Market Review - The closing prices, changes, trading volumes, and turnovers of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are 2684.7761 (0.41%, 42.96 billion shares, 720.36 billion yuan), 3857.9016 (0.29%, 133.80 billion shares, 2324.82 billion yuan), and 6078.2224 (1.31%, 193.56 billion shares, 2399.95 billion yuan) respectively [4] - The trading volumes and open interests of call and put options, as well as the PCR values for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 index options are presented [4] Volatility Analysis - The historical volatility chains and current values of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are analyzed, including minimum, maximum, and percentile values [8][9][10] - The volatility smile curves and next - month at - the - money implied volatilities for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 indices are shown [9][10] Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 21.68 points (0.65%) to 3381.58 with a turnover of 4427.89 billion yuan; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 43.36 points (0.43%) to 10048.39 with a turnover of 6798.4 billion yuan; the ChiNext Index rose 7.74 points (0.39%) to 2017.63 with a turnover of 3403.28 billion yuan; the CSI 300 rose 11.26 points (0.29%) to 3857.9 with a turnover of 2324.82 billion yuan [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Aluminum [1] - Bearish: Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Polysilicon, Carbonate Lithium, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Coking Coal, Coke [1] - Neutral: Stock Index, Treasury Bond, Gold, Silver, Copper, Alumina, Industrial Silicon, Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Glass, Soda Ash, Corn, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Live Pigs, Gasoline, Fuel Oil, Asphalt, BR Rubber, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Styrene, PVC, Calcined Anthracite, LPG, Container Shipping on the European Route [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term stock index is expected to show a weak and volatile pattern due to weak domestic fundamentals, a policy vacuum, and high overseas uncertainties. However, the decline space is limited under the background of "asset shortage" and "national team" support [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward space [1]. - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to uncertainties in the Middle East situation [1]. - The prices of various metals and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, inventory levels, geopolitical situations, and policy changes, showing different trends [1]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - The stock index is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term, with limited decline space. Bond futures are affected by asset shortage and weak economy, but the upward space is suppressed by interest rate risk warnings [1]. Precious Metals - Gold prices may remain high and volatile in the short term due to Middle East uncertainties. Silver prices are mainly volatile due to the game between macro and fundamentals [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices may remain high and volatile as copper inventories are expected to decline further. Aluminum prices are strong due to low inventory levels. Alumina prices are volatile, with the spot price falling and the futures price under pressure from increased production. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices are weakly volatile in the short term and pressured by long - term over - supply [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are in a window of switching from peak to off - peak seasons, with no upward driving force. Iron ore prices are affected by the expected peak of molten iron and supply increments in June. Coke and coking coal prices are bearish [1]. Agricultural Products - Sugar production in Brazil is expected to increase in the 2025/26 season. Corn prices are expected to be volatile, and soybean meal prices are expected to be volatile with different trends for different contracts. Cotton prices are expected to be weakly volatile [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil's impact on related products is complex. Products such as gasoline, fuel oil, and asphalt are affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, consumption seasons, and inventory levels. Chemical products like PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber are affected by geopolitical conflicts and supply - demand relationships [1].

国贸期货研究院 农产品研究中心 黄向岚 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 数据日报 | | 栏推断，生猪供应在11月前预期稳步增加，禽类存栏维持高位，豆粕性价比较高，饲用添比提升，提货居于高位，部分地区小麦替代玉 米,减少对蛋白的用量。豆脂远月基差成交放量。库存方面,截至上周五、国内大豆和豆瓣继续累库，目前大豆库存居于牙丈夫朋肩 | | --- | --- | | 11 | | | 结 | 位;豆粕库存仍然居于历史同期低位,饲料企业豆粕库存天数继续上升。 | | | 整体来说，美豆天气暂无炒作驱动，关注6月底种植面积报告对美豆面积的调整，美豆严衡表维持趋紧预期。中美现行政策下，远月 | | | 巴西陆水预期维持坚挺。随着下游补库的逐步完成。国内豆粕预期加速累牵，现货基差印然承压、预期NO9走势偏震荡,MI1、NO1在成本 | | | 支撑下预期震荡偏强。 | | | 本报告中的信息均源于公开可获得的资料，国贸期货力求准确可靠，但不对上述信息的准确性及完整性放任何保证。本报告不构 | | ਕਾ | 成个人投资建议,也未针对个别投资者特殊的投资日标、财务状况或需要，投资者需自行判断本报 ...

