Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the morning session, driven by the smooth progress of China - US economic and trade negotiations, the major indices of the two markets opened higher, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 4,000 points. The trading volume increased as the market rose. High - growth industries and the stock market are expected to perform well, and the stability of the stock market is crucial for boosting consumer confidence and promoting economic internal circulation [1][2][3] - High - growth industries such as quantum technology, biomanufacturing, and AI are expected to become new economic growth points in the future, with the potential to double the scale of China's high - tech industry in the next 10 years [3] - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese stocks will show a more sustained upward trend in the future, with the MSCI China Index expected to rise by about 30% by the end of 2027 [2] Summary According to the Directory Market Review - The trading volume of the two markets was 2.34 trillion yuan. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4,716 points, up 55 points or 1.18%; the SSE 50 Index closed at 3,069 points, up 23 points or 0.78%; the CSI 500 Index closed at 7,379 points, up 120 points or 1.67%; the CSI 1000 Index closed at 7,495 points, up 76 points or 1.03% [1] - Among industry and theme ETFs, the top gainers were communication equipment ETF, semiconductor equipment ETF, etc., while the top losers were game ETF, real estate ETF, etc. Among the sector indices of the two markets, the top gainers were components, forestry, etc., and the top losers were games, wind power equipment, etc. [1] - The CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI 300, and SSE 50 index futures saw net inflows of 4.2 billion, 3.8 billion, 3.2 billion, and 700 million yuan respectively in the settled funds [1] Important Information - China - US economic and trade teams had in - depth and constructive exchanges on issues such as 301 measures on the maritime logistics and shipbuilding industries, and reached a basic consensus on resolving concerns [1] - From January to September, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. In September, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 21.6% year - on - year [1] - Global investors' stock allocations are continuously rising, approaching the historical high of the 1990s, driven by factors such as excess global liquidity and technological breakthroughs in AI [1] - Tencent's R & D shows that AI has been deeply integrated into its R & D system, with over 90% of engineers using AI programming assistants and 50% of new code generated by AI, boosting overall R & D efficiency by over 20% [1] - Blue Arrow Aerospace's Zhuque - 3 completed pre - flight fueling and static ignition tests, and is scheduled for an orbital launch in November, aiming to be China's first recyclable launch vehicle [1] - OpenAI completed a $15 trillion chip supply deal, showing high execution efficiency and the urgency of the AI computing power race [2] - The AI data center boom is squeezing the US manufacturing industry, with a 18% increase in data center construction spending and a 2.5% contraction in factory construction this year [2] - Google's cloud business won a major order from AI unicorn Anthropic, posing pressure on its competitor Amazon [2] - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Indian refineries are considering reducing Russian crude oil purchases [2] - A Japanese startup launched the world's first yen - linked stablecoin, marking a change in Japan's financial infrastructure [2] - US quantum computing companies achieved technological breakthroughs, and the industry predicts that the "quantum advantage" may be reached in 3 - 5 years, posing a threat to security [2] - The Fed is expected to cut interest rates for the second consecutive time this week, but extending the easing cycle may face opposition from some officials due to inflation concerns [2] Market Logic - Driven by the smooth progress of China - US negotiations, the major indices of the two markets opened higher. In September, the profit of industrial enterprises above designated size increased significantly year - on - year [1][2] - The "15th Five - Year Plan" proposes to strengthen original innovation and key core technology research in key areas such as integrated circuits and industrial mother machines [2] - As the stock market recovers, investor confidence is increasing, driving up residents' property income, highlighting the importance of stabilizing the stock market [2] - Goldman Sachs predicts that Chinese stocks will have a more sustained upward trend in the future [2] Market Outlook - High - growth industries such as quantum technology and AI are expected to become new economic growth points, with the potential to double the scale of China's high - tech industry in the next 10 years [3] - Chinese stocks are attracting more domestic and foreign investors. Stable stock market can boost consumption and strengthen economic internal circulation [3] - Before the China - US summit on October 30, the uncertainty of the details of the agreement may cause market fluctuations. The Shanghai Composite Index may experience sharp fluctuations around 4,000 points [3] Trading Strategies - For futures index trading, before the China - US summit on October 30, wait for a clearer situation at the end of the month. Long positions in index futures should be mainly based on the CSI 300 Index and the SSE 50 Index [3] - For index option trading, wait and see as there may be sharp fluctuations around the 4,000 - point level of the Shanghai Composite Index [3]

