Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market is under significant pressure due to high social inventory, upcoming end of equipment maintenance, average spot trading, and high futures warehouse receipts. However, the recent major conference may affect macro - sentiment, and the cost side of PVC has strengthened. It is recommended to exit and wait and see [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis, still at a relatively high level in recent years. After the National Day, the downstream recovery of PVC was significant, but it is still at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. India postponed the BIS policy for another six months until December 24, 2025. Formosa Plastics in Taiwan, China, lowered its November quotation by $30 - 40 per ton. India increased the anti - dumping duty on imported PVC from the Chinese mainland by about $50 per ton on August 14, weakening the export expectation of Chinese PVC in the fourth quarter. However, after the recent decline in export prices, export orders have not weakened significantly. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage, and it will take time to improve [1]. Futures and Spot Market - The PVC2601 contract decreased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,670 yuan per ton, the highest was 4,725 yuan per ton, and it finally closed at 4,699 yuan per ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.47%. The position volume decreased by 14,260 lots to 1,191,906 lots [2]. - On October 21, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China dropped to 4,625 yuan per ton. The futures closing price of the V2601 contract was 4,699 yuan per ton. The current basis was - 74 yuan per ton, weakening by 16 yuan per ton, and the basis was at a relatively low - neutral level [3][4]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Shandong Xinfa, Lutai Chemical, and Inner Mongolia Junzheng entered maintenance. The PVC operating rate decreased by 5.94 percentage points to 76.69% on a month - on - month basis. New production capacities have been put into operation, including Wanhua Chemical with an annual capacity of 500,000 tons in August, Tianjin Bohua with an annual capacity of 400,000 tons expected to be in stable production by the end of September, Qingdao Gulf with an annual capacity of 200,000 tons put into operation in early September and approaching full - load production, and Gansu Yaowang and Jiaxing Jiahua with annual capacities of 300,000 tons each running at low loads after trial production [5]. - Demand side: The real estate is still in the adjustment stage. From January to September 2025, the national real estate development investment was 677.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%. The sales area of commercial housing was 658.35 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 5.5%. The sales volume of commercial housing was 630.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.9%. The new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.9%. The construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.4858 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4%. The completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 15.3%. As of the week of October 19, after the National Day, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 54.79% on a month - on - month basis, but it was at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [6]. - Inventory: As of the week of October 16, the PVC social inventory decreased by 0.24% on a month - on - month basis to 1.0338 million tons, 33.52% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory decreased slightly but was still relatively high [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report predicts that plastics will experience a weak and volatile trend in the near future. Factors such as the signing of a cease - fire agreement between Israel and Hamas, OPEC+ planning to increase production in November, the escalation of Sino - US trade frictions, and insufficient downstream purchasing willingness contribute to this prediction. Although the peak season of agricultural film may bring some support, the overall situation remains under pressure[1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [行情分析] - On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. Agricultural film entered the peak season, but the peak season was less than expected, and the post - National Day stocking demand weakened. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastics operating rate decreased slightly. With concerns about economic growth and no actual anti - involution policies in the plastics industry, plastics are expected to oscillate weakly in the near future[1]. [期现行情] - **Futures**: The plastics 2601 contract decreased in positions and oscillated. The lowest price was 6,830 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,915 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,883 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.38%. The position volume decreased by 135 lots to 561,965 lots[2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,470 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,930 - 9,930 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,260 - 8,090 yuan/ton[3]. [基本面跟踪] - **Supply**: On October 21, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 86%, at a neutral level[1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of October 17, the downstream operating rate of PE