热评:本周央行公开市场有9603亿元逆回购到期,其中周二至周五分别到 期1973亿元、1563亿元、2035亿元、1612亿元。一年来,央行坚持支持性 的货币政策立场,从数量、价格、结构等方面,出台了多项货币政策措 施,有效支持了经济持续回升向好和金融市场的稳定。同时,央行完善货 币政策框架,优化货币政策中间变量,培育政策利率,提升货币政策传导 效率,丰富货币政策工具箱,做好政策沟通和预期引导。货币政策框架的 转型是一个渐进、持续的过程,未来央行还将不断地做好评估和完善。 | 品种 | 收盘价 | 较前一日变动 (%) | 品种 | 收盘价 | 我則一日受 动(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3858 | 0.29 | IF当月 | 3823 | 0.5 | | 上证50 | 2685 | 0.41 | IH当月 | 2654 | 0.7 | | 中证500 | 5674 | 0.61 | IC当月 | 5626 | 0.7 | | 中证1000 | 6078 | 1.31 | IM当月 | 6001 | 1.1 | | IF成交量 | ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View - The market is in a state of oscillation. Spot prices are showing an upward trend, with shipping companies gradually increasing their quotes. The forward freight rates in Europe continue to rise, and it is expected that the upward trend will continue until mid - to late July. The freight rates on the US route in the futures market declined last week, while the European route did not follow the decline due to its own peak - season pattern. For the European route freight rates from July to August, there are three possible scenarios: the spill - over of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors. In terms of trading strategies, attention should be paid to the potential logic of the second scenario, and a far - month positive spread strategy should be formulated with reference to historical delivery data [8][9]. 3. Key Points by Section Freight Index Data - **Spot Freight Index**: The current values of the Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) and the China Export Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) are 1870 and 1342 respectively, with the former down 10.47% and the latter up 8.00% compared to the previous values. The freight rates on different routes also show different trends, such as a significant decline on the US West and US East routes, and an increase on the European routes [4]. - **Forward Freight Index**: The current values of different forward contracts (e.g., EC2506, EC2508) show fluctuations, with some contracts down and some up compared to the previous values. The positions of different contracts also change, with some increasing and some decreasing [4]. - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The current values of the 10 - 12, 12 - 2, and 12 - 4 month - to - month spreads are 505.0, - 160.1, and 320.3 respectively, with corresponding changes compared to the previous values [4]. Spot Market - In late June, leading airlines are eager to raise prices. The offline quotes of COSCO, CMA, ONE, MSC, Maersk, and HPL are different, and the European base - port quotes in late June have reached 2,800 - 3,200 US dollars/40 - foot container, with the upward trend expected to continue until mid - to late July. The July quotes of different shipping companies are also different, and Maersk has adjusted the freight rate to Rotterdam in early July [8]. Futures Market - Last week, the freight rates on the US route in the futures market declined, while the European route did not follow the decline due to its peak - season pattern. The European route futures show a "front - running" characteristic, and there are three scenarios for the European route freight rates from July to August [8]. Trading Strategy - Currently, the ECO8 futures price is at a discount to the spot price. Attention should be paid to the potential logic of the second scenario. A far - month positive spread strategy should be formulated with reference to historical delivery data, and the 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [9][10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel market maintains a volatile state, lacking a clear price - rebound driver. The cost - collapse narrative of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a structure where futures are at a discount to spot, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - For coking coal and coke, the fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has increased. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited. It is recommended that industrial customers participate in hedging [6][7]. - Regarding ferrosilicon and silicomanganese, the steel tender prices have been finalized, and the prices are temporarily stable. The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and attention should be paid to the actions of alloy plants. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - In the iron ore market, the basis has rapidly shrunk. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage. If the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Futures and Spot Prices**: On June 23, the closing prices of far - month and near - month contracts of various steel products showed different changes in prices, increases, and decreases. The cross - month spreads, spreads/ratios/profits also had corresponding price changes [2]. - **Market Situation**: Futures prices fluctuated on Monday, and spot prices varied. The transaction volume rebounded to over 100,000 tons. The cost collapse of the black sector has become less smooth, and there is no strong rebound drive in the off - season. The steel basis is in a futures - at - discount - to - spot structure, and there may be an anti - arbitrage logic in the off - season [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading. For futures - spot trading, choose hot - rolled coils with better liquidity, conduct rolling hedging and open - position management, and rotate spot inventory. Pay attention to short - term spreads for arbitrage on the futures market [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Spot Market**: The fourth round of coke price cuts has been implemented, and the coking coal auction transaction rate has exceeded 90%. The prices of some coking coal varieties have rebounded, and the prices of Mongolian coal in some regions have changed. The port - traded quasi - first - grade coke is priced at 1140 (-10), and the coking coal price index is 937.6 (-1.2) [6]. - **Futures Market**: The black chain index continued to oscillate strongly. The coking coal price closed above the 800 mark, mainly affected by strict safety inspections in the main producing areas. Although the spot market sentiment is improving, the futures have already priced in a lot of rebound expectations, and the future price increase space is limited [6][7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Industrial customers are recommended to actively participate in hedging [7]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Tender Prices**: The new round of ferrosilicon tender price of a North China steel mill is 5500 yuan/ton (tax - included, ex - factory acceptance), a decrease of 300 yuan/ton compared to the previous round, with a purchase quantity of 290 tons. The June silicomanganese alloy tender price of a large North China steel mill is 5650 yuan/ton (acceptance), an increase of 150 yuan/ton compared to the inquiry price and a decrease of 200 yuan/ton compared to the May price, with a purchase quantity of 1700 tons, a 100 - ton increase compared to the previous month [7]. - **Market Situation**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, but market confidence has slightly stabilized. The supply - demand structure of silicomanganese is relatively loose, and the price decline space is limited [7]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold a long position in ferrosilicon and a short position in silicomanganese, and participate in single - side trading with options [7]. Iron Ore - **Basis and Transportation**: The basis has rapidly shrunk to 20 on Monday, and the optimal deliverable is brbf. Iron ore shipments are gradually increasing, and the port inventory has shifted from a slight de - stocking to a slight stocking stage [7]. - **Market Situation**: The spot price has fallen to narrow the basis. The molten iron output has slightly increased, and the steel mill inventory has significantly rebounded. Although the downstream steel demand in the off - season is better than expected, if the steel fundamentals continue to weaken, it is more likely that steel products will be weaker than iron ore [7].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - The conflict between the US and Iran and the conflict between Israel and other factors have led to concerns in the market, with expectations of continued oil price increases and the chemical industry as a whole following suit [2]. - PTA is expected to see inventory reduction in the future, and the actions of mainstream factories to increase basis sales have had a significant impact on the market, making PTA spot supplies tight. The polyester industry has rapidly reduced inventory recently, and the market's purchasing willingness has increased due to rising oil prices [2]. - For ethylene glycol, although the overall import volume from Iran is limited, the conflict has led to rising ethylene prices, strengthening the cost - side. Ethylene glycol continues the inventory reduction rhythm, but the recovery of coal - based ethylene glycol device loads exerts pressure on the market [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - **Crude Oil**: INE crude oil rose from 566.6 yuan/barrel on June 20, 2025, to 574.5 yuan/barrel on June 23, 2025, an increase of 7.9 yuan/barrel [2]. - **PX**: CFR China PX increased from 896 to 899, and the PX - naphtha spread rose from 250 to 253 [2]. - **PTA**: The PTA主力期价 increased from 4978 yuan/ton to 5012 yuan/ton, the spot price decreased from 5275 yuan/ton to 5260 yuan/ton, the spot processing fee increased from 390.3 yuan/ton to 393.0 yuan/ton, and the disk processing fee increased from 128.3 yuan/ton to 145.0 yuan/ton [2]. - **MEG**: The MEG主力期价 remained unchanged at 4501 yuan/ton, the MEG - naphtha spread decreased slightly from (138.46) to (138.65), and the MEG internal price increased from 4594 to 4597 [2]. - **Polyester Products**: The prices of POY, FDY, DTY, 1.4D direct - spun polyester staple fiber, and semi - bright chips all increased to varying degrees, and the cash flows of most products improved [2]. Industry Chain Operating Conditions - **PX**: The operating rate remained at 82.70% [2]. - **PTA**: The operating rate remained at 78.56% [2]. - **MEG**: The operating rate increased from 57.91% to 58.33%, an increase of 0.42 percentage points [2]. - **Polyester Load**: It decreased slightly from 90.16% to 90.10% [2]. Device Maintenance Dynamics - A 1.5 - million - ton PTA device in East China has restarted after being shut down for maintenance around May 6, and a 3 - million - ton PTA device has recently shut down for maintenance, with an expected maintenance period of about 10 days [2].

