1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various energy - chemical futures, including trends, fundamentals, and trading strategies for each product [2]. - The performance of different products varies, with some in a state of shock, some showing a downward trend, and others with potential investment opportunities in spread trading [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Oil prices are falling, and valuations are dropping again. It is recommended to take a long - short spread position between the November and January contracts. The PXN compression space may be limited, and attention should be paid to the strategy of going long on PX and short on Brent [4][12]. - **PTA**: Cost support is weak. It is advisable to take a long - short spread position between the November and January contracts. The PTA processing fee is difficult to expand, and attention should be paid to the compression of the PTA01/05 processing fee [5][12]. - **MEG**: The market is concerned about the new capacity of Yulong Petrochemical. It is recommended to take a short - long spread position between the January and May contracts. The spot price is in a weak shock state [5][13]. 3.2 Rubber - Rubber is in a wide - range shock state. The trading volume has increased, and the position of the top 20 members' net short has decreased [14][15]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it is under shock pressure, and in the medium term, it oscillates within the fundamental valuation range. Although the fundamentals face pressure, there are some positive expectations [20][23]. 3.4 Asphalt - Crude oil prices have fallen, and many regions are accelerating inventory reduction. The overall trend is neutral [24]. 3.5 LLDPE - In the medium term, it is in a shock market. Although demand is improving, the "Golden September" demand peak has not been fully realized, and the market is in a state of shock [39][40]. 3.6 PP - In the short term, it is in a shock state, and in the medium term, there is still pressure. Supply pressure will increase in the future, but short - selling at low levels should be cautious [43][44]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - It is not advisable to chase short positions. Currently, the market is in a wide - range shock, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient [47][48]. 3.8 Pulp - Pulp is in an oscillating operation state. The futures market is affected by the chemical sector, and the demand side is weak, while the international market provides cost support [52][56]. 3.9 Glass - The price of glass original sheets is stable. The market price is slightly weaker, with supply pressure increasing and demand improvement insufficient [57][58]. 3.10 Methanol - Methanol is in an oscillating operation state. The port inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure from the supply side, but there is also support from positive expectations and policies [60][63]. 3.11 Urea - Urea is in a weak shock state. In the short term, it is under shock pressure, and in the medium term, the trend is still weak. Export growth may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [65][68]. 3.12 Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium term. The cost center has moved down, and the short - term downward space has opened up [69][70]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The spot market for soda ash has changed little. The market is weakly stable, and prices are expected to be weakly sorted in the short term [71]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Affected by the expectation of oversupply, the night - session oil price has declined [73]. - **Propylene**: Supply and demand are tight, and spot transactions are rising [74]. 3.15 PVC - PVC is in a low - level shock state. The market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the export growth rate may slow down [83][85]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night - session price has weakened significantly, and the price center continues to decline [87]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the decline of crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the foreign spot market fluctuates narrowly [87]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is under pressure. Freight rates are showing a downward trend [89].

报告行业投资评级 - 锌趋势强度为0，处于中性状态，取值范围在【-2,2】区间整数，-2表示最看空，2表示最看多 [3] 报告的核心观点 - 锌市场呈现累库持续状态，各指标有不同变化 [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 基本面跟踪 - 沪锌主力收盘价22250元/吨，较前日涨0.16%；伦锌3M电子盘收盘2887.5美元/吨，较前日涨0.72% [1] - 沪锌主力成交量93321手，较前日增加9597手；伦锌成交量7702手，较前日减少1578手 [1] - 沪锌主力持仓量100442手，较前日减少2612手；伦锌持仓量203552手，较前日增加2333手 [1] - 上海0锌升贴水-65元/吨，较前日增加5元/吨；LME CASH - 3M升贴水18美元/吨，较前日增加25.5美元/吨 [1] - 广东0锌升贴水-105元/吨，较前日减少5元/吨；进口提单溢价135美元/吨，较前日无变动 [1] - 天津0锌升贴水-85元/吨，较前日减少5元/吨；锌锭现货进口盈亏-2457.51元/吨，较前日减少112.13元/吨 [1] - ZN00 - ZN01为-65元/吨，较前日增加10元/吨；沪锌连三进口盈亏-2111.88元/吨，较前日减少55.89元/吨 [1] - 沪锌期货库存44925吨，较前日增加596吨；LME锌库存50625吨，较前日减少200吨 [1] - 1.0mm热镀锌卷含税4293元/吨，较前日无变动；LME锌注销仓单15200吨，较前日减少175吨 [1] - 上海Zamak - 5锌合金23355元/吨，较前日增加90元/吨；LME off warrant（T + 3）14057吨，较前日增加419吨 [1] - 上海Zamak - 3锌合金22805元/吨，较前日增加90元/吨；氧化锌≥99.7%为21300元/吨，较前日增加100元/吨 [1] 新闻 - 美国8月CPI同比增长2.9%，环比增长0.4%，核心CPI同比增长3.1%，环比增长0.3%，增速与华尔街预期和7月水平持平，推动物价上行的动力主要来自汽车和服务价格，交易员消化了美联储年底前降息三次的情景 [1] - 美国上周首申失业金人数增至26.3万，跃升至近四年高位，截至9月6日的一周较上月增加2.7万人，经济学家预测中值为略降至23.5万人，截至8月30日的一周续请失业金人数保持194万人不变 [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for tin is "Range-bound" [1] Report's Core View - The report provides the latest data on tin's fundamentals, including