【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：晨光微露 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 棉花：12 月 24 日，配额内（关税 1%）中等质量进口棉完税成本 12863 元/ 吨，比国产标准级棉花价格低 2408 元/吨,滑准税进口棉完税成本 13892 元/吨， 比国产棉价格低 1379 元/吨。全球棉花供需宽松，棉价震荡下跌，而国内已持续 上涨一个月，内外价差持续扩大。 现货宽松下，远月种植面积结构调整引发盘面出现一定反弹，而近月出口需 求转好，而供应压力最大阶段已经过去，这使得目前棉花市场稳中偏好，但是内 外棉价差扩大，后续关注进口棉是否会有增量，短期预估震荡偏强为主，上行空 间相对受限，中长期棉花存在供应端削减后的供需边际改善。 白糖：截至当前，广西 2025/26 榨季 73 家糖厂已全部开榨，同比减少 1 家； 日榨蔗能力约 59.2 万吨，同比减少 0.2 万吨。截至目前不完全统计，25/26 榨 季云南已开榨糖厂 35 家，同比增加 5 家；预计榨蔗能力 12.32 万吨/日，同比增 加 1.26 万吨/日。 外盘休市，内盘暂无参考标的下，全天白糖处于震荡中，国内供应端逐渐进 入压榨高峰，短期 ...

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for plastics in the near term due to new capacity additions and the exit of the agricultural film peak season. The L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Group 3 - Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. The overall sentiment of bulk commodities has improved, but the supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and some spot prices are weak [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6356 yuan/ton, the highest was 6446 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6390 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.63%. The position increased by 2047 lots to 542399 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price changes between - 50 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7790 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Report's Core View - PVC is expected to run in a volatile manner, with limited upside potential in the near term due to factors such as high inventory, weak downstream demand, and limited Indian market demand [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - The calcium carbide price in the upstream northwest region is stable. The PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. The downstream operating rate dropped by 3.5 percentage points, and downstream product orders are poor. In terms of exports, PVC increased sign - offs slightly last week by reducing prices, but the Indian market price is low with limited demand. The CFR India and CFR Southeast Asia prices decreased by $20/ton and $30/ton respectively. Social inventory decreased slightly but remains high. The real estate market is still in adjustment, and the improvement needs time. New production capacity has been added, and the market sentiment is boosted by the rebound of commodities such as coking coal, but the upward space of PVC is limited [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - The PVC2605 contract increased in positions and ran in a volatile manner, closing at 4,757 yuan/ton, up 0.34%, with an increase of 5,776 lots in open interest to 979,053 lots [2] - On December 25, the mainstream price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China rose to 4,455 yuan/ton. The futures closing price of the V2605 contract was 4,757 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 302 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking Supply - Affected by devices such as Ningbo Hanwha and Leshan Yongxiang, the PVC operating rate decreased by 1.07 percentage points to 78.36%, remaining at a moderately high level in recent years. New production capacities of Wanhua Chemical (500,000 tons/year), Tianjin Bohua (400,000 tons/year), Qingdao Gulf (200,000 tons/year), and Gansu Yaowang (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in the second half of the year, and Jiaxing Jiahua (300,000 tons/year) started trial production in December [4] Demand - The real estate market is still in adjustment. From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 785.91 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The sales area, sales volume, new construction area, construction area, and completion area all decreased year - on - year. As of the week of December 21, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased by 20.86% week - on - week but remained at the lowest level in recent years [5] Inventory - As of the week of December 18, PVC social inventory decreased by 0.25% week - on - week to 1.0566 million tons, 28.58% higher than the same period last year. The inventory decreased slightly but remained high [6]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned Core Viewpoints - PP is expected to have limited upside potential due to unchanged supply - demand patterns, shortened downstream order cycles, and weakening prices of some PP spot products [1] - The L - PP spread is expected to decline as new plastic production capacity comes on - stream and the peak season for agricultural films ends [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [1][4] - On December 25, the restart of maintenance units such as a single line of Liaoyang Petrochemical led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82.5%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 29% [1][4] - Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [1][4] - With an oversupply of crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. There is new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year from PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical, and the number of maintenance units has increased recently [1] - The downstream has entered the end of the peak season, orders in plastic weaving and other sectors continue to decline, the price of BOPP film has dropped again, and there is a lack of large - scale centralized procurement in the market, which has limited support for the market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The PP2605 contract fluctuated with reduced positions, closing at 6266 yuan/ton, up 0.79%, below the 20 - day moving average. The trading volume decreased by 3751 lots to 536,001 lots [2] - Spot: Most PP spot prices in various regions remained stable, with drawstring prices ranging from 5920 to 6280 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance units such as a single line of Liaoyang Petrochemical led to an increase in the PP enterprise operating rate to around 82.5%, a moderately low level, and the production ratio of standard grade drawstring rose to around 29% [4] - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PP operating rate dropped 0.19 percentage points to 53.80% week - on - week, at a relatively low level compared to the same period in previous years. The operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of PP, decreased 0.06 percentage points to 44.00% week - on - week, and orders continued to decline slightly, slightly lower than the same period last year [4] - Inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons week - on - week, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical inventory reduction accelerated, but the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level compared to the same period in recent years [4] Raw Material End - Brent crude oil's 03 contract rose to $62 per barrel, and the CFR propylene price in China remained unchanged at $740 per ton week - on - week [6]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report Today, Shanghai Copper opened high and closed low but rose during the day. The potential strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile and the zero long - term pricing of mining processing fees last week boosted market sentiment, leading to a continuous increase in copper prices. SMM data shows increased copper production. However, copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are cautious, while copper foil maintains a high - prosperity level. The CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in Q1 2026. Due to year - end capital chain tension and tax - related impacts, downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the spot discount has widened. Caution is advised regarding price corrections [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - The potential strike at Capstone Copper's Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile may start on December 29 if the new labor contract mediation fails. Last week, the zero long - term pricing of mining processing fees boosted market sentiment, resulting in consecutive days of rising copper prices. In November, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1031 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 11,500 tons (1.05%) and a year - on - year increase of 9.75%. From January to November, the cumulative production increased by 1.2894 million tons (11.76%). SMM expects December's electrolytic copper production to increase by 65,700 tons (5.96%) month - on - month and 6.69% year - on - year. Copper product profits are squeezed, and the production enthusiasm of copper plate and strip is weak. Copper tube enterprises are mainly in a wait - and - see mode, while copper foil maintains high - level prosperity. The CSPT decided not to set a reference figure for the spot copper concentrate processing fee in Q1 2026. Downstream procurement sentiment is weak, and the spot discount has widened [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Conditions] - Futures: Shanghai Copper opened high and closed low but rose during the day. - Spot: Today, the spot premium/discount in East China was - 330 yuan/ton, and in South China, it was - 180 yuan/ton. On December 24, 2025, the LME official price was $12,218/ton, and the spot premium was + $35/ton [4]. [Supply Side] - As of December 22, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 43.98 dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.58 cents/pound [8]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 59,100 tons, an increase of 6,861 tons from the previous period. As of December 22, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 98,800 tons, an increase of 100 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 157,000 tons, an increase of 825 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 471,600 short tons, an increase of 4,276 short tons from the previous period [11].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The hot-rolled coil is currently in a game between cost support and inventory pressure under the pattern of weak supply and demand. This week, the announced hot-rolled coil production has rebounded but remains at a relatively low level, and there may still be room for further production increases. The rebound in apparent demand shows the resilience of demand, but the subsequent demand increment is limited. The total inventory continues to decline, but the total volume remains at a high level. With the expectation of a relatively loose macro environment, attention should be paid to whether the manufacturing PMI can rise above the boom-bust line. In the future, attention should be paid to the winter storage market in January and the slope of production capacity recovery. Today's daily line closed in the negative territory, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情回顾 - Futures price: The trading volume of the main contract of hot-rolled coil futures on Thursday was 248,652 lots, a decrease compared to the previous trading day. The intraday low was 3,280 yuan, the high was 3,291 yuan, and it closed at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.03%. The open interest increased by 9,350 lots [1] - Spot price: The price of hot-rolled coils in the mainstream Shanghai area was reported at 3,280 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - Basis: The basis between futures and spot was 0 yuan, indicating a flat basis [2] Fundamental Data - Supply side: As of December 25, the weekly output of hot-rolled coils increased by 16,300 tons to 2.9354 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 136,000 tons. This week, the hot-rolled coil production rebounded after a significant decline last week and is currently near the lowest level of the year and at a low level in the past four years, which enhances price support [3] - Demand side: As of December 25, the weekly apparent consumption increased by 87,600 tons to 3.0704 million tons compared to the previous period. The year-on-year decrease was 22,900 tons. This week, the apparent demand rebounded, and the export rush market emerged, but the winter storage market in January still needs to be monitored [3] - Inventory side: As of December 25, the total inventory decreased by 135,000 tons to 3.7722 million tons compared to the previous week (the social inventory decreased by 106,000 tons, and the steel mill inventory decreased by 29,000 tons). The total inventory continued to decline, and the decline accelerated, indicating that the demand was resilient in late December, presumably due to enterprises rushing to export. However, the total inventory is at a high level in the past four years. In the future, the speed of continued inventory