Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of copper is rising due to the weakening US dollar [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,410 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 79,680 with a night - session increase of 0.34%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,906 with a daily increase of 0.68% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 71,061, a decrease of 2,342 from the previous day, and the open interest was 173,826, an increase of 4,829. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 23,251, an increase of 8,980, and the open interest was 268,000, an increase of 474 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 21,412, an increase of 180. The LME copper inventory was 158,900, an increase of 950, and the注销仓单比 was 8.21%, a decrease of 0.08% [1] - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper basis, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - month spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the LME copper basis increased by 2.53 to - 80.26 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact was still controllable. The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market and promote a new round of capital market reform and opening up [1] - **Industry News**: The US government proposed to include copper, silicon, silver, etc. in the list of critical minerals. Freeport's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik factory in early September. Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba. The drainage of the eastern section of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Africa will enable it to resume production capacity early next year [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook on copper prices [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The report indicates that iron ore is experiencing repeated macro - expectations and is in a wide - range shock state [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of iron ore futures was 787.5 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 3.0 yuan/ton and a decline rate of 0.38%. The position was 473,608 lots, with an increase of 1,118 lots [1]. - **Spot Price**: Imported ore prices (such as 65% Karara fines, 61.5% PB fines, 61% Jinbuba ore) decreased by 2.0 yuan/ton, while 56.5% Super Special ore remained unchanged. Domestic ore prices (66% Langna ore, 65% Laiwu ore) remained stable [1]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis (12601 vs Super Special) increased by 3.0 to 93.9, and the basis (12601 vs Jinbuba) increased by 0.8 to 44.2. Spreads such as 12509 - 12601 decreased by 5.0 to 15.5, and 12601 - 12605 decreased by 1.0 to 24.0. The difference between Karara fines and PB fines remained at 112.0, and the difference between PB fines and Super Special decreased by 2.0 to 108.0 [1]. Macro and Industry News - According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics on August 31, the Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of iron ore is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the range of trend intensity being [-2, 2], where - 2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [1].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is in a volatile situation. Near - term, the futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports, but domestic demand is stable. The warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact, and the quality of the peak season depends on export performance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 2670, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price is 2719, and the basis is 49 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda price in Shandong remained stable today, with little price change. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries [2] Market Condition Analysis - In the past week, the caustic soda futures price corrected, mainly due to near - month warehouse receipts (mostly from Zhejiang, posing high pressure on near - month long positions) and weak exports (sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, poor export signing, and weak 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali price difference). Domestic demand is stable, non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season, alumina production is at a high level, and there is an expected new production capacity of 360 million tons in Guangxi at the end of this year, which may drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

2025 年 9 月 1 日 鸡蛋：近端博弈较强 吴昊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 wuhao8@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 鸡蛋基本面数据 | | 合 约 | 收盘价 | 日涨跌 （%） | 成交变动 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期 货 | 鸡蛋2510 | 2,939 | -0.41 | -56,774 | -35,182 | | | 鸡蛋2601 | 3,322 | 0.24 | -1,064 | 354 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | 价 差 | 鸡蛋10-12价差 | | -196 | | -166 | | | 鸡蛋10-1价差 | | -383 | | -380 | | | | | 最新日 | | 前一日 | | | 辽宁现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.30 | | | 河北现货价格 | | 2.71 | | 2.71 | | 产业链数据 | 山西现货价格 | | 3.20 | | 3.20 | | | 湖北现货价格 | | 3.18 | | 3.18 | | | | | 最新日 | ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints The market sentiment for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is weak, and they are expected to fluctuate weakly [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - Ferrosilicon 2511 closed at 5566, down 58 from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 