Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The copper price has faced upward resistance and has not broken through the oscillation range. The supply side remains stable, while the downstream demand is marginally weakening, and the inventory depletion has slowed down. Geopolitical conflicts have increased macro - uncertainty. Currently, the copper price is in the range of 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton, and the subsequent focus is on the implementation of Sino - US copper tariffs [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Geopolitical tensions have increased economic uncertainty. The year - on - year increase in domestic social retail sales reached the highest since December 2023, and the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year. From January to May, urban fixed - asset investment increased by 3.7%, and real estate development investment decreased by 10.7% year - on - year [1]. - On the supply side, the port inventory of refined copper ore has increased, and the negative value of domestic smelting fees has expanded, indicating a potential reduction in production. However, copper production remains at a high level. On the demand side, downstream purchasing willingness is insufficient, the market is cautious at high prices, the downstream operating rate has slowed down, and the household appliance industry's production schedule has shrunk [1]. - Overall, the supply is stable, the downstream demand is weakening, the inventory depletion has slowed down, and the copper price has not broken through the oscillation range. It is expected to remain in the 78,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton range in the short term [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The Shanghai copper futures opened high and closed slightly higher, at 78,570. The long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3,558 to 127,151 lots, and the short positions decreased by 7,873 to 115,260 lots [4]. - Spot: The spot premium in East China and South China was 220 yuan/ton. On June 16, 2025, the LME official price was $9,670/ton, and the spot premium was $68/ton [4]. Supply Side As of June 13, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - $43.91/tonne dry, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.40 cents/pound [5]. Fundamental Tracking - SHFE copper inventory was 36,300 tons, an increase of 3,484 tons from the previous period. As of June 17, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 54,500 tons, an increase of 20,800 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 107,600 tons, a slight increase of 225 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 197,400 short tons, an increase of 1,315 short tons from the previous period [9].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The urea fundamentals remain loose. The current rebound is mainly driven by increased purchases from traders at low prices and the strengthening of the energy - chemical sector stimulated by the Israel - Iran conflict, mostly led by market sentiment with no obvious improvement in fundamentals. The upward trend may not be sustainable, but the upcoming agricultural demand and export will limit the price movement range [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market continued to rebound by nearly 4% today, and upstream factory prices increased to varying degrees, boosting market sentiment and downstream trading atmosphere. The price increase this week was also affected by the Israel - Iran conflict, which stimulated the domestic price through the expectation of international supply disruption. - On the supply side, the daily production of urea remained above 200,000 tons, with narrow long - term fluctuations, suppressing the upward movement of the market. - On the demand side, agricultural fertilizer preparation improved, with corn top - dressing in the Northeast about to start and agricultural demand in North China expected to start next month. The compound fertilizer factories had a decreased operating load, slow progress in autumn fertilizer production, and difficulty in inventory reduction, resulting in weak demand for urea. - Last week's inventory data showed an increase in factory inventory. After the export of goods at the end of the month, the inventory pressure will be relieved [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The urea main 2509 contract opened at 1730 yuan/ton and closed at 1774 yuan/ton, up 3.99%. The trading volume was 285,825 lots (+6,801 lots). Among the top 20 major positions, long positions increased by 6,383 lots and short positions decreased by 8,785 lots. For example, Guotai Junan's net long positions increased by 4,697 lots, and Zhongtai Futures' net long positions decreased by 5,624 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Upstream factory prices increased, and the market sentiment improved. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1740 - 1770 yuan/ton, up 30 - 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [5]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotes were stable, and the futures closing price rebounded. Based on Shandong, the basis of the September contract weakened by 11 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day [8]. - **Supply**: On June 17, 2025, the national daily urea production was 202,500 tons, the same as the previous day [10]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: On June 17, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5,810, a decrease of 112 from the previous trading day. Among them, Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 82, and Liaoning Fertilizer decreased by 30 [3].