decline needs to be monitored [3] - Policy side: The new regulations on the export license management of steel products will cause short-term fluctuations in exports, increase supply, and put pressure on prices. In the long term, they will promote industrial upgrading, structural optimization, and competitiveness improvement. The Central Economic Work Conference held in December proposed a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, and listed the in-depth rectification of involutionary competition as a key task for 2026, which is beneficial to prices and industry profitability. Efforts will be made to stabilize the real estate market and expand domestic demand [3][4] - External macro: In the United States, the core CPI in November increased by 2.6% year-on-year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, lower than the market expectation of 3%. The overall CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than the expected 3.1% [4] Market Driving Factor Analysis - Bullish factors: The supply-side production has decreased significantly, there is an expectation of the start of winter storage demand, an export rush market, policy support ("14th Five-Year Plan", infrastructure investment), and the stabilization and strengthening of furnace materials such as iron ore and coking coal have enhanced cost support [5] - Bearish factors: The demand is seasonally weak, manufacturing orders are insufficient, and inventory accumulation suppresses prices [6]

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月25日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.2个百分点至27.6%，较去年同期低了0.9个百分点，仍处于 近年同期最低水平。据隆众资讯数据，12月份国内沥青预计排产215.8万吨，环比减少7.0万吨，减幅 为3.1%，同比减少34.4万吨，减幅为13.8%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青 开工环比下跌3个百分点至24%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华东地区主营炼厂间歇停产，加之价 格高位，其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少3.52%至24.45万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存 存货比环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。由于美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的 制裁措施，其中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和船只，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实 施全面封锁。委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计在数日后达到 最大储存上限。美国在委内瑞拉附近水域拦截第三艘油轮。市场担忧委内瑞拉重质原油的出口，影 响国内沥青的生产，委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度再次扩大。本周山东部分炼厂有转产渣油计划。北 方道 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 原油日报：原油震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月25日 【行情分析】 今日原油期货主力合约2602合约上涨0.02%至442.7元/吨，最低价在440.9元/吨，最高价在444.5 元/吨，持仓量减少1852至34826手。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 欧佩克+ 8个额外自愿减产的产油国重申明年一季度暂停增产。原油需求旺季结束，EIA数据显 示，美国原油库存去库幅度略预期，但成品油库存增幅超预期，整体油品库存增加。美国原油产量 小幅减少，但仍位于历史最高位附近。特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，仍在施压乌克兰。欧洲多国 及欧盟机构领导人发表联合声明称，将组建一支"多国部队"支持乌克兰。乌美双方均称新一轮和 平计划磋商取得建设性进展。俄罗斯原油受制裁而得到的风险溢价继续回落，欧美成品油裂解基差 高位持续回落。不过欧盟最新决定将针对俄罗斯的经济制裁再延长6个月，至2026年7月31日。俄罗 斯认为美国的和平计划最新提案缺乏关键条款，俄方希望作出修改。美国与委内瑞拉军事对峙继续 升级，美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施，特朗普下 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The international urea has relatively little impact on the domestic market, the daily production pressure has slightly eased, and there is still support from downstream demand. In the short term, the market is expected to be slightly stronger with fluctuations [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The futures market opened flat and trended higher, closing with gains after intraday fluctuations. The spot factory has a strong willingness to hold prices, but the downstream acceptance is average. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,630 to 1,710 yuan/ton, up about 10 yuan/ton. The daily production is 190,000 tons, and the pressure of supply remains. The downstream compound fertilizer factory's operating load has decreased, and the inventory reduction has increased. The winter storage market is expected to run stably, and may rebound after the environmental protection restrictions are lifted [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main urea 2605 contract opened at 1,732 yuan/ton, closed at 1,740 yuan/ton, up 0.46%. The trading volume was 196,387 lots (+9,020 lots). Among the top 20 positions, longs increased by 8,012 lots and shorts increased by 8,660 lots. The number of urea warehouse receipts on December 25, 2025, was 10,750, an increase of 318 from the previous trading day [2]. - Spot: The spot factory has a strong willingness to hold prices, but the downstream acceptance is average. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranges from 1,630 to 1,710 yuan/ton, up about 10 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis for the May contract was - 30 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [7]. - Supply: On December 25, 2025, the national daily urea production was 192,600 tons, an increase of 800 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 79.37% [10]. - Enterprise Inventory: As of December 24, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0689 million tons, a decrease of 110,800 tons from the previous week, a 9.39% decrease [11]. - Pre - sale Orders: As of December 24, 2025, the pre - sale order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.35 days, an increase of 0.11 days from the previous period, a 1.76% increase [11]. - Downstream Data: From December 20 to December 26, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 37.75%, a decrease of 1.62 percentage points from the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.07%, a decrease of 0.48 percentage points from the previous week [13].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲 6 号万通中心 D 座 20 层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 注:本报告资讯信息来源于万得资讯和金十数据，冠通研究整理编辑 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读免责声明。 分析师：王静，执业资格证号 F0235424/Z0000771。 免责声明： 本报告中的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司对这些信息的准确性和完整性不作任何保证。报告中的内容和 意见仅供参考，并不构成对所述品种买卖的出价或征价。我公司及其雇员对使用本报告及其内容所引发的 任何直接或间接损失概不负责。本报告仅向特定客户传送，版权归冠通期货所有。未经我公司书面许可， 任何机构和个人均不得以任何形式翻版，复制，引用或转载。如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期 货股份有限公司。 资讯早间报 发布日期： 2025/12/25 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货涨跌不一，COMEX 黄金期货收跌 0.01%报 4505.4 美元/盎司； COMEX 白银期货收涨 1.04%报 71.875 美元/盎司，继续刷新历史新高。 2. 国际油价涨跌不一，美油主力合约收涨 0.03%报 58.4 美元 ...