2025 年 12 月 31 日 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 尿素基本面数据 | | 项 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,743 | 1,735 | 8 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,749 | 1,735 | 1 4 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 172,512 | 114,679 | 57833 | | | （05合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 204,038 | 194,803 | 9235 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 12,381 | 10,750 | 1631 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 603,425 | 397,878 | 205547 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | -33 | -25 | - 8 | | | | 丰喜-盘面 | （运费约100元/吨） | -183 | -175 | - 8 | | | | 东光-盘 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Bullish policies have been implemented, and the market is expected to end 2025 on a relatively strong note [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Index Futures Data Tracking - On December 30, all the current - month contracts of the four major index futures rose. IF rose 0.28%, IH rose 0.03%, IC rose 0.44%, and IM rose 0.21% [1] - In terms of trading volume, the total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating increased trading enthusiasm among investors. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF decreased by 1,730 lots, IH increased by 1,667 lots, IC increased by 4,688 lots, and IM increased by 3,610 lots [1][2] - In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 5,274 lots, IH increased by 1,165 lots, IC increased by 13,084 lots, and IM increased by 11,019 lots [2] 3.2. Index Futures Basis - The basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM from December 4 - 30 are presented in graphical form [4] 3.3. Positions of the Top 20 Member Institutions in Index Futures - The increase or decrease in long and short positions of the top 20 member institutions in various index futures contracts (IF, IH, IC, IM) are provided, with some data not disclosed [5] 3.4. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [6] 3.5. Important Drivers - The Central Rural Work Conference was held in Beijing from December 29 - 30, deploying the work related to "agriculture, rural areas, and farmers" in 2026 [6] - The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released, with the first - batch of 62.5 billion yuan in funds allocated to support consumer goods trade - ins. The scope and subsidy ratio of some products have changed [7] - Near the end of the year, the property market received significant favorable policies, with the VAT levy rate for selling housing purchased for less than 2 years reduced from 5% to 3% starting from 2026 [7] 3.6. Stock Market Conditions - The Shanghai Composite Index fluctuated narrowly with rapid sector rotation. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.49%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.63%, and the Kechuang 50 rose 1.01%. The A - share market traded 2.16 trillion yuan [7] - The Hong Kong stock market oscillated higher, with the semiconductor and robot industry chains strengthening. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.86%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 1.74%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.12% [8] - The three major US stock indexes closed slightly lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2%, the S&P 500 Index fell 0.14%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.24% [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Iron ore is expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coil prices are likely to remain range-bound, supported by macro factors but constrained by the industry [2] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are expected to experience a bullish oscillation due to the game between long and short funds [2] - Coke is expected to experience high-level oscillations as the fourth round of price cuts begins [2] - Coking coal is expected to experience high-level oscillations due to year-end production cuts [2] - Logs are expected to experience low-level oscillations [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the I2605 futures contract was 789.0 yuan/ton, down 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.94% from the previous day. The open interest decreased by 16,080 lots to 613,601 lots. The prices of imported and domestic iron ore increased slightly, and the basis widened [5] - **Macro and Industry News**: From January to November, the total operating income of state-owned enterprises was 75.62576 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.0%; the total profit was 3.71945 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%; and the taxes payable were 5.2803 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2% [5] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [5] Rebar and Hot-Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the RB2605 and HC2605 futures contracts were 3,134 yuan/ton and 3,282 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.10%) and 11 yuan/ton (-0.33%) respectively. The open interest of RB2605 increased by 30,014 lots, and that of HC2605 increased by 7,022 lots. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed slightly [7] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 25, the weekly data from Steelhome showed that rebar production increased by 2.71 tons, hot-rolled coil production increased by 1.63 tons, and the total inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 36.79 tons. In mid-December 2025, the average daily output of key steel enterprises decreased, and the steel inventory increased. The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products. In mid-November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities decreased. In October 2025, China's steel imports decreased [9] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of rebar and hot-rolled coil are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [10] Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the Ferrosilicon2603 and Ferrosilicon2605 futures contracts were 5,750 yuan/ton and 5,706 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan/ton. The closing prices of the Silicomanganese2603 and Silicomanganese2605 futures contracts were 5,942 yuan/ton and 5,948 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton and 60 yuan/ton respectively. Spot prices increased, and the basis and spreads changed [11] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions increased. The export tariffs of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese will remain unchanged in 2026. In December, the average operating rate of ferrosilicon enterprises decreased, and the production decreased year-on-year. The production in Ningxia and Shaanxi increased compared with November [12][13] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the JM2605 and J2605 futures contracts were 1,119.5 yuan/ton and 1,715 yuan/ton, up 31.5 yuan/ton (2.9%) and 34.5 yuan/ton (2.1%) respectively. Spot prices remained stable, and the basis and spreads changed [15] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, the CCI metallurgical coal index and the Mysteel metallurgical coke (dry quenching) domestic spot price index remained unchanged [15] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0, indicating a neutral outlook [18] Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of the 2603, 2605, and 2607 futures contracts were 776, 787.5, and 796.5 respectively, with small fluctuations in prices and trading volumes. Spot prices remained stable [19] - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 29, the State Council Tariff Commission issued the "2026 Tariff Adjustment Plan", which will be implemented from January 1, 2026 [21] - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [21]

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：以旧换新补贴符合预期，动力需求仍有支撑 | 4 | | 工业硅：关注上游工厂减产节奏 | 6 | | 多晶硅：区间震荡，关注行情波动 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 2025年12月31日 2025 年 12 月 31 日 镍：资金与产业力量博弈，关注结构机会的出现 不锈钢：基本面约束弹性，但关注印尼政策风险 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 132,390 | 6,680 | 8,950 | 20,100 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The policy of exempting VAT on the sale of homes held for over 2 years by individuals starting from 2026 will promote the activity of the second - hand housing market and drive the linkage effect between first - hand and second - hand housing [7][8]. - For copper, although price increases may suppress domestic demand, the long - term driving logic remains unchanged, and short - term adjustments provide opportunities for long - term buying [9][10]. - Glass is expected to be strong in the short - term and fluctuate in the medium - term [11]. - For live pigs, the pressure on supply will be concentrated in January, and there are opportunities to short near - month contracts at high prices [12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Real Estate - **Policy Impact**: Starting from January 1, 2026, individuals selling homes held for over 2 years will be exempt from VAT, while those held for less than 2 years will be taxed at a 3% levy rate. This policy will reduce the cost of housing sales, stimulate housing consumption, and promote the activity of the second - hand housing market [7][8]. Metals Copper - **Supply - side**: The 2026 copper concentrate long - term benchmark price TC is set at $0/ton, and policies may lead to structural changes in the smelting industry [9]. - **Demand - side**: The long - term consumption recovery expectation is strong, especially driven by emerging industries such as computing power centers. However, high prices may suppress domestic demand [9][10]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term price adjustments are good entry points for long - term buying [10]. Glass - **Short - term Drivers**: Environmental protection issues in Hubei may lead to production cuts, the 01 contract's position - to - warrant ratio is unfavorable to shorts, and low prices in Hebei have stimulated market stocking [11]. - **Medium - term Outlook**: The market may fluctuate due to high inventory levels and weakening basis [11]. Live Pigs - **Market Situation**: In late December, there was a structural shortage of pigs, but the overall inventory change was small. The price increase in late December led to re - stocking, and the pressure will be postponed to January [12]. - **Supply and Demand in January**: The group's January sales plan may be slightly reduced, but the