Report Summary 1. Overnight Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 0.04% at $3381.70 per ounce, down 3.14% for the week, and COMEX silver futures down 0.13% at $38.02 per ounce, down 1.35% for the week [2] - Oil prices were under pressure due to looser supply - demand and fading geopolitical premiums. The U.S. crude oil main contract fell 1.28% to $63.14 per barrel, down 1.16% for the week; Brent crude oil main contract fell 1.06% to $66.13 per barrel, down 0.69% for the week [2] - Most London base metals declined, with LME zinc down 1.83%, down 1.08% for the week; LME aluminum down 0.63%, down 0.23% for the week; LME lead down 0.43%, down 1.32% for the week; LME copper down 0.06%, down 0.02% for the week; LME tin up 0.44%, down 0.04% for the week; LME nickel up 1.09%, up 0.26% for the week [2] - As of the close at 23:00 on the 15th, most domestic futures main contracts rose. Palm oil and coking coal rose more than 2%, and coke, glass, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose more than 1%. Methanol, soda ash, and ethylene glycol fell slightly [3] 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - In July, consumer prices showed positive changes, with the month - on - month change turning from decline to increase, and the year - on - year increase of core CPI continuously expanding. The national economy maintained a stable and progressive development trend, with industrial added value, service production index, and social consumer goods retail sales growing year - on - year [5] - An analyst expects the central bank to continue injecting medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases in August and may cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates around the beginning of the fourth quarter [5] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and match the growth of social financing and money supply with economic growth and price level targets [5] - Trump will determine tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with potential rates of 200% or 300% [6] Energy and Chemical Futures - The CSRC approved the registration of offset printing paper futures and options on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and fuel oil, petroleum asphalt, and pulp options [8][10] - The China Nitrogen Fertilizer Industry Association emphasized controlling production capacity and output and balancing domestic and international markets in the second half of the year [10] - In the 33rd week (August 9 - 15), the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%, 30,500 tons lower than expected [10] Metal Futures - The quotes of first - tier photovoltaic module enterprises reached $0.7 per watt, and there was a shortage of 710W large - format modules. The market price of polysilicon increased, and costs decreased [12] - Many photovoltaic enterprises were notified to participate in a symposium on August 19 [13] - Last week, copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, and nickel inventories on the SHFE increased, while tin inventory decreased [14] - There were rumors about polysilicon production and sales restrictions, but a head of a silicon material enterprise did not confirm the information [15] - An analyst believes there will be reasons to cut interest rates several times this year due to a softening job market and still - high inflation [15] Black - Series Futures - Some steel enterprises in Tangshan will stop production from August 20 to September 6 due to environmental protection [17] - In July, China's steel output increased year - on - year, while crude steel output decreased. Real estate development investment and construction area declined [17] - Iron ore inventories at ports increased, and the number of ships in port decreased. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased slightly, while daily hot metal output increased [17][19] - A steel company in Liaoning will conduct a 20 - day maintenance on a blast furnace, affecting daily hot metal output by about 15,000 tons [20] - China sued Canada at the WTO for its import restrictions on steel products [20] - In late July, the output of key coal enterprises decreased. The total inventory of steel in cities increased this week [20][21] - The U.S. expanded the scope of a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports [22] Agricultural Product Futures - The breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs decreased, while the loss of purchasing piglets for breeding increased [24] - Malaysia's palm oil exports from August 1 - 15 increased compared to the same period last month [26] - The inventory of imported cotton at main ports decreased [27] - In the second half of July, Brazil's sugarcane crushing volume and sugar output decreased year - on - year [27] 3. Financial Market Finance - As the market strengthened, the number of doubled stocks in A - shares increased. There were 310 stocks with a gain of over 100% this year, and the number of low - price stocks decreased [29] - CITIC Securities recommended focusing on five strong industries: innovative drugs, resources, communications, military, and games, and corresponding ETFs [29] - Some funds established during the previous bull market have recovered, but there is a significant performance gap among them [29][31] - The performance of private stock funds has recovered, but some subjective private stock funds are facing redemptions [31] - The performance of public FOFs has improved, with most achieving positive returns this year [31] - Some well - known private fund managers have adjusted their positions. 