Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly Report" and is from the Black Metal Research Center of Guomao Futures, dated July 28, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Views - The market sentiment has cooled down, and short - term volatility has increased. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the far - month coking coal contracts hit the daily limit after consecutive limit - up boards. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. Different sub - sectors in the black metal industry have different supply - demand situations and investment outlooks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Steel - **Supply**: Neutral. Pig iron production decreased slightly within market expectations. Near September, production restrictions may occur due to important events. Short - process production may fluctuate in some areas during the peak power season, but it won't significantly impact the total output. Recently, the price of scrap steel has lagged behind, and some electric furnaces may increase their operating rates [6] - **Demand**: Neutral. After the price rebound, the trading volume improved, and the "buy on rising" mentality supported the demand. The spot market's liquidity is still locked. The large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the trading in the black metal sector [6] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The total inventory level is low, and the inventory accumulation during the off - season is not significant, which may trigger unexpected restocking [6] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis decreased slightly this week. The rb2510 basis in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 44 on Friday, down 20 from the previous week [6] - **Profit**: Bearish. Long - process steel mills still have profits, while short - process production profits are unstable, and the reduction in production has increased slightly [6] - **Valuation**: Neutral. The production links in the industry chain have meager profits, with relatively low relative valuation and moderately high absolute valuation [6] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. The market is waiting for the Politburo meeting in July to set the direction. The "anti - involution" in the industry has digested some optimistic expectations [6] - **Investment View**: Hold. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's guidance on policies in the second half of the year. The data shows the resilience of steel products, but the large fluctuations in coking coal and coke may drive the black metal sector. Consider taking profit on positive cash - and - carry positions [6] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold; Arbitrage: None; Cash - and - carry: Take profit on rolling positions [6] 2. Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Bullish. The five major steel products have not shown obvious inventory accumulation during the off - season. The daily average pig iron production of 247 steel mills remained at a high level, and the steel mill profitability rate increased, indicating high demand for furnace materials [48] - **Coking Coal Supply**: Bullish. Domestic over - production inspections have lowered the supply expectation. The port clearance has reached a high level, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Coke Supply**: Neutral. Coke production has rebounded from a low level, but the coking profit has decreased, and the cost of raw coal has increased, leading to faster price increases [48] - **Inventory**: Bullish. Downstream replenishment demand has been released, and the overall inventory of coking coal and coke has shifted downstream. The total inventory has continued to decline significantly [48] - **Basis/Spread**: Bearish. The basis cost of coke and coking coal has increased, and the import window for overseas coal has opened [48] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills have a high profitability rate, while coking profits are negative and the cost of raw coal has risen rapidly [48] - **Summary**: Neutral. The off - season data of the black metal industry is still good, but the previous rapid rise in futures prices may have over - anticipated the market. After the exchange restricted position - opening, the market may decline further. It is recommended to wait and take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Take profit on previous cash - and - carry positions; Arbitrage: Hold [48] 3. Iron Ore - **Supply**: Bullish. The shipping volume will seasonally increase in the following weeks, but the typhoon weather has affected the arrival and unloading rhythm. The arrival volume will decline later, and the supply pressure is not significant based on the current pig iron demand [94] - **Demand**: Neutral. The pig iron production of steel mills decreased slightly this week due to a temporary blast furnace maintenance. The steel mill