1. Report Investment Rating - Platinum: ETF shows significant incremental growth, with an expected oscillatory upward trend [1] - Palladium: Demonstrates upward elasticity and is expected to continue strengthening [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the fundamentals of platinum and palladium, including price, trading volume, position, ETF position, inventory, price spread, and exchange rate data. It also provides macro - and industry - related news, and gives the trend intensity of platinum and palladium [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: Platinum futures 2606 closed at 527.55 with an 8.61% increase; gold - exchange platinum closed at 497.89 with a 5.64% increase; New York platinum continuous contract closed at 1931.50 with a 3.05% increase; London spot platinum closed at 1906.20 with a 3.90% increase. Palladium futures 2606 closed at 455.15 with a 7.38% increase; RMB spot palladium closed at 395.00 with a 2.33% increase; New York palladium continuous contract closed at 1,725.00 with a 3.76% increase; London spot palladium closed at 1,646.50 with a 2.52% increase [1] - **Trading Volume and Position**: Guangzhou platinum trading volume was 97,796, a decrease of 119 from the previous day, with a position of 30,716, an increase of 6,066. NYMEX platinum trading volume was 50,662, an increase of 4,232, and the position was 51,116, a decrease of 3,125. Guangzhou palladium trading volume was 58,188, an increase of 3,302, and the position was 10,036, an increase of 2,402. NYMEX palladium trading volume was 9,919, an increase of 1,430, and the position was 21,368, an increase of 378 [1] - **ETF Position**: The previous day's platinum ETF position (in ounces) was 3,217,562, an increase of 28,589; the previous day's palladium ETF position (in ounces) was 1,126,123, an increase of 1,869 [1] - **Inventory**: NYMEX platinum inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 614,561, unchanged; NYMEX palladium inventory (in ounces, previous day) was 189,230, unchanged [1] - **Price Spread**: PT9995 to PT2606 price spread was - 29.66, a decrease of 15.23 from the previous day; Guangzhou platinum 2606 contract to 2610 contract price spread was 1.65, an increase of 2.20; the cost of buying Guangzhou platinum 2606 and selling 2610 inter - period arbitrage was 6.52, an increase of 0.49 [1] - **Exchange Rate**: The US dollar index was 98.40, an increase of 0.18%; the US dollar against the RMB (CNY spot) was 7.04, a decrease of 0.06%; the US dollar against the offshore RMB (CNH spot) was 7.03, a decrease of 0.12%; the US dollar against the RMB (6M forward) was 6.96, an increase of 0.04% [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The Federal Reserve's joint survey shows that tariffs continue to trouble enterprises, and prices are expected to rise by 4% next year [4] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller said that monetary policy is still in a restrictive range, with room for interest rate cuts. The employment market indicates that the Federal Reserve should continue to cut interest rates [4] - US media reported that if Putin rejects the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement, the US will impose new sanctions on Russia's "shadow fleet", and the White House responded that there is no new decision for now [4] - US and Russia will hold talks on the Russia - Ukraine conflict in Miami this weekend [4] - Venezuelan navy escorts the transportation of petroleum by - products [4] - The US has agreed to modify the tariff rates of some commodities in the notice on Swiss tariffs, and expects to reach a trade agreement by the first quarter of 2026 [4] - The European Parliament has approved an agreement to phase out Russian natural gas imports by the end of 2027 [4] - The Bank of Thailand has no current plan to tax gold - related transactions [4] 3.3 Trend Intensity - Platinum trend intensity: 1; Palladium trend intensity: 1. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 indicating the most bearish and 2 indicating the most bullish [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Short fiber and bottle chip are expected to experience short - term low - level fluctuations and face medium - term pressure [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking Short Fiber - For short fiber 2601, the price changed from 6122 the day before yesterday to 6142 yesterday, an increase of 20; PF01 - 02 changed from 16 to 24, an increase of 8 [1] - For short fiber 2602, the price changed from 6106 to 6118, an increase of 12; PF02 - 03 changed from 16 to 10, a decrease of 6 [1] - For short fiber 2603, the price changed from 6090 to 6108, an increase of 18; the main contract basis changed from 154 to 142, a decrease of 12 [1] - The main contract's open interest decreased from 207531 to 152710, a decrease of 54821; the main contract's trading volume changed from 228128 to 227435, a decrease of 93 [1] - The short - fiber East China spot