2025 年 12 月 30 日 铝：跟随铜 氧化铝：横盘震荡 铸造铝合金：小幅下跌 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22570 | 1 ୧୧ | 350 | 1040 | 1875 | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22320 | ー | l | l | - | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2951 | -6 | 10 | 144 | 348 | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 618625 | 264988 | 364696 | 448782 | 517090 | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 289255 | -10386 | -25044 | -49327 | 91862 | | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The report focuses on the copper market, indicating that copper prices are experiencing a correction due to capital liquidation. It also presents various fundamental data and macro - industry news, with a copper trend intensity of - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Price**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main - contract was 98,860 with a daily increase of 0.14%, and the night - session closing price was 96,060 with a decrease of 2.83%. The LME copper 3M electronic - disk closing price was 12,188 with a daily increase of 0.45% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper index was 974,647, an increase of 424,617 from the previous day, and the open interest was 642,644, a decrease of 12,092. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic - disk was 64,636, an increase of 46,441, and the open interest was 341,000, an increase of 1,268 [1]. - **Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 65,878, an increase of 7,231, and the LME copper inventory was 154,575, a decrease of 2,450. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 28.51%, a decrease of 1.12 percentage points [1]. - **Spreads**: There are multiple spread data, such as the LME copper spot - to - futures spread increased by 6.53, the spot - to - near - month futures spread decreased by 10, etc [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: From January to November, the national large - scale industrial enterprises' total profit was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). The profit in November decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [1]. - **Industry**: Peru extended the temporary licenses of small - scale miners until the end of 2026. Kazakhstan's refined copper production from January to November 2025 increased by 2.5% year - on - year to 431,998 tons. China's copper ore and concentrate imports in November 2025 were 2,526,194.63 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. Chile initiated the preliminary mediation process for the labor - management contract negotiation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The copper trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, and the value ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆仍收跌，连粕或跟随调整 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2605（元/吨） | 4156 +31 | （+0.75%） | 4180 | +21 （+0.50%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2605（元/吨） | 2774 | -8（-0.29%） | 2776 | -12 （-0.43%） | | | CBOT大豆03（美分/蒲） | 1063.75 | -8.0（-0.75%） | | | | | CBOT豆粕03（美元/短吨） | 303.5 -3.9 | （-1.27%） | | n a | | | | | 豆粕 （43%） | | | | | | 较昨-30至+10； 3120～3160， | | 现货基差M2605+350， | 较 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 30 日 铂：资金离场开启回撤 钯： 跟随铂金撤步 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 产 业 服 务 研 究 所 期货研究 【宏观及行业新闻】（资料来源：金十数据） 铂钯基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | | 涨幅 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 铂金期货2606 | 634. 35 | | -10.06% | | | | 金交所铂金 | 637. 15 | | -3.78% | | | | 纽约铂主连(前日) | 2138. 90 | | -14.92% | | | | 伦敦现货铂金(前日) | 2102. 50 | | -14. 52% | | | | 锂金期货2606 | 494. 10 | | -4. 18% | | | | 人民币现货纪金 | 489.00 | | 13.99% | | | 价格 | 纽约锂主连(前日) | 1.695.50 | | -17.71% | | | | 伦敦现货锂金(前日) | 1.621. ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - The game between bulls and bears in the lithium carbonate market has intensified, and attention should be paid to the restocking demand after the price correction [1]. - The demand for new energy lithium batteries in China at the beginning of 2026 is expected to decline significantly compared with the fourth quarter of 2025, and battery manufacturers are expected to cut production and take holidays to cope with the demand fluctuations [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For the 2601 contract, the closing price was 117,980, down 9,820 from the previous day; the trading volume was 18,938, an increase of 6,166; the open interest was 18,871, a decrease of 3,006. For the 2605 contract, the closing price was 118,820, down 11,700; the trading volume was 688,764, an increase of 260,048; the open interest was 512,345, a decrease of 64,690 [1]. - **Basis and Price Spreads**: The basis of spot - 2601 was 20, and the basis of spot - 2605 was - 820. The price spread between 2601 and 2605 was - 840, and the price spread between electric carbon and industrial carbon was 3,000 [1]. - **Raw Materials and Lithium Salts**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,545, up 55; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 3,400, up 45. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,000, up 6,100; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000, up 5,750 [1]. Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 117,013 yuan/ton, up 5,331 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 118,000 yuan/ton, up 6,100 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 115,000 yuan/ton, up 5,750 yuan/ton [2]. - Longpan Technology's subsidiary will conduct maintenance on some production lines from January 1, 2026, for about one month, with an expected reduction of about 5,000 tons of lithium iron phosphate production, which is not expected to have a significant impact on the company's 2026 operating performance [3]. - The demand for new energy lithium batteries in China at the beginning of 2026 is expected to decline significantly due to factors such as the adjustment of vehicle purchase tax policies, the end - of - year subsidy rush in the commercial vehicle market, and weak overseas and domestic storage demand [3]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish sentiment [3].