profitability rate reached a new high this year, and the port inventory increased slightly [94] - **Inventory**: Neutral. Although the arrival volume usually increases in July and August, it is difficult to enter a large - scale inventory accumulation stage in the short term with high pig iron production [94] - **Profit**: Neutral. Steel mills' profits are still high, so pig iron production can remain at a high level in the short term [94] - **Valuation**: Neutral. With high pig iron production, the short - term valuation is relatively neutral [94] - **Summary**: Neutral. Pig iron production remained at a high level with small fluctuations. Iron ore showed strong resistance to decline after the coking coal position - opening restriction. The port inventory accumulation is small, and there is still room for the port inventory to decline in the short term. It is not recommended to short the black metal market in the short term [94] - **Investment View**: Consolidation - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Buy on dips; Arbitrage: Hold [94]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - A - share mid - year report performance pre - announcements show a sequential improvement but a slight year - on - year decline. Industry differentiation is significant, with non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals leading, while the real estate industry chain is under pressure [3]. - The market is mainly trading on the "anti - involution" policy expectations. The July Politburo meeting is yet to be held, and the market is concerned about the policy focus in the second - half economic work [3]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that China - US economic and trade officials will conduct the third round of trade consultations in Stockholm, Sweden. - The liquidity is relatively abundant, with the A - share margin trading balance increasing and the trading volume rising. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down, showing a volatile pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Their Driving Forces** - **Economic and Corporate Earnings**: Neutral. As of July 21, about 28.6% of A - share companies (1547) disclosed their 2025 mid - year report pre - announcements, with a pre - joy rate of 43.7%. Non - bank finance and non - ferrous metals have strong performance expectations, while the real estate industry chain is sluggish [3]. - **Macro Policy**: Neutral - bullish. The market is highly concerned about whether the upcoming policies signal a new round of supply - side reform. The July Politburo meeting is awaited for policy focus [3]. - **Overseas Factors**: Neutral. The US Treasury Secretary announced China - US trade consultations [3]. - **Liquidity**: Bullish. The A - share margin trading balance increased, and the trading volume rose [3]. - **Investment Views and Trading Strategies** - **Investment View**: Adjust and go long. The short - term upward speed of the stock index may slow down due to the ebb of hot topics [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Adjust and go long. Risk concerns include domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3]. 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance**: Last week, the CSI 300 rose 1.69% to 4127.2; the SSE 50 rose 1.12% to 2795.5; the CSI 500 rose 3.28% to 6299.6; the CSI 1000 rose 2.36% to 6706.6 [5]. - **Industry Index Performance**: In the Shenwan Primary Industry Index, building materials (8.2%), steel (7.7%), non - ferrous metals (6.7%), building decoration (5.6%), and real estate (4.1%) led the gains last week, while only banking (- 2.9%), communication (- 0.8%), and public utilities (- 0.3%) declined [9]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of some stock index futures changed. For example, the trading volume of CSI 300 futures increased by 3.80%, and the open interest increased by 2.76% [13]. - **Contract Premium and Discount**: As of July 25, the annualized discounts and premiums of different contracts of various stock index futures varied [15]. - **Cross - variety Spread**: The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at the 86.1% historical quantile level, and the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at the 61.7% historical quantile level [19]. 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influence Factors - Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 1656.3 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations this week, along with 400 billion yuan of MLF and 100 billion yuan of treasury cash fixed - deposit operations. The net investment for the whole week was 10.95 billion yuan [26]. - **Market Liquidity Indicators**: As of July 24, the A - share margin trading balance was 1935.73 billion yuan, an increase of 39.32 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading volume accounted for 11.3% of the total market trading volume, at the 96.4% quantile level in the past decade. The average daily trading volume last week increased by 277.84 billion yuan compared with the previous week [32]. 