2025 年 07 月 22 日 品 研 究 工业硅：仓单继续去化，盘面抗跌 多晶硅：关注组件端成交情况 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2509收盘价（元/吨） | 9,260 | 565 | 565 | 1,790 | | | | Si2509成交量（手） | 1,260,930 -444,069 | | -213,063 | 831,847 | | | | Si2509持仓量（手） | 383,296 | -3,956 | -19,594 | 72,939 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2509收盘价（元/吨） | 45,660 | 1,810 | 3,895 | - | | | | PS2509成交量（手） | 621,314 | -423,760 | 150,985 | - | | | | PS2509持仓量（手） | ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 沥青：震荡反复 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2508 | 元/吨 | 3,678 | 0.11% | 3,638 | -1.09% | | | BU2509 | 元/吨 | 3,657 | 0.05% | 3,615 | -1.15% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2508 | 手 | 2,750 | 379 | 6,308 | (1,060) | | | BU2509 | 手 | 141,580 | (15,006) | 223,360 | (4,713) | | | | | 昨日仓单 | 仓单变化 | | | | | 沥青全市场 | 手 | 82300 | 0 | | | | | | | 昨日价差 | 前日价差 | ...

Report Overview - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [1] - Report Title: Palm Oil: Boosted by Macro Factors, Beware of Sentiment Decline; Soybean Oil: Rising with the Oil and Fat Sector, Weaker Among Varieties [2] - Analyst: Li Junyu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, with global supply projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8%. Meanwhile, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1%. [4][5][8] Summary by Section Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: Palm oil主力 closed at 8,910 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.60% change and 8,924 yuan/ton at night with a 0.16% change; soybean oil主力 closed at 8,092 yuan/ton during the day session with a -0.83% change and 8,054 yuan/ton at night with a -0.47% change; other futures also had corresponding price and change details [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Palm oil主力 had a trading volume of 708,709 lots with an increase of 5026, and an open interest of 509,869 lots with a decrease of 47,186; soybean oil主力 had a trading volume of 321,474 lots with a decrease of 19,705, and an open interest of 535,817 lots with a decrease of 22,367; other futures also had corresponding trading volume and open - interest changes [3] - **Spot Prices**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,970 yuan/ton with no change; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong was 8,300 yuan/ton with no change; other spot prices also had corresponding details [3] - **Basis**: The basis of palm oil in Guangdong was 60 yuan/ton; the basis of soybean oil in Guangdong was 208 yuan/ton; other basis details were also provided [3] - **Price Spreads**: The spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil futures主力 was 653 yuan/ton; the spread between soybean oil and palm oil futures主力 was - 818 yuan/ton; other spread details were also provided [3] Macro and Industry News - **Palm Oil Production Outlook**: Global palm oil production growth is expected to slow due to sustainability issues and aging oil palm trees in Indonesia and Malaysia, which account for nearly one - third of global vegetable oil production and over 80% of global palm oil production. Global palm oil supply is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.8% [4][5] - **Malaysian Palm Oil Data**: From July 1 - 20, 2025, Malaysian palm oil yield per unit area increased by 7.03% month - on - month, oil extraction rate decreased by 0.16% month - on - month, and production increased by 6.19% month - on - month according to SPPOMA. The export volume from July 1 - 20 was 740,394 tons, a 7.31% decrease compared to the same period last month according to AmSpec. United Plantations reported a 13.8% and 20.5% year - on - year increase in palm oil and palm kernel production in Q2, respectively, and a 5.6% increase in palm oil average price and a 46.5% increase in palm kernel sales price [5][6] - **India's Palm Oil Situation**: India has become the largest importer of Malaysian oil palm seeds, with significant demand growth. In 2024, India imported 303 million tons of palm oil from Malaysia, accounting for 17.9% of Malaysia's total palm oil exports [6] - **Indonesia's B50 Policy**: Indonesia's plan to increase the palm - oil - based biodiesel blending ratio to 50% next year faces challenges due to uncertainties in raw material supply, production capacity, infrastructure gaps, and potential environmental and legal issues [7] - **Soybean Production Outlook**: By 2034, soybean production in countries such as India, Russia, Ukraine, and Canada is expected to increase. Brazil, the largest soybean producer, is projected to see a 0.8% annual growth in soybean production, slightly higher than the 0.5% of the US. Argentina and Paraguay's soybean production is expected to reach 56 million tons and 13 million tons respectively by 2034, and global soybean production is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1% [8] - **USDA Crop Growth Report**: As of the week ending July 20, 2025, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 68%, lower than the market expectation of 71%. The flowering rate was 62%, and the pod - setting rate was 26% [8] Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 0, and soybean oil trend intensity is 0, with the range of trend intensity being integers from - 2 to 2 [9]

