投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 2025/7/25 | 指标 | | 7月24日 | 涨跌 | | 豆粕主力合约基差(张家港) | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 大连 | 15 | 40 | 2500 2000 | -----19/20 ----- 20/21 ----- 21/22 ------ 22/23 -- 23/24 | · 24/25 | | | 天津 | -85 | -30 | 1500 1000 | | | | | 日照 | -165 | 10 | | | | | 43%豆粕现货基差 | 张家港 | -165 | 10 | -900 | | | | (对主力合约) | | | | 09/21 | 10/22 11/22 12/23 01/23 02/23 03/25 04/25 05/26 06/26 07/27 08/27 | | | | 东莞 | -145 | 50 | | M9-M1 | | | | | | | | ----- 2019/20 == == ===== 2022/23 | | | | 湛江 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The EC market rebounded on Friday with the 08 contract surging due to Maersk's announced PSS price increase of $500 for long - term contracts in August and ONE's online quote increase of $300. However, the market sentiment fluctuated as ONE's offline August early - period list price remained the same as late - July and CML cut prices at the end of July. The 10 contract declined on Monday afternoon, and the market dropped on Tuesday afternoon as MSK's August first - week freight rate was lower than the current selling price. On Wednesday, it was affected by Maersk's overtime ship opening at $2700. Overall, it rebounded on Thursday afternoon due to the positive commodity market, but some airlines continued to cut prices for late - July and early - August. It is expected that the European line freight rate will peak at the end of July, with a low possibility of price hikes in August, and even if there are price hikes, the success rate will be low. The freight rate is about to enter an arc - top trend, and the accelerated decline is expected at the end of August [7]. - The strategy is to short the 10 contract on rallies and hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Freight Index - **Current Values**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) is 1647, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is 1304, SCFI - US West is 2142, SCFIS - US West is 1301, SCFI - US East is 3612, SCFI - Northwest Europe is 2079, SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 2400, and SCFI - Mediterranean is 2528 [5]. - **Previous Values**: SCFI was 1733, CCFI was 1314, SCFI - US West was 2194, SCFIS - US West was 1266, SCFI - US East was 4172, SCFI - Northwest Europe was 2099, SCFIS - Northwest Europe was 2421, and SCFI - Mediterranean was 2667 [5]. - **Percentage Changes**: SCFI decreased by 4.98%, CCFI decreased by 0.78%, SCFI - US West decreased by 2.37%, SCFIS - US West increased by 2.76%, SCFI - US East decreased by 13.42%, SCFI - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.95%, SCFIS - Northwest Europe decreased by 0.87%, and SCFI - Mediterranean decreased by 5.21% [5]. 3.2 Contracts - **Current Values**: EC2506 is 1506.9, EC2508 is 2244.9, EC2510 is 1583.9, EC2512 is 1779.9, EC2602 is 1562.3, and EC2604 is 1382.0 [5]. - **Previous Values**: EC2506 was 1468.8, EC2508 was 2239.7, EC2510 was 1537.0, EC2512 was 1701.8, EC2602 was 1477.3, and EC2604 was 1324.0 [5]. - **Percentage Changes**: EC2506 increased by 2.59%, EC2508 increased by 0.23%, EC2510 increased by 3.05%, EC2512 increased by 4.59%, EC2602 increased by 5.75%, and EC2604 increased by 4.38% [5]. 3.3 Positions - **Current Values**: EC2606 position is 841, EC2508 position is 9684, EC2410 position is 50586, EC2412 position is 8741, EC2602 position is 4327, and EC2604 position is 5513 [5]. - **Previous Values**: EC2606 position was 807, EC2508 position was 11039, EC2410 position was 50131, EC2412 position was 8446, EC2602 position was 4094, and EC2604 position was 5800 [5]. - **Change Values**: EC2606 increased by 34, EC2508 decreased by 1355, EC2410 increased by 455, EC2412 increased by 295, EC2602 increased by 233, and EC2604 decreased by 287 [5]. 3.4 Calendar Spreads - **Current Values**: The 10 - 12 spread is 661.0, the 12 - 2 spread is - 196.0, and the 12 - 4 spread is 397.9 [5]. - **Previous Values**: The 10 - 12 spread was 702.7, the 12 - 2 spread was - 164.8, and the 12 - 4 spread was 377.8 [5]. - **Change Values**: The 10 - 12 spread decreased by 41.7, the 12 - 2 spread decreased by 31.2, and the 12 - 4 spread increased by 20.1 [5].

