研究员：于军礼 从业资格号：Ｆ0247894 交易咨询号：Z0000112 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com 资料来源：WIND 格林大华研究院 股指期货方向交易：A股市场的中长期低点大概率已经出现，A股有望走出独立行情。四大股指中长期看多，淡化短 期波动。 股指期权交易：择机买入四大股指的远月深虚值看涨期权。 【行情复盘】 本周沪深两市主要指数横向整理，市场成交额持续收缩，4月18日周五成交额缩减至9100亿元，显示市场抛盘趋于 衰竭。股指期货远月合约收贴水。 【重要资讯】 1、商务部等9部门联合印发《服务消费提质惠民行动2025年工作方案》，提出48条具体任务举措，既涵盖了餐饮、 住宿、健康、文化娱乐、旅游休闲、体育赛事等主要行业领域，也包括了旅游列车、超高清电视、微短剧等新业 态、新场景。 2、我国险资长期股票投资试点规模总量已增至1620亿元，参与试点的保险司也从2家增至8家。随着泰康稳行的申 请获批，预计约120亿元新增长期资金有望在近期进入股市，此外，还有1000亿元长期资金有望逐步入市。 【股指交易策略】 3、至4月13日，股票型ETF总份额再次突破2万亿份，达到20427.13 ...

| 12 | 全国 | 10 | 9 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黑龙江 | | 山东 | 云南 | 宁夏 | 河南 | 安徽 | 贵州 | 新疆 | 陕西 | 山西 | 内蒙古 | 地区 | | 541 | 44058 | 803 | 821 | 887 | 938 | 960 | 1383 | 5147 | 6924 | 11383 | 12364 | 2025年3月 2024年3月 | | 389 | 39933 | 739 | 763 | 908 | 902 | 928 | 1259 | 4146 | 6459 | 9433 | 12117 | | | 39. 13% | 10. 33% | 8.70% | 7.57% | -2.32% | 4.01% | 3.47% | 9.87% | 24. 13% | 7.20% | 20. 68% | 2.04% | 同比变化 | | | | | ...

市场快讯 -- 工业硅盘面跌破8800,谨慎跟空 2025年4月18日 4月18日工业硅开盘后持续弱势运行,跌破8900后颓势不减,截至写稿,盘面最低至 8755元/吨。 工业硅价格走势 多晶硅价格走势 > 工业硅及多晶硅开盘大幅跳空 > 基本面弱势,下游需求持续表现菱靡,行业供需矛盾持续加深 工业硅:工业硅下游需求表现萎靡。受到进出口政策影响,有机硅行业价格近期持续 大幅下跌,有机硅行业悲观情绪浓厚,行业或将进一步调整生产节奏,对工业硅需求 有大幅减弱预期;光伏行业430政策时间节点临近,终端需求迅速下滑,硅片及电池 报价下行,多晶硅价格大幅跳水,行业对于430后终端需求多持有悲观情绪,目前行 业自律协议下的低开工率或将再度下调,对工业硅雷求持续减弱。供应方面,由于外 贸市场多有悲观观点,目前工业硅主力05合约为西南平水期,06合约进入丰水期,西 南地区开工后外贸企业"出口转内需"对于行业目前供需矛盾将有进一步加深。需求 低迷叠加供应过剩,冲击市场情绪,导致价格持续下行,顺利跌破行业计算8900的成 本逻辑支撑线,悲观情绪带动下品种有所超跌,投资谨慎跟空。 格林大华 期货研究所 证监许可 2011 1288 ...