【冠通研究】 反弹后逢高做空 PP下游开工率环比回落0.04个百分点至49.97%，处于历年同期偏低水平。其中塑编开工率环比下 降0.3个百分点至44.4%，塑编订单略有减少，略高于前两年同期。美国加征关税不利于PP下游制品出 口同时聚丙烯上游丙烷进口受限。徐州海天等检修装置重启开车，PP企业开工率上涨至86%左右，处 于中性水平，标品拉丝生产比例上涨至27%左右。端午假期石化累库较多，之后石化去库速度一般， 石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平。以色列与伊朗相互袭击，中东地缘风险急剧升温，加上中美同意 落实经贸会谈成果，美国5月CPI数据全线低于预期及美国原油库存去库，原油价格大幅上涨。供应 上埃克森惠州两套装置投产放量，近期检修装置有所重启，南方梅雨季节到来，下游恢复缓慢，塑 编开工略有减少，新增订单有限，库存压力仍大，不过中美同意落实经贸会谈成果，原油大幅上涨， 商品情绪好转，预计PP小幅反弹。 【期现行情】 期货方面： PP2509合约减仓震荡运行，最低价7070元/吨，最高价7134元/吨，最终收盘于7125元/吨， 在20日均线上方，涨幅0.25%。持仓量减少4930手至455542手。 现货方面： PP ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests a strategy of unilateral waiting and going long on the spread between asphalt 09 - 12 contracts. As the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long on the asphalt 09 - 12 spread. However, due to the large fluctuations of crude oil affected by geopolitical risks, cautious operation is required [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and continued to rise, being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years. In June, local refineries are expected to produce 1.309 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 tons (5.2%) and a year - on - year increase of 370,000 tons (39.3%) [1]. - Demand side: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt remained flat at 25.6% week - on - week, still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years, restricted by funds. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 7.98% week - on - week to 272,000 tons, at a moderate level. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries continued to decline week - on - week and remained at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The demand in the north performed well, while the south was still affected by intermittent rainfall and funds were still restricted [1]. - Market environment: The negotiation on the US - Iran nuclear agreement has reached a deadlock and has been indefinitely suspended. The US has increased sanctions on Iran, and Israel and Iran have attacked each other, expanding the targets to energy facilities, leading to a sharp increase in geopolitical risks in the Middle East. The panic about the global trade war has eased, but the shadow of the global trade war has not completely dissipated. The Trump administration has issued a simplified license to Chevron, allowing it to stay in Venezuela for minimal equipment maintenance but banning oil production. Attention should be paid to the changes in Venezuela's crude oil exports. Recently, asphalt has followed crude oil to fluctuate strongly, but crude oil fluctuates greatly due to geopolitical risks [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2509 contract fell 0.03% to 3,644 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,593 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,655 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 6,817 to 259,759 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 3,800 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 09 contract rose to 156 yuan/ton, at a relatively high level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Some devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou resumed production intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.2 percentage points to 31.5% week - on - week, 9.3 percentage points higher than the same period last year, continuing to rise and being at a moderately low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Demand - related investment data: From January to April, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate declined slightly compared with that from January to March 2025, still being negative. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry was - 0.9%, a slight decline from - 0.2% from January to March 2025. From January to April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) was 5.8%, the same as that from January to March 2025 [4]. - Fiscal policy: The government work report proposes to implement a more proactive fiscal policy. This year, the deficit ratio is planned to be around 4%, an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year, and the deficit scale is 5.66 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.6 trillion yuan from the previous year. The general public budget expenditure scale is 29.