【冠通研究】 跌至历史低点，盘面小幅反弹 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开高走小幅翻红，现货报价跌势显著，连续下跌之 下，工厂出货压力增加，关注今日翻红后周末成交情况。基本面来看，日产高 位带来的压力尚无改善预期，供应端减弱拐点未至，日产维持在 20 万吨左右， 上游工厂依然以临时检修减产为主，本周目前有三家企业有检修计划。需求 端，东北玉米追肥即将展开，华北地区农需仍在等待启动；复合肥厂内成品库 存去化受阻，开工负荷连续下调，企业以销定产，对尿素支撑边际继续减弱， 其他工业需求也多以羸弱为主，供需宽松格局明显。库存端出口集港预计在六 月下旬之后进行，出口企业主动累库，且新单成交不畅，供应不减压力下，企 业库存连连增加。整体来说，今日尿素小幅反弹主要系低位盘整，基本面尚无 改善，依然处于宽松格局，盘面向上动能不足，具体高度需关注出口情况及农 需拿货。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1655 元/吨高开高走，最终收于 1661 元/吨， 收成一根阳线，涨跌 0.42%，持仓量 284793 手（-22286 手）。前二十名主力持 仓席位来看，多头- ...

【策略分析】 沪铜日内承压运行。美国 5 月 PPI 年率录得 2.6%，市场预期为 2.6%；美国 5 月 PPI 月率录得 0.1%，市场预期为 0.2%。结合周三公布的美国 CPI 数据显示，关税政策给美国 带来的影响暂未造成大幅通胀，市场增加了美联储降息的预期。但中东地缘政治局势紧张， 美元指数昨日下跌后今日回弹。供给端，精铜矿港口库存本期累库，上游铜矿虽整体偏紧， 但下游承接力度乏力。截至 2025 年 6 月 9 日，现货粗炼费为-42.9 美元/千吨，现货精炼 费为-4.28 美分/磅，铜精矿目前供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏损加深，冶炼厂面临减量减产 风险。中国 5 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量锐减至 42.7 万吨，环比下降 2.5%，进口量减少而 国内库存去化停滞，市场需求端环比减弱。进入需求淡季阶段，表观消费量减少，5 月预 计继续处于下降周期内。下游铜箔、铜管等开工率均环比出现下降，下游终端虽有韧性, 但对铜向上传导力度不足，需求依然是制约铜价上涨的重要原因。整体来说，最新的美国 经济数据显示美国通胀不及预期，后续降息概率加大后美元或转弱，将支撑铜价格，但需 求疲软下，上方压力也制约铜价，预计铜盘面 ...

隔夜夜盘市场走势 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/13 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.88%报 3406.40 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货涨 0.41%报 36.41 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价走强，美油主力合约收涨 1.04%，报 68.86 美元/桶；布伦特原油主 力合约涨 0.69%，报 70.25 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数上涨，LME 期铜涨 0.44%报 9690.50 美元/吨，LME 期 铅涨 0.23%报 1992.00 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约跌多涨少。燃料油涨超 1%，菜油涨近 1%；跌幅方面，纯 碱跌超 2%，丁二烯橡胶、玻璃、烧碱、焦炭、焦煤、纸浆跌超 1%。 5. 美国农产品期货涨跌不一，CBOT 玉米期货涨 0.34%，报 4.385 美元/蒲式耳。 CBOT 小麦期货跌 1.4%，报 5.2675 美元/蒲式耳。CBOT 大豆期货跌 0.71%，报 10.43 美元/蒲式耳。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。中东地缘风险急剧升温。 关注将于周日在阿曼举行的美伊第六轮核协议谈判。美国石油钻井数量下降幅度 较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原油供给压力缓解。需求端 ...

