Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term watch for crude oil, focus on the reversal of various spreads [1] Core Viewpoint - The report analyzes the price, dynamics, cross - regional comparison, key spreads,突发事件 or potential impact factors, and other news of the crude oil and refined oil markets, providing a comprehensive view of the current situation of the oil market [1][2][4] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Crude Oil Market Price and Dynamics - WTI10 crude oil futures fell $0.59/barrel, or 0.91%, to $64.01/barrel; Brent October crude oil futures fell $0.50/barrel, or 0.73%, to $68.12/barrel; SC2510 crude oil futures rose $1.00/barrel, or 0.21%, to $483.90/barrel [1] - In different regions, prices and market dynamics vary. For example, in Europe, the spot trading volume in the Mediterranean decreased by 12% month - on - month due to the Russia - Ukraine conflict; in Asia, the demand for strategic reserve replenishment in China is strong; in America, the congestion of export facilities in the US Gulf has been alleviated [2] 2. Refined Oil Market Price and Dynamics - Different refined oil products in various regions have different price changes and market dynamics. For example, in the gasoline market, the ARA inventory in Europe increased as the summer driving season was coming to an end, while in Asia, Indonesia's Pertamina added a third - quarter import plan [4] 3. Cross - Regional Comparison - In terms of supply, the supply in Russia is restricted in Europe, Chinese refineries are under centralized maintenance in Asia, and the US production has reached a new high in America [5] - Regarding demand, the demand for diesel power generation is increasing in Europe, the summer consumption of gasoline is strong in Asia, and the export demand dominates in America [5] - In terms of inventory, the ARA diesel inventory in Europe is 208.5 tons, the Singapore light distillate inventory decreased by 11.01% week - on - week in Asia, and the crude oil inventory in the Gulf of Mexico is at a five - year low in America [5] 4. Key Spreads - Brent - Dubai spread is $3.25/barrel, up $0.30/barrel, indicating a worsening shortage of light - sweet crude oil [7] - WTI - Brent spread is - $2.82/barrel, down $0.25/barrel, showing an increase in the quality difference of US crude oil [7] 5.突发事件 or Potential Impact Factors - The attack in Ukraine led to the full shutdown of the Tuapse refinery and a halving of the export volume of Black Sea CPC blended oil [8] - The restart of Mexican refineries caused the production of Dos Bocas refinery to be delayed by 6 months, and the US gasoline export volume to Mexico increased by 45% year - on - year [8] 6. Other Market News - China's official manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4, with a previous value of 49.3 and an expected value of 49.5 [8] - The US oil drilling rig count increased to 412 in the week to August 29 [11] - The US crude oil production in June reached a record high, and the supply of crude oil and petroleum products also rose to the highest level since October 2024 [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided about the industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report - The report focuses on the lithium carbonate market, stating that the basis remains stable and the range - bound oscillation continues. The trend strength of lithium carbonate is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The 2509 contract's closing price is 77,000 yuan, down 1,140 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume is 10,537 lots, down 2,243 lots; and its open interest is 17,135 lots, down 5,709 lots. The 2511 contract's closing price is 77,180 yuan, down 960 yuan from T - 1; its trading volume is 490,058 lots, down 315,527 lots; and its open interest is 346,605 lots, down 458 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The warehouse receipt volume is 29,887 lots, up 930 lots from T - 1 [1]. - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2509 is 2,650 yuan, up 790 yuan from T - 1; the basis of spot - 2511 is 2,470 yuan, up 610 yuan from T - 1; the basis of 2509 - 2511 is - 180 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. - **Raw Materials**: The price of spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) is 894 yuan, up 5 yuan from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) is 1,975 yuan, up 60 