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Economic Fundamental and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In June 2025, China's GDP growth rate was 5.2%, industrial added value increased by 6.8% year - on - year, and other economic indicators showed different trends [35]. - **Industry - specific Economic Data**: The real estate industry showed a decline in investment, while the manufacturing and consumer industries had their own characteristics. For example, the manufacturing industry maintained a certain growth rate, and the consumer industry had different performances in various sub - sectors [35][38][39]. - **PMI Data**: In June 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.5, showing marginal improvements in some sub - indicators [42]. - **Earnings Indicators of Major Broad - based Indexes**: The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders and ROE of major broad - based indexes varied [47]. - **Financial Data of Shenwan Primary Industry Index**: The profitability of different industries in the Shenwan Primary Industry Index showed significant differences, with some industries having high growth rates and others in decline [48]. 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influence Factors - Policy Drive - **Recent Macro - policy Trends**: A series of meetings and policies have been introduced, including the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting emphasizing the governance of low - price and disorderly competition, and the Central Urban Work Conference focusing on urban development transformation. A package of financial policies has also been announced to support the economy [52][53]. 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influence Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data**: In June 2025, the US manufacturing PMI was 49%, the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.8%, the unemployment rate was 4.1%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 147,000. The PCE and CPI also showed different trends [60][63]. - **Trump Team's Statements and Actions**: Trump has proposed a series of tariff policies, which have had a certain impact on international trade relations. There have also been legal disputes over tariff policies [69][71][73]. 3.7 Part Six: Stock Index Influence Factors - Valuation - As of July 25, 2025, the rolling price - to - earnings ratios of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 were 13.5 times, 11.4 times, 30.7 times, and 41.3 times respectively, at the 73.7%, 81.5%, 71.6%, and 63.9% quantile levels in the past decade [76].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 粕类：弱现实强预期，关注中美政策变化 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 短期偏空， | （1）本周美豆优良率降至68%，未来两周堪萨斯州预期偏干，或不利于大豆生长，但其他地区天气正常，整体有利于大豆生长。（2）巴西大豆集中到港 压力下，7、8月国内大豆压榨预期在千万吨以上，豆粕累库压力预期持续至9月；10-1月国内船偏慢。（3）中加贸易政策下，国内进口菜粕和菜籽供应预 | | | 中期偏多 | 期缩量，国内菜粕在9月前存在去库预期，9月后供应存在一定的不确定性。 | | 需求 | 豆粕偏多， | （1）生猪和禽类养殖短期预期维持高存栏，支撑饲用需求，但政策导向控生猪存栏和体重；（2）豆粕性价比较高，提货居于高位；菜粕预期维持水产刚 | | | 菜粕偏空 | 需，本周提货上升；（3）部分地区小麦替代玉米，减少对蛋白的用量；（4）本周豆粕成交正常，菜粕成交较为清淡。 | | 库存 | 偏空 | （1）国内大豆库存增至高位；（2）豆粕处于累库周期；（3）饲料企业豆粕 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the pig industry is neutral [3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pig market shows a situation where pig slaughter volume is shrinking, and the spot price is fluctuating weakly. The supply is affected by factors such as piglet diarrhea in January - February, which impacts the pig slaughter supply from June - July. Meanwhile, demand has shown some recovery, and the inventory of slaughterhouses and frozen products is at a low level compared to the same period. The futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and there are multiple stimulus policies that are expected to boost future pork demand. The market is likely to oscillate at the bottom [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Bullish. Piglet diarrhea in January - February affected the pig slaughter supply from June - July. After the initial slaughter in mid - June, group farms' willingness to reduce weight decreased, and the spot price stabilized, stimulating secondary fattening散户 to continue holding pigs [3] - **Demand**: Bearish. The slaughter volume from March - April increased significantly compared to the beginning of the year and the same period last year, indicating a certain degree of demand recovery [3] - **Inventory**: Bullish. The inventory rates of slaughterhouses and frozen products are at low levels compared to the same period [3] - **Basis/Spread**: Neutral. This week, the near - month basis of pigs converged, and the spread between September and January oscillated strongly [3] - **Profit**: Neutral. The breeding profit is stable but slightly weak, yet still positive [3] - **Valuation**: Bullish. The