need to avoid selling during the Spring Festival will increase supply pressure. Demand in January may not increase significantly, and prices are expected to rise weakly [12]. Other Metals - **Gold**: Inflation is moderately falling [14]. - **Silver**: It is in a high - level adjustment [14]. - **Zinc**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [14]. - **Lead**: Inventory increases are pressuring prices [14]. - **Tin**: Supply has been disrupted again [14]. - **Aluminum**: It shows a strengthening and fluctuating trend [14]. - **Alumina**: It continues to be at the bottom [14]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [14]. - **Nickel**: There is a game between capital and industrial forces, and attention should be paid to the emergence of structural opportunities [14]. - **Stainless steel**: The fundamentals limit its elasticity, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [14]. Chemicals - **PX, PTA**: They are in a high - level fluctuating market. PX supply is increasing while demand is decreasing, and PTA supply is recovering while downstream profits are being squeezed [69][72][73]. - **MEG**: The upside space is limited, and it still faces medium - term pressure. Although there are expectations of load reduction, the inventory accumulation pattern is difficult to change [69][74]. - **Rubber**: It shows a wide - range fluctuation [75]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It is falling from a high level [78]. - **LLDPE**: The upstream inventory is transferred, and the basis is stable [81]. - **PP**: Multiple PDH units are planned to be overhauled in January, and the market is stabilizing and fluctuating [84]. - **Caustic soda**: Attention should be paid to the delivery pressure in January. The market is characterized by high production and high inventory [87][89]. - **Paper pulp**: It shows a fluctuating and strengthening trend [93]. - **Methanol**: It is strong in the short - term [102]. - **Urea**: The fluctuation center is moving up [107]. - **Styrene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [111]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market has little change [116]. - **LPG**: The CP in January is at a high level, and the night - session price has made up for the increase [118]. - **Propylene**: The spot supply and demand are tightening, and there is an expectation of a stop - falling and rebound [118]. - **PVC**: It shows a weak and fluctuating trend. The high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short - term [126][128]. Energy - **Fuel oil**: It is in a narrow - range adjustment and may remain strong in the short - term [129]. - **Low - sulfur fuel oil**: The night - session price has fallen, and the spot price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels is temporarily stable [129]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is fluctuating at a high level. The key issues for the 2602 contract are the height of freight rates, the inflection point time, and the rate of price decline. For the 2604 contract, shorting at high prices has a relatively high probability of winning [131][141][142][143]. Agricultural Products - **Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: They are fluctuating at a high level [145]. - **Offset - printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see [148]. - **Pure benzene**: It shows short - term fluctuations [153]. - **Palm oil**: It has a short - term rebound, but the driving force is weak [156]. - **Soybean oil**: It moves within a range, and attention should be paid to the month - spread opportunities [156]. - **Soybean meal**: It fluctuates, and holiday risks should be avoided [163]. - **Soybean**: It is advisable to be cautious and wait and see before the festival [164]. - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [167]. - **Sugar**: It is running weakly [171]. - **Cotton**: It maintains a fluctuating and strengthening trend [176]. - **Eggs**: They show short - term fluctuations [181]. - **Live pigs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, and the price is strong before the festival [184]. - **Peanuts**: Positions are being reduced before the festival [189].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings The report does not provide overall industry investment ratings. 2. Core Views - **Palm Oil**: Short - term rebound with weak driving forces [2][4] - **Soybean Oil**: Mainly trade within a range, focus on spread opportunities between contracts [2][4] - **Soybean Meal**: Trade in a range, avoid holiday risks [2][11] - **Soybean No.1**: Hedge risks before the holiday, observe cautiously [2][12] - **Corn**: Pay attention to the spot market [2][15] - **Sugar**: Trade weakly [2][19] - **Cotton**: Maintain a moderately strong oscillatory trend [2][24] - **Eggs**: Short - term oscillation [2][29] - **Hogs**: Contradictions continue to accumulate, prices are expected to be strong before the holiday [2][32] - **Peanuts**: Reduce positions before the holiday [2][37] 3. Summary by Commodity Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - **Fundamentals**: Palm oil's daily - session closing price was 8,658 yuan/ton with a 1.72% increase, and night - session closing price was 8,644 yuan/ton with a - 0.16% decrease. Soybean oil's daily - session closing price was 7,878 yuan/ton with a 0.77% increase, and night - session closing price was 7,886 yuan/ton with a 0.10% increase [5]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Private exporters reported selling 13.6 tons of soybeans to China and 23.1 tons to unknown destinations for 2025/2026 delivery. Brazil's December soybean export forecast was revised down to 302 tons from 357 tons, and December soybean meal export forecast was revised down to 187 tons from 200 tons [6][7][8]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both palm oil and soybean oil have a trend intensity of 0 [10]. Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - **Fundamentals**: DCE Soybean No.1 2605's daily - session closing price was 4224 yuan/ton with a + 65 (+ 1.56%) increase, and night - session closing price was 4237 yuan/ton with a + 33 (+ 0.78%) increase. DCE Soybean Meal 2605's daily - session closing price was 2778 yuan/ton with a - 10 (- 0.36%) decrease, and night - session closing price was 2771 yuan/ton with a + 3 (+ 0.11%) increase [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On December 30, CBOT soybean futures closed lower due to the promising South American soybean harvest. Private exporters reported sales of soybeans to China and unknown destinations for 2025/26 delivery. Brazil's soybean harvesting in some states and Argentina's soybean planting progress were reported [12][14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of 0 [14]. Corn - **Fundamentals**: The price of Guangdong Shekou was 2,440 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase. C2601's daily - session closing price was 2,303 yuan/ton with a 1.23% increase, and night - session closing price was 2,295 yuan/ton with a - 0.35% decrease [16]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The northern corn bulk - ship collection price increased slightly, and the container - shipped first - class grain price also rose. Import prices of some grains were reported [17]. - **Trend Intensity**: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [18]. Sugar - **Fundamentals**: The raw sugar price was 14.84 cents/pound with a - 0.42 decrease. The mainstream spot price was 5340 yuan/ton with no change [19]. - **Macro and Industry News**: As of December 15, the 25/26 sugar - making season's sugar production in India increased by 28.3% year - on - year. Brazil's November sugar export was 330 tons, a 9 - ton decrease year - on - year. China's November sugar import was 44 tons (- 9 tons) [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Sugar has a trend intensity of - 1 [22]. Cotton - **Fundamentals**: CF2605's daily - session closing price was 14,560 yuan/ton with a 0.87% increase, and night - session closing price was 14570 yuan/ton with a 0.07% - 0.15% change [24]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Cotton spot trading was mostly quiet. Cotton yarn prices were stable overall, but downstream demand was weak. ICE cotton futures fell for the third consecutive day [25]. - **Trend Intensity**: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [26]. Eggs - **Fundamentals**: Egg 2601's closing price was 3,072 yuan/500 kilograms with a 0.03% increase. Egg 2602's closing price was 2,938 yuan/500 kilograms with a - 0.03% decrease [29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [30]. Hogs - **Fundamentals**: The Henan spot price was 12530 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase. The futures prices of different contracts showed various changes, and trading volume and open interest also changed [33]. - **Market Information**: Several companies registered warehouse receipts in December [34]. - **Trend Intensity**: Hogs have a trend intensity of 0 [35]. Peanuts - **Fundamentals**: The price of Liaoning 308 common peanuts was 9,400 yuan/ton with no change. PK601's closing price was 8,078 yuan/ton with a 0.05% increase [37]. - **Spot Market Focus**: Peanut prices in different regions were stable, with varying levels of supply and demand [38]. - **Trend Intensity**: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping index (European line) fluctuated at a high level yesterday [11]. - For the 2602 contract, the core issues are freight rate height, inflection point time, and price - decline rate [11]. - For the 2604 contract, short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher win - rate, and its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index, with several potential upward risks in the next 1 - 2 months [13]. - For the 2610 contract, pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and set up short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: EC2602 closed at 1,795.1, down 2.08% with a trading volume of 24,777 and an open interest of 27,855 (down 2,582); EC2604 closed at 1,160.2, down 0.38% with a trading volume of 7,238 and an open interest of 21,241 (up 4) [1]. - **Freight Rate Index**: SCFIS European route was 1,742.64 points, up 9.7% week - on - week; SCFIS US - West route was 1,301.41 points, up 35.3% week - on - week. SCFI European route was $1,690/TEU, up 10.2% bi - weekly; SCFI US - West route was $2,188/FEU, up 9.8% bi - weekly [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: Different carriers' spot freight rates for the European line from Shanghai to Rotterdam vary, such as Maersk's $2,600/40'GP and $1,620/20'GP, with different voyage days [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 98.01, and the US dollar against offshore RMB was 7.00 [1]. 