Group 1: Hot News - The Ministry of Housing and Urban - Rural Development will stabilize the real estate market this year, implement city - specific policies, and support reasonable financing needs of real estate enterprises and residents' rigid and improved housing needs [2] - Trump said the US won't take Greenland by force [2] - BHP's iron ore production in the fourth quarter of 2025 continued the seasonal growth trend, with the annual output of WAIO reaching 292 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the output decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - In January, many leading polysilicon companies will stop or reduce production as planned. The monthly average output in the first quarter is expected to drop to about 80,000 tons. The supply - demand relationship will gradually reach a weak balance, and the market will remain in a wait - and - see situation [3] Group 2: Plate Performance - Key focus: asphalt, coking coal, coke, glass, and soda ash [4] - Night - trading performance: Non - metallic building materials rose 1.98%, precious metals rose 38.08%, oilseeds rose 7.87%, non - ferrous metals rose 24.46%, coal - coking - steel - ore rose 9.34%, energy rose 2.13%, chemicals rose 9.52%, grains rose 1.11%, agricultural and sideline products rose 2.81%, and soft commodities rose 2.69% [4][5] Group 3: Plate Position - The document shows the position changes of commodity futures plates in the past five days, including Wind agricultural and sideline products, Wind grains, etc. [6] Group 4: Performance of Major Asset Classes - Equity: Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.08%, S&P 500 rose 1.16%, etc. [7] - Fixed - income: 10 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.03%, 5 - year treasury bond futures rose 0.01%, etc. [7] - Commodity: CRB commodity index rose 0.00%, WTI crude oil rose 0.43%, etc. [7] - Others: US dollar index rose 0.23%, CBOE volatility remained unchanged [7]

投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报：基本面逐渐转好，尿素易涨难跌 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 【行情分析】 今日尿素高开高走，日内上涨。天气转好以来，市场低端价格成交有所增 加，整体报价小幅上涨。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围 多在 1680-1720 元/吨。基本面来看，目前多个数据口径统计日产均 20 万吨附 近。无装置有停车检修计划，前期气头停产企业陆续开始复产，供给端总体稳 定，无过大变量，最近天气转晴后，农业经销商拿货增强，苏皖地区拿货及下 一轮的返青追肥均属于短期需求增长点，本期复合肥工厂开工及成品库存同步 增加，目前库存下沉过程中，预计年前开工负荷继续增长有限，大多工厂以销 定产为主。本周库存继续去化，主要系东北地区需求增加，带动周边工厂同步 去库，去化趋势大概率将继续维持，全国天气预计半月后都开始不同程度的回 暖，农业需求将开始逐渐启动，春节前同样有补库预期，尿素整体易涨难跌。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1773 元/吨开盘,高开高走，日内上涨。最终 收 ...

联系方式：010-85356618 本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1750 1750 0 河南 1740 1750 -10 山东 1750 1750 0 山西 1610 1630 -20 江苏 1750 1760 -10 安徽 1750 1760 -10 黑龙江 1780 1780 0 内蒙古 1790 1790 0 河北东光 1730 1730 0 山东华鲁 1730 1730 0 江苏灵谷 1800 1800 0 安徽昊源 1720 1720 0 山东05基差 -22 -21 -1 山东01基差 4 7 -3 河北05基差 -22 -31 9 河北01基差 4 -3 7 1-5价差 23 85 -62 5-9价差 26 28 -2 仓单数量（张） 仓单数量合计 13340 13355 -15 中东FOB 411.5 411.5 0 美湾FOB 406.5 406.5 0 埃及FOB 452.5 452.5 0 波罗的海FOB 395 395 0 巴西CFR 427.5 427.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 尿素日度数据图表 研究咨询部 2026/1/21 指 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The current production pressure of hot-rolled coils is not significant. The anti-involution policy still has expectations, providing strong support at the lower end. The weekly-on-week apparent demand has rebounded, and the year-on-year demand remains strong. The demand during the off-season shows strong resilience. The warming up of winter storage sentiment may drive a wave of demand. The total inventory is relatively high, posing some pressure, but the recent continuous destocking may relieve the pressure if it persists. The daily line of hot-rolled coil futures is currently near the support of the 30-day and 60-day moving averages. In the short term, it is necessary to pay attention to whether it can stabilize at this level and break through the pressure near the 10-day moving average. It is recommended to adopt a cautiously bullish approach, but note that the oscillation range has not been completely broken yet [6]. Summary by Directory Market Review - **Futures Price**: On Wednesday, the trading volume of the main hot-rolled coil futures contract decreased compared to the previous trading day. The price fluctuated and stabilized within the day, with a daily low of 3271 yuan and a high of 3290 yuan. It closed at 3286 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 0.06%. The short-term moving average retraced to the support near the 30-day moving average and then rebounded. Attention should be paid to the pressure near the 10-day moving average [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3270 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Basis**: The basis between futures and spot was -16 yuan, with futures slightly at a premium to the spot [3]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 2.85 million tons to 3.0836 billion tons compared to the previous week. The year-on-year output decreased by 1.183 million tons. The production has been rising for four consecutive weeks, mainly due to improved profitability of steel mills, increased production enthusiasm, the transfer of molten iron from building materials to plates, and the resumption of production after the end of annual maintenance [4]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 5.82 million tons to 3.1416 billion tons compared to the previous week. The apparent demand rebounded significantly this week, with a year-on-year increase of 0.51 million tons. The demand data is at a high level in recent years, indicating strong demand resilience [4]. - **Inventory**: As of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 5.8 million tons to 3.6233 billion tons compared