1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The urea price is fluctuating at a low level. The supply is stable, but the high daily production restricts the upward space of the price. The demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak without significant changes in export policies [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy Analysis - The urea price opened low and moved lower, continuing to hit new lows. The spot price was mainly stable with a downward trend due to the weak futures market. The supply was stable, but the high daily production limited the upward space of the price. The demand was weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. After the wheat harvest, the price may rebound with the support of agricultural and export demand, but overall it remains weak [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2509 opened at 1700 yuan/ton and closed at 1667 yuan/ton, down 1.48%. The trading volume was 287,041 lots, an increase of 18,208 lots. Among the top 20 main positions, the long positions increased by 7,005 lots, and the short positions increased by 18,351 lots [2]. Spot - Affected by the weak futures market, the urea spot market had difficulty in receiving orders, and the price was mainly stable with a downward trend. The ex-factory price of small granular urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1690 - 1730 yuan/ton, with the lowest price in Henan [1][5]. 3.3 Warehouse Receipt Data - On June 11, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 6,042, a decrease of 9 compared to the previous trading day, with a decrease of 9 in Puyang Huangfu [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation was stable, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on Shandong, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the September contract was 83 yuan/ton, an increase of 1 yuan/ton [8]. Supply Data - On June 11, 2025, the national daily urea production was 203,000 tons, a decrease of 800 tons compared to the previous day [10]. Inventory Data - As of June 11, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.1771 million tons, an increase of 141,700 tons compared to the previous week, a month - on - month increase of 13.69% [13]. Pre - sale Order Days - As of June 11, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 5.71 days, an increase of 0.24 days compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 4.39% [13].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收跌，COMEX 黄金期货跌 0.30%报 3344.80 美元/盎司， COMEX 白银期货跌 0.38%报 36.66 美元/盎司。 2. 国际油价全线下跌，美油主力合约跌 0.84%，报 64.74 美元/桶。布油主力合 约跌 0.67%，报 66.59 美元/桶。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘涨跌参半，LME 期铝涨 0.61%报 2494.00 美元/吨，LME 期 锌涨 0.34%报 2658.50 美元/吨，LME 期铜跌 0.69%报 9725.00 美元/吨。 4. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。焦煤、焦炭涨超 1%，铁矿石、低硫燃料油 （LU）、豆一涨近 1%；跌幅方面，棕榈油、PX、PTA、短纤跌近 1%。 5. 美国农产品期货多数上涨，CBOT 玉米期货涨 1.27%，报 4.39 美元/蒲式耳。 CBOT 小麦期货跌 1.25%，报 5.3525 美元/蒲式耳。CBOT 大豆期货涨 0.17%，报 10.5775 美元/蒲 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate due to a combination of supply and demand factors, with supply pressure easing but demand data not performing well [3]. - Urea prices are expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future, and the strength of the rebound depends on export dynamics [4]. - Copper prices are currently oscillating strongly, mainly supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [9]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out, followed by a strategy of shorting on rebounds [10]. - Asphalt prices are expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. - PP, plastic, PVC, and soybean oil prices are all expected to oscillate at a low level, affected by factors such as supply - demand imbalance and inventory pressure [14][15][17][18]. - Soybean meal prices are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. - Coking coal prices are generally bearish due to loose supply - demand and weakening demand [21]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC+ will increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, but actual production growth is less than expected. Canadian wildfires have led to a reduction in production, and US oil production is expected to decline [3]. - Demand: Market risk appetite has rebounded, but refined oil demand and inventory data are not good, and the negative impact of the global trade war on the economy has not been fully reversed [3]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate [3]. Urea - Supply: There are temporary inspections in some factories, and daily production has decreased, but the daily production is still around 200,000 tons [4]. - Demand: Market sentiment is weak, agricultural demand is