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铁矿石库存周度数据-20251226
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 05:08
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2) Core Viewpoints - No information provided 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Inventory Data - **Port Total Inventory**: The current period's port total inventory is 15,858.66, showing an increase of 346.03 compared to the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Port Clearance Volume**: The current daily average port clearance volume is 315.06, with a week - on - week increase of 1.61 [1] - **Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory**: The current inventory of imported ore in steel mills is 8,860.19, rising by 136.24 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Imported Ore Daily Consumption**: The current daily consumption of imported ore in steel mills is 280.04, a decrease of 0.52 compared to the previous period [1] - **Arrival Volume**: The current arrival volume is 2,646.7, showing a decrease of 76.70 from the previous period [1] - **Domestic Iron Ore Concentrate Production**: The current production of domestic iron ore concentrate is 37.1, with a decrease of 0.61 compared to the previous period [1] - **Daily Average Hot Metal Production**: The current daily average hot metal production is 226.58, an increase of 0.03 from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Starting Rate**: The current starting rate of steel mills is 78.32%, a decrease of 0.15 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Capacity Utilization Rate**: The current capacity utilization rate is 84.94%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points from the previous period [1] - **Steel Mills' Profit Rate**: The current profit rate of steel mills is 37.23%, a decrease of 2.00 percentage points from the previous period [1] Inventory by Ore Type - **Coarse Ore**: The current inventory of coarse ore is 12,006.4, showing an increase of 206.83 compared to the previous period [1] - **Lump Ore**: The current inventory of lump ore is 2,144.66, with an increase of 76.19 from the previous period [1] - **Pellets**: The current inventory of pellets is 351.56, an increase of 30.92 compared to the previous period [1] - **Concentrate**: The current inventory of concentrate is 1,356.04, rising by 32.09 from the previous period [1] - **Trading Ore**: The current inventory of trading ore is 10,367.61, an increase of 269.95 compared to the previous period [1] - **Brazilian Ore**: The current inventory of Brazilian ore is 5,669.56, a decrease of 125.5 from the previous period [1] - **Australian Ore**: The current inventory of Australian ore is 6,941.26, an increase of 268.65 compared to the previous period [1]
冠通期货资讯早间报-20251226
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:46
Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - Most domestic futures main contracts rose at the 23:00 close, with fuel oil and rapeseed meal up nearly 2%, and PX and PTA up over 1.5%. Jiao coal, coke, LPG, and glass fell over 1% [5]. - At the 1:00 close, Shanghai copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, tin, and international copper main contracts rose, while the alumina main contract fell [5]. - At the 2:30 close, Shanghai gold, silver, and SC crude oil main contracts rose [6]. 2. Important News Macro News - China has lodged solemn representations with the US over its plan to impose 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products [9]. - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a good call with US representatives, emphasizing efforts to end the conflict [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - As of December 25, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased slightly, while domestic soda ash manufacturers' inventory decreased [11]. - Russia's plan to produce 100 million tons of LNG annually has been postponed due to sanctions [11]. - Iraq has lost power - generation capacity due to the interruption of Iranian natural - gas supply [11]. - China will take measures to ensure the supply and price stability of fertilizers [13]. Metal Futures - The Guangzhou Futures Exchange has adjusted trading rules for platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures contracts [15][16]. - Tianqi Lithium will change its spot - trading settlement price starting from January 1, 2026 [16]. - Wanrun New Energy will conduct production - line maintenance, reducing its lithium iron phosphate output [16]. - Four leading silicon - wafer companies have significantly raised their