Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Steel and Ore Expected to Fluctuate Widely" [2] - Date of Report: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Ji Xiaoyun [3] - Contact Information: 010 - 56711796 [3] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Certificate Number: F3066027 [3] - Futures Trading Consultation Number: Z0011402 [3] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views - Steel and ore are expected to show a volatile trend. Short - term long positions are recommended, but the upside space is expected to be limited. Long - term holding is not advised, and stop - losses should be set. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3050, and the resistance level is 3200. The support level for the iron ore main contract is 770, and the resistance level is 830 [4]. Group 4: Steel Market Analysis Supply - This week, the total supply of the five major steel products was 819.59 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The output structure of steel products has differentiated, with an increase in building materials production and a decrease in plate and coil production. Rebar production increased by 9.25 tons this week, mainly due to the resumption of some production lines in central China. Hot - rolled coil production decreased slightly by 2.55 tons due to a steel mill's maintenance in North China and slow output recovery in East China [11][20]. Demand - From the perspective of winter storage demand, downstream winter storage willingness is average, mostly with a cautious attitude, and the winter storage volume may decrease compared to last year. The current market's psychological winter storage price is concentrated at 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton, which is relatively close to the current spot price. In terms of rigid demand, the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coil has limited room for further improvement. As the pre - holiday demand seasonally weakens, the inventory pressure on steel products may further accumulate. Currently, there is no obvious driver for the finished product prices, and they fluctuate following the raw material prices [4]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1257.08 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10.07 tons, an increase of 0.8%. Building materials showed inventory accumulation of 14.87 tons, while plates showed inventory reduction of 4.8 tons. Rebar inventory in steel mills increased by 6.32 tons, with significant increases in central and northern China. In terms of social inventory, rebar inventory increased in East, South, and North China, with the most obvious increase in North China. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased in the north and increased in the other two major regions, with the most obvious inventory reduction in central China [11][20]. Group 5: Iron Ore Market Analysis Supply - This week, iron ore prices first fell and then rebounded, with the main contract falling below 800. The global iron ore shipments decreased, and the arrival volume also declined. Domestic mine output increased, and the inventory of imported iron ore at ports continued to accumulate. From January 12th to 18th, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2897.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.3 tons; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2659.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 260.7 tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1442.9 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 26.3 tons. The total global iron ore shipments were 2929.8 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 251.1 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 16555.10 tons, a week - on - week increase of 279.84 tons [4][24]. Demand - The average daily hot metal output this week was 228.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.09 tons. The steel mill profitability rate was 40.69%, an increase of 0.9% [4]. Group 6: Winter Storage Analysis Time and Cycle - Winter storage usually starts from late November to mid - December (about 8 weeks before the Spring Festival) and ends in early March of the following year (about 4 weeks after the Spring Festival), with a cycle of about 12 weeks [14]. Policy Price and Basis - The current winter storage policy price is 3050 - 3150 yuan/ton, and the basis is - 30~+30 yuan/ton. According to Mysteel's research, the winter storage willingness of traders is only 42%. Steel mills have few policies, mainly post - settlement/price - setting [17].

证监许可【2011】1288号 报告 美国流动性冲击利多中国A股 2026年1月23日 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 1月20日周二晚，美国遭遇股债汇三杀 数据来源：WIND，格林大华期货 本次流动性冲击的震源是日本长债收益率的飙升，源于日本政府激进的财政政策，减半征收 食品消费税，投资者质疑日本财政的可持续性，抛售日本长债 0.000 0.500 1.000 1.500 2.000 2.500 3.000 3.500 4.000 2019-01-04 2020-01-04 2021-01-04 2022-01-04 2023-01-04 2024-01-04 2025-01-04 2026-01-04 日本40年期国债收益率（%） -0.500 -0.250 0.000 0.250 0.500 0.750 1.000 1.250 1.500 1.750 2.000 2.250 2.500 2019-10-01 2020-10-01 2021-10-01 20 ...

