Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Gold: Inflation is moderately declining [2]. - Silver: Undergoing high - level adjustment [2]. - Copper: The strengthening of LME spot prices supports the price [2]. - Zinc: Showing a tendency of oscillating upward [2]. - Lead: Inventory increase is pressuring the price [2]. - Tin: Supply is facing new disturbances [2]. - Aluminum: Exhibiting a strong - side oscillation [2]. - Alumina: Continuing to bottom - out [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Following the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals restrict its elasticity, but attention should be paid to the policy risks in Indonesia [2]. Summary of Each Section 1. Gold and Silver Fundamental Data - **Price**: Shanghai Gold 2602 closed at 984.84 with a daily decline of 2.22%; Comex Gold 2602 closed at 4352.30 with a daily increase of 0.05%. Shanghai Silver 2602 closed at 18140 with a daily decline of 0.35%; Comex Silver 2602 closed at 76.015 with a daily increase of 6.11% [4]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of Shanghai Gold 2602 was 391,541, an increase of 46,319 from the previous day, and the open interest was 144,462, a decrease of 21,562. The trading volume of Shanghai Silver 2602 was 1,127,485, a decrease of 315,320, and the open interest was 195,074, a decrease of 30,842 [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai Gold was 97,704 kg, unchanged from the previous day; the inventory of Comex Gold (in troy ounces) was 36,223,374, an increase of 32,119. The inventory of Shanghai Silver was 755,754 kg, a decrease of 40,985 [4]. - **Spread**: The spread between Gold T + D and AU2602 was - 2.64, unchanged from the previous day; the spread between Silver T + D and AG2602 was - 592, a decrease of 442 from the previous day [4]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, while some advocate keeping rates unchanged for "some time" [4]. - Reportedly, OPEC + is likely to maintain the suspension of the production - increase plan this week due to significant supply - surplus pressure [6]. - China has advanced the plan of issuing the first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs. The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted [6]. - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [6]. - The Central Rural Work Conference emphasized strengthening research on key core agricultural technologies and efficient transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and developing new high - quality agricultural productivity according to local conditions [6]. - Li Qiang proposed to refine taxpayers and the scope of taxation and determine calculation methods for taxable amounts in different situations [6]. Trend Strength - Gold trend strength: 0; Silver trend strength: 0 [6] 2. Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai copper main contract closed at 98,090 with a daily decline of 0.78%, and the night - session closing price was 99,220 with a rise of 1.15%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 12,674 with a daily increase of 4.02% [7]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 832,280, a decrease of 142,367 from the previous day, and the open interest was 625,625, a decrease of 17,019. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 30,309, a decrease of 34,327, and the open interest was 342,000, an increase of 1,036 [7]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 71,738 tons, an increase of 5,860 tons; the LME copper inventory was 149,475 tons, a decrease of 5,100 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 26.21%, a decrease of 2.31% [7]. - **Spread**: The LME copper cash - to - 3M spread was 31.35, an increase of 11.66 from the previous day; the spot - to - near - month futures spread of Shanghai copper was - 240, an increase of 90 [7]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [7]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [7]. - The Peruvian Congress approved a one - year extension of the temporary licenses for small - scale miners until the end of 2026 [7]. - From January to November 2025, Kazakhstan's refined copper production increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons [9]. - In November 2025, China's imports of copper ore and concentrates were 2.53 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13% [9]. - The Chilean government initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine. Workers will prepare for a strike if the negotiation fails [9]. - On December 29, the main project construction and core equipment installation of the second - phase expansion project of the Julong Copper Mine were completed and successfully test - run, a key step before production [9]. Trend Strength - Copper trend strength: 1 [9] 3. Zinc Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai zinc main contract closed at 23,380 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.54%, and the LME zinc 3M electronic disk closed at 3,083.5 US dollars/ton with a daily decline of 0.10% [10]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai zinc main contract was 148,502 lots, a decrease of 94,405 lots; the open interest was 93,470 lots, a decrease of 217 lots. The trading volume of the LME zinc was 13,418 lots, an increase of 7,474 lots, and the open interest was 232,259 lots, an increase of 4,129 lots [10]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 0 zinc premium was 120 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 30 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.74 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 42,387 tons, an increase of 1,403 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,325 tons, a decrease of 225 tons [10]. News - The 2026 national subsidy plan has new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The subsidy for new cars is 12% or 10% of the car price, with the upper limit remaining the same as in 2025. The subsidy range for home appliances has been reduced, and the subsidy ratio for first - grade energy - efficient home appliances has decreased from 20% to 15%, with the maximum subsidy per appliance dropping from 2,000 yuan to 1,500 yuan [11]. - The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [11]. Trend Strength - Zinc trend strength: 1 [13] 4. Lead Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai lead main contract closed at 17,505 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.09%, and the LME lead 3M electronic disk closed at 2,010.5 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 0.55% [14]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 69,782 lots, a decrease of 14,987 lots; the open interest was 53,891 lots, a decrease of 584 lots. The trading volume of the LME lead was 9,284 lots, an increase of 5,478 lots, and the open interest was 178,618 lots, an increase of 644 lots [14]. - **Spread and Inventory**: The Shanghai 1 lead premium was 0 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M spread was - 43.7 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.89 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 13,111 tons, an increase of 1,528 tons; the LME lead inventory was 245,275 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [14]. News - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [15]. - The 2026 national subsidy plan has been released, with new smart products added, home decoration and electric bicycles removed, and subsidy standards for home appliances and cars adjusted. The first batch of 625 billion yuan of ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2026 to support consumer goods trade - in programs has been advanced [15]. Trend Strength - Lead trend strength: 0 [15] 5. Tin Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 326,330 yuan/ton with a daily decline of 2.47%, and the LME tin 3M electronic disk closed at 42,195 US dollars/ton with a daily increase of 5.46% [17]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai tin main contract was 441,257 lots, a decrease of 12,067 lots, and the open interest was 43,769 lots, a decrease of 6,392 lots. The trading volume of the LME tin 3M electronic disk was 180 lots, a decrease of 9 lots, and the open interest was 13,988 lots, an increase of 53 lots [17]. - **Inventory and Spread**: The Shanghai tin inventory was 7,772 tons, a decrease of 133 tons; the LME tin inventory was 5,330 tons, an increase of 185 tons, and the cancelled warrant ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38%. The SMM 1 tin ingot price was 339,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 800 yuan/ton [17]. News - Similar to the news in the gold and silver section, including Fed rate - cut expectations, OPEC + production - plan news, China's subsidy and bond - issuance news, etc. [18] Trend Strength - Tin trend strength: 1 [19] 6. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy Fundamental Data - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 22,565 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum 3M closed at 2,987 US dollars/ton, an increase of 38 US dollars/ton. The Shanghai aluminum main - contract trading volume was 369,628 lots, a decrease of 248,997 lots, and the open interest was 267,707 lots, a decrease of 21,548 lots [20]. - **Alumina**: The Shanghai alumina main contract closed at 2,751 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume was 699,429 lots, a decrease of 609,434 lots, and the open interest was 404,205 lots, an increase of 7,530 lots [20]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The aluminum alloy main contract closed at 21,475 yuan/ton, a decrease of 115 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 9,685 lots, an increase of 546 lots, and the open interest was 15,866 lots, an increase of 9,810 lots [20]. News - Starting next year, individuals selling homes purchased over two years ago will be exempt from value - added tax [22]. - Most Fed officials expect it to be appropriate to continue cutting interest rates after December, and most participants believe that if inflation declines as expected, further rate cuts may be appropriate [22]. Trend Strength - Aluminum trend strength: 1; Alumina trend strength: 0; Aluminum alloy trend strength: 1 [22] 7. Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Price**: The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 132,390 yuan/ton, an increase of 6,680 yuan/ton; the stainless - steel main contract closed at 13,090 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton [24]. - **Volume**: The trading volume of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 1,000,602 lots, an increase of 215,362 lots; the trading volume of the stainless - steel main contract was 298,305 lots, an increase of 33,281 lots [24]. - **Industry - Chain Data**: The price of 1 imported nickel was 129,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 700 yuan/ton; the price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron (ex - factory price) was 913 yuan/ton, an increase of 2 yuan/ton [24]. News - In September, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over more than 148 hectares of the PT Weda Bay Nickel mining area, which is expected to affect nickel production by about 600 metal tons per month [24]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [25]. - The Indonesian government has sanctioned 190 mining companies for failing to provide claim and refund guarantees [25]. - The Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval procedure for mines in 2026 [26]. - Trump claimed to impose an additional 100% tariff on China and implement export controls on "all key software" starting from November 1 [26]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses for certain nickel products [27]. - Safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks have affected the production of some nickel wet - process projects, with an expected impact of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [27]. - In November, New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran made dovish remarks, increasing the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [27]. - China will implement export - license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel ore products in early 2026 and will levy royalties on cobalt as an independent commodity [27]. - The Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the nickel - ore production target in 2026 from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [28]. - Fifty Indonesian nickel - mining enterprises face potential fines of about 80.2 trillion Indonesian rupiah for illegal occupation of forest land [28]. Trend Strength - Nickel trend strength: 0; Stainless - steel trend strength: 0 [29]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The short - fiber and bottle - chip markets are expected to be in a high - level shock state as of December 31, 2025. The short - fiber futures showed a relatively strong shock, and the bottle - chip market's trading atmosphere slightly recovered with upstream raw materials rising [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Short - fiber**: For short - fiber futures, the prices of short - fiber 2601, 2602, and 2603 were 6700, 6564, and 6556 respectively, with changes of 18, 24, and - 104 compared to the previous day. The short - fiber主力持仓量 increased by 35898 to 223942, and the主力成交量 decreased by 12854 to 185172. The short - fiber华东现货价格 rose by 10 to 6.540, and the short - fiber产销率 increased by 1% to 55% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: For bottle - chip futures, the prices of bottle - chip 2601, 2602, and 2603 were 5850, 6040, and 6050 respectively, with changes of 62, 18, and 22 compared to the previous day. The bottle - chip主力持仓量 increased by 1087 to 39111, and the主力成交量 decreased by 23164 to 45895. The bottle - chip华东现货 price and bottle - chip华南现货 price remained unchanged at 6035 and 6080 respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot News - **Short - fiber**: The short - fiber futures were in a relatively strong shock. The factory's spot quotes remained stable, with the semi - bright 1.4D mainstream quotes in the range of 6650 - 6700. The trading volume was still low, and the downstream purchased on demand. As of 3:00 pm, the average sales - to - production ratio was 55% [1]. - **Bottle - chip**: The upstream raw materials fluctuated and closed higher. The polyester bottle - chip factory quotes were mostly stable. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market slightly recovered, and the orders from December to February were mostly traded at 6000 - 6100 yuan/ton ex - factory, with some slightly lower at 5960 - 5980 yuan/ton ex - factory [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The short - fiber trend intensity and bottle - chip trend intensity were both 0, indicating a neutral state for the day - session main - contract futures price fluctuations on the report day [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The subsidy for the new-for-old replacement of lithium carbonate meets expectations, and the power demand still has support [1] - The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice on implementing large-scale equipment updates and new-for-old replacement policies for consumer goods in 2026, with support for automobile scrapping and replacement updates, including different subsidy standards for purchasing new energy and fuel vehicles [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 119,540 yuan, the trading volume is 9,368 lots, and the open interest is 15,739 lots; for the 2605 contract, the closing price is 121,580 yuan, the trading volume is 459,530 lots, and the open interest is 511,309 lots [1] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 19,491 lots, with an increase of 1,300 lots compared to the previous day [1] - **Basis**: The basis between the spot and the 2601 contract is -1,540 yuan, and the basis between the 2601 and 2605 contracts is -2,040 yuan [1] - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 1,545 US dollars, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 3,400 yuan [1] - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan, and the price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan [1] - **Related Products in the Industrial Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 45,220 yuan, and the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 166,450 yuan [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery-grade lithium carbonate index price is 115,809 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,204 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery-grade lithium carbonate is 118,000 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial-grade lithium carbonate is 115,000 yuan/ton, both remaining unchanged from the previous working day [2] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral stance [3]

2025 年 12 月 31 日 花生：节前减仓 尹恺宜 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019456 yinkaiyi@gtht.com 花生基本面数据 | | | | | 昨日价格 | 价格变动 0 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 重要现货 | 辽宁308通货 | 元/吨 | | 9,400 | | | | 价 格 | 河南白沙通货 | 元/吨 | | 7,300 | 0 | | | | 兴城小日本 | 元/吨 | | 8,600 | 0 | | | | 苏丹精米 | 元/吨 | | 8,650 | 0 | | | | | 单 位 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌% | | | | PK601 | 元/吨 | | 8,078 | 0.05 | | | | PK603 | 元/吨 | | 7,942 | -0.33 | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期 货 | PK601 | 手 | 1,633 | 899 | 12,251 | -1347 | | | PK603 | 手 | 118,535 ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 合成橡胶基本面数据 合成橡胶：高位回落 | 项目 | | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 顺丁橡胶主力 （02合约） | 日盘收盘价 | （元/吨） | 11,565 | 11,600 | -35 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 121,267 | 152,140 | -30873 | | | | 持仓量 | （手） | 49,563 | 59,203 | -9640 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 700,548 | 884,041 | -183493 | | 价差数据 | 基差 | 山东顺丁-期货主力 | | -115 | -150 | 35 | | | 月差 | BR02-BR05 | | -65 | -30 | -35 | | 现货市场 | 顺丁价格 | 华北顺丁 | （民营） | 11,000 | 11,000 | | | | | 华东顺丁 | ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 棕榈油：短期节奏反弹，驱动不强 豆油：单边区间为主，关注月差机会 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,658 | 涨跌幅 1.72% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,644 | 涨跌幅 -0.16% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,878 | 0.77% | 7,886 | 0.10% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,086 | 0.51% | 9,098 | 0.13% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,071 | 0.54% | 4,065 | -0.12% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.39 | 0.20% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 358,771 | 5 | 388,850 | -7,197 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 209,400 | 2,251 ...

2025 年 12 月 31 日 焦炭：四轮提降开启，高位震荡 焦煤：年底减产扰动，高位震荡 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023649 liuyuwu2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2605 | 1119.5 | 31.5 | 2.9% | | 期货价格 | | 12605 | 1715 | 34. 5 | 2. 1% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2605 | 1052613 | 496064 | 2318 | | | | 12605 | 18558 | 31157 | 198 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 | 1 600 | 1 600 | 0 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1450 | 1450 | 0 | | | 焦煤 | 吕梁瘦主佳煤 | 1153 | 1 ...