3.2 Capacity - In the past week, the absolute value of January capacity changed little, about 313,000 TEU/week, with a more even distribution of sailings in January. The fifth - week supply increased slightly to 328,000 TEU. February currently has 7 blank sailings and 5 pending sailings, with an average weekly capacity of 278,000 TEU/week (excluding the 5 pending sailings). GEMINI Alliance has released the Spring Festival suspension plan, while other carriers are expected to release theirs in early January [11]. 3.3 Analysis of Contracts - **2602 Contract** - **Freight Rate Height**: Maersk's rates increased by $100 in the third week. OA Alliance's OOCL's online prices are between $3,000 - $3,100/FEU, and Evergreen's offline prices are between $2,800 - $2,900/FEU. PA Alliance adjusted FAK to around $2,800/FEU in the first half of January [12]. - **Inflection Point Time**: With Maersk's price increase in the third week, the spot inflection point may be in the fourth week [12]. - **Price - decline Rate**: The initial decline after the freight rate peaks may be small, and the accelerated decline may start in the fifth week [12]. - **2604 Contract** - Short - selling on rallies has a relatively higher win - rate. Its bottom valuation can be anchored to the lowest point of the 2025 SCFIS index (1,031 points). There are several potential upward risks in the next 1 - 2 months, including contract - changing subsidy risks, margin - increasing and position - reducing risks before the Spring Festival, geopolitical risks during the festival, and carriers' price - increasing risks after the festival [13]. - **2610 Contract** - Pay attention to the progress of the second - stage peace talks in Gaza and set up short positions on rallies in the medium - to - long term [13]. 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of the container shipping index (European line) is 0, indicating a neutral trend [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai International Energy Exchange has issued a public consultation on the draft revision of the standard contract for the Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures. The proposed changes include adjusting the contract months and the minimum price change, which are expected to narrow the basis fluctuation and enrich arbitrage trading opportunities [1][2]. - After the contract modification, the basis fluctuation is expected to narrow, reducing the risk of industrial term trading and helping the real economy better manage risks using derivatives. Meanwhile, the arbitrage trading may become more diverse [2][15]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Contract Status and Pricing Mechanism - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) is a service - based, cash - settled futures. In the spot market, upstream concentration is high, and liner companies' pricing decisions rely on seasonality. In the futures market, participants usually anchor the spot rate and give a certain premium or discount to the far - month contracts based on historical freight seasonality [5]. - Since its listing in August 2023, the bi - monthly contract model has provided good liquidity. The participants are mainly individuals and private funds, with a relatively low proportion of industries, licensed institutions, and proprietary traders. In 2025, macro - events continuously disturbed the European line, and the market often completed the expected trading of far - month contracts in a short period, with increased concerns about tail risks as the "reality" approached [5]. 3.2 Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures Standard Contract (Revised Draft) - The contract months will be adjusted from "February, April, June, August, October, December" to "the nearest 1 - 6 consecutive months (excluding February) and the following two quarterly months". The number of listed contracts will increase from 6 to 7 - 8, facilitating industrial customers to match futures and spot expiration times and improve hedging efficiency. February contracts are excluded due to the relatively inactive spot market during the Spring Festival [1][10]. - The minimum price change will be adjusted from "0.1 point" to "0.5 point" [1][10]. 3.3 Potential Impact of Changing to the Consecutive Month Model 3.3.1 Basis Fluctuation Expected to Narrow, Promoting Industrial Hedging Participation - The Container Shipping Index (European Line) Futures is China's first shipping futures product. Since its listing in August 2023, the industrial upstream, midstream, and downstream have paid high attention, especially mid - stream freight forwarders actively participating in the spot - futures trading [14]. - The essence of spot - futures trading is basis change. With the modification of the contract to consecutive months, the basis fluctuation is expected to narrow, reducing the risk of industrial term trading and helping the real economy manage risks using derivatives [15]. 