投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期 权数据日报 主能介于品中心 =: F0251925 力史波动率链 醫小值 - 最大值 -- 10%分位值 30%分位值 -- 60%分位值 · 当前值 90%分位值 2025/6/25 数据来源: Wind,国贸期货研究院 | | | | | 行情回顾 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指数 | 收盘价 | | 张肤帽(%) | | 成交额(亿元) | | 成交里(亿) | | | 上证50 | 2715. 9216 | | 1.16 | | 890. 75 | | 49. 03 | | | 沪深300 | 3904. 0342 | | 1.20 | | 2942. 29 | | 163. 66 | | | 中证1000 | 6194. 666 | | 1.92 | | 3036. 58 | | 233. 45 | | | | | | | 中金所股指期权成交情况 | | | | | | 指数 | 期权成交望 | 认购期权 | 认沽期权 | 日成交里 ...

7000 1000 6000 800 5000 600 4000 400 3000 2000 1000 -200 | 螺纹基差(右轴) = 价格:螺纹钢:HRB400 20mm:上海 - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):螺纹钢 8000 800 600 6000 400 200 2000 -200 | 2025/06/25 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 (元/吨) | RB2601 | HC2601 | < 12601 | J2601 | JM2601 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 6月24日 25 | 2977.00 | 3099.00 | 676. 50 | 1399. ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Geopolitical conflicts have eased, and crude oil prices have dropped significantly. The good rate of US soybeans remains at 66%, and the weather in the production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks. As the downstream inventory gradually rises, the domestic soybean meal inventory accumulation rate is expected to accelerate. The spot basis is still under pressure. The short - term 109 trend is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the results of the planting area report at the end of the month [7][8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread Data - On June 24, the basis of the soybean meal main contract in Dalian was 13, down 10; in Tianjin, it was - 87. The spot basis of 43% soybean meal in Rizhao was - 137, down 20; in Zhangjiagang, it was - 117, down 20; in Dongguan, it was - 157, down 40; in Zhanjiang, it was - 97, down 20; in Fangcheng, it was - 137, down 40. The spot basis of rapeseed meal in Guangdong was - 62, down 5. The M9 - M1 spread and other data are also presented in the table [6] - The spot price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 375, down 5; the price difference on the main contract was 280, down 40. The RM9 - 1 spread was 288, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal was also presented in the form of a graph [7] Supply Situation - In China, the arrival volume of Brazilian soybeans is expected to exceed 10 million tons in June, July, and August. As of now, the purchase progress for July is 100%, 66.8% for August, and 25.3% for September. The supply - demand balance sheet of new - crop US soybeans is tightening, and the good rate of US soybeans has dropped to 66%, lower than the same period last year. The weather in the US soybean production areas will be favorable for soybean growth in the next two weeks [7] Demand Situation - Judging from the inventory, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase steadily before November, and the poultry inventory remains at a high level. Soybean meal has a high cost - performance ratio, and its proportion in feed has increased, with high提货 volumes. In some areas, wheat has replaced corn, reducing the demand for protein. The trading volume of soybean meal and far - month basis has increased [7][8] Inventory Situation - As of last Friday, domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories continued to accumulate. Currently, soybean inventory is at a high level compared to the same period in history, while soybean meal inventory is still at a low level compared to the same period in history. The number of days of soybean meal inventory in feed enterprises continues to rise [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate futures price is expected to decline in the short term, and there is a possibility of a negative feedback loop between the lithium carbonate price and the ore price in the later stage [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lithium Compound Prices - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price is 59,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price is 58,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] Lithium Futures Prices - Lithium carbonate 2507 closed at 61,020 yuan/ton, up 2.01% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2508 closed at 60,900 