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.2 trillion yuan from the previous year. It is planned to issue ultra - long - term special treasury bonds worth 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from the previous year, and special treasury bonds worth 500 billion yuan to support the capital replenishment of large state - owned commercial banks. It is planned to arrange local government special bonds worth 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from the previous year. The total newly - added government debt scale this year is 11.86 trillion yuan, an increase of 2.9 trillion yuan from the previous year [4]. Inventory - As of the week of June 13, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 17.6% compared with the week of June 6, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In May, China's economic data showed positive trends, with the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increasing by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods growing by 6.4%. High - end manufacturing and digital economy continued to expand, with the added - value of high - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing increasing by 8.6% and 9.1% respectively [2]. - In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities in China declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. Newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively from January to May [2]. - Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Hot News - Economic data: In May, the added - value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4%, and the fixed - asset investment from January to May increased by 3.7% year - on - year. High - tech manufacturing and digital product manufacturing showed strong growth [2]. - Housing prices: In May, housing prices in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, with new home prices in first - and second - tier cities down 0.2% and first - tier city second - hand home prices down 0.7%. The year - on - year decline continued to narrow. From January to May, newly - built commercial housing sales area and sales volume decreased by 2.9% and 3.8% respectively [2]. - International news: Iran may engage in dialogue with the US and Israel and may discuss a proposal to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non - Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons [2]. - Crude oil: OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast for 2025 at 1.3 million barrels per day and for 2026 at 1.28 million barrels per day. In May, OPEC +'s average daily crude oil production was 41.23 million barrels, an increase of 180,000 barrels from April [3]. - Lithium market: The price of the main lithium carbonate futures contract 2507 fell below 60,000 yuan per ton, leading to a slowdown in new lithium production capacity and some companies terminating projects. Lithium enterprises are now focusing on overseas expansion [3]. Key Concerns - Key commodities to focus on are urea, asphalt, soybean oil, hot - rolled coils, and Shanghai copper [4]. Night - session Performance No specific performance data is clearly described other than the range of possible changes in the provided charts. Sector Performance - Different commodity sectors had different performances, with precious metals having a 30.87% increase, non - metallic building materials 2.50%, and so on [7]. Performance of Major Asset Classes - Different asset classes had different daily, monthly, and annual returns. For example, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a monthly increase of 1.23%, and an annual increase of 1.10% [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global financial market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to geopolitical conflicts, supply - demand imbalances, and macro - policy adjustments. Geopolitical risks, especially the Israel - Iran conflict, are affecting the energy market, while macro - economic data and policy expectations are influencing various asset classes such as commodities, bonds, and foreign exchange [3][9][15]. - Different sectors show diverse trends. For example, the agricultural sector has mixed performance, the metal market has both rising and falling prices, and the energy market is under pressure from both supply - side disruptions and demand - side forecasts [2][4][6]. 3. Summary by Category Overnight Night - Market Trends - In the domestic futures market, some contracts like rapeseed oil, 20 - number rubber, and coking coal rose over 1%, while low - sulfur fuel oil, styrene, etc. had significant declines [2]. - Internationally, oil prices weakened, with the U.S. oil main contract down 2.06% at $71.48 per barrel and Brent crude down 1.68% at $72.98 per barrel [3]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, with COMEX gold down 1.40% and COMEX silver up 0.04% [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, with LME zinc up 1.41% and LME lead up 0.80% [5]. - International agricultural products also showed mixed trends, with U.S. soybeans up 0.02%, U.S. corn down 2.31%, etc. [6] Important Information Macro - Information - The Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (European route) increased by 4.6% as of June 16, 2025 [9]. - In May, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month, and 6.3% from January to May [9]. - In May, the housing prices of commercial residential buildings in large and medium - sized cities declined month - on - month, but the year - on - year decline narrowed [9]. - Israel attacked Iranian military headquarters on June 16, and Iran signaled a willingness to end hostilities and resume nuclear negotiations [10][11]. - The U.S. "Nimitz" aircraft carrier changed its route towards the Middle East [13]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of June 16, the inventory of styrene