【冠通研究】 多方博弈，铜价震荡运行 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 12 日 【策略分析】 沪铜日内承压运行。尽管美国总统特朗普的贸易战加剧了价格压力，但美国 5 月未 季调 CPI 年率升至 2.4%，高于 4 月份 2.3%的增幅，但不及分析师预测的 2.5%。市场预期 美联储未来一年将累计降息 77 个基点，此前预期未来一年降息 67 个基点，到 12 月降息 42 个基点。交易员加大对美联储 9 月开始降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次。供给 端，精铜矿港口库存大幅去化，铜原料端供应趋紧，截至 2025 年 6 月 9 日，现货粗炼费 为-42.9 美元/千吨，现货精炼费为-4.28 美分/磅，铜精矿目前供应紧缺，叠加冶炼厂亏 损加深，冶炼厂面临减量减产风险。中国 5 月未锻轧铜及铜材进口量锐减至 42.7 万吨， 环比下降 2.5%，进口量减少而国内库存去化停滞，市场需求端环比减弱。进入需求淡季 阶段，表观消费量减少，5 月预计继续处于下降周期内。下游铜箔、铜管等开工率均环比 出现下降，下游终端虽有韧性,但对铜向上传导力度不足，需求依然是制约铜价上涨的重 要原因。整体来说，美国经济数据助推美联储降 ...

早盘速递 2025/6/12 热点资讯 1.欧洲央行行长拉加德在演讲中表示，强制性贸易政策不是解决当今贸易紧张局势的可持续办法。保护主义在缓解失衡问题 时，并非解决根源问题，而是在侵蚀全球繁荣的基础。随着各国如今通过全球供应链深度融合——但地缘政治上不再像过去那 样结盟——这种风险比以往任何时候都更大。 2. 据纽约邮报报道，特朗普表示，他对伊朗会同意在与美国修订后的核协议中终止所有铀浓缩活动失去了希望，但仍决心不 让伊朗获得核武器。当被问及是否认为自己能让伊朗同意关闭其核项目时，特朗普称："我不知道。我之前是这么认为的，但 现在我越来越没信心了。 -0.60 -0.40 -0.20 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.57% 贵金属, 30.02% 油脂油料, 11.65% 软商品, 2.74% 有色, 20.08% 煤焦钢矿, 13.48% 能源, 2.43% 化工, 12.91% 谷物, 1.48% 农副产品, 2.64% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (300,000) (200,000) (100,0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea prices continued to decline with a bearish market sentiment, and the supply - demand contradiction was obvious. The supply remained high while the demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. Although the price was at a low level and might rebound, the rebound height was expected to be limited and would depend on export and agricultural demand [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Urea prices opened low and closed lower, approaching historical lows. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The daily output remained high, restricting the upside of the price. The demand was weak, with low agricultural fertilizer - preparation enthusiasm, decreasing compound fertilizer factory operation rates, and a decline in melamine operation rates. The inventory increased due to slow downstream purchases and postponed port inspections. The price was expected to rebound, but the height would depend on exports and agricultural demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1670 yuan/ton and closed at 1646 yuan/ton, down 1.67%. The trading volume was 307097 lots (+20038 lots). Among the top twenty main positions, long positions increased by 11936 lots and short positions by 15036 lots. Some futures companies had changes in net long and net short positions [2]. Spot - Upstream factory quotes were mainly stable with a downward trend, and new orders were not smoothly traded. The supply - demand pattern was loose. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Tracking Basis - The spot market mainstream quotes were stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 84 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. Supply Data - On June 12, 2025, the national urea daily output was 20.30 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. Downstream Data - From June 6 to June 12, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 33.81%, down 3.32 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of Chinese melamine was 63.77%, down 0.54 percentage points from the previous week [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight market trends of various asset classes including international and domestic futures, important macro - economic news, and the performance of financial markets. It reflects the complex and dynamic nature of the global economic and financial environment, with factors such as geopolitical risks, trade policies, and central bank policies influencing market movements. 3. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - International oil prices soared, with the US crude oil main contract rising 5.11% to $68.30 per barrel and Brent crude oil main contract up 4.58% to $69.93 per barrel [2] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures up 0.98% at $3376.00 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 0.77% at $36.36 per ounce [3] - London base metals mostly declined, with LME nickel down 1.13% at $15145.00 per ton and LME copper down 1.12% at $9647.00 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed performance, with low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) up over 1%, while coking coal, glass, and soda ash down over 1% [5] - US agricultural product futures mostly fell, with CBOT corn down 0.51%, CBOT wheat down 0.09%, and CBOT soybeans down 0.76% [5] Important Information Macro - economic Information - European Central Bank President Lagarde stated that mandatory trade policies are not a sustainable solution to current trade tensions [8] - Trump lost hope that Iran would agree to terminate all uranium enrichment activities in a revised nuclear deal but remains determined to prevent Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons [8] - The first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London, emphasizing the mutually beneficial nature of China - US economic and trade relations [8] - In May, China's futures trading market volume and turnover