yuan/ton, up 2.66% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2509 closed at 60,700 yuan/ton, up 3.06% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2510 closed at 60,580 yuan/ton, up 3.17% [1] - Lithium carbonate 2511 closed at 60,500 yuan/ton, up 3.28% [1] Lithium Ore Prices - Lithium spodumene concentrate (CIF China) price is 617 yuan/ton, unchanged [1] - Lithium mica (Li20: 1.5% - 2.0%) price is 665 yuan/ton [2] - Lithium mica (Li20: 2.0% - 2.5%) price is 1190 yuan/ton [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 6% - 7%) price is 5225 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan/ton [2] - Phosphorus lithium aluminum stone (Li20: 7% - 8%) price is 6075 yuan/ton, down 390 yuan/ton [2] Cathode Material Prices - The average price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 30,160 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 811 (polycrystalline/power type) is 142,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 523 (single - crystal/power type) is 114,175 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2] - The average price of ternary material 613 (single - crystal/power type) is 120,375 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Price Spreads - The price spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 1600 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between battery - grade lithium carbonate and the main contract is - 800 yuan/ton, down 1630 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract is 120 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton [2] - The price spread between the near - month and the second - continuous contract is 320 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton [2] Inventory - The total inventory (weekly, tons) is 134,901 tons, up 1352 tons [2] - The smelter inventory (weekly, tons) is 58,625 tons, up 972 tons [2] - The downstream inventory (weekly, tons) is 40,366 tons, down 320 tons [2] - The other inventory (weekly, tons) is 35,910 tons, up 700 tons [2] - The registered warehouse receipts (daily, tons) is 22,375 tons, down 4404 tons [2] Profit Estimation - The cash cost of purchasing lithium spodumene concentrate is 60,012 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 948 yuan/ton [3] - The cash cost of purchasing lithium mica concentrate is 64,430 yuan/ton, and the profit is - 6856 yuan/ton [3] Industry News - Zimbabwe will ban the export of lithium concentrate from 2027 to promote local processing [3]

直纺短纤负荷(周) 88. 90% 91. 30% 0. 02 涤纶短纤产销 53.00% 27.00% -26. 00% 涤纱开机率(周) 67.00% 67.00% 0. 00 再生棉型负荷指数(周) 50. 40% 50. 40% 0. 00 涤纶短纤与纯涤纱价格 涤纶短纤现金流 14000 10000 10000 1800 (探偵) 太原始欲德 t T325年演出 (群炉) 图片员22日 短规金流 ·1.4D直线条短 9000 9000 13000 1400 8000 8000 12000 1000 7000 7000 6000 11000 600 6000 5000 10000 200 5000 4000 -200 9000 + 3000 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 2021-01-01 2022-01-01 2023-01-01 2024-01-01 2025-01-01 涤棉纱65/35 45S价格与利润 中空短纤价格与现金流 2500 10000 22500 4000 泽梯少利润 泽棉纱65/35 45S 中空短 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The current ECO8 contract is trading at a discount to the spot price, and attention should be paid to the potential logic of scenario two. This year, European route trading tends to follow a cycle of "front - running - logic reinforcement - losses." It is recommended to value the "fault - tolerance" space of far - month contracts, formulate far - month positive spreading strategies based on historical delivery data, and avoid over - relying on short - term sentiment. The core is to first grasp marginal changes and then determine the trend direction. The 12 - 4 positive spread should be held [8][9] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Shipping Derivatives Data - **Freight Index**: The current value of the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) is 1870, down 10.47% from the previous value; the China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) is 1342, up 8.00%. SCFI - US West is 2772, down 32.72%; SCFIS - US West is 2083, down 28.37%; SCFI - US East is 5352, down 20.65%; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1835, down 0.49%. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1937, up 14.14%; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3063, down 3.98% [4] - **Forward Contracts**: For EC series contracts, such as EC2506, the current value is 1888.1, up 0.27% from the previous value; EC2508 is 1772.0, down 5.49%. In terms of positions, EC2506's current position is 2776, a decrease of 585 from the previous value; EC2508's current position is 44791, a decrease of 2262 [4] - **Monthly Spread**: The current value of the 10 - 12 monthly spread is 467.4, a decrease of 37.6 from the previous value; the 12 - 2 monthly spread is - 152.9, an increase of 7.2; the 12 - 4 monthly spread is 306.5, a decrease of 13.8 [4] 2. Market Review - **Spot Market**: In late June, leading airlines were eager to raise prices. COSCO's offline quote was 4200, CMA's was 4250, ONE's was 3000, MSC proposed a price increase to 3900 with an offline price of 3260. The spot freight rate continued to rise this week, and the quotes for European base ports in late June reached 2800 - 3200 US dollars/40 - foot container. The price increase is expected to continue until mid - to - late July. In early July, WSK reported a price of 3400, HPL reported 4350, CMA reported 4650, and ONE reported 4000 [7] - **Futures Market**: Last week, the US route freight rate declined, but the European route did not follow due to its own peak - season pattern. European route futures showed a "front - running" characteristic. For the European route freight rate from July to August, there are three scenarios: the overflow of US route capacity, shipping companies controlling capacity to stabilize prices, and interference from unexpected factors [7]

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号: Z0017251 | 2025/6/25 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | 2025/6/23 | 2025/6/24 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | SC | INE原油(元/桶) | 574.5 | 518. 6 | -55. 90 | 成交情况: PTA: PTA行情下跌,地缘局势缓和,原油价格跌幅明 | | | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 837. 1 | 1007. 3 | 170. 23 | 显,利空PTA市场,PTA行情下跌。PTA现货货少利好仍 | | | | | | | 在,支撑现货基差。 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 2005 | 1. 2673 | 0. 0668 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 899 | 859 | -40 | | | | PX-石脑油价差 | 2 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Views - In the bond market, the central bank conducted 4065 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations yesterday, with 1973 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing. On June 25, it will conduct 3000 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. The central bank adheres to a supportive monetary policy stance, and the transformation of the monetary policy framework is a continuous process [4]. - In the stock index market, due to the easing of the geopolitical conflict between Iran and Israel and the expectation of expanded market liquidity, the stock index rose with heavy volume yesterday, and the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high of 3417. In the short term, the market liquidity is acceptable, and with the alleviation of macro - negatives, the stock index is expected to run strongly [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bond Market - **Price and Change**: DRO01 closed at 1.37 with a 0.04 bp change, DR007 at 1.67 with a 16.09 bp change, GC001 at 1.60 with a 7.50 bp change, GC007 at 1.90 with a 12.00 bp change, SHBOR 3M at 1.63 with no change, LPR 5 - year at 3.50 with no change, 1 - year treasury at 1.36 with a 0.71 bp change, 5 - year treasury at 1.52 with a 0.97 bp change, 10 - year treasury at 1.65 with a 0.80 bp change, and 10 - year US treasury at 4.34 with a - 4.00 bp change [4]. - **Market Operation**: This week, there are 9603 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing in the central bank's open market, with 1563 billion, 2035 billion, and 1612 billion yuan maturing from Wednesday to Friday respectively. The central bank governor said that the central bank has introduced multiple monetary policy measures in the past year [4]. Stock Index Market - **Index Price and Change**: At yesterday's close, the CSI 300 rose 1.2% to 3904, the SSE 50 rose 1.16% to 2715.9, the CSI 500 rose 1.62% to 5765.8, and the CSI 1000 rose 1.92% to 6194.7. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets reached 14146 billion yuan, a significant increase of 2920 billion yuan from the previous day [5]. - **Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors rose. The motor, battery, auto parts, game, and packaging materials sectors led the gains, while the mining, petroleum, gas, shipping port, and precious metals sectors led the losses [5]. - **Contract Information**: The trading volume and open interest of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts all increased. The IF contract had a trading volume increase of 22.6% and an open interest increase of 4.3%, the IH contract had a trading volume increase of 14.9% and an open interest increase of 3.2%, the IC contract had a trading volume increase of 23.3% and an open interest increase of 3.1%, and the IM contract had a trading volume increase of 16.6% and an open interest increase of 1.6%. The IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts also have different levels of premium and discount rates [5]. - **Market Driver**: The rapid reversal of the Iran - Israel situation and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US led to the rise of the stock index with heavy volume. The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The pulp market shows a narrow inventory accumulation trend. After the suspension of needle pulp warehousing, it is recommended to conduct a 11 - 1 reverse spread strategy [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Data - On June 24, 2025, SP2601 futures price was 5350, down 2.27% day - on - day and up 2.33% week - on - week; SP2507 was 5130, down 2.25% day - on - day and 1.72% week - on - week; SP2509 was 5136, down 2.69% day - on - day and 1.50% week - on - week [1] - Spot prices: coniferous pulp Silver Star was 6000, down 0.83% day - on - day and week - on - week; Russian Needle was 5150, down 2.83% day - on - day and 1.90% week - on - week; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4050, down 1.22% day - on - day and week - on - week [1] - Outer - disk quotes: Chilean Silver Star was 740 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Star was 560 dollars, unchanged; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged. Import costs were also unchanged [1] Fundamental Data Supply - In April 2025, coniferous pulp imports were 75.8 tons, down 5.01% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp imports were 119.9 tons, down 18.44% month - on - month. The pulp shipment volume to China was 1353 tons, down 30.80% [1] - Domestic production: broadleaf pulp production on June 19, 2025 was 20.9 tons; chemimechanical pulp was 19.9 tons [1] Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 220.8 tons, up 2.3 tons from the previous period, a 1.1% increase [1] - Delivery warehouse inventory on June 19, 2025 was 23.53 tons [1] Demand - Output of finished paper decreased this week. Double - offset paper output was 19.50 tons; coated paper was 7.70 tons; toilet paper was 27.40 tons; white cardboard was 29.50 tons [1] Valuation Data - On June 24, 2025, the basis of Russian Needle was 14, with a quantile level of 0.739; the basis of Silver Star was 864, with a quantile level of 0.972 [1] - Import profit: coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 46, with a quantile level of 0.53; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was - 537, with a quantile level of 0.188 [1] Supply and Demand Situation - Supply side: Chilean Arauco announced the June 2025 wood pulp outer - disk prices. Coniferous pulp Silver Star was 740 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged; broadleaf pulp had no supply in June, and partial supply was expected to resume in July (limited quantity); natural pulp Venus was 620 dollars/ton (face price), unchanged [1] - Demand side: The output of major finished paper decreased this week, and the prices of finished paper remained low, providing weak support for pulp [1]

日期 日期 美元指数 美债2年期收益率 美债10年期收益率 美元/人民币中间价 VIX 标普500 NYMEX原油 2025/6/24 7.17 2025/6/23 98. 38 3. 84 4. 34 19. 83 6025. 17 67.23 棋率/汇 至/ 版面 2025/6/23 7.17 2025/6/20 98.76 3.90 4. 38 20. 62 5967. 84 74. 04 涨跌幅 -0. 08% 流改幅 -0. 39% -0. 91% -3. 83% -9. 20% -1. 54% 0. 96% 1,000 16,000 3,700 120 110 950 15,000 100 90 2.700 14,000 图表分析 13,000 12,000 DMEX全银比价(收益价) 1、据沙特阿拉伯卫星电视台24日最新消息，以色列总理内塔尼亚胡当地时间24日宣布与伊朗停火。 伊朗国家电视台24日正式发布消息称，伊朗对以色列停火。（参 (来源:用考消息)。以防长:伊朗违反停火协议 将对德黑兰市中心进行"猛烈打击"。 2、美联储理事鲍曼: 如果通胀仍然受抑,可能会支持美联储在7月降息。如果通胀继续 ...