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Lithium Salts**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,650 yuan, down 350 yuan from T - 1; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,350 yuan, down 350 yuan from T - 1 [1]. - **Related Products in the Industry Chain**: The price of lithium iron phosphate (power type) is 35,115 yuan, down 90 yuan from T - 1; the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer type) is 114,100 yuan, unchanged from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price is 79,628 yuan/ton, down 314 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 79,650 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 77,350 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton [2]. - Chile's economic minister expects Codelco and SQM to reach a major lithium cooperation deal before the end of the current government's term in 2026. Some presidential candidates claim to re - examine or abolish the agreement if it doesn't land before President Boric leaves office, and the government is accelerating this core project of the national lithium strategy [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - LPG supply and demand remain loose, with short - term weak and volatile trends [1]. - Propylene spot prices still have support, but attention should be paid to the risk of price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - **LPG Futures Prices**: PG2510 closed at 4,411 yesterday with a 0.05% increase, and 4,334 at night with a - 1.75% change; PG2511 closed at 4,324 yesterday with a - 0.18% change, and 4,260 at night with a - 1.48% change; PL2601 closed at 6,409 yesterday with a - 0.64% change, and 6,397 at night with a - 0.19% change; PL2602 closed at 6,441 yesterday with a - 0.68% change, and 6,432 at night with a - 0.14% change [1]. - **LPG Position and Trading Volume**: PG2510 had a trading volume of 97,396 yesterday, an increase of 28,672 from the previous day, and a position of 85,415, a decrease of 2,174; PG2511 had a trading volume of 20,455, an increase of 6,399, and a position of 33,149, an increase of 456; PL2601 had a trading volume of 1,066, unchanged, and a position of 5,095, an increase of 198; PL2602 had a trading volume of 5, an increase of 1, and a position of 849, a decrease of 4 [1]. - **LPG Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the PG10 contract was 189 yesterday, compared to 191 the day before; the spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the PG10 contract was 189, compared to 191; the spread between Shandong propylene and the PL01 contract was 166, compared to 125; the spread between East China propylene and the PL01 contract was 141, compared to 100; the spread between South China propylene and the PL01 contract was 66, compared to 25 [1]. - **LPG Industry Chain Data**: The PDH operating rate this week was 73.0%, compared to 75.7% last week; the MTBE operating rate was 63.5%, unchanged; the alkylation operating rate was 49.0%, compared to 47.3% last week [1]. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of LPG is 0, and that of propylene is also 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [5]. Market Information - **Saudi Aramco CP**: In September 2025, Saudi Aramco's CP for propane was 520 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last month; for butane, it was 490 US dollars/ton, also unchanged. The equivalent landed US - dollar cost for propane was 582 US dollars/ton, and for butane was 552 US dollars/ton; the equivalent RMB landed cost for propane was about 4,599 yuan/ton, and for butane was about 4,362 yuan/ton (excluding terminal handling fees) [6]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans**: Many enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, such as Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd. starting maintenance on May 12, 2023, with an undetermined end - date; Quanzhou Guoheng Chemical Co., Ltd. from July 16 to August 26, 2025, etc. [7]. - **Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans**: Multiple LPG factories have maintenance plans. For example, Shengli Refinery in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from June 16 to August 25, 2025, with a normal output of 400 and a loss of 400; Dongming Petrochemical in Shandong had a full - plant maintenance from July 29 to the end of September 2025, with a normal output of 100 and a loss of 100 [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, with a neutral fundamental outlook, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, facing both upward pressure and downward support. The upward pressure comes from the high - supply situation of cis - butadiene rubber and increased inventory pressure, as well as the relatively high short - term arrival volume of butadiene. The downward support is due to the medium - to long - term "anti - involution" and supply - side optimization policies, which support the overall valuation of commodities and reduce investors' risk appetite for short - selling [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: For the cis - butadiene rubber主力 (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 80 yuan compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 87,677 lots, a decrease of 44,620 lots; the open interest was 35,493 lots, a decrease of 5,585 lots; and the trading volume was 519.883 million yuan, a decrease of 266.886 million yuan. The basis (Shandong cis - butadiene - futures主力) was 50 yuan, an increase of 80 yuan; the monthly spread (BR09 - BR10) was 15 yuan, an increase of 30 yuan [1]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of private cis - butadiene in North China, East China, and South China decreased by 50 yuan, 50 yuan, and 50 yuan respectively. The market price of Shandong cis - butadiene (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,950 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1502) increased by 50 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene (model 1712) decreased by 100 yuan. The prices of butadiene in Jiangsu and Shandong were 9,400 yuan and 9,525 yuan respectively, with the Shandong price decreasing by 65 yuan [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The cis - butadiene operating rate was 76.0112%, remaining unchanged; the theoretical full cost of cis - butadiene was 12,285 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged; and the cis - butadiene profit was - 185 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged [1]. 2. Industry News - **Inventory Information**: As of August 27, 2025, the latest inventory of butadiene in East China ports was about 24,000 tons, a decrease of 3,300 tons from the previous period. The inventory of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 31,700 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 3.63%. The inventory of sample production enterprises increased, while the inventory of sample trading enterprises decreased slightly [3][4]. - **Market Outlook**: In the short term, synthetic rubber is expected to trade within a range, with the market influenced by factors such as the high - supply pattern of cis - butadiene rubber, butadiene arrival volume, and policy support [4].

Report Investment Rating - PX: Long PX short EB, 11 - 01 calendar spread long, 1 - 5 calendar spread short [7] - PTA: Long PTA short MEG, long PTA 11 - contract short PX [8] - MEG: Long PTA short MEG, 09 - 01 calendar spread long, avoid chasing long positions above 4550 [9] Core Viewpoints - The PX market is in a tight supply - demand balance, with prices having a short - term pullback. The PTA price is expected to be oscillating with a slight upward trend, while the MEG price is in a sideways market [7][8][9] Market Data Summary Futures - PX主力合约昨日收盘价6878，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.12%；月差PX9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 108，较前日跌156 [1] - PTA主力合约昨日收盘价4784，涨跌 - 8，涨跌幅 - 0.17%；月差PTA9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 62，较前日跌6 [1] - MEG主力合约昨日收盘价4466，涨跌1，涨跌幅0.02%；月差MEG9 - 1昨日收盘价 - 37，较前日涨4 [1] Spot - PX CFR中国昨日价格848.67美元/吨，较前日持平 [1] - PTA华东昨日价格4740元/吨，较前日跌35 [1] - MEG现货昨日价格4534元/吨，较前日涨9 [1] Processing Margin - PX - 石脑油价差昨日价格254.79，较前日跌9 [1] - PTA加工费昨日价格221.67，较前日跌29.59 [1] Market Dynamics Summary - PX现货价格因缺乏多空驱动因素保持不变，看跌的原油情绪限制亚洲PX价格涨幅，且美国关税政策引发消费者价格通胀担忧 [1][2] - 9月初聚酯装置有开停变化，江浙涤丝29号产销整体偏弱，直纺涤短销售一般 [5][6] Trend Intensity - PX趋势强度为1，PTA趋势强度为1，MEG趋势强度为0 [6] Supply and Demand Analysis PX - 亚洲其他地区对二甲苯开工率75.6%（ - 0.7%），国产PX装置开工率83.3%（ - 1.3%），9月福佳大化70计划检修，福化集团160计划重启，供应边际回升 [7] PTA - PTA负荷70.4%（ - 1.2%），恒力惠州装置意外停车后转为去库格局，但工厂套保盘压制盘面，基差回落，聚酯开工90.3%（ + 0.3%） [8] MEG - MEG装置开工率75.1%（ + 2%），港口转为累库格局，供应端负荷整体处于高位，进口到港预计回升，需求端聚酯装置负荷维持在90.3%（ + 0.3%），9月聚酯开工预期下调 [9]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - LLDPE is expected to be weak in the short - term and have a sideways movement in the medium - term [1][2] - The trend strength of LLDPE is - 1, indicating a weak bearish outlook [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - Futures data: The closing price of L2601 was 7287, with a daily decline of 0.88%. The trading volume was 282,715, and the open interest increased by 26,798 [1] - Basis and spread data: The basis of the 01 contract was - 107 (previous day: - 158), and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 12 (previous day: - 4) [1] - Spot price data: In North China, the price was 7180 yuan/ton (previous day: 7200); in East China, it was 7280 yuan/ton (previous day: 7300); in South China, it remained at 7400 yuan/ton [1] Spot News - The market price of LLDPE decreased slightly, with a range of 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The linear futures opened high and closed low, and the market sentiment was poor. However, at the end of the month, petrochemical companies stopped sales for settlement, and factory prices remained stable, supporting the market quotes. Downstream factories maintained rigid demand for purchases, and the trading volume was average [1] Market Condition Analysis - PE demand is continuously improving due to the upcoming peak - season stocking in the agricultural film industry, which supports the PE price [2] - In recent days, the commodity sentiment has significantly declined, leading to a weak performance in futures [2] - In terms of supply, the maintenance volume in September is similar to that in August. The maintenance of Zhenhai Refining & Chemical at the end of September may relieve the supply pressure of LLDPE in East China [2] - Regarding inventory, the social inventory of polyethylene is lower than the same period last year. Although there was a slight inventory build - up this week, the overall pressure is not significant. Therefore, PE may continue to trade in a range in the medium - term [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is 1, indicating a moderately bullish view. The range of trend strength is from -2 to 2, where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [2]. 2. Core View - Weekend group significantly reduced supply, and the spot price rebounded as expected. In August, the planned slaughter volume of large farms increased, and small farmers were forced to hold back pigs. There is still supply pressure in September. From September to October, the production cycle and inventory cycle resonate, and it's advisable to enter the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The enthusiasm for purchasing piglets declined, and the price drop accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of slaughter from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward movement of the far - end price center, and stop - loss and take - profit should be set. The short - term support level for the LH2601 contract is 13,500 yuan/ton, and the resistance level is 14,500 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The price of Henan spot is 13,780 yuan/ton with a year - on - year change of 0; Sichuan spot is 13,250 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton year - on - year; Guangdong spot is 14,740 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of the pig 2511 contract is 13,555 yuan/ton, down 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2601 contract is 13,870 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the pig 2603 contract is 13,135 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the pig 2511 contract is 22,855 lots, down 7,687 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 73,636 lots, down 1,327 lots from the previous day; the pig 2601 contract has a trading volume of 12,385 lots, down 1,050 lots, and an open interest of 48,313 lots, up 180 lots; the pig 2603 contract has a trading volume of 3,149 lots, down 941 lots, and an open interest of 31,772 lots, up 257 lots [1]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of the pig 2511 contract is 225 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2601 contract is - 90 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of the pig 2603 contract is 645 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 11 - 1 spread is - 315 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the 1 - 3 spread is 735 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan/ton year - on - year [1].