current futures price is close to the cash cost of breeding, and the downside space is relatively limited [3] - **Macro and Policy**: Bullish. Domestically, multiple significant stimulus policies have been introduced, including fiscal policies to expand domestic demand in all aspects and a moderately loose monetary policy, which helps boost future pork demand [3] - **Investment View**: Neutral. The demand for secondary fattening is cautious, the supply side is stable, there is cost support at the bottom, and the market may oscillate at the bottom [3] - **Trading Strategy**: For single - side trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, also wait and see. Pay attention to the demand for secondary fattening and feed prices [3] 3.2 Pig Fundamental Data - **Price Data**: There are charts showing the prices of standard pigs, fat pigs, piglets, and front - three - grade white - striped pork in Henan, as well as their price trends from 2021 - 2025 [5] - **Capacity Scale**: Charts display the inventory of sample sows, including the quantity, month - on - month, and year - on - year changes, as well as the inventory data of sows from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, and the number of new healthy piglets and commercial pig slaughter in five - province samples, along with survival rates [10][22] - **Commercial Pig Inventory Structure**: Charts show the inventory proportions of large pigs (90 - 140kg), medium pigs (50 - 90kg), and small pigs (7 - 50kg), as well as the standard - fat price difference, north - south price difference, average slaughter weight, and average post - slaughter weight [27] - **Leading Enterprise Slaughter Situation**: Charts present the monthly slaughter volumes of companies such as Muyuan, Wenshi, New Hope, Dabeinong, and Tangrenshen from 2021 - 2025 [40] - **Slaughter Situation**: Charts show daily slaughter volume, slaughterhouse operating rate, fresh - sales rate, and inventory rate of slaughterhouses, as well as the wholesale volume of white - striped pork in markets like Xinfadi, the arrival volume of white - striped pork in Nanhuanqiao and Shanghai Xijiao, and the price difference between live pigs and white - striped pork [45][53] - **Profit and Cost**: Charts display self - breeding and self - raising profits, profits from purchasing piglets, the pig - grain ratio, and the feed price of fattening pigs [54] 3.3 Pig Capital - Side Data - There are charts showing the basis of different contracts (03, 05, 07, 09) and the price differences between different contracts (03 - 05, 03 - 09, 05 - 07, 05 - 09) from 2022 - 2025 [59][68]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view is to wait and see, and the trading strategy for the single - side is to wait and see [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the rise of pulp was mainly due to the macro - sentiment driving the repair of futures valuation, while the spot fundamentals of pulp remained weak. This week, macro - risk fluctuations have intensified, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines with an empty position [6] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: It is bearish. In late May, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 49 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp increased by 5 days to 46 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. In May 2025, the shipments of broad - leaf pulp from three South American countries to China and the shipments of coniferous pulp from Canada increased, and the overall supply increased. The current quotes for coniferous pulp in North America/Northern Europe are $680 - 710 per ton, and the import quote for broad - leaf pulp is $500 per ton [3] - **Demand**: It is bearish. This week, the production of major finished paper products remained basically stable. The rise in pulp prices did not arouse the restocking sentiment of paper mills, and pulp prices still declined [3] - **Inventory**: It is neutral. As of July 24, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 214.3 tons, a decrease of 3.8 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 1.7% [3] - **Trading Profit**: It is neutral. The ex - works price in June decreased compared with May, and the import profit of coniferous and broad - leaf pulp was repaired, with the import profit of coniferous pulp in a positive position. As of July 25, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 59.35 yuan per ton [3] - **Valuation**: It is bearish. This week, under the influence of macro - bullish factors, the futures price of pulp rose significantly, and the basis of broad - leaf pulp weakened to around - 1300~ - 1400 yuan per ton [3] 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures and Spot Price Trends**: Last week, the rise of pulp was due to macro - sentiment driving the repair of futures valuation, and the spot fundamentals were weak. This week, macro - risk fluctuations