Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - **LPG**: The supply - demand situation lacks significant improvement. Domestic LPG prices are trending upward due to cost support from international prices and limited supply supplements. In the short - term, civil demand remains seasonally weak, and the overall chemical end - use demand is expected to have limited improvement. Attention should be paid to the change of import costs and PDH device dynamics [3]. - **Propylene**: The domestic propylene market price is trending upward, driven by supply - demand changes. In the short - term, price support remains, but there is a possibility of a decline from high levels due to the pressure on downstream profits and the expected return of major supply - releasing devices in mid - to early September [5]. 3. Section Summaries LPG Part - **Price & Spread** - Domestic LPG market prices have generally increased. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, and the price of Shandong ether - post LPG increased by 80 yuan/ton week - on - week [8][15]. - The congestion in the Panama Canal has eased, and the freight from the US to the Far East has slightly decreased from its high level [16]. - **Supply** - The total domestic LPG commercial volume is 54.8 tons, a 3.0% increase week - on - week. The commercial volume of civil gas is 21.5 tons (+1.0%), and the commercial volume of ether - post C4 is 17.5 tons (+0.2%) [3][70]. - The LPG shipments from the US and the Middle East to China have decreased, while the Canadian shipments are relatively stable. The number of international ship arrivals in China has increased by 2.7 tons week - on - week, mainly in East China [3]. - **Demand & Inventory** - In terms of chemical demand, the PDH operating rate decreased by 2.6% to 73.0% this week, and the MTBE operating rate remained unchanged from last week [3][84]. - Civil gas inventories have slightly decreased, while ether - post C4 inventories have increased. The LPG terminal inventory in South China (excluding Fujian) has increased, while the inventories in other regions have decreased [95][105]. Propylene Part - **Price & Spread** - The operating rates of some propylene production and consumption devices have changed. For example, the operating rate of domestic PDH decreased by 2.6%, and the operating rates of some downstream devices such as Jingbo's PP and Shandong Hongxin's acrylic acid have changed [4][116]. - Propylene prices are trending upward. The prices of domestic propylene in Shandong, East China, and other regions have increased to varying degrees week - on - week [5][131]. - **Balance Sheet** - In the national propylene balance sheet, the supply and demand situation shows certain monthly changes. In August 2025, the total propylene production was 528 tons, and the total demand was 535 tons, with a balance of 13 tons [137][142].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term pulp market may continue the low - level oscillation pattern. Spot prices are suppressed by high inventory and have limited room for rebound. Later, attention should be paid to port inventory, seasonal demand during the "Golden September and Silver October", terminal demand orders, and the capital trend in the market under the support of rising broadleaf prices. Although Suzano's price increase and marginal improvement in demand inject rebound momentum, high inventory and delivery risks still restrict the upside space. The valuation of the futures market is neutral and slightly low. The recommended strategies are to try long positions on far - month contracts on dips [88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry News - Shandong Sun Paper plans to invest up to 1.53 billion yuan in a 700,000 - ton high - grade packaging paper project at its Yandian plant in Shandong, with a construction period of 18 months. It also announced a 600,000 - ton bleached chemical pulp project with a total investment of up to 3.51 billion yuan [5]. - As of August 28, 2025, the inventory of pulp in major Chinese ports showed a downward trend. The inventory in Changshu Port was 515,000 tons, down 15,000 tons (2.8% MoM); in Qingdao Port, it was 1.39 million tons, down 10,000 tons (0.7% MoM); in Gaolan Port, it was 52,000 tons, down 10,000 tons (16.1% MoM). The total inventory of major ports was 2.084 million tons, down 48,000 tons (2.3% MoM) [5]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Market Trends - On August 29, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 682 yuan/ton, down 1.45% MoM and up 251.55% YoY; the Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 82 yuan/ton, up 95.24% MoM and 139.81% YoY [12]. - The 11 - 01 month spread was - 326 yuan/ton, down 27.34% MoM; the 01 - 05 month spread was - 20 yuan/ton, down 200% MoM [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The prices of imported coniferous pulp in the spot market declined slightly. The prices of Silver Star, Cariboo, Northern Wood, Lion Brand, and Russian Needle all decreased compared to the previous period. The prices of imported broadleaf pulp showed a mixed trend, with some regions showing a slight increase due to cost pressure, while others were weak due to limited acceptance from downstream paper mills [29][34]. - The import profits of coniferous and broadleaf pulp decreased. The import profit of Silver Star was - 159 yuan/ton on August 29, 2025, down 92.32% MoM and 1082.86% YoY [27]. 