投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：宏观情绪降温后警惕回调风险 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏空； 菜油偏多 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但印尼5月减产去库对价格有支撑；（2）豆油供应充足；（3）菜籽库存历史低位，短期压榨偏少。 | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴配额提振国际油脂需求，主要利多棕榈油、菜油。 | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏空 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存被动累库；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | 宏观及政策 | 棕榈油偏多； 菜油中性偏 | （1）宏观情绪有所降温；（2）美国生柴政策或将改变全球油脂供需格局；（3）澳菜籽有望进入国内市场，利空菜油；（4）印尼有望明年实施B50。 | | | 空。 | | | 投资 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【天然橡胶周报（RU&NR)】 商品市场情绪过热，橡胶价格波动放大 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-07-28 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 天然橡胶:商品市场情绪过热，橡胶价格波动放大 资料来源：Wind、钢联、国贸期货研究院 02 PART TWO 期货及现货行情回顾 行情回顾：宏观及边境冲突事件扰动，橡胶延续反弹上涨 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | （1）国内产区：本周云南产区受降雨影响，胶水上量缓慢，原料供应偏紧支撑收购价格维持坚挺。海南产区受台风"韦帕"影响，强降雨天气扰动原料生 产释放，随着周尾天气出现好转，割胶作业陆续恢复，全岛日收胶量大致在4500吨上下，但整体胶水产量仍不及往年同期水平。（2）泰国产区：本周泰 | | 供给 | 偏多 | | | | | 国部分地区仍有强降雨干扰，影响割胶工作， ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【尿素周报（UR)】 宏观政策刺激尿素大涨，但警惕情绪反转 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 尿素:宏观政策刺激尿素大涨，但警惕情绪反转 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）尿素产量135.47万吨，较上周减少1.40吨，环比跌1.02%；周均日产19.35万吨，较上周减少0.20万吨。周期内山东、河南等省产量有一定增加，产量 有减少的省份是陕西、山西、安徽等。2、开工率：尿素产能利用率83.59%，环比跌0.87%。周期内环比开工上涨的省份在山东、河南等，环比开工下降的 | | | | 省份在陕西、吉林、安徽等。 | | | | （1）山东临沂复合肥样本生产企业尿素需求量820吨，较上周增加20吨，环比涨2.50%。目前复合肥成品出货仍一般化，开工小幅提升中，尿素采购方面 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 逢低持续进行中。（2）尿素企业预收订单天数5.94日，较上周期减少0.12日，环比减少1.98%。本周期国内尿素行情继续偏弱震荡，国内需求走弱，但又 有宏观政策利好，市场情绪翻转较 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on crude oil is bearish, indicating that the price center will move down in the medium to long term [3]. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market news is scarce, and oil prices maintain a volatile performance. The expectation of the summer consumption peak season is gradually weakening, and in the medium to long term, the supply - demand situation still shows a loosening trend, leading to a downward shift in the price center [3][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Weekly Data Changes Review - **Price Changes**: SC crude oil decreased by 3.59% to 512.9 yuan/barrel, Brent crude oil dropped by 2.35% to 67.6 dollars/barrel, and WTI crude oil fell by 1.45% to 65.07 dollars/barrel [3][4]. - **Inventory Changes**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 316.9 million barrels to 419 million barrels, with a decline of 0.75%. Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 455,000 barrels [3]. - **Futures Warehouse Receipt Changes**: FU high - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts increased by 27.36% to 110,980 tons [4]. 3.2 Futures Market Data - **Market Performance**: This week, oil prices closed lower, reaching a three - week low. The market is worried about the weakening US economy, and the expectation of the summer consumption peak season is cooling. OPEC+ may increase production at the next meeting, resulting in a generally weak oil price performance [6]. - **Spread Analysis**: The monthly spread weakened, while the internal - external spread remained stable. The forward curve showed a relatively strong performance at the near - end. The crack spreads of gasoline and diesel declined, while the crack spread of jet fuel remained stable [9][21][29]. 3.3 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Supply Side** - **OPEC and Non - OPEC Countries**: In June 2025, OPEC and Non - OPEC DoC countries' crude oil production increased compared to May [59]. - **US Production**: As of the week ending July 18, US domestic crude oil production decreased by 1.02 million barrels to 13.273 million barrels per day, while crude oil exports increased by 337,000 barrels per day to 3.855 million barrels per day [84]. - **Demand Side** - **US Demand**: The refinery operating rate rose by 1.60% to 95.50%, and the implied demand for gasoline and distillates increased [122]. - **China Demand**: The capacity utilization rate of independent refineries in China decreased, while the capacity utilization rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units increased [131]. - **Inventory Side** - **US Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventory decreased, while Cushing inventory increased. Northwest European crude oil inventory rose, and Singapore fuel oil inventory declined [3][96]. 