Group 1: Market News - Logs hit the daily limit down during intraday trading on October 27, 2025 [1] Group 2: Trade Negotiation - China and the US held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, achieving positive progress on multiple key issues and sending a clear signal to stabilize bilateral economic and trade relations [3] Group 3: Market Impact - Positive signals from China-US trade consultations over the weekend weakened market expectations for future freight rate support, offsetting the bullish effect on log prices [4] - New Zealand is entering the shipping peak season, with domestic arrivals remaining at a normal to high level since October. From mid - to late - October, weekly arrivals have been 12 ships or more. On October 26, arrivals are expected to reach 13 ships, mainly in Shandong Lanshan; on November 2, it is expected to increase to 14 ships, mainly in Lanshan and Taicang, with weekly arrivals close to 500,000 cubic meters [4] - After the holiday, the shipment volume rebounded compared to the holiday period but decreased significantly year - on - year. As of October 17, the average daily total shipment volume in Lanshan and the Yangtze River Delta was 40,800 cubic meters, a 40.1% year - on - year decrease from 68,200 cubic meters last year [4] - Recently, arrivals are high, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. With the end of laminated wood stockpiling, the support for butt log prices has weakened, and spot quotes may be lowered [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the coking coal and coke in the black sector is short - term bearish [1] 2. Core View - Last week, the coking coal and coke showed overall strong performance. However, with short - term positive factors exhausted and negative news emerging, it is expected that the coking coal and coke futures will fluctuate weakly this week [1] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the main contract of coking coal Jm2601 closed at 1259.0, up 5.71% from the weekly opening price; the main contract of coke J2601 closed at 1767.0, up 3.97% from the weekly opening price [1] 3.2 Important News - Chinese President Xi Jinping will attend the 32nd APEC Economic Leaders' Meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea from October 30 to November 1 and pay a state visit to South Korea. The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman said that China and the US are in close communication about a possible meeting between the two leaders [1] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is soliciting public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Iron and Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". It prohibits increasing the total steel production capacity in key areas and restricts the capacity replacement ratio to at least 1.5:1 [1] - Some cities in Hebei, including Tangshan, launched a level - II emergency response for heavy pollution weather. Some steel mills in Tangshan extended sintering machine production restrictions until the end of October and焖炉30% of blast furnace capacity, which is estimated to affect 409,500 tons of hot metal production in 4.5 days [1] 3.3 Market Logic - Last week, the supply of Mongolian coking coal was affected by multiple factors, and the number of trucks passing through Ganqimaodu declined significantly, causing the domestic coking coal spot price to remain strong. The second round of coke price increase was implemented due to cost support. The steel capacity replacement draft restricts the capacity replacement ratio, and some steel mills in Hebei cut production due to environmental protection requirements. With short - term positive factors exhausted and negative news, the coking coal and coke futures are expected to fluctuate weakly [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Close long positions and wait for the market to decline [1]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for different sectors are as follows: - For the agricultural, forestry, and livestock sector, the rating for sugar is "oscillating", for dates is "oscillating with wide amplitude", and for the rubber series in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillating and slightly bullish" [1][4][5]. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar market is weak due to concerns about future supply pressure, with potential for short - term technical rebounds but long - term weakness. The domestic sugar market is relatively resistant to the decline, with a flat short - term fundamental situation. There may be a slight rebound in the short term, but the medium - to - long - term view is bearish [1][3]. - **Dates**: The futures price of dates broke through support and fell back. There is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality, and the market is expected to oscillate widely before large - scale harvesting [4]. - **Rubber Series**: Natural rubber has short - term bullish sentiment due to factors such as macro sentiment and inventory reduction, but the upward space is limited due to expected supply increases. Synthetic rubber is mainly driven by natural rubber, and its own fundamentals lack strong positive support, so it is recommended to view it with an oscillating perspective [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - **Market Review**: On Friday, the SR601 contract closed at 5446 yuan/ton, down 0.20% daily, and the SR605 contract closed at 5398 yuan/ton, down 0.18% daily [1]. - **Important Information**: The ICE raw sugar and London white sugar futures prices declined on Friday. The spot price of Guangxi white sugar increased, and the quotes of sugar - making groups were mostly stable. The number of ships and the quantity of sugar waiting to be shipped in Brazilian ports decreased. Datagro predicted an increase in Brazil's sugar production in the next season, and the global sugar market will have a surplus in 2025/26. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's white sugar warehouse receipts decreased [1]. - **Market Logic**: The international raw sugar market is affected by expected supply increases from Brazil, India, and Thailand. The domestic sugar market is in the off - season for consumption, and the pricing center will gradually return to the domestic market [1]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the SR601 contract, pay attention to the support around 5400 yuan/ton. Upstream enterprises can consider selling for hedging, and there is no arbitrage strategy for now [3]. Dates - **Market Review**: On Friday, the CJ601 contract closed at 10750 yuan/ton, down 3.72% daily, and the CJ605 contract closed at 10655 yuan/ton, down 3.18% daily [4]. - **Important Information**: The physical inventory of 36 sample points increased slightly, the arrival volume in the market decreased slightly, and the prices in some markets were stable or slightly decreased [4]. - **Market Logic**: The futures price of dates fell back, and there is a large dispute over the new - season output and quality. The market is currently gambling on the opening price [4]. - **Trading Strategy**: For the CJ601 contract, pay attention to the previous low support. If it breaks through, liquidate long positions. It is recommended to operate with a light position, and for the long - term, short the CJ605 contract after the opening - price game ends [4]. Rubber Series - **Market Review**: As of October 24, the RU2601 contract closed at 15335 yuan/ton, up 0.59% daily, the NR2512 contract closed at 12505 yuan/ton, up 0.60% daily, and the BR2512 contract closed at 11120 yuan/ton, with no change [5]. - **Important Information**: The prices of Japanese rubber and new rubber futures increased. The prices of raw materials in Thailand and different regions in China, the capacity utilization rates of tire enterprises, and the prices of various rubber products were reported [5]. - **Market Logic**: For natural rubber, the supply is in the peak season, and short - term factors have affected the supply increase speed. The demand from tire enterprises has increased slightly, and the inventory has decreased. For synthetic rubber, the supply pressure is weak, and it is mainly driven by natural rubber [5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold long positions in the RU and NR main contracts and pay attention to the pressure of the upper moving average. Consider taking profits on previous long positions in the BR contract, and those not yet entered the market should wait and see [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, with a warming macro - environment and stronger external vegetable oils, domestic vegetable oils are expected to rise. It is recommended to close previous short positions and enter long positions [1][2] - For two types of meal (bean meal and rapeseed meal), macro - conditions are improving and the rise of US soybeans will drive the domestic double - meal to rebound, but the medium - long - term supply pressure increases, so the rebound space is limited, and wait for short - selling opportunities in the medium - long term [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Vegetable Oils 3.1.