Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a bearish and volatile rating for the natural rubber industry [1] Core Viewpoint - Fundamentally, the supply is shrinking as northern Thailand and north - central Vietnam transition to reduced production and suspension. Currently, inventory is high, and the bonded and general trade inventories of natural rubber in Qingdao are starting to be depleted. The expected decrease in arrivals in the next few months will relieve inventory pressure. However, as the holiday approaches, the tire production capacity utilization rate is gradually declining, and the short - term natural rubber price will run with a bearish and volatile trend [8] Summary by Directory 1. Market Performance - On February 4, the closing price of the main natural rubber contract was 16,175 yuan/ton, with a daily change of - 0.86%. The market declined that day. The intended transaction price of the mainstream SCRWF 2024 source in the Shanghai market was 15,900 - 15,950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 150 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the intended transaction price of the mainstream Vietnamese 3L mixed rubber was 16,550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The futures market was weak, and the spot market followed suit. The downstream inquiry atmosphere was average and the market transactions were light. In the producing areas, the spot price decreased slightly while the trading volume was low [1] 2. Supply - Last week, the natural rubber supply showed a downward trend both at home and abroad. Yunnan and Hainan producing areas have fully suspended tapping. Overseas, the weather in Thailand and Vietnam is normal, with northern Thailand having suspended tapping, northeastern Thailand and Vietnam's producing areas approaching the end of the tapping season, and southern Thailand in the peak - production season. Global supply will gradually shift from the peak to the off - season, and the supply pressure will gradually weaken. However, there was still a concentrated arrival in late January in China, and the enthusiasm for rubber purchase by factories was limited after Hainan's suspension. With the supply pressure easing and raw material stockpiling by upstream factories, the raw material price is expected to remain strong, and the cost - side support for rubber is relatively strong. According to the production rules of ANRPC members, production should gradually decline starting from January, and it is very likely to decline in the first quarter. Also, according to past rules, the rubber import volume in January and February is likely to decline [2] 3. Demand - On January 30, 2026, China's semi - steel tire production rate was 74.84%, higher than the historical average of the same period; the all - steel tire production rate was 62.44%, also higher than the historical average. Recently, due to the high prices of various raw materials, some sample enterprises began to arrange the Spring Festival holiday from late January to early February, which led to a decline in the overall production capacity utilization rate. In the tire market, the terminal demand for all - steel tires remained weak. In the short term, inventory replenishment was still cautious. Considering the expected small peak of semi - steel tire shipments before the festival, the overall replenishment enthusiasm was still slightly better than that of all - steel tires. All - steel tire shipments were slow and the finished product inventory was high, so