿元 周五钢价午后有所反弹，核心驱动仍在于贸易谈判和国内政策 发力的预期。但贸易谈判难度较大，风险仍未解除，卷板需求 出现边际走弱迹象，建议谨慎看待钢价反弹空间。 有色金属（铜） 紫金矿业：一季度归母净利润 101.67 亿元 由于美国豁免部分产品"对等关税"，贸易摩擦继续升级风险 阶段下降，市场风险偏好回升，铜价预计震荡偏强 ...

周度报告-黄金 美国关税政策反复无常，黄金大涨创新高 | [走Ta势bl评e_级Ra：nk] | 黄金：看跌 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 年 4 | 月 | 13 日 | [★Ta市bl场e_综Su述mm：ary] 贵 金 属 伦敦金大涨 6.6%至 3237 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4.49%，通 胀预期降至 2.23%，实际利率升至 2.26%，美元指数大跌 2.84%至 100， 标普 500 指数反弹 5.7%，人民币小涨，沪金由溢价转为折价。 黄金暴涨持续创新高，美国市场遭遇股市、债市、汇率三杀，资 金流入黄金，海外黄金 ETF、国内期货市场做多情绪高涨，共同 推动黄金上涨。美国政府对外关税政策的反复无常以及中美互相 加征报复性关税并持续加码，导致市场避险情绪增加，美国资产 的下跌一方面是关税增加了经济前景的不确定性，居民消费和企 业盈利均将受到压力，经济面临的滞胀风险增加，基本面对黄金 利多；另一方面，美国本次极端的关税政策导致资金流出美国， 欧元、日元、瑞郎等货币大幅升值，美元指数一度跌破 100，表 现疲弱，美元没有发 ...

金工策略周报 东证衍生品研究院金融工程组 2025年4月13日 王冬黎 金融工程首席分析师（国债期货） 从业资格号： F3032817 投资咨询号： Z0014348 Email: dongli.wang@orientfutures.com 常海晴 金融工程高级分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 李晓辉 金融工程首席分析师（CTA） 从业资格号： F03120233 投资咨询号： Z0019676 Email: Xiaohui.li01@orientfutures.com 联系人 徐凡 金融工程分析师(FOF、基本面量化) 从业资格号： F03107676 Email: qinxuan.fan@orientfutures.com 股指期货量化策略跟踪 常海晴 金融工程高级分析师(股指期货) 从业资格号：F03087441 投资咨询号：Z0019497 Email: haiqing.chang@orientfutures.com 对等关税事件冲击市场，股指期货空头套保需求上升导致各品种贴水 ...

周度报告—氧化铝 、smingfTable_Title] 氧化铝厂检修减产扩大， 矿山供应出现扰动 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 氧化铝：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 4 月 | 年 | 13 | 日 | [Table_Summary] ★氧化铝厂检修减产扩大，矿山供应出现扰动 有 色 金 属 原料：上周国内矿石价格处于下行通道，山西矿 58/5 的含税报 价 730 元/吨，河南的 58/5 的含税价格为 668 元/吨, 贵州 60/6 铝土矿的到厂含税价格维持 596 元/吨。矿山资源整合政策持续 深化，部分矿山因资源整合、环保、安全等合规要求暂处停产状 态，在产矿山开工率较春节前略低，部分氧化铝企业提高国产矿 的配比，短期铝土矿价格仍处于下行区间但下方空间有限。进口 方面，大型铝土矿企业长单陆续签订，整体价格区间集中在 88-95 美元/干吨。几内亚新增产能落实顺利，矿山销售压力较大。供 需双方僵持持续，矿山报价开始向 CIF 90 美元/吨靠拢，而下游 企业用户采购价格多集中于 CIF 80-83 美 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation; Polysilicon: Oscillation [5] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of industrial silicon are difficult to change, and the rush to install photovoltaic systems is receding. The supply reduction of industrial silicon has been implemented, but the demand remains sluggish. For polysilicon, the core issue is the high inventory, and the spot price may face pressure again with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - This week, the Si2505 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 365 yuan/ton to 9455 yuan/ton. The SMM spot price of East China oxygenated 553 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 10100 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 decreased by 100 yuan/ton to 9350 yuan/ton. The PS2506 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1815 yuan/ton to 41835 yuan/ton. The average transaction price of N-type re-feeding material remained unchanged at 41700 yuan/ton [10] 3.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamentals Remain Unchanged, Photovoltaic Rush to Install Recedes - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price of industrial silicon fluctuated downward this week. Xinjiang reduced production by 2 industrial silicon furnaces, with a weekly output of 72400 tons, a decrease of 0.34%. The social inventory of SMM industrial silicon increased by 0.4 million tons, and the sample factory inventory increased by 0.65 million tons. After the production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang, other large factories did not continue to reduce production. The industrial silicon in the southwest region is slowly resuming work, and some new production capacities are planned to be put into operation this month. The powder list price of polysilicon factories this week is between 10400 - 10500 yuan/ton. Organic silicon continued to reduce production, and the price of aluminum alloy decreased