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic vegetable oils were pressured by sufficient supply fundamentals, but showed resistance on the technical side. The closing prices and daily position changes of Y2601, Y2605, P2601, P2605, OI2601, and OI2605 contracts of soybeans, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are provided, along with price changes [1] 3.1.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face negotiation since May this year, reaching a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China - NYMEX crude oil futures fell on October 24, but the weekly increase was the largest since mid - June - Brazil may not be able to increase the biodiesel blending ratio from 15% to 16% before March 2026, which may reduce the industrial demand for international soybean oil and drag down CBOT soybean oil - If Indonesia implements the B50 policy, the palm oil used for blending will reach about 17 million tons, 3 million tons more than the current B40 policy, accounting for about 35% of Indonesia's palm oil production - From October 1 - 25, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 0.4% compared to September 1 - 25 - From October 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 2.71% month - on - month - As of the 42nd week of 2025, the total inventory of the three major domestic edible oils decreased by 1.45% week - on - week and increased by 14.13% year - on - year [1] 3.1.3 Market Logic - Externally, the continuous sharp rise of international crude oil last week and the Sino - US phased easing are expected to boost vegetable oils. The Sino - US negotiation result made US soybeans jump, driving up US soybean oil. However, Malaysia's palm oil is pressured by increased production and decreased exports. Domestically, the supply of oilseeds in the fourth quarter is sufficient, the oil mill operating rate rises, and consumption enters a seasonal off - season. The main influencing factor at this stage is macro - factors. Macro conditions are warming, and the strength of external vegetable oils will drive up domestic vegetable oils [2] 3.1.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Enter new long positions. Provide pressure and support levels for Y2601, Y2605, P2601, P2605, OI2601, and OI2605 contracts [2] - Arbitrage: No strategy provided 3.2 Two Types of Meal (Bean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) 3.2.1 Market Review - On October 23, domestic oils fell sharply, and the "buy oil and sell meal" arbitrage was decoded, supporting the double - meal. The closing prices, daily position changes, and price changes of M2601, M2605, RM2601, and RM2605 contracts of bean meal and rapeseed meal are provided [2] 3.2.2 Important Information - On October 27, Sino - US economic and trade teams had their fifth face - to - face negotiation since May this year, reaching a "very substantial framework agreement", and the US "no longer considers" imposing a 100% tariff on China - As of October 20, 2025, the soybean sowing progress in Paraná, Brazil was 52%, and the excellent - good rate was 98% - In September, China's soybean imports reached 12.869 million tons, a record high for the month - The Trump administration may announce a plan to rescue American farmers affected by the trade war and price drops, with preliminary expenditures up to $15 billion - As of the end of October, Brazil's soybean exports are expected to reach 102.2 million tons, exceeding the full - year totals of 2024 and 2023 - As of the 42nd week of 2025, the domestic imported soybean inventory increased, while the domestic bean meal inventory and contract volume decreased. The domestic imported rapeseed inventory, imported and pressed rapeseed meal inventory, and contract volume all decreased [2][3] 3.2.3 Market Logic - Externally, Sino - US reached a good agreement, and the market expects an increase in US soybean exports, causing US soybeans to jump. The market is in a wait - and - see mood on Friday, and both long and short positions reduced. The short - term main contract of Dalian meal is consolidating around 2950 yuan. Domestically, the oil mill's one - price increases slightly with the market, the near - month basis weakens locally, and the domestic bean meal inventory continues to decline. Due to poor压榨 profits, oil mills have weak willingness to purchase in the long - term. Feed enterprises adopt a strategy of replenishing inventory at low prices and giving priority to digesting existing inventory; traders face double pressures of cost inversion and slow sales, and the actual transactions are mainly negotiated, with weak willingness to chase the rise. Macro conditions are warming, and the rise of US soybeans will drive the domestic double - meal to rebound, but the medium - long - term supply pressure increases, so the rebound space is limited [3] 3.2.4 Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously participate in short - term long positions, the rebound space is limited, and wait for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium - long term. Provide pressure and support levels for M2601, M2605, RM2601, and RM2605 contracts [3] - Arbitrage: No strategy provided