price remained at 6260; the short - fiber production and sales rate increased from 46% to 66%, an increase of 20% [1] Bottle Chip - For bottle chip 2601, the price changed from 5550 to 5568, an increase of 18; PR01 - 02 changed from - 92 to - 80, an increase of 12 [1] - For bottle chip 2602, the price changed from 5642 to 5648, an increase of 6; PR02 - 03 changed from 10 to 8, a decrease of 2 [1] - For bottle chip 2603, the price changed from 5632 to 5640, an increase of 8; the main contract basis changed from 28 to 25, a decrease of 3 [1] - The main contract's open interest increased from 36750 to 38120, an increase of 1370; the main contract's trading volume changed from 29752 to 30524, an increase of 772 [1] - The bottle - chip East China spot price changed from 5660 to 5665, an increase of 5; the bottle - chip South China spot price remained at 5700 [1] Spot News Short Fiber - Today, short - fiber futures fluctuated within a narrow range. Most factory quotes remained stable, with individual quotes down 50. The mainstream quote for semi - bright 1.4D was in the range of 6400 - 6500. As futures prices rose, the discounts offered by traders and futures - cash traders decreased. The mainstream negotiation range for semi - bright 1.4D was mostly in the range of 6150 - 6400, and sales weakened. The average production and sales rate of direct - spinning polyester staple fiber factories improved moderately to 66% [1] Bottle Chip - The upstream raw material futures first rose and then fell. Most polyester bottle - chip factory quotes remained stable, with partial quotes up 20 - 30 yuan. The trading atmosphere in the polyester bottle - chip market was average. Orders from December to February were mostly traded at 5650 - 5680 yuan/ton ex - factory, with a small amount slightly lower at 5620 - 5640 yuan/ton ex - factory and a small amount slightly higher at 5700 - 5720 yuan/ton ex - factory. Prices varied slightly depending on the brand [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of short fiber and bottle chip on the reporting day's daytime session of the main contract futures price fluctuation was 0, with the trend intensity value ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sentiment in the lithium carbonate market is positive, and prices are expected to remain high in the short term [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing price of the 2601 contract was 106,820, with a trading volume of 56,079 and an open interest of 79,454; the closing price of the 2605 contract was 108,620, with a trading volume of 1,158,611 and an open interest of 668,589 [1] - **Warehouse Receipt Volume**: The warehouse receipt volume was 15,636 hands [1] - **Basis Data**: The basis of spot - 2601 was -9,770, spot - 2605 was -11,570, 2601 - 2605 was -1,800, electric carbon - industrial carbon was 2,600, and spot - CIF was 18,218 [1] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1,320, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 2,785 [1] - **Lithium Salt Prices**: The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,050, industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 94,450, battery - grade lithium hydroxide (micropowder) was 90,100, etc [1] - **Consumption - Related Product Prices**: The prices of various ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, hexafluorophosphate, and electrolytes are provided, such as the price of ternary material 523 (polycrystalline/consumer - type) was 158,750 [1] Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 97,171 yuan/ton, with an increase of 1,209 yuan/ton compared to the previous working day; the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 97,050 yuan/ton, up 1,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 94,450 yuan/ton, up 1,100 yuan/ton [2] - In December 17, 2025, due to environmental protection reasons and poor air quality in Hubei, some phosphorus chemical enterprises in Yichang and Jingmen reduced production or shut down, which will affect the supply of key upstream materials for new - energy batteries and may spread to downstream and terminal markets [2][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral view [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report - The night - session of hot - rolled coils and other black commodities saw price increases, with a firm price trend [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: For RB2605, the closing price was 3,084 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton (0.10%); trading volume was 593,611 hands, and positions were 1,604,729 hands, down 10,413 hands. For HC2605, the closing price was 3,245 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%); trading volume was 286,883 hands, and positions were 1,199,948 hands, down 6,813 hands [2]. - **Spot Price Data**: Spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils in various regions remained unchanged compared to the previous day. For example, in