22 out of 25 North Exchange listed companies achieved year - on - year revenue growth in the first half of 2025 [32] - China Shenhua will resume trading on August 18 and plans a large - scale asset integration [32][34] Industry - The 2025 World Humanoid Robot Games ended successfully, and the World Humanoid Robot Sports Federation was established [35] - 8 out of 13 wealth management companies saw an increase in the scale of their wealth management products in the first half of 2025, with one having a 64.83% increase [35] - Chongqing added 300 million yuan for automobile replacement subsidies in the third quarter. Hainan released a three - year action plan for high - quality development of marine tourism [35][36] - Wuhan suspended its automobile replacement policy on August 19. A compressed air energy storage technology was successfully verified in Hunan [36][38] - A large - scale shale gas field in Chongqing was confirmed, and the express delivery industry in China has developed rapidly this year [38][39] Overseas - The U.S. and Russia's leaders' meeting made progress, and Trump shifted his stance on the Russia - Ukraine conflict. The EU is preparing the 19th round of sanctions against Russia [40] - The U.S. trade negotiation representative canceled a trip to India, and the EU plans to mobilize citizens' bank deposits for investment [41] International Stock Market - Citi recommended an overweight position in stocks (especially U.S. and to some extent European stocks), an underweight position in UK stocks, a neutral position in government bonds, an overweight position in emerging - market bonds, an underweight position in Japanese government bonds, an underweight position in European and U.S. investment - grade credit, a neutral position in commodities, shorting the U.S. dollar, and going long on the euro and some emerging - market currencies [42] Commodity - Hong Kong is promoting the construction of a commodity trading ecosystem and aims to become an international gold trading center [43] Bond - The first four company bonds were re - issued on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and more companies are preparing for bond re - issuance [44] 4. Upcoming Economic Data and Events Economic Data - Upcoming economic data include the UK's August Rightmove average house asking price index, Japan's June tertiary industry activity index, Switzerland's second - quarter industrial output, etc. [47] Events - The People's Bank of China has 112 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. The 2025 Global Smart Education Conference will be held from August 18 - 20. The expanded U.S. tariff list on steel and aluminum imports takes effect on August 18. Earnings reports of some companies will be released [49]

Hot News - In July, CPI showed positive changes, with the month-on-month change turning from decline to increase, and the year-on-year increase of core CPI expanding continuously [1] - In July, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.7% year-on-year, the national service production index increased by 5.8% year-on-year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7% year-on-year, indicating a stable and progressive development of the national economy [1] - In August, the central bank will continue to inject medium-term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchase, and may implement another RRR cut and interest rate cut around the beginning of the fourth quarter [1] - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy, maintain adequate liquidity, and ensure that the growth of social financing scale and money supply matches the economic growth and price level targets [2] - Trump plans to determine the tariffs on steel and chips in the next one or two weeks, with a possible tax rate of 200% or 300% [2] Key Focus - The sectors to focus on are coking coal, palm oil, methanol, soda ash, and glass [3] Night Session Performance - The night session performance shows that the non-metallic building materials sector rose 2.89%, the precious metals sector rose 26.74%, the oilseeds sector rose 12.96%, the non-ferrous metals sector rose 21.30%, the soft commodities sector rose 2.47%, the coal, coke, and steel ore sector rose 14.70%, the energy sector rose 3.35%, the chemical sector rose 11.55%, the grain sector rose 1.17%, and the agricultural and sideline products sector rose 2.87% [3] Sector Positions - The data shows the changes in the positions of various commodity futures sectors in the past five days [4] Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% daily, 3.46% monthly, and 10.29% annually; the S&P 500 fell 0.29% daily, rose 1.74% monthly, and rose 9.66% annually; the Hang Seng Index fell 0.98% daily, rose 2.01% monthly, and rose 25.97% annually [5] - In the fixed-income market, the 10-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.05% daily, 0.18% monthly, and 0.58% annually; the 5-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.02% daily, 