Report Summary Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Pigs: Contradictions Continue to Accumulate, Strong Before the Festival" and is dated December 31, 2025 [1] Core View - The contradictions in the pig industry continue to accumulate, and the price is expected to be strong before the festival [1] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Key Points by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices in Henan, Sichuan, and Guangdong are 12,530 yuan/ton, 12,650 yuan/ton, and 12,960 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 50 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, and 400 yuan/ton [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 11,305 yuan/ton, 11,790 yuan/ton, and 12,175 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 35 yuan/ton, 75 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 6,043 lots, 105,463 lots, and 23,530 lots respectively, with changes of - 905 lots, 275 lots, and - 11,071 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 8,823 lots, 172,346 lots, and 88,702 lots respectively, with changes of - 3,397 lots, 1,230 lots, and - 162 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of "Pig 2601", "Pig 2603", and "Pig 2605" are 1,225 yuan/ton, 740 yuan/ton, and 355 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 85 yuan/ton, - 25 yuan/ton, and 25 yuan/ton. The spreads between "Pig 1 - 3" and "Pig 3 - 5" are - 485 yuan/ton and - 385 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 110 yuan/ton and 50 yuan/ton [2] Market Information - Multiple companies registered warehouse receipts in December 2025. For example, Yunnan Shennong registered 85 lots on December 4, Guizhou Fuyuan registered 23 lots on December 5, and others also had different registrations [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength is 0, with the range of values from - 2 to 2, indicating a neutral view [4]

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG: The January CP was set at a high level, leading to a night - session price increase. - Propylene: Spot supply - demand has tightened, with an expected rebound from the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices and Changes**: - For LPG futures, PG2601 closed at 4,195 yesterday with a 0.84% daily increase and 4,208 at night with a 0.31% increase; PG2602 closed at 4,097 yesterday with a 1.26% daily increase and 4,181 at night with a 2.05% increase. - For propylene futures, PL2601 closed at 6,010 yesterday with a 2.16% daily increase and 5,940 at night with a - 1.16% decrease [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: - PG2601 had a trading volume of 1,634 yesterday, an increase of 709 from the previous day, and an open interest of 1,432, a decrease of 862 from the previous day. - PL2602 had a trading volume of 12,936 yesterday, an increase of 3635 from the previous day, and an open interest of 5,369, a decrease of 556 from the previous day [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG01 contract was 355 yesterday, down from 390 the previous day. - The spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was - 285 yesterday, down from - 158 the previous day [1]. - **Key Industrial Chain Data**: - The PDH operating rate this week was 76.4%, up from 75.0% last week. - The MTBE operating rate was 68.0%, down from 68.9%. - The alkylation operating rate was 38.1%, up from 36.8% [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [5]. 3.3 Market News - Saudi Aramco set the January 2026 CP. Propane was set at 525 dollars/ton, a 30 - dollar/ton increase from the previous month; butane was set at 520 dollars/ton, a 35 - dollar/ton increase from the previous month. The estimated landed cost in RMB is about 4721 yuan/ton for propane and 4682 yuan/ton for butane [6]. - There are domestic PDH device maintenance plans and domestic LPG plant device maintenance plans, including details such as enterprise names, device capacities, maintenance start and end times [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For industrial silicon, attention should be paid to the production - cut rhythm of upstream factories [1]. - For polysilicon, it will fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: - Industrial silicon (Si2605): The closing price was 8,915 yuan/ton, with a change of 200 yuan compared to T - 1, 135 yuan compared to T - 5, and - 215 yuan compared to T - 22. The trading volume was 366,201 lots, and the open interest was 216,220 lots [2]. - Polysilicon (PS2605): The closing price was 57,890 yuan/ton, with a change of 1,390 yuan compared to T - 1 and - 1,335 yuan compared to T - 5 [2]. - **Basis Data**: - Industrial silicon: The spot premium/discount varied when对标 different grades. For example, when对标ing East China Si5530, it was + 335 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: When对标ing N - type re - investment material, the spot premium/discount was - 5,890 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 8,700 yuan/ton, and the price of Yunnan Si4210 was 10,000 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The price of N - type re - investment material was 52,500 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit Data**: - Industrial silicon: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang (new standard 553) was - 2,411.5 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan (new standard 553) it was - 4,719 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon: The profit of polysilicon enterprises was 8.2 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory Data**: - Industrial silicon: The social inventory (including warehouse - receipt inventory) was 55.5 million tons, the enterprise inventory was 19.6 million tons, and the industry inventory was 75.1 million tons [2]. - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory was 30.3 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost Data**: - Industrial silicon: The price of silicon ore in Xinjiang was 320 yuan/ton, and in Yunnan it was 250 yuan/ton [2]. - Other raw materials: The prices of washed coking coal, petroleum coke, electrodes, etc. were also provided [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News On December 19, the completion ceremony of the deep - treatment project of the ore - heating furnace flue gas of Sichuan Fuxing New Materials Co., Ltd. was held, aiming at green transformation and high - quality regional development [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of industrial silicon was 0, and that of polysilicon was also 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].