increased by 0.56 percentage points to 44.92%. After the National Day, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories increased but were still lower than in previous years. Packaging film orders decreased slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE was at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - **Inventory**: During the National Day holiday, the petrochemical inventory increased by 270,000 tons, and on Tuesday, it decreased by 10,000 tons to 790,000 tons, 35,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The inventory accumulation during the National Day this year was similar to previous years, and the current petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level in the same period in recent years[1][4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fell below $61 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $770 per ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $780 per ton[4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点至35.8%，较去年同期高了8.0个百分点，处于近 年同期中性偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，10月份国内沥青预计排产268.2万吨，环比减少0.4万吨，减 幅为0.1%，同比增加35.0万吨，增幅为15.0%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数稳定，其中道路沥 青开工环比持平于29.0%，仍处于近年同期最低水平，受到资金和部分地区降雨制约。上周，国庆假 期归来，全国出货量环比增加14.48%至25.33万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比继 续上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位。无棣鑫岳等炼厂有检修计划，沥青产量将有所减少，但仍 处高位。北方多地项目赶工，只是个别地区降温明显，南方降雨增加，另外，资金端制约，市场谨 慎，影响沥青需求。近日中美即将进行新一轮的经贸磋商，原油价格波动或加大，加上山东地区沥 青基差走强至高位，建议沥青期价离场观望。 【期现行情】 发布日期：2025年10月21日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 沥青日报：震荡运行 【基本面跟踪】 基本面上看，供应端，山东及华东地区个别主营炼厂间歇生产，沥青开工率环比回升1.3个百分点 至3 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand situation of crude oil is weak, and it is mainly treated as a weak - side oscillation in the medium and long term. However, the recent decline in crude oil prices has increased, and the upcoming new round of economic and trade consultations between China and the US may lead to greater price fluctuations. It is recommended to leave the market temporarily and pay attention to the progress of China - US trade negotiations [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On October 5, OPEC+ eight countries decided to further increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in November, which will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in the fourth quarter. The next meeting will be held on November 2 [1] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the inventory build - up of US crude oil exceeded expectations, and the de - stocking of refined oil also exceeded expectations. Overall oil product inventories have increased. US refineries have entered the autumn maintenance season, and the refinery operating rate has decreased by 6.7 percentage points [1] - After the discount of Russian crude oil widened, India continued to import Russian crude oil. Trump said that Modi promised that India would not buy oil from Russia, but it would take a process [1] - The European Commission passed a new draft of sanctions against Russia, including sanctions on shadow tankers and setting the crude oil price cap at $47.6 per barrel, but there is no secondary sanction for Russian buyers. The EU spokesman said that the European Commission will propose a plan to increase the import tariff on Russian oil in due course [1] - Due to the increased attacks by Ukraine on Russian oil infrastructure, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Novak said that Russia will extend the export ban on diesel and gasoline until the end of the year. Currently, Russia's crude oil exports remain at a high level [1] - EIA's latest monthly report predicts that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and the IEA monthly report predicts that the global oil surplus will intensify [1] - The first - stage cease - fire agreement in Gaza has been reached between Palestine and Israel, and Trump will meet with Putin in Budapest, reducing geopolitical risks [1] - The EU sanctions plan has been introduced, the consumption peak season has ended, the US non - farm payrolls data is weak, and the uncertainty of China - US trade has worried the market about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, the crude oil exports in the Kurdistan region of Iraq have restarted, and exports in the Middle East have increased [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2512 contract, fell 0.32% to 437.7 yuan per ton, with a minimum price of 431.8 yuan per ton, a maximum price of 440.2 yuan per ton, and an increase in open interest of 559 to 44,704 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - EIA expects that the global oil inventory will increase by about 2.6 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025, and has raised the US crude oil production in 2025 by 90,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. It has also raised the average price of Brent crude oil in 2025 from $67.80 per barrel to $68.64 per barrel, but expects the Brent crude oil price to fall to $59 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2025 and maintain the average price in 2026 at $51.43 per barrel [3] - OPEC has raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 1.38 million barrels per day [3] - IEA has lowered the global oil demand growth rate in 2025 by 30,000 barrels per day to 710,000 barrels per day and maintained the growth rate in 2026 at 699,000 barrels per day. It has also raised the global oil