商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 焦炭：震荡偏强 焦煤：震荡偏强 刘豫武 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021518 liuyuwu025832@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 焦煤焦炭基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | JM2509 | 1006 | 80 | 8. 64% | | 期货价格 | | J2509 | 1603 | 85 | 5.60% | | | | | 昨日成交(手) | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | JM2509 | 1610604 | 504871 | -27032 | | | | J2509 | 41238 | 43915 | -17 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 焦煤 | | | | | | | | 临汾低硫主焦 全泉蒙5精煤自提价 | 1300 1008 | 1300 950 | 0 58 | | | | 吕梁低硫主焦 | 1150 | 1150 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Commodity Research Morning Report - Black Series by Guotai Junan Futures on July 22, 2025, covering multiple commodities in the black series [1]. Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Different commodities in the black series have different trends: iron ore shows a strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese maintain strong - side oscillations due to persistent market sentiment; coke and coking coal are oscillating strongly; thermal coal stabilizes with oscillating as daily consumption recovers; logs oscillate repeatedly [2]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation supported by macro - expectations [2][4]. - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 809 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton with a 3.06% increase. The open - interest decreased by 29,220 lots. Spot prices of various types of iron ore all increased. Some basis and spreads showed minor changes [4]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][9][10]. - **Fundamentals**: For rebar RB2510, the closing price was 3,224 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton with a 2.15% increase; for hot - rolled coils HC2510, the closing price was 3,394 yuan/ton, up 73 yuan/ton with a 2.20% increase. Spot prices in different regions increased, and some basis and spreads changed [10]. - **News**: In June, the total social electricity consumption was 867 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a work plan for stabilizing growth in ten key industries. Steel production and inventory data in July showed certain changes [8][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both rebar and hot - rolled coils [12]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Trend**: Strong - side oscillation due to persistent market sentiment [2][14]. - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese increased. Spot prices of ferrosilicon FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia and silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia both increased by 50 yuan/ton. Some basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [14]. - **News**: On July 21, prices of 72 and 75 ferrosilicon in different regions increased. Some steel mills' procurement prices and quantities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese were determined. In June, the national manganese ore import volume decreased compared to May but increased compared to the same period last year [15][17]. - **Trend Intensity**: 1 for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese [16]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Trend**: Oscillating strongly [2][18][19]. - **Fundamentals**: For coking coal JM2509, the closing price was 1,000 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton with an 8.64% increase; for coke J2509, the closing price was 1,603 yuan/ton, up 85 yuan/ton with a 5.60% increase. Spot prices of coking coal and coke in some regions had minor changes, and some basis and spreads changed significantly [19]. - **News**: Northern port coking coal quotes and the Fenwei CCI metallurgical coal index on July 21 were released. Regarding the open - interest, for coking coal JM2509, long - position decreased by 8,626 lots and short - position decreased by 12,469 lots; for coke J2509, long - position increased by 358 lots and short - position increased by 74 lots [19][20][21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for coke and 1 for coking coal [21]. Thermal Coal - **Trend**: Stabilizing with oscillating as daily consumption recovers [2][22]. - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2507 contract had no trading on the previous day. Southern port foreign - trade thermal coal quotes and domestic thermal coal origin quotes were provided. Regarding the open - interest, both long - position and short - position of the ZC2507 contract decreased by 0 lots [22][23]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [24]. Logs - **Trend**: Oscillating repeatedly [2][25]. - **Fundamentals**: Closing prices, trading volumes, and open - interests of different log contracts showed certain changes. Spot prices of various log products remained stable [26]. - **News**: The downstream hydropower project of the Yarlung Zangbo River started on July 19, with a total investment of about 1.2 trillion yuan [28]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide explicit industry - wide investment ratings. 2. Core Views - Overall, the market is influenced by factors such as "anti - involution", supply - demand dynamics, and external trade risks. Different commodities show various trends, including upward, downward, and sideways movements [12][39][47]. - Some commodities are expected to follow the overall strength of the commodity market driven by "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization, while others are restricted by their own supply - demand fundamentals [12][60]. 3. Summary by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Price rose on the 21st. A 390,000 - ton PX device in North China plans to shut down for maintenance tomorrow. It is expected to be in a state of tight supply - demand. Suggested to go long on PX unilaterally and roll - over long on the spread. Keep an eye on the long PX and short EB/EG positions [6][12]. - **PTA**: In a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, it is a unilateral sideways market. The processing fee is hard to improve. The supply is loose, and it is expected to maintain a slight inventory build - up pattern [12]. - **MEG**: The spread is weak, and it unilaterally follows the overall strength of the commodity market. The supply is relatively loose, and the upward space of the unilateral price is limited due to weak polyester demand [13][14]. Rubber - The price is oscillating strongly. The inventory in Qingdao decreased slightly. Influenced by macro - positives, cost, and产区 weather, the bullish sentiment is strong [15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - The price center moves up. In the short - term, it is driven by policies, the strength of the rubber sector, and improved fundamentals. In the medium - term, there is pressure on the fundamentals [19][21]. Asphalt - It is oscillating repeatedly. The production decreased slightly this week, the factory inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly [22][37]. LLDPE - It is in a range - bound oscillation. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support is weak. Although the inventory was low before, it is gradually moving towards inventory build - up [38][39]. PP - The spot price rose slightly, and the trading was light. The futures price increase boosted the market sentiment, and the cost support strengthened, but the downstream procurement was cautious [43][44]. Caustic Soda - It is in the off - season of demand, with insufficient price - increasing power, but strong cost support due to weak liquid chlorine. There are still expectations for the peak season [46][47]. Pulp - It is oscillating strongly. The market shows a differentiation of futures premium and spot price stagnation. The supply pressure is still there, and the demand support is limited [50][52]. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The price has risen slightly recently, and the production and sales in most regions are acceptable [54][55]. Methanol - It is running strongly. The spot price index increased. It is expected to follow the strength of the commodity market in the short - term, with a neutral short - term fundamental [57][60]. Urea - It is running strongly in the short - term. The inventory decreased this week. It may follow the strength of the commodity market. The fundamentals are expected to improve marginally in late July, but there is pressure from the end of domestic agricultural demand [62][64]. Styrene - The "anti - involution" sentiment is strong, and it is strong in the short - term. It is currently in a pattern of high production, high profit, and high inventory, mainly for short - allocation. The port inventory is in an accelerated inventory build - up stage [65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market has little change. The futures price oscillated upwards, and some enterprises controlled orders. The market is expected to fluctuate narrowly and the low price may rise [67]. LPG - It is oscillating weakly in the short - term. The 8 - month and 9 - month Saudi CP expectations decreased. There are many PDH device maintenance plans [71][78]. PVC - It is strong in the short - term but still has pressure above. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term, and the export sustainability needs to be observed [81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: The night session weakened slightly, and it is mainly in a short - term sideways trend. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continued to decline, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market remained weak [86]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - It is recommended to short at high prices for the October contract and hold the 10 - 12 and 10 - 02 reverse spreads [88].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No report industry investment ratings are provided in the content [1][2] Group 2: Core Views - The US-EU trade negotiation has reached a deadlock, with the US setting an August 1st deadline for a new trade agreement, and the EU considering "nuclear option" countermeasures [5][20][21] - For specific commodities, the report provides trend predictions such as gold's upward oscillation, silver's upward breakthrough, and copper's price supported by inventory reduction [12][18][21] Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Propylene - On July 22, 2025, the listing benchmark price of the first batch of propylene futures contracts was 6350 yuan/ton. Considering the spread and delivery costs, the recommended strategy is to buy the 02 contract of propylene and short the 01 contract of PP [6] Glass - In the short term, the glass market is slightly bullish but overvalued. The market has rebounded due to policy expectations and reduced short positions. However, the high premium of futures contracts over spot prices may lead to market fluctuations. As the market approaches August, the delivery logic may favor short positions [9] Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to oscillate upward, and silver to break through upward [12][18] - **Copper**: Copper price is supported by inventory reduction, with both domestic and international copper inventories decreasing [21] - **Zinc**: Zinc is in a range - bound oscillation [12][24] - **Lead**: The price of lead is supported by supply - demand contradictions [12][27] - **Tin**: The price of tin is weakening [12][29] - **Aluminum and Related Products**: Aluminum is expected to oscillate upward, alumina has a short - term strong sentiment, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [12][33] - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel's upward potential is limited by reality despite positive macro - sentiment, and stainless steel's trend is mainly influenced by macro - sentiment with fundamentals determining its elasticity [12][36] Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: With potential supply reduction and positive macro - sentiment, the short - term trend may remain strong [12][41] - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Industrial silicon's position is decreasing, making the market resistant to decline; polysilicon requires attention to component sales [12][45] Building Materials - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, it is in a bullish oscillation [12][48] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Market sentiment remains strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][50][51] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon and Manganese Silicate**: Market sentiment is strong, and both are in a bullish oscillation [12][55] Energy - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are expected to oscillate upward [12][59][60] - **Steam Coal**: With the recovery of daily consumption, the market is stabilizing with an oscillating trend [12][63] Others - **Log**: The log market is oscillating repeatedly [66]