早盘提示 Morning session notice 研究员： 于军礼 从业资格： F0247894 交易咨询资格：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 在四中全会公报利好鼓舞下，周五两市主要指数高开上行，科技板块领涨。两市成 | | | | | 交额 1.97 万亿元，上涨放量。沪深 300 指数收 4660 点，涨 54 点，涨幅 1.18%；上 | | | | | 证 50 指数收 3045 点，涨 18 点，涨幅 0.63%；中证 500 指数收 7258 点，涨 115 点， | | | | | 涨幅 1.62%；中证 1000 指数收 7419 点，涨 111 点，涨幅 1.52%。行业与主题 ETF | | | | | 中涨幅居前的是通信设备 ETF、创业板人工智能 ETF 国泰、科创成长 ETF、5G ETF、 | | | | | 科创芯片 ETF 基金，跌幅居前的是酒 ETF、煤炭 ETF、油气 ETF。两市板块指数中涨 | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - High - growth trends are expected for Chinese stocks in the future, and a structural shift of Chinese capital towards stocks may have begun [2]. - The global economy is entering the top - end area due to the continuous wrong policies in the US [2]. Summary by Related Information Macroeconomic and Financial Information - US 9 - month CPI increased 3% year - on - year, below expectations; core inflation rose 0.2% month - on - month, the slowest in three months and lower than the expected 0.3%. Service inflation in September slowed to its weakest level since November 2021 [1]. - US October Markit manufacturing and service PMI climbed, better than expected. Business activities expanded at the second - fastest pace this year, driven by order growth, while companies were more restrained in pricing [1]. - JP Morgan and MUFG are leading multiple banks to launch a $38 billion debt issuance for an Oracle - related data center project, the largest AI infrastructure financing deal [1]. - US Energy Secretary Wright urged FERC to limit data center grid connection approval time to 60 days, which may cause concerns about rising electricity prices [1]. - NVIDIA will use Uber - collected driving data to post - train its Cosmos World base model [1]. - Amazon is launching a new AI tool "Help Me Decide" for US consumers [1]. - Data from US Bank, ADP, and Carlyle Group confirm rising unemployment. Goldman Sachs attributes the slowdown of about 100,000 in employment growth to three reasons [1]. - Japan's September core CPI rose 2.9% year - on - year, exceeding the central bank's 2% target for three years. Most analysts expect the next interest rate hike to be postponed to January next year [1]. - JP Morgan and US Bank strategists expect the Fed to stop shrinking its $6.6 trillion balance sheet at the October FOMC meeting [2]. Global Economic Logic - Goldman Sachs expects more sustained upward trends for Chinese stocks in the future, and a structural shift of Chinese capital towards stocks may have started [2]. - Traders are increasing bets on at least one 50 - basis - point Fed rate cut in the upcoming meetings [2]. - Goldman Sachs believes that although AI infrastructure investment has reached a new high in nominal terms, the current US AI investment accounts for less than 1% of GDP [2]. - Meta and Blue Owl are raising $27 billion through private bonds to build data centers [2]. - DeepSeek launched a revolutionary OCR model to solve the computing power problem of AI in processing long documents [2]. - An Apollo executive warns of a huge gap between AI's energy demand and global power supply [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The third - quarter growth meets expectations, and the bond market continues to fluctuate. The short - term trend of Treasury bond futures may be volatile, and trading - type investments can conduct band operations [2][44][45] 3. Summary by Relevant Content Treasury Bond Futures and Bond Market - This week, Treasury bond futures fluctuated slightly downward, while the Wind All - A Index fluctuated slightly upward. The 30 - year Treasury bond fell 0.62%, the 10 - year Treasury bond fell 0.24%, the 5 - year Treasury bond fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year Treasury bond fell 0.04% [4] - As of October 24, compared with October 17, the Treasury bond spot yield curve shifted slightly upward as a whole, with a slightly larger upward movement at the long end. The 2 - year Treasury bond yield remained flat at 1.49%, the 5 - year yield rose 3 BPs to 1.62%, the 10 - year yield rose 3 BPs to 1.85%, and the 30 - year yield rose 1 BP to 2.21% [6] Macroeconomic Data - In the third quarter, China's GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, in line with market expectations. In the first three quarters, GDP grew 5.2% year - on - year [9] - From January to September, national fixed - asset investment decreased 0.5% year - on - year, lower than market expectations. General infrastructure investment (including electricity) grew 3.3%, narrow - based infrastructure investment (excluding electricity) grew 1.1%, manufacturing investment grew 4.0%, and real estate development investment decreased 13.9% [12] - From January to September, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a 5.5% year - on - year decrease, and the sales volume was 6.304 trillion yuan, a 7.9% year - on - year decrease. In September, the sales