quotes [17][35]. - CSPT decided not to set a reference price for spot copper concentrate processing fees in Q1 2026 [17]. Black - Series Futures - The Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the daily price limit for coke and coking coal futures contracts [19]. - China will strengthen the construction of infrastructure and energy reserves [19]. - The average profit per ton of independent coking plants varies by region [19]. - The output, inventory, and demand of rebar have changed in the week of December 25 [20]. - Coal - mine production in Zhaotong, Yunnan, has been temporarily suspended [22]. Agricultural Futures - Malaysia's palm - oil exports from December 1 - 25 increased by 1.6% compared to the same period last month [24]. - Sugar - mill operations and inventory in Guangxi have changed [24]. - Argentina's 2025/26 corn production is expected to be slightly lower due to drought risks [24]. 3. Financial Markets Financial - A - shares continued to rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.47% and achieving a 7 - day winning streak [26]. - A - share listed companies' private placements have been active this year [28]. - The net inflow of the CSI A500ETF in December has been significant [29]. - Most private multi - asset strategy products have achieved positive returns this year [29]. - Analysts are optimistic about the A - share market in 2026 [29]. - The IPO application of Dapu Micro has been approved [31]. Industry - China has cracked down on financial "black - gray industries" [32]. - New regulations have been issued for the information disclosure of bank and insurance asset - management products [32]. - China will regulate the e - cigarette market [32]. - The government will strengthen the supervision of entrusted food production [32]. - Many game version numbers have been approved in December [33]. - Silicon - wafer prices have increased [35]. - China has made a breakthrough in the super - high - speed maglev field [35]. - Mobile phone shipments in China have increased [35]. - Shanghai will support the construction of the G60 Science and Technology Innovation Corridor [35]. Overseas - Israel may have another military conflict with Iran [36]. - Hungary's Prime Minister believes the root of the Russia - Ukraine conflict lies in the decline of Western Europe [36]. - Japan's 2026 fiscal - year initial budget has reached a record high [36]. - Japan has raised its economic forecast for the 2025 fiscal year [38]. - The Bank of Japan may raise interest rates [39]. - The Bank of Korea may cut interest rates in 2026 [40]. International Stock Markets - Japanese stocks rose slightly, while Vietnamese stocks tumbled [41]. - Morgan Stanley warns of three potential "surprises" in the US stock market in 2026 [41]. Commodities - Most domestic commodity futures closed higher, with new - energy materials leading the gains [42]. - The trading rules of platinum, palladium, and polysilicon futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange will be adjusted [42]. - Russia's oil production is expected to increase slightly in 2026 [42]. Bonds - China's bond market continued to fluctuate narrowly, and Japanese 2 - year bond auctions were weak [43]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose on Thursday [45]. 4. Upcoming Events - The People's Bank of China has 562 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing at 09:20 [47]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will hold a press conference at 10:30 [47]. - The 2025 Embodied Intelligence Development Frontier Conference and the 2025 Greater Bay Area Digital Chain Ecosystem Conference will be held on December 26 [47].
早盘速递-20251226
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-26 02:31
Hot News - China has lodged solemn representations with the US regarding the latter's imposition of Section 301 tariffs on some Chinese semiconductor products [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky had a good phone call with US President Trump's envoy and son - in - law, emphasizing efforts to end the conflict [2] - China's National Development and Reform Commission aims to strengthen coal supply and strategic reserves of coal - made oil and gas [2] - Iraq has lost about 4,500 megawatts of power - generation capacity due to the suspension of Iranian natural - gas supply [2] - China's relevant departments held a fertilizer supply - guarantee meeting, with PetroChina and Sinopec to sell sulfur at a flat price to key phosphate - fertilizer producers [3] Plate Performance - Key sectors to watch: Silver, Shanghai copper, coke, Shanghai