伦敦金跌 1.5%至 3038 美元/盎司。10 年期美债收益率 4%，通胀预期 降至 2.27%，实际利率降至 1.67%，美元指数跌 0.98%至 103，标普 500 指数大跌 9%，人民币小跌，内外价差窄幅波动。 贵 金 属 国际金价再创新高 3167 美元/盎司后高位回落最终收跌，美国对 等关税落地，幅度超预期引发市场避险情绪骤然提升，美股持续 大跌，OPEC 宣布增产，油价加速下跌，工业品整体面临需求下 降的风险，价格集体下挫，黄金表现好于风险资产但同样受到拖 累转为下跌，多头顺势获利了结降低仓位。关税对黄金的影响体 现为几个方面：首先，黄金在一季度表现强劲，主要是受到特朗 普政府关税政策的带动，对于关税风险已经有一部分定价；第二， 股市和商品大跌，短期从流动性层面会拖累黄金表现；第三，对 等关税中黄金是被豁免的，因此黄金主要发挥避险作用，而非贸 易层面的美国黄金溢价增加，当前海外黄金价差处于正常波动区 间；最后，3 月美国非农就业报告表现尚可，给到货币政策观望 空间，美联储主席鲍威尔表示关税将提升通胀压力，货币政策保 持谨慎态度，没有因为股市下跌而紧急降息，也增加了市场的下 跌压力，美债收益率止 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for alumina is "Oscillation" [1][5] 2. Core View of the Report - The alumina spot price continued to decline last week, and most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou have entered a loss - making situation. Although the supply pressure has slightly eased due to production cuts, the new production capacity in Indonesia will be put into operation in the second quarter, and the overall supply - demand situation still faces pressure. However, the price valuation is not high, and the futures price may gradually enter the bottom - grinding stage [3][13][15] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Alumina Industry Chain Weekly Overview - **Raw Materials**: Domestic ore prices decreased last week. The含税 price of Shanxi 58/5 ore was 730 yuan/ton, Henan 58/5 ore was 658 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan from last week), and Guizhou 60/6 bauxite was 596 yuan/ton. Due to the deepening of the mine resource integration policy, some mines were shut down, and the operating rate of mines in production was slightly lower than before the Spring Festival. The short - term bauxite price was still in a downward range. For imports, long - term contracts of large bauxite enterprises were signed successively, with the overall price ranging from 88 - 95 dollars/dry ton, and the spot price was 85 - 86 dollars/dry ton. The mining cost in Guinea was mostly between 30 - 45 dollars/ton. During the period, 342.4 million tons of new ore arrived, including 247.2 million tons from Guinea and 73.3 million tons from Australia. The freight of Cape - type ships from Guinea to China dropped to 22.5 dollars/ton [2][12] - **Alumina**: The spot price of alumina continued to decline last week. The ALD northern comprehensive price was 2960 - 3030 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan/ton from last week; the domestic weighted index was 2985 yuan/ton, down 76.4 yuan/ton. The port price of imported alumina was 3300 - 3350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The market trading was mainly between aluminum plants and traders, and the trading method was mainly tender procurement. Most alumina enterprises in Shanxi, Shandong, Henan, and Guizhou were in a loss - making situation. In the northern market, 20,000 tons of alumina were traded this week, an increase of 7,000 tons from last week, and the weighted trading price was 2964 yuan/ton, down 96 yuan/ton. Overseas, the overseas trading price continued to fall. 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at FOB 352 dollars/ton, equivalent to about 3011 yuan/ton in RMB. In the second quarter, a new 1 - million - ton production line of Indonesia Nanshan will be put into operation, increasing the market supply pressure. As of last week, the full cost of domestic alumina was 3104 yuan/ton, and the real - time profit was - 3 yuan/ton. The current production - cut capacity was about 2 million tons, and it was expected to reach about 5 million tons by mid - April [3][13] - **Demand**: The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 43.848 million tons, unchanged from last week. There was no change in overseas demand, and the latest overseas electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was 29.358 million tons, also unchanged from last week [14] - **Inventory**: As of Thursday (April 3), the national alumina inventory was 3.39 million tons, an increase of 20,000 tons from last week. The alumina price continued to fall, and the net - purchasing industrial chain group continued to reduce the inventory of its own aluminum plants. The alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants continued to decline; the unpacked alumina inventory of alumina enterprises within the research scope continued to increase, and the non - aluminum industry consumption increased significantly, which was beneficial for some multi - variety alumina producers to reduce inventory; the social inventory of other ports changed relatively little [14] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The registered warehouse receipts of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange were 309,097 tons, a decrease of 1,516 tons from last week [15] 3.2 Weekly Summary of Key Events in the Industry Chain - The alumina trading price in Western Australia dropped to 330 dollars/ton, and the theoretical import feasibility increased. On April 3, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded in Western Australia at an FOB price of 330 dollars/ton for May shipment. The theoretical import cost to China was about 2970 yuan/ton [16] - 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton. On April 3, 24,000 tons of alumina were traded in Vietnam at an FOB price of 352 dollars/ton for early - May shipment, with payment upon delivery [16] - Two new alumina maintenance enterprises were added in the northern region. A Shanxi alumina enterprise planned to carry out major maintenance on its alumina production line on April 5, expected to resume production on April 20, with a daily impact on alumina production of about 3000 tons. A Henan alumina enterprise would carry out maintenance on a roasting furnace on April 4, with an initial maintenance time of about 10 days and a daily impact on alumina production of about 1300 tons [16] 3.3 Monitoring of Key Data Upstream and Downstream of the Industry Chain - **Raw Materials and Cost Side**: The report presents data on domestic and imported bauxite prices, domestic bauxite port inventory, port shipping volume of major bauxite - importing countries, sea - floating inventory of major bauxite - importing countries, domestic caustic soda price trends, domestic thermal coal price trends, and alumina production costs in various provinces [17][19][24] - **Alumina Price and Supply - Demand Balance**: It shows data on domestic alumina spot prices in various provinces, imported alumina prices, domestic electrolytic aluminum spot prices, the futures price ratio of electrolytic aluminum to alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and the weekly supply - demand balance of domestic alumina. The table also shows the historical data of alumina and electrolytic aluminum operating capacity and supply - demand differences from November 2024 to April 2025 [33][35][39] - **Alumina Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: It includes data on the alumina inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants, alumina plants, domestic alumina yards/platforms/in - transit inventory, alumina port inventory, total domestic social alumina inventory, and the warehouse - receipt volume and holding volume of alumina on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, as well as the ratio of holding volume to warehouse - receipt volume [42][45][50]