due to US tariffs, maintaining only rigid demand for industrial silicon. Exports may decline in the short term due to relevant policies [12] - **Organic Silicon**: The price of organic silicon dropped significantly this week. Many enterprises maintained reduced production, with an overall operating rate of about 63.3%, a decrease of 3.28 percentage points. The weekly output was 41900 tons, a decrease of 3.23%, and the inventory was 53700 tons, an increase of 6.97%. After the price increase, the downstream's acceptance of high prices was limited, and the procurement intensity weakened. Although monomer factories continued to operate at reduced capacity, there was no shortage of supply, and the factory inventory increased instead of decreasing [12][13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price of polysilicon fluctuated downward this week. The price of silicon materials remained stable temporarily due to fewer signed orders, but the manufacturers' recent quotations have started to decline. The planned production of polysilicon in April is expected to be about 1 million tons, and it is expected to increase to about 1.1 million tons in May. It is estimated that polysilicon can continue to reduce inventory by 10000 tons in May. However, the core problem of polysilicon is still the high inventory, with the industry - wide inventory possibly around 4.5 million tons. From April to May, silicon wafer manufacturers mainly aim to digest their existing inventory, with low procurement enthusiasm. With the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. As of April 11, the number of registered warehouse receipts was only 10 lots [3][13] - **Silicon Wafers**: The price of silicon wafers started to decline this week. Affected by the earthquake, the price of silicon wafers was raised, but the terminal demand declined earlier than expected, resulting in low acceptance of the new price. The mainstream transaction prices of M10, G12R, and G12 models may gradually fall to 1.25, 1.50, and 1.55 yuan/watt. The planned production of silicon wafers in April was adjusted down to 60 - 62GW, and the silicon wafer sector continued to reduce inventory. As of April 60 (presumably a typo, might be April 6), the inventory of silicon wafer factories was 20.9GW, an increase of 1.4GW. In May, considering that the silicon wafer sector has been reducing inventory for 8 consecutive months and the current inventory has dropped to a half - month level, the planned production of silicon wafers in May is also expected to be above 60GW. After the rush - to - install period, the market demand may weaken rapidly, and the price of silicon wafers may continue to decline [14] - **Battery Cells**: The price of battery cells remained basically stable this week. The price of M10 and G12 model battery cells remained at 0.31 yuan/watt, and the price of G12R model battery cells dropped slightly to 0.33 yuan/watt. The decline in component prices led to low acceptance of high - priced battery cells. The planned production of domestic battery cells in April was 61 - 63GW, continuing the inventory reduction trend. As of April 7, the inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 2.58GW, an increase of 1.3GW. Looking forward, after the end of the rush - to - install period, the price of battery cells may decline with the weakening of demand from late April [14] - **Components**: The price of components dropped slightly this week. As the rush - to - install tide gradually receded, the price of distributed components started to decline, falling to the level of 0.75 - 0.76 yuan/watt, and high - price transactions shrank rapidly. The price of centralized components was basically stable. On April 