some enterprises might moderately reduce production [3] 4. Inventory - As of the end of January, the inventory of natural rubber in the sample warehouses in Qingdao was 591,200 tons, an increase of 71,800 tons or 13.82% from the end of December 2025, with an accelerating inventory accumulation speed. Among them, the inventory in the bonded area was 105,700 tons, an increase of 20,200 tons or 23.63%; the general trade inventory was 485,500 tons, an increase of 51,600 tons or 11.89%. Although the arrival volume of natural rubber decreased and the downstream operating load was reduced, supply exceeded demand, resulting in inventory accumulation in Qingdao [6] 5. Basis - As of February 4, compared with the rubber spot price with Yunnan as the benchmark, the basis was - 285 yuan/ton. In terms of absolute value, it was lower than the annual average basis, at a historical low and with room for expansion [7]

【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报：短期震荡 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：纯碱主力低开低走，日内走弱。120 分钟布林带走紧口喇叭， 短线震荡信号，盘中压力关注布林带上轨附近，支撑关注日线的 60 均线附近。 成交量较昨日减 47.5 万手，持仓量较昨日减 36791 手；日内最高 1227，最低 1201，收盘 1209，（较昨结算价）跌 10 元/吨，跌幅 0.82%。 2，现货市场：弱稳震荡。企业装置运行稳定，供应维持高位徘徊。下游需 求表需平平，采购积极性不佳，保持随用随采刚需为主。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 2 月 5 日，国内纯碱产量 77.43 万吨，环比下降 0.88 万吨， 跌幅 1.12%。其中，轻碱产量 36.03 万吨，环比下降 0.17 万吨；重碱产量 41.40 万吨，环比下降 0.71 万吨。综合产能利用率 83.25%，上周 84.19%，环比下降 0.94%。其中氨碱产能利用率 88.21%，环比下降 0.78%；联产产能利用率 77.23%， 环比增加 2.58%。16 家年产能百万吨及以上规模企业整体产能利用率 86.47%， ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于安云思、肥易通、国家统计局、隆众资讯、金十数 据、EIA、OPEC、IEA 等。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 苏妙达，执业资格证号 F03104403/Z0018167。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 每日核心期货品种分析 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 商品表现 数据来源:Wind、冠通研究咨询部 期市综述 截止 2 月 5 日收盘，国内期货主力合约跌多涨少，沪银、碳酸锂跌超 10 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PVC日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 上游西北地区电石价格稳定。目前供应端，PVC开工率环比增加0.19个百分点至78.93%，PVC开工 率小幅增加，处于近年同期中性水平。临近春节，PVC下游开工率环比下降0.11个百分点，下游主动 备货意愿偏低。出口方面，受取消出口退税影响，市场出现抢出口现象，加之美国面临寒潮冲击， PVC企业赶在春节假期前提前预售，国内出口签单继续环比走高，中国台湾台塑PVC 2月份出口船货报 价上涨40美元/吨。上周社会库存继续增加，目前仍偏高，库存压力仍然较大。2025年1-12月份，房 地产仍在调整阶段，投资、新开工、施工、竣工面积同比降幅仍较大，投资、销售、竣工等同比增 速进一步下降。30大中城市商品房周度成交面积环比回升，但仍处于近年同期偏低水平，房地产改 善仍需时间。氯碱综合毛利承压，部分生产企业开工预期下降，但目前产量下降有限，本周福建万 华、山东恒通仍在检修，PVC开工率变化不大，期货仓单仍处高位。2月是国内PVC传统需求淡季，临 近春节假期，下游采购积极性一般，社会库存继续增加。生态环境部表示将聚焦无汞催化剂研发攻 关 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The Shanghai copper market opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The release dates of the US January non - farm payrolls report and CPI report have been postponed. China's non - ferrous metal industry plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some copper smelting projects. In January, the output of electrolytic copper in China increased, but it is expected to decline in February. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the terminal new energy market performed poorly. The Chilean National Copper Commission has raised the 2026 copper price forecast. In the short term, the copper market is under pressure due to the approaching holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but it is expected to be strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. The US has postponed the release of January non - farm payrolls and CPI reports. China plans to improve the copper resource reserve system and may have halted some smelting projects. The 1 - month SMM