二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 09 月 14 日 生猪：堰塞湖显现，近端中枢待下移 周小球 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 报告导读： （1）本周市场回顾（9.8-9.14） 现货市场，生猪价格弱势运行。河南 20KG 仔猪价格 27.4 元/公斤（上周 29.4 元/公斤），本周河南 生猪价格 13.48 元/公斤（上周 14.03 元/公斤），全国 50KG 二元母猪价格 1595 元/头（上周 1596 元/ 头）。供应端，集团出栏进度整体偏慢，散户出栏意愿略提升，供应偏宽松；需求端，短期消费弱势，宰 量低位运行。根据卓创资讯数据，本周全国出栏平均体重 124.42KG（上周 123.93KG），出栏均重环比上 升 0.4%。 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货市场，生猪期货价格弱势运行。本周生猪期货 LH2511 合约最高价为 13435 元/吨，最低价为 13145 元/吨，收盘价为 13255 元/吨（上周同期 13325 元/吨）。基差方面，LH2509 合约 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term outlook for the peanut futures market is weak [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - In the spot market, peanut prices initially rose but then fell. The national average price of general - purpose peanuts was 4.15 yuan per catty as of September 11, down 0.07 yuan per catty week - on - week. The price increase in some areas was due to factors such as the end of spring peanut sales by farmers in some regions and the impact of rainy weather on new peanut listing. However, the subsequent increase in the supply of new peanuts from Hebei and other places and weak downstream procurement led to price declines [1]. - In the futures market, the peanut futures rose in the week of September 12. The main peanut contract (PK2511) had a high of 7,884 yuan per ton, a low of 7,750 yuan per ton, and a closing price of 7,774 yuan per ton (compared to 7,826 yuan per ton the previous week) [1]. - Looking ahead, in the spot market, the new peanuts in Henan are affected by rainfall, with water and quality issues restricting effective supply. In late September, peanuts from Hebei, Shandong, and other regions will be listed, bringing phased supply pressure. In the futures market, it is expected to be weak in the short - term, with prices likely to face pressure again when Henan's wheat - stubble peanuts and Northeast Baisha peanuts are concentratedly listed at the end of September and early October [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Basis and Spread - The basis of Henan Baisha general - purpose peanuts and Sudan refined peanuts shows different trends over the years. The 11 - 1 spread has weakened [5][6]. - The price of new Baisha peanuts in Henan Zhumadian decreased by about 440 yuan per ton week - on - week, a decline of 5.0%. The prices of new Baisha in Henan Huangludian and new large peanuts in Henan were basically flat week - on - week. The price of old Japanese peanuts in Liaoning was basically flat week - on - week, and the new 308 peanuts in Liaoning were just launched this week without comparable prices [6]. 3.2 Price Data - The arrival volume of 6 oil - type peanut markets was about 0.77 million tons, down 4.36% week - on - week and 34.34% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 14 commercial peanut markets was about 0.4 million tons, up 8.25% week - on - week and down 5.91% year - on - year. The arrival volume of 20 domestic markets was about 1.17 million tons, down 0.38% week - on - week and 26.74% year - on - year [7]. 3.3 Supply - There are data on the arrival volume of different types of peanut markets over the years, including oil - type peanut markets, commercial peanut markets, and domestic markets, which can reflect the supply situation [7][9][13]. 3.4 Demand - The arrival volume of sample oil mills was about 0.52 million tons, up 21.38% week - on - week but down 70.04% year - on - year. The mainstream price of domestic first - grade peanut oil was 14,500 - 15,200 yuan per ton, with stable quotes but some negotiation space in actual transactions. The terminal consumption market was weak. The mainstream price of peanut meal was 3,200 - 3,300 yuan per ton, with stable quotes but negotiable actual transactions. The terminal aquaculture industry's support for raw material procurement was limited, and the overall market transaction was light. The theoretical profit of peanut processing in some domestic oil mills this week was 15.9 yuan per ton, up 100 yuan per ton from last week. The comprehensive startup rate of sample enterprises was 7.22%, the same as last week and down 2.17% from the same period last year. The peanut crushing volume of sample oil mills was about 1.28 million tons, basically the same as last week and down 23.11% year - on - year [14]. 3.5 Inventory - There are data on the peanut inventory and peanut oil inventory of sample oil mills over the years, which can reflect the inventory situation of the peanut industry [18].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international sugar market is expected to operate weakly. The industry is in a pattern of strong current situation but weak expectations. The global sugar supply was in a large shortage in the 24/25 sugar season, while the north and south hemispheres are expected to have a restorative increase in production and inventory in the 25/26 sugar season. The New York raw sugar is expected to have a weak and volatile trend [3][30]. - The domestic sugar market has a bearish basis. In the 24/25 sugar season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increase and cost decrease, with tightened import policies for syrup and premixed powder. In the 25/26 sugar season, the sugar yield in Guangxi is expected to decline and the production cost to rise. Zhengzhou sugar futures will follow the trend of raw sugar, and the trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm [3][30]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.62 (previous value: 97.74), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.37 (previous value: 5.40) [6]. - Crude oil: The WTI crude oil price is $62.6 per barrel (+1.02%) [6]. 