| II C E F H F | H 専 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 发布日期:202 | 业资格号: F025 以 | | | | | | | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 品种 | 当前国内外因素总体偏利多,国内"反内卷"政策和月底即将到 | | | | 来的政治局会议提升了政策预期。海外方面,对等关税进一步延 | 后至8月,美财长称中美第三轮磋商下周在瑞典举行,海外的扰动 | 显著减弱。A股流动性和市场情绪较强,股指预计偏强运行,策略 | | | | | | 上调整做多为主。 | 资产荒和弱经济利好债期,但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 宏观金融 | 国债 | 農汤 | | | | 空间。 | 虽关税进展预期较好,但市场不确定性仍存,金价短期料震荡为 | 震荡 | 南金 | | | | | 虽商品情绪仍旧亢奋,但关税进展仍会相对限制银价,短期或进 | 震荡 | 日银 | 入震荡走势。 | 国内反内卷题材有所反复,而下游需求尚可,铜价震荡偏强。 | | | | 원 | 辰汤 | 国内反内卷 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - A-shares are mainly speculating on the "anti-involution" policy and the beneficiary sectors of the Yarlung Zangbo River project. The news of the official launch of the full - island customs closure of Hainan Free Trade Port on December 18 this year has driven the strength of relevant beneficiary sectors. With overall positive domestic and overseas factors, A - share liquidity and market sentiment are strong, and stock index is expected to run strongly. The strategy is mainly to adjust and go long [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Money Market - DR001 rose more than 28bp to 1.65%, and DR007 rose 9.33bp to 1.58%. GC001 fell 48.50bp to 1.09%, and GC007 rose 1.50bp to 1.58%. SHBOR 3M rose 0.20bp to 1.55%, and LPR 5 - year remained unchanged at 3.50%. The yield of 1 - year treasury bond rose to 1.39, 5 - year treasury bond rose to 1.59, 10 - year treasury bond rose to 1.74, and 10 - year US bond rose 5.00bp to 4.40% [3] - The central bank conducted 331 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 450.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net withdrawal was 119.5 billion yuan. There are 1726.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market this week, and 200 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 25 [3] 3.2 Stock Index Futures Market - At the close yesterday, CSI 300 rose 0.71% to 4149, SSE 50 rose 0.4% to 2812.4, CSI 500 rose 1.56% to 6293.6, and CSI 1000 rose 1.42% to 6701.1. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1844.7 billion yuan, a slight contraction of 19.9 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors rose, with only the precious metals and banking sectors falling [4] - The trading volume of IF decreased by 12.9%, and the position increased by 0.9%; the trading volume of IH decreased by 19.5%, and the position increased by 0.1%; the trading volume of IC decreased by 9.3%, and the position increased by 0.7%; the trading volume of IM decreased by 3.1%, and the position remained unchanged [4] 3.3 Stock Index Futures Basis Situation - The basis rates of IF for the current - month, next - month, current - quarter, and next - quarter contracts are 0.81%, 0.00%, 0.01%, and 2.42% respectively; those of IH are - 1.74%, - 0.95%, - 0.49%, and - 0.30% respectively; those of IC are 6.33%, 6.88%, 7.41%, and 7.18% respectively; those of IM are 6.27%, 7.89%, 9.78%, and 9.75% respectively [6]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 贵金属数据日报 | | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0013700 | | | 2025/7/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 宏观金融研究中心 白素娜 | | 从业资格号:F3023916 | | | | | | 日期 | 伦敦金现 | 伦敦银现 | COMEX黄金 | COMEX白银 | AU2508 | AG2508 | AU (T+D) | AG (T+D) | | 内外盘金 | | (美元/盎司) | (美元/盎司) | (美元/登司) | (美元/盎司) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | (元/克) | (元/千克) | | 银15点价 | | | | | | | | | | | 格跟踪 | 2025/7/24 | 3375. 08 | 39.12 | 3380. 80 | 39. 38 | 776.24 | 9359.00 | 774.69 | 9358.00 | | (本表數 | | | ...