in Jiangsu ports decreased, and there is an expectation of further de - stocking [15]. - Citi analysts expect Brent crude to trade around $70 - 80 per barrel in the near term but maintain a long - term forecast of $60 - 65 per barrel [15]. - OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, and OPEC + increased production in May [15]. - Israel's largest refinery operator shut down all facilities due to an attack [16]. Metal Futures - In May 2025, the production and sales of pickups increased year - on - year [20]. - UBS recommends buying on dips and is optimistic about global stocks, defense, and gold, expecting the gold price to reach $3,500 per ounce by the end of 2025 [21]. Black - Series Futures - From June 9 - 15, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, with different trends in Australia and Brazil [23]. - The CML Ghana manganese mine is operating normally, and the manganese ore market is in a price - consolidation state [23]. - The arrival volume of iron ore at Chinese ports decreased from June 9 - 15, 2025 [23]. - From January to May, the real estate development investment, construction area, new construction area, and completion area all declined year - on - year [24]. Agricultural Futures - Recently, the inventory of imported soybeans in domestic oil mills increased, and the crushing volume is expected to rise [28]. - Malaysia's palm oil export volume increased from June 1 - 15, while the production decreased [29][30]. - In Brazil, the sugarcane crushing volume and sugar production in the central - southern region increased in the second half of May [31]. - As of June 16, the inventory of imported soybeans at Chinese ports decreased [32]. - The U.S. soybean export inspection volume decreased in the week ending June 12 [32]. - In May 2025, the U.S. soybean crushing volume and豆油 inventory changed compared to market expectations [33][35]. - In the second week of June 2025, Brazil's soybean and sugar shipments had different trends compared to last year [35]. - As of June 14, Brazil's soybean harvest rate reached 100% [36]. - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean's good - rate and sowing rate were lower than expected [36]. Financial Market Commodities - International oil prices weakened, and Western Oil expects prices to fall if the Israel - Iran conflict remains unchanged [3][41]. - International precious metal futures had mixed results, and investors are seeking safe - haven assets due to geopolitical risks [4]. - London base metals mostly rose, and their prices are affected by macro - economic expectations and demand [5]. - OPEC maintained its crude oil demand growth forecasts, and OPEC + increased production in May [41]. - Some shipping companies suspended services for Middle - East routes, raising concerns about energy exports [41]. - The price of lithium carbonate futures dropped, affecting the downstream market, and lithium enterprises are focusing on overseas markets [42]. Bonds - The domestic bond market was mostly volatile on Monday, with some bond yields rising and falling, and the central bank conducted reverse - repurchase operations [43]. - The Israeli - Iranian conflict may have a long - term impact on the 10 - year U.S. Treasury bonds, and U.S. bond yields rose [43][46]. - The Japanese central bank is expected to maintain the benchmark interest rate and may slow down the pace of reducing bond purchases [46]. - European bond yields generally fell as traders increased bets on currency easing by the European Central Bank [46]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar rose slightly on Monday, while the central parity rate was depreciated [47]. - The RMB exchange - rate index set new lows in different currency baskets in the week ending June 13 [47]. - The South Korean won's trend will continue to be affected by the RMB [47]. - The U.S. dollar index rose slightly, and non - U.S. currencies mostly rose [48]. Upcoming Events - There are important economic data releases such as Spain's Q1 labor cost, Germany's June ZEW economic sentiment index, etc. [52]. - There are also significant events including China's central - bank open - market operations, Japan's central - bank monetary - policy press conference, and IEA's monthly oil - market report [54].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The financial data in May is reasonably matched with the real - economy operation. The growth rates of social financing scale, M2, and RMB loans are significantly higher than the nominal GDP growth rate, and the support for the real economy remains stable. Fiscal and industrial policies are more proactive, forming a stronger synergy with monetary policy to promote the continuous recovery of the economy [2]. - The CSRC has announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)", which will be implemented from October 9, 2025. The futures exchange will implement key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - Due to the complex international situation and large market fluctuations, the SHFE has reminded relevant units to take measures to prompt investors to prevent risks and invest rationally [2]. - The nuclear talks between Iran and the US that were originally scheduled to be held in Oman have been indefinitely postponed [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Hot News - **Financial Data**: In May, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 8.7%, the year - on - year growth rate of M2 balance was 7.