★ 商品期权市场活跃度 本周（2025.3.31-2025.4.3）商品期权市场成交有所上升，日均 成交量为 650.79 万手，日均持仓量为 1148.95 万手，环比变 化分别为 16.10%和 8.59%。分品种来看，本周成交活跃的品 种主要包括玻璃（82 万手）、纯碱（47 万手）、豆粕（44 万手）。此外，本周共有 3 个品种成交增长超过 90%，成交 量增长较为显著的品种为豆一（+98.50%）、锰硅（+98.41%） 以及 LPG（+90.90%）。与此同时，成交量下降较为明显的 品种则有苹果（-99.16%）、对二甲苯（-98.22%）和红枣 （-92.32%）。从持仓量数据来看，本周日均持仓量较高的品 种为豆粕（137 万手）、玻璃（125 万手）和纯碱（95 万手）。 LPG 的日均持仓量环比增长较为迅速，增幅达+59.10%。建 议投资者可重点关注交易活跃品种可能存在的市场机会。 ★ 商品期权主要数据点评 标的涨跌情况：本周商品期权标的涨跌不一，除农产品外大 多 数 品 种 以 下 跌 为 主 。 周 度 涨 幅 较 高 的 品 种 有 豆 粕 （+3.30%）、菜油（+2.84%）、豆 ...

周度报告—碳酸锂 、smingfTable_Title] 智利锂盐发运环比回升， 避险情绪或催化锂价下跌加速 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 碳酸锂：看跌 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 4 6 | 年 | 月 | 日 | 有 上周锂盐价格偏弱运行。LC2504 收盘价环比-1.3%至 7.30 万元/ 吨，LC2505 收盘价环比-1.1%至 7.32 万元/吨；SMM 电池级 （99.5%）、工业级（99.2%）碳酸锂现货均价环比-0.3%至 7.39、 7.20 万元/吨；溧阳中联金碳酸锂近月合约收盘价环比-1.1%至 7.3 万元/吨。周内氢氧化锂价格略降，SMM 粗颗粒及微粉型电池级 氢氧化锂均价环比-0.1%至 6.96、7.47 万元/吨。电工价差环比持 平、为 0.20 万元/吨。电池级氢氧化锂较电池级碳酸锂价格贴水 环比略收窄至 0.43 万元/吨。 色 金 属 据智利海关，3 月智利共出口碳酸锂及氢氧化锂 2.30 万吨，环比 +37%，同比+8%；其中对中国出口 1.66 万吨，环比+38%，同比 ...