of newly built commercial housing accelerated their decline [14] - In September, the sales price of second - hand residential properties in first - tier cities decreased 1.0% month - on - month, and the decline in second - and third - tier cities expanded. The real estate sales price is still in the bottom - building process [17] - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 419.71 billion yuan, a 3.0% year - on - year increase, lower than market expectations. From January to September, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased 4.5% year - on - year [19] - In September, the service retail sales increased 5.2% year - on - year from January to September, and the national service production index increased 5.6% year - on - year, the same as in August [24][26] - In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased 6.5% year - on - year, higher than market expectations. From January to September, it increased 6.2% year - on - year [29] - In September, the product sales rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 96.7%, a 0.7 - percentage - point year - on - year increase. In the third quarter, the capacity utilization rate of industrial enterprises above designated size was 74.6%, the lowest in the same period since 2017 [32][34] - In September, the national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%, a 0.1 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month [37] Capital Market and Policy - This week, the capital interest rate remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.317%, and that of DR007 was 1.429%. The LPR remained unchanged in October [41] - Recently, the central government has allocated 500 billion yuan from the local government debt balance limit to local areas, and a new round of China - US economic and trade consultations will be held on October 24 [44]

Report Overview - Report Title: "Spot Regional Differentiation, Corn Focus on Low-Long Opportunities; Pig Prices Start Bottoming, Futures Trading for Basis Repair; Strong Expectation but Weak Reality, Eggs Focus on Regression Repair" - Report Date: October 24, 2025 - Researcher: Zhang Xiaojun - Contact Information: 0371 - 65617380 - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F0242716 - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011864 [2][3] Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views - Corn: Spot prices show regional differentiation, with Northeast China rebounding from a decline and North China relatively weak. There are low-long opportunities, and a range trading strategy is recommended in the medium and long term [5][7]. - Pigs: Pig prices are starting to bottom out, and the futures market is trading for basis repair. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic, while far-term contracts will trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity [9][11]. - Eggs: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality. Eggs should focus on regression repair. Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained [14][15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Important Information - On the 24th, the purchase price of deep-processing enterprises in Northeast China was 2015 yuan/ton, and in North China it was 2230 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan/ton from the previous day. The prices at north and south ports were mainly weak and stable [5]. - As of October 24, the number of corn futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged from the previous day, totaling 61,968 [5]. - The wheat-corn price difference in Shandong was +270 yuan/ton as of October 23 [5]. - More than 60% of the autumn grain harvest nationwide is complete. The purchase by the China Grain Reserves Corporation in Northeast China has supported the market sentiment, and the autumn harvest in North China is accelerating [5]. Market Logic - Short term: The spot price in Northeast China has stopped falling and stabilized, while North China is stable with a weak trend. Attention should be paid to the impact of continuous rain in North China on yield and grain quality. The lower support for the futures price is in the range of 2050 - 2100 yuan/ton, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat-corn price difference [6]. - Medium term: Band trading should be carried out around the drivers of new-season corn, focusing on the opening price of new grain, farmers' selling sentiment, and downstream inventory building efforts. A wide-range trading strategy is recommended [6]. - Long term: The pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost is maintained, and policy guidance should be closely monitored [6]. Trading Strategy - In the medium and long term, a range trading strategy is maintained. Pay attention to the low-long opportunities of the 2601 contract after a pullback to test the support level at 2100. The first pressure level is 2150, and the second is 2160 - 2170 [7]. Pigs Important Information - On the 24th, the national