0.06% monthly, and 0.83% annually [5] - In the commodity market, WTI crude oil fell 1.24% daily, 8.74% monthly, and 12.17% annually; London spot gold rose 0.01% daily, 1.39% monthly, and 27.10% annually [5] - Other assets include the US dollar index, which fell 0.36% daily, 2.20% monthly, and 9.80% annually; the CBOE Volatility Index rose 1.75% daily, fell 9.75% monthly, and fell 13.03% annually [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - **Copper**: Macroeconomic factors show the US PPI rising significantly, while the supply of copper concentrates is increasing, and the demand is weak. The copper price remains in a narrow - range fluctuation, waiting for market drivers [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Due to the production reduction of CATL, the supply is expected to shrink, and the demand is in a small peak season. The price of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - **Crude Oil**: Entering the end of the seasonal travel peak, the inventory of oil products is increasing. OPEC + plans to increase production in September, and the possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is rising. The medium - and long - term downward pressure on crude oil prices is increasing, and the short - term volatility is large [10]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is increasing, the demand is restricted by funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to close short positions temporarily [11][12]. - **PP**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak, and it is about to enter the peak season. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - **Plastic**: The supply is increasing, the demand is in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is large. It is expected to fluctuate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - **PVC**: The supply is increasing, the demand is not improved, and the inventory is high. It is expected to fluctuate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - **Coking Coal**: After continuous price increases, the market sentiment cools down, and the price fluctuates at a high level [18]. - **Urea**: The demand is weak, the supply is expected to decrease, and the inventory is accumulating. The short - term trend is weak consolidation [19]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of August 15, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Rapeseed meal dropped by over 3%, methanol and rapeseed oil by nearly 2%, and many others by over 1%. Polysilicon rose by over 4%, lithium carbonate by over 2%, and some others by over 1%. Stock index futures generally rose, while most treasury bond futures declined [4]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:07 on August 15, funds flowed into contracts such as CSI 1000 2509 and CSI 500 2509, and flowed out of contracts such as Shanghai Silver 2510 and Shanghai Gold 2510 [4]. Core Commodity Analysis Copper - **Macro**: The US PPI in July rose significantly, with a month - on - month increase of 0.9% and a year - on - year increase of 3.3%, both exceeding expectations [7]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended, and China's copper concentrate imports in July increased by 18.24% year - on - year and 8.94% month - on - month. The TC/RC fees continued to rise, and the production enthusiasm of smelters was fair [7]. - **Demand**: Affected by high - temperature and rainy weather, the downstream demand was weak, and the terminal power grid performed well, while the real estate sector was a drag. The inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange did not show a significant increase, supporting the domestic copper price [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 82,700 yuan/ton, up 700 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 80,400 yuan/ton, up 650 yuan/ton [8]. - **Supply**: CATL's mining end in Jianxiawo stopped production on August 10, with no short - term resumption plan. The monthly output of this mine accounted for 9% - 10% of the domestic lithium carbonate output, and the supply was expected to shrink [8]. - **Demand**: The demand in the power sector recovered with the return of subsidies, and the trading enthusiasm of traders increased [8][9]. Crude Oil - **Inventory**: The EIA data showed that the inventory of crude oil and diesel increased, and the gasoline inventory decreased slightly [10]. - **Supply**: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, and the possibility of a cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine is rising, increasing the medium - and long - term downward pressure on prices [10]. - **Price**: Saudi Aramco raised the official selling price of Arab Light crude oil to Asia in September [10]. Asphalt - **Supply**: The weekly asphalt production rate increased by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%, and the expected production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month and increased by 17.1% year - on - year [11]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rates mostly increased, but the demand was restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% week - on - week [11][12]. - **Inventory**: The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly but remained at a low level in