supply growth rate in 2025 by 300,000 barrels per day to 3 million barrels per day and raised the global oil demand growth rate in 2026 by 300,000 barrels per day to 2.4 million barrels per day, intensifying the oil supply surplus [3] Inventory and Production Data - On the early morning of October 17, US EIA data showed that for the week ending October 10, US crude oil inventories increased by 3.524 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 288,000 barrels and 3.45% lower than the five - year average. Gasoline inventories decreased by 267,000 barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 75,000 barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 4.529 million barrels, exceeding the expected decrease of 294,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 703,000 barrels [4] - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in August was reduced by 32,000 barrels per day to 27.916 million barrels per day, and its production in September 2025 increased by 524,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.44 million barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases in Saudi Arabia and the UAE [4] - US crude oil production increased by 7,000 barrels per day to 13.636 million barrels per day in the week of October 10, setting a new historical high [4] Demand Data - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products decreased to 20.669 million barrels per day, a 0.85% increase compared with the same period last year, and the margin of being higher than the same period last year increased slightly [5] - Gasoline weekly demand decreased by 5.20% week - on - week to 8.455 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 8.713 million barrels per day, a 3.19% decrease compared with the same period last year [5] - Diesel weekly demand decreased by 2.60% week - on - week to 4.233 million barrels per day, with a four - week average demand of 3.984 million barrels per day, a 0.19% increase compared with the same period last year. The decline in both gasoline and diesel demand led to a 11.48% week - on - week decrease in the single - week supply of US crude oil products [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The performance of domestic futures contracts on October 21, 2025, was mixed. Some contracts like shipping container freight on the Europe route and precious metals showed significant gains, while others such as coking coal and coke declined. Different commodities have different market outlooks based on their supply - demand fundamentals, macro - economic factors, and geopolitical situations [6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market Overview - **Price Changes**: As of the close on October 21, shipping container freight on the Europe route rose over 5%, Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and rubber rose nearly 2%. Coking coal fell over 3% and coke fell over 2%. Among stock index futures, CSI 500 index futures (IC) rose 2.08%, etc. Among treasury bond futures, 30 - year treasury bond futures (TL) rose 0.16% [6][7]. - **Fund Flows**: As of 15:17 on October 21, funds flowed into CSI 500 2512 (2.453 billion), CSI 1000 2512 (1.412 billion), and SSE 50 2512 (1.179 billion). Funds flowed out of coking coal 2601 (735 million), Shanghai silver 2512 (288 million), and styrene 2511 (244 million) [7]. 3.2. Market Analysis of Specific Commodities - **Copper**: Copper opened low and closed high with a strong intraday trend. Supply is tight due to inventory reduction and smelter maintenance. High prices are not well - accepted by downstream, but demand has rigid support. With the end of the peak season, the upward space is limited [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It opened low and closed low with a weak intraday trend. It shows a pattern of strong supply and demand. The production profit is improving, and the inventory is decreasing. In the short - term, the price is supported, but demand may decline next month [10][11]. - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ plans to increase production in November, and the demand peak is over. The supply - demand situation is weak. In the medium - to - long - term, it will fluctuate weakly. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks, price volatility may increase [12]. - **Asphalt**: Supply is at a relatively high level, and demand is affected by factors such as funds and weather. With upcoming Sino - US trade talks and a strong basis in Shandong, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines [14]. - **PP**: Downstream开工率 is low, and new production capacity has been put into operation. The supply - demand pressure is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [15][17]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a neutral level, and new production capacity has been added. The peak season demand is not as expected, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly [18]. - **PVC**: Supply is still at a relatively high level, and export expectations are weak. Social inventory is high, and the pressure is large. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines [19][20]. - **Coking Coal**: It opened low and closed low with a weak trend. Supply is tight, and demand is affected by the profitability of coke enterprises. The peak season provides some support [21]. - **Urea**: The futures price opened low and closed high. The cost is rising, and demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak and stable [23].