3.3.2 Supply - The supply of domestic chemimechanical pulp increased this week. The weekly output of domestic chemimechanical pulp was 872,000 tons on August 28, 2025, up 3.81% MoM [44]. - In June 2025, the inventory in European ports increased YoY and MoM, and the global pulp outbound volume increased seasonally MoM but was lower YoY. In May, the W20 pulp inventory increased significantly [48][52]. - In June, the export volume of coniferous pulp from Canada, Chile, Finland, and the United States to China increased MoM but was still at a low level YoY. In July, the export volume of Chilean coniferous pulp to China increased significantly. In June, the export volume of broadleaf pulp from Brazil and Indonesia to China decreased slightly MoM but was at a high level YoY. In July, the export volume of Brazilian broadleaf pulp to China remained at a high level YoY, while that of Uruguay decreased significantly MoM [55][57]. - In July 2025, the total import volume of Chinese pulp decreased. The import volume of coniferous pulp decreased by 4.64% MoM, and that of broadleaf pulp decreased by 5.84% MoM [61]. 3.3.3 Demand - The domestic offset paper market was in a supply - demand game, with light trading. The production of large - scale factories was basically stable, but the industry's profitability was poor, and there were situations of paper machine conversion and shutdown for maintenance. The downstream consumption was flat, and the purchasing was mainly for replenishment [64]. - The copperplate paper market was sluggish. Factories maintained stable production, but demand continued to decline due to various factors. The consumption of base paper by downstream users was slow, and the market was in a stalemate [67]. - The white cardboard market was stable. Both supply and demand increased, and large - scale manufacturers achieved a balance between production and sales. Some paper mills planned to raise prices in September [70]. - The living paper market was in a flat consolidation. The terminal demand did not improve significantly, and the industry's operating rate remained at a low level. The price of raw pulp had limited support for the price of living paper [73]. - In July, the retail sales in the pulp terminal demand areas weakened seasonally MoM. The retail sales of cultural office supplies and daily necessities increased significantly YoY, while the retail sales of books and magazines and the production of dairy products decreased YoY [76]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 29, 2025, the total warehouse receipt quantity of pulp was 247,400 tons, with 229,200 tons in warehouses and 18,200 tons in factories, down 1.79% and 0% MoM respectively, and down 48.45% and 38.46% YoY respectively [78]. - The total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.084 million tons on August 29, 2025, down 2.25% MoM and up 12.71% YoY [85].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the tin price rose significantly with a weekly increase of 4.7%, but dropped by 2.17% on Friday night, closing at 272,590 yuan/ton. The news of Yunnan Tin's shutdown for maintenance on August 30, 2025, which is expected to last no more than 45 days, affected market sentiment. Social inventory decreased domestically, while LME inventory overseas increased by 270 tons. Tin ore imports in July decreased compared to June, and the production of tin ingots is expected to remain flat or increase slightly in August. With a bullish macro - environment, approaching peak demand season, and limited tin ingot imports from Indonesia, the tin price may return to around 270,000 yuan and fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading Aspect (Price, Spread, Inventory, Funds, Transaction, Position) 3.1.1 Spot - This week, the LME 0 - 3 premium was 175 US dollars/ton, and the domestic spot premium was 600 yuan/ton. Overseas premiums declined, with premiums in Baltimore and Taiwan narrowing [11][14]. 3.1.2 Spread - This week, the tin monthly structure changed from the previous B structure to the C structure [18]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Domestically, social inventory decreased by 117 tons, while futures inventory increased by 241 tons. LME inventory increased by 225 tons, and the proportion of cancelled warrants dropped to 11.44% [21][26]. 3.1.4 Funds - As of this Friday, the settled funds for Shanghai tin were 207,660 million yuan, and the funds flowed in over the past 10 days [30]. 3.1.5 Transaction and Position - This week, the trading volume and position of Shanghai tin decreased slightly, while the position increased slightly. The trading volume of LME tin decreased slightly, and the position continued to decline [32][38]. 3.1.6 Position - to - Inventory Ratio - This week, the position - to - inventory ratio of Shanghai tin decreased slightly [43]. 