the same period in recent years [12]. PP - **Supply**: The production rate of PP enterprises decreased to about 83.5%, and the production ratio of standard - grade drawstring decreased to about 28.5%. New capacity is planned to be put into production in August, and the number of maintenance devices has increased slightly [13]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand was weak, and the new orders were limited. The downstream procurement was mainly for rigid needs, but the production rate of plastic weaving increased slightly [13]. Plastic - **Supply**: The plastic production rate dropped to about 87%, and new capacity was put into operation. The production rate decreased slightly recently [14][15]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate increased slightly, but the agricultural film was still in the off - season, and the new orders decreased. The demand was mainly for rigid needs, and the inventory pressure was large [14][15]. PVC - **Supply**: The PVC production rate increased to 80.33%, and new capacity was put into production in August, with more planned in the future [16]. - **Demand**: The downstream production rate decreased slightly, and the demand was not improved. The real estate sector was still in the adjustment stage [16]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory continued to increase, and the inventory pressure was large [16]. Coking Coal - **Price**: The price in the Shanxi market remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian 5 coking coal decreased by 44 yuan/ton [18]. - **Supply**: The supply data increased, the production of clean coal and raw coal increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal decreased [18]. - **Demand**: The profit of independent coking enterprises turned positive, the production of downstream coke increased, and the inventory decreased. However, the iron - making water production decreased, and the profitability of steel mills weakened [18]. Urea - **Supply**: Next week, many urea enterprises will conduct inspections, and the supply is expected to decrease [19]. - **Demand**: The production rate of compound fertilizer enterprises increased slightly, but the production rate of melamine decreased significantly, dragging down the domestic demand for urea [19]. - **Inventory**: The factory inventory increased, mainly due to the weak demand after the end of agricultural demand [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View In July 2025, under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core, the national economy maintained a steady - advancing development trend, with sustained growth in production and demand, overall stable employment and prices, the cultivation and expansion of new - quality productive forces, and new achievements in high - quality development [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry - In July, the national above - scale industrial added value increased by 5.7% year - on - year and 0.38% month - on - month. From January to July, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year. The manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, and the enterprise production and operation activity expectation index was 52.6%. From January to June, the total profit of above - scale industrial enterprises was 34365 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8% [3]. Service - In July, the national service industry production index increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to July, it increased by 5.9% year - on - year. The service industry business activity index was 50.0%, and the service industry business activity expectation index was 56.6%. Some industries were in the high - level boom range [4]. Consumption - In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 38780 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 284238 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The national online retail sales were 86835 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9.2%. The service retail sales from January to July increased by 5.2% year - on - year [5]. Investment - From January to July, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 5.3%. Infrastructure investment increased by 3.2%, manufacturing investment increased by 6.2%, and real estate development investment decreased by 12.0% [6]. Import and Export - In July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 39102 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. From January to July, the total value of goods imports and exports was 256969 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. Exports increased by 7.3%, and imports decreased by 1.6% [7]. Price - In July, the national consumer price (CPI) was flat year - on - year and increased by 0.4% month - on - month. The core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. The national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month [8]. Employment - From January to July, the average national urban surveyed unemployment rate was 5.2%. In July, it was 5.