周度报告——股指期货 美国对等关税超预期，A 股仍待回调 | | | [★Ta一bl周e_复Su盘mm：a对ry]等关税落地，全球股市暴跌 股 指 期 货 本周（03.31-04.04）以美元计价的全球股市暴跌。MSCI 全球指 数跌 7.9%，其中新兴市场（-2.96%）>前沿市场（-4.20%）>发 达市场（-8.49%）。中国股市跌幅 1.26%全球表现最好，南非股 市跌幅 12.55%全球表现最差。中国权益分市场看， A 股>港股> 中概股。A 股沪深京三市日均成交额 11370 亿元，环比上周（12610 亿元)缩量 1240 亿元。A 股表现出韧性，万得微盘股指数逆势上 涨 1.64%表现最好，创业板指数跌幅 2.95%表现最差。本周 A 股 中信一级行业中共 8 个上涨（上周 5 个），22 个下跌（上周 25 个）。领涨行业为公用事业（+2.53%），领跌行业为新能源 （-3.54%）。利率方面，本周 10Y 国债收益率下行，1Y 下行， 利差缩小。ETF 资金流向方面，跟踪沪深 300 指数的 ETF 份额 本周增增加 6 亿份，跟踪中证 500 的 ETF 份额减少 3 亿份。跟 踪中证 ...

[★Ta本bl周e_全Su球mm市a场ry]概述 市场风险偏好骤降，股市多数大跌，债券收益率多数下行，美 债收益率收于 4%。美元指数跌 0.98%至 103，非美货币多数贬 值，离岸人民币跌 0.34%，欧元涨 1.16%，英镑跌 0.4%，日元张 1.94%，瑞郎涨 2.27%，大宗商品货币下跌，澳元跌 4%，兰特跌 3.8%，新西兰元跌 2.14%，比索、卢比、雷亚尔、林吉特、泰铢 等悉数收跌。金价跌 1.5%至 3038 美元/盎司，VIX 指数跳升至 45，现货商品指数收跌，布油大跌 8.7%至 67.9 美元/桶。 外 ★市场交易逻辑 汇 期 货 特朗普政府对等关税细则正式落地，对所有进口国家商品加征 基准 10%关税，并且不同贸易逆差的国家加征不同幅度的更高 级别关税，引发市场强烈波动。国内推出反制措施，欧元区亦 表示要采取反制措施，全球经济面临的下行风险快速提升，股 市直接受到冲击。美国经济数据表现尚可，但未来的预期已经 转为悲观。3 月 ISM 制造业 PMI 从 50.3 回落至 49，低于预期， 非制造业 PMI 从 53.5 回落至 50.8，物价分项显著回升，但新订 单和需求减弱。3 ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 关税对于光伏产业链的影响有限 [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 新疆大厂东部基地在原复产 50 台矿热炉的基础上减产 28 台， 即剩余 22 台矿热炉在产，西部基地开炉 48 台，减产时间仍未 明确。西南地区工业硅缓慢复工，部分新建产能如永昌硅业、 新安盐津计划在本月陆续投产。本周多晶硅厂粉单释放，压价 严重，疆内 99 硅粉价格 10000-10100 元/吨，江苏 99 硅粉价格 在 10650-10730 元/吨。有机硅 4 月或再减产，铝合金维持刚需 采买。出口受政策影响，短期之内或将下行。供给减产已落 地，但在需求不见起色的情况下，工业硅基本面情况难改。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 地震影响硅片产出，但由于出现断线/焖锅问题，原单晶炉中 的硅料无法再使用，需要重新投料，因此对硅料需求而言或有 小幅利好。4 月多晶硅排产预计在 10 万吨左右。以此测算，4 月多晶硅有望去库超 2 万吨。但多晶硅的核心问题仍在于高企 的库存。考虑下游库存，则全行业库存或在 45 万吨左右。4-5 月硅片厂家策略以消化在手库存为主，采购积极性不高。目前 硅料厂策略仍以稳定价格为主，但抢装后 ...