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M1 balance was 2.3%. In the first five months, the incremental social financing scale was 18.63 trillion yuan, 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year, and RMB loans increased by 10.68 trillion yuan [2]. - **Futures Regulations**: The CSRC announced the "Regulations on the Administration of Programmed Trading in the Futures Market (Trial)" to be implemented on October 9, 2025, with key management of high - frequency trading [2]. - **Market Risk Warning**: The SHFE reminded relevant units to prompt investors to prevent risks due to complex international situations and large market fluctuations [2]. - **Steel Mill Data**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.41%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.36 percentage points from last year; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.58%, a decrease of 0.07 percentage points from last week and an increase of 1.05 percentage points from last year; the steel mill profitability rate was 58.44%, a decrease of 0.43 percentage points from last week and an increase of 8.66 percentage points from last year; the daily average pig iron output was 241.61 tons, a decrease of 0.19 tons from last week [3]. - **International Event**: Iran's nuclear talks with the US have been indefinitely postponed after Israel's air strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and military bases [3]. Key Focus - **Focus Commodities**: Urea, crude oil, rebar, lithium carbonate, and PVC [4]. Night - Session Performance - **Sector Performance**: Non - metallic building materials increased by 2.51%, precious metals by 30.86%, energy by 2.86%, chemicals by 12.93%, grains by 1.40%, agricultural and sideline products by 2.56%, oilseeds and oils by 11.49%, soft commodities by 2.70%, non - ferrous metals by 19.66%, and coal - coking - steel - ore by 13.03% [4][5]. Major Asset Performance | Asset Category | Name | Daily Return (%) | Monthly Return (%) | Year - to - Date Return (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Equity | Shanghai Composite Index | - 0.75 | 0.88 | 0.75 | | | SSE 50 | - 0.55 | - 0.08 | - 0.31 | | | CSI 300 | - 0.72 | 0.62 | - 1.80 | | | CSI 500 | - 1.03 | 1.22 | 0.25 | | | S&P 500 | - 1.13 | 1.10 | 1.62 | | | Hang Seng Index | - 0.59 | 2.59 | 19.11 | | | German DAX | - 1.07 | - 2.01 | 18.12 | | | Nikkei 225 | - 0.89 | - 0.34 | - 5.16 | | | UK FTSE 100 | - 0.39 | 0.89 | 8.29 | | Fixed - Income | 10 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.02 | 0.27 | 0.09 | | | 5 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.04 | 0.15 | - 0.34 | | | 2 - year Treasury Bond Futures | 0.03 | 0.07 | - 0.50 | | Commodity | CRB Commodity Index | 0.00 | 4.25 | 2.04 | | | WTI Crude Oil | 8.39 | 21.44 | 2.54 | | | London Spot Gold | 1.40 | 4.40 | 30.84 | | | LME Copper | - 0.56 | 1.58 | 9.86 | | | Wind Commodity Index | 1.40 | 2.65 | 18.08 | | Other | US Dollar Index | 0.29 | - 1.30 | - 9.53 | | | CBOE Volatility Index | 15.54 | 12.12 | 20.00 | [7]

冠通期货 铜周度策略展望 冠通期货研究咨询部 王静 | 品种 | 交易逻辑 | 多空观点 | 操作建议 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 本周沪铜价格先抑后扬，价格重心下移，宏观方面，美国5月份CPI、PPI增长均不及市场预期，通胀压力放缓，美联储降息预期再度升高， | | | | | 周五以色列对伊朗核设施和军事设施袭击，导致全球油价飙升可能导致全球通胀水平上升，可能会促使美联储降息预期下降，美国就业数 | | | | | 据并不乐观，叠加目前中美贸易谈判尚无明确信号，市场情绪偏向于谨慎。基本面方面，供给端精铜矿港口库存本期有增加，但国内冶炼 | | | | | 费依然没有拐点的信号，截至2025年6月13日，现货粗炼费为-43.19美元/干吨，现货精炼费为-4.40美分/磅。虽目前冶炼厂暂无减产计划 | | | | | 但依然面临减量风险，支撑铜价底部空间。但目前为止，铜产量依然高位运行，尚未受到偏紧预期的影响，今年以来精炼铜产量一直处于 | | | | 沪铜 | 历年同期高位值状态。需求端，截至2025年4月，电解铜表观消费128.27万吨，相比上月涨跌-8.97万吨，涨跌 ...

资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/06/16 地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层 （100020） 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国内期货主力合约涨跌互现。SC 原油涨超 6%，棕榈油涨超 3%，豆油涨超 2%， 菜油、焦煤、燃料油、液化石油气（LPG）涨超 1%；跌幅方面，烧碱、20 号胶、 乙二醇（EG）跌超 1%。 2. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 1.48%报 3452.60 美元/盎司， 周涨 3.17%。COMEX 白银期货涨 0.21%报 36.37 美元/盎司，周涨 0.64%。 3. 国际油价大幅走高，美油主力合约涨 7.55%报 73.18 美元/桶，周涨 13.32%； 布油主力合约涨 7.5%报 74.56 美元/桶，周涨 12.17%。 4. 伦敦基本金属收盘多数下跌，LME 期铜跌 0.56%报 9647.5 美元/吨，周跌 0.47%；LME 期锌跌 0.61%报 2626.5 美元/吨，周跌 1.48%。 5. 国际农产品多数上涨，美大豆涨 2.52%，美玉米涨 1.43%，美豆油涨 6.30%， 美豆粕跌 1.09%，美小麦涨 3 ...

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 冠通每日交易策略 制作日期：2025 年 6 月 13 日 热点品种 原油： 欧佩克+同意 7 月份将石油产量提高 41.1 万桶/日，为连续第三个月增产，此次 增产与 5 月和 6 月的增产幅度相当。欧佩克+八个成员国将于 7 月 6 日举行下一 次会议，决定 8 月产量政策。据知情人士透露，沙特希望欧佩克+在未来几个月 继续加速石油增产，沙特将 7 月阿拉伯轻质原油对亚洲的官方售价下调 20 美分 /桶，原油供给压力仍大。不过 OPEC+产量增长不及预期，近日加拿大阿尔伯塔省 的野火已经导致该省近 35 万桶重质原油日产量停产，美伊核协议谈判陷入僵局， 美国继续加大对伊朗的制裁，特朗普表示对达成伊核协议的信心减弱，美方授权 美军家属可自愿撤离中东，缩减在伊拉克的美国使团规模，伊朗防长表示如果核 谈判失败并与美国冲突，伊朗将打击该地区的美军基地。以色列开始袭击伊朗， 中东地缘风险急剧升温，有报道称伊朗高级议员表示与美国的会谈将不会举行。 美国石油钻井数量下降幅度较大，美国原油产量预期下降，原 ...