【冠通期货研究报告】 铁矿日报：商品情绪走弱，期现价格承压 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情态势回顾 1、期货价格：铁矿石期货主力合约日内震荡偏弱，收于 768.5 元/吨，较 前一个交易日收盘价下跌-13 元/吨，跌幅-1.66%，成交 33.2 万手，持仓量 52.5 万手，沉淀资金 88.78 亿。短期破位之后，呈现一定偏弱。 2、现货价格：港口现货主流品种青岛港 PB 粉 775 跌-9，超特粉 660 跌- 9，掉期主力 100.75(-1.4)美元/吨。现货、掉期价格小幅回落。 3、基差价差端：青岛港 PB 粉折盘面价格 812.6 元/吨，基差 44.1 元/吨， 基差小幅收缩；铁矿 5-9 价差 17.5 元，铁矿 9-1 价差 10 元，铁矿期货合约呈 现 back 结构+正基差，但短期稍显破位偏弱。 二、基本面梳理 海外矿山发运环比增加，主要是巴西发运明显恢复；本期到港继续走弱， 前期发运下降传导至到港，由于天气影响供给端存扰动预期；需求端，铁水产 量环比略降，钢厂盈利率有所走弱，刚需偏稳，春节临近钢厂补库加速，随着 补库推进，对价格的支撑可能逐渐弱化。库存方面，港口继 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cyclical bottom of soybeans has emerged with limited room for subsequent decline, and soybeans are expected to continue in a volatile trend. Corn is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations before the Spring Festival, and it can still be considered for buying on dips if there is a significant decline [1]. - The national egg market prices have stabilized in many places but are still falling locally. There is no obvious short - term driver, and excessive bearishness is not recommended. The Spring Festival is the darkest time for live pigs, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows to construct a supply - demand balance sheet for the far - month [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Categories Soybeans - Low - protein soybeans in the Northeast region have stable prices, with limited grassroots inventory and strong price - holding mentality. High - protein soybeans are in short supply, with high - quality products commanding higher prices, and some 39% protein - content commodity beans are priced around 2.2 yuan per catty [1]. - On February 2nd, 60,608 tons of 2022 - produced reserve soybeans were auctioned in places like Jiayin, Shangzhi, and Hulunbuir, all of which were sold at an average price of 4,297.6 yuan per ton and a maximum premium of 310 yuan per ton. However, the high - price acceptance in the overall market remains weak [1]. Corn - The Northeast corn market has entered a small peak of pre - festival grain sales. With increased supply and decreased demand, the price trend is weak. In Shandong, the grain sales progress has exceeded 50%. The market supply increment is limited, and the price is slightly stronger. Corn is expected to fluctuate widely before the festival, and buying on dips can be considered in case of a large decline [1]. Eggs - Egg prices in the national market have stabilized in many places but are still falling locally. The inventory days in the production link in February are estimated to average about 2.50 days, with the monthly inventory center significantly higher than that in January, which will have a phased impact on prices. There is no obvious short - term driver, and excessive bearishness is not recommended [2]. Pigs - At the end of 2025, the number of reproductive sows was 39.61 million, a decrease of 1.16 million or 2.9%. The number of live pigs slaughtered in 2025 was 719.73 million, an increase of 17.16 million or 2.4%. At the end of 2025, the live pig inventory was 429.67 million, an increase of 2.24 million or 0.5% [2]. - From late January to early February, as the pre - festival slaughter window narrows, concentrated slaughter may drive pig prices further down. The Spring Festival is the darkest time for live pigs, and subsequent attention should be paid to the regulation of reproductive sows [2][3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish and volatile rating for the natural rubber industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension. Currently, inventory is high, and the bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao are starting to be depleted. The expected decrease in arrivals in the next few months will relieve inventory pressure. However, as the holiday approaches, the tire production capacity utilization rate is gradually declining, and the short - term natural rubber price will run with a bearish and volatile trend [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,175 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.86%. The market declined that day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF 2024 source in the Shanghai market was 15,900 - 15,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the spot market followed suit. The downstream inquiry atmosphere was average and the market transactions were light. In the producing areas, the spot price decreased slightly while the trading volume was low [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the natural rubber supply showed a downward trend both at home and abroad. Yunnan and Hainan producing areas have fully suspended tapping. Overseas, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam is normal, with northern Thailand having suspended tapping, northeastern Thailand and Vietnam's producing areas approaching the end of the tapping season, and southern Thailand in the peak - production season. Global supply will gradually shift from the peak to the off - season, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken. However, there was still a concentrated arrival in late January in China, and the enthusiasm for rubber purchase by factories was limited after Hainan's suspension. With the supply pressure easing and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, the raw material price is expected to remain strong, and the cost - side support for rubber is relatively strong. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production should gradually decline starting from January, and it is very likely to decline in the first quarter. Also, according to past rules, the rubber import volume in January and February is likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, China's semi - steel tire production rate was 74.84%, higher than the historical average of the same period; the all - steel tire production rate was 62.44%, also higher than the historical average. Recently, due to the high prices of various raw materials, some sample enterprises began to arrange the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which led to a decline in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In the tire market, the terminal demand for all - steel tires remained weak. In the short term, inventory replenishment was still cautious. Considering the expected small peak of semi - steel tire shipments before the festival, the overall replenishment enthusiasm was still slightly better than that of all - steel tires. All - steel tire shipments were slow and the finished product inventory was high, so some enterprises might moderately reduce production [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in the sample warehouses in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, with an accelerating inventory accumulation speed. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63%; the general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89%. Although the arrival volume of natural rubber decreased and the downstream operating load was reduced, supply exceeded demand, resulting in inventory accumulation in Qingdao [6] 5. Basis - As of February 4, compared with the rubber spot price with Yunnan as the benchmark, the basis was - 285 yuan/ton. In terms of absolute value, it was lower than the annual average basis, at a historical low and with room for expansion [7]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 短线震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 60 均线附近。 成交量较昨日减 47.5 万手，持仓量较昨日减 36791 手；日内最高 1227，最低 1201，收盘 1209，（较昨结算价）跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.82%。 2，现货市场：弱稳震荡。企业装置运行稳定，供应维持高位徘徊。下游需 求表需平平，采购积极性不佳，保持随用随采刚需为主。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 2 月 5 日，国内纯碱产量 77.43 万吨，环比下降 0.88 万吨， 跌幅 1.12%。其中，轻碱产量 36.03 万吨，环比下降 0.17 万吨；重碱产量 41.40 万吨，环比下降 0.71 万吨。综合产能利用率 83.25%，上周 84.19%，环比下降 0.94%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.21%，环比下降 0.78%；联产产能利用率 77.23%， 环比增加 2.58%。16 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 86.47%， ...

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【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report have been postponed. China's non - ferrous metal industry plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some copper smelting projects. In January, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but it is expected to decline in February. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market performed poorly. The Chilean National Copper Commission has raised the 2026 copper price forecast. In the short term, the copper market is under pressure due to the approaching holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but it is expected to be strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The US has postponed the release of January non - farm payrolls and CPI reports. China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some smelting projects. The 1 - month SMM China electrolytic copper output was 117.93 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. It is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month in February but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the new energy market was affected by purchase tax, while traditional and power industries showed resilience. The Chilean National Copper Commission raised the 2026 copper price forecast to $4.95 per pound. In the short term, the market is under pressure due to the holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 75 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 130 yuan/ton. On February 4, 2026, the LME official price was $13328/ton, and the spot premium was - 81 dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 16.07 million tons, an increase of 907 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 9.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.06 million tons, an increase of 1925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 58.42 thousand short tons, an increase of 1892 short tons from the previous period [12]

【冠通期货研究报告】 现货方面：昨天期货盘面翻红，今日现货市场试探性小涨，但面临假期收 单，涨价不畅。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。 尿素日报：面对假期前吸单压力 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌。昨天期货盘面翻红，今日现货市场试探性 小涨，但面临假期收单，涨价不畅。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出 厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，近期新 增两家气头装置复产，按照目前日均产量测算，1 月份产量预计在 628 万吨， 高于往年同期水平。临近过年，上游工厂吸单压力增大，预计春节前待发不断 提高，若无利好，现货预计有降价吸单的计划。本期复合肥开工小规模提升， 环保预警解除但假期前提升受限，等开年后逐渐进入农耕旺季，下游工厂对于 尿素需求将进入年内高峰期，届时下游拿货有回暖。本期库存数据继续减少， 主要系农业提货导致，且临近过年，下游备货增多，预计年前库存去化为主， 后续假期库存将有增加。今日大宗商品普遍下跌，尿素需求偏弱运行，一方面 临近假期需求边际减 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 2月5日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例 下降至27.5%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，伊朗地 缘局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购，原油价 格反弹。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定， 但其新增订单有限。PP供需格局改善有限，1月底现货跟进有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，上游石化 库存偏低，目前基差有所修复，预计PP区间震荡。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高， 叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价差回落。盘面波动大，注意控制风险。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡下行，最低价6658元/吨，最高价6788元/吨，最终收盘 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：自身驱动不足，盘面下行 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内高开高走，日内下挫。春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假期，部分 大型煤矿库存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核 定产能利用率为 86.67%，环比减少 2.46%。原煤日均产量达到 192.53 万吨。假 期临近，矿山安全检查及停产增多，下游冬储备货收尾中，矿山焦煤库存去 化，周度环比减少 2.53 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存 将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声阶段，下游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比 减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万吨。据外媒援引印尼行业官员 2 月 3 日表 示，由于印尼政府提议大规模削减煤炭产量，部分印尼矿商已暂停现货煤炭出 口，亚洲买家暂时难以获得印尼煤炭供应。印尼暂停出口消息扰动后，今日整 体大宗商品偏弱，黑色系同样承压，焦煤本身利多驱动不足，临近假期，供需 双弱节奏下，趋势性行情发生可能性低，关注本轮大宗市场轮动。 【现 ...