not strong, and compound fertilizer factories are mainly focused on inventory reduction [4]. - Price trend: The price dropped by nearly 2% today, and the market sentiment is expected to continue to weaken, with a possible rebound in the future [4]. Copper - Supply: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to losses. Other regions' copper inventories have decreased due to steel tariffs [9]. - Demand: Apparent consumption has decreased, downstream开工率has declined, and demand is the main factor restricting price increases [9]. - Price trend: Currently oscillating strongly, supported by low inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes under tariff expectations [9]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: Production is expected to increase in June, and the fundamental situation is still one of oversupply [10]. - Demand: Downstream procurement is cautious, and the support for prices is limited [10]. - Price trend: Oscillating around 60,000 yuan, with a rebound trend at a low valuation, and short positions can be适量closed out [10]. Asphalt - Supply: The starting rate has rebounded, and the scheduled production in June is expected to increase [12]. - Demand: The starting rate of downstream industries has fluctuated, and the demand for road asphalt is restricted by funds [12]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a high level in the near term, and it is recommended to go long on the 09 - 12 spread [12]. PP - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new devices have been put into production, increasing supply [13][14]. - Demand: Downstream recovery is slow, new orders are limited, and inventory pressure is high [13][14]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [14]. Plastic - Supply: Some overhauled devices have restarted, and new production capacity has been put into operation [15]. - Demand: Downstream开工率is at a low level, and new orders are slow to follow up, with high inventory pressure [15]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [15]. PVC - Supply: The starting rate has increased, and social inventory is still high [16][17]. - Demand: Downstream开工率has declined, and export is affected by policies. Demand improvement is limited [16][17]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate at a low level [17]. Soybean Oil - Supply: The inventory of imported soybeans has increased, and the soybean crushing volume is at a historical high, with high inventory [18]. - Demand: Terminal demand is weak, and downstream stocking willingness is low [18]. - Price trend: Expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [18]. Soybean Meal - Supply: The supply in the domestic market is sufficient, and the inventory is gradually accumulating [19][20]. - Demand: The weather in the United States is favorable for soybean growth, and the supply outlook is good [19]. - Price trend: Expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend [20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The customs clearance volume remains high, and the total inventory is at a high level [21]. - Demand: Steel mills' demand for coking coal has decreased, and terminal demand has weakened [21]. - Price trend: Generally bearish [21].

【冠通研究】 支撑乏力，关注麦收后农需 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 10 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素价格日内高开低走，午后价格下跌明显，收跌近 2%。昨日市场下 调价格后收单有好转，价格小幅调涨，但今日期货下跌，预计市场情绪继续转 弱为主。基本面来看，供应端山西天泽及安徽临泉临检，日产下降，但目前多 个统计口径尿素日产均位于 20 万吨左右，限制盘面上方空间。需求端，盘面价 格连连下降，市场情绪随之冷淡。小麦收麦尚未结束，农需不温不火，农业经 销商零星拿货，未集中进行补货。复合肥工厂灵活排产，夏季肥收尾阶段以库 存去化为主，开工负荷偏低。库存被动累库主动累库并行，需求疲弱叠加出口 检验等待下，库存同比偏高。小麦收割结束后，预计农需将增加，但对尿素支 撑力度有限，无法削弱供需过剩的核心逻辑，目前价格偏低，行情或有反弹， 反弹强度继续关注出口动态。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1700 元/吨高开低走，最终收于 1678 元/吨， 收成一根阴线，涨跌-1.24%，持仓量 268833 手（+2976 手）。前二十名主力持仓 席位来看，多头-6305 手，空头+955 手。其中，东证期货净 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The low inventory currently is the main reason supporting the rise in copper prices. The tariff policy is expected to drive the global copper trade, and copper prices are mainly fluctuating strongly. Attention should be paid to inventory changes under the influence of tariff expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Shanghai copper fluctuated strongly during the day. Citibank postponed the Fed's interest rate cut expectation by two months and predicted a 75 - basis - point cut this year. In May, the national CPI decreased by 0.1% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous month [1] - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has been significantly reduced, and the supply of copper raw materials has tightened. As of June 9, 2025, the spot smelting fee was - 42.9 dollars per thousand tons, and the spot