联系方式：010-85356618 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1580 1580 0 河南 1540 1550 -10 山东 1540 1550 -10 山西 1460 1460 0 江苏 1550 1560 -10 安徽 1560 1560 0 黑龙江 1620 1640 -20 内蒙古 1610 1630 -20 河北东光 1560 1560 0 山东华鲁 1560 1560 0 江苏灵谷 1610 1610 0 安徽昊源 1550 1550 0 山东05基差 -142 -125 -17 山东01基差 -179 -158 -21 河北05基差 -102 -95 -7 河北01基差 -139 -128 -11 1-5价差 73 75 -2 5-9价差 -37 -33 -4 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 6057 6238 -181 中东FOB 373.5 373.5 0 美湾FOB 376.5 376.5 0 埃及FOB 432.5 432.5 0 波罗的海FOB 370 370 0 巴西CFR 422.5 422.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 执业资格证 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 内需低位支撑 发布日期：2025 年 10 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素盘面低开高走，整体偏强。现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。 山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。基 本面来看，尿素上游工厂装置检修与复产并行，日产并无明显变化，但同比去年 偏低，原料端动力煤价格持续上行，尿素成本端走强，前期尿素价格下跌至水煤 浆成本线后出现反弹。需求端，市场成交氛围低迷，秋季肥收尾为主，复合肥工 厂降低开工负荷，终端走货以成品库存消化为主，秋季肥逐渐收尾，东北地区开 工推迟至十一月附近，复合肥开工负荷难有大量提升。整体来说，盘面止跌回稳， 天气目前转好，秋季肥收尾过程中，短期农需有低位支撑，但内需难以消化高位 库存，行情弱稳为主。 数据来源：Wind、冠通研究咨询部 现货方面：现货市场维持弱稳运行，成交氛围冷清。山东、河南及河北尿 素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1490-1540 元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 2 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1597 元 ...

Hot News - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee started in Beijing on the morning of October 20, 2025. General Secretary Xi Jinping delivered a work report on behalf of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee and explained the "Proposal of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China on Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (Discussion Draft)" to the plenary session [2] - China and the United States are about to return to the negotiation table. US President Trump said that the US would list rare earths, fentanyl, and soybeans as the three major issues to raise with China. Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun responded that China's stance on handling China - US economic and trade issues is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars do not serve the interests of either side, and both sides should resolve relevant issues through consultations on the basis of equality, respect, and reciprocity [2] - The National Bureau of Statistics released data showing that China's GDP grew by 5.2% year - on - year in the first three quarters. Specifically, it grew by 5.4% in the first quarter, 5.2% in the second quarter, and 4.8% in the third quarter. In September, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. In the first three quarters, the national fixed - asset investment decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and increased by 3% after excluding real estate development investment; the per capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors [2] - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the "Detailed Rules for Urea Futures Business of the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange" by adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product for small - and medium - granular urea. At the same time, the premium and discount and applicable regions of all alternative delivery products will be announced externally [2] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced that the monthly average price futures of linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene will be listed for trading starting at 21:00 on October 28, 2025, and will be included in the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors [3] Key Focus - The key commodities to focus on are urea, Shanghai copper, live pigs, plastics, and asphalt [4] Holiday Overseas Performance Plate Performance - The night - session price changes of major commodity futures contracts and the position - increasing ratios are presented. Different commodity sectors have different price change rates, such as non - metallic building materials with a 2.96% increase, precious metals with a 30.84% increase, oilseeds and fats with a 10.19% increase, etc. [4] Plate Positions - The changes in the positions of commodity futures plates in the past five days are shown, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, Wind chemical industry, etc. [5] Performance of Major Asset Classes | Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | 0.63 | - 0.49 | 15.28 | | | SSE 50 | 0.24 | - 0.47 | 10.81 | | | CSI 300 | 0.53 | - 2.21 | 15.33 | | | CSI 500 | 0.76 | - 4.62 | 23.47 | | | S&P 500 | 1.07 | 0.70 | 14.51 | | | Hang Seng Index | 2.42 | - 3.71 | 28.91 | | | German DAX | 1.80 | 1.58 | 21.85 | | | Nikkei 225 | 3.37 | 9.46 | 23.29 | | | FTSE 100 | 0.52 | 0.57 | 15.06 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.14 | 0.25 | - 0.75 | | | 5 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.11 | 0.02 | - 0.83 | | | 2 - Year Treasury Bond Futures | - 0.04 | - 0.04 | - 0.62 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 1.07 | - 1.37 | - 0.08 | | | WTI Crude Oil | - 0.09 | - 8.00 | - 20.06 | | | London Spot Gold | 0.00 | 10.20 | 62.01 | | | LME Copper | 1.02 | 4.05 | 21.99 | | | Wind Commodity Index | - 3.81 | 3.65 | 34.82 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.07 | 0.82 | - 9.09 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 0.00 | 27.64 | 19.77 | [6] Main Commodity Trends - Multiple charts show the trends of major commodities, including the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), CRB spot index, WTI crude oil, London spot gold, London spot silver, LME 3 - month copper, etc., as well as the risk premiums of relevant stock indexes [7]

Report Information - Release Date: October 21, 2025 [3] Market Trends International Futures - International precious metal futures generally closed higher, with COMEX gold futures up 3.82% at $4374.30 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.59% at $51.40 per ounce. Factors include US government shutdown, Fed rate - cut expectations, EU energy policy shift, central bank gold - buying, and Sino - US trade friction [4]. - US crude oil futures' main contract fell 0.38% to $56.93 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures' main contract dropped 0.57% to $60.94 per barrel. Rising global production, slowing economic growth, and reduced geopolitical risks pressured oil prices [4]. - Most London base metals rose. LME zinc, lead, copper, tin, and nickel increased, while LME aluminum declined. The Fed's signal of a possible slowdown in rate hikes and a weaker US dollar drove the price increase [4]. Domestic Futures - Domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Shanghai gold rose over 2%, and Shanghai silver rose over 1%. Some commodities like soybeans and pulp had small increases, while coking coal and soda ash dropped over 2%, and others like glass and coke fell over 1% [6]. Important Information Macroeconomic Information - The People's Bank of China kept the one - year and five - year loan prime rates (LPR) at 3% and 3.5% respectively [8]. - China's GDP in the first three quarters increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with an economic increment of 3967.9 billion yuan, 136.8 billion yuan more than the previous year [8]. - As of October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan, reaching about 2.02 trillion yuan, a 24% increase from the end of 2024 [8]. - As of October 20, 2025, the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (European route) was 1140.38 points, up 10.5% from the previous period [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - The EU plans to gradually stop importing Russian oil and gas by January 1, 2028 [11]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange plans to revise the urea futures business rules, adding large - granular urea as an alternative delivery product [13]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will expand the scope of tradable products for qualified overseas investors, including linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures, starting from the night session on October 28, 2025 [13]. - As of October 20, 2025, domestic soda ash manufacturers' total inventory was 1.7107 million tons, up 0.60% from the previous week [13]. Metal Futures - The global lithium demand is expected to grow at an average annual rate of about 20% to 4 million tons by 2030, driven by battery demand [15]. - Some polysilicon production bases in Southwest China will gradually reduce raw material input and stop production by the end of October - early November, with an affected capacity of about 320,000 tons per year [15]. - Global primary aluminum production in September 2025 was 6.08 million tons. China's estimated production was 3.644 million tons [15]. - China's tin concentrate imports in September 2025 were 8714 tons, down 15.13% month - on - month but up 10.68% year - on - year [16]. Black - Series Futures - From October 13 - 19, 2025, global iron ore shipments were 33.335 million tons, up 1.26 million tons from the previous week [19]. - In September 2025, China's crude steel production was 73.49 million