2. Industry Data 2.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract of New York raw sugar is 15.81 cents per pound (+1.48%). The spot price of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, up 30 yuan per ton from last week; the main contract of Zhengzhou sugar futures is at 5,540 yuan per ton, up 17 yuan per ton from last week; the basis of the main contract has increased slightly. CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption to be 15.8 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar season, domestic sugar production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons [14]. - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou white sugar were 11,599 lots [14]. - CFTC latest position report (New York raw sugar): As of September 9, long positions of funds decreased by 13,118 lots, short positions increased by 31,561 lots, and net long positions decreased by 44,679 lots year - on - year to - 152,698 lots, a significant decrease in net long positions [14]. 2.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: ISO expects a supply shortage of 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season and 0.23 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season [19]. - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a 6.6% decrease from the same period last year; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a 4.7% decrease; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a 12% decrease; the cumulative sugar - using cane ratio was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period last year [19]. - India: As of May 15, in the 24/25 sugar season, India produced 25.74 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 34.9 million tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [19]. - Thailand: In the 24/25 sugar season, Thailand produced 10.08 million tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [20]. - China: CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season to be 11.16 million tons, consumption 15.8 million tons, and imports 5 million tons; in the 25/26 sugar season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that in July 2025, 0.74 million tons of sugar were imported, and the cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 sugar season were 3.25 million tons [20]. 3. Operation Suggestions - International market: It is expected to operate weakly. Pay attention to the production and export rhythm in Brazil and relevant industrial policies in India [3][30]. - Domestic market: The basis is bearish. The trading rhythm will revolve around the import rhythm. Pay attention to the import situation of sugar, syrup, and premixed powder [3][30].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the corn market, including a review of the current situation and a forward - looking analysis. It suggests paying attention to the new grain listing situation. With new grain about to be listed, the price is expected to decline seasonally, but the decline rate may be slow due to low carry - over stocks. The market will be mainly volatile in the short term [6]. 3. Section Summaries Corn Market Review - **Spot Market**: In the week of September 12, the corn spot price rebounded slightly. As of September 12, the national average corn price was 2366.08 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton from the previous week. Different regions had different price ranges, such as 2300 - 2420 yuan/ton in Shandong's deep - processing industry [1]. - **Futures Market**: In the week of September 12, the futures market declined. The main contract (C2511) had a high of 2234 yuan/ton, a low of 2192 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 2197 yuan/ton (compared to 2224 yuan/ton the previous week). The basis of the corn main C2511 contract strengthened from 46 yuan/ton on September 5 to 102 yuan/ton on September 12 [2]. Corn Market Outlook - **CBOT Corn**: In the week of September 12, CBOT corn futures rose 2.87%. The US Department of Agriculture raised the US corn export forecast to a record level, offsetting the pressure of record - high production. Although the yield per acre was lowered, the planting area was increased, leading to an increase in production and a decrease in ending stocks [3]. - **Wheat Price and Corn Auction**: As of the week of September 11, the wheat price was stable at 2431 yuan/ton. The demand side was sluggish. Corn auction results showed different transaction rates for different types of auctions. The new - season corn's upcoming listing will reduce the feed substitution advantage of wheat [4]. - **Corn Starch Inventory**: As of the week of September 11, the total inventory of corn starch in the main producing areas was 875,200 tons, a slight decrease of 16,500 tons (1.85%) from the previous period, but an increase of 10.42% compared to the same period last year. Due to pre - holiday stocking, the downstream demand improved, and the inventory pressure eased [5]. - **New Grain Listing**: The prices of dry and wet grains are diverging, with the Northeast being slightly stronger and North China being weaker. As new summer corn gradually comes on the market, it is in a seasonal downward trend. The supply of new grain is expected to increase in late September, and the futures market will be mainly volatile in the short term [6].