格林大华期货 我们专注期货研究 2026年01月23日 08:55 星期五 研究院《市场快讯 -- 成本支撑带动昨夜BR强势涨停》 昨夜丁二烯橡胶（BR）主力合约强势涨停，收盘价12930元/吨。丁二烯作为BR最 主要的原料来源，其价格直接影响BR期现价格走势。自25年12月以来，BR期价便在 丁二烯的带动下持续走强。近期受进口船货到港有限和下游产品开工率较高因素影 响，丁二烯港口库存明显减少，部分生产企业还有外售丁二烯货源的情况出现，反映 出当下丁二烯基本面的强势表现。同时中期来看，今年上半年丁二烯无新增装置投 产，加剧市场对其供应紧缺的担忧。此外，近期资金快速流向能化板块也令橡胶品种 迎来资金助推。 综合来看, 昨夜丁二烯橡胶涨停主要是受原料+资金共同作用的结果，其自身供需情 况并未出现明显变动。短期由于丁二烯货源偏紧，预计仍会对BR价格形成提振，交 易层面主要警惕情绪释放后的回调风险。 研究员：李方磊 联系方式：19339940612 期货交易咨询号: Z0021311 格林大华期货研究院-证监许可【2011】1288号 免责声明：本内容及数据结果仅供交流参考，不构成任何投资建议，投资者据此操作，风险自 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - As of January 16, US crude, gasoline, and diesel inventories all exceeded expectations, leading to a significant cooling of market sentiment after a rebound due to cold wave speculation in the previous two trading days. Supply - overhang pressure restricts the enthusiasm of capital chasing up prices. With geopolitical risks slightly easing, it is difficult for oil prices to break through the upside space, but geopolitical risks have not completely disappeared [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents US Crude and Product Inventory Data - US commercial crude inventory increased by 3,602 thousand barrels (0.85%) to 426,049 thousand barrels as of January 16 compared to January 9 [1][2]. - Cushing crude inventory increased by 1,478 thousand barrels (6.27%) to 25,063 thousand barrels [2]. - US gasoline inventory increased by 5,977 thousand barrels (2.38%) to 256,990 thousand barrels [2]. - US distillate inventory increased by 3,348 thousand barrels (2.59%) to 132,592 thousand barrels [2]. - US total oil product inventory increased by 7,538 thousand barrels (0.58%) to 1,307,633 thousand barrels [2]. - US strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 806 thousand barrels (0.19%) to 414,484 thousand barrels [2]. US Refinery and Production - Related Data - US refinery utilization rate decreased by 2.0 percentage points (-2.10%) to 93.3% [2]. - US crude oil production decreased by 21 thousand barrels per day (-0.15%) to 13,732 thousand barrels per day [1][2]. - US crude oil imports decreased by 645 thousand barrels per day (-9.09%) to 6,447 thousand barrels per day [2]. - US crude oil exports decreased by 618 thousand barrels per day (-14.35%) to 3,688 thousand barrels per day [2].

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 23 日星期五 研究员： 张晓君 从业资格：F0242716 交易咨询资格：Z0011864 联系方式：0371-65617380 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 昨日夜盘玉米期货震荡整理，截至夜盘收盘主力合约2603合约涨幅0.13%，收于228 | | | | | 9元/吨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、今日锦州港收购价格稳中偏强，主流收购价为2300-2305元/吨（15%水、700容重 | | | | | ），前一日2290-2300元/吨。 | | | | | 2、1月22日山东地区深加工企业厂门到货为878辆，较前一日减少224辆。 | | | | | 3、大商所数据显示截至1月22日，玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日增加75手，累计5 | | | | | 0347手。 | | | ...

| | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | 周四螺纹热卷收涨。夜盘收涨。 | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月新能源汽车产量 179.1 万辆，同比增长 8.7%； | | | | | 1-12 月产量 1652.4 万辆，同比增长 25.1%。 | | | | | 2、国家统计局数据显示，2025 年 12 月，中国原煤产量为 43703.5 万吨，同比下降 | | | | | 1.0%；1-12 月累计产量 483178.2 万吨，同比增长 1.2%。 | | | | | 从分省数据来看，2025 年 1-12 月山西、内蒙古和陕西原煤产量累计同比分别增长 | | | | | 2.1%、-1.0%和 2.9%。 | | | | | 3、2026 年 1 月 22 日，国家统计局最新数据显示，2025 年 12 月，我国挖掘机产量 | | | | | 37305 台，同比增长 20.8%。2025 年全年，我国挖掘机产量 379643 台，同比增长 ...