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 | 瓶片短纤数据日报 | | | | 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心 陈胜 | 投资咨询号: 2025/7/25 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | Z0017251 | | | | | | 从业资格号: | | | | | | F3066728 | | 指标 | 2025/7/23 | 2025/7/24 | 变动值 | | | PTA现货价格 | 4810 | 4815 | 5.00 | 现货资讯: | | MEG内盘价格 | 4501 | 4530 | 29.00 | 短纤:涤纶短纤涨44至6520。现货市场:涤纶 | | | | | | 短纤生产企业价格报盘稳定,午后期货价格上扬 | | PTA收盘价 | 4784 | 4850 | 66. 00 | 提振日内产销小幅回暖。受原料和期货上涨带动 | | MEG收盘价 | 4436 | 4485 | 49. 00 | 涤纶短纤午后市场商谈低端价格减少,商谈重心 | | 1.4D直纺涤短 | 6650 | 6650 | 0. 00 | 小幅攀升,但成交有所转 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows an increase in quantity and a decrease in price, with the W20's May shipment volume to China up 3.3% month-on-month and Chile's Arauco company's new July wood pulp offers indicating certain trends [1]. - The demand side has a slight increase in the output of major finished paper products this week, but the low - price of finished paper provides weak support for pulp [1]. - The inventory shows a slight de - stocking trend as of July 24, 2025, with the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China at 214.3 tons, a 3.8 - ton decrease from the previous period and a 1.7% month - on - month decline [2]. - It is expected that the futures price will have limited upward movement due to the lack of follow - up in spot prices and will likely move in a volatile manner [2] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Pulp Price Data - **Futures Prices**: On July 24, 2025, SP2601 was 5546, up 0.51% day - on - day and 2.36% week - on - week; SP2605 was 5462, down 0.07% day - on - day and 1.32% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5456, up 0.78% day - on - day and 3.65% week - on - week [1]. - **Spot Prices**: Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5920, down 0.50% day - on - day and unchanged week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5420, down 1.09% day - on - day and up 2.26% week - on - week; Broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4150, unchanged day - on - day and up 2.47% week - on - week [1]. - **Outer - disk Quotes**: Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 500 dollars, down 10.71% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1]. - **Import Costs**: Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Chilean Star was 4101, down 10.60% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1]. Pulp Fundamental Data - **Supply**: In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, and broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons. The W20's May shipment volume to China increased by 3.3% month - on - month [1]. - **Inventory**: As of July 17, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 218.1 tons, and the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.60 tons [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the output of major finished paper products increased slightly, including double - offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard [1]. Pulp Valuation Data - **Basis**: On July 24, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was - 36 with a quantile level of 0.591; the Silver Star basis was 464 with a quantile level of 0.841 [1]. - **Import Profit**: On July 24, 2025, the import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 36 with a quantile level of 0.685; that of broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 49 with a quantile level of 0.69 [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Affected by rumors from the supply side of Jiangxi mines, the price of lithium carbonate has rapidly soared. At the current price level, the acceptance of the spot market by downstream buyers is low, resulting in a small actual trading volume. In the short term, market sentiment is strong with frequent speculations, and the pricing weight of fundamental contradictions and hedging pressure may increase. Industrial players can consider hedging at high prices [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compounds - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate is 70,550 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 68,900 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan [1] - The closing prices and daily increases of lithium carbonate futures contracts are as follows: Li2508 at 76,500 yuan/ton with a 5.84% increase; Li2509 at 76,680 yuan/ton with a 7.21% increase; Li2510 at 75,460 yuan/ton with a 6.1% increase; Li2511 at 75,000 yuan/ton with a 6.17% increase; Li2512 at 74,680 yuan/ton with a 6.35% increase [1] Lithium Ore - The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) (Li2O: 5.5% - 6%) is 764 yuan, with a daily increase of 14 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 1.5% - 2.0%) is 1080 yuan, with a daily increase of 40 yuan; the price of lithium mica (Li2O: 2.0% - 2.5%) is 1655 yuan, with a daily increase of 50 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 6% - 7%) is 5845 yuan; the price of amblygonite (Li2O: 7% - 8%) is 6800 yuan, with a daily increase of 475 yuan [1][2] Cathode Materials - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 32,690 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 25 yuan; the average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 143,450 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 300 yuan; the average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 115,945 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 