260,904 and an open interest of 222,851. Ferrosilicon 2601 closed at 5534, down 70, with a trading volume of 62,463 and an open interest of 100,482 [1]. - Silicomanganese 2511 closed at 5776, down 52, with a trading volume of 74,310 and an open interest of 104,052. Silicomanganese 2601 closed at 5792, down 50, with a trading volume of 207,581 and an open interest of 325,851 [1]. - **Spot Data**: - The price of ferrosilicon:FeSi75 - B in Inner Mongolia was 5300 yuan/ton, down 50. The price of silicomanganese:FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia was 5700 yuan/ton, down 20 [1]. - The price of manganese ore:Mn44 block was 39.5 yuan/ton - degree, and the price of semi - coke small material in Shenmu was 650 yuan/ton [1]. - **Price Spreads**: - For ferrosilicon, the spot - 11 futures spread was - 266 yuan/ton, up 8; the 2511 - 2601 spread was 32 yuan/ton, up 12 [1]. - For silicomanganese, the spot - 01 futures spread was - 92 yuan/ton, up 32; the 2511 - 2601 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, down 2 [1]. - The cross - variety spread of silicomanganese 2511 - ferrosilicon 2511 was 210 yuan/ton, up 6; the silicomanganese 2601 - ferrosilicon 2601 spread was 258 yuan/ton, up 20 [1]. b. Macro and Industry News - On August 29, the price of ferrosilicon 72 in Shaanxi was 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5300 - 5400 yuan/ton (down 50), and in Inner Mongolia 5300 - 5500 yuan/ton. The price of ferrosilicon 75 in Shaanxi was 5900 - 5950 yuan/ton, in Ningxia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Qinghai 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, in Gansu 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton, and in Inner Mongolia 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton. The FOB price of ferrosilicon 72 was 1040 - 1060 dollars/ton (up 10), and that of 75 was 1100 - 1130 dollars/ton [2]. - The northern quotation of silicomanganese 6517 was 5700 - 5800 yuan/ton, and the southern quotation was 5800 - 5850 yuan/ton [2]. - In August, there were 13 operating ferrosilicon enterprises in Ningxia, with 41 operating submerged arc furnaces. The operating rate was 46.59%, the same as in July, and the output was expected to be 12.46 million tons, an increase of 0.23 million tons from July, with a capacity utilization rate of 53.57% [2]. - As of this Friday, the manganese ore inventory at Tianjin Port was 362.7 million tons, up 1.42 million tons; at Qinzhou Port was 73.68 million tons, down 3.57 million tons; at Caofeidian Port was 0 million tons; at Fangchenggang Port was 4 million tons, unchanged. As of August 29, the total manganese ore inventory was 440.38 million tons, down 2.15 million tons [3]. c. Trend Intensity The trend intensity of ferrosilicon is 0, and that of silicomanganese is also 0 [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention an industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the fundamentals of methanol are under pressure, showing a weak operation. In the medium - term, it is expected to present a volatile pattern. The short - term fundamental contradictions of methanol are significant, with the near - end port inventory continuously and substantially increasing, and there is a risk of tank fullness in South and East China ports. Although the price difference between ports and inland areas is gradually weakening, which may drive the return of port goods to the inland, there is currently no obvious price difference support. In the medium - term, the downward space of methanol is narrowing. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies have a certain supporting effect on the overall valuation of commodities, and after the commodity valuation enters a reasonable range, investors' risk preference for shorting may significantly decrease. Overall, the short - term fundamentals of methanol have large contradictions and a downward drive, while in the medium - term, with the marginal improvement of the weak fundamentals, methanol may enter an interval - volatile pattern [4][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Market**: The closing price of methanol was 2,361 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 2,370 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; the trading volume was 419,697 lots, down 41,517 lots; the open interest was 821,019 lots, up 35,186 lots; the number of warehouse receipts was 9,746 tons, down 520 tons; the trading volume was 994.542 million yuan, down 97.621 million yuan. The basis was - 136, up 5; the monthly spread (MA09 - MA01) was - 157, down 9 [2]. - **Spot Market**: The ex - tank price in Jiangsu was 2,260 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia was 2,040 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the price in Northern Shaanxi was 2,030 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the price in Shandong was 2,260 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. [Futures Research] - **Inventory Situation**: As of August 27, 2025, the sample inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 1299300 tons, an increase of 223300 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 20.75%. This week, the methanol port inventory accelerated and significantly increased. There were 393300 tons of visible foreign vessel discharges during the period. Although the提货 in the mainstream storage areas of Jiangsu was relatively stable supported by a small amount of reverse flow to the inland, due to the concentrated discharge of foreign