张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com 2025 年 12 月 18 日 工业硅：逢高做空思路 多晶硅：关注消息面影响 商 品 研 究 【宏观及行业新闻】 据外媒报道，土耳其太阳能电池板制造商 Alfa Solar 与总部位于德国的 Astronergy Europe（正泰 新能欧洲）合作，在土耳其建立一家综合性太阳能电池和硅片生产工厂。两家公司签署了一项合资协议，其 中规定该项目由 Astronergy Yüksek Teknoloji Enerji Sanayi ve Ticaret A.Ş.规划，该公司由 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2605收盘价（元/吨） | 8,470 | 105 | 220 | -610 | | | | Si2605成交量（手） | 346,284 | 126,61 ...

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 LLDPE：供应弹性有限，估值继续承压 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L2605 | 6479 | -0.98% | 462885 | 29984 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -49 | | -93 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -35 | | -25 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6430 | | 6450 | | | | 华东 | 6570 | | 6600 | | | | 华南 | 6480 | | 6480 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货低开窄幅震荡，市场交投气氛延续疲软，中油华东（山东库）、中油华南、蒲城清洁能源等出 ...

1. Reported Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Nickel: The surplus is undergoing a structural shift, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks [2][4]. - Stainless Steel: Supply and demand are both weak, and steel prices are oscillating at a low level [2][4]. - Lithium Carbonate: Market sentiment is positive, and it will operate at a high level in the short - term [2][9]. - Industrial Silicon: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies [2][12]. - Polysilicon: Pay attention to the impact of news [2][13]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamental Data**: For nickel, the closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract is 113,800, with a change of - 3,290 compared to T - 5. The stainless - steel main contract's closing price is 12,380, with a change of - 175 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, spot prices, and spreads are also presented [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Indonesian forestry authorities took over a nickel mine area, which is expected to affect monthly nickel production by about 600 metal tons. China suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia. Indonesia imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the government restricted the issuance of new smelting licenses. Some nickel wet - process projects in Indonesia will reduce production, affecting about 6000 nickel metal tons in December [4][5][7]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of nickel and stainless steel is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [8]. Lithium Carbonate - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract is 106,820, with an increase of 12,740 compared to T - 5. Other data such as trading volume, open interest, and various prices in the lithium - salt industrial chain are provided [9]. - **Macro and Industry News**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased. Due to environmental protection reasons in Hubei, some phosphorus - chemical enterprises reduced or suspended production, which may affect the supply of upstream materials for new - energy batteries [9][10][11]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the Si2605 contract is 8,470, with an increase of 220 compared to T - 5. The PS2605 contract's closing price is 61,595, with an increase of 5,680 compared to T - 5. Data on inventory, cost, price, and profit in the industrial - silicon and polysilicon industries are also given [13]. - **Macro and Industry News**: Turkish and German companies plan to build a solar - cell and silicon - wafer production plant in Turkey [13][15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook. The trend intensity of polysilicon is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [15].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-18 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-18 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面变化有限，市场情绪驱动锂价向上。一方面，宜春市自然资源局拟注销 27 宗采矿许可证，虽然所涉矿山此前多处于停产状态，对实际供需影响有限，但市场将此解读 为宜春地区锂矿资源管控趋严的信号，并预期未来云母锂供应增量可能受限。另一方面，市 场对大厂复产时间的预期不断推迟，在未复产的情况下，周度库存仍保持 2000 吨以上的去 化速度，现实层面的持续去库，叠加未来需求向好的预期，共同支撑了多头的看涨情绪。不 过需注意的是，目前现货市场成交仍显清淡，下游对当前高价接受度不高，期货与现货市场 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 出现一定背离。整体来看，当前市场情绪偏乐观，短期锂价预计高位运行，波动加剧，建议 谨慎持仓。 | 所 | | 长 | 首 | 推 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | ...