3.2 Tin Supply (Tin Ore, Refined Tin) 3.2.1 Tin Ore - In May 2025, the production of tin concentrate was 5,961 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.56%. In July 2025, imports were 10,278 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 31.79%, and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 32.32%. This week, the processing fee for 40% tin ore in Yunnan remained at 12,000 yuan/ton, while the processing fee for 60% tin ore in Guangxi, Jiangxi, and Hunan dropped to 8,000 yuan/ton. The profit - and - loss level of tin ore imports rebounded slightly [47][48]. 3.2.2 Smelting - In July 2025, the domestic tin ingot production was 15,940 tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.09%. This week, the combined operating rate of Jiangxi and Yunnan provinces was 59.64%, a slight increase from last week [53][55]. 3.2.3 Import - In July 2025, domestic tin ingot imports were 2,167 tons, exports were 1,673 tons, and net imports were 393 tons. The tin ingots imported from Indonesia to China were 812 tons. The latest import profit - and - loss was - 16,622 yuan/ton [61]. 3.3 Tin Demand (Tin Materials, End - Users) 3.3.1 Consumption - In July 2025, the apparent consumption of tin ingots was 16,434 tons, and the actual consumption was 15,572 tons [65]. 3.3.2 Tin Materials - This week, the downstream processing fee decreased slightly. The monthly operating rate of solder enterprises in April decreased slightly. The production and sales of major tin - plated sheet enterprises in May decreased slightly [68]. 3.3.3 End - User Consumption - In July 2025, the production of end - user products varied. The performance of home appliances was weak, with a general month - on - month decline. The production of integrated circuits, mobile phones, and computer systems decreased month - on - month and was at a historically low level. The consumption of home appliances and new energy also decreased month - on - month. This week, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rebounded, in line with the performance of the tin price [76][78][82].

Report Overview - Report Title: Weekly Report on Offset Printing Paper - Report Date: August 31, 2025 - Report Author: Shi Yining from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - This week, the price of offset printing paper continued to decline under the pressure of复产 expectations. The main factors affecting the market price trend include the decline in the settlement price of some paper mills at the end of the month, the end of the printing work for textbooks and teaching materials for the autumn semester, cautious purchasing by dealers, and the general support of the cost side. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - The inventory days of domestic double - offset paper on Thursday this week increased by 1.04% compared with last Thursday, and the increase rate this week expanded by 0.44 percentage points compared with the previous week. The scale production lines maintained normal operation, but the willingness of dealers to take delivery decreased, and downstream printing factories mostly consumed inventory, resulting in continuous accumulation of paper mill inventory [6]. - The operating load rate of domestic double - offset paper this week was 48.69%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, and the trend turned from decline to increase this week. Although the restarted production lines in Jiangsu were operating normally, some small and medium - sized production lines in Shandong and Henan had production cuts, limiting the recovery space of the industry's operating load [6]. Market Trend - The average price of 70g high - white double - offset paper on August 29 was 4825 yuan/ton, the same as yesterday and 100 yuan/ton lower than last week [9]. - In the spot market, the prices of various brands of 70g double - offset paper in Shandong and Guangdong markets decreased week - on - week. The pre - tax and after - tax gross profits also decreased week - on - week [10]. Supply - Demand Data Industry Capacity - In 2024, the domestic double - offset paper industry capacity was about 16.52 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7%. The annual output was about 9.478 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 57% [19]. Weekly Data - This week, the domestic double - offset paper industry output was 163.6 thousand tons, and the capacity utilization rate was 48.7%. The sales volume was 160.0 thousand tons, and the weekly enterprise inventory was 347.8 thousand tons [24][29]. Import and Export - In June, the domestic double - offset paper import volume was about 12 thousand tons, and the export volume was about 62 thousand tons [35]. Inventory - From the monthly sample inventory data, both social inventory and enterprise inventory were mainly in the process of destocking [41]. Terminal Consumption - In recent years, the growth rate of the retail sales of books, newspapers, and magazines has gradually slowed down [47]. Market Judgment - Supply: Domestically, the output and capacity utilization rate of the