100 yuan; the average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,875 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 200 yuan [2] Price Spreads - The difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1650 yuan/ton, with no change; the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 6130 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7200 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is - 180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 120 yuan; the difference between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 1040 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 143,170 tons, an increase of 550 tons; the inventory of smelters (weekly, tons) is 55,385 tons, a decrease of 2654 tons; the inventory of downstream (weekly, tons) is 42,815 tons, an increase of 1544 tons; the inventory of others (weekly, tons) is 44,970 tons, an increase of 1660 tons; the registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 11,654 tons, an increase of 900 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 68,690 yuan, and the profit is 910 yuan; the cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 74,022 yuan, and the profit is - 6048 yuan [3] Company News - Jiangte Motor's subsidiary, Yichun Yinli, plans to conduct equipment maintenance on its production line on July 25, 2025, with an estimated maintenance time of about 26 days [3]

Market Review - The closing price of SSE 50 was 2801.2002, up 0.32%, with a trading volume of 6.793 billion and a turnover of 130.89 billion yuan; the closing price of CSI 300 was 4119.7685, up 0.02%, with a trading volume of 30.051 billion and a turnover of 470.331 billion yuan; the closing price of CSI 1000 was 6607.22, down 0.45%, with a trading volume of 29.411 billion and a turnover of 378.33 billion yuan [4] - The option trading volume of SSE 50 was 5.54 million contracts (4.15 million call options and 1.39 million put options, PCR 0.34), and the open interest was 5.97 million contracts (3.86 million call options and 2.11 million put options, PCR 0.55); the option trading volume of CSI 300 was 13.33 million contracts (9.02 million call options and 4.31 million put options, PCR 0.48), and the open interest was 16.7 million contracts (9.78 million call options and 6.92 million put options, PCR 0.71); the option trading volume of CSI 1000 was 22.52 million contracts (13.56 million call options and 8.96 million put options, PCR 0.66), and the open interest was 22.54 million contracts (11.77 million call options and 10.77 million put options, PCR 0.92) [4] Overall Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.01% to 3582.3 points, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.37%, the ChiNext Index fell 0.01%, the CSI 300 rose 0.02%, the North Star 50 fell 1.58%, the STAR 50 rose 0.45%, the Wind All - A Index fell 0.28%, the Wind 8500 Index fell 0.1%, and the CSI A500 fell 0.1%. The total trading volume of A - shares throughout the day was 1.9 trillion yuan, compared with 1.93 trillion yuan the previous day [9][11]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro Finance**: - Stocks: Bullish [1] - Bonds: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Gold: Bullish [1] - Silver: Bullish in the short - term, cautious in the medium - term [1] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: - Copper: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Aluminum: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Alumina: Neutral (Wide - range oscillating) [1] - Zinc: Bullish [1] - Nickel: Bullish in the short - term, cautious in the long - term [1] - Stainless Steel: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Tin: Volatile in the short - term [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish [1] - Lithium Hydroxide: Bullish [1] - **Ferrous Metals**: - Rebar: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Hot - rolled Coil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Iron Ore: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Silicomanganese: Bullish [1] - Ferrosilicon: Bullish [1] - Glass: Bullish [1] - Soda Ash: Bullish [1] - Coking Coal: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Coke: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - **Agricultural Products**: - Palm Oil: Bullish, with risks [1] - Methanol: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Rapeseed Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Cotton: Bullish in the short - term, limited upside for 01 contract [1] - White Sugar: Bullish, limited upside [1] - Corn: Bearish for CO1, limited upside for C09 [1] - Soybean Meal: Bullish for M01 on pullbacks, limited upside for M09 [1] - Pulp: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Logs: Bullish in the short - term, not advisable to chase [1] - Live Pigs: Neutral (Stable) [1] - **Energy and Chemicals**: - Crude Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Fuel Oil: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Asphalt: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Natural Rubber: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - BR Rubber: Neutral (Oscillating with support) [1] - PTA: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Bullish [1] - Short - fiber: Bullish [1] - Styrene: Bullish [1] - Urea: Neutral (Oscillating) [1] - PF: Neutral (Oscillating downward) [1] - DO: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - PVC: Bullish (Oscillating upward) [1] - Caustic Soda: Bullish [2] - LPG: Bearish [2] - Shipping: Bearish [2] 2. Core Views - In the short term, stock indices are expected to be strong due to the "asset shortage" and "national team" support, as well as the boost from "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations. Bond futures are favored by the "asset shortage" and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts their upside. Gold and silver are expected to be strong in the short term due to market uncertainties [1]. - In the non - ferrous metals sector, "anti - involution" policies and other factors drive price movements. For example, zinc and stainless steel prices are rising, while nickel is strong in the short term but faces long - term over - supply pressure [1]. - In the ferrous metals sector, supply - side reforms drive the prices of many products such as silicomanganese, ferrosilicon, glass, and soda ash to be strong [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends. For example, corn has different strategies for different contracts, and soybean meal has different outlooks for M09 and M01 [1]. - In the energy and chemicals sector, factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors affect product prices. For example, styrene is bullish due to factors such as increased device load, while LPG is bearish due to high inventory and seasonal factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Stock Indices**: Recently, stock indices have shown obvious insensitivity to negative news, with strong trading volume and market sentiment. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support increase the willingness to allocate equity assets, and "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations boost market sentiment. In the short term, stock indices are expected to be strong [1]. - **Bond Futures**: The "asset shortage" and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts their upside [1]. - **Gold and Silver**: Market uncertainties remain, so the price of gold is expected to be strong and oscillating in the short term. Silver shows short - term resilience, but caution is needed in the medium term [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The "anti - involution" theme in China is volatile, and downstream demand is fair, so the copper price is oscillating upward [1]. - **Aluminum**: The "anti - involution" theme in China is emerging, but high prices suppress downstream demand, so the aluminum price may oscillate [1]. - **Alumina**: Alumina profits are expanding, with both supply and inventory increasing, and the price is oscillating widely [1]. - **Zinc**: The "anti - involution" and capacity - reduction themes in China are emerging, infrastructure demand is boosted, and the risk of LME zinc squeeze is increasing, so the zinc price is rising. Attention should be paid to LME warehouse receipts [1]. - **Nickel**: The "anti - involution" policy in China is emerging, and the macro - sentiment is positive. Indonesia's RKAB approval quota in the first half of the year reached 364 million wet tons, and the premium of Indonesian nickel ore has slightly declined. In the short term, the nickel price is mainly driven by the macro - situation and is oscillating upward. It is recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities after the sentiment calms down. In the long term, the over - supply of primary nickel still exerts pressure [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: The "anti - involution" policy in China is emerging, and the macro - sentiment is warming up, which boosts the steel price. The price of raw material ferronickel is weak, the social inventory of stainless steel is slightly decreasing, and after profit recovery, steel mills' production cuts may be less than expected. Attention should be paid to the actual production of steel mills. The stainless steel futures are oscillating upward. It is recommended to wait and see and look for positive arbitrage opportunities between futures and spot, and pay attention to raw material changes and steel mills' production schedules [1]. Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil**: Strong furnace materials provide valuation support, and the prices are oscillating [1]. - **Iron Ore**: Although the commodity sentiment is positive, the fundamentals are marginally weakening, and the price is oscillating [1]. - **Silicomanganese, Ferrosilicon, Glass, and Soda Ash**: Supply - side reforms are restarted, and the prices are mainly strong [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The "anti - involution" theme is mentioned in high - level meetings. Although it cannot be compared with the 2015 supply - side reform bull market, it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading aspect. Short - selling orders should be temporarily avoided, and industrial customers should seize the opportunity of premium to establish positive arbitrage positions between futures and spot. For coke, the key is to seize the opportunity of futures premium for short - selling hedging [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: There is an expectation of international demand growth, and the reference price in Malaysia is raised. The risk lies in the negative impact of increased production in the producing areas and weak exports [1]. - **Cotton**: Cotton has increased positions and prices in the short term, mainly driven by the logic of squeezing the 01 contract in the near - month. The upside of the 01 contract is limited. Attention should