to the previous week. The social inventory decreased by 5.01 million tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 0.79 million tons. The total inventory continued to decline, indicating strong demand for hot-rolled coils. The total inventory is at a high level in the past five years, but if the destocking continues, the pressure on prices will decrease [4]. - **Policy**: New regulations on the export license management of steel products have been introduced, which will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, an increase in supply, and price pressure. In the long term, it will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness enhancement. The Central Economic Work Conference in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involution competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [5]. Market Driving Factor Analysis - **Bullish Factors**: Decrease in supply output, expected start of winter storage demand, export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and strong iron ore prices [6]. - **Bearish Factors**: Unexpected resumption of production by steel mills in January, seasonal weakening of demand, insufficient manufacturing orders, and inventory accumulation suppressing prices [6].

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The caustic soda market is in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. With low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure, the short - term supply - demand is weak, and prices are expected to remain weak, but there is a risk of an oversold rebound. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises, as well as the production reduction of caustic soda producers [3] Group 3: Summary of Each Section Fundamental Analysis - From January 9th to 15th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 86.7%, a week - on - week increase of 0.1% [1] - From January 10th to 16th, the alumina start - up rate increased by 0.09% week - on - week to 85.83%. From January 9th to 15th, the viscose staple fiber start - up rate remained stable at 88.43% week - on - week, and the printing and dyeing start - up rate decreased by 1.33% week - on - week to 58.76% [1] - As of January 15th, the factory warehouse inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a production capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 512,100 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 3.41% and a year - on - year increase of 99.64% [1] - The caustic soda purchase price of Weiqiao has been continuously reduced. Since January 18th, it has been reduced by 15 yuan, with an ex - factory price of 630 yuan/ton [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030 [2] - Multiple departments such as the Ministry of Finance have implemented an interest - subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro - enterprises' loans, established a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan quota for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extended the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market, and expectations [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - Caustic soda is currently in a high - inventory and high - supply pattern. The short - term decline is due to low - cost warehouse receipts and pre - holiday inventory reduction pressure. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, while spring (March - May) and autumn (September - October) are the traditional concentrated maintenance seasons. The futures price has hit new lows, and the short - term supply - demand is weak, but an oversold rebound should be guarded against. The main downstream alumina has rebounded recently, and the electrolytic aluminum industry is operating stably. Attention should be paid to the start - up situation of electrolytic aluminum and alumina enterprises, as well as the production reduction of caustic soda producers [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On January 21, 2026, the plastic maintenance devices changed little, with an operating rate of about 91%, at a moderately high level. The downstream PE operating rate dropped to 40.93%, and the agricultural film orders continued to decline. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. With the easing of the Iran situation, the crude oil price declined. New plastic production capacity was put into operation recently, and it is expected that the plastic will fluctuate weakly in the near future, and the L - PP spread will decline [1]. - The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased to 504,362 lots [2]. - The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, and the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%. The petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The Iran situation eased, and the crude oil price declined. New production capacity was put into operation, and the plastic is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the L - PP spread expected to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated, closing at 6666 yuan/ton with a 0.41% increase, and the open interest increased by 9150 lots to 504,362 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market mostly declined, with LLDPE at 6520 - 6870 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8450 - 9180 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6840 - 8140 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21, the plastic operating rate remained at about 91%, at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of January 16, the downstream PE operating rate dropped by 0.28 percentage points to 40.93%, the agricultural film orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream PE operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: The petrochemical inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons, higher than the same period last year, and was at a neutral level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $64/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $710/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price dropped by $10/ton to $690/ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic futures market showed mixed performance on January 21, 2026, with some commodities rising and others falling. Different commodities have different supply - demand situations and price trends affected by various factors such as policies, geopolitical events, and seasonal factors [5][6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Metals - **Copper**: Prices showed a pattern of opening low and closing high. In 2026, smelter profits have narrowed, and the supply of refined copper is expected to decline in January. The downstream demand is weak, but policy subsidies and the New Year peak season may improve the situation. The increase in copper prices before the Spring Festival is limited without significant positive stimuli [8]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: Prices opened low and went high, showing an overall upward trend. The exchange adjusted the trading rules. Although the fundamentals are weakening, the demand for energy - storage batteries is still strong. With the expected resumption of production and strong export demand, the strong trend continues [10]. - **Stainless Steel and Platinum**: Rose more than 2% on January 21, but no detailed analysis provided in the report [5]. - **Gold and Silver**: Gold futures had significant capital inflows, while silver futures had capital outflows. Gold prices rose more than 3% on January 21 [5][6]. - **Tin**: Rose more than 5% on January 21, but no detailed analysis provided in the report [5]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan, and the US crude inventory increased. Although the demand concern has eased, the global crude oil supply is still in a surplus situation. Geopolitical risks such as the situations in Iran and Venezuela need to be monitored, and the price is expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - **Asphalt**: The supply is at a relatively low level, and the demand is affected by factors such as weather and funds. The situation in Venezuela may affect the raw material supply of domestic refineries. The price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage [14]. Chemicals - **PP**: The downstream开工率 is at a relatively low level, and the supply has increased with new capacity. The cost has decreased due to the easing of the Iranian situation. The supply - demand pattern improvement is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The L - PP spread is expected to narrow [15]. - **Plastic**: The开工率 is at a relatively high level, but the downstream demand is weak, especially for agricultural films. With new capacity coming on - stream, it is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [16][18]. - **PVC**: The supply is relatively stable, but the downstream demand is weak. The export situation is affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates. The inventory is high, and the price is expected to fluctuate strongly in the 03 - 05 contracts [19]. - **Urea**: The price opened high and went high. The supply is stable, and the demand from agriculture and compound fertilizer factories is increasing. The inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to be easy to rise and difficult to fall [22]. Others - **Coking Coal**: The supply has increased, and the inventory has shifted from upstream to downstream. The downstream demand is mainly supported by winter storage. The price is expected to fluctuate [20][21]. - **Futures Index Contracts**: The performance of stock index futures and bond futures varied. The IF and IC and IM contracts rose, while the IH contract fell slightly. Among bond futures, the TS contract fell slightly, and the TF, T, and TL contracts rose [6].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The overall market shows a pattern of strong oils and weak meals. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak. Oils have downward support and may receive additional upward drivers later [1][2] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - As of the week ending January 15, 2026, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 1,336,684 tons, compared with 989,489 tons in the same period last year. The total U.S. soybean export inspection volume for the 2025/26 season so far is 19,335,069 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 40.2%, reaching 45.1% of the annual export target [1] - The first - quarter arrival estimate in China remains at 17.1 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 3.2 million tons), slightly lower than the three - year average. The second - quarter arrival estimate slightly increases to 36.9 million tons (a year - on - year increase of 2.6 million tons) [1] - The near - month supply has a certain gap, but the probability of an extreme shortage situation like last year is low. The spot rhythm around the Spring Festival is unclear. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts are weak due to the bearish effect of the USDA report. If the South American harvest is good, the main contract may decline further [1] Group 3: Oil Market - The market expects Malaysia's palm oil production in January to decline by 15% - 17%, and exports to increase significantly due to seasonal demand before the Spring Festival and Ramadan in February. If these factors persist until March, the ending inventory may drop significantly [2] - From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil yield decreased by 16.49% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.08% month - on - month, and the production decreased by 16.06% month - on - month [2] - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton cargo of Canadian rapeseed after Canada's Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which boosts Canadian export prospects and may weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2] - Although Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan failed, there are significant buyers below. The crushing cost of rapeseed under the 15% tariff is still high, so the vegetable oil futures have strong support below. The U.S. biofuel policy in early March may bring additional upward drivers to the oil sector [2]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak. The data released last week showed an uptick, indicating that the winter storage demand is starting. With about one month until the Spring Festival, there are expectations for the winter storage market. The output has slightly declined and is at a relatively low level compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy is expected to shrink production capacity, providing support at the bottom. The inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downwards as iron ore and coking coal prices have weakened. The real - estate demand continues to decline, limiting the upside potential. After the recent decline, the market has digested the weak real - estate data, and the price is near the previous integer - level support. It is recommended to take a cautiously bullish approach at this level [4]. Group 3: Market行情 Review - Futures price: The rebar main contract on Wednesday had an increase of 1,023 lots in open interest, and the trading volume decreased compared to the previous trading day, with 633,661 lots. It stopped falling and stabilized, breaking below the 5 - day moving average, but was supported by the 10 - day, 30 - day, and 60 - day moving averages. It stabilized near the 3,100 integer level, with a low of 3,104 yuan/ton, a high of 3,122 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,117 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.35% [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream area's spot price for HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3,270 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan from the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 153 yuan/ton to the spot price. The large basis provided some support, and winter storage on the futures market was somewhat cost - effective [1]. Group 4: Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 190.3 tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. It was 2.99 tons lower year - on - year in the Gregorian calendar. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, down 0.56 percentage points week - on - week but up 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, up 2.17 percentage points week - on - week but down 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 228.01 tons, down 1.49 tons week - on - week. This week's output decline and relatively low production compared to recent years provided some support for prices [2]. - Demand: The apparent consumption rebounded, and winter storage may have started. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 15.38 tons week - on - week to 190.34 tons, and was 5.19 tons higher year - on - year. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption rebounded significantly, indicating the possible start of winter storage demand [2]. - Inventory: The inventory decreased slightly, with a decrease in mill inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of the week of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 0.04 tons week - on - week to 438.07 tons. The social inventory was 295.41 tons, increasing by 5.23 tons week - on - week but still at a relatively low level in recent years. The mill inventory was 142.66 tons, down 5.27 tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, while the decrease in mill inventory indicated some winter storage by traders [3]. - Macroeconomic: The central bank signaled moderate easing, and the Ministry of Finance emphasized that expenditure would only increase. However, due to the drag from real - estate demand, the incremental demand at the macro - level was relatively limited, but the easing cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Group 5: Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The inventory was at a three - year low, the supply side was reducing production due to anti - involution, production capacity was strictly controlled, policies supported demand, post - holiday demand was expected to improve marginally, and the macro - economic outlook was optimistic [4]. - Bearish factors: There was an unexpected increase in inventory after the Spring Festival, the inventory reduction speed slowed down, blast furnace restart accelerated, winter storage demand was cautious, real - estate demand continued to decline, exports were restricted, and economic recovery was weak [4].

1，期货市场：玻璃主力日内延续震荡走低。120 分钟布林带三轨向下，短期 延续震荡偏弱信号。盘中压力关注日线的 10 均线附近，支撑关注布林带下轨线 附近。成交量较昨日减 10.6 万手，持仓量较昨日增 31714 手；日内最高 1061， 最低 1035，收盘 1039，（较昨结算价）跌 25 元/吨，跌幅 2.35%。 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：延续震荡偏弱 数略有增加，部分订单可维持 20 天以上；北部及中部区域订单下滑。 利润方面，天然气浮法玻璃周均利润-164.40 元/吨，环比+22.00 元/吨；煤 制气浮法玻璃周均利润-69.01 元/吨，环比+4.82 元/吨；石油焦浮法玻璃周均利 润 3.93 元/吨，环比+9.71 元/吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 2，现货市场：华北，市场成交一般，部分货源重心下移；华东，市场主流 持稳，整体出货平平；华中，湖北、湖南市场交投平稳，刚需拿货，逢低采买； 华南，广东、福建需求相对较好，库存压力较小，但出货较前期有所放缓。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1020，基差-19 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应 ...