Shanghai, the rebar price was 3,280 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil price was 3,270 yuan/ton [2]. - **Basis and Spreads**: The basis of RB2605 was 196 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2605 was 25 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton. Spreads such as RB2601 - RB2605, HC2601 - HC2605, etc., changed compared to the previous day [2]. **Macro and Industry News** - In early December 2025, key steel enterprises produced 1869 million tons of crude steel (average daily output 186.9 million tons, up 2.8% day - on - day), 1714 million tons of pig iron (average daily output 171.4 million tons, down 3.4% day - on - day), and 1829 million tons of steel (average daily output 182.9 million tons, down 12.1% day - on - day) [3]. - In early December 2025, the steel inventory of key enterprises was 1475 million tons, up 3.3% from the previous ten - day period, 19.2% from the beginning of the year, down 4.8% from the same ten - day period of last month, up 4.0% from the same ten - day period of last year, and up 4.6% from the same ten - day period of the year before last [4]. - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs will implement export license management for some steel products [4]. - According to the weekly data of Steel Union on December 11, the output of rebar decreased by 10.53 million tons, hot - rolled coils by 5.6 million tons, and the total of five major varieties by 22.73 million tons; the total inventory of rebar decreased by 24.31 million tons, hot - rolled coils by 3.26 million tons, and the total of five major varieties by 33.5 million tons; the apparent demand of rebar decreased by 13.89 million tons, hot - rolled coils by 2.89 million tons, and the total by 24.45 million tons [4]. - In mid - November, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 871 million tons, down 2.5% from the previous period, up 32.2% from the beginning of the year, and up 27.3% from the same period of last year [4]. - In October 2025, China imported 50.3 million tons of steel, down 4.5 million tons (8.2%) from the previous month, with an average price of 1593.0 US dollars/ton, down 31.1 US dollars/ton (1.9%) from the previous month. From January to October, the cumulative import of steel was 504.1 million tons, down 68.0 million tons (11.9%) year - on - year [4]. **Trend Intensity** - The trend intensity of rebar was 0, and that of hot - rolled coils was 0. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4][5].

商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 PP：厂库仓单注销，盘面横盘震荡 周富强 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0023304 zhoufuqiang@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 LLDPE 基本面数据 | 期 货 | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨日成交 | 持仓变动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PP2605 | 6254 | -0.03% | 407147 | 21552 | | 基差月差变化 | | 昨日价差 | | 前日价差 | | | | 05合约基差 | -134 | | -146 | | | | 05-09合约价差 | -33 | | -35 | | | 重要现货价格 | | 昨日价格 | （元/吨） | 前日价格 | （元/吨） | | | 华北 | 6070 | | 6080 | | | | 华东 | 6120 | | 6110 | | | | 华南 | 6210 | | 6230 | | 资料来源：卓创资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 期货盘面震荡，部分区域仍存结构性货源偏紧情况。但淡季交投氛围偏弱，贸易商多数基于自身 ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 沥青：低位反弹，关注地缘 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 吨 山东 江苏 广东 辽宁 BU厂库仓单 国 泰 君 安 期 货 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 3,012 | 4.08% | 2,974 | -1.26% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 3,014 | 3.36% | 2,981 | -1.09% | | 期货 | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | BU2602 | 手 | 504,034 | 131,674 | 235,465 | (1,592) | | | BU2603 | 手 | 171,022 | 61,203 | 117,175 | 1, ...

2025 年 12 月 18 日 棕榈油：短期或有反弹，震荡寻底 豆油：美豆偏弱运行，豆油企稳乏力 | | | 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价 (日盘） 8,342 | 涨跌幅 -0.81% | 收盘价 （夜盘） 8,398 | 涨跌幅 0.67% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 豆油主力 | 元/吨 | 7,822 | -0.64% | 7,832 | 0.13% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 8,950 | -1.25% | 8,985 | 0.39% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 3,965 | 0.20% | 3,999 | 0.83% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美分/磅 | 49.12 | 0.43% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 505,496 | 135430 | 437,681 | 21,344 | | | 豆油主力 | 手 | 251,763 | ...

2025年12月18日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：失业率上行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位调整 | 2 | | 铜：缺乏明确驱动，价格震荡 | 4 | | 锌：高位震荡 | 6 | | 铅：库存减少，支撑价格 | 8 | | 锡：供应再出扰动 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 11 | | 氧化铝：底部反弹 | 11 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 11 | | 铂：ETF出现明显增量，震荡上行 | 13 | | 钯：上涨弹性显现，继续走强 | 13 | | 镍：过剩结构性转向，关注印尼政策风险 | 15 | | 不锈钢：供需双弱运行，钢价低位震荡 | 15 | 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 期货研究 商 品 研 究 究 所 商 品 研 究 2025 年 12 月 18 日 黄金：失业率上行 白银：高位调整 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 贵金属基本面数据 | 贵金属基本面数据 | | | | | | | --- | --- ...