double - offset paper industry were 163.6 thousand tons and 48.7% respectively this week. In terms of imports, the import volume in July was about 12 thousand tons, continuing the previous low - import volume [51]. - Demand: Domestically, the sales volume of double - offset paper decreased month - on - month this week. In terms of exports, the export volume in July was about 62 thousand tons [51]. - Viewpoint: This week, the average market price of 70g wood - pulp high - white double - offset paper decreased by 1.35% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.87 percentage points compared with last week. The average market price of 70g wood - pulp natural - white double - offset paper decreased by 0.76% month - on - month, and the decline rate expanded by 0.17 percentage points compared with last week. Looking ahead, there is still a supply - demand contradiction in the double - offset paper market next week, and paper prices are expected to continue to decline [51].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and it is necessary to be vigilant against multiple potential risks in the news. The stainless - steel price is in a low - level shock due to the weak supply and demand in reality [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market - **Fundamentals**: After the increase in Indonesian quotas is transmitted to the ore price, the overall decline of Indonesian nickel ore is relatively moderate, and the premium margin is temporarily stable. The cash cost of the pyrometallurgical process has decreased by about 2%. The nickel ore contradiction usually eases in the second half of the year, and the willingness of funds to speculate has decreased, which may limit the elasticity of the nickel price. The short - term inventory of the smelting end has not increased as expected, and the production schedule of ternary materials is considerable. The cost curve is still supported by the cash cost of the pyrometallurgical integration in the short term. The weak fundamentals of nickel iron have improved marginally, and the price has recovered due to the marginal decline in inventory. However, the expected production of refined nickel still exerts pressure, and the increase in low - cost integrated supply or equity resource processing supply drags down the upside of the nickel price [1]. - **Inventory**: China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 1,371 tons to 38,566 tons. LME nickel inventory decreased by 204 tons to 209,544 tons [3]. - **Market News**: There are multiple events affecting the nickel market, such as Canada's potential halt of nickel exports to the US, the trial production of an Indonesian nickel - iron project, environmental violations in an Indonesian industrial park, Indonesia's plan to shorten the mining quota period, changes in the RKAB plan, production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelting industrial parks, and Indonesia's plan to crack down on illegal mining [6][7][9]. Stainless - Steel Market - **Fundamentals**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of stainless - steel supply and demand have significantly converged compared with previous years. The tariff contradiction on the demand side and the weak consumption in the post - real - estate cycle have resonated, and the apparent demand growth rate in July decreased to 2%. After the "de - valuation - de - production" stage from June to July, the supply - demand mismatch has slightly eased. The supply in August increased month - on - month by 4%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate dropped to 2%. The production schedule in Indonesia in August was 420,000 tons, with a year - on - year decrease of 1% and a month - on - month increase of 11%. The expected production in September has rebounded. Due to the high inventory in the upstream and mid - stream and the cautious procurement of the downstream, there is a lack of short - term upward drivers, and the long - term recovery still depends on the start of the overall macro - inventory replenishment cycle. The short - term profit margin has been compressed, and the cost logic limits the downward space [2]. - **Inventory**: On August 31, the SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,267 tons, with a half - month - on - month decrease of 12% and a year - on - year increase of 28%. On August 28, 2025, the stainless - steel social inventory was 1,082,956 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.81%. China's 14 - port nickel ore inventory increased by 539,700 wet tons to 12.5982 million wet tons [5]. - **Market News**: A Shandong steel mill has started maintenance due to capacity limitations and production reduction targets, which will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coil [8]. Futures Data The report provides weekly key data tracking for nickel and stainless - steel futures, including closing prices, trading volumes, and various price spreads and premiums [11]. Charts There are a series of charts showing the price trends, trading volumes, inventory changes, and cost - profit situations of nickel, stainless - steel, and related products [12 - 24].