price, trading volume, inventory, and key industrial chain prices, and also presents relevant macro and industry news [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures and Spot Market Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 271,260 with a daily increase of 0.31%, and the night - session closing price was 272,130 with a night - session increase of 0.27%. The LME 3M electronic tin price was 34,700 with a daily increase of 0.19%. The trading volume of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 57,815, an increase of 9,155 from the previous day, and the position was 26,606, a decrease of 744. The trading volume of the LME 3M electronic tin was 180, a decrease of 9, and the position was 13,988, an increase of 53 [2] - **Inventory Data**: The Shanghai Tin inventory was 7,504, an increase of 22, and the LME tin inventory was 2,385, a decrease of 25. The LME tin注销仓单 ratio was 6.57%, a decrease of 0.38% [2] - **Spot Price Data**: The SMM 1 tin ingot price and the Yangtze River Non - ferrous 1 tin average price were both 271,100, an increase of 1,000 from the previous day. The LME tin (spot/three - month) spread was 45, an increase of 18 [2] - **Industrial Chain Key Price Data**: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan was 259,100, an increase of 1,000, and the price of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi was 263,100, an increase of 1,000. The price of 60A solder bar was 175,750, an increase of 500 [2] Macro and Industry News - US inflation was basically in line with expectations. In August, the core CPI increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, a nearly four - year high [3] - The European Central Bank kept interest rates unchanged for two consecutive meetings, believing that inflation pressure was under control. ECB President Lagarde made hawkish remarks [3] - China's State Council will carry out comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions [3] - China's Ministry of Commerce will closely monitor Mexico's tax - increasing trends and take necessary measures [3] - Alibaba open - sourced the Qwen3 - Next model [3] - Tesla's new growth point: The earliest delivery of the Model Y L in China will be in November, and its stock price rose 6% [4] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of tin is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Report's Core View - There is no explicit core view presented in the report, mainly focusing on the fundamental data tracking of eggs. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of egg2510 is 3,043 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily increase of 0.36%, a trading volume decrease of 53,681, and an open - interest decrease of 54,902; the closing price of egg2601 is 3,349 yuan/500 kilograms, with a daily decrease of 0.71%, a trading volume increase of 4,549, and an open - interest increase of 4,652 [1]. - **Spread Data**: The egg10 - 12 spread is - 126 (previous day: - 153), and the egg10 - 1 spread is - 306 (previous day: - 334) [1]. - **Spot Price Data**: The spot prices in Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, and Hubei are 3.30 yuan/jin, 3.11 yuan/jin, 3.45 yuan/jin (previous day: 3.40 yuan/jin), and 3.69 yuan/jin respectively [1]. - **Industrial Chain Data**: The corn spot price is 2,317 yuan/ton (previous day: 2,328 yuan/ton), the soybean meal spot price is 3,030 yuan/ton, and the Henan live - pig price is 13.53 yuan/kg (previous day: 13.58 yuan/kg) [1]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral view, with the value range from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of lead is fluctuating, with the Shanghai lead futures and London lead futures showing certain price changes and trading volume and position adjustments [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Sections 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,900 yuan/ton, up 0.63% from the previous day; the closing price of the London lead 3M electronic market was 1,988.5 US dollars/ton, up 0.53% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 41,772 lots, a decrease of 3,543 lots; the trading volume of London lead was 6,327 lots, an increase of 1,905 lots. The open interest of the Shanghai lead main contract was 49,603 lots, a decrease of 864 lots; the open interest of London lead was 158,239 lots, an increase of 784 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -30 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan/ton; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -42.5 US dollars/ton, unchanged [1] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Shanghai lead futures was 59,737 tons, an increase of 6,048 tons; the LME lead inventory was 232,625 tons, a decrease of 4,375 tons [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 10,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -198 yuan/ton, an increase of 105 yuan/ton [1] 3.2 News - The State Council will carry out comprehensive reform pilot projects on the market - based allocation of factors in 10 regions including Beijing Sub - center, key cities in southern Jiangsu, Hangzhou, Ningbo, Wenzhou, and Hefei Metropolitan Area [2] - US inflation was basically in line with expectations. The core CPI in August increased by 3.1% year - on - year and 0.3% month - on - month, the same as Wall Street expectations and July. The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week increased to 263,000, reaching a nearly four - year high [2] - The lead trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for