nickel, PVC [4] - Night - session performance of commodity futures: Non - metallic building materials rose 2.20%, precious metals 34.70%, oilseeds 7.74%, soft commodities 3.12%, non - ferrous metals 24.89%, coal - coking - steel - ore 10.21%, energy 2.23%, chemicals 10.35%, grains 1.18%, and agricultural and sideline products 3.39% [4] Asset Performance Equity - Shanghai Composite Index: daily increase of 0.47%, monthly increase of 1.83%, annual increase of 18.14% - S&P 500: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 1.21%, annual increase of 17.86% - Hang Seng Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 0.15%, annual increase of 28.71% [6] Fixed - income - 10 - year Treasury bond futures: daily decrease of 0.02%, monthly increase of 0.24%, annual decrease of 0.67% - 5 - year Treasury bond futures: daily decrease of 0.03%, monthly increase of 0.23%, annual decrease of 0.52% [6] Commodity - CRB Commodity Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 0.02%, annual increase of 1.58% - WTI crude oil: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 0.17%, annual decrease of 18.66% - London spot gold: daily unchanged, monthly increase of 6.18%, annual increase of 70.70% [6] Other - US Dollar Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 1.49%, annual decrease of 9.70% - CBOE Volatility Index: daily unchanged, monthly decrease of 17.61%, annual decrease of 22.36% [6]
尿素日度数据图表-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 13:58
本期 前值 涨跌 河北 1730 1730 0 河南 1710 1710 0 山东 1730 1730 0 山西 1580 1580 0 江苏 1720 1720 0 安徽 1720 1710 10 黑龙江 1760 1760 0 内蒙古 1770 1770 0 河北东光 1720 1720 0 山东华鲁 1710 1690 20 江苏灵谷 1750 1750 0 安徽昊源 1690 1680 10 山东05基差 -1 32 -33 山东01基差 15 48 -33 河北05基差 9 32 -23 河北01基差 25 48 -23 1-5价差 62 49 13 5-9价差 16 16 0 仓单数量(张) 仓单数量合计 10750 10432 318 中东FOB 378.5 378.5 0 美湾FOB 368.5 368.5 0 埃及FOB 435 435 0 波罗的海FOB 365 365 0 巴西CFR 402.5 402.5 0 注:数据来源于Wind,钢联数据,冠通研究整理 冠通期货 研究咨询部 王静 仓单 免责声明:本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料,我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的 ...
螺纹日报:震荡整理-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The current market is in a volatile situation with supply support and weak demand in the off - season. Supply is at a relatively low level but has started to rise in the past two weeks, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand is showing off - season characteristics with a decline. It is necessary to observe whether the winter storage market can be launched in January. Inventory destocking has slowed down, but the overall inventory level is acceptable. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The recent market has been volatile after a low - level rebound, indicating that the current supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: On Thursday, the position of the rebar main contract decreased by 15,590 lots. The trading volume continued to decline compared with the previous trading day. It fluctuated within the day, with a minimum of 3,123 yuan/ton, a maximum of 3,144 yuan/ton, and closed at 3,127 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The trading volume was 502,388 lots [1]. - Spot price: The spot price of HRB400E 20mm rebar in the mainstream region was 3,320 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared with the previous trading day [1]. - Basis: The futures price was at a discount of 193 yuan/ton to the spot price, which continued to support the futures price to some extent [1]. Fundamental Data Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: As of the week of December 25, rebar production increased by 27,100 tons week - on - week to 1.8439 million tons, rising for two consecutive weeks. It was 319,100 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, and the production was still at a near - 4 - year low. As of December 18, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.47%, down 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and 1.16% lower than last year. The steel mill profitability rate was 35.93%, unchanged from last week. The daily average hot metal output decreased by 26,500 tons to 22.655 million tons, 28,600 tons lower than last year. This week's production continued to rise slightly, which would weaken price support to some extent [2]. - Demand side: Terminal demand was weak. The average daily trading volume of building materials nationwide remained at 90,000 - 100,000 tons, at a near - five - year low for the same period. As of the week of December 25, the apparent consumption decreased by 59,600 tons week - on - week to 2.0268 million tons, 169,000 