tons, down 4.6% year - on - year; pig iron production was 66.05 million tons, down 2.4% year - on - year; and steel production was 124.21 million tons, up 5.1% year - on - year [19]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a meeting on cement industry stability, emphasizing capacity replacement and standardization [19]. - From now until October 23, 2025, Tangshan's section steel mills will implement production control, with an expected开工率 of 33% and a daily output reduction of about 50,000 tons [20]. - HeSteel Group set the final price of silicomanganese in October at 5820 yuan per ton [21]. - Coal mines in Shuozhou's Shanyin County stopped production on October 20, 2025, with a total capacity of 34 million tons, and are expected to resume on October 24 [22]. Agricultural Futures - In the first three quarters, China's pig slaughter was 529.92 million heads, up 1.8% year - on - year, and pork production was 43.68 million tons, up 3.0% year - on - year [25]. - As of the week of October 17, domestic major soybean oil mills' soybean crushing volume was 2.17 million tons, and it is expected to rise to about 2.3 million tons this week [25]. - As of October 17, 2025, palm oil commercial inventory in key regions increased by 5.13% week - on - week, while soybean oil commercial inventory decreased by 3.25% week - on - week [25]. - Malaysia's palm oil exports from October 1 - 20 increased by 3.4% compared to the same period last month [26]. - China did not import soybeans from the US in September 2025 and is increasing purchases from South American countries [26]. - As of October 15, the national pig ex - factory price was 11.90 yuan per kilogram, down 6.08% from October 8 [26]. - As of last Thursday, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 24%, and the sowing area of the first - crop corn in the central - southern region reached 51% of the planned area [26]. - As of October 20, the national imported soybean port inventory was 6.96254 million tons, up 314,570 tons from the previous week [28]. - US soybean export inspections in the week ending October 16, 2025, were 1.474354 million tons [28]. - As of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing rate was 21.7% [29]. Financial Markets Financial - On Monday, A - shares oscillated with reduced trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.63%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.98%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.98%. Market turnover decreased to 1.75 trillion yuan [31]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.42%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 3%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 2.45%. Southbound funds had a net sell - off of HK$2.67 billion [31]. - There are rumors that the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges may select a CSI A500ETF as an option underlying asset [31]. Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the cement industry's stability plan, including no new capacity, standardizing existing capacity, and eliminating backward capacity [32]. - In the first three quarters, the land transfer fees of 300 cities' residential land increased by 12% year - on - year, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. In the third quarter, the land market cooled [32]. - Shanghai's eighth batch of centralized land auctions had a total transaction amount of 19.877 billion yuan, with a record - high floor price in the Xuhui Riverside area [32]. - The 2025 Beijing International Wind Energy Conference proposed to increase China's annual new wind power installation capacity during the 15th Five - Year Plan period and set long - term installation goals [32]. - As of the end of September, China's electric vehicle charging infrastructure reached 18.063 million units, a 54.5% year - on - year increase [33]. - In September, China's industrial raw coal production decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, while crude oil and natural gas production increased. Crude steel and pig iron production reached new lows since December 2023 [33]. Overseas - The US and Australia signed an agreement on rare earths and critical minerals, planning to invest over $3 billion in the next 6 months and build a gallium processing plant in Western Australia [35]. - Trump claimed that Modi promised to stop buying Russian oil, and threatened to impose "huge" tariffs if India does not fulfill the promise [35]. - The White House's economic advisor said the government shutdown may end this week, and stronger measures