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month and the same as the same month last year [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The listing of platinum and palladium futures and options meets the hard - demand of China's platinum and palladium industry, and is significant for the futures market to serve China's green development strategy and improve the global pricing mechanism of platinum and palladium [2]. - The price curves of platinum and palladium reflect the comprehensive game of automobile technology iteration, supply shocks, and macro - sentiment. The future price difference between them depends on fuel cell penetration, mine supply recovery speed, and the expansion rhythm of the recycling system [66][71]. - Gold acts as a "ballast stone" in asset allocation, while platinum is a high - elasticity gaming chip for the automotive industry and hydrogen economy [74]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Platinum and Palladium Concept and Industry Chain Overview - **Concept and Characteristics** - Platinum is a silver - white, high - density, ductile, and chemically stable precious metal with high melting and boiling points, excellent catalytic performance, and strong corrosion resistance. It is used in electronics, automotive catalysts, jewelry, etc. [6][10] - Palladium is also a platinum - group metal, with lower density than platinum, excellent ductility, and chemical stability. It has unique strong hydrogen - absorption ability and is mainly used in automotive catalysts (especially for gasoline vehicles), electronics, etc. [11][14] - **Industry Chain Characteristics** - Supply: Platinum has an Russia - South Africa duopoly supply pattern, while palladium is dominated by South Africa. Platinum mining has high costs due to deep - mining, while palladium is a by - product of nickel mining with lower costs [20]. - Demand: Platinum has rigid jewelry demand in the Asian market, so its demand elasticity is low. Palladium has no substitutes in automotive catalysts, so its demand elasticity is high [20]. - Pain Points: The industry chain faces problems such as single - origin supply risk, low demand elasticity for platinum in jewelry, and high demand elasticity and low secondary - supply recovery rate for palladium [20]. - **Industry Chain Structure** - Upstream: It is mainly the supply of primary minerals from South Africa, Russia, etc. The key challenges include high - cost mining, ESG risks, and geopolitical issues [23]. - Mid - stream: It involves refining and processing, using complex hydrometallurgy. Core participants include mining giants' refineries, professional refiners, traders, and banks [25]. - Downstream: It is the manufacturing and distribution of products, with applications in automotive catalysts, jewelry, MLCCs, etc. Key manufacturers come from different industries [27]. - Recycling: Secondary supply mainly comes from waste automotive catalysts, electronic waste, etc., accounting for about 25% of platinum supply and 30% of palladium supply [34]. 2. Platinum and Palladium Supply - Demand Conditions - **Supply - side Factors** - Mineral Supply: It is highly concentrated in South Africa and Russia. Supply is affected by factors such as the COVID - 19 pandemic, power crises, and geopolitical issues, leading to significant fluctuations [37]. - Recycling Supply: It accounts for an increasing proportion, buffering supply - side fluctuations. However, the recycling volume is affected by precious - metal price fluctuations [38]. - **Demand - side Factors** - Automotive Catalysts: Palladium is the core material for gasoline - vehicle exhaust catalysts, accounting for 84% of global palladium demand in 2023. Platinum is mainly used in diesel - vehicle catalysts, with a 45% demand share in 2023. There is a substitution effect between them, but short - term substitution is limited [42]. - Industrial and Investment Demand: China is the largest platinum - demand country, using it for jewelry, chemical catalysts, and the hydrogen - energy industry. Europe is the largest palladium - demand country, with strong demand in the automotive industry. Emerging fields such as hydrogen fuel cells and 5G electronics are long - term demand growth points [43]. - **Inventory - side Factors** - Global platinum and palladium reserves have shown a trend of "first decline, then rise, and then stability" in the past 30 years. The sharp increase in 2024 is due to resource re - evaluation and large - scale resource upgrades in South Africa and Zimbabwe [48]. - **Import - Export Factors** - China's platinum - group metal resources are scarce, and the industry depends on imports. Import and export are affected by geopolitical, policy, and production - capacity factors. China encourages recycling technology R & D and hydrogen - energy industry investment to reduce import risks [51]. - Seasonal Patterns: Platinum imports peak from November to January and in September - October, and are low in February. Palladium imports peak from December to February and may have small peaks in July - August [54]. 