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the week from August 25 - 31, the spot market for live pigs showed weak and volatile prices. The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume. The futures market also had a weak performance, and the basis structure switched. Looking ahead to September 1 - 7, the spot price of live pigs will run weakly, with both supply and demand increasing but limited rebound space. For the futures market, different contract opportunities and price ranges are suggested [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs This Week's Market Review (8.25 - 8.31) - **Spot Market**: The price of 20KG piglets in Henan was 31.35 yuan/kg (last week: 33.1 yuan/kg), the live pig price in Henan was 13.78 yuan/kg (unchanged from last week), and the price of 50KG binary sows nationwide was 1600 yuan/head (last week: 1611 yuan/head). The supply was relatively loose, and the demand led to an increase in slaughter volume, with some speculative demand for warehousing and secondary fattening starting. The average slaughter weight nationwide was 123.6KG (last week: 123.8KG), a 0.16% decrease [1]. - **Futures Market**: The LH2509 contract of live pig futures had a high of 13875 yuan/ton, a low of 13010 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 13015 yuan/ton (last week: 13760 yuan/ton). The basis of the LH2509 contract was 765 yuan/ton (last week: 20 yuan/ton) [2]. Next Week's Market Outlook (9.1 - 9.7) - **Spot Market**: The spot price of live pigs will run weakly. In August, the spot price was lower than expected. From the supply side, the supply of standard pigs will increase significantly from August, and the supply pressure in September is also large. From the demand side, there is a seasonal demand increase in September, but overall, the rebound space in September is limited [3]. - **Futures Market**: The price of the LH2601 contract on August 29 was 13870 yuan/ton. It is expected that the basis structure of the November contract will change to a contango structure in advance. The November contract is under pressure, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 1 reverse spread. The price of piglets is expected to continue to fall in September, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of purchased - for - fattening pigs after March, and attention can be paid to the hedging opportunities of the March and May contracts. The short - term support level of the LH2601 contract is 13500 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14500 yuan/ton [4]. Other Data - **Basis and Spread**: This week's basis was 765 yuan/ton, and the LH2511 - LH2601 spread was - 315 yuan/ton [9]. - **Supply Data**: This week's average weight was 123.6KG (last week: 123.8KG). In June, the pork production was 5.295 billion tons, a 4.3% month - on - month increase; in July, the pork import was 8.83 million tons, a 0.18% month - on - month decrease [12].

投资咨询从业资格号: Z0015722 shaowanyi020696@gtjas.com 本周价格走势:延续跌势,长协基准价高于近月合约价格 线酸锂期货合约价格受永兴材料安许证续证影响再度大跌。2509 合约收于 77000 元/吨,周环比下跌 2180 元/吨,2511 合约收于 77180 元/吨,周环比下跌 1780 元/吨,现货周环比下跌 4250 元/吨为 79650 元/吨。SMM 期现基差（2509 合约）下跌 2070元/吨至+2650 元/吨，富宝贸易商升贴水报价_310 元/吨,周环比持平。2509-2511 合约价差-180元/吨,环比下跌 400元/吨。 供需基本面:去库不及预期 供应:根据中联金,锂矿港口库存 45.6万吨,环比增长6.4万吨。根据钢联、锂矿库存为10.5万 吨,环比减少 2.6万吨。海外向中国发运量来看,8月澳矿持平,约 31.9万吨,智利低于7月水平,为 2.88万吨,马里未进行发运,津巴布韦环比增长至前期高位,尼日利亚维持高发运量,鸟啵反应 Bikita 恢复生产。本周碳酸锂产量 1.9万吨，环比减少 108吨，其中云母较８月７日当周减少 1910吨，辉石和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - International market: It is in a low-level consolidation phase, and there is an opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's sugar production. The 24/25 sugar - making season has a significant global supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see a restorative increase in production and inventory in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. New York raw sugar is likely to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to Brazil's production and export rhythm and India's relevant industrial policies [3][33] - Domestic market: It is in a range - bound consolidation, and there is an opportunity at the lower end of the range. In the 24/25 sugar - making season, the domestic market is expected to have continuous production increases and cost decreases. The import policy for syrup and premixed powder has tightened. Zhengzhou sugar follows the trend of raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The pattern of stronger domestic and weaker international markets continues. In the 25/26 season, the market expects a decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [3][33] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review 3.1.1 International Market - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.85 (previous value: 97.72), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.43 (previous value: 5.44) [1][5] - Commodity prices: WTI crude oil price is $64.01 per barrel (+0.38%), and the price of the active contract for New York raw sugar is 16.34 cents per pound (-0.61%) [1] - CFTC positions: As of August 26, long positions of funds decreased by 1,247 lots, short positions increased by 1,426 lots, and net long positions decreased by 2,673 lots to - 98,204 lots [1][15] - Production data: As of August 16, the cumulative sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar - making season was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.12 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 sugar - making season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season. OCSB data shows that Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Domestic Market - Price data: The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton; Zhengzhou sugar's main contract is reported at 5,604 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract increased slightly [2][14] - Production and consumption data: As of May, China's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons. CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons, and imports will be 5 million tons. For the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons, and imports 5 million tons. As of July, China's cumulative sugar imports in the 24/25 season were 3.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 330,000 tons [2][14][27] 3.2 Next Week's Market Outlook 3.2.1 International Market - Market trend: Low - level consolidation, with an opportunity to re - evaluate Brazil's production. The market is in a pattern of strong reality and weak expectations. The 24/25 season has a significant supply shortage, while the 25/26 season is expected to see production increases and inventory accumulation. New York raw sugar is likely to oscillate at a low level [3][33] - Focus points: Brazil's production and export rhythm, and India's relevant industrial policies [3][33] 3.2.2 Domestic Market - Market trend: Range - bound consolidation, with an opportunity at the lower end of the range. The domestic market in the 24/25 season is expected to have continuous production increases and cost decreases. Zhengzhou sugar follows raw sugar, and trading is centered around the import rhythm. The 25/26 season is expected to have a decline in the sugar yield rate in Guangxi and an increase in production costs [3][33] - Focus points: The lower end of the price range [3][33] 3.3 Macro Data - Exchange rates: The US dollar index is 97.85 (previous value: 97.72), and the US dollar to Brazilian real exchange rate is 5.43 (previous value: 5.44) [5] - Crude oil: WTI crude oil price is $64.01 per barrel (+0.38%) [5] 3.4 Industry Data 3.4.1 Market Price and Trading Data - Price and basis: The price of the active contract for New York raw sugar is 16.34 cents per pound (-0.61%). The spot quotation of Guangxi Group is 5,940 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan per ton; Zhengzhou sugar's main contract is reported at 5,604 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66 yuan per ton; the basis of the main contract increased slightly [14] - Warehouse receipts: As of last weekend, the warehouse receipts for Zhengzhou white sugar were 13,916 lots [15] - CFTC positions: As of August 26, long positions of funds decreased by 1,247 lots, short positions increased by 1,426 lots, and net long positions decreased by 2,673 lots to - 98,204 lots [1][15] 3.4.2 Industry Supply and Demand Data - Global supply and demand: The International Sugar Organization (ISO) predicts a supply shortage of 5.47 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - making season (previous prediction: 4.88 million tons) [26] - Brazil: As of August 16, in the 25/26 sugar - making season, the cumulative crushed sugarcane in the central - southern region of Brazil was 354 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.6%; sugar production was 22.89 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%; alcohol production was 16.07 billion liters, a year - on - year decrease of 12%; the cumulative sugar - cane ratio for sugar production was 52.51%, compared with 49.14% in the same period of the previous year [26] - India: As of May 15, India's sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 25.74 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.8 million tons. ISMA/NFCSF predicts that the total sugar production in India in the 25/26 season will be 34.9 million tons, compared with 29.5 million tons in the 24/25 season [26] - Thailand: Thailand's sugar production in the 24/25 season was 10.08 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.27 million tons [27] - China: CAOC predicts that the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 season will be 11.16 million tons, consumption will be 15.8 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports will be 5 million tons; for the 25/26 season, production is expected to be 11.2 million tons, consumption 15.9 million tons (+100,000 tons), and imports 5 million tons. Customs data shows that sugar imports in July 2025 were 740,000 tons, and the cumulative imports in the 24/25 season were 3.25 million tons. As of May, the national sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - making season was 11.16 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.2 million tons, sales were 8.11 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.52 million tons, and the cumulative sales rate was 72.69% [27]