3.4 Macro - finance - The US dollar index rebounded, and the yield of US Treasury bonds increased. The EU and the US are expected to reach a framework trade agreement, and the third - round China - US trade negotiation will focus on extending the tariff truce period and geopolitical issues [3]. 3.5 CFTC Positions - The speculative long positions in WTI crude oil decreased [154].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, domestic commodities continued to rise, with both industrial and agricultural products extending their rebound. The main reasons are the clarification of the external environment and the intensification of anti - involution policies, leading to an "anti - involution trading" in the market [3]. - In the overseas market, the US employment market continues to improve, but high - interest rates still suppress housing demand. The eurozone's comprehensive PMI has reached a new high, and the European Central Bank has paused rate cuts. The US has reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU has passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. - In the domestic market, the LPR remained unchanged in July, but there is a possibility of a decline in the second half of the year. Anti - involution policies are intensifying, causing a rise in the prices of black - series commodities and most industrial products. However, there is a short - term risk of over - heating market sentiment [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Viewpoints - **Impact Factors and Main Logic** - **Review**: Domestic commodities rose, driven by a clearer external environment and anti - involution policies [3]. - **Overseas**: The US employment market improved, with initial jobless claims falling to 217,000. US existing - home sales decreased by 2.7% in June. The eurozone's July composite PMI reached 51. The US reached trade agreements with Japan, the Philippines, and Indonesia, and the EU passed a counter - measure list [3]. - **Domestic**: The 1 - year LPR was 3.0% and the 5 - year LPR was 3.5% in July, remaining unchanged. Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, but there is a short - term risk of over - heating sentiment [3]. - **Commodities Viewpoint**: Although market risk appetite has improved, attention should be paid to Sino - US and Sino - European negotiations. Market sentiment may gradually return to rationality under regulatory guidance [3]. PART TWO: Overseas Situation Analysis - **US Employment**: In the third week of July, the number of initial jobless claims dropped by 4,000 to 217,000, and the increase in continuing jobless claims slowed down [3]. - **US Housing Market**: In June, the annualized total of existing - home sales was 3.93 million, a 2.7% month - on - month decline, the largest in nearly a year [3][9]. - **Eurozone Economy**: The July composite PMI reached 51, a new 11 - month high. The European Central Bank paused rate cuts after 8 consecutive cuts since June 2024 [3][14]. - **Tariff Policy**: The US reached trade agreements with multiple countries, and the EU passed a counter - measure list against the US [3]. PART THREE: Domestic Situation Analysis - **LPR**: The LPR remained unchanged in July, but there may be a decline in the second half of the year if economic downward pressure increases [3][22]. - **Market Situation**: Anti - involution policies led to an "anti - involution trading" in the market, with black - series commodities and most industrial products rising in price [3]. - **Agricultural and Energy Sectors**: The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a symposium on the high - quality development of the pig industry, and the National Energy Administration issued a notice on coal mine production inspections [3]. PART FOUR: High - Frequency Data Tracking - **Industrial开工率**: The PTA开工率 was 80.69% on July 25, and the POY开工率 was 86.8% [36]. - **Automobile Sales**: Data shows the trends of manufacturer wholesale and retail sales and their year - on - year changes [39]. - **Commodity Prices**: The average wholesale prices of vegetables, pork, and fruits, as well as the Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index, are presented [44].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 玉米:新陈交替，关注远月逢高做空机会 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏多， | （1）余粮趋紧，东北粮有外运需求，但目前北港集港量和下海量仍处于相对偏高水平；（2）25/26年度种植成本继续下降，推算集港约2000-2100元吨；播 | | | 中期偏空 | 种面积无明显变化；目前新季玉米长势良好；（3）进口谷物政策限制持续，本年度进口谷物供应预期缩量。 | | | | （1）据饲料工业协会数据，2025 年6月，全国工业饲料产量 2767 万吨，环比下降 0.1%，同比增长6.6%。饲料企业生产的配合饲料中玉米用量占比为 36.3%， | | 需求 | 偏空 | 同比增长 2.5 个百分点；（2）畜禽短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求，但国家政策倾向于控生猪存栏和体重；（3）麦玉价差低位，饲料厂加大对小麦的 | | | | 采购力度，小麦替代比例提升，对玉米的采购利润偏弱；（4）深加工下游亏损，倒逼开机率下滑至低位，深加工需求缩量。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | （1）南北港库存去化速度偏慢。截至 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation", with a short - term trading strategy of "oscillation" for the single - side and an arbitrage strategy of paying attention to the 9 - 12 reverse spread [3]. Core View of the Report - The supply and demand of asphalt both increase, and there is no significant contradiction in its own supply - demand relationship, so it follows the trend of crude oil. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it will move in line with crude oil [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: The asphalt production plan of local refineries in August 2025 is tentatively set at around 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 250,000 tons (27%) and a month - on - month increase of 60,000 tons (5%). The total asphalt production of local refineries from January to August 2025 is expected to be about 8.89 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.11 million tons (14%). The supply of imported asphalt is expected to shrink, supporting the import price. [3] - **Demand**: The release of demand falls short of expectations. Overall capital issues, the northern flood season, and the southern rainy season suppress demand. The downstream construction in the north is gradually recovering, while there is no obvious improvement in the south. The total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises this week is 415,000 tons, a slight month - on - month increase of 0.2%. [3] - **Inventory**: The factory inventory decreased significantly this week, from 773,000 tons last Thursday to 723,000 tons this Thursday. The social inventory increased slightly, from 1.827 million tons last Thursday to 1.857 million tons this Thursday. [3] - **Cost**: The current crude oil market is in an adjustment period after intense geopolitical fluctuations. In the short term, the market is likely to move sideways with support below and limited upside. In the medium term, it is unfavorable for the bulls. [3] 2. Price - The report presents the mainstream market prices of heavy - traffic asphalt in regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong, as well as the import prices from South Korea and Singapore [5][12]. 3. Spread, Basis, and Delivery Profit - The report shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and the basis in major regions [17][21]. 4. Supply - **Scheduled Production Expectation**: It shows the monthly scheduled production and actual production of asphalt in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 08, as well as the production in different regions in recent years [25]. - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025, and the weekly and monthly maintenance loss volumes of asphalt in China from 2018 to 2025 [34][40]. 5. Cost and Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, and the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt [43][46]. 6. Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory and inventory rate of asphalt in China and different regions from 2019 to 2025 [51][54]. - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [57]. 7. Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the shipment volumes of asphalt in China and different regions from 2022 to 2025 [60]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road - modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, waterproofing membranes, and modified asphalt in different regions in recent years [62][66][69].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the provided content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - The report provides a PVC main weekly data summary, including price, production, inventory, and other data. For example, the latest PVC main price is 5373 yuan/ton, up 8.83% from last week; China's production is 45.15 million tons, down 1.03% from last week [5]. PART TWO: Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - There are multiple charts showing the trends of PVC basis, different contract spreads, etc., from 2019 - 2025, such as the basis, SG - 5, and main contract trends from 2025/3/27 to 2025/6/27 [8]. PART THREE: PVC Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - There are numerous charts related to PVC supply - demand fundamentals from 2019 - 2025, covering aspects like production, inventory, and price trends over different weeks of each year, such as the trends of production, inventory, and price from the 3rd week to the 53rd week of each year [17][18].