2025 年 9 月 1 日 短纤：震荡整理，多 PF 空 PR 瓶片：震荡整理 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | 昨日 | 前日 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 短纤2509 | 6380 | 6412 | -32 | PF09-10 | -120 | -114 | -6 | | PF | 短纤2510 | 6500 | 6526 | -26 | PF10-11 | 18 | -22 | 40 | | | 短纤2511 | 6482 | ୧୧48 | -66 | PF基差 | 35 | 29 | 6 | | | 短纤主力持仓量 | 139244 | 162929 | -23685 | 短纤华东现货价格 | 6. 535 | 6. 555 | -20 | | | 短纤主力成交量 | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cotton futures price has increased in volatility due to news [1] - The ICE cotton futures declined by about 1% last Friday, and concerns about the export prospects of US cotton continued to keep ICE cotton in a weak and volatile state [4] Group 3: Summary of Related Catalogs 1. Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of CF2601 yesterday was 14,240 yuan/ton, up 1.21%, and the night - session closing price was 14,015 yuan/ton, down 1.58%. The closing price of CY2511 yesterday was 20,140 yuan/ton, up 0.25%, and the night - session closing price was 19,960 yuan/ton, down 0.89%. The price of ICE US cotton 12 was 66.53 cents/pound, down 1.11%. The trading volume of CF2601 was 683,467 lots, an increase of 394,578 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 754,836 lots, an increase of 54,447 lots. The trading volume of CY2511 was 11,926 lots, a decrease of 1,999 lots, and the open interest was 24,110 lots, an increase of 1,045 lots. The number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 7,762, a decrease of 67, and the effective forecast was 249, unchanged. The number of cotton yarn warrants was 69, a decrease of 5, and the effective forecast was 0, an increase of 74 [2] - **Spot Data**: The price of Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,487 yuan/ton, up 1.11%; the price of Nanjiang 3128 machine - picked cotton was 15,183 yuan/ton, up 1.13%; the price in Shandong was 15,340 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the price in Hebei was 15,308 yuan/ton, up 0.01%. The 3128B index was 15,328 yuan/ton, down 0.05%. The international cotton index M was 74.85 cents/pound, up 0.82%. The price of pure - cotton carded yarn 32S was 20,780 yuan/ton, up 0.10%, and the arrival price was 21,818 yuan/ton, down 0.21% [2] - **Spread Data**: The CF9 - 1 spread was - 295 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous day. The spread between Beijiang 3128 machine - picked cotton and CF509 was 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Domestic Cotton Spot**: The overall trading of domestic cotton spot was sluggish, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream sales basis of 2024/25 north and south Xinjiang machine - picked 3129/29 - 30B with impurity within 3.5 was CF01 + 1150 - 1400. The freight of cotton out of Xinjiang by truck continued to rise slightly [3] - **Domestic Cotton Textile Enterprises**: The trading in the pure - cotton yarn market was average and slowed down compared with the previous period. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid procurement. The C40S and low - count yarn varieties were the main ones, and the feedback on high - count yarn was average. Some large spinning mills raised prices, but there were few followers, and the overall cotton yarn price remained stable [3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of cotton is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5]

Group 1: Investment Rating - The investment strategy for industrial silicon is to mainly short at high prices, and for polysilicon, it is to pay attention to market information [1][2] Group 2: Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the fundamentals of industrial silicon and polysilicon, including price, volume, open interest, basis, profit, inventory, and raw material costs. It also reports on a macro and industry news event where the US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's two - year suspension of import tariffs on Southeast Asian solar cells and components was illegal, which may lead to retroactive taxation [2][4] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: Si2511 closed at 8,390 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from T - 1; PS2511 closed at 49,555 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan from T - 1. Si2511 trading volume was 338,974 lots, an increase of 45,781 lots from T - 1; PS2511 trading volume was 353,059 lots, a decrease of 23,245 lots from T - 1 [2] - **Basis**: Industrial silicon's spot premium (against East China Si5530) was +695 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon's spot premium (against N - type recycled material) was - 555 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Profit**: Silicon factory profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) was - 2,911 yuan/ton, down 180 yuan from T - 1; polysilicon enterprise profit was - 15.6 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.5 yuan from T - 1 [2] - **Inventory**: Industrial silicon's social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) was 54.1 tons, a decrease of 0.2 tons from T - 5; polysilicon's factory inventory was 21.3 tons, a decrease of 3.6 tons from T - 5 [2] - **Raw Material Costs**: Xinjiang silicon ore was 340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1; Xinjiang washed coking coal was 1,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan from T - 5 [2] 2. Macro and Industry News - The US International Trade Court ruled that the Biden administration's two - year suspension of import tariffs on Southeast Asian solar cells and components was illegal. The US Customs and Border Protection may immediately start the retroactive taxation process, and the total tariff on imports from Cambodia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Vietnam during the suspension period could reach tens of billions of dollars [4] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of industrial silicon and polysilicon is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [4]