期货研究院 格林大华期货研究院专题报告 农林畜 2025年04月18日 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格证号：F0242716 交易咨询证号：Z0011864 联系方式： 0371-65617380 题目 2025年一季度末生猪产业数据的相关 思考 目录 格林大华期货交易咨询业务资格： 1、'同比增长'有效意义不足 证监许可【2011】1288号 2、能繁母猪数据的问题与思考 正文： 4月16日上午，2025年一季度国民经济运行情况新闻发布会上公布了我国一季度生猪产业 相关数据，具体如下： 成文时间：2025年04月18日星期五 问题1: 2月末能繁母猪存栏4066万头、 3月末4039万头，能 够说明环比减少吗？ 问题2: 2023年一季度末能繁母猪存栏为4305万头、24年12 月末为4078万头，今年3月末能繁母猪存栏4039万头，相比 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 24年末以及23年3月减少，能说明产能去化吗？ 思考1）当前仔猪、肥猪持续盈利，主动去产能驱动尚不充分 ，或可考虑季节性疫病影响。 思考2） 生产效率提升理论上对应所需母猪头数减少，但生 产效率提升对应供给如何量化？ 期货研究院 格林大 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 4 月 18 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | SM2509 合约收于 5902，环比上一交易日收盘上涨 0.1%。SF2506 合约收于 5658，环比上 一交易日收盘下跌 0.49%。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国务院总理李强在主持国务院第十三次专题学习时指出，在一些关键的时间窗口， | | | | | 推动各方面政策措施早出手、快出手；要把握政策力度，必要时敢于打破常规，打好"组 | | | | | 合拳"。 | | | | | 2、本周，五大钢材品种供应 872.71 万吨，周环比增加 1.65 万吨，增幅 0.2%；总库存 | | 黑色 | 硅铁锰 | 震荡偏空 | 1584.68 万吨，周环比降 75.93 万吨，降幅 4 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Energy and Chemical Industry: The investment rating for both soda ash and glass is "Bearish" [1][2] 2) Core Viewpoints - The market for soda ash and glass is currently under pressure. Soda ash production and inventory levels, along with glass production and inventory trends, combined with macro - economic factors and weak downstream demand, contribute to the bearish outlook. Traders are advised to short after significant rebounds [1][2] 3) Summary by Relevant Content Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The main contract of soda ash futures has completed the roll - over to SA2509. Yesterday, the futures price fluctuated, with the settlement price down 1 point (0.07%), and an increase in positions by 59,409 lots, closing at 1358, below the 60 - day moving average. The night session closed slightly lower at 1347 [1] - **Important Information**: US tariff policy fluctuations affect the market, causing international market turmoil. The spot market is stable. This week, soda ash production was 755,600 tons, a 2.42% increase from the previous week. As of April 17, 2025, the total domestic soda ash inventory was 1.7113 million tons, a 0.19% decrease from Monday [1] - **Market Logic**: Soda ash plants are operating normally with no maintenance plans. Production and operating rates remain high, while downstream demand is lackluster, resulting in a weak short - term market [1] - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a significant rebound. The support level for the SA2509 contract is 1250, and the first and second resistance levels are 1480 and 1650 respectively [1] Glass - **Market Performance**: The main contract of glass futures has switched to FG2509. Yesterday, the futures price declined, with the settlement price down 18 points (1.52%), and an increase in positions by 114,870 lots, closing at 1166, below the 60 - day moving average. The night session closed sharply lower at 1137, hitting a new low [2] - **Important Information**: US tariff policy impacts the market. The spot price of float glass yesterday was 1277 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton from the previous day. As of April 17, 2025, the daily production of national float glass was 158,500 tons, unchanged from the 10th. This week's production was 1.1093 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and 8.98% lower than the same period last year. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 65.078 million weight boxes, a 0.19% decrease from the previous period [2] - **Market Logic**: Sales in some areas are mediocre, especially in the Shahe region. Traders are cautious, and downstream procurement is mainly for immediate needs. Short - term supply and demand are stable, with a slight reduction in inventory [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short after a significant rebound. The support level for the FG2509 contract is 1000 - 1050, and the resistance levels are 1350 and 1520 [2]

| | 2025年4月11日 | 2025年4月4日 | 变化 | 幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 美国商业原油库存(千桶) | 442.860 | 442.345 | 515 | 0.12% | | 库欣原油库存(千桶) | 25,105 | 25,759 | -654 | -2.54% | | 美国汽油库存(千桶) | 234.019 | 235.977 | -1.958 | -0.83% | | 美国馏分油库存(千桶) | 109,231 | 111,082 | -1.851 | -1.67% | | 美国油品总库存(千桶) | 1,208,625 | 1,210,700 | -2.075 | -0.17% | | 美国战略石油储备库存(千桶) | 397.009 | 396,710 | 299 | 0.08% | | 美国炼厂开工率(%) | 86.3 | 86.7 | -0.4 | -0.46% | | 美国原油产量(千桶/日) | 13.462 | 13.458 | 4 | 0.03% | | 美国原油进口量(千桶/日) | 6.001 | 6,189 ...