张雪慧 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015363 zhangxuehui022447@gtjas.com 【正文】 表 1：期权市场数据统计 | 标的市场统计 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 成交量(亿 | 成交变化 | 当月 | 当月基差 | 次月 | 次月基差 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 手) | (亿手) | 合成期货 | | 合成期货 | | | 上证50指数 | 2968.54 | -14.54 | 61.71 | -6.62 | 2968.27 | -0.27 | 2970.27 | 1.73 | | 沪深300指数 | 4522.00 | -26.04 | 266.44 | 13.18 | 4523.93 | 1.94 | 4520.20 | -1.80 | | 中证1000指数 | 7422.88 | 23.00 | 315.84 | 21.86 | 7389.47 | -33.42 | 7326.73 | -96.15 | | 上证50ETF | 3.104 | -0.018 | 6.95 | -6 ...

| 有色及贵金属日度数据简报 | 2025/9/11 | 李先飞 | 王蓉 | 刘雨萱 | Z0012691 | Z0020476 | Z0002529 | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国泰君安期货研究所有 | jixianfei@gtht.com | wangrong2@gtht.com | liuyuxuan@gtht.com | 色及贵金属组 | 王宗源(联系人) | 张再宇 | F03142619 | Z0021479 | | | | | | | | | zhangzaiyu@gtht.com | wangzongyuan@gtht.com | 黄金 (AU) | 上月 | 今天 | 前一交易日 | 上周 | | | | | | | | | | | 指标名称 | 2025/9/11 | 2025/9/10 | 2025/9/4 | 2025/8/14 | 沪金主力收盘价(元/克) | -2. 64 | ...

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 12 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：弱势运行 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20915 | 125 | 310 | ૩૨૨ | 820 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 21005 | l | l | l | l | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2679 | 57 | 89 | 114 | 214 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 106885 | 13636 | -44331 | ୧୫୫୪ | -27009 | | | 电解铝 | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 204582 | 8142 | -2035 | -21363 | 1021 ...

2025 年 09 月 12 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：跟随美豆反弹，等待 USDA 供需报告 豆一：反弹震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 9 月 11 日 CBOT 大豆日评：供需报告出台在即，仓位调整活跃，大豆上涨。北京德润林 2025 年 9 月 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 | | | 收盘价 （日盘） | 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2511 （元/吨） | 3911 | -60（-0.13%） | 3957 | +31 （+0.79%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2601 （元/吨） | 3066 | -10（-0.33%） | 3090 | +15（+0.49%） | | | CBOT大豆11 （美分/蒲） | 1034 +9 | （+0.88%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕12 （美元/短吨） | 287.7 | ...