2025年12月18日 | 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 螺纹钢：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 热轧卷板：夜盘黑色推涨，价格走势坚挺 | 3 | | 硅铁：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 锰硅：多空情绪博弈，宽幅震荡 | 5 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 7 | | 原木：低位震荡 | 9 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-黑色系列 观点与策略 铁矿石：下游需求空间有限，估值偏高 张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 铁矿石基本面数据 | 期货 | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 0. 92% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 768. 0 | 7.0 | | | | I 2605 | | | 昨日持仓( ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the performance of Treasury bond futures on December 17, 2025, including price changes, capital conditions, and market trading volume [3][4][5]. - Weak non - farm payroll data has strengthened the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Treasury Bond Futures Price Changes - On December 17, the 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose 0.63%, the 10 - year rose 0.10%, the 5 - year rose 0.06%, and the 2 - year rose 0.01% [3]. - The opening, high, low, closing prices, price changes, amplitudes, trading volumes, and open interests of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures main contracts are provided [4]. 3.2 Capital Conditions - Overnight shibor was reported at 1.2760%, up 0.2bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day shibor was reported at 1.4290%, down 0.3bp; 14 - day shibor was reported at 1.5100%, down 0.1bp; 1 - month shibor was reported at 1.5370%, up 0.4bp [4]. - The 2 - year active CTD bond was 250017.IB with an IRR of 1.62%, the 5 - year was 230014.IB with an IRR of 0.96%, the 10 - year was 250018.IB with an IRR of 1.54%, and the 30 - year was 210005.IB with an IRR of 2.24%. Currently, R007 is about 1.5003% [4]. 3.3 Market Trading Volume - On December 17, the inter - bank pledged repurchase market traded a total of 2.9 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.06%. Overnight repurchase rate closed at 1.31%, down 14bp from the previous trading day; 7 - day repurchase rate closed at 1.48%, unchanged from the previous trading day; 14 - day repurchase rate closed at 1.52%, up 3bp; 1 - month repurchase rate closed at 1.60%, down 1bp [5]. 3.4 Yield Curve Changes - The Treasury bond yield curve showed mixed changes (2Y yield rose 0.85BP to 1.41%; 5Y yield fell 0.13BP to 1.64%; 10Y yield fell 0.13BP to 1.85%; 30Y yield rose 0.15BP to 2.28%). - The credit bond yield curve also showed mixed changes (for AAA - rated medium - and short - term notes, 6M yield rose 3.00BP to 1.73%; 1Y yield rose 5.00BP to 1.74%; 3Y yield fell 11.00BP to 1.81%; 5Y yield rose 0.50BP to 2.28%) [5]. 3.5 Macro and Industry News - Weak non - farm payroll data has strengthened the market's expectation of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [8]. 3.6 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of Treasury bond futures is 0 [9].