intensified. Pulp spot prices rebounded slightly. The price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920 yuan per ton, up 20 yuan per ton week - on - week and down 30 yuan per ton month - on - month. The price of coniferous pulp Buzhen was 5500 yuan per ton, up 300 yuan per ton week - on - week and up 380 yuan per ton month - on - month. The price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was 4150 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton week - on - week and up 100 yuan per ton month - on - month [6][15] - **Foreign Quotes**: In May, the foreign quotes for coniferous pulp decreased significantly, and the price of broad - leaf pulp declined. In July, the price of broad - leaf pulp from Chile Arauco was $500 per ton net, and the offer for unbleached pulp Venus was $590 per ton [16][19] - **Futures Position Volume**: As of July 25, 2025, the total position volume of pulp futures contracts was 305,363 lots, a 10.1% increase from last week; the position volume of the main pulp futures contract was 147,585 lots, a 1.30% increase from last week [20] 3.3 Pulp Supply and Demand Fundamental Data - **Import Volume**: In June, the import volume of pulp increased. The total import volume of pulp was 3.016 million tons, a 4.25% increase. The import volume of coniferous pulp was 722,000 tons, a 4.75% decrease, and the import volume of broad - leaf pulp was 1.293 million tons, a 7.84% increase [4] - **Shipment Volume**: In May 2025, the pulp shipment volume was 4.125 million tons, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. Among them, the shipment volume of coniferous pulp was 1.68 million tons, a 4.4% month - on - month increase, and the shipment volume of broad - leaf pulp was 2.53 million tons, a 1.2% month - on - month increase [38] - **Inventory**: Port and futures inventories increased. Overseas/European pulp mill inventories also increased. In late May, the inventory of 20 major global commodity pulp suppliers was 49 days. The inventory days of bleached softwood pulp increased by 5 days to 46 days, and that of bleached hardwood pulp increased by 4 days to 51 days. In May 2025, the month - end inventory of European port pulp increased by 13.3% month - on - month and 22.0% year - on - year, rising from 1.352 million tons at the end of April to 1.531 million tons [39][45] - **Downstream Demand**: - **Price**: As of July 25, 2025, the price of offset paper was 5012 yuan per ton, a 2.2% month - on - month decrease; the price of coated paper was 5340 yuan per ton, a 1.1% month - on - month decrease; the price of tissue paper was 5600 yuan per ton, a 1.2% month - on - month decrease; the price of white cardboard was 4010 yuan per ton, a 1.5% month - on - month decrease [49] - **Production**: In June 2025, the production of offset paper was 688,000 tons, a 6% month - on - month increase and a 16% year - on - year decrease; the production of coated paper was 366,200 tons, a 0.67% month - on - month decrease and a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the production of tissue paper increased by 2% month - on - month and 11.2% year - on - year; the production of white cardboard increased by 2% month - on - month and 10.6% year - on - year [55] - **Inventory**: As of June 2025, the inventory of offset paper was 1.83 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 13.3% year - on - year increase; the inventory of coated paper was 1.23 million tons, a 1.6% month - on - month increase and a 2.7% year - on - year increase; the inventory of tissue paper was 400,000 tons, a 3.1% month - on - month increase and a 16.9% year - on - year increase; the inventory of white cardboard was 2.1914 million tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase and an 8.2% year - on - year decrease [62] - **European and American Demand**: In June 2025, the available inventory days of European coniferous pulp were 28.5, a 0.81 increase month - on - month and a 4.47 increase year - on - year; the available inventory days of broad - leaf pulp were 26.7, a 3.94 increase month - on - month and a 5.04 increase year - on - year. As of June 2025, the capacity utilization rate of US paper products was 81.97%, a 0.14% month - on - month decrease. In May 2025, the inventory - to - sales ratio of paper products was 1.05, a 0.01 increase month - on - month and a 0.06 increase year - on - year [68] 3.4 Pulp Futures Valuation - **Price Difference**: As of July 25, 2025, the basis of Shandong Buzhen was - 20 yuan per ton, a 74 - yuan per - ton increase from last week; the basis of Shandong Silver Star was 400 yuan per ton, a 208 - yuan per - ton decrease from last week. The 9 - 1 month spread of pulp was - 52 yuan per ton, a 113 - yuan per - ton increase from last week [75] - **Import Profit**: As of July 25, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp was 59 yuan per ton, a 9 - yuan per - ton increase from last week; the import profit of broad - leaf pulp was 64 yuan per ton, a 55 - yuan per - ton increase from last week [78] - **Coniferous - Broad Leaf Price Difference**: As of July 25, 2025, the coniferous - broad leaf price difference in Shandong, China was 1660 yuan per ton, a 217.5 - yuan per - ton decrease from last week. In June 2024, the coniferous - broad leaf import ratio in China was 0.47, a 0.09 decrease from last month [80]