Report Information - Report Title: Index Option Data Daily Report [4] - Date: June 23, 2025 [4] - Author: Li Zebao from the Financial Derivatives Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] - Data Sources: Wind, Guomao Futures Research Institute [4] Market Review Index Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.07% to 3359.9 points; the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.47% to 10005.03 points; the ChiNext Index declined 0.84% to 2009.89 points; the CSI 300 rose 0.09% to 3846.64 points; the STAR 50 decreased 0.53% to 957.87 points; the Beijing Stock Exchange 50 tumbled 1.34% to 1347.46 points [12] - The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1.07 trillion yuan, with more falling stocks than rising ones and over 3600 stocks declining across the market [12] Index Option Trading | Index | Closing Price | Change (%) | Turnover (Billion Yuan) | Volume (Billion) | Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Call Option Volume (Million Contracts) | Put Option Volume (Million Contracts) | PCR (Volume) | Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Call Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | Put Option Open Interest (Million Contracts) | PCR (Open Interest) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SSE 50 | 2673.7191 | 0.31 | 631.62 | 36.32 | 2.85 | 1.58 | 1.27 | 0.80 | 3.97 | 2.34 | 1.64 | 0.70 | | CSI 300 | 3846.6443 | 0.09 | 2135.23 | 118.15 | 7.71 | 4.12 | 3.59 | 0.87 | 11.86 | 7.24 | 4.62 | 0.64 | | CSI 1000 | 5999.5914 | -0.80 | 2265.32 | 180.86 | 22.12 | 11.11 | 11.01 | 0.99 | 17.95 | 9.84 | 8.11 | 0.82 | [5] Volatility Analysis - The report provides historical volatility cones, current volatility values, and volatility smile curves for SSE 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000, as well as next - month at - the - money implied volatility [9][10]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【玻璃纯碱（ 】 信心稍有回暖，基本面延续承压 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-23 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.54万吨，比12日-0.16%。行业开工率为75.34%，比12日-0.08个百分点；行业产能利用率为77.7%， | | | | 比12日+0.22个百分点。本周供应面增减并存，增量方面，1条前期点火产线开始出玻璃，减量方面，一条产线放水叠加一条产线热修，周度供 | | | | 应量环比小幅上涨。下周2条前期点火产线或将开始出玻璃，另有1条产线存在放水预期，预计下周周度产量环比小幅减少。 | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The U.S. soybean supply - demand balance sheet is expected to tighten; under the current Sino - U.S. trade policy, the Brazilian premium is firm; domestic demand provides support. The inventory accumulation speed of soybean meal is slow, but the crushing margin is good and ship purchases continue. The soybeans corresponding to I09 have basically completed procurement. As downstream replenishment is gradually completed, soybean meal is expected to accelerate inventory accumulation later. It is expected that I09 will trend sideways. M11 and M01 are expected to maintain a sideways - to - bullish trend supported by import costs. Attention should be paid to the results of the end - of - month USDA planting area report [7][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans in June, July, and August is expected to exceed 10 million tons each month. The current ship - buying progress is 100% for July, 66.8% for August, and 25.3% for September. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop U.S. soybeans tends to tighten, with the excellent - good rate dropping to 60%, lower than the same period last year. The Midwest production areas of U.S. soybeans will be slightly dry in the next two weeks, but the dryness will not last long and there is no speculation driver for now [7]. Demand - Judging from the livestock inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November; the poultry inventory remains at a high level; soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, the feed addition ratio has increased, and the提货 volume is at a high level; in some areas, wheat replaces corn, reducing the use of protein, and the trading volume of the far - month basis of soybean meal fluctuates [8]. Inventory - The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, and the soybean meal inventory has increased slightly but is still at a low level. The inventory accumulation speed is slower than expected, but there is an expectation of accelerated inventory accumulation later. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises has increased slightly but is still low [8].