2025年12月18日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-农产品 观点与策略 | 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | 2 | | 豆粕：美豆微跌，连粕或低位震荡 | 4 | | 豆一：抛储影响，偏弱震荡 | 4 | | 玉米：关注现货 | 6 | | 白糖：低位整理 | 7 | | 棉花：震荡偏强关注下游需求20251218 | 8 | | 鸡蛋：维持震荡 | 10 | | 生猪：冬至需求高峰将至 | 11 | | 花生：关注油厂收购 | 12 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 2 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for crude oil in the short - term is to continue watching [1] Core Views - The prices of major crude oil futures have increased, and there are various situations in crude oil arbitrage opportunities in different regions, along with some significant market news affecting the crude oil market [1][2][12] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Futures Price Movements - NYMEX WTI futures 01 contract rose by $0.67 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.21%, reaching $55.94 per barrel; ICE Brent oil futures 02 contract rose by $0.76 per barrel, a month - on - month increase of 1.29%, reaching $59.68 per barrel; SC2602 crude oil futures closed up by 3.10 yuan per barrel, a gain of 0.73%, at 427.40 yuan per barrel [1] 2. Mexican Gulf Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Arab Extra Light, Arab Light, Nemba, Agbami, Forties, Arab Heavy, and Vasconia crude oils are closed, while Castilla and Napo crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, and Maya crude oil is close to the break - even point [2][4] 3. Atlantic Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage window for Forties is closed, while Arab Extra Light, Saharan Blend, and Urals crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, and Cabinda crude oil has insufficient competitiveness [4] 4. Northwest Europe Crude Oil Arbitrage - WTI MEH, Eagle Ford, Azeri Light, Saharan Blend, and Bonny Light crude oils all present arbitrage opportunities in the Northwest Europe market [6] 5. Mediterranean Crude Oil Arbitrage - The arbitrage windows for Saharan Blend, Azeri Light, Bonny Light, Ekofisk, and Eagle Ford crude oils are all closed when using Urals as the benchmark [7][8] 6. Asian Crude Oil Arbitrage - Duri, Napo, and Mars crude oils present arbitrage opportunities, while Basrah Heavy and Maya crude oils have their arbitrage windows closed [9] 7. Key Market News - The Trump administration is inquiring if US oil companies are interested in returning to Venezuela, but the industry shows little interest due to low oil prices and other factors; several Venezuelan oil - by - product ships sailed out under naval escort; the Amuay refinery in Venezuela has restarted; US EIA crude oil inventory data shows changes; PDVSA declares normal export operations [12] 8. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of crude oil is 0, indicating a neutral state [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - In 2026, the global macro - economy is expected to maintain resilience, supporting risk sentiment. The macro - economic mainline will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and major economies will be in a period of relatively abundant macro - liquidity mainly driven by fiscal expansion [2][49]. - The global economy, led by the US, will maintain resilience in 2026, continuing to support the performance of risk assets. The structure may be more balanced than in 2025, with the technology sector, industry prosperity logic, and macro - cycle opportunities intertwined [3][50]. - The long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends in 2026, with an upward - risk bias. The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation throughout the year, with an upward - risk bias [3][163][172]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 Overseas Macroeconomic Mainline Logic and Performance Review of Major Asset Classes - **Economic fundamentals**: In 2025, the US economy maintained a relatively high growth rate, but the actual GDP growth rate declined marginally compared to 2024. Non - US economies were stronger in the first half of the year, and the US economy was stronger in the second half. The inventory and net exports of the US GDP fluctuated greatly in the first half due to trade policies, and personal consumption and private fixed investment showed certain resilience. The US industrial output increased, and there were signs of an early - cycle expansion. Monetary policy continued to cut interest rates, and the yield of US Treasury bonds declined, but the stock - market valuation remained basically unchanged. The fiscal deficit ratio decreased [7][8][16][17][26]. - **Adapting to the new reality of the tariff era**: In 2025, tariff policies were the most important macro - risks. The overall US tariff rate remained high, and the "severe decoupling" between China and the US turned into "slow decoupling." The "tariff - inflation" transmission was relatively mild, and the US inflation expectation became stable and desensitized to tariff uncertainties [30][37][39]. - **Performance review of major asset classes**: In 2025, the global market had a good year. Global equity markets rose significantly, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index and the STAR 50 Index leading the way. The bond market also had positive returns, and the commodity market was highly differentiated [47][48]. 