2026 年 1 月 23 日星期五 研究员：纪晓云 从业资格：F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 【行情复盘】 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 昨日焦煤主力合约 Jm2605 收于 1126.0，环比日盘开盘下跌 0.27%；焦炭主力合 J2605 | | | | | 收于 1685.5，环比日盘开盘上涨 0.12%。昨日夜盘，焦煤主力收于 1134.5，环比日盘收 | | | | | 盘上涨 0.27%，焦炭主力合约收于 1694.0，环比日盘收盘上涨 0.36% | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、央行行长潘功胜表示，2026 年，中国人民银行将继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策， | | | | | 把促进经济稳定增长、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量。今年降准降息还有一定 | | | | | 的空间 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For vegetable oils, the US biodiesel policy boosts global vegetable oil prices. Palm oil and soybean oil stop falling and rebound, while rapeseed oil bottoms out and stabilizes. With the US interest - rate cut, the financial attributes of vegetable oils are enhanced, and it is advisable to adopt a long - term bullish strategy of buying on dips for soybean and palm oils, and hold short - term long positions for rapeseed oil, paying attention to its rebound strength [2]. - For double - meal (soybean meal and rapeseed meal), the near - month contracts should be treated with a rebound mindset, and the opportunity to lay out new short positions for the 09 contracts should be awaited after the rebound [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Vegetable Oils Market Performance - On January 22, vegetable oils continued their strong trend with a large inflow of funds. Palm oil led the vegetable oil sector. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding increases in positions [1]. Important Information - On January 21, NYMEX crude oil futures rose due to supply concerns, with the more active March contract up $0.26 or 0.4% to $60.62 per barrel [1]. - The Trump administration is expected to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas in early March, and the EPA is considering setting biodiesel usage between 5.2 and 5.6 billion gallons [1]. - Indonesia cancelled the plan to increase the biodiesel blending ratio to 50% (B50) this year and will maintain the current 40% ratio [1]. - Indian buyers locked in large - scale soybean oil purchases from April to July 2026, 150,000 tons per month of South American soybean oil [1]. - From January 1 - 20, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month, while exports increased by 11.4% [1]. - Indonesia's 2026 biodiesel total allocation is 15.65 billion liters, an increase of about 30 million liters from 2025 [1]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, the total inventory of the three major edible oils in China decreased by 38,300 tons week - on - week, a 1.79% decrease [2]. Market Logic - Externally, the US biodiesel policy makes US soybean oil oscillate strongly. In Malaysia, good export data and concerns about supply boost palm oil prices. Domestically, soybean oil news is mixed, palm oil benefits from the US biodiesel policy and improved export data, and rapeseed oil follows related oils in a wide - range oscillation [2]. Trading Strategy - For single - side trading, continue to hold existing long positions in soybean and palm oils, and slightly enter long positions in rapeseed oil. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [2]. - For arbitrage, exit the previously concerned strategy of expanding the soybean - palm oil price spread [2]. Double - Meal (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) Market Performance - On January 22, due to pre - festival stockpiling, soybean meal inventory decreased, and previous short positions left the market, resulting in a technical rebound. The closing prices of major and secondary contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal all increased compared to the previous day, with corresponding changes in positions [2]. Important Information - Since the Sino - US trade truce in late October, China has purchased about 12 million tons of US soybeans, fulfilling the commitment ahead of schedule [3]. - In January 2026, Brazil's soybean export volume is estimated to be 3.79 million tons, higher than the previous estimate and a 238% increase from the same period last year [3]. - StoneX predicts that Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production may reach 178.9 million tons, higher than the USDA's estimate [3]. - As of January 16, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress was 1.39%, faster than the same period in previous years [3]. - As of December 30, Argentina's 2025/26 soybean sowing was 82% complete, and the growth status was good [3]. - Safras & Mercado predicts that Brazil's 2026 soybean export volume will be 105 million tons, a 3% decrease from last year [3]. - As of the 3rd weekend of 2026, China's imported soybean inventory decreased, and soybean meal and rapeseed meal inventories also changed [3]. - The January 13 import soybean auction had a 100% transaction rate [3]. Market Logic - Externally, slow South American soybean harvests strengthen US soybean futures prices. Domestically, oil - mill prices rise with the market, and downstream buyers are active in stockpiling. The impact of Sino - Canadian trade relations on rapeseed meal supply and demand is limited in the short term. With short - position funds leaving the market, Zhengzhou rapeseed meal rebounds, but the overall bullish sentiment is cautious [4]. Trading Strategy - Operate the 05 contracts of double - meal with a rebound mindset, and wait for the opportunity to lay out short positions for the 09 contracts after the rebound. Provide support and resistance levels for each contract [4]. - There is currently no arbitrage strategy [4].

Group 1 - Report title: "Market Flash - Cost Support Drove BR to a Strong Limit Up Last Night" [2] - Report date: January 23, 2026 [2] - Researcher: Li Fanglei [4] - Contact information: 19339940612 [4] - Futures trading consultation number: Z0021311 [4] Group 2 - The closing price of the main contract of butadiene rubber (BR) was 12,930 yuan/ton last night, with a strong limit up [3] - Since December 2025, the BR futures price has been rising driven by butadiene [3] - Recently, due to limited arrival of imported ships and high operating rates of downstream products, the port inventory of butadiene has significantly decreased, reflecting the strong fundamentals of butadiene [3] - In the medium term, there will be no new butadiene production plants put into operation in the first half of this year, increasing concerns about supply shortages [3] - Recently, funds have rapidly flowed into the energy and chemical sector, boosting rubber varieties [3] - The limit up of butadiene rubber last night was mainly due to the combined effect of raw materials and funds, and its own supply - demand situation has not changed significantly [3] - In the short term, the tight supply of butadiene is expected to boost the BR price, and traders should be vigilant against the callback risk after the release of emotions [3]

Morning session notice 早盘提示 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 01 月 23 日星期五 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 研究员： 王子健 从业资格：F03087965 交易咨询资格：Z0019551 联系方式：17803978037 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ICE3 | 月合约结算价 | 63.88 | 跌 | 42 | 点，5 | 月 | 65.49 | 跌 | 43 | 点，7 | 月 | 66.97 | 跌 | 43 | 点；成 | 交约 | 5.8 | 万手。 | | 郑棉总成交 | 395 ...