short - fiber and bottle - chip are both "short - term shock and slightly strong" [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - fiber futures fluctuate and consolidate following raw materials, with stable factory quotes and limited spot trading. The average sales - to - production ratio is 63%. Bottle - chip factory quotes are mostly stable, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and export quotes are also stable [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short - fiber - For short - fiber contracts, short - fiber 2510 closed at 6376, down 2 from the previous day; short - fiber 2511 closed at 6370, up 6; short - fiber 2512 closed at 6356, up 18. PF10 - 11 was 6, down 8; PF11 - 12 was 14, down 12. The basis was 100, down 6. The main contract's open interest was 144,980, down 13,832, and the trading volume was 184,338, down 4035. The spot price in East China remained at 6470, and the sales - to - production ratio increased from 54% to 63% [1] Bottle - chip - For bottle - chip contracts, bottle - chip 2510 closed at 5840, down 6; bottle - chip 2511 closed at 5844, down 4; bottle - chip 2512 closed at 5848, down 10. PR10 - 11 was - 4, down 2; PR11 - 12 was - 4, up 6. The main contract's basis was - 14, down 6. The main contract's open interest was 37,689, down 123, and the trading volume was 34,262, up 2093. The spot price in East China dropped from 5840 to 5830, and in South China, it dropped from 5900 to 5890 [1] Spot News Short - fiber - Short - fiber futures fluctuate with raw materials, factory quotes are stable, and spot trading is limited. Semi - dull 1.4D is mainly traded in the range of 6400 - 6700. The average sales - to - production ratio is 63% as of 3:00 pm [1] Bottle - chip - Upstream polyester raw material futures closed slightly higher, bottle - chip factory quotes are mostly stable. The domestic market trading atmosphere is fair, with 9 - 11 month orders mainly traded at 5800 - 5920 yuan/ton ex - factory. Export quotes of bottle - chip factories are mostly stable, with the negotiation range of mainstream East China factories at 765 - 790 US dollars/ton FOB Shanghai Port [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short - fiber and bottle - chip is both 1, indicating a slightly strong trend for the main contract's price fluctuations on the reporting day [2]

【基本面跟踪】 2025 年 9 月 12 日 螺纹钢：螺纹需求相对较弱，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：热卷需求韧性良好，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【宏观及行业新闻】 9 月 11 日钢联周度数据：产量方面，螺纹-6.75 万吨，热卷+10.9 万吨，五大品种合计-3.41 万吨； 总库存方面，螺纹+13.86 万吨，热卷-1.02 万吨，五大品种合计+13.91 万吨；表需方面，螺纹-4 万吨， 热卷+18.85 万吨，五大品种合计+15.5 万吨。（数据来源：上海钢联） 海关总署 9 月 8 日数据显示，2025 年 8 月中国出口钢材 951.0 万吨，较上月减少 32.6 万吨，环比下 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | R ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View The production of lithium carbonate continues to recover, and the price is in a weak and volatile state. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is -1, indicating a relatively bearish outlook [1][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the 2511 contract, the closing price is 71,000 yuan, the trading volume is 426,041 lots, and the open interest is 323,456 lots. For the 2601 contract, the closing price is 71,280 yuan, the trading volume is 84,950 lots, and the open interest is 173,476 lots. The basis shows certain fluctuations [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 844 yuan, and the price of lepidolite (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,775 yuan. The prices of various lithium salts such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide also show different degrees of change [1]. - **Industry Chain Related Data**: The prices of products in the lithium battery industry chain, including lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, and electrolyte, have different trends. For example, the price of power - type lithium iron phosphate is 33,470 yuan [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 72,804 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 610 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 72,850 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 70,600 yuan/ton, both down 600 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day [2]. - This week, the production of lithium carbonate is 19,963 tons, an increase of 544 tons from last week, and the weekly inventory is 138,512 tons, a decrease of 1,580 tons from last week [2]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is -1, within the range of [-2, 2], indicating a relatively bearish view on the market [4].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The fuel oil market showed a downward trend overnight, with the price center continuing to decline. Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil, and the spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market fluctuated narrowly [1]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - **Price and Change**: FU2510 closed at 2,838 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the settlement price increased by 0.18%. FU2511 closed at 2,833 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.18%, and the settlement price increased by 0.07%. LU2510 closed at 3,350 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.18%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.74%. LU2511 closed at 3,374 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.74%, and the settlement price decreased by 0.65% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Position**: The trading volume of FU2510 was 16,974 lots, a decrease of 14,191 lots, and the position was 14,839 lots, a decrease of 2,332 lots. The trading volume of FU2511 was 17,303 lots, a decrease of 14,300 lots, and the position was 26,995 lots, an increase of 11 lots. The trading volume of LU2510 was 654 lots, a decrease of 1,587 lots, and the position was 5,247 lots, a decrease of 353 lots. The trading volume of LU2511 was 82,588 lots, a decrease of 21,245 lots, and the position was 75,318 lots, an increase of 1,493 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts of fuel oil in the whole market were 101,500 lots with no change, and the warehouse receipts of low - sulfur fuel oil were 10,020 lots with no change [1]. - **Spot Price**: - **3.5%S**: Singapore MOPS was 393.1 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.81%; Singapore Bunker was 404.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.98%; Fujeirah Bunker was 382.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.04%; Zhoushan Bunker was 421.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.71%; Shanghai Bunker was 421.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.94%; Tokyo Bunker was 443.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.89%; South Korea Bunker was 436.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.36% [1]. - **0.5%S**: Singapore MOPS was 463.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.64%; Singapore Bunker was 475.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.63%; Fujeirah Bunker was 477.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; Zhoushan Bunker was 495.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.40%; Shanghai Bunker was 495.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.40%; Tokyo Bunker was 506.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.59%; South Korea Bunker was 533.0 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.56% [1]. - **Spread**: - **Futures Spread**: The spread of FU10 - 11 was 5 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 9 yuan/ton, with a difference of 4 yuan/ton. The spread of LU10 - 11 was - 24 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was - 27 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 3 yuan/ton. The spread of LU10 - FU10 was 512 yuan/ton, and the settlement spread was 510 yuan/ton, with a difference of - 2 yuan/ton [1]. - **Other Spreads**: The spread of FU2510 - Singapore MOPS (3.5%S) was 37.8 yuan/ton, with a change of 33.9 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread of LU2510 - Singapore MOPS (0.5%S) was 51.5 yuan/ton, with a change of 15.1 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread of Singapore MOPS (0.5%S - 3.5%S) was 70.0 dollars/ton, with a change of 0.3 dollars/ton compared with the previous day [1]. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil is both 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report tracks the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, profit, inventory, and other data, and mentions a macro - industry news about a photovoltaic project in Inner Mongolia. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0 (neutral), and that of polysilicon is 1 (slightly bullish) [2][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data of Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Futures Market**: Si2511 closed at 8,740 yuan/ton, with a volume of 347,619 lots and an open interest of 287,771 lots; PS2511 closed at 53,710 yuan/ton, with a volume of 278,296 lots and an open interest of 136,326 lots [2]. - **Basis**: Industrial silicon and polysilicon have different spot - futures basis values for different benchmarks, such as the spot premium of industrial silicon to East China Si5530 is +515 yuan/ton [2]. - **Price**: The price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon is 8600 yuan/ton, Yunnan Si4210 is 9650 yuan/ton, and polysilicon - N - type re - feedstock is 51550 yuan/ton [2]. - **Profit**: The profit of silicon plants in Xinjiang and Yunnan is negative, and the profit of polysilicon enterprises is - 14.4 yuan/kg [2]. - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory is 53.9 million tons, enterprise inventory is 17.4 million tons, and industry inventory is 71.3 million tons; polysilicon's manufacturer inventory is 21.9 million tons [2]. - **Raw Material Cost**: The prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes in different regions are provided [2]. - **Prices in the Polysilicon (Photovoltaic) Industry**: The prices of products such as trichlorosilane, silicon powder, silicon wafers, battery cells, components, photovoltaic glass, and photovoltaic - grade EVA are listed [2]. - **Profit in Related Industries**: The profit of DMC enterprises is - 1224 yuan/ton, and the profit of recycled aluminum enterprises is 90 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - On September 8th, the 500 - megawatt photovoltaic project of Inner Mongolia Jineneng New Energy in Zhungeer Banner started. It is a key large - scale wind and photovoltaic base project in desert, Gobi, and desert areas. After completion, it will send about 1 billion kWh of green electricity to the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region annually, with significant economic, social, and environmental benefits [2][4]. 3.3 Trend Strength - The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook; the trend strength of polysilicon is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [4].