3.2 2026 Overseas Macroeconomic Outlook 3.2.1 "From Politics to Economy", "From International to Domestic" - The mainline of the global macro - economy will shift from trade policies and geopolitical relations to economic fundamentals, and the focus of geopolitics will shift from international to domestic. The US mid - term elections, China's 14th Five - Year Plan, the eurozone's fiscal expansion, and Japan's new policies will all focus on domestic economic and political issues [55]. - **Tariff policy changes**: The "general tariff" under the IEEPA framework is facing challenges. If the government loses the lawsuit, the IEEPA tariff will be revoked. Relevant industry tariffs may become an important legal tool for rebuilding the high - tariff system, and attention should be paid to changes in key industries and commodity trade flows [56][58]. - **US National Security Strategy**: The US National Security Strategy focuses on economic and financial security, including trade balance, ensuring key supply chains, re - industrialization, energy dominance, revitalizing the US dollar, and tax cuts and deregulation. It shows a shift from maintaining global leadership to focusing on national interests [61]. 3.2.2 Macro - liquidity - **Monetary policy**: The Fed is expected to cut interest rates to 3.25% in 2026, with two 50bp cuts in total. There is a risk that the final interest - rate cut space is less than expected, and there is a probability of an early end to the interest - rate cut cycle or a start of an interest - rate hike cycle. The Fed is expected to restart balance - sheet expansion in the second half of 2026 [65][67][68]. - **Fiscal policy**: The US fiscal policy will expand marginally in 2026. The "Great Beauty Act" will have a positive impact on the economy, and the fiscal deficit ratio is expected to expand moderately. The risk of concerns about the sustainability of US Treasury bonds is relatively controllable [78][79][80]. - **Macro - liquidity**: The US financial conditions index is expected to continue to expand in 2026, mainly driven by factors such as the decline in the benchmark interest rate, credit expansion, and the resilience of the equity market. The expansion of the financial conditions index is expected to have a more significant impact on the real economy [86][94][96]. 3.2.3 Economic Structure - **Forward - looking and backward - looking indicators**: The US economy is currently in a situation where forward - looking indicators are improving while backward - looking indicators are still weak. It is expected that the backward - looking indicators will improve in 2026 [101]. - **Inflation**: Inflation is expected to remain above the Fed's target in 2026, with a CPI growth rate of 2.8%. The "pro - cyclical inflation" will have a relatively limited impact on macro - assets [103][104]. - **Employment**: The employment market is trending downward, supporting the Fed's interest - rate cut tendency. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 4.5% in the first half of 2026 and then fall to 4.4% in the second half [114]. - **Consumption**: Personal consumption is expected to remain stable in 2026, showing a K - shaped differentiation. Consumption may be weak in the first half due to income factors and will be boosted by the employment market and fiscal policies in the second half [121][122]. - **Private fixed investment**: Private fixed investment is expected to be a highlight in 2026, with a significant improvement in the quarter - on - quarter growth rate. However, the structure is differentiated, and it is necessary to follow industry Alpha [128][129]. 3.2.4 Debate on the "AI Bubble" - The "AI bubble" reflects concerns about the sustainability of AI investment, debt, and return on investment. At the index level, there is no systematic risk for now, but the risk is concentrated in leading technology companies. It is recommended to track risks through indicators such as ROIC - WACC, credit market risk exposure, and the profit erosion of depreciation and amortization [135][137][147]. 3.3 US Treasury Bond Market - In 2026, the long - term US Treasury bond yield has limited trends, with an upward - risk bias. The 10 - year US Treasury bond interest - rate center may be around 4.20%, with support at 3.95 - 4.00 and the first target at 4.35% and the second target at 4.65%. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield has support at around 3.20% and a target of 3.68%. The yield curve may show a "bull steepening" in the first half and a "bear steepening" in the second half [163][164]. 3.4 US Dollar Index - The US dollar index is expected to maintain a wide - range oscillation in 2026, with an annual oscillation range of 96 - 108 and an upward - risk bias. The oscillation range in the first quarter of 2026 is 97.7 - 102. Attention should be paid to the rhythm of economic relative strength, the marginal change of interest - rate differentials, and carry - trade themes [172][180].