Report Title - Weekly Report on Precious Metals (AU, AG): Safe-Haven Demand Cools, Pressuring Gold and Silver [1] Report Date - July 28, 2025 [2] Report Author - Bai Suna [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - With Trump announcing trade agreements with more countries, global trade tensions ease, reducing safe-haven demand and pressuring precious metal prices. Monitor the progress of US-EU negotiations and China-US-Sweden economic and trade talks, and beware of tariff policy fluctuations as the August 1 tariff suspension period ends [5] - The ECB kept interest rates unchanged in July and the probability of a September rate cut decreased, indicating the end of the ECB's easing cycle. The Fed is also likely to keep rates unchanged in July, temporarily suppressing precious metal prices. Trump's pressure on the Fed to cut rates continues, but the dollar credit risk is alleviated, weakening gold's short-term upward drive. However, the probability of a Fed rate cut in September is over 60%, providing medium-term support for gold prices. Focus on key US economic data this week [5] - In the first half of the week, the commodity trading limit-up atmosphere boosted Shanghai silver to break through the 9,500 yuan/kg mark. But as gold weakened and commodities tumbled on Friday night, silver prices were dragged down. As the irrational commodity rally subsides, silver's short-term resilience may weaken, and it is expected to return to fundamental logic in the medium term [5] - Strategy: Buy gold on dips; stay on the sidelines for silver [5] - Long-term view: Bullish. With the Fed likely to cut rates in the second half of the year, global geopolitical tensions remaining complex, de-globalization intensifying, and the weakening of the US dollar credit, central banks will continue to be net buyers of gold, providing long-term support for gold prices [5] Summary by Directory 1. Market and Fundamental Indicator Tracking Gold and Silver Prices and Gold-Silver Ratio - London spot gold was at $3,336.22/oz, down $13.435 (-0.40%) from the previous week; Shanghai gold futures were at 777.32 yuan/g, up 0.3 yuan (0.04%) [4] - London spot silver was at $38.137/oz, down $0.01 (-0.03%) from the previous week; Shanghai silver futures were at 9,392 yuan/kg, up 119 yuan (1.28%) [4] - SHFE gold-silver ratio was 82.76, down 1.03 (-1.23%) from the previous week [4] ETF and CFTC Positions - Gold SPDR-ETF holdings were 957.09 tons, up 13.47 tons (1.43%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX gold non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 253,038 contracts, up 39,923 contracts (18.73%) from the previous week [4] - Silver SLV-ETF holdings were 15,230 tons, up 572 tons (3.90%) from the previous week [4] - COMEX silver non-commercial net long positions (lagging one week) were 60,620 contracts, up 1,172 contracts (1.97%) from the previous week [4] Inventory Data - SHFE gold inventory was 30.258 tons, up 1.4 tons (4.85%) from the previous week; COMEX gold inventory was 1,174.54 tons, up 17.74 tons (1.53%) from the previous week [4] - SHFE silver inventory was 1,187 tons, down 23.82 tons (-1.97%) from the previous week; COMEX silver inventory was 15,562 tons, up 95.7 tons (0.62%) from the previous week; SGE silver inventory (lagging one week) was 1,312 tons, down 15.21 tons (-1.15%) from the previous week [4] 2. Main Macroeconomic Indicator Tracking Exchange Rates and Interest Rates - The US dollar index was 97.6701, down 0.7899 (-0.80%) from the previous week; the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.1681, down 0.0129 (-0.18%) from the previous week [4] - The 2-year US Treasury yield was 3.9275%, up 0.0647 (1.67%) from the previous week; the 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.3878%, down 0.0217 (-0.49%) from the previous week; the US 10-year real interest rate was 1.96%, down 0.07 (-3.45%) from the previous week [4] Economic Data - The US first-quarter GDP growth rate unexpectedly contracted; the consumer confidence index improved for the first time in half a year [59] - The US manufacturing PMI and service PMI were better than expected; the US retail sales data showed positive trends [60] - The US June non-farm payrolls were higher than expected, and the unemployment rate declined [66] - Inflation in the US rebounded slightly, but inflation expectations cooled [73] - The eurozone GDP bottomed out and rebounded; the eurozone manufacturing PMI rebounded, while the service PMI declined [82] Central Bank Gold Purchases - The