average pig price was 11.74 yuan/kg, up 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous day. It is expected that the pig price will be weak in the north and stable in the south on the morning of the 25th [9]. - In September 2025, the number of fertile sows was 40.35 million, a quarterly decrease of 0.2%, still 103.46% of the normal level. The number of new-born piglets in the first half of the year was at a historical high, indicating an increasing supply of pigs in the second half of the year [9]. - As of October 23, the average slaughter weight of pigs was 124.6 kg, an increase of 0.09 kg from the previous week [13]. - On October 24, the price difference between fat and lean pigs was 0.32 yuan/jin, an increase of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous day [13]. - On October 24, the number of pig futures warehouse receipts increased by 95 to 206 [13]. Market Logic - Short term: After a rapid decline, pig prices have stopped falling and rebounded, and the spot market may enter a low-level shock bottoming stage. The futures market will continue the basis repair logic [10]. - Medium term: The number of new-born piglets from February to June increased month-on-month, indicating an expected increase in pig supply in the second half of the year, which limits the rise in pig prices [10]. - Long term: The number of fertile sows is still higher than the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased year-on-year. If there is no impact from epidemics, the pig production capacity will continue to be realized throughout the year [10]. Trading Strategy - The policy guidance on sow de-capacity can only affect the pig supply from the second half of next year. Near-term contracts will follow the supply-demand logic. It is recommended to stop losses on previous short positions and wait and see. Far-term contracts should trade on the expected difference in sow de-capacity, and pay attention to the actual change in sow inventory. Do not be overly bullish on far-term contracts before obvious sow de-capacity occurs [11]. - For the 2601 contract, the support level is 11300 - 11500, and the pressure level is 12300 - 12500. For the 2603 contract, the support is 11000 - 11200, and the pressure is 11700 - 11800. For the 2605 contract, the support is 11800 - 11900, and the pressure is 12200 - 12300. For the 2607 contract, the support is 12400 - 12600, and the pressure is 12800 - 13000 [11]. Eggs Important Information - On the 24th, the main line of egg spot prices rose slightly, and the low-price areas were stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.9 yuan/jin, up 0.07 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas it was 3.25 yuan/jin, up 0.04 yuan/jin [14]. - On the 24th, the inventory level was stable with a slight increase. The average production link inventory nationwide was 1.04 days, up 0.01 days from the previous day, and the circulation link inventory was 1.1 days, unchanged from the previous day [14]. - On the 24th, the average price of old hens was 4.1 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day. As of October 23, the weekly culling age of old hens was 499 days, unchanged from the previous week [14]. - In September, the number of laying hens in the country was about 1.368 billion, a month-on-month increase of 0.22% and a year-on-year increase of 6.05%. The theoretical estimated number of laying hens in October is 1.36 billion, a month-on-month decrease of 0.56% [14]. Market Logic - Short term: Egg prices have fallen to a low level, and downstream inventory replenishment has driven the inventory down, causing egg prices to stop falling and rebound [14]. - Medium term: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the short term remains unchanged. The culling age of chickens is still high, the supply pressure of eggs has not been significantly released, and the short-term downstream consumption is relatively weak. It is expected that the spot price will lack continuous upward momentum. When the inventory stops falling and starts to rise, the spot price will be weak. Attention should be paid to the intensity and scale of chicken culling driven by low prices [14]. - Long term: The continuous increase in the scale of egg chicken farming may extend the price bottoming cycle. Wait patiently for the de-capacity process driven by excessive culling in the farming sector [15]. Trading Strategy - Before large-scale concentrated chicken culling occurs, a high-short strategy is maintained. Near-term contracts will continue the basis repair logic. The futures market rose significantly in the last two trading days of this week, but there is no substantial bullish driver in the fundamentals. It was suggested in the morning report on Friday to consider stopping profits on previous short positions. In the situation of strong expectation but weak reality, it is recommended to wait and see and wait for trading opportunities when the fundamentals and the market sentiment resonate [15].