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, as the Fed cuts interest rates (market expects a cut to 3.0 - 3.25% by the end of 2026), commodities may bottom out and present allocation opportunities [1]. - The 10 - year Chinese Treasury bond interest rate is expected to oscillate in the range of 1.5 - 2.0%. Slow fiscal spending and inflation recovery will limit the downside space of Treasury bond futures [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index will oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, appropriately reduce positions, and pay attention to the Fed's subsequent interest - rate cut process and specific measures to expand terminal consumption in China [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025 Review - In 2025, there was a divergence in Sino - US commodities, with US commodities being stronger and Chinese commodities being weaker. The overall view at the end of 2024 for 2025 was that Treasury bonds would oscillate, stock indices would be slightly bullish, and commodities would be bearish, which was generally correct, except that US commodities were stronger than expected [5]. - In the US, with the Fed's interest - rate cuts, Trump's policies of adding tariffs externally, cutting taxes internally, and restricting immigration, the US economy may face stagflation risks. In China, the real estate market still faced pressure in recovery, private fixed - asset investment decreased year - on - year, and demand was weak. Although a more proactive fiscal policy brought short - term impacts on the stock, bond, and commodity markets, commodities then trended towards reality [5]. - Overseas, on April 2, Trump issued a more - than - expected reciprocal tariff policy, causing commodity prices to plummet. Subsequently, commodity and energy prices continued to weaken. The Fed cut interest rates twice in September and October to address weak employment. The US economy showed stagflation characteristics [5]. - Domestically, after a rebound at the beginning of the year, commercial housing sales continued to weaken, and domestic demand remained weak. In October, China's PPI was - 2.1% and CPI was 0.2%, the first positive CPI growth in Q2 2025 but still at a low level. The prices of domestic - priced black commodities slightly rebounded due to anti - involution meetings and production - cut plans but weakened again as anti - involution expectations cooled. The 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate strengthened and oscillated at a high level [6]. 2026 Outlook US - The US economic growth is expected to slow down moderately, presenting a pattern of "slowing employment and consumption - high inflation and deficits". The high deficit rate of nearly 6% makes government debt unsustainable. The contradiction between high interest rates and fiscal deficit sustainability is becoming more prominent, posing potential risks to the US economy [8]. - It is estimated that the real GDP growth rate in the US will be about 1.8% in 2026, showing a moderately slowing trend. Consumption and import growth are expected to slow down as fiscal deficits decline; private - sector construction investment growth is expected to continue to slow down due to trade - friction uncertainties, the decline of investment tax credits, and doubts about the sustainability of AI capital expenditure; the consumption and inventory cycles face certain downward pressure [10]. - The labor market shows weak signals. In 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was consistently below 200,000, and the unemployment rate continued to rise. In September 2025, the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000, and the unemployment rate was 4.4%. It is expected that the US will still face high unemployment in 2026, and solving labor - market weakness may be the primary goal of monetary and fiscal policies [12]. - The US CPI growth rate is expected to be in the range of 2.2 - 2.9% in 2026, maintaining a relatively high inflation level. Factors contributing to inflation resilience include high salaries and personal consumption expenditures, Trump's policies with inflation - promoting attributes, and the "dovish" stance of the new Fed chairman, which may push up inflation through interest - rate cut expectations [16]. - In 2026, the US will still be in an interest - rate cut cycle, but the path is not smooth. The market expects the federal funds rate to be reduced to the 3.0 - 3.25% range. If inflation does not decline as expected, it will make the interest - rate cut space volatile and increase market fluctuations [18]. - The sustainability of the US fiscal deficit is being tested. The US national debt exceeded 38 trillion US dollars in October 2025. The "Big and Beautiful Act" is expected to add about 3.4 trillion US dollars in fiscal deficits in the next decade, on top of the debt accumulated by the "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act". To reduce the fiscal deficit rate to 3%, a combination of reducing fiscal spending, increasing fiscal revenue, and cutting interest rates is required [19]. China - China's inflation data was weak in 2025. With the support of policies such as the 14th Five - Year Plan and anti - involution, inflation is expected to bottom out in 2026. In October 2025, China's PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year, and