be paid to the time window from the end of July to the beginning of August and the release of sliding - scale tariff quotas [1]. - **White Sugar**: White sugar is running strongly, with the bottom - divergence rebound of raw sugar and peak - season demand, but the upside is limited. Attention should be paid to the oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [1]. - **Corn**: The supply - demand of old - crop corn is tightening, which supports the market, but the low price difference between wheat and corn squeezes the demand for corn. Under the pressure of high warehouse receipts, the rebound space of C09 is expected to be limited. The planting cost of new - season corn is reduced, and the production situation is good. It is recommended to short CO1 at high prices [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal is in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and the basis is expected to continue to be under pressure. In the short term, the spot lacks the conditions for a sharp rise. Under the low basis, the upside of M09 is expected to be limited. Supported by the import cost, it is recommended to wait for pullbacks to buy M01 [1]. - **Pulp and Logs**: Pulp has rebounded significantly due to the strong commodity sentiment. Currently, the basis of broad - leaf pulp has weakened to - 1400 yuan/ton, and it is not recommended to chase the rise. In the short term, the main trading logic of logs may shift to the "strong expectation" of the 09 contract. After a sharp rise, it is not recommended to chase the rise [1]. - **Live Pigs**: With the continuous restoration of live - pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The market expects sufficient inventory, and the futures are at a large discount to the spot. In the short term, the spot is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures remain stable [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Fuel Oil**: The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has cooled down, and the market has returned to the supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected, and short - term peak - season consumption in Europe and the United States provides support. The prices are oscillating [1]. - **Asphalt**: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and it follows the crude oil price. Cost disturbances and demand recovery balance each other, and the price fluctuation is limited [1]. - **Natural Rubber and BR Rubber**: For natural rubber, there are short - term rainfall disturbances in the producing areas, slow inventory reduction, and positive macro - sentiment in the market. For BR rubber, the cost of butadiene provides support, the fundamentals of synthetic rubber are stable, demand is weakening, the spot price is oscillating, and there will be some device maintenance of butadiene in the future with limited cargo supply, so the BR futures are expected to consolidate in stages and then have price support [1]. - **PTA**: PTA supply has shrunk, but the crude oil price remains strong. The downstream load of polyester remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle chips and short - fibers will enter the maintenance cycle. PTA ports have slightly reduced inventory, and the replenishment willingness of polyester is not high [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The coal price has risen slightly, the commodity sentiment is generally positive, overseas ethylene glycol device maintenance has been postponed, the supply has shrunk, and the market expects less arrival of goods in the future [1]. - **Short - fiber**: The registration volume of short - fiber warehouse receipts is small, and short - fiber factories' maintenance is increasing. Under the high basis, the cost of short - fiber is closely related [1]. - **Styrene**: The pure - benzene price has slightly declined, styrene sales are active, the device load of styrene has increased, the basis of styrene has significantly weakened, and there are many old - capacity issues in the pure - benzene and styrene industries [1]. - **Urea**: There is an expectation of supply contraction, and domestic demand has entered the off - season [1]. - **PF**: The macro - sentiment has faded, and it has returned to the fundamentals. There are many maintenance activities, demand is mainly for rigid needs, and the price is oscillating downward [1]. - **DO**: The downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, the supply pressure is increasing, and the price is oscillating upward [1]. - **PVC**: The prices of coking coal and other products have risen, the market sentiment is good, the maintenance has decreased compared with the previous period, and the price is oscillating upward [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Maintenance is approaching the end, the spot price has fallen to a low level, the premium of caustic soda delivery substitutes has increased, there are many coal policies, and the sentiment is positive [2]. - **LPG**: The support from crude oil is insufficient, the international fundamentals are loose, the port propane inventory is high, the CP - FEI spread has narrowed, the LPG combustion demand is in the seasonal off - season, the chemical demand is average, the spread between industrial and civil uses has narrowed, and the domestic LPG price is running weakly [2]. - **Shipping**: The signal of freight rate peaking is emerging, European ports are still congested, and there will be many scheduled ships in August [2].