3.3.2 Arbitrage Trading May be More Diverse - In the past two years since the listing of EC, the main source of arbitrage trading income has been based on seasonality. If it changes to consecutive months, in addition to the existing arbitrage opportunities between bi - monthly contracts, potential opportunities such as 8 - 9 long spreads, 9 - 10 long spreads, 1 - 3 long spreads, and 12 - 01 short spreads can be focused on [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend, resistance, and support levels of various futures contracts on December 30, 2025, and the overall trend in December 2025 [2][5]. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Overview - On December 29, 2025, the performance of various futures contracts was mixed. Some contracts showed upward trends, while others declined. The overall market was volatile [14][37]. Stock Index Futures - On December 29, 2025, IF2603, IH2603, IC2603, and IM2603 all faced downward pressure. The short - term downward pressure on IF2603 and IC2603 increased, while that on IH2603 and IM2603 increased slightly [14][15]. - It is expected that in December 2025, the main continuous contracts of stock index futures will likely show a relatively strong and volatile trend. On December 30, 2025, they will likely show a relatively weak and volatile trend [19][20]. Precious Metal Futures - Gold: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AU2602 opened slightly lower, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [37]. - Silver: On December 29, 2025, the new main contract AG2604 opened slightly lower, with short - term upward momentum weakening and downward pressure increasing slightly. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [41]. - Platinum: On December 29, 2025, the main contract PT2606 opened with a gap up and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [48]. - Palladium: On December 29, 2025, the main contract PD2606 opened with a large gap down and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [51]. Base Metal Futures - Copper: On December 29, 2025, the main contract CU2602 opened slightly lower and showed a slight upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and reach a new high, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [59][61]. - Aluminum: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AL2602 opened slightly lower and showed an upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [66]. - Alumina: On December 29, 2025, the main contract AO2605 opened slightly higher and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong and widely volatile in December 2025, and relatively weak on December 30, 2025 [71]. - Tin: On December 29, 2025, the main contract SN2602 opened slightly higher and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [74]. Other Futures - Lithium Carbonate: On December 29, 2025, the main contract LC2605 opened slightly lower and closed at the daily limit down. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and relatively weak on December 30, 2025, with the price likely to hit the daily limit down [79]. - Rebar: On December 29, 2025, the main contract RB2605 opened flat and showed a slight upward trend. It is expected to be widely volatile in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [81]. - Iron Ore: On December 29, 2025, the main contract I2605 opened flat and showed an upward trend. It is expected to be relatively strong in December 2025 and widely volatile on December 30, 2025 [87]. - Coking Coal: On December 29, 2025, the main contract JM2605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be widely volatile and relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [92]. - Glass: On December 29, 2025, the main contract FG605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [97]. - Soda Ash: On December 29, 2025, the main contract SA605 opened slightly lower and showed a downward trend. It is expected to be relatively weak in December 2025 and relatively strong on December 30, 2025 [102]. Macro - news and Market Information - Domestic news includes military exercises by the Chinese People's Liberation Army, tariff adjustments, financial data of state - owned enterprises, regulatory policies of the State Administration for Market Regulation, and the implementation of the digital RMB interest - bearing plan [7][8]. - International news includes statements by US President Trump, the meeting between Trump and the Ukrainian President, the US government's investigation of large enterprises, and the increase in pending home sales in the US [8][9]. - Precious metals experienced a sharp decline on "Black Monday." The increase in trading margins by the CME Group led to a decline in international metal futures prices [9][10].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 铝：跟随铜 氧化铝：横盘震荡 铸造铝合金：小幅下跌 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22570 | 1 ୧୧ | 350 | 1040 | 1875 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22320 | ー | l | l | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2951 | -6 | 10 | 144 | 348 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 618625 | 264988 | 364696 | 448782 | 517090 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 289255 | -10386 | -25044 | -49327 | 91862 | | ...