Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is affected by factors such as refinery production adjustments and the availability of Venezuelan heavy - oil. Demand is constrained by funds, weather, and the progress of road construction projects [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.32% to 223,600 tons week - on - week. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt开工率 at a low level [1]. - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt开工率 decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with road construction in the north gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: The US military action in Venezuela has restricted the flow of Venezuelan heavy - oil to domestic refineries, which will affect asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.45% to 3,157 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,134 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,167 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,111 to 187,438 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract fell to - 87 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - Investment in Road Construction: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased to - 6.0% from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2% from - 1.1% in January - November 2025 [5]. - Social Financing: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November. The recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared to the week of January 9, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The coking coal market is in a stage of weak supply and demand. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly due to the upstream - downstream game. Although there is an increase in production on the supply side and accelerated inventory transfer to downstream, the downstream iron - water production has decreased, and high - price transactions are insufficient, with demand mainly supported by winter storage. There is also a probability of pre - holiday coal mine safety inspections [1]. 3) Summary according to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Coking coal prices opened low and moved lower during the day. The utilization rate of approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mines was 88.47%, a 3.13% increase from the previous period. The daily output of raw coal reached 1.9779 million tons. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a weekly decrease of 226,400 tons. Coking enterprises and steel mills increased their inventories by 611,700 tons and 44,700 tons respectively. The downstream iron - water production decreased by 0.47% week - on - week, with a weekly output of 2.2801 million tons. The futures market is expected to fluctuate mainly [1]. Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1,280 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 coking raw coal was 1,035 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main futures contract was 1,129 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 151 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply Data**: From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal开工率 of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a 3.13 - percentage - point increase from the previous period. The daily output of refined coking coal was 768,500 tons, an increase of 342,000 tons from the previous period [3]. - **Demand Data**: From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons from the previous period. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 467,200 tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons from the previous period. The daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 1.49 million tons from the previous period [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to show a slightly weak and volatile trend in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand has rigid support, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. Also, the futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures price**: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly during the day, closing at 784 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.5 yuan/ton or -0.7% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 225,000 lots, the open interest was 575,000 lots, and the settled funds were 9.922 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term, which is in line with the weak downward adjustment prediction [1]. - **Spot price**: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped by -2 to 797 yuan/ton, Super Special powder dropped by -2 to 675 yuan/ton, and the main swap price was 103.25 (-0.95) US dollars/ton. Spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - **Basis and spread**: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 824.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 40.7 yuan/ton, and the basis narrowed slightly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 17.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 14 yuan. The iron ore futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis, and although it shows a weak and volatile trend in the short - term, the overall downside space may be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with significant decreases in Australia and Brazil, and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and there are expected supply disturbances due to weather. The supply increment expectation and inventory pressure are gradually increasing [2]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and there is still rigid demand support. Steel mills are in the process of restocking, but the enthusiasm is still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream is strong. Pay attention to the recovery height of molten iron before the festival and the release rhythm of restocking demand [2]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory continued to accumulate, the berthing inventory increased slightly, and the inventory pressure is still building up. The steel mill inventory is still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macroeconomic Situation - **Overseas**: According to the December Fed Beige Book and the latest data from the US Department of Labor, the US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the December CPI decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, the core CPI was 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected, and the price of the commodity side weakened, indicating that the tariff transmission has peaked. Consumption shows a "K - shaped" characteristic, the high - income group maintains resilience, and the price sensitivity of the low - income group increases. Industrial production rebounded unexpectedly, with the December industrial output monthly rate at 0.4%, mainly driven by public utilities and manufacturing. The Fed maintains a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest rate cut expectation is postponed to June [4]. - **Domestic**: According to the data from the People's Bank of China and the General Administration of Customs, policies are focused on new fields, such as a 25bp reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Export resilience exceeded expectations, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December, significantly supported by emerging markets. Social financing data shows that corporate loans and bond financing are stronger than seasonal, but real estate and infrastructure are weak due to seasonal factors, and the M1 - M2 gap widened to 4.7%. There are clear clues for inflation improvement, and the PPI is expected to continue to recover [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The price of Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. However, both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. In the short term, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact, and although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Since 2026, the sulfuric acid price has slightly corrected, the smelter's profit has narrowed, and the spot processing fee has further weakened. Smelters plan to reduce production this year. The price of Shanghai copper corrected last week, and recycled copper enterprises made low - price purchases. With the shortage of copper concentrates and increased losses of copper smelters, scrap copper has gradually become the main source of smelting copper. Both upstream and downstream are cautious, and the raw material procurement volume is poor. In January, the refined copper output is expected to decline. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing copper is low, resulting in a significant increase in copper inventory. The terminal new - energy market performs poorly, with retail sales from January 1 - 11 being 117,000 vehicles, a 38% year - on - year decrease compared to the same period in 2025 and a 67% significant decline compared to the same period in December 2025. Although short - term decline does not mean a long - term trend, subsequent policy subsidies and the New Year's small peak season are expected to improve the production and sales situation. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream enterprises mostly start their holidays, and the copper product sector is cautious in purchasing. The US president's plan to impose tariffs on European countries has an impact. Although the short - term decline of the US dollar is beneficial to copper prices, after continuous price increases, the downstream's resistance is high, and spot sales are sluggish, dragging down copper prices. It is expected that the increase of copper prices will be limited before the Spring Festival holiday without major positive stimuli [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Shanghai copper opened low and moved low, but turned positive at the end of the session. Spot: The spot premium in East China today is - 150 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 145 yuan/ton. On January 20, 2026, the LME official price was 12,937 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was + 122 US dollars/ton [4] 3.3 Supply Side - As of the latest data on January 15, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) is - 46.2 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) is - 4.80 US cents/pound [6] 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: The SHFE copper inventory is 145,600 tons, a decrease of 2,612 tons from the previous period. As of January 19, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone is 106,100 tons, an increase of 500 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 156,300 tons, an increase of 8,875 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 547,600 short tons, an increase of 4,715 short tons from the previous period [9]

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2026年1月21日 【行情分析】 1月4日，欧佩克+发布声明，决定维持2025年11月初制定的产量计划，在2026年2月和3月继续暂 停增产。原油需求淡季，EIA数据显示，美国原油库存超预期累库，同时汽油库存增幅超预期，整体 油品库存继续增加。美国原油产量小幅减少，仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普警告，如果印度不按 美方要求限制购买俄罗斯石油，美国可能继续提高对印度产品征收的关税。印度在2025年12月对俄 原油进口已跌至三年低点，较6月峰值下降三分之一。近期国际货币基金组织将2026年世界经济增速 上调0.2个百分点，寒冷天气推动柴油取暖需求，需求担忧有所缓解。不过，全球原油浮库高企，原 油仍是供应过剩格局，EIA最新的1月月报上调了2026年原油供应过剩幅度。特朗普称委内瑞拉将向 美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，雪佛龙正加大对于委内瑞拉原油的运输。目前委内瑞拉对于全球 原油供需影响不大。特朗普在白宫表示，收到了"来自伊朗非常积极的声明"，"我们要先观望局 势发展"，伊朗国内骚乱得到控制，不过目前美国并未排除采取军事行动的可能性，伊朗地缘风险 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：溢价回落，注意支撑 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于棉花信息网、沐甜科技、 泛糖科技、金十期货网站。 本报告发布机构 --冠通期货股份有限公司（已获中国证监会许可的期货交易咨询业务资格） 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任 何保证。报告中的内容和意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。 我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的任何直接或间接损失概不负责。 本报告仅向特定客户传送 构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版、复制、引用或转载。 棉花：在上年度低库存的现实基础与新年度低进口的未来预期下，国内新年 度整体供应增幅缩窄，而下游在棉纱产能扩张下，棉花刚性消费提升，市场预期 本年度末国内棉花供需或偏紧，同时 26/27 年度疆棉面积下调预期仍存，但国内 棉价走强后，下游纺纱利润受到挤压，内外棉价差也大幅走扩，进口纱或阶段性 增加流入，对棉价上方形成压力。下方空间相对有限，短期偏调整看待为主。 白糖：2025 年，我国进口食糖 491.79 万吨，同比增 56.14 万吨（ ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The futures market of methanol maintains a volatile trend, and the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - level has not been effectively broken. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities after a decline. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state, and it is prone to a low - level rebound. Attention should be paid to the changes in sentiment due to frequent macro news [3]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of January 14, 2026, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.4403 million tons, a decrease of 96,900 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory in East China decreased by 84,400 tons, and that in South China decreased by 12,500 tons. The significant reduction in port inventory this week was mainly due to the small total unloading volume, with 96,100 tons of explicit outer - ship unloading and 125,000 tons of non - explicit inclusion. The提货 in the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu was okay, while that in other social storage areas in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was average. Although there were new terminal shutdowns in Zhejiang, the inventory decreased significantly due to less unloading. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased with a small amount of imports and domestic trade arrivals and stable提货 in the mainstream storage areas. In Fujian, with imports and domestic trade supplementing the supply and downstream consumption on - demand, the inventory fluctuated little [1]. Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission will study, formulate and introduce an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. Multiple departments including the Ministry of Finance will implement a loan interest - subsidy policy for small, medium and micro enterprises, set up a 500 - billion - yuan special guarantee plan for private investment to be implemented over two years, and extend the implementation period of the fiscal interest - subsidy policy for personal consumer loans to the end of 2026. In 2026, the fiscal department will strongly support the stability of employment, enterprises, the market and expectations [2]. Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market of methanol maintains a volatile trend, and the support of the 60 - day moving average at the daily - level needs to be focused on in the short term. There is a high possibility of an inventory inflection point in the first quarter, and buying opportunities after a decline can be appropriately paid attention to. Currently, methanol is in a low - valuation state and is prone to a low - level rebound. Attention should be paid to the changes in sentiment due to frequent macro news [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to oscillate weakly due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits. The L - PP spread is expected to decline as there are newly added plastic production capacities and decreasing agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week ending January 16th, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year. On January 21st, the number of maintenance devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained around 80% (a neutral - to - low level), and the drawstring production ratio rose to around 27.5%. Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but was average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years. The Iran situation has cooled, and recent crude oil prices have declined. There is a new 400,000 - ton/year production capacity from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical put into operation in mid - October, and the number of recent maintenance devices has slightly decreased. The price of downstream BOPP film has rebounded, but new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited as the Spring Festival holiday approaches. The macro sentiment has faded, and the PP supply - demand pattern has limited improvement [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The PP2605 contract oscillated with increasing positions, with a minimum price of 6446 yuan/ton, a maximum of 6491 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6485 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average, up 0.42%. The open interest increased by 2082 lots to 468323 lots [2] - Spot: Most spot prices of PP in various regions declined. Drawstring PP was reported at 6150 - 6610 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On January 21st, the number of maintenance devices changed little, the PP enterprise operating rate remained around 80% (a neutral - to - low level), and the drawstring production ratio rose to around 27.5% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending January 16th, after the New Year's Day holiday, the PP downstream operating rate decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years. The operating rate of plastic weaving, the main downstream of drawstring PP, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6%, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday decreased by 10,000 tons to 550,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January but was average recently, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period of recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil contract 03 rose to $64 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at $785 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the coke industry is "sideways" [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall supply - demand of coke is weak during the seasonal inventory accumulation phase, with relatively stable downstream steel mill hot - metal production and on - demand restocking. The real - estate investment growth decline continues to widen, and long - term demand continues to decline. With a generally positive macro - environment, the coke market will mainly show wide - range fluctuations. In the short term, attention should be paid to the support performance near the previous low, and a low - buying strategy can be adopted [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Coke Inventory: As of January 16th, independent coke enterprise inventory decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons, steel mill inventory increased to 650.33 tons, port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons, and the comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a 7 - month high, with a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] - Profit: The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is -53 yuan/ton, -7 yuan/ton in another record, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke average profit is -105 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke average profit is -12 yuan/ton [1] - Downstream Demand: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, a year - on - year increase of 1.66 percentage points. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate decreased to 85.48%, and the daily hot - metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.53 tons [1] Upstream Coking Coal - Coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased by 7.66%, independent coke enterprise coking coal inventory increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, steel mill coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and port imported coking coal inventory continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, lower than the previous year's level [2] News - In 2025, the fiscal deficit ratio was about 4%, up one percentage point from the previous year, and the new government debt scale was 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year. In 2026, the total fiscal deficit, debt, and expenditure will be maintained at a necessary level. Five departments including the Ministry of Finance announced a loan interest subsidy policy for small, medium, and micro - enterprises. The Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development stated that efforts will be made to stabilize the real - estate market this year and support the reasonable financing needs of real - estate enterprises [2]

发布日期：2026 年 1 月 21 日 【冠通期货研究报告】 大豆：国内大豆现货市场呈现涨跌互现、整体稳定的运行格局。产区市场价 格小幅波动，一方面近期市场走货节奏偏弱，另一方面部分前期底价货源出现小 幅补涨，多空因素交织下产区价格总体保持稳定；销区市场价格则出现小幅回落， 下游食品企业需求持续疲软，采购以随采随用为主，市场交投氛围清淡。今天国 产大豆购销双向 66116 吨，全部成交，说明市场需求存在一定支撑。预估大豆延 续震荡走势。 养殖产业链日报：近月宽松明显 注：本报告有关现货市场的资讯与行情信息，来源于我的钢铁网、中储粮网、 粮达网、金十期货网站。 玉米：本周进口玉米定向邀标投放量从 20 万吨缩减至 10 万吨随后暂停，成 为支撑东北农户惜售和现货价格偏强的重要心理因素。而中储粮在东北等主产区 同步增加常规轮换玉米竞价销售规模，1 月 16 日黑吉辽三省同时启动拍卖，这 种部分收紧、部分释放的调节模式，进一步增加了未来政策投放节奏及力度的不 确定性，也限制了贸易商的囤货热情。短期玉米市场在刚性需求支撑下，继续保 持高位偏强运行格局，春节前备货节奏将是核心驱动因素。强烈的惜售心态、政 策预期与疲弱 ...