decreased year - on - year by 4.51% and 1.55% respectively [9] - Trump claimed a major victory for the US as the federal appellate court ruled that the US can use tariffs for self - protection [9] - Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates by 1% due to good CPI data [9] - US May unadjusted CPI annual rate rose to 2.4%, and market expectations for Fed rate cuts increased [10] Energy and Chemical Futures - A methanol storage tank fire in Iran's Bushehr Port caused at least three deaths [12] - As of June 9, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.725 million barrels from the previous week [13] - As of June 11, China's methanol port inventory increased by 71,000 tons to 652,200 tons [13] - Japan's commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 206,359 kiloliters in the week ending June 7 [14] - A large alumina plant in Shandong adjusted its 32% ion - membrane liquid caustic soda purchase price down by 10 yuan per ton [14] - In the week ending June 6, US commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.644 million barrels, and strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 237,000 barrels [14] Metal Futures - A primary lead smelter in Southwest China plans a one - week maintenance starting late June, with an expected daily lead ingot output reduction of about 300 tons [17] - From June 1 - 8, the retail sales of China's passenger vehicle market reached 343,000 units, a 19% year - on - year increase and a 12% decrease from the previous month [17] Black - series Futures - Australia's CML lowered its July offer price for manganese ore to China by $0.15 per ton - degree [19] - Eramet Comilog cut its manganese ore offer price to China by $0.15 per ton - degree [19] - Qinghai Shuohua Silicon Iron Plant plans to reduce production by 90 tons per day [20] - On June 11, the blast furnace operating rate of 242 steel mills decreased by 0.11 percentage points, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate decreased by 0.05 percentage points [20] - China's national building materials social inventory increased by 1.77 tons, factory inventory decreased by 12.97 tons, and production decreased by 8.16 tons [20] Agricultural Product Futures - As of June 6, CBOT soybean deliverable inventory decreased by 0.02% from the previous week [23] - As of June 4, Argentine farmers sold 1.7579 million tons of 2024/2025 soybeans [23] - TA Securities analyst expects palm oil prices to decline in the second half of 2025 due to strong production and weakening demand [23] - Due to increased import costs and low inventory, the decline of domestic soybean meal prices is limited [23] - Germany's Oilworld expects Indonesia to increase palm oil exports to 25 million tons in 2025 [24] - On June 11, the actual transaction volume of imported soybeans at the auction was 15,899 tons, with a transaction rate of 13.5% [24] - The estimated sugar beet production in the EU 27 and the UK in 2025/2026 remains at 113 million tons [25] - From June 1 - 10, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 17.24% [27] - Market expectations for US soybean and corn export net sales in different market years are provided [27] Financial Markets Finance - The Shanghai Stock Exchange is promoting the inclusion of STAR Market ETFs in the Fund Connect platform and optimizing relevant trading mechanisms [29] - A - share major indices rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.52%, Shenzhen Component Index up 0.83%, and ChiNext Index up 1.21% [29] - Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index rose 0.84%, and related technology and enterprise indices also increased [29] - Insurance funds are accelerating their entry into the stock market, with 7 insurance companies making 15 stake - increasing moves by the end of May [31] - The stock repurchase and stake - increasing re - loan tool is showing its function of stabilizing the capital market, with a total loan amount of 130.625 billion yuan [31] Industry - More than ten mainstream passenger vehicle enterprises promised to unify supplier payment terms within 60 days [32] - In May, China's automobile production and sales increased year - on - year, with new energy vehicle sales up 36.9% [32] - The National Certification and Accreditation Administration is promoting CCC certification pilot work in the automobile field [32] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the National Development and Reform Commission are promoting the cultivation of bio - manufacturing pilot platforms [33] - Nine departments in Shanghai are promoting green finance development [35] - Zhejiang is supporting the overseas expansion of the game industry [35] - European banks have spent over 1.1 billion euros on senior staff layoffs since 2018 [35] Overseas - US May tariff revenue reached a record high, narrowing the deficit, but the sustainability of tariff revenue is in question [36] - Trump said the federal appellate court's ruling on tariffs was a major victory for the US and there is a possibility of reconciling with Musk [36] - US Treasury Secretary Bezant hopes to serve as Treasury Secretary