3. Platinum and Palladium Spot and Futures Market Prices - **Futures Market Prices** - From 2011 to 2025, the futures prices of platinum and palladium can be divided into three stages. The price difference between them is mainly affected by automotive technology changes, supply - demand imbalances, and economic expectations [66]. - **Spot Market Prices** - From 2007 to 2025, the spot prices of platinum and palladium can also be divided into three stages. The price difference is mainly due to the "technology change" in automotive catalysts and the development of the recycling system [70]. - **Platinum - Gold Price Comparison** - In terms of price, gold is rarely surpassed by platinum. In terms of trend rhythm, gold shows a "step - by - step slow - bull" trend, while platinum has large fluctuations. In terms of divergence, the gold - platinum price ratio has reached a historical extreme, reflecting the dual discount of platinum [73][74]. 4. Platinum and Palladium Futures and Options Introduction - **Futures Contracts** - Platinum and palladium futures contracts have a trading unit of 1000 grams/hand, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, a daily price limit of 4%, and a minimum margin of 5%. They use physical delivery, and the delivery months are February, April, June, August, October, and December [78]. - **Options Contracts** - Platinum and palladium options contracts are based on their respective futures contracts. They have a trading unit of 1 hand (1000 grams) of the underlying futures contract, a minimum price change of 0.05 yuan/gram, and an American - style exercise method [100].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The macro - environment shows the US dollar oscillating at a low level, which boosts non - ferrous metals. However, the copper market's fundamental demand is weak, failing to support a market rebound. Currently, copper prices remain in a narrow - range fluctuation, awaiting market drivers. The downstream demand is insufficiently supported, with high - temperature and rainy weather affecting downstream terminal demand, and the real - estate sector dragging down the market, while the power grid performs well. Although there is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, overall demand remains tepid [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - **Macro Data**: The US July producer price index (PPI) had a 0.9% month - on - month increase, the largest in three years, and a 3.3% year - on - year increase, both exceeding market expectations [1]. - **Supply**: The Indonesian smelter's maintenance was extended to mid - August. In July, China imported 2.56 million tons of copper concentrates and ores, a year - on - year increase of 18.24% and a month - on - month increase of 8.94%. As of August 8, the TC/RC fees continued to stabilize and rebound. There is no sign of a decline in copper production, and the smelter's production enthusiasm is fair. Only one smelter has a maintenance plan in August [1]. - **Demand**: High - temperature and rainy weather has led to weak downstream terminal demand. Rising copper prices have dampened downstream purchasing sentiment. The power grid performs well, but the real - estate sector is a drag. There is no significant inventory build - up in the SHFE after the copper tariff implementation, which supports domestic copper prices to some extent [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The Shanghai copper futures opened low, rose during the day, and faced pressure. The closing price was 79,060 yuan/ton. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 2,322 to 101,223 lots, and the short positions increased by 10 to 100,094 lots [5]. - **Spot**: The spot premium in East China was 180 yuan/ton, and in South China was 25 yuan/ton. On August 14, 2025, the LME official price was $9,751/ton, with a spot premium of - $85.5/ton [5]. Supply - side As of August 8, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $37.98/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 3.79 cents/pound [7]. Fundamental Tracking - **Inventory**: SHFE copper inventory was 24,600 tons, an increase of 126 tons from the previous period. As of August 14, Shanghai Free Trade Zone copper inventory was 80,700 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 155,800 tons, a slight decrease of 50 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 266,800 short tons, an increase of 9 short tons from the previous period [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report No information provided. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 13,819.27, an increase of 107.00 from the previous period [1]. - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 334.67, up 12.82 from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Inventory**: The current steel mill imported ore inventory is 9,136.4, an increase of 123.06 from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current steel mill imported ore daily consumption is 385.08, up 86.94 from the previous period [1]. - **Arrival Volume**: The current arrival volume is 2,381.9, a decrease of 125.90 from the previous period [1]. - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The current domestic iron ore concentrate production is 40.87, an increase of 1.71 from the previous period [1]. - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The current daily average hot metal production is 240.66, up 0.34 from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Blast Furnace Operating Rate**: The current steel mill blast furnace operating rate is 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16% from the previous period [1]. - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The