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 反内卷逻辑延续，价格偏强运行 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，期市有风险，投资需谨慎 纯碱:情绪不断发酵，价格偏强为主 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:反内卷持续发力，价格大幅向上 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | 产量持稳。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.9万吨，比17日+0.73%。行业开工率为75%，比17日-0.34个百分点；行业产能利用率为79.48%，比17 日+0.57个百分点。本周1条产线放水，一条前期点火的产线开始出玻璃，增量大于减量，供应量增长。下周1条前期点火的产线或将出玻璃， | | | | | 另有一条产线存在冷修预期，产量总体持稳。 | | | 需求 | 偏多 | 淡季需求整体承压，短期保有韧性，且随着价格向上，部分需求被刺激，产销大幅改善。 | | | 库存 | 偏多 | 库存去化明显，企业库存6189.6万重箱，环比-304.3万重箱，环比-4.69%，同比-7.7 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The signal of the peak in freight rates has emerged, and attention should be paid to the China-US talks next week. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July or early August, then decline slowly until late August, after which the decline rate will intensify. The main focus of the 10 - contract lies in the decline rate of freight rates from August to October [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART ONE: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influencing Factors and Their Impact** - **Spot Freight Rates**: Bearish. The spot price is expected to peak at the end of July. Different shipping alliances have different price trends, with some adjusting prices downwards [3] - **Political and Economic Factors**: Bearish. Tensions in international relations, such as the situation in the Middle East and the China - EU relationship, may have a negative impact on the market [3] - **Capacity Supply**: Neutral. There is an increase in capacity deployment in the future, new ship deliveries, and the port congestion situation in Europe has not been alleviated [3] - **Demand**: Neutral. The demand and loading rate at the end of July were good, but the effect of building a stockpiling rolling pool is weakening due to the high capacity deployment in early August [3] - **Investment and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Bearish, with a cautious and slightly negative stance - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Cautiously bearish; Arbitrage: Hold the 12 - 4 positive spread [3] PART TWO: Price - The spot market has slow demand recovery, high supply, the establishment of new alliances, and price declines in the off - season [5] PART TWO: Static Capacity - **Order - related Data**: Include order volume, new - order volume, and their breakdown by loading capacity, showing the development trend of container ship orders over the years [17][19] - **Delivery - related Data**: Include delivery volume, demolition volume, and future delivery volume, as well as their breakdown by loading capacity, reflecting the supply and demand situation of container ships in the future [24][27][30] - **Price - related Data**: Include ship - breaking prices, new - building prices, and second - hand ship prices, and their changes over time and by loading capacity, which are important factors affecting the cost and value of container ships [38][39][47] - **Existing Capacity Data**: Include the existing capacity of container ships, the proportion of idle and retrofitted ships, average age, and ship - breaking average age, which reflect the overall status of the container ship fleet [53][55][59] PART THREE: Dynamic Capacity - **Shipping Schedule and Capacity Deployment**: The total capacity deployment from Shanghai to European basic ports and the capacity deployment of different shipping alliances (PA + MSC, MSC, GEMINI, OCEAN) are presented, showing the dynamic changes in shipping capacity [67][69][71] - **Desulfurization Tower - related Data**: Include the number and proportion of container ships with installed desulfurization towers, those being installed, and the average age and duration of desulfurization tower installation, which are related to environmental protection requirements and ship operation [78][79][84] - **Average Speed and Idle Capacity**: The average speed of container ships and their breakdown by loading capacity, as well as the idle capacity, its proportion, and breakdown by loading capacity, are presented, reflecting the operation efficiency and utilization rate of container ships [84][89]