Report Overview - Date: July 22, 2025 - Report Type: Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Research Firms: Guotai Junan Futures Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Nickel: Macro sentiment boosts expectations, but reality limits elasticity [2][4] - Stainless Steel: Macro sentiment dominates the margin, and fundamentals determine elasticity [2][4] - Lithium Carbonate: Potential supply reduction combined with strong macro sentiment may lead to a strong short - term trend [2][9] - Industrial Silicon: Warehouse receipts continue to decline, and the futures price is resilient [2][13] - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the transaction situation at the component end [2][13] Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 122,550 yuan, with a change of 2,050 yuan compared to T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,905 yuan, up 180 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads also showed corresponding changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Ontario, Canada may stop exporting nickel to the US; an Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial - production stage; a nickel smelter in Indonesia resumed production; a cold - rolling mill in Indonesia will continue maintenance; the Philippine nickel industry welcomes the removal of the raw - ore export ban; environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park; Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period; some nickel - iron production lines in Indonesia stopped due to losses [4][5][6][7] - **Trend Intensity**: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8] Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 71,280 yuan, up 1,320 yuan from T - 1. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various prices in the lithium - salt industry chain also showed changes [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate increased; Yichun Yinli plans to conduct equipment maintenance; in June 2025, the total import of spodumene decreased by 4.8% month - on - month [10][11] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [11] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2509 contract was 9,260 yuan, up 565 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the PS2509 contract was 45,660 yuan, up 1,810 yuan from T - 1. Data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, and profits also showed corresponding changes [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will implement a new round of key - industry stable - growth plans, and some industries have shown good growth [14][15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of both industrial silicon and polysilicon are 1, indicating a slightly bullish outlook [15]

2025年07月22日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：宏观助推，警惕情绪回落 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：跟随油脂板块上涨，品种间偏弱 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆收跌，连粕调整震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：调整震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：持续反弹 | 6 | | 白糖：跟随原糖 | 7 | | 棉花：关注市场情绪变化 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：旺季先至，淘汰情绪下降 | 10 | | 生猪：宏观情绪偏强，等待月底印证 | 11 | | 花生：震荡运行 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 7 月 22 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 棕榈油：宏观助推，警惕情绪回落 豆油：跟随油脂板块上涨，品种间偏弱 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | | 单 位 | 收盘价 (日盘） | 涨跌幅 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 棕榈 ...

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of double-offset paper is 0, indicating a neutral stance on the market [1]. Core View - The offset printing paper market is experiencing a low-level oscillation with limited upward momentum. The cost has increased, leading to a decline in both pre - tax and post - tax gross margins [1]. Summary by Category Fundamental Data - In the Shandong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunjing, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang remained unchanged at 4850 yuan/ton, 5150 yuan/ton, and 5150 yuan/ton respectively from July 18th to July 21st, 2025. In the Guangdong market, the prices of 70g Tianyang, 70g Chenming Yunbao, and 70g Huaxia Taiyang also remained stable [1]. - Pre - tax, the含税收入 remained at 5100 yuan/ton, the含税 cost increased from 5014 yuan/ton to 5028 yuan/ton, and the pre - tax gross margin decreased from 86 yuan/ton to 72 yuan/ton. Post - tax, the non - taxable income was stable at 4513 yuan/ton, the non - taxable cost increased from 4610 yuan/ton to 4622 yuan/ton, and the post - tax gross margin decreased from - 96 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - In the Shandong market, the mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper is 5000 - 5200 yuan/ton, and some natural - white double - offset paper is priced at 4600 - 4900 yuan/ton. The price is stable compared to the previous day. Large - scale paper mills are operating normally, while small and medium - sized mills have flexible production schedules. Dealers' inventory reduction progress is average, and their purchasing attitude is cautious. Publication orders are being delivered, while social orders are in the off - season [2]. - In the Guangdong market, the mainstream negotiated price of high - white double - offset paper is 4900 - 5100 yuan/ton, and the price of natural - white double - offset paper is 4700 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous day. Social orders are weak, and dealers still face sales pressure. The recent commissioning of new production capacity in the South China region has led to a bearish market sentiment, but paper prices remain stable for now [2].