2025 年 12 月 30 日 商 品 研 究 螺纹钢：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 热轧卷板：宏观托底产业压制，钢价维持区间 震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,130 | 22 | 0.71 | | | HC2605 | 3,287 | 18 | 0.55 | | 期 货 | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,051,146 | 1,530,792 | -3,632 | | | HC2605 | 511,982 | 1,276,297 | 43,907 | | | | 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 前日价格 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 33 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - LME lead inventory decreased, which limited the price decline [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17,490 yuan/ton, down 0.37%; the closing price of LME lead 3M electronic disk was $1,999.5/ton, up 0.83% [1] - **Volume**: The trading volume of SHFE lead main contract was 84,769 lots, an increase of 26,000; the trading volume of LME lead was 3,806 lots, a decrease of 1,794 [1] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of SHFE lead main contract was 54,475 lots, a decrease of 1,083; the open interest of LME lead was 177,974 lots, a decrease of 181 [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -$37.81/ton, an increase of $4.49 [1] - **Import Profit and Loss**: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was 288.1 yuan/ton, an increase of 50.11; the import profit and loss of SHFE lead continuous third contract was 213.18 yuan/ton, an increase of 75.78 [1] - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead futures inventory was 11,583 tons, an increase of 25; the LME lead inventory was 244,275 tons, a decrease of 4,625 [1] - **Recycled Lead**: The price of recycled electric vehicle batteries was 9,950 yuan/ton, an increase of 25; the comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was 413 yuan/ton, an increase of 126 [1] 3.2 News - From January to November, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China was 6.62686 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% (previous value 1.9%); the operating income was 125.34 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6% (previous value 1.8%). In November, the profit decreased by 13.1% year - on - year (previous value - 5.5%) [2] - Ukrainian President Zelensky planned to meet with US President Trump in Florida on the 28th to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine and some "sensitive" issues [2] - The lead trend strength was 0, indicating a neutral view [2]

2025 年 12 月 30 日 短纤：高位震荡 20251230 瓶片：高位震荡 20251230 钱嘉寅 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023476 qianjiayin@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2601 | 6482 | 6612 | -130 | PF01-02 | -58 | -54 | -4 | | PF | 短纤2602 | 6540 | 6666 | -126 | PF02-03 | 6 | 132 | -126 | | | 短纤2603 | 6534 | ୧୧34 | 0 | PF主力基差 | -10 | -96 | 86 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 188044 | 240005 | -51961 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6.530 | 6,570 | -40 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | 198026 昨日 | 200582 前日 | -2556 变化 | 短纤产销率 | 90% ...

工业硅：关注上游工厂减产情况 多晶硅：区间震荡，波动放大 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 30 日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） Si2605成交量（手） | 8,715 382,415 | -165 -152,155 | 120 75,473 | -400 58,891 | | | | Si2605持仓量（手） | 221,065 | -3,677 | -541 | -16,583 | | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | PS2605收盘价（元/吨） | 56,500 | -2,455 | -2,345 | - | | | | PS2605成交量（手） | 69,428 | -61,662 | -143,852 | - | ...

【现货消息】 12 月 29 日周末淄博市场走货不佳，低高度碱价格同步下调，其他地区虽挂牌价格变化不大，但成交也 有优惠空间。高度碱内外贸订单寥寥，部分企业也继续下调。 从基本面看，烧碱仍是高产量、高库存格局。需求端，氧化铝供应过剩格局短期仍未改变，减产预期压 制对烧碱的囤货，同时非铝下游面临季节性刚需下滑，出口承压，整体需求难有支撑。供应端看，冬季本身 是氯碱企业检修淡季，高开工情况下，烧碱供应压力较大，企业面临高库存的压力，上周烧碱去库，但春节 前仍面临降价去库的压力。 期货研究 烧碱：关注 1 月交割压力 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2232 710 2219 -13 2025 年 12 月 30 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【市场状况分析】 整体看，厂家不减产，烧碱反弹空间或有限。01 合约烧碱仓单量或较多，关注 1 月交割压力。 【趋势强度】 烧碱趋势强度：-1 注：趋势强度取值范围为【-2,2】区间整数。强弱程度分类如 ...