上周观点及逻辑 棕榈油:产地供需两旺,但基本面驱动暂时充分,技术上存在高位回调需求,同时本周跟随宏观情绪 较为紧密,棕榈油 01 合约周跌 2%。 豆油:市场交易四季度缺豆情形暂缓,油脂板块高位震荡整理,豆油土涨动能不足,01 合约周跌 1.11%。 本周观点及逻辑: 棕榈油:马来今年库存高点已经从 4 月以来被盘面逐步消化,6 月起印尼相关价格指标持续表现扛跌 迹象,印马价差持续高位、欧洲油脂相对全球溢价提前见底、欧洲柴油裂差格外走强为 6 月起的油脂注火 新的上涨动力。从产地基本面来看,前几期周报中我们预估马来 7月库存保守估计不会累至 220 万吨以上, 中性估计不会超过 215 万吨的预估已经兑现,并带动棕榈油价格突破 9100 元/吨的平台来到 9500 元的三 年新高。8月马棕产量大致仍在 180-185万吨一线,而出口可能好在 140万吨左右,国内消费继续维持 35 万吨高位,库存仅微增至 220-230 万吨。印尼方面,印马价差继续维持高位,但本周 CPO 招标价有所松 动,同时印尼精炼利润大幅走高,反映销区进口情绪极好。由于 99月参考价提档概率偏大,提税前至少 8 月印尼很难在报价上有所松 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content available 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot performance of coal and coke is relatively weak, limiting the upward driving force of futures prices. Although the overall supply increment of upstream is limited, the suppression of coking coal demand and the decline of trading sentiment outweigh the impact of the supply side. This week, coking coal inventory has accumulated significantly at the port end, and coke inventory has not decreased significantly due to supply suppression. Therefore, the coal and coke futures prices have declined towards the spot price. However, there coexist the incremental risk of future supply and the support of high molten iron production downstream. In the short term, the prices of coal and coke may show a volatile and repeated trend [3][6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - Affected by previous accident news and upcoming major events, the release of incremental production in coal-producing areas is limited, and the weekly output of raw coal in the FW caliber is basically flat compared with the previous week. In terms of imported Mongolian coal, the customs clearance efficiency of the Ganqimaodu Port has declined, and the number of passing vehicles has dropped from the high level. However, the number of passing vehicles at the Ceke Port has increased significantly compared with the previous week. Therefore, the overall passing volume still remains at a year-on-year high [3] - The daily average output of independent coking plants is 64.52 (-0.93), and the daily average output of steel mills and coking enterprises is 46.09 (-0.64) [8] 3.2 Demand - Affected by major events in the north, the capacity utilization rate of coking plants has dropped sharply recently, and the spot profit of coke has further increased compared with the previous week. The downstream steel mills' production still remains at a relatively high level, providing strong support for the immediate consumption demand of coke and iron ore spot [4] - The molten iron output is 240.13 (-0.62) [8] 3.3 Macro - In August, the manufacturing PMI increased slightly compared with the previous month but still remained below the 50 boom-bust line. Recently, domestic listed entities have concentrated on releasing their semi-annual reports, and the profit performance continues to provide support for the trading sentiment of macro risk appetite. However, it is still necessary to be vigilant against the overpricing of strong macro expectations and the potential risk of a rapid decline in risk appetite [5] 3.4 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coking Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 860.45 (+0.02), FW cleaned coal 444.54 (+1.80) | Independent coking plants' daily average 64.52 (-0.93), steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 46.09 (-0.64) | | Demand | Molten iron output 240.13 (-0.62) | Molten iron output 240.13 (-0.62) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +17.3, mine raw coal +1.0, mine cleaned coal +8.0, independent coking -5.1, steel mill coking -0.5, port +13.9, FW port -6.0 | MS total inventory -1.1, independent coking +0.9, steel mill +0.5, port -2.5 | | Profit | Commodity coal 424 (-4) | Average profit of coking enterprises -55 (+32) | | Warehouse Receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1145 | Rizhao quasi-first-grade coke warehouse receipt 1525 | 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Coking Coal Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of coking coal 2601 was 986.5, a decrease of 33.5 compared with the previous day; the closing price of coking coal 2509 was 1510, a decrease of 15 compared with the previous day [62] - **Coke Futures**: On August 29, 2025, the closing price of coke 2509 was 1481, an increase of 102.5 compared with the previous day; the closing price of coke 2601 was 2740, an increase of 1424 compared with the previous day [64] - **Coal and Coke Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of JM2509 - JM2601 and J2509 - J2601 is shown in the report [67] - **Coal and Coke Spot**: The spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke are shown in the report [70] - **Coal and Coke Basis**: The spot price performance is relatively stable, the futures price has declined, and the basis of coal and coke has both narrowed [73]