Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Core View of the Report - The coking coal market is under pressure. The futures price of coking coal opened lower and moved lower intraday. Although the downstream steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production during the winter storage period and are expected to increase the procurement of raw materials, the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia may have an impact on the market, and it is necessary to pay attention to the subsequent impact of the accident. At present, China still releases a signal of stable growth, so there is support below the coking coal price [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The coking coal futures opened lower and moved lower intraday. On the supply side, the utilization rate of the approved production capacity of 523 coking coal mine samples was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13%. After the resumption of work, the inventory of coking coal mines decreased significantly, with a week - on - week decrease of 22.64 tons. The coking enterprises increased their inventory by 61.17 tons, and the steel mills increased their inventory by 4.47 tons. The downstream molten iron output decreased by 0.47% month - on - month, with a weekly output of 228.01 tons. The steel mills still have the expectation of resuming production, and the procurement of raw materials is expected to increase. Pay attention to the subsequent impact of the explosion accident at Baogang Plate Factory in Inner Mongolia [1] Spot Data - In the Shanxi market (Jiexiu), the mainstream price was 1270 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The self - pick - up price of Mongolian No. 5 main coking raw coal was 1045 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The closing price of the main contract futures was 1124 yuan/ton, and the basis in Jiexiu, Shanxi was 146 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [2] Fundamental Tracking Supply Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the coking coal operating rate of 523 domestic sample mines was 88.47%, a month - on - month increase of 3.13 percentage points; the daily output of clean coking coal was 76.85 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.42 tons [3] Demand Data - From January 9th to January 16th, the daily output of downstream independent coking enterprises was 63.45 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.12 tons; the daily output of coke from 247 steel mills was 46.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.16 tons; the daily output of molten iron from 247 steel mills was 228.01 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 tons [5]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of coke is directly affected by coking coal cost, steel demand, and macro - policy orientation. Currently, the comprehensive inventories of coking coal and coke continue to rise, and the overall supply - demand is weak. The downstream steel mill's hot metal production is relatively stable, and they replenish stocks as needed. The real - estate investment growth rate decline continues to expand, and the industry is under short - term pressure due to negative real - estate data. With a generally warm macro - environment and the implementation of domestic reserve requirement ratio cuts, the market awaits further policy guidance. In the short term, it is under pressure and may decline, and attention should be paid to the support performance near the previous low. Overall, it will mainly show wide - range fluctuations, and a low - buying strategy can be considered [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Coke Inventory - As of January 16, the inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 4.95% month - on - month to 81.81 tons. The steel mill inventory increased to 650.33 tons, and the port inventory increased by 6.41% to 265.07 tons. The comprehensive coke inventory increased by 16.31 tons to 997.21 tons, reaching a 7 - month high and a year - on - year decrease of over 2% [1] 2. Coke Profit - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is - 65 yuan/ton. The average profit of Shandong quasi - first - grade coke is - 53 yuan/ton, and another data shows - 7 yuan/ton. The average profit of Inner Mongolia second - grade coke is - 105 yuan/ton, and the average profit of Hebei quasi - first - grade coke is - 12 yuan/ton [1] 3. Downstream Demand - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.47 percentage points to 78.84%, an increase of 1.66 percentage points compared to the same period last year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate dropped to 85.48%. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 1.49 tons month - on - month to 228.01 tons, an increase of 3.53 tons compared to the same period last year [1] 4. Upstream Coking Coal - The coking coal inventory in coal mines decreased by 7.66%. The coking coal inventory of independent coke enterprises increased by 5.71% to 1132.85 tons, the steel mill coking coal inventory slightly increased to 802.2 tons, and the port imported coking coal inventory continued to increase. The comprehensive coking coal inventory increased by nearly 2% month - on - month to 2769.85 tons, which is lower than the previous year's level [2] 5. News - The National Development and Reform Commission aims to promote a reasonable recovery of prices and will study and formulate an implementation plan for the strategy of expanding domestic demand from 2026 to 2030. It is also researching and formulating actions to stabilize employment, expand employment, and improve quality, as well as a plan to increase the income of urban and rural residents. The Ministry of Finance will continue to arrange ultra - long - term special treasury bonds for "two important" construction and "two new" work in 2026 [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View - The iron ore market is currently in a state of slight weakness in the short - term, but the overall downside space is limited. The supply side of new shipments is gradually decreasing, the demand side is slightly recovering, and the inventory in ports is gradually shifting to downstream steel mills. The futures contract shows a back structure + positive basis with futures at a discount [5]. 