Global Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs expects a more sustained upward trend in Chinese stocks in the future, and the structural shift of Chinese capital into stocks may have begun. The willingness of Chinese market entities to settle foreign exchange has significantly increased. Traders are increasing bets that the Fed will implement at least one 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in its meeting later this month or in December [4] - Although AI infrastructure investment has reached a record high in nominal terms, compared with historical technology cycles, it is not exaggerated. Currently, US AI investment accounts for less than 1% of GDP [4] - Meta has joined hands with private - equity giant Blue Owl to raise $27 billion through the issuance of private bonds to build data centers. DeepSeek has launched a revolutionary OCR model to solve the computing power problem of AI in processing long documents [4] - An executive at Apollo Global Management warns that there is a huge gap between the huge energy demand of artificial intelligence and the current global power supply, and this gap may not be filled in our lifetime [4] - Due to the continuous wrong policies of the US, the global economy is entering the top - region [5] - After the US imposed reciprocal tariffs on various countries, the competitiveness of Chinese goods has increased, and the US imports from China in August increased by nearly 40% month - on - month [6] - The US Market manufacturing PMI in September was 52.0, continuing to expand [9] - In August, the US manufacturing unfilled orders were at a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 7.1%, indicating high business sentiment [12] - The US capital goods import amount in August was $91.9 billion, still at a high level, and the year - on - year growth rate was 10.5%, indicating that the US manufacturing industry is accelerating its return and the US "re - industrialization" is speeding up [15] - The US wholesalers' sales in August were $711.3 billion, a record high, with a year - on - year increase of 6.2%, indicating strong US consumption [18] - The total retail and food sales in the US in August increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations, showing strong US consumption [21] - The eurozone's manufacturing PMI slightly contracted in September, while the service - sector PMI accelerated its expansion [24] - India's manufacturing and service - sector PMIs continued to expand in September, and India's manufacturing and service industries have maintained expansion for more than three years [26] - The upward trend of Japan's long - term government bond yields has not changed [29] Asset Allocation - The Fed is expected to continue cutting interest rates in October [31] - Wait for the Sino - US agreement at the end of the month in the context of Sino - US game [32] - The market's defensive state has not ended, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 Index, representing the value style, has reached a new high. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th CPC Central Committee's communiqué emphasizes seizing the high - ground of scientific and technological development, and the technology sector has become active again. Policies are favorable to semiconductor equipment ETFs and science and technology innovation chip ETFs [33] - AI infrastructure drives a rapid increase in power demand, leading to a stronger copper price [34][47] - The container shipping European line 2512 contract has entered the seasonal peak season [35][50] - Awaited for the clarity of the Sino - US agreement at the end of the month, the CSI 300 Index is both offensive and defensive, and the stock - index allocation is mainly long positions in CSI 300 stock - index futures [39] Lithium Carbonate Market - The growth rate of lithium carbonate demand is much higher than the production growth rate. In October 2025, the planned production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries in the Chinese market was 186 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 22.4% and a year - on - year increase of 45.3%. The planned production of lithium - battery A was 61.3 GWh, lithium - battery B was 30.9 GWh, and lithium - battery C was 13 GWh. The planned production of energy - storage cells accounted for about 40.3%, and the planned production of ternary cells accounted for about 15%. The average operating rate of the lithium - battery industry was close to 90%, and the production lines of leading enterprises were operating at full capacity [41] - In October 2025, the total production of power + energy - storage + consumer batteries in the global market was about 205 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 25.8%. Currently, the increased production of domestic spodumene and salt - lake lithium mines offsets the reduction in lithium - mine production, but the total supply has not increased, while the demand has increased significantly, resulting in nine consecutive weeks of inventory reduction, which will continue in the future [42] - PwC reports that in 2026, thanks to the explosive growth of energy - storage and the continuous growth of power batteries, the total demand for lithium carbonate will reach 2.05 million tons of LCE, a year - on - year increase of 35% compared with 1.55 million tons in 2025 [42] - The expansion of lithium carbonate production capacity is expected to slow down significantly in 2026, with an expected growth of only about 10%, and the new supply will be difficult to match the continuously high - speed growth in demand [43] - The surge in energy - storage demand, with the demand growth rate of lithium carbonate far exceeding the production growth rate, has pushed up the price of lithium carbonate [44]