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an investment rating for the industry. Core View - The stock index futures are expected to fluctuate with a slight upward trend, and investors are advised not to chase the market excessively [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Stock Index Futures Data Tracking - On September 11, all the current-month contracts of the four major stock index futures rose. IF rose 2.64%, IH rose 1.56%, IC rose 3.44%, and IM rose 2.94% [1]. - On the trading day, the total trading volume of stock index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. Specifically, the total trading volume of IF increased by 38,933 lots, IH by 17,746 lots, IC by 61,198 lots, and IM by 43,013 lots. In terms of positions, the total positions of IF increased by 6,664 lots, IH by 8,511 lots, IC by 18,948 lots, and IM by 4,629 lots [2]. 2. Basis and Position Changes of Futures Contracts - The report provides the basis data of IF, IH, IC, and IM futures contracts, as well as the position changes of the top 20 member futures companies [1][5]. 3. Trend Intensity and Key Drivers - The trend intensity of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with -2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [6]. - The State Council has approved a two - year comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation in 10 regions, including the Beijing Sub - center and the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The National Development and Reform Commission stated that this is a key step in building a unified national market, and the pilot is expected to be completed by 2027 [6][7]. 4. Market Performance - The three major US stock indexes reached new highs due to the moderate US CPI and a surge in jobless claims. Chinese concept stocks rebounded strongly. In the A - share market, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3,875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36%, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15%. The trading volume of A - shares reached 2.46 trillion yuan, up from 2 trillion yuan the previous day [7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints Through macro - fundamental analysis and technical analysis such as the golden ratio line, horizontal line, and moving average, the report predicts the trend of various futures on September 12, 2025, including whether they will be in a strong or weak oscillation, and provides corresponding support and resistance levels [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Forecast - **Strong Oscillation Futures**: Index futures (IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, IM2509), silver futures (AG2510), copper futures (CU2510), aluminum futures (AL2510), and polysilicon futures (PS2511) are expected to be in a strong oscillation [2][3][4]. - **Weak Oscillation Futures**: Alumina futures (AO2601), rebar futures (RB2601), hot - rolled coil futures (HC2601), coking coal futures (JM2601), glass futures (FG601), crude oil futures (SC2510), PTA futures (TA601), and PVC futures (V2601) are expected to be in a weak oscillation [3][4][7]. - **Wide - range Oscillation Futures**: Ten - year Treasury bond futures (T2512), thirty - year Treasury bond futures (TL2512), lithium carbonate futures (LC2511), and iron ore futures (I2601) are expected to be in a wide - range oscillation [3][4]. - **Oscillation and Consolidation Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) and soda ash futures (SA601) are expected to oscillate and consolidate [3][5]. 3.2 Macro News and Trading Tips - **International Trade**: Mexico plans to raise import tariffs, and China will take necessary measures to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests. China and Indonesia have launched a bilateral currency settlement framework and QR code interconnection cooperation project [7]. - **Bond Market**: The yield of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds in China has declined, and the market's expectation of the central bank restarting Treasury bond trading operations has increased. The international central bank's gold reserve ratio has exceeded that of US Treasury bonds for the first time since 1996 [8][10]. - **Reform and Policy**: China will conduct a comprehensive reform pilot of factor market allocation in 10 regions. The Fourth Global Digital Trade Expo will be held in Hangzhou, and China will encourage foreign investment in the digital field. The government will also support foreign - trade enterprises to stabilize the foreign - trade market [8][9]. - **Medical and Health**: China has built the world's largest medical service system, with the basic medical insurance covering over 1.3 billion people, and the per - capita life expectancy has increased [9]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, the US CPI was in line with expectations, and the number of initial jobless claims reached a new high since October 2021. Traders expect the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of the year [10]. 3.3 Futures Market Analysis and Forecast - **Index Futures**: On September 11, 2025, major index futures such as IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 generally showed a trend of opening low, then rising after a decline, with varying degrees of increase. The A - share market had a large - scale increase, with the ChiNext Index rising by 5.15% and regaining the 3000 - point mark [13][14][15]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The ten - year Treasury bond futures (T2512) and thirty - year Treasury bond futures (TL2512) showed an oscillatory trend on September 11, with the former rising slightly and the latter falling slightly [36][39]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: Gold futures (AU2510) and silver futures (AG2510) had a slight decline and a slight increase respectively on September 11. Technically, gold futures still show a long - term upward trend [41][47]. - **Base Metal Futures**: Copper futures (CU2510), aluminum futures (AL2510), and alumina futures (AO2601) had different trends on September 11, with copper and aluminum showing a slight increase and alumina showing a weak upward trend [52][57][62]. - **Energy and Chemical Futures**: Crude oil futures (SC2510) rose slightly on September 11, while PTA futures (TA601) and PVC futures (V2601) had different trends, with PTA showing a weak downward pressure and PVC rising slightly [95][99][101]. - **Building Materials and Steel Futures**: Rebar futures (RB2601), hot - rolled coil futures (HC2601), iron ore futures (I2601), coking coal futures (JM2601), and glass futures (FG601) had different trends on September 11, with some showing a downward trend and some showing an upward trend [73][75][78]. - **New Energy Futures**: Polysilicon futures (PS2511) and lithium carbonate futures (LC2511) rose on September 11, with polysilicon rising more significantly [66][67]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: Soda ash futures (SA601) rose slightly on September 11 [91].