tons lower year - on - year on the Gregorian calendar, at a near - 4 - year low. Demand showed regional differences. Construction in the north stopped due to cold weather, while in the south, existing projects were rushing to complete, with good demand resilience. The apparent demand declined due to the off - season, and it was necessary to pay attention to whether winter storage could boost demand in January [2]. - Inventory side: Inventory continued to decline. As of the week of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 182,900 tons week - on - week to 4.3425 million tons, declining for 8 consecutive weeks, but still 345,100 tons higher year - on - year. Among them, the social inventory was 2.9419 million tons, down 188,100 tons week - on - week with a slowdown in destocking, and the steel mill inventory was 1.4006 million tons, slightly increasing by 5,200 tons. The destocking of social inventory showed current demand resilience. Although the inventory destocking rate slowed down this week, the overall inventory pressure was still controllable [3]. Macro - aspect - The Central Economic Work Conference proposed to flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to maintain sufficient liquidity and smooth the monetary - policy transmission mechanism. It focused on stabilizing the real - estate market, adjusting policies according to cities to control new supply, destock, and optimize supply, and encouraging the acquisition of existing commercial housing for affordable housing. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points in December as expected. The macro - outlook was moderately positive. The 14th Five - Year Plan provided a transformation path for the steel industry, focusing on "controlling production capacity, optimizing structure, promoting transformation, and improving quality." Macro - economically, incremental demand was relatively limited, but the loose cycle provided some support, and the upper limit of demand determined the pressure [3]. Cost - aspect - The futures of iron ore and coking coal stabilized, enhancing cost support [4]. Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: Low supply, continuous inventory destocking, expectations of policy easing, a large futures discount providing bottom - support, strong iron ore in the furnace charge, and stable coking coal enhancing cost support [5]. - Bearish factors: Seasonal weakening of terminal demand, more construction site closures in the north, cautious winter - storage willingness of traders, and weak real - estate data [5]. Short - term View Summary - The current market is in a volatile situation. Supply is at a relatively low level but has increased recently, and there are expectations of steel mill复产 in January. Demand shows off - season characteristics. The inventory destocking rate has slowed down, and the overall inventory level is okay. The macro - outlook is relatively loose, but real - estate regulation restricts demand space. The market has been volatile recently, indicating a non - prominent supply - demand contradiction. It is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term [6].
玻璃日报:短期震荡-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:46
Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating Core View of the Report - In the short term, the price of glass may maintain a volatile trend due to factors such as potential production line cold repairs improving the supply - demand situation, but weak terminal demand and inventory accumulation [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures market: The glass futures main contract opened higher and closed lower, with a weaker intraday trend. The trading volume decreased by 412,000 lots compared to the previous day, and the open interest decreased by 19,672 lots. The intraday high was 1,059, the low was 1,042, and the closing price was 1,047, up 4 yuan/ton or 0.38% from the previous day's settlement price [1] - Spot market: In the North China market, the trading was average, and some prices declined with increased market wait - and - see sentiment; in the Central China market, the prices were stable with some enterprises' quotes loosening; in the East China market, the procurement was rational with a large proportion of rigid demand and stable prices; in the South China market, the transactions were good, and producers mostly maintained stable prices; in the Southwest market, the transactions slightly improved, while in the Northwest and Northeast markets, the demand was weak, the shipment speed slowed down, and the average price decreased [1] - Basis: The spot price in North China was 1,010, and the basis was - 37 yuan/ton [1] Fundamental Data - Supply: As of December 25, the daily average output of national float glass was 154,500 tons, a decrease of 0.39% from the 18th. The national float glass production was 1.084 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.06%. The industry average operating rate was 73.89%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1%; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.42%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. A float glass production line in Guangdong was shut down for cold repair yesterday, with a designed daily capacity of 900 tons, reigniting the expectation of production line cold repairs [2] - Inventory: The total inventory of sample enterprises was 58.623 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 65,000 weight boxes or 0.11%, and a year - on - year increase of 29.63%. The inventory days were 26.5 days, the same as the previous period [2] - Demand: From January to November, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 604.32 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.0%. From January to November, the funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 851.45 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9%. The average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises were 9.7 days, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. The deep - processing orders in the northern region continued to decline month - on - month, the overall situation in the central and eastern regions changed little, the orders in South China still increased moderately month - on - month, and there were both increases and decreases in the Southwest region, with the average order days slightly declining month - on - month [2] - Profit: As of December 25, according to Longzhong Information statistics, the profit of natural - gas - fired production was - 186.4 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 5 yuan/ton), the profit of petroleum - coke - fired production was - 7.2 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 7.14 yuan/ton), and the profit of coal - gas - fired production was - 21.88 yuan/ton (a month - on - month decrease of 14.26 yuan/ton) [3] Main Logic Summary - Supply: Production lines using natural gas as fuel have long - term losses, and those using coal and petroleum coke are also in a loss state, which may accelerate the production capacity clearance of some enterprises. Under the influence of factors such as the expectation of macro - level reserve requirement ratio cuts, anti - involution sentiment, and the expectation of supply decline, there may be short - term support [4] - Demand: The real estate development investment and the funds in place continue to decline year - on - year, the completion and new construction are weak, and the real estate demand continues to weaken. The increasing inventory pressure and weak enterprise order volume put pressure on the spot price [4] - Outlook: Although the cold repair of production lines may improve the supply - demand pattern in the short term, the terminal is weak, the inventory accumulates, and there is insufficient upward driving force. The short - term price may maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to changes in macro - policies and the situation of production line cold repairs [4]
焦炭日报:短期延续偏强运行-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:46
【冠通期货研究报告】 焦炭日报:短期延续偏强运行 发布日期:2025 年 12 月 25 日 【行情分析】 焦炭库存,截至 12 月 19 日独立焦企焦炭库存增加 3.78 万吨 91.1 万吨,钢 厂焦炭库存则下降 1.55 万吨至 633.73 万吨,因港口焦炭库存减少 9.15 万吨, 焦炭综合库存下降 0.71%至 964.28 万吨,同比增幅回落至 4.93%。 现货市场:港口现货市场持稳运行,日照港准一级冶金焦出库 1460;现货 市场交投氛围一般,两港库存较上一个交易日略有增加。 利润方面,全国 30 家独立焦化厂平均盈利 16 元/吨;山西准一级焦平均盈 利 35 元/吨,山东准一级焦平均盈利 65 元/吨,内蒙二级焦平均盈利-23 元/吨, 河北准一级焦平均盈利 66 元/吨。 下游需求,247 家钢厂盈利率较上周持平,高炉开工率环比下降 0.16%至 78.47%,高炉炼铁产能利用率减少 0.99%至 84.93%,日均铁水产量较上周减少 2.65 万吨至 226.55 万吨,为今年 2 月份以来最低值,同比去年减少 2.86 万吨。 上游焦煤:供应方面,煤矿炼焦煤库存延续累库,港口进口炼 ...
纯碱日报:短期震荡-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:45
发布日期:2025 年 12 月 25 日 一、市场行情回顾 【冠通期货研究报告】 纯碱日报:短期震荡 1,期货市场:纯碱主力日内震荡,收十字星。成交量较昨日减 12.3 万手, 持仓量较昨日减 4142 手;日内最高 1195,最低 1174,收盘 1184,(较昨日结 算价)涨 6 元/吨,涨幅 0.51%。 2,现货市场:价格成交重心下移。企业装置大稳小动,个别产量提升,供 应有所增加。企业发货前期订单为主,库存震荡下行。下游需求表现一般,观望 情绪浓郁,低价刚需补库。 3,基差:华北重碱现货价格 1300,基差 116 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 进出口方面,11 月份国内纯碱出口量 18.94 万吨,环比-2.51 万吨。1-11 月累计出口量 196.12 万吨,较去年同期增加 92.25 万吨。11 月份国内纯碱进口 量在 0.025 万吨。1-11 月累计进口量为 2.17 万吨,较去年同期减少 94.67 万吨, 跌幅 97.76%。11 月份国内纯碱净出口 18.92 万吨;1-11 月累计净出口 193.95 万吨。 三、主要逻辑总结 供应方面,截止 12 月 25 日,国内纯碱产量 71 ...