周度报告-国债期货 行情提前启动，关注短债补涨机会 [Table_Summary] ★一周复盘：国债期货震荡转涨 国 债 期 货 本周（03.31-04.06）国债期货震荡转涨。周一，3 月官方制造业 PMI 继续回升，市场将其视为利空落地，叠加股市走弱，国债 由弱转强，但由于季末资金面持续偏紧，午后市场再度走弱， 曲线整体走平。周二，早午盘资金面均衡偏紧，国债期货冲高 回落，尾盘资金虽然转松，但现券反应不大。周三，今日资金 面转松，同时市场对外需走弱、货币宽松的预期上升，国债期 货拉升，曲线走平。周四，海外关税政策超市场预期、资金面 均衡偏松，国债期货大幅上涨。截至 4 月 3 日收盘，两年、五 年、十年和三十年期国债期货主连合约结算价分别为 102.544、 106.115、108.575 和 118.680 元，分别较上周末变动+0.096、 +0.450、+0.690 和+2.600 元。 ★行情提前启动，关注短债补涨机会 展望后市，贸易冲突存在螺旋上升的可能，债市上涨的方向是 相对确定的，所需考虑的只是节奏和赔率的问题。节奏方面， 虽然长债已经基本完成了对于美国对等关税这一事件的定价， 但中国已经展 ...

周度报告——商品期货 商品风格轮动周报： 对等关税超预期，不确定性仍存 [Table_Rank] 报告日期： 2025 年 4 月 5 日 [Table_Summary] ★商品市场概述 2025 年 4 月 3 日当周，涨幅靠前品种集中于贵金属及农产品， 跌幅靠前品种集中于工业品板块。清明假日期间，风险资产普 跌。 ★风格轮动及品种间相对估值表现 4 月 3 日当周内盘走势显示，周期/成长风格轮动至空配周期； 工业品/农产品风格轮动至空配南华工业品；贵金属/工业品风 格轮动至多配南华贵金属；金/油比价轮动至多配金。 4 月 3 日当周内盘走势显示，周内套利对表现相对最强的三个头 寸分别为：棕榈油-豆油主力合约价差、菜油-豆油主力合约价 差、豆粕菜粕主力合约价差；周内套利对表现相对最弱的三个 头寸分别为：PP-3*MA 主力合约价差、菜油-棕榈油主力合约价 差、铜金主力合约比价。 海外方面，特朗普对等关税方案超出市场预期，且不确定性仍 存。清明假期，外盘风险资产普跌。关税政策对全球经济增速 及商品需求增速呈负面拖累。外资机构下调油价预期。 ★风险提示： 公式中现货标的及常数差异导致的数据失真。 5d[Tabl ...

季度报告——锰硅/硅铁 成本下移，供需宽松 | [Table_Rank] 走势评级： | 锰硅/硅铁：震荡 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 4 日 | 年 | 月 | 3 | [Table_Summary] ★锰硅：锰矿支撑有限，价格回归供需 硅锰方面，虽然港口锰矿库存持续下降，尤其是氧化矿库 存。天津港锰矿库存降至 300 万吨以下，为近几年来的最 低水平。低锰矿库存也在一定程度上支撑了硅锰价格。但 未来仍有一定量的锰矿到港。港口难以延续去库节奏。锰 矿到港增加价格下降，对硅锰支撑有限。供应方面预计仍 将维持在较低水平，关注价格下行后会供应的挤出影响。 ★硅铁：供需偏弱，成本下移 硅铁方面，尽管硅铁成本端呈现持续下行态势，但硅铁价 格也延续了下行节奏，导致硅铁厂利润依然偏低，供应维 持在低位。二季度来看，需求端暂无明显亮点，整体供应 预计将维持现状。若后续价格继续下行，利润进一步收缩， 硅锰开工率可能会出现下降。 ★二季度硅锰、硅铁市场展望 综合来看，铁合金产能过剩状况未变，整体仍呈供需偏宽 松格局，同时成本或有下移，合金价格或延 ...