until 2029, defends the government's spending and tax - cut bill, and is willing to extend the tariff suspension period [38] - Gold has become the second - largest reserve asset of global central banks, with a 20% share in 2024 [38] International Stock Markets - US major stock indices slightly declined, with concerns over Trump's tariff policies and regulatory tightening in the tech sector [39] - European major stock indices showed mixed performance, affected by multiple factors [39] Commodities - In May, China's futures trading market volume and turnover decreased year - on - year, but increased in the January - May period [40] - International oil prices rose significantly, and geopolitical risks and China - US relations are expected to cause oil prices to fluctuate strongly [42] - International precious metal futures closed mixed, influenced by US tariff policies and Fed policy expectations [42] - London base metals mostly declined due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [42] Bonds - The domestic bond market performed strongly, with rumors of the central bank's six - month repurchase inquiry [43] - US Treasury yields declined as May CPI data eased inflation concerns [43] - "New Bond King" Jeffrey Gundlach believes US debt is unsustainable and advises increasing non - dollar asset allocation [45] - European bond yields generally rose due to trade policy uncertainties [45] Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose 11 basis points at the 16:30 close, and the RMB central parity rate was adjusted up 25 basis points [46] - US May CPI data strengthened market expectations of Fed rate cuts, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and mixed performance of non - US currencies [46]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The current soybean meal market presents a mixed situation. In the long - term, the reduction of US soybean planting area and potential tariff policies support the bullish sentiment for far - month soybean meal. It is recommended to buy far - month soybean meal on dips [3]. - Urea prices are currently at a historical low. After wheat harvesting, with the support of agricultural demand and exports, prices may bounce back, but overall remains weak without significant changes in export policies [5]. - Copper prices are fluctuating within a range. They are highly susceptible to global trade trends and Fed inflation and interest - rate cuts. Attention should be paid to recent CPI data and China - US trade negotiations [10]. - The rebound of lithium carbonate is mainly due to improved macro - level sentiment rather than fundamentals. It is advisable to short on rebounds [12]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. OPEC+ production increases and supply - demand factors need to be considered [13]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [15]. - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level, with inventory pressure and improved commodity sentiment [16]. - Plastic is expected to oscillate at a low level, facing inventory pressure and slow downstream recovery [18]. - PVC is expected to oscillate at a low level, with high supply and low demand [19]. - Soybean oil futures are expected to be weak in the short - term, pressured by inventory and weak demand [21]. - For coking coal, the supply pressure has eased slightly, but the fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. - Rebar may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks. Track steel mill production cuts and inventory data [24]. - Hot - rolled coil is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term, with a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand [25]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot Commodities Soybean Meal - The 09 contract of soybean meal opened higher and rose today, with a closing increase of 0.93%. In the US, soybean planting is nearly finished and weather is favorable. In China, as of June 6, soybean inventory increased by 4.7% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 28.36% week - on - week [3]. Urea - Urea prices opened low and continued to decline today. Supply is stable, with daily production around 200,000 tons. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. It may rebound after wheat harvesting, but overall remains weak [4][5]. Futures Market Summary - As of June 11, domestic futures contracts showed mixed performance. Industrial silicon rose over 2%, while palm oil and container shipping to Europe fell over 2% [7]. Core Views on Individual Commodities Copper - Copper prices fluctuated within a range. Supply is tight with reduced port inventory and potential smelter cuts. Demand is in a downward cycle, and prices are affected by trade and Fed policies [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate opened low and rose, with a nearly 2% increase. Spot prices increased slightly. The rebound is due to macro - sentiment, not fundamentals. Be cautious when chasing up [11][12]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices rebounded due to multiple factors. OPEC+ will increase production