9, China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025. It is expected that the project will be re - tendered, but the procurement price and price level may be lower than before. The planned production of components in April was 66 - 68GW. Considering the delivery of the remaining orders of distributed components and the placement of centralized component orders, the planned production of components in May is expected to be 60 - 62GW. After the rush - to - install period, the price of components is expected to continue to decline [15] 3.3 Investment Recommendations - **Industrial Silicon**: The production reduction of large factories in Xinjiang may lead to inventory reduction, but without policy support, the upward driving force of industrial silicon is weak. The upper limit of the disk price depends on the hedging point. The lower limit mainly considers two points: 1) cost and production reduction; 2) selling the new standard 421 as 99 - grade silicon. Considering that the spot price may continue to fall towards the cost line of large factories and the premium of 800 yuan/ton for the new contract, in a worse - case scenario, the disk price may fall to about 9000 yuan/ton. Therefore, the disk price may fluctuate between 9000 - 10500 yuan/ton. For unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the disk price rebounds. For arbitrage, it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse arbitrage opportunity of Si2511 - Si2512 [4][17] - **Polysilicon**: After the rush - to - install period, with the resumption of production on the supply side and the weakening of demand, the spot price may face pressure again. However, in April, polysilicon started warehouse receipt registration, and the disk will also trade the contradiction of warehouse receipts. Considering that only five enterprises meet the delivery brand requirements and the production of deliverable products from March to May is limited, silicon material factories will be more cautious about hedging, and a too - low disk price may lead to a shortage of warehouse receipts. Therefore, for unilateral trading, it is recommended to pay attention to both the opportunity to go long on PS2506 at low prices and the opportunity to go short on PS2511 at high prices. For arbitrage, the long - short position of PS2506 - PS2511 can continue to be held [4][17] 3.4 Hot News - China Power Construction terminated the 5.1GW photovoltaic component centralized procurement project for 2025 due to factors such as the adjustment of new energy electricity price policies [15][18] - On April 9, the 100000 - ton hydropower silicon energy - saving and environmental - protection project of Yunnan Energy Investment Group Yongchang Silicon Industry was put into operation, with an expected annual industrial output value of over 1.5 billion yuan, tax payments of over 120 million yuan, and the creation of more than 300 jobs [18] - The 1.6 million - ton organic silicon project of Qiya Group started construction on April 1, 2025, and is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2026. It is an important plan for Qiya Group to improve the full silicon - based industrial chain [18]

周度报告-外汇期货 d[Table_Title] 对等关税暂缓，美元指数走弱 [★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好骤降，股市多数下降，债券收益率多数上行，美 债收益率升至 4.49%。美元指数跌 2.84%至 100.1，非美货币多数 贬值，离岸人民币涨 0.1%，欧元涨 3.53%，英镑涨 1.53%，日元 涨 2.31%，瑞郎涨 5.34%，澳元和新西兰元涨近 4%，韩元和加 元涨超 2%，新兴市场货币涨跌互现。金价大涨 6.6%至 3237 美 元/盎司，VIX 指数回落至 37.6，现货商品指数收涨，布油跌 3.1%至 65.8 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 特朗普政府对外大幅加征对等关税后，市场避险情绪骤然上 升，多数国家开始展开与美国的谈判，对等关税也延期 90 天， 但中国和美国互相加征报复性关税并层层加码至 145%，到达了 无法开展正常贸易的水平。特朗普政府最新动态是对芯片等高 端商品进行关税豁免，短期内贸易战继续升级的空间有限，但 特朗普政府朝令夕改的政策不确定性，加大了市场的波动，关 税也将打压经济前景，需求下降、企业利润受损都将施压股 市。美联储 ...