Morning session notice 联系方式：19339940612 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 昨日 SR505 合约收盘价 6063 元/吨，日涨幅 0.05%。夜盘收于 6082 元/吨。SR509 合 约收盘价 5884 元/吨，日跌幅 0.20%，夜盘收 5913 元/吨。 【重要资讯】 1.ICE 原糖 5 月合约昨日收报 17.73 美分/磅，日涨幅 1.72%。伦白糖收 497.7 美元/ 吨，日涨幅 1.34%。 2.广西农业气象灾害风险预警：预计未来十天桂中、桂南大部蔗区甘蔗干旱灾害风 险达中风险至高风险等级。 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 农林畜 | 白糖 | 震荡 | 3.巴西对外贸易秘书处（Secex）公布的出口数据显示，巴西 4 月前两周出口糖和糖 蜜 63.29 万吨，较去年同期的 104.39 万吨同比减少 41.1 万吨，降幅 39.37%；日均 出口量为 7.03 万吨。 4.截至 2025 年 3 月底，全国累计产糖 1075 万吨，同比增 117 万吨；累计销糖 600 万吨，同比增 126 万吨 ...

2025 4 16 OÆ 0L 4Ò ¼" EþA H F 3063825 ±,´ CRo o 1†¼CW o 1†• ) â FG )ß ³,´ F Ä ¼ " Ö ] - - * 6Î Κ־Ε³ 0 " ÖΜ'd A Η ÈΜΦ±μ ΜΟ1 5 ＾ ?± Z0016580 0 " Ö] - - * 6<" Î K¯ l i uyang18036@ar eendh. 6<" ÎK¯ com 9" Ö • E³ - ,´ )ß" Î K¯ È Î )à ¶ 0 L 4ÒÄ 8 - È ˜ - * ÊCt x ÅCt <" Î K¯ 8 ¯ y * * ÅCt Ä [ +eË Å <" Î K¯ È 8 Î K¯ È 2011 1288 Q Î FOÈ o ` x 0 ÅCtE³ } T Z 8 L} u ? u ™ W Ä 2025 4 16 8 - Ș - à * v ñ o K0^ M'0 <" ; Լ} 8 : z 8 <" ; L} Լ}ＦＯÖΕ³ ё ¤ 1\ " Ö 5CÈ ý X/ ÅE÷0; ] Ä ú ¤ 0 " Ö o { à 0 M'0 <" 5 5 Wu ; L} È o ` x 0 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - In Q1 2025, the supply of live pigs was higher than that in 2024 but lower than the same period in 2023. The increase in pork production due to higher slaughter weights compensated for the supply shortage in terms of headcount, resulting in a slightly higher pork supply than in Q1 2023. Weight remains an important variable driving the supply side of live pigs this year and should be closely monitored [3] Summary by Relevant Catalog - **Production Data**: In Q1 2025, the output of pork, beef, and poultry increased by 1.2%, 2.7%, and 5.1% respectively, while mutton output decreased by 5.1%. Milk output increased by 1.7%, and egg output decreased by 0.1%. The total output of pork, beef, mutton, and poultry was 25.4 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.0% [3] - **Inventory and Slaughter Data**: At the end of Q1 2025, the inventory of live pigs was 417.31 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%. In Q1 2025, the number of slaughtered live pigs was 194.76 million heads, a year-on-year increase of 0.1% [3] - **Output Calculation**: Based on the pork output of 15.83 million tons in Q1 2024, the pork output in Q1 2025 was estimated to be about 16.02 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.2% and an increase of 0.75% compared to Q1 2023 [3]