3. Summary of Each Section Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures continued to decline weakly, closing at 789.5 yuan/ton, down 4.5 yuan/ton or 0.57% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 363,000 lots, the open interest was 587,000 lots, and the settled funds were 10.187 billion yuan. The futures market is expected to test the support around 780 in the short - term [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, dropped 10 yuan to 794 yuan, and Super Special powder dropped 10 yuan to 670 yuan. The swap main contract was 104.2 US dollars/ton (- 0.75 US dollars). The spot and swap prices declined again [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of PB powder at Qingdao Port converted to the futures price was 823.7 yuan/ton, and the basis was 34.2 yuan/ton, with a significant contraction. The spread between iron ore contracts 2 - 5 was 17.5 yuan, and the spread between 5 - 9 was 18 yuan. The iron ore futures contracts showed a back structure + positive basis. Although it showed a weak shock in the short - term, the overall downside space might be limited [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply: Overseas mine shipments decreased month - on - month, with a significant decline in Australia and Brazil and an increase in non - mainstream countries. The current arrival volume decreased month - on - month, and there were expectations of supply disturbances due to weather. The arrival of the first batch of iron ore from Mangu increased the expected supply pressure [2]. - Demand: The molten iron output decreased month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills recovered, and the rigid demand was still supported. Steel mills were in the process of replenishing inventory, but the enthusiasm was still weak, and the game between upstream and downstream was strong. Attention should be paid to the recovery height of molten iron and the release rhythm of replenishment demand before the Spring Festival [2]. - Inventory: Ports continued to accumulate inventory, the inventory under pressure increased slightly, and the inventory pressure was still accumulating. The inventory of steel mills was still significantly lower than the historical average [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Overseas: The US economy maintained a "light to moderate" expansion, inflation continued to cool down, the CPI in December decreased to 2.7% year - on - year, and the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month, lower than expected. Consumption showed a "K - shaped" characteristic, and industrial production rebounded unexpectedly. The Fed maintained a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and the interest - rate cut expectation was postponed to June [4]. - Domestic: Policies focused on new fields, such as a 25 - basis - point reduction in the interest rate of structural monetary policy tools and investment plans for the new power system of the power grid. Exports were more resilient than expected, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.6% in December. Social financing data showed that corporate loans and bond financing were stronger than seasonal, but the real estate and infrastructure were seasonally weak. The improvement of inflation was clear, and PP was expected to continue to recover [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The current demand for rebar is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy has a contraction expectation for production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downward, and real estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. There may still be a possibility of weakness in the short - term, but it is not advisable to chase short positions. Attention should be paid to whether the support near the previous lows can stabilize. [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The rebar main contract increased its position by 13,280 lots on Tuesday, with a lower trading volume compared to the previous trading day (936,583 lots). It decreased with increasing positions during the day, falling below the 5 - day, 130 - day, and 60 - day moving averages, with a low of 3110, a high of 3147, and closing at 3111 yuan/ton, a decrease of 37 yuan/ton or 1.18%. [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar was 3280 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day. [1] - Basis: The futures were at a discount of 169 yuan/ton to the spot. The large basis provided some support, and there was a certain cost - effectiveness for winter storage on the futures. [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of the week of January 15, rebar production decreased by 0.74 tons week - on - week to 1.903 million tons, after four consecutive weeks of increase. The year - on - year decrease was 29,900 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 surveyed steel mills was 78.84%, a decrease of 0.47 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.66 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a decrease of 0.56 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 1.20 percentage points year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, an increase of 2.17 percentage points week - on - week and a decrease of 10.39 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a decrease of 14,900 tons week - on - week. This week's production decline and the relatively low weekly production in recent years provided some support for prices. [2] - Demand: Apparent consumption rebounded, indicating the possible start of winter storage. As of the week of January 15, the apparent consumption increased by 153,800 tons week - on - week to 1.9034 million tons, and the year - on - year increase was 51,900 tons. After three consecutive weeks of decline, the apparent consumption increased significantly, indicating the possible start of winter storage demand. [2] - Inventory: There was a slight inventory reduction, with a decrease in mill inventory and an increase in social inventory. As of the week of January 15, the total inventory decreased by 400 tons week - on - week to 4.3807 million tons. The social inventory was 2.9541 million tons, an increase of 52,300 tons week - on - week but still at a relatively low level in recent years, and the mill inventory was 1.4266 million tons, a decrease of 52,700 tons. The increase in social inventory indicated weak downstream demand, and the decrease in mill inventory indicated some winter storage by traders. [3] - Macroeconomics: The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary policy transmission mechanism. Efforts were made to stabilize the real estate market, control the increment, reduce inventory, and optimize the supply according to local conditions. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December, which was in line with expectations. The macro - economic outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macroscopically, the incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided support, and the demand ceiling determined the pressure. [3] Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Inventory at a three - year low, anti - involution production cuts on the supply side, strict production capacity control, policy support for demand, marginal improvement in post - festival demand, and a loose macro - economic outlook. [4] - Bearish factors: Excessive inventory accumulation after the Spring Festival, slower inventory clearance, accelerated blast furnace复产, cautious winter storage demand, continuous decline in real estate demand, restricted exports, and weak economic recovery. [4] Short - Term View Summary - The current rebar demand is seasonally weak, but the data released this week shows an increase, indicating that winter storage demand is starting. Production has slightly decreased and is relatively low compared to recent years. The anti - involution policy has a contraction expectation for production capacity, providing support. Inventory has slightly decreased and is at a relatively low level with little pressure. The cost support has shifted downward, and real estate demand continues the downward cycle, limiting the upside. However, infrastructure demand may have some resilience. There may still be a possibility of weakness in the short - term, but it is not advisable to chase short positions. Attention should be paid to whether the support near the previous lows can stabilize. [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a state of supply surplus, and the EIA's January monthly report has raised the forecast for the supply surplus in 2026. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate and consolidate, and the recent situation of the confrontation between Europe, America and Greenland also needs attention [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and suspend production increases in February and March 2026. During the off - season of crude oil demand, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories increased more than expected, and gasoline inventories also increased more than expected, with overall oil product inventories continuing to rise. U.S. crude oil production decreased slightly but remained near the historical high. Trump warned that if India does not limit its purchase of Russian oil as required by the U.S., the U.S. may further increase tariffs on Indian products. India's imports of Russian crude oil in December 2025 fell to a three - year low, down one - third from the peak in June. The crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the U.S. are low, and the market still worries about crude oil demand. Exports from the Middle East have increased, and global floating crude oil storage is high. Trump said Venezuela would transfer 30 million to 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The situation in Iran and the Russia - Ukraine negotiation also affect the market [1] Futures and Spot Market - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, fell 1.27% to 437.0 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 436.3 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 440.8 yuan/ton, and an open interest that decreased by 723 to 40,047 lots [2] Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand forecast from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production forecast from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. As of the week of January 9, U.S. crude oil inventories increased by 3.391 million barrels, gasoline inventories increased by 8.977 million barrels, and refined oil inventories decreased by 29,000 barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 745,000 barrels. OPEC's October crude oil production decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.481 million barrels per day, and its November 2025 production decreased by 1,000 barrels per day to 28.480 million barrels per day. OPEC+ November production increased by 43,000 barrels per day compared with October to 43.06 million barrels per day. U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 9 decreased by 58,000 barrels per day to 13.753 million barrels per day [3] Consumption Data - According to the latest data of the U.S. Energy Agency, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 19.98 million barrels per day, a 1.67% increase compared with the same period last year. Gasoline weekly production increased by 1.64% to 8.304 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.495 million barrels per day, the same as last year. Diesel weekly production increased by 28.20% to 4.096 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.707 million barrels per day, a 2.23% increase compared with the same period last year. The supply of U.S. crude oil products increased by 9.27% week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the soda ash industry is "oscillating weakly" [1] Core Viewpoint of the Report - Although the short - term sentiment is slightly supported by news, considering the intensifying industrial contradiction of over - capacity, it is advisable to adopt the strategy of shorting on rebounds. Future attention should be paid to downstream demand, macro - policies, and market sentiment changes [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - **Futures Market**: The main soda ash contract opened high and closed low, with an intraday weakening trend. The 120 - minute Bollinger Bands' three tracks are downward, indicating a short - term weakening trend. The intraday resistance is near the 20 - day moving average, and support is near the lower Bollinger Band. Trading volume decreased by 297,000 lots compared to the previous day, and open interest decreased by 3,291 lots. The intraday high was 1,195, the low was 1,173, and the closing price was 1,177, down 24 yuan/ton or 2% from the previous settlement price [1] - **Spot Market**: The spot market is running steadily. Enterprise equipment is fluctuating slightly. Lianyungang Soda Industry's equipment is gradually recovering, and Debang's output has been slightly adjusted, with the overall output increasing slightly. Downstream demand is tepid, with buyers purchasing on an as - needed basis at low prices. The short - term market lacks substantial support, and prices are adjusting steadily [1] - **Basis**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in North China is 1,250 yuan/ton, with a basis of 73 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - **Supply**: As of January 15, domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21,700 tons or 2.88%. Light soda ash production was 361,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 413,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 9,300 tons. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 86.82%, up 2.43 percentage points from the previous week. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 89.95%, down 0.46 percentage points; the joint - soda process capacity utilization rate was 78.88%, up 4.77 percentage points. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 89.47%, up 1.32 percentage points [2] - **Inventory**: As of January 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.5442 million tons, a decrease of 30,800 tons or 1.96% from the previous Thursday. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 822,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14,400 tons, and heavy soda ash inventory was 721,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16,400 tons [2] - **Demand**: The shipment volume of soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 31.20%. The overall shipment rate was 99.70%, up 21.52 percentage points. Downstream demand for soda ash is average, mainly focusing on inventory consumption and low - price procurement. Light soda ash demand is relatively stable, while the rigid demand for heavy soda ash has weakened due to the cold repair of glass production lines [2][3] - **Profit**: According to Longzhong Information, the theoretical profit of the joint - soda process (per double - ton) was - 44 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 66.46%. During the week, the price of raw material rock salt was stable, while the price of thermal coal increased, leading to higher costs [3] Main Logic Summary - Currently, the capacity utilization rate of soda ash remains high, and with the gradual release of new production capacity, the overall production is constantly increasing. The cold - repair pace of glass has slowed down in the short term, and the rigid demand for soda ash has slightly recovered. Additionally, due to continuous losses and recent positive news, there is some short - term support. However, considering the intensifying over - capacity issue, a strategy of shorting on rebounds is recommended [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is expected to show a strong and fluctuating trend in the 03 - 05 contracts under the stimulation of the cancellation of export tax rebates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream Northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. The downstream operating rate decreased by 0.11 percentage points due to winter, with poor downstream product orders and low willingness to stock up actively [1] - Affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, there was a rush to export in the market last week, with a significant increase in PVC export orders to a recent high. However, as export prices rise, the resistance to transactions is increasing [1] - The social inventory continued to increase last week and remains high, with significant inventory pressure. The real estate is still in the adjustment stage from January to December 2025, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, and completion [1] - The weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to recover, but it is still at the lowest level in recent years, and it will take time for the real estate to improve. The macro - sentiment has subsided, the comprehensive gross profit of chlor - alkali is under pressure, and the operating expectations of some production enterprises have declined, but the current production decline is limited. The PVC operating rate has changed little, and the futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, with limited demand in India [1] - January is the traditional off - season for domestic PVC demand. As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream buyers are resistant to high prices, with average purchasing enthusiasm, and the social inventory continues to increase [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 4,770 yuan/ton, the highest was 4,841 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 4,807 yuan/ton, below the 20 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.25% and an increase in open interest of 22,859 lots to 1,037,034 lots [2] - On January 20, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in the East China region remained at 4,580 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,807 yuan/ton. The current basis was - 227 yuan/ton, strengthening by 21 yuan/ton, and the basis was at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, affected by plants such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan, the PVC operating rate decreased by 0.04 percentage points to 79.63% on a month - on - month basis, remaining basically stable and at a neutral level in recent years. New production capacities, including Wanhua Chemical with 500,000 tons/year, Tianjin Bohua with 400,000 tons/year, Qingdao Gulf with 200,000 tons/year, and Gansu Yaowang with 300,000 tons/year, were put into production in the second half of 2025. Jiaxing Jiahua with 300,000 tons/year started trial production in December 2025 [4] - On the demand side, the real estate is still in the adjustment stage, with large year - on - year declines in investment, new construction, and completion areas, and further declines in year - on - year growth rates of investment, sales, construction, and completion. From January to December 2025, the national real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The commercial housing sales area was 881.01 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8.7%; the residential sales area decreased by 9.2%. The commercial housing sales volume was 839.37 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.6%, and the residential sales volume decreased by 13.0%. The new housing construction area was 587.70 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.4%; the new residential construction area was 429.84 million square meters, a decrease of 19.8%. The housing construction area of real estate development enterprises was 6.5989 billion square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 10.0%. The housing completion area was 603.48 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 18.1%; the residential completion area was 428.30 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 20.2%. Overall, it will take time for the real estate to improve [5] - As of the week of January 18, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities increased by 6.20% on a month - on - month basis, at the lowest level in recent years. Attention should be paid to whether real estate favorable policies can boost commercial housing sales [5] - As of the week of January 15, the PVC social inventory increased by 2.70% on a month - on - month basis to 1.1441 million tons, 48.60% higher than the same period last year. The social inventory continued to increase and remains high [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 【期现行情】 期货方面： 今日沥青期货2603合约下跌0.03%至3139元/吨，5日均线下方，最低价在3124元/吨，最高价 3156元/吨，持仓量减少985至190549手。 