China electrolytic copper output was 117.93 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 16.32%. It is expected to decrease by 3.04% month - on - month in February but increase by 8.06% year - on - year. High copper prices in January suppressed demand, and the new energy market was affected by purchase tax, while traditional and power industries showed resilience. The Chilean National Copper Commission raised the 2026 copper price forecast to $4.95 per pound. In the short term, the market is under pressure due to the holiday demand vacuum and inventory accumulation, but strong in the long - term due to supply tightness [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened lower and moved lower, with an intraday decline of nearly 4%. Spot: The spot premium in East China was - 75 yuan/ton, and in South China was - 130 yuan/ton. On February 4, 2026, the LME official price was $13328/ton, and the spot premium was - 81 dollars/ton [3] Supply Side - As of February 3, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.3 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.22 cents/pound [8] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 16.07 million tons, an increase of 907 tons from the previous period. As of February 2, Shanghai bonded area copper inventory was 9.03 million tons, a decrease of 0.86 million tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 18.06 million tons, an increase of 1925 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 58.42 thousand short tons, an increase of 1892 short tons from the previous period [12]

【冠通期货研究报告】 现货方面：昨天期货盘面翻红，今日现货市场试探性小涨，但面临假期收 单，涨价不畅。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。 尿素日报：面对假期前吸单压力 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素低开低走，日内下跌。昨天期货盘面翻红，今日现货市场试探性 小涨，但面临假期收单，涨价不畅。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出 厂报价范围多在 1700-1760 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，近期新 增两家气头装置复产，按照目前日均产量测算，1 月份产量预计在 628 万吨， 高于往年同期水平。临近过年，上游工厂吸单压力增大，预计春节前待发不断 提高，若无利好，现货预计有降价吸单的计划。本期复合肥开工小规模提升， 环保预警解除但假期前提升受限，等开年后逐渐进入农耕旺季，下游工厂对于 尿素需求将进入年内高峰期，届时下游拿货有回暖。本期库存数据继续减少， 主要系农业提货导致，且临近过年，下游备货增多，预计年前库存去化为主， 后续假期库存将有增加。今日大宗商品普遍下跌，尿素需求偏弱运行，一方面 临近假期需求边际减 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 PP日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2026年2月5日 【行情分析】 截至1月30日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.79个百分点至52.08%，处于历年农历同期中性水平。 其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比持平于42.04%，但塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年同期。 2月5日，检修装置变动不大，PP企业开工率维持在80%左右，处于中性偏低水平，标品拉丝生产比例 下降至27.5%左右。1月底，石化去库较快，目前石化库存处于近年同期偏低水平。成本端，伊朗地 缘局势反复，美国降低对印度加征的关税，印度炼厂或将增加中东和美洲地区的原油采购，原油价 格反弹。近期检修装置略有减少。下游BOPP膜价格继续反弹，临近春节放假，下游塑编开工率稳定， 但其新增订单有限。PP供需格局改善有限，1月底现货跟进有限，但化工反内卷仍有预期，上游石化 库存偏低，目前基差有所修复，预计PP区间震荡。由于塑料近日有新增产能投产，开工率较PP高， 叠加地膜集中需求尚未开启，预计L-PP价差回落。盘面波动大，注意控制风险。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2605合约减仓震荡下行，最低价6658元/吨，最高价6788元/吨，最终收盘 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 焦煤日报：自身驱动不足，盘面下行 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 5 日 【行情分析】 焦煤日内高开高走，日内下挫。春节临近，国内矿山逐渐开启假期，部分 大型煤矿库存假期内继续发运，国内据 Mysteel 统计 523 家炼焦煤矿山样本核 定产能利用率为 86.67%，环比减少 2.46%。原煤日均产量达到 192.53 万吨。假 期临近，矿山安全检查及停产增多，下游冬储备货收尾中，矿山焦煤库存去 化，周度环比减少 2.53 万吨，上周焦化企业累库 57.08 万吨，钢厂累库 11.12 万吨，冬储补库进程环比上周加快，距离春节假期依然有两周备货时间，库存 将继续下沉，目前已接近尾声阶段，下游钢材成交量不佳，下游铁水产量环比 减少 0.12%，周度日均产量 227.98 万吨。据外媒援引印尼行业官员 2 月 3 日表 示，由于印尼政府提议大规模削减煤炭产量，部分印尼矿商已暂停现货煤炭出 口，亚洲买家暂时难以获得印尼煤炭供应。印尼暂停出口消息扰动后，今日整 体大宗商品偏弱，黑色系同样承压，焦煤本身利多驱动不足，临近假期，供需 双弱节奏下，趋势性行情发生可能性低，关注本轮大宗市场轮动。 【现 ...