in July. Supply and demand factors are complex, and prices are expected to oscillate [13]. Asphalt - Asphalt supply increased, with a 3.6 - percentage - point increase in the start - up rate last week. Demand is mixed, and prices are expected to oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [14][15]. PP - PP downstream start - up rate decreased. Supply increased with new device production and restarted units. Inventory pressure is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [16]. Plastic - Plastic start - up rate increased, but downstream start - up rate decreased. Inventory is high, and it is expected to oscillate at a low level [17][18]. PVC - PVC supply increased, while demand is weak. Inventory is still high, and prices are expected to oscillate at a low level [19]. Soybean Oil - The 09 contract of soybean oil opened low and declined, with a closing decrease of 0.93%. US soybean growth data is mixed, and domestic inventory is increasing. Futures are expected to be weak in the short - term [20][21]. Coking Coal - Coking coal prices rebounded slightly. Supply pressure eased, but demand is weak. The fundamental relaxation inflection point has not arrived, and it is recommended to be cautious when chasing up [22]. Rebar - Rebar prices rose 0.67% today. Supply is still loose, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is decreasing slowly. It may continue to rebound in the short - term, but beware of callbacks [23][24]. Hot - rolled Coil - Hot - rolled coil prices rose 0.78% today. Supply pressure increased, demand is in the off - season, and cost support weakened. It is expected to be weak and oscillate in the short - term [25].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the PP industry is "Oscillating operation", and the strategy is to "Sell short on rallies after rebounds" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - PP is expected to oscillate at a low level. Although the sentiment in the commodity market has improved due to the agreement between China and the US to implement the results of the economic and trade talks, there are still many factors restricting the price of PP, such as high inventory pressure, slow downstream recovery, and limited new orders [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 50.01% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 44.7%, and orders slightly decreased [1][4] - The US tariff increase is unfavorable for PP downstream product exports, and the import of upstream propane for polypropylene is restricted [1] - Newly added maintenance devices such as Xuzhou Haitian have reduced the PP enterprise开工率 to about 85%, at a neutral level, and the production ratio of standard wire drawing has dropped to about 27% [1][4] - After the Dragon Boat Festival, the petrochemical inventory has increased significantly and is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [1][4] - The wildfires in Canada have affected crude oil production, the intensity of mutual attacks between Russia and Ukraine has increased, and the agreement between China and the US to implement the results of the economic and trade talks, along with better - than - expected US non - farm data, have led to a rebound in crude oil prices [1] - The two sets of devices in Exxon Huizhou have been put into production and are releasing production capacity. Recently, some maintenance devices have restarted. With the arrival of the rainy season in the South, the downstream recovery is slow, plastic weaving开工率 has slightly decreased, and new orders are limited [1] Futures Market - The PP2509 contract decreased its position and oscillated, with a minimum price of 6935 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6983 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6960 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.27%. The position decreased by 10063 lots to 501412 lots [2] Spot Market - The spot prices of PP in most regions are stable. The price of wire drawing is reported at 6930 - 7230 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, new maintenance devices such as Xuzhou Haitian have reduced the PP enterprise开工率 to about 85%, at a neutral level [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of June 6, the PP downstream开工率 decreased by 0.28 percentage points to 50.01% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period over the years. The plastic weaving开工率 decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 44.7%, and orders slightly decreased [4] - On Wednesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 2.5 tons to 83 tons week - on - week, 2 tons higher than the same period last year. During the Dragon Boat Festival, the early petrochemical inventory increased by 16 tons to 89 tons, with significant inventory accumulation during the festival and at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4] - For the raw material, crude oil, the Brent crude oil 08 contract fluctuated around 67 US dollars/barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China decreased by 25 US dollars to 750 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]