current capacity utilization rate is 90.22%, an increase of 0.13% from the previous period [1]. - **Steel Mill Profitability Rate**: The current steel mill profitability rate is 65.8%, a decrease of 2.6% from the previous period [1]. Port Inventory Variety Structure - **Coarse Powder**: The current coarse powder inventory is 10,711.6, an increase of 140.28 from the previous period [1]. - **Lump Ore**: The current lump ore inventory is 1,687.74, a decrease of 1.97 from the previous period [1]. - **Pellets**: The current pellet inventory is 324.69, a decrease of 12.13 from the previous period [1]. - **Concentrate**: The current concentrate inventory is 1,095.24, a decrease of 19.18 from the previous period [1]. - **Trading Ore**: The current trading ore inventory is 9,060.53, an increase of 75.63 from the previous period [1]. - **Brazilian Ore**: The current Brazilian ore inventory is 4,940.84, an increase of 68.77 from the previous period [1]. - **Australian Ore**: The current Australian ore inventory is 6,127.53, a decrease of 10.57 from the previous period [1].

Group 1: Macroeconomic and Geopolitical News - The Fed's September rate - cut expectation was frustrated again. US July PPI soared to 3.3% year - on - year, the highest since February, and rose 0.9% month - on - month, the largest since June 2022. Some Fed officials oppose a 50 - basis - point rate cut in September [1] - Russian President Putin said the US seeks an acceptable agreement and it's possible to reach a new arms agreement with the US, which could strengthen peace [1] - A coal mine in Changzhi, Shanxi plans to resume production on August 15, with a normal daily output of about 10,000 tons. The 19 - day shutdown affected about 190,000 tons of production [1] Group 2: Commodity Inventory and Production Data - As of August 14, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.8938 million tons, up 28,700 tons (1.54%) from last Thursday. Light soda ash inventory increased while heavy soda ash inventory had mixed changes [2] - As of Thursday, the national metallurgical - grade alumina's built - in total capacity was 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating total capacity was 91.79 million tons/year. The weekly operating rate rose 0.63 percentage points to 83.20% [2] Group 3: Key Commodities and Market Performance - Key commodities to focus on are urea, crude oil, polysilicon, Shanghai copper, and plastic [3] - Different commodity sectors had various performance. For example, the non - metallic building materials sector rose 2.87%, the precious metals sector rose 26.95%, and the oilseeds and oils sector rose 13.12% [6] Group 4: Asset Class Performance - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and yearly performance. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily decline of 0.46%, a monthly increase of 2.61%, and a yearly increase of 9.39% [8][9] - In fixed - income, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year Treasury bond futures all had negative performance [9] - In commodities, WTI crude oil had a daily increase of 2.00%, a monthly decline of 7.69%, and a yearly decline of 11.15%, while London spot gold had a daily flat performance but a monthly increase of 1.99% and a yearly increase of 27.86% [9] Group 5: Stock Market Risk Preference - The stock market risk preference was presented through the relationship between the Wande All - A (ex - finance, oil and petrochemical) and the risk premium, as well as the risk premiums of the Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and CSI 500 [13][14]

1. Market Performance 1.1 International Precious Metals - COMEX gold futures fell 0.76% to $3382.30 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.47% to $38.04 per ounce [2][47]. 1.2 Crude Oil - The main contract of U.S. crude oil rose 2.04% to $63.93 per barrel, and the main contract of Brent crude oil rose 1.92% to $66.89 per barrel [3][48]. 1.3 London Base Metals - LME nickel fell 1.4%, LME tin fell 0.87%, LME copper fell 0.27%, while LME zinc rose 0.48%, LME aluminum rose 0.31%, and LME lead rose 0.1% [3][50]. 1.4 Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts mostly declined. LPG rose over 1%, while rapeseed meal fell over 2%, and rapeseed oil, 20 - rubber, synthetic rubber, and caustic soda fell over 1% [4]. 1.5 Financial Markets - A - shares fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.46% to 3666.44 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.87%, and the ChiNext Index down 1.08%. The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index fell 0.37% to 25519.32 points [30][32]. 2. Important Information 2.1 Macroeconomic Information - Fed's Daly opposed a 50 - basis - point rate cut at the September meeting. The U.S. 7 - month PPI far exceeded expectations. China's central bank conducted 500 billion yuan of 6 - month reverse repurchase operations [6][7]. 2.2 Energy and Chemical Futures - Domestic soda ash inventory increased, while Singapore fuel oil inventory decreased. Russia's refined oil exports reached a high level [11][12][15]. 2.3 Metal Futures - The China Chemical and Physical Power Supply Industry Association issued an initiative for the energy storage industry, and the operating capacity of alumina increased [17]. 