甲醇日报:伊朗装置反复扰动市场情绪-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:45
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The futures market shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken through, and the pressure remains. It is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the previous low support below, and the upside space is limited with weakening rebound sentiment [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Analysis - As of December 24, 2025, the total methanol port inventory in China was 1412,500 tons, an increase of 193,700 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory in East China increased by 207,700 tons, while that in South China decreased by 14,000 tons. The significant inventory build - up in ports this week was mainly in Jiangsu, with 403,300 tons of visible foreign vessels recorded during the period. The weakening of the inland market led to a significant decline in提货 in the Yangtze River area of Jiangsu, contributing to a large - scale inventory build - up. In South China, the inventory in Guangdong decreased, while that in Fujian increased [1] - Due to gas restrictions in Iran, the operating rate decreased and loading slowed down, alleviating import pressure to some extent. Considering the loading data in November and some delayed arrivals, the import volume from December 2025 to January 2026 is estimated to be between 1.4 and 1.6 million tons [1] Macroeconomic Analysis - Six special working groups led by multiple departments have carried out on - the - spot inspections in 12 key regions across the country to investigate and seal up abandoned mine shafts and crack down on illegal mining [2] - The Ministry of Commerce held a meeting stating that it is necessary to boost consumption vigorously [2] - China Merchants Energy Shipping Co., Ltd. announced that the world's first methanol dual - fuel VLCC tanker "Kaituo" was delivered in Dalian on December 22, 2025 [2] Futures and Spot Market Analysis - The futures market shows a narrow - range intraday oscillation. The pressure of the 40 - day moving average at the daily - line level has not been effectively broken through, and the pressure remains. It is difficult to significantly reduce inventory before the Spring Festival. The repeated situation of Iranian plants has a great impact on market sentiment. Attention should be paid to the previous low support below, and the upside space is limited with weakening rebound sentiment [4]
芳烃日报:产业链边际虽有改善,但淡季存需求疲软预期-20251225
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2025-12-25 11:45
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The marginal improvement in the aromatics industry chain is observed, but there are expectations of weak demand during the off - season [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Analysis Pure Benzene - Production profits: Caprolactam -350 yuan/ton (-40), phenol - acetone -927 yuan/ton (+0), aniline 789 yuan/ton (+178), adipic acid -1018 yuan/ton (-11) [1] - Operating rates: Caprolactam 69.20% (-5.37%), phenol 76.00% (-3.50%), aniline 61.35% (-14.59%), adipic acid 59.60% (+0.40%) [1] - Due to tariff issues, South Korea's exports of pure benzene to China increased, with concentrated arrivals of imports, leading to significant port inventory pressure. However, subsequent inventory accumulation will gradually slow down, and currently, there is a pattern of strong supply and weak demand [1] Styrene - From December 12th to 18th, China's total styrene factory output was 34.68 tons, a 2.38% increase from the previous period, and the factory capacity utilization rate was 69.13%, a 1.02% increase month - on - month [2] - The consumption of EPS, PS, and ABS downstream of styrene was 26.18 tons, a 3.89% decrease month - on - month [2] - Styrene factory inventory was 17.10 tons, a 4.23% decrease from the previous week. As of December 22nd, the inventory in East China's ports was 13.93 tons, a 3.41% increase from the previous week, and the inventory in South China's ports was 1.1 tons, a 26.67% decrease from the previous week [2] - As of December 17th, the non - integrated profit of styrene was -203 yuan/ton, and the integrated profit was 421.08 yuan/ton [2] - There were many styrene overhauls in the fourth quarter, and port inventory was depleted. However, according to industry past rules, there is a high possibility of seasonal inventory accumulation from January to March [2] Macroeconomic Analysis - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce issued the "Catalogue of Industries Encouraging Foreign Investment (2025 Edition)", guiding foreign investment in advanced manufacturing and modern services, which will come into effect on February 1st, 2026 [3] - In November, the country's total electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [3] Futures and Spot Market Analysis Pure Benzene - Pure benzene continued its overall volatile trend during the day, with significant upward pressure. Due to inventory pressure from concentrated imports, it still showed a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. It should be treated with a volatile mindset, and attention should be paid to the support near the previous low [4] Styrene - Styrene continued its rebound trend, closing up 1.67%. It initially broke through the 60 - day moving average on the daily line, but considering the seasonal inventory accumulation period in the first quarter of next year, the upward space is currently limited. Continue to observe the pressure of the 20 - day moving average on the weekly line, and the industry can pay attention to hedging opportunities [4]