vessels, the inventory still increased significantly. In Zhejiang, one olefin plant remained shut down, but other rigid demands were stable, and the inventory continued to increase with the discharge of foreign vessels. The inventory in South China ports continued to increase. In Guangdong, both imported and domestic vessels arrived at the port, and there were still some vessels being unloaded that were not yet included in the inventory. The local and surrounding downstream consumption remained stable, and the inventory also increased. In Fujian, the downstream demand was average, and the inventory continued to increase under the stable supply of imported cargoes [4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short - term, the fundamentals are under pressure and the market is in a weak operation. In the medium - term, it is expected to be volatile. The short - term fundamental contradictions are large, and the near - end port inventory continues to increase significantly. There is a risk of tank fullness in South and East China ports. Although the price difference between ports and inland areas may drive the return of port goods to the inland, there is currently no obvious price difference support. In the medium - term, the downward space of methanol is narrowing. The "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies have a certain supporting effect on the overall valuation of commodities, and investors' risk preference for shorting may significantly decrease. Overall, the short - term fundamentals have large contradictions and a downward drive, while in the medium - term, with the marginal improvement of the weak fundamentals, methanol may enter an interval - volatile pattern [4][5]. [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of methanol is 0, indicating a neutral trend. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The Shanghai Composite Index reached a rebound high of 3888.6 points on Tuesday but then pulled back. The communication, non - ferrous metals, and electronics sectors led the gains, while the textile, coal, and banking sectors led the losses. The core driver of the market's upward movement was the continuous inflow of funds under the influence of positive risk appetite. However, regulatory cooling rumors during the week led to some risk - aversion among investors [2]. - The driving factors of the market still lie in internal and external variables. Domestically, it is necessary to focus on the policy's attitude towards preventing stock market risks at the current position. Overseas, pay attention to the adjustment of the US stock technology and chip sectors and its impact on the domestic market, as well as the impact of the Fed's September interest - rate cut expectations on the domestic market. If the internal and external situations are stable, the market is expected to show a slightly stronger pattern in the shock and may try to break through the 4000 - point mark. If internal and external fluctuations increase, the market is expected to continue to fluctuate sideways at the current position [3]. - Key factors to watch include the domestic economic and policy trends and the Fed's policy expectations [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.84%. Since 2025, major domestic indices have all risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains at 35% [9]. - Most industries in the CSI 300 and CSI 500 indices rose last week. Among them, the information and materials industries in the CSI 300 index had relatively large increases, while the energy and financial industries declined [11]. 2. Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, the IC futures contract had the largest increase among the main stock - index futures contracts, and the IM contract had the largest amplitude. The trading volume and open interest of stock - index futures both rebounded [13][17][18]. 3. Index Valuation Tracking - As of August 22, the TTM P/E ratios of the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300 Index, SSE 50 Index, CSI 500 Index, and CSI 1000 Index were 16.42 times, 13.97 times, 11.89 times, 30.33 times, and 41.17 times respectively [24][25]. 4. Market Capital Flow Review - The chart shows the new - established equity - biased fund shares, the margin trading balance in the two markets, the capital interest - rate price, and the central bank's net investment situation [28]. Strategy Recommendations - Short - term strategy: The intraday trading frequency can refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. The stop - loss and take - profit levels of IIH, IH, IC, and IM can refer to 76 points/95 points, 58 points/31 points, 66 points/121 points, and 84 points/142 points respectively [4]. - Trend strategy: After adjustment, go long. It is expected that the core operating ranges of the IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 contracts are 4371 - 4596 points, 2906 - 3040 points, 6787 - 7242 points, and 7109 - 7588 points respectively [4]. - Cross - variety strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Aluminum is expected to experience a weekly - level consolidation, with the price center likely to move upward. The aluminum market has entered the "traditional consumption peak season", and downstream demand is a mixed bag. The overall aluminum price still needs to break through the convergent pattern, and both the unilateral direction and volatility tend to the long - side. [3] - For alumina, attention should be paid to the spot sales pressure, and there may still be room for the price to decline. The overall price center of alumina has moved down this week, and the spot sales pressure is increasing, which may still drag down the AO futures market. [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction End: Spreads, Volume, and Open Interest - **Term Spreads**: This week, the A00 spot premium weakened, while the alumina spot premium strengthened. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from 30 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 30 yuan/ton to - 75 yuan/ton. The Shandong alumina premium to the current month changed from 67 yuan/ton to 126 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changed from 87 yuan/ton to 166 yuan/ton. [9] - **Monthly Spreads**: The near - month spread of SHFE aluminum has widened. [10] - **Open Interest**: The open interest and trading volume of the SHFE aluminum main contract decreased slightly, while the open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, and its trading volume decreased slightly. [12] - **Open Interest - to - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - to - inventory ratio of the SHFE aluminum main contract declined, and the open interest - to - inventory ratio of alumina continued to fall and is at a historically low level. [17] 3.2 Inventory: Bauxite, Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Bauxite**: As of August 29, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 90,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of August, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises across the country increased by 1.19 million tons month - on - month, and the bauxite inventory days in alumina plants remained stable. As of August 29, the weekly bauxite shipments from Guinea and Australia ports decreased, and the floating inventory also decreased. As of August 22, the bauxite out - port volume from Australia's Weipa + Gove ports increased slightly, while that from Guinea's Boffa + Kamsar ports decreased slightly, and the bauxite arrival volume decreased. [22][27][28] - **Alumina**: The national total alumina inventory continued to increase. As of Thursday (August 28), the national alumina inventory was 3.497 million tons, an increase of 74,000 tons compared with last week. The alumina inventory in plants, at electrolytic aluminum plants, and at ports increased, while the inventory in yards/platforms/in - transit decreased slightly. [36][48] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum inventory continued to increase. As of August 28, the weekly inventory of aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 31,000 tons to 610,000 tons. [49] - **Aluminum Rod**: This week, the downstream aluminum rod spot inventory and in - plant inventory showed a divergent trend, and the out - port volume decreased. [55] - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: As of July, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles remained basically flat, while the raw - material inventory ratio decreased significantly. The finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum plate - foil decreased slightly, and the raw - material inventory ratio also decreased significantly. [57] 3.3 Production: Output, Capacity, and Capacity Utilization - **Bauxite**: In August, the domestic bauxite supply measured by the SMM caliber decreased slightly. Imported bauxite supply is still an important increment for the total domestic bauxite supply. In July, the bauxite output in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi measured by the Steel Union caliber increased slightly, while in August, the bauxite output in these three provinces measured by the SMM caliber decreased. [62][65] - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of August 29, the total operating capacity of alumina across the country was 94.6 million tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 1.7 million tons in the weekly operating capacity. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina output was 1.847 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons compared with last week, and it is still at a high level in recent years. The short - term supply - loose pattern of alumina fundamentals has not been reversed. [69] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of July, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of August 21, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum measured by the Steel Union caliber was 848,300 tons, an increase of 400 tons compared with the previous week, and the output level remained at a six - year high. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the aluminum - water ratio showed a seasonal increase, and the ingot - casting volume of aluminum ingots was expected to decrease month - on - month, reducing the supply pressure. [73] - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the output of aluminum plate - foil increased slightly by 3,800 tons compared with last week. The output of recycled aluminum rods decreased by 1,860 tons week - on - week, while the output of aluminum rods increased by 6,000 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of leading downstream processing enterprises increased slightly. The operating rate of primary aluminum alloy, aluminum profiles, and aluminum cables increased slightly, while the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remained flat. [75][77][82] 3.4 Profit: Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Processed Materials - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, and the profit of metallurgical - grade alumina measured by the Steel Union caliber was 390.1 yuan/ton, maintaining a good level of smelting profit. The alumina profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit performance in Guangxi was better than that in other regions. [89] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level. However, the current complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies have increased uncertainty factors, interfering with market expectations. [99] - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods decreased slightly by 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the downstream processing profit remained at a low level. [100] 3.5 Consumption: Import Profit & Loss, Export Profit & Loss, and Apparent Demand - **Import Profit & Loss**: The import profit & loss of alumina and SHFE aluminum has widened. [108] - **Export**: In July 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased slightly by 52,000 tons month - on - month. The export profit & loss of aluminum processed materials showed a divergent trend, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade policy adjustments. [110][112] - **Apparent Consumption Volume**: The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, and the monthly output of automobiles decreased month - on - month. [117]

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月31日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：破3500前高，趋势再度突破；白银：新一轮上涨启动 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：782-812元/克、9400-9800元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.85%，伦敦银回升2.09%。金银比从前周的88.7回升至88.8，10年期TIPS回落至1.82%，10年期名义利率回落至4.23%（2年 期3.59%），美元指数录得97. 84。 ◆ 本周金银大幅上涨，尤其是周五黄金白银纷纷突破前高，COMEX黄金收于3516.1美元/盎司，伦敦金收于3447美元/盎司，沪金收于791.28元/ 克；COMEX白银收于40.75美元/盎司，伦敦银收于39.67美元/盎 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The short - term outlook for urea is to trade sideways, and the medium - term situation depends on policies. The weak domestic demand is the main contradiction. Although the fundamental pressure on urea is high and domestic demand transactions are weak, due to potential policy changes, market investment in urea is conservative. In the long - term, the terminal value expectation of the urea 01 contract remains weak, and fundamentals are the long - cycle main contradiction [2][3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Capacity**: In 2025, the expansion pattern of urea capacity continues. The total new capacity in 2024 was 427 million tons, and the expected new capacity in 2025 is 346 million tons [25]. - **Production**: This week (20250821 - 0827), China's urea production was 1.3492 million tons, a decrease of 0.0119 million tons from the previous period, a 0.87% decrease. Next week, China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.28 - 1.29 million tons, a significant decrease from this period [3]. - **Cost**: Raw material prices have stabilized, and the factory's cash - flow cost line is stable. The cash - flow cost corresponding to urea currently shows a profit [33][39]. - **Net Import (Export)**: With the adjustment of export policies, subsequent export volumes may increase. The second - batch export quota has been confirmed, and exports in August and September are expected to remain high, but the second - batch export transactions are slow due to price limits [3][45]. 3.2 Demand - **Agricultural Demand**: Agricultural demand has seasonal characteristics. High - standard farmland construction has led to an incremental demand for urea from corn. Currently, the northern agricultural top - dressing demand has basically ended, and the year - on - year growth rate of top - dressing demand has declined significantly [3][51][53]. - **Industrial Demand**: - **Compound Fertilizer**: The compound fertilizer industry currently has high production and sales pressure, low operating rates, and limited demand for urea raw materials, with low acceptance of high - priced urea [3]. - **Melamine**: The melamine industry's production profit, market price, output, and capacity utilization rate are presented in the report, showing certain fluctuations [60][61][62]. - **Real Estate and Panels**: The demand support from the real estate industry for panels is relatively limited, but panel exports show resilience [63]. 3.3 Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: On August 27, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0858 million tons, an increase of 0.0619 million tons from last week, a 6.05% increase. The total inventory shows an upward trend [69]. - **Port Inventory**: As of August 28, 2025 (Week 35), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 600,000 tons, an increase of 99,000 tons from the previous period, a 19.76% increase. The port inventory shows an upward trend [69]. 3.4 Valuation The report presents multiple charts related to urea basis, monthly spreads, and spot prices (both domestic and international), showing the price trends and spreads of urea in different periods and regions [6][10][16][21]. 3.5 Strategy - **Single - side**: The UR2601 contract will trade sideways in the short - term, with resistance at 1780 - 1800 yuan/ton and support at 1660 - 1680 yuan/ton. In the long - term, it is recommended to short at around 1800 yuan/ton. - **Inter - period Spread**: Reverse spreads for the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 spreads. - **Inter - commodity Spread**: None is recommended currently [3].