refining fee was - 4.28 cents per pound. The supply of copper concentrate is currently in short supply, and smelters face the risk of production reduction due to deepening losses. The inventory reduction in other regions due to steel tariffs has deepened the supply shortage [1] - On the demand side, as of April 2025, the apparent consumption of electrolytic copper was 1.2827 million tons, a decrease of 89,700 tons or 6.54% from the previous month. Entering the off - season, the apparent consumption is expected to continue to decline in May. Although major indicators such as PMI have improved, the operating rates of downstream copper foil, copper tubes, etc. have decreased month - on - month, and demand remains an important factor restricting the rise in copper prices [1] Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed up. The closing price was 78,880. The long positions of the top 20 were 130,482 lots, a decrease of 2,683 lots; the short positions were 132,136 lots, a decrease of 2,463 lots [4] - Spot: The spot premium in East China was 65 yuan per ton, and in South China was 45 yuan per ton. On June 9, 2025, the LME official price was 9,740 dollars per ton, and the spot premium was 109 dollars per ton [4] Supply Side - As of the latest data on June 9, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 42.9 dollars per dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.28 cents per pound [6] Fundamental Tracking - In terms of inventory, the SHFE copper inventory was 33,700 tons, a decrease of 496 tons from the previous period. As of June 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 51,500 tons, an increase of 1,600 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory was 120,400 tons, a slight decrease of 2,000 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory was 189,700 short tons, an increase of 1,843 short tons from the previous period [9]

Report Summary 1. Hot News - Citi postponed the expected time of the Fed's next interest rate cut from July to September, and now expects the Fed to cut rates by 75 basis points this year, with 25 basis - point cuts in September, October, and December, while the market expects only about 46 basis - point cuts by the end of the year [1] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore were 486 million tons, a decrease of 5.2%, with an average import price of 707.2 yuan per ton, a drop of 16.4%; crude oil imports were 230 million tons, an increase of 0.3%, at 3864.3 yuan per ton, a drop of 10.6%; coal imports were 189 million tons, a decrease of 7.9%, at 559 yuan per ton, a drop of 22.5%; natural gas imports were 49.053 million tons, a decrease of 9.5%, at 3274 yuan per ton, a drop of 6.8%; soybean imports were 37.108 million tons, a decrease of 0.7%, at 3233.9 yuan per ton, a drop of 13.9%; refined oil imports were 15.98 million tons, a decrease of 26.8%, at 4323.2 yuan per ton, a drop of 0.1% [1] - In May 2025, China's consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. The average CPI from January to May decreased by 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month - on - month [1] - On June 9 local time, He Lifeng, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Vice - Premier of the State Council, started the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism with the US side in London, UK [1] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said on social media that Trump incited trouble and illegally federalized the National Guard, and he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [1] 2. Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on include styrene, corn, soda ash, urea, and coking coal [1] 3. Night - session Performance - The performance of commodity futures main contracts in the night session is presented in a chart, but specific data for each commodity is not detailed in text [1] 4. Sector Performance - Non - metallic building materials rose 2.62%, precious metals rose 30.32%, oilseeds and oils rose 11.58%, soft commodities rose 2.63%, non - ferrous metals rose 19.87%, coal, coke, steel, and minerals rose 13.43%, energy rose 2.41%, chemicals rose 12.98%, grains rose 1.46%, and agricultural and sideline products rose 2.70% [2] 5. Sector Positions - The chart shows the changes in commodity futures sector positions in the past five days, but specific data for each sector is not detailed in text [4] 6. Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.43% daily, 1.56% monthly, and 1.43% year - to - date; the Hang Seng Index rose 1.63% daily, 3.83% monthly, and 20.55% year - to - date [5] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures rose 0.09% daily, 0.25% monthly, and 0.07% year - to - date [5] - In the commodity category, the CRB Commodity Index rose 0.21% daily, 3.82% monthly, and 1.61% year - to - date; London spot gold rose 0.47% daily, 1.11% monthly, and 26.71% year - to - date [5] - In other categories, the US Dollar Index fell 0.19% daily, 0.42% monthly, and 8.72% year - to - date; the CBOE Volatility Index remained unchanged daily, fell 9.69% monthly, and fell 3.34% year - to - date [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core View of the Report - Not provided in the given content Group 3: Summary of Key Data Production and Operation Indicators - The current week's soybean meal production is 1.5683 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.10%, and the previous value was 1.5857 million tons [1] - The current week's oil refinery operating rate is 63.10%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04%, and the previous value was 63.76% [1] Inventory Indicators - The current week's oil refinery soybean inventory is 5.4118 million tons, with a week - on - week change of 0.00%, the same as the previous value [1] - The current week's oil refinery soybean meal inventory is 0.264 million tons, with a week - on - week change of 0.00%, the same as the previous value [1] - The current week's feed enterprise soybean meal inventory is 6.31 days, a week - on - week increase of 5.34%, and the previous value was 5.99 days [1] - The current week's oil refinery unexecuted contracts are 3.3979 million tons, with a week - on - week change of 0.00%, the same as the previous value [1] Import and Cost Indicators - The current week's soybean arrival volume is 2.405 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.71%, and the previous value was 2.275 million tons [1] - The current week's Brazilian soybean duty - paid cost is 3,649 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.11%, and the previous value was 3,539 yuan/ton [1] - The current week's Brazilian soybean near - month futures crushing profit is 153 yuan, a week - on - week decrease of 24.63%, and the previous value was 203 yuan [1] Consumption Indicators - The current week's soybean meal apparent consumption is 1.4976 million tons, with a week - on - week change of 0.00%, the same as the previous value [1]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance Overnight - International precious metal futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures flat at $3,346.70 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 2.12% at $36.91 per ounce [2] - International oil prices strengthened, with the U.S. oil main contract up 1.24% at $65.38 per barrel and the Brent crude main contract up 0.96% at $67.11 per barrel [3] - London base metals closed mixed, with LME copper up 1.03% at $9,769.02 per ton and LME nickel down 0.76% at $15,325.9 per ton [4] - Domestic futures main contracts were mixed. Styrene (EB) rose more than 1%, while coking coal fell more than 2% [4] - U.S. agricultural product futures fell across the board, with CBOT corn futures down 2.15%, CBOT wheat futures down 2.25%, and CBOT soybean futures down 0.12% [4] 2. Macroeconomic News - As of June 9, 2025, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) was 1,622.81 points, up 29.5% from the previous period [7] - Citigroup postponed its forecast for the Fed's next rate cut from July to September and now expects a total of 75 basis points of cuts this year [7] - In the first five months, China's imports of iron ore decreased by 5.2%, crude oil increased by 0.3%, coal decreased by 7.9%, natural gas decreased by 9.5%, soybeans decreased by 0.7%, and refined oil decreased by 26.8% [7] - In May 2025, China's CPI was down 0.1% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month [8] - On June 9, the first meeting of the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism was held in London [9] - California Governor Gavin Newsom said he would sue the Trump administration over the National Guard deployment issue [9] 3. Energy and Chemical Futures - The local quotation of photovoltaic glass in the market has fallen below 12 yuan per square meter, with the lowest transaction price approaching 11.5 yuan per square meter [13] - As of June 6, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 3.39 million cubic meters, down 0.59% from the previous week [13] - As of June 8, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 605,500 tons, down 0.67% from the previous period [13] - Morgan Stanley said OPEC+ may be significantly increasing oil production quotas, but the actual output increase is not obvious [13] - The U.S. Bank's commodities research head said OPEC+'s oil production increase plan is part of Saudi Arabia's strategy to start a long - term but moderate price war [13] - Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman said the U.S. plan on the Iran nuclear deal is unacceptable [14] 4. Metal Futures - The listing benchmark prices for casting aluminum alloy futures contracts AD2511 - AD2605 are set at 18,365 yuan per ton [18] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange warned of high market volatility and advised members and investors to take risk - prevention measures [18] - China's lithium hydroxide production in June 2025 is expected to be 20,200 tons, down 5.8% month - on - month [19] 5. Black - series Futures - Mysteel's global iron ore shipments totaled 3.5104 million tons, up 79,400 tons week - on - week [21] - China's 47 - port iron ore arrivals totaled 2.6739 million tons, up 76,500 tons week - on - week [21] - As of the week of June 6, the total manganese ore inventory at ports was 420,200 tons, up 13,200 tons from the previous period [21] 6. Agricultural Product Futures - The central government will conduct a 10,000 - ton centralized procurement of frozen pork on June 11, 2025 [25] - As of June 6, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions of China was 812,700 tons, up 7.66% week - on - week [25] - Analysts expect Brazil's 2024/2025 soybean production to be 169.27 million tons and Argentina's to be 4.904 million tons [25] - With the arrival of imported soybeans, the soybean commercial inventory of major oil mills has reached nearly 7 million tons [26] - APK - Inform lowered its forecast for Ukraine's 2025 grain production by 4.3% to 52.9 million tons [27] - As of June 9, 2025, the port inventory of imported soybeans in China was 5.9568 million tons, up 215,970 tons from June 3 [28] - As of last Thursday, Brazilian farmers in the central - southern region had harvested 1.9% of the 2025 second - season corn, the slowest pace since 2021 [28] - In the week ending June 5, 2025, the U.S. soybean export inspection volume was 547,040 tons, and the U.S. shipped 0 tons of soybeans to China [31] - As of June 8, the U.S. soybean good - to - excellent rate was 68%, the planting rate was 90%, and the emergence rate was 75% [31] 7. Financial Markets Commodities - The first recycled metal variety, casting aluminum alloy futures and options, was listed on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on June 10, with the benchmark price for 7 contracts set at 18,365 yuan per ton [33] Bonds - Domestic inter - bank bond yields were mixed, and the central bank conducted 173.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection [36] - Japan is considering repurchasing some long - term bonds, and Japanese investors sold a large amount of German and U.S. sovereign bonds in April [36] - U.S. Treasury yields fell across the board due to concerns about bond auctions, supply - demand adjustments, and investor sentiment [37] - European bond yields generally declined due to weak economic fundamentals in the eurozone [37] Foreign Exchange - Hong Kong will maintain the linked exchange rate system and strengthen its role as an offshore RMB business center [38] - The on - shore RMB closed at 7.1838 against the U.S. dollar on Monday, up 9 basis points from the previous trading day [38] - The three major RMB exchange rate indices fell last week, hitting new lows [41] - The U.S. dollar index fell 0.19% at the New York close, and non - U.S. currencies generally rose [41] 8. Upcoming Economic Data and Events - Key economic data to be released include South Korea's April current account, the U.K.'s May unemployment rate, etc. [44] - Key events include China's central bank's reverse repurchase maturity, EIA's monthly short - term energy outlook report, and various conferences and corporate events [46]

地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/09 隔夜夜盘市场走势 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 总机：010-8535 6666 地址 ：北 京市 朝阳 区朝阳 门外 大街 甲 6 号万 通中 心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 重要资讯 1. 国际贵金属期货收盘涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货跌 1.31%报 3331.00 美元/盎 司，本周累计上涨 0.47%。COMEX 白银期货涨 0.91%报 36.13 美元/盎司，本周 累计上涨 9.39%。 2. 国际油价集体上涨，美油主力合约涨 2.21%报 64.77 美元/桶，周涨 6.55%； 布油主力合约涨 2%报 66.65 美元/桶，周涨 6.16%。 3. 伦敦基本金属收盘全线下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.71%报 9670.50 美元/吨，本周累 计上涨 1.82%；LME 期铝跌 1.07%报 2451.50 美元/吨，本周累计上涨 0.31%。 4. 国内期货主力合约涨跌不一。沥青、 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 06 日 热点品种 豆粕： 豆粕主力 09 合约今日盘面高开后震荡上升，收盘涨幅 1.90%。国际方面，美国 目前估计大豆种植面积为 8400 万英亩，较上一年度减少 3.4%，比美国农业部 3 月 31 日种植意向报告估计的 8350 万英亩多 50 万英亩。2025/26 年度美国大豆 产量预估为 1.17 亿吨（预估区间 1.08-1.22 亿吨），较上次预估持平，因种植 季早期天气条件温和，种植进度稳健，但夏季的长期天气前景仍然相当黯淡。国 内方面，截止 5 月 30 日，油厂大豆实际压榨量 226.82 万吨，开机率为 63.76%， 大豆库存 582.88 万吨，较上周增加 22.25 万吨，增幅 3.97%，同比去年增加 98.98 万吨，增幅 20.45%。豆粕库存 29.8 万吨，较上周增加 9.11 万吨，增幅 44.03%， 同比去年减少 55.81 万吨，减幅 65.19%。综合来看，豆粕期货前期盘面呈现一 轮上涨后，近 ...