2.4 Black - series Futures - A coal mine in Shanxi planned to resume production, and coal supply in Shaanxi tightened. Steel production and inventory showed different trends [19][21]. 2.5 Agricultural Product Futures - Argentina's soybean and corn production had new forecasts. India's palm oil and sunflower oil imports changed, and U.S. soybean and corn exports were lower than expected [25][27]. 3. Company Performance - JD Group's second - quarter revenue increased by 22.4%. NetEase's second - quarter revenue increased by 9.4%. Foxconn's second - quarter revenue and profit reached new highs [34][35][10]. 4. Industry Dynamics 4.1 Aviation - The China Air Transport Association issued an aviation passenger self - discipline convention [36]. 4.2 Semiconductor - China's first domestic commercial electron - beam lithography machine entered application testing [37]. 4.3 Express Delivery - In July, express delivery business revenue increased by 8.9%, and business volume increased by 15.1% [38]. 4.4 Real Estate - Shanghai real - estate platforms hid historical transaction prices of second - hand houses [39]. 4.5 Banking - Financial regulators in some regions proposed "anti - involution" measures for the banking industry [41]. 5. Overseas Markets 5.1 U.S. - Trump signed an executive order to relax commercial space regulations. U.S. PPI data affected market expectations [42]. 5.2 UK - UK's second - quarter GDP grew by 0.3% [42]. 5.3 International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks were mixed, European stocks rose, and Japanese stocks fell [43][45][46]. 5.4 Bonds - Domestic and U.S. bond yields generally rose [51]. 5.5 Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB rose against the U.S. dollar, and the U.S. dollar index rose [52]. 6. Upcoming Events and Data Releases 6.1 Data Releases - Multiple economic data will be released, including Japan's GDP, China's economic indicators, and U.S. retail sales [55]. 6.2 Events - There are events such as central bank operations, news conferences, and corporate earnings releases [57].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Copper, with the possibility of a 50 - basis - point interest rate cut in September, increased copper concentrate imports, and stable TC/RC fees, the supply is sufficient. However, due to high - temperature weather and weak downstream demand, the overall demand is tepid. The dollar's low - level oscillation boosts non - ferrous metals, and the price remains in a narrow range waiting for market drivers [7]. - For Lithium Carbonate, after the accident at the US Albemarle's lithium factory and the suspension of production at CATL's mine, the supply is expected to shrink. Although the market sentiment has cooled recently, the supply reduction eases the supply - demand pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8][9]. - For Crude Oil, at the end of the seasonal travel peak, the overall oil inventory increases. OPEC+ plans to increase production in September, which may exacerbate the supply surplus in the fourth quarter. The possible cease - fire between Russia and Ukraine and the potential slowdown of the US economy increase the medium - to - long - term downward pressure on oil prices, but there are still uncertainties [10]. - For Asphalt, the supply is expected to decrease in August. The downstream demand is affected by funds and weather, and the inventory is at a low level. With the weakening of cost support, it is expected to oscillate weakly in the near future [11][12]. - For PP, the downstream demand recovery is slow, the inventory pressure is high, and the cost decreases. With new capacity coming online, it is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [13]. - For Plastic, the开工 rate is at a moderately high level, the downstream demand is in the off - season, and the inventory pressure is large. With new capacity and falling crude oil prices, it is expected to oscillate, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [14][15]. - For PVC, the supply increases, the downstream demand is weak, the inventory is high, and the real estate market is still in adjustment. It is expected to oscillate downward, and a 09 - 01 reverse spread is recommended [16]. - For Coking Coal, after the exchange's measures to limit positions and increase handling fees, the market sentiment cools. With the increase in supply expectations and the impact of downstream production restrictions, the price is expected to oscillate at a high level [18]. - For Urea, the supply fluctuates slightly, the demand is weak due to the end of agricultural demand and the impact of the parade on industrial demand, and the inventory accumulates. The market is in a supply - demand - loose pattern, and the price is expected to be weakly sorted [19]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 14, most domestic futures main contracts declined. Coking coal dropped by over 6%, coke by over 4%, and polysilicon by over 3%. Some contracts such as caustic soda rose. Among stock index futures, IH rose by 0.48%, while IF, IC, and IM declined. All bond futures contracts declined [4]. - In terms of capital flow, as of 15:15 on August 14, contracts such as CSI 300 2509 had capital inflows, while contracts like CSI 1000 2509 had capital outflows [4].