Hot News - Iran's Foreign Minister Araqchi clarified Iran's official stance on the talks with the US in Oman, stating that the negotiations will be held in Muscat around 10 am on February 6. The US previously rejected Iran's proposal to change the meeting location from Istanbul, Turkey, to Oman, causing concern in the Middle East [2] - The US Bureau of Labor Statistics announced that it will release the January non - farm payroll report on February 11, job vacancy data on February 5, and reschedule the release of the January CPI inflation report to February 13 [2] - A Reuters survey showed that due to a surge in exports during the seasonal production slowdown, Malaysia's palm oil inventory will end a 10 - month growth streak in January. Palm oil inventory is expected to drop to 2.91 million tons, a 4.64% decrease from December. Production is expected to fall 12% to 1.61 million tons, the third consecutive monthly decline, but it may still be the highest January production since 2019 [2] - Chinese President Xi Jinping had a phone call with US President Trump. Xi emphasized that the Taiwan issue is the most important issue in Sino - US relations, and the US must handle arms sales to Taiwan carefully [3] - EIA report data showed that in the week ending January 30, commercial crude oil inventories excluding strategic reserves decreased by 3.455 million barrels to 420 million barrels, a 0.82% decline. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 214,000 barrels to 415.2 million barrels, a 0.05% increase [3] Key Focus - The commodities to focus on are urea, coking coal, platinum, crude oil, and Shanghai copper [4] Night - session Performance Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.09% increase; precious metals had a 34.97% increase; oilseeds and fats had an 8.21% increase; soft commodities had a 2.41% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 26.35% increase; coal, coke, steel, and minerals had a 10.07% increase; energy had a 2.32% increase; chemicals had a 9.89% increase; grains had a 0.97% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 2.73% increase [4] Sector Position - The data shows the position changes of commodity futures sectors in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemicals, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes Equity - The Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly decrease of 0.38%, and a year - to - date increase of 3.36%; the SSE 50 had a daily increase of 1.14%, a monthly increase of 0.09%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.26%; the CSI 300 had a daily increase of 0.83%, a monthly decrease of 0.16%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.48%; the CSI 500 had a daily increase of 0.15%, a monthly decrease of 0.85%, and a year - to - date increase of 11.16%; the S&P 500 had a daily decrease of 0.51%, a monthly decrease of 0.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.54%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 0.05%, a monthly decrease of 1.97%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.75%; the German DAX had a daily decrease of 0.72%, a monthly increase of 0.26%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.46%; the Nikkei 225 had a daily decrease of 0.78%, a monthly increase of 1.82%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.85%; the UK FTSE 100 had a daily increase of 0.85%, a monthly increase of 1.75%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74% [6] Fixed - income - The 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.01%, a monthly decrease of 0.06%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.35%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.04%, a monthly decrease of 0.04%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.09%; the 2 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.02%, a monthly increase of 0.00%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.05% [6] Commodities - The CRB commodity index had a daily increase of 0.91%, a monthly decrease of 2.24%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.74%; WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 1.90%, a monthly decrease of 1.90%, and a year - to - date increase of 12.02%; London spot gold had a daily increase of 0.38%, a monthly increase of 1.74%, and a year - to - date increase of 14.97%; LME copper had a daily decrease of 3.25%, a monthly decrease of 0.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 4.35%; the Wind commodity index had a daily increase of 6.68%, a monthly decrease of 10.35%, and a year - to - date increase of 24.00% [6] Others - The US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.27%, a monthly increase of 0.55%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.63%; the CBOE volatility index had a daily increase of 0.00%, a monthly increase of 3.21%, and a year - to - date increase of 20.40% [6] Main Commodity Trends - The report presents the trends of various commodities such as the Baltic Dry Index, CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, LME copper, CBOT soybeans, and CBOT corn, as well as stock market risk preferences and risk premiums [7]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期：2026/2/5 隔夜夜盘市场走势 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 1.国内商品期市日盘多数收涨，贵金属涨幅居前，沪银涨超 11%，沪金涨超 7%， 铂金、钯金均涨超 6%。基本金属、新能源材料、能源品、黑色系多数上涨，沪锡 涨 5%，多晶硅涨超 4%。夜盘收盘，原油期货主力合约涨逾 3%，沪银涨逾 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期 ...