CPI was 0.2% year - on - year. After an increase in commercial housing sales within the year, it declined again, and the year - on - year increase in M1 was significant [24]. - In the short term, it is still difficult to see an obvious upward trend in inflation. The Fed's high - interest - rate policy in H1 2025 pressured China's exports; the decline in commercial housing prices led to continuous negative growth in new household credit and real - estate investment, and it is difficult to reverse the weakening trend of housing prices under the "housing is for living in, not for speculation" principle; there is over - capacity in some industries, and the aging population has depressed private - sector demand. The implementation of anti - involution policies and production cuts due to processing losses are expected to increase bottom - level fluctuations in commodities in 2026 [26]. - Monetary policy will maintain a supportive stance, with reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts to ensure sufficient market liquidity, and new structural monetary policy tools to support the development of small and micro enterprises. The reasons for strengthening supportive monetary policy include high real interest rates due to slow inflation and the need to create a more liquid environment for economic development and local - government leverage management [27]. - To boost inflation and economic growth, China needs a combination of fiscal, stock - market, real - estate, and consumption - subsidy policies. In 2025, the central bank only adjusted the LPR once in May. The weakening real - estate market has weakened the wealth effect, consumer confidence, and domestic demand, and strengthened residents' savings motivation. In October 2025, China's household deposit balance exceeded 160 trillion yuan, almost double the level at the end of 2019 before the pandemic [28]. - The bull market in the Chinese stock market in 2025 led to a deposit - transfer effect, but it has not been transmitted to the consumption end. The number of new stock - market accounts increased with the rise of the CSI 300, but may decline in November and December. In 2025, new RMB loans were at a five - year low, while new government bonds increased, indicating an expansionary fiscal policy. The M1 - M2 gap narrowed significantly, but consumption data did not improve significantly. To transmit the deposit - transfer effect to consumption in 2026, the stock - market bull market needs to continue, and policies need to boost consumption [30]. 2026 Allocation Outlook - In the US, with a downward - shifting interest - rate center and high inflation, the US economic resilience is expected to decline, consumption and imports will fall, and employment may be poor. Expansionary fiscal policies may cause debt - sustainability issues. The yield of US Treasury bonds will oscillate at a high level between 3.5 - 4.5%, the US dollar will oscillate between 95 - 100 (±3), gold prices are high, and non - ferrous metals should be over - allocated. Attention should be paid to trading opportunities arising from the oscillation of US consumption and imports [33]. - In China, with a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, inflation is expected to bottom out in 2026, and PPI will rise to - 0.5 - - 1%. There is room for interest - rate cuts in the monetary - policy end. With liquidity support, A - shares are expected to remain active in trading, and Treasury bond yields present allocation opportunities. The implementation of the 14th Five - Year Plan and anti - involution policies may support commodity prices at the bottom, and prices may bottom out in H2 2026 [33]. - In asset allocation, non - ferrous metals and Treasury bonds should be over - allocated, and equities should be neutrally allocated: - The yield of 10 - year US Treasury bonds will oscillate widely between 3.5% - 4.5% and is expected to decline [33]. - The US dollar is expected to oscillate between 95 - 100 (±3). Attention should be paid to improvements in the US fiscal and trade deficits, which will affect the Fed's interest - rate cuts and the US dollar's downward trend [34]. - Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level between 4400 - 4500. It is relatively expensive, and some non - ferrous rare - earth metals should be allocated. Global central - bank gold purchases and the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle will push up the gold - price center [34]. - The target of the CSI 300 is 4300 - 5200 points. Attention should be paid to the boost of policies in the 14th Five - Year Plan to the technology and energy sectors, and the continuation of the structural bull market in H2 2025. Also, pay attention to the re - balance between stocks and bonds [34]. - The yield of 10 - year Chinese Treasury bonds is expected to oscillate between 1.5 - 2.0%, and there will be good allocation opportunities when the interest rate rises to 2.0% [34]. - Commodities are expected to present bottom - level allocation opportunities in 2026. Attention should be paid to phased opportunities in H2 2026, such as crude oil, coking coal, live pigs, and some chemical products [34][35].