People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves for the eighth consecutive month, with 73.9 million ounces at the end of June, a month-on-month increase of 700,000 ounces (about 2.18 tons) [91] - Global central banks remained net buyers of gold. In the first quarter of 2025, global central banks and other institutions net-purchased 243.7 tons of gold, a year-on-year decrease of about 21.4%. Despite the decline in the first quarter, the overall performance remained strong, and global central banks were expected to continue net-purchasing gold [91]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The upward momentum of iron element futures prices slowed down on Wednesday, with a cooling of both spot volume and prices, while coking coal and coke remained strong. The market may enter a stage of differentiation among varieties, but it's uncertain if the peak inflection point has been reached [2][3]. - For steel, the sentiment has slightly cooled. The 10 - contract rebar on the futures surface is relatively weaker, and the unilateral black - series may experience increased volatility. The key to the market lies in capital drive and sentiment fluctuations in the futures market [3]. - For coking coal and coke, coking coal closed at the daily limit, and the third round of coke price increases is expected to be quickly implemented. The market is in an accelerated bull phase, and future capital games and exchange interventions may be important influencing factors [3]. - For ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the anti - involution logic continues, and the prices of the two silicons are running strongly due to supply reduction and potential cost support [3]. - For iron ore, the market is in an adjustment stage. The upward pressure is obvious, and although the "anti - involution" trading sentiment continues, it's not recommended to short on the left side. It's necessary to wait and see if demand can keep up during the peak season [3]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs [Steel] - The sentiment has slightly cooled. The 10 - contract rebar is relatively weaker, which is related to the rapid increase in the volume of rebar futures warehouse receipts, suppressing the valuation of the near - month contract rebar. The unilateral black - series may have increased volatility, and it can be observed whether there is support when stepping back on the moving average. The focus is on the change in steel production this week. If demand remains resilient and can continue to absorb increased supply, it will support the strong pattern of furnace materials [3]. [Coking Coal and Coke] - On the spot side, the third round of coke price increases is expected to be quickly implemented, and the coking coal spot auction sentiment is booming with significantly increased transaction prices. On the futures side, the market sentiment is still high, with coking coal closing at the daily limit. The main influencing factors in the future may be capital games and exchange interventions. The market attaches great importance to the signal of the energy bureau's verification of coal mine over - production, which is considered a shift in the previous loose coal production policy. Fundamentally, the black industry data is good, with slow resumption of domestic coal mines, rapid de - stocking upstream, and active restocking downstream. The coking coal warehouse receipt cost is around 1100 - 1200 yuan, and the Australian coal import window has opened. The multi - head market is in an accelerated stage, and investors are advised to manage risks, avoid short - selling, and those not yet in the market should wait and see [3]. [Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese] - The anti - involution logic continues, and the prices of the two silicons are running strongly due to the supply reduction under this logic. The national energy bureau's verification of coal over - production has heated up the market sentiment. Although the decline in coal prices has lowered the cost support for the two silicons, if coal supply is disrupted, their cost will be strongly supported. Despite the weak fundamentals, the prices are likely to rise under strong market expectations [3]. [Iron Ore] - The market is in an adjustment stage. With the energy bureau's verification of coal production, the commodity index has risen, and coking coal has reached the daily limit, while iron ore feels significant upward pressure and needs short - term adjustment. The "anti - involution" trading sentiment continues, and it's not recommended to short on the left side. Steel mill profits remain high, and the daily average molten iron output in July is expected to remain at a high level of around 240. Multiple varieties have entered the futures - spot market, driving the spot to follow the futures up. It's necessary to wait and see if demand can keep up during the peak season before considering short - selling [3].

Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.65% to 3605.73 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.5%, the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 rose 1.1%, the Science and Technology Innovation 50 rose 1.17%, the Wind All A rose 1.08%, the Wind A500 rose 1%, and the CSI A500 rose 0.92% [9] - The B - share market had a turnover of 1.87 trillion yuan, compared with 1.9 trillion yuan the previous day [9] - The closing prices, changes, trading volumes, and turnovers of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are as follows: the Shanghai 50 closed at 2812.4428, up 0.40%, with a turnover of 118.138 billion yuan and a trading volume of 6.028 billion; the CSI 300 closed at 4149.0368, up 0.71%, with a turnover of 487 billion yuan and a trading volume of 31.963 billion; the CSI 1000 closed at 6701.12, up 1.42%, with a turnover of 374.406 billion yuan and a trading volume of 28.542 billion [4] CFFEX Stock Index Option Trading Situation - For the Shanghai 50 index options, the trading volume was 3.67 million contracts (2.64 million for call options and 1.04 million for put options, with a PCR of 0.39), and the open interest was 6.23 million contracts (4.01 million for call options and 2.22 million for put options, with a PCR of 0.55) [4] - For the CSI 300 index options, the trading volume was 8.7 million contracts (5.83 million for call options and 2.87 million for put options, with a PCR of 0.49), and the open interest was 17.35 million contracts (10.18 million for call options and 7.17 million for put options, with a PCR of 0.70) [4] - For the CSI 1000 index options, the trading volume was 19.6 million contracts (11.22 million for call options and 8.39 million for put options, with a PCR of 0.75), and the open interest was 23.22 million contracts (11.91 million for call options and 11.31 million for put options, with a PCR of 0.95) [4] Volatility Analysis - The historical volatility and implied volatility of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 are presented through historical volatility chains and volatility smile curves [7][8]

装置检修动态:华东一套150万吨PTA装置目前已投料重启,该装置5.6附近停车检修。华东一套300万吨PTA装置已于近日停车检 修,预计10天附近。 PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 4000 5200 300 100 4200 3000 -100 -300 3200 2000 2024- 2024- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2025- 2025- 2023- 2024-11 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2024-07 2024-09 05 0d 01 05 09 01 05 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 =DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 切片现金流 涤短现金流 600 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 01 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2 ...

周三铁元素期价上冲动能略微放缓,带着现货量价都有降温,焦煤焦炭却还强势,后续可能会进入到品种间分化且涨势出 匪煤县寿(石册 800 50000 4000 600 3000 400 【钢材】情绪略微降温 2000 200 分歧的阶段,但并不能确定高点拐点己经出现。产业层面,关注本周钢材产量端变化,若延续需求韧性且能继续承接供 1000 增产,那么将继续支撑炉料偏强的格局。盘面10 合约螺纹相对更弱一些,这与近期螺纹期货仓单量快速回升存在相关性, 压制近月合约螺纹估值。目前期现套暂还没有解锁,期现正套依然锁住一部分现货货物流。单边,黑色系可能会出现波动加 -200 大,可观察是否回踩均线有支撑。行情的锚点主要在于期货市场资金驱动和情绪波动,重点关注 IC + 7202 50 + 7202 20 + 7202 【焦煤焦炭】焦煤继续涨停板,焦炭第三轮提涨井后 现货端,焦炭第三轮提涨登场,预计很快落地,焦煤现货竞拍情绪火爆,成交价大幅上涨。港口贸易准一焦炭报价1420(+ 40),炼焦煤价格指数1102.5(+31.7);蒙煤方面,市场报价再创新高,下游拿货情绪有所好转,现甘其毛都口岸,蒙5 焦炭基差(右轴) 原煤99 ...