基差方面： 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 山东地区主流市场价下跌至3070元/吨，沥青03合约基差下跌至-69元/吨，处于中性偏低水 平。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 发布日期：2026年1月20日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升1.8个百分点至27.2%，较去年同期高了0.2个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌2个百分点至15%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主力炼厂复产，供应有所 增加，其出货量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加6.32%至22.36万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库 存率环比继续上升，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。美国突袭委内瑞 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The market is uncertain about the later-stage state reserve release schedule, and the recent premium transactions of imported soybeans indicate a supply gap and strong short - term demand. Near - month soybean meal is expected to fluctuate strongly, while far - month contracts may weaken due to the bearish effect of the USDA report and could decline further if South American harvest progresses well [1]. - In 2026, palm oil production is predicted to grow 1.0% moderately, but due to weak demand, exports will remain low at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks will stay high at 3.18 million tons. Palm oil prices are expected to be between 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year. Palm oil's price advantage, upcoming festivals, and the low - production season will support prices. The purchase of Canadian rapeseed by a Chinese importer may affect Australia's sales. Although the Indonesian palm oil B50 plan has failed and the upside potential is limited, there is significant buying support. The cost of crushing Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff is still high, providing strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2]. 3) Summaries by Related Content Soybean Meal - As of January 16, 2026, the soybean harvest progress in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 1.39%, up from 0.53% a week ago, compared to 0.23% last year and 2.38% in 2024, with a five - year average of 1.02% [1]. - The South Atlantic Convergence Zone (SACZ) will bring continuous rainfall to most parts of Brazil in the next few weeks, affecting the harvest and sowing in major production areas until the second half of January [1]. Vegetable Oils - MBSB predicts a 1.0% moderate growth in palm oil production in 2026, with exports at 15.1 million tons and ending stocks at 3.18 million tons. The price is expected to be 4,200 - 4,250 ringgit per ton, with a mild increase in the second half of the year [2]. - A Chinese importer bought a 60,000 - ton Panamax cargo of Canadian rapeseed after the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to Beijing, which may boost Canadian exports and weaken Australia's sales. The cargo is expected to be shipped after March [2]. - The failure of Indonesia's palm oil B50 plan limits the upside potential, but there is significant buying support. The high crushing cost of Canadian rapeseed under a 15% tariff provides strong support for rapeseed oil prices [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The PP market is expected to experience a weakening oscillatory trend within a certain range due to limited improvement in the supply - demand pattern, shorter downstream order cycles, and shrinking downstream product profits [1] - The L - PP price spread is expected to decline as there is new production capacity for plastics and the L开工率 is higher than that of PP, along with a continuous decline in agricultural film orders [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - As of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, remaining at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years [1][4] - The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP drawstring products, dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On January 20, new maintenance units such as the first and second lines of Juzhengyuan Phase I were added. The operating rate of PP enterprises decreased to around 80%, at a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [1][4] - Petrochemical inventory reduction was good in the first and middle of January, but it has been average recently. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a moderate level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - The cost of crude oil has decreased as the US has postponed military strikes against Iran and the situation in Iran has cooled down [1] - There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has slightly decreased recently [1] - The price of BOPP film in the downstream has rebounded, but with the approaching Spring Festival holiday, new orders for downstream plastic weaving are limited [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PP2605 contract decreased by 0.72% in a volatile manner, with a closing price of 6461 yuan/ton, above the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 4253 lots to 466,241 lots [2] - Most spot prices of PP in various regions have declined, with drawstring products priced at 6240 - 6680 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on January 20, new maintenance units led to a decrease in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 80%, and the production ratio of standard drawstring products dropped to around 26% [4] - On the demand side, as of the week of January 16, the downstream operating rate of PP decreased by 0.07 percentage points to 52.53% week - on - week, and the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry dropped by 0.32 percentage points to 42.6% week - on - week [4] - Petrochemical inventory in the early morning of Tuesday was flat at 560,000 tons compared to the previous day, 40,000 tons higher than the same period last year [4] Raw Material End - The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below 64 US dollars per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained flat at 785 US dollars per ton [6]