may be taken if not [35]. - Argentina's central bank signed a $20 - billion swap agreement with the US Treasury [36]. - The Bank of Korea's governor said the bank has not considered a currency swap with the US Treasury [37]. - The EU supports phasing out Russian natural gas imports by January 2028 [37]. - A hawkish member of the Bank of Japan warned of price - rising risks and said the central bank may raise the benchmark interest rate. The BOJ may slightly raise the 2025 fiscal year's economic growth forecast [37]. - Vietnam's government set a GDP growth target of at least 10% in 2026 and expects an 8% growth this year [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks rose across the board, driven by Apple's record - high price, hopes of ending the government shutdown, and strong iPhone 17 sales [40]. - European stocks also closed higher, benefiting from better - than - expected Chinese economic data, expectations of Sino - US trade talks, improved corporate earnings, and reduced risk aversion [40]. - Japan's stock market rose strongly after the increased possibility of Takamichi Sanae becoming the prime minister. South Korea's stock market also reached a new high [40]. - Vietnam's stock market tumbled due to reports of corporate bond issuance irregularities in the banking and real - estate sectors [41]. Commodities - On October 9, 2025, China's futures market capital exceeded 2 trillion yuan [42]. - Linear low - density polyethylene, polyvinyl chloride, and polypropylene monthly average price futures will be listed on October 28, 2025, and are open to qualified overseas investors [44]. Bonds - A - share rebound and progress in Sino - US talks led to rising yields in the inter - bank bond market and falling bond futures prices in China. The central bank conducted 189 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and had a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan [46]. - US Treasury yields fell across the board, driven by increased risk aversion and expectations of Fed rate cuts [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1231 on Monday, up 34 basis points. The central parity rate was 7.0973, down 24 basis points [48]. - The CFETS RMB exchange - rate index and other RMB exchange - rate indices declined in the week of October 17 [48]. - The Reserve Bank of India is taking measures to promote the use of the rupee in trade settlements [48]. - The US dollar index rose 0.07% at the New York close. Most non - US currencies fell, while the Australian dollar and offshore RMB rose [48]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 91 billion yuan of reverse repurchases by the People's Bank of China will mature [50]. - At 12:20, Bank of Japan Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino will give a speech [50]. - At 15:00, European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane and President Christine Lagarde will give speeches [50]. - At 21:00, the Federal Reserve will hold a payment innovation meeting, with Governor Christopher Waller giving the opening speech [50]. - At 21:30, European Central Bank Governing Council member Robert Holzmann will give a speech [50]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China is being held from October 20 - 23 [50]. - The APEC Finance Ministers' Meeting is being held until October 22 [50]. - Japan will hold a prime - minister nomination election [50]. - US President Trump will announce major tariff measures against Colombia [50]. - UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rachel Reeves will hold a regional investment summit [50]. - Jushuitan will be officially listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange [50]. - China Telecom, Netflix, Coca - Cola, and General Motors will release their financial reports [50]. - At 03:30 the next day, Fed Governor Christopher Waller will give the closing speech at the Fed's payment innovation meeting [50]. - At 06:00 the next day, German Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel will give a speech [50].

冠通期货研究报告 --沪铜周报 研究咨询部王静 执业资格证号：F0235424/Z0000771 发布时间：2025年10月20日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 行情分析 2 ➢ 宏观方面：目前美国政府依然处于停摆阶段，经济数据迟迟未公布，目前预计本周将陆续有数据出炉，但10月份降息概率依然维持高位， 下周将举行会议。中美关税贸易冲突目前依然还在僵持，自特朗普10月10日威胁对华输美商品加征100％关税后，双方反制措施密集出 台，国内经济数据核心CPI连续回升，工业生产者价格降幅收窄。 ➢ 供给方面：今年以来，铜矿端多发扰动，印尼Grasberg铜矿为全球第二大铜矿，9月出现泥石流事故，5月Kamoa-Kakula铜矿地震活动中 断采矿作业，7月El Teniente矿区因地震活动暂停地下作业，频繁的铜矿事故造成了偏紧的铜供应预期。本周铜精矿港口库存数量去化， 目前铜精矿库存同比去年大幅偏低。冶炼厂检修仍在继续，产出水平低，且LME铜价格走高，冶炼厂计划向LME发运铜现货，可能造成国 内进一步收缩流通量。 ➢ 需求方面：目前铜处于银十旺季阶段，但受宏观刺 ...