Report Summary of PVC Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the reports [1][2][3] 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market's high - production and high - inventory structure is difficult to change in the short term, but supply - side production cuts during the maintenance peak season next year can be expected due to the continuous decline in caustic soda profits and historically low chlor - alkali comprehensive profits [2] - PVC futures prices rebounded starting from last Friday night driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. There may still be a small rebound space in the short term, but before the 03 contract, futures contracts face the situation of high开工 and weak demand [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Data - The 01 contract futures price is 4423, the East China spot price is 4400, the basis is - 23, and the 1 - 5 month spread is - 257 [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price center of the PVC spot market fluctuates and rises, but the trading atmosphere weakens during the session. The short - term adjustment of the PVC supply - demand fundamentals is limited, the total production reduction by enterprises is small, the market supply remains high, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation. The ex - warehouse cash price of calcium carbide - based type 5 PVC in East China is 4380 - 4500 yuan/ton, and that of ethylene - based PVC is 4450 - 4600 yuan/ton [1] 3.3 Market Situation Analysis - The rebound of PVC futures prices is driven by macro anti - involution sentiment and coking coal rebound. Some devices may cut production due to large losses, but winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, and the scale of new maintenance may be limited. The game of large - scale production cut expectations may occur after the 03 contract. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is large [1] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral trend [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - On December 17, all four major index futures contracts for the current month rose. IF rose 1.86%, IH rose 1.43%, IC rose 2.02%, and IM rose 1.54%. The total trading volume of index futures rebounded, indicating an increase in investors' trading enthusiasm. However, the total open interest of IF, IH, and IM decreased, while that of IC increased [1][2]. - The trend strength of IF and IH is 1, and that of IC and IM is also 1. Trump's order to block sanctioned oil tankers in and out of Venezuela led to a significant rise in US WTI crude oil and Brent crude oil, and the escalation of geopolitical tensions increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals [6]. - The merger plan of CICC, Dongxing, and Cinda was finalized, with the exchange price set at 36.91 yuan per share. After the merger, CICC's operating income is estimated to be about 27.4 billion yuan, and it will become the fourth brokerage with total assets exceeding one trillion yuan. A - share and Hong Kong - stock markets showed an upward trend, while US stock markets closed down [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Index Futures Data - **Prices and Changes**: The closing prices of major stock indices such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all rose, with increases ranging from 1.25% to 1.95%. The corresponding index futures contracts also showed varying degrees of increase, with the highest increase of 2.47% for IC2606 [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The total trading volume of IF, IH, IC, and IM increased by 39,510, 4,636, 21,520, and 35,895 lots respectively. The total open interest of IF decreased by 628 lots, IH decreased by 1,896 lots, IC increased by 2,748 lots, and IM decreased by 9,704 lots [2]. - **Basis**: Different index futures contracts have different basis values, such as IF2512 with a basis of - 1.68, IH2512 with a basis of - 4.48, IC2512 with a basis of 8.97, and IM2512 with a basis of 6.26 [1]. 3.2 Index Futures Top 20 Member Position Changes - For different index futures contracts, the long - and short - position changes of the top 20 members vary. For example, for IF2512, the long - position decreased by 22,412 lots, and the short - position decreased by 22,426 lots [5]. 3.3 Market - Driving Factors - **Geopolitical Factors**: Trump's order to block oil tankers in and out of Venezuela led to a significant rise in oil prices and increased market concerns about supply tightening. Geopolitical tensions also increased the demand for safe - haven assets, pushing up the prices of precious metals [6]. - **Corporate Merger**: The merger plan of CICC, Dongxing, and Cinda was finalized, which is a major merger in the brokerage sector. After the merger, CICC's scale and competitiveness will be significantly enhanced [7]. - **Macroeconomic and Policy Factors**: Fed Governor Waller said that the employment market is weak, and the Fed's interest - rate cuts have helped the employment market. The A - share market rose, and the US stock market closed down due to investors' assessment of the US economic report [7].