1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price of mainstream delivery products shows different trends in different regions, with some remaining flat and some increasing. The European timber spruce and fir in the Jiangsu market are still in short supply. [4] - In August, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand, with 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of some ports has changed, and the total inventory of the four major ports has decreased by 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 has increased by 1.7% compared with last week, and the market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level. The monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. [16] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - As of August 3rd, there are 3 ships departing from New Zealand in August, 2 going to the Chinese mainland and 1 going to Taiwan, China and South Korea with reduced load. It is expected that about 3 ships will arrive in August and 0 in September, with an expected arrival volume of 1190,000 cubic meters in August. [5][8] 3.2 Demand and Inventory - As of the week of August 1st, the daily average shipment volume of Lanshan Port was 17,600 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 2,000 cubic meters), and that of Taicang Port was 12,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week increase of 6,000 cubic meters). [6][12] - The inventory of Lanshan Port is about 1,245,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 cubic meters), Taicang Port is about 376,400 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 59,900 cubic meters), Xinminzhou is about 390,300 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 30,800 cubic meters), and Jiangdu Port is about 191,800 cubic meters (a week - on - week decrease of 15,000 cubic meters). The total inventory of the four major ports is 2,203,800 cubic meters, a decrease of 116,200 cubic meters compared with the previous week. [6][12] 3.3 Market Trends - As of August 8th, the closing price of the main contract LG2509 was 830.5 yuan per cubic meter, a 1.7% increase compared with last week. The market has been fluctuating at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread trend has shown slight differentiation. The 09 - 11 monthly spread is - 10 yuan per cubic meter, the 09 - 01 monthly spread is - 11 yuan per cubic meter, and the 11 - 01 monthly spread is - 1 yuan per cubic meter. [16] 3.4 Price and Spread - The spot price of logs shows different trends in different regions and specifications, with some remaining flat and some increasing. [20] - The downstream building wood square spot price in Shandong and Jiangsu regions has mostly remained flat compared with last week. [22] - The report presents the regional price differences of mainstream timber species and the price differences between tree species and specifications through data and charts. [23][40] 3.5 Other - As of the week of August 8th, the Baltic Dry Bulk Index BDI was recorded at 2051 points, a 1.6% increase compared with last week; the Handysize Shipping Index BHSI was recorded at 683 points, a 0.7% increase compared with last week; the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index SCFI was recorded at 1489.68 points, a 3.9% decrease compared with last week. [6][54][55] - In terms of exchange rates, the US dollar index has fluctuated narrowly this week. The US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate has decreased by 0.4% week - on - week to 7.184, and the US dollar - to - New Zealand dollar exchange rate has decreased by 0.6% to 1.680. [6][54][55]

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年8月10日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：不宜追空，正套加仓 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 2 观点综述 01 本周原油观点：不宜追空，正套加仓 全球原油供应呈现区域性分化与结构性调整。OPEC+核心八国（沙特、俄罗斯等）7月减产 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 尿素周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 资料来源：钢联，隆众资讯，国泰君安期货研究 本周尿素观点：区间运行 | | • | 本周(20250731-0806)，中国尿素生产企业产量：132.85万吨，较上期跌2.63万吨，环比跌1.94%。周期内新增4家企业装置停车，停车企业恢复4 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | | 家（装置）企业，同时延续上周期的装置变化，本周产量小幅减少。下周，中国尿素周产量预计135万吨附近，较本期小幅增加。下个周期暂 无企业装置计划停车，1家停车企业恢复生产，考虑到短时的企业故障发生，延续上周期的变化，预期下个周期产量增加的概率较大。（隆众 | | | | 资讯） | | 需求 | • | 内需方面，内需短期持续偏弱。北方地区农业追肥需求基本结束，在今年农业需求总量有需求前置的背景下，追肥需求的同比增速出现明显 下滑。此外，复合肥行业近期产 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - In the stage of supply - demand game, pulp prices are expected to follow the overall market atmosphere, showing a short - term volatile trend. Supply contraction expectations are strengthening. If international pulp mills implement their production cut plans and domestic small and medium - sized pulp enterprises cut production passively due to losses, the marginal tightening of the supply side may support price recovery. The demand side has structural improvements. During the peak season of downstream base paper, it is expected to drive the recovery of base paper demand. If macro - consumption stimulus policies are implemented, it may catalyze the start of the restocking cycle [80]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Industry News - As of August 7, 2025, the pulp inventories in Changshu Port, Qingdao Port, and Gaolan Port in China showed a destocking trend, with a combined reduction of 57,000 tons in the mainstream port samples, a 2.7% month - on - month decrease, and the inventory was at a low level for the year [6]. - Brazil's Suzano announced that from August 6, 2025, its commercial pulp production in the next 12 months would decrease by about 3.5% compared to its annual nominal capacity, equivalent to a reduction of about 400,000 - 500,000 tons, about 1% of the global demand for 40 million tons of hardwood pulp. It also announced a $20/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025 [6]. 3.2 Market Data 3.2.1 Basis and Spread - On August 8, 2025, the basis of Silver Star was 688 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.61% and a year - on - year increase of 28.36%. The basis of Russian Needle was 58 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 49.12% and a year - on - year decrease of 57.35%. The Silver Star - Russian Needle spread was 630 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 14.55% and a year - on - year increase of 57.50% [14]. - The 09 - 11 spread on August 8, 2025, decreased by 400.00% month - on - month, and the 11 - 01 spread decreased by 8.93% month - on - month [19]. 3.3 Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Price - The spread between Silver Star and Goldfish widened, while the spread between Russian Needle and Goldfish narrowed. On August 8, 2025, the Silver Star - Goldfish spread was 1,770 yuan/ton, a 2.31% month - on - month increase and a 73.53% year - on - year increase; the Russian Needle - Goldfish spread was 1,140 yuan/ton, a 3.39% month - on - month decrease and an 83.87% year - on - year increase [24][25]. - The import profits of both softwood and hardwood pulp decreased. On August 8, 2025, the import profit of softwood pulp (Silver Star) was - 37.64 yuan/ton, a 19.77% month - on - month increase and a 72.60% year - on - year increase; the import profit of hardwood pulp (Star) was - 13.08 yuan/ton, a 2848.53% month - on - month decrease and a 95.31% year - on - year increase [30][31]. - The price of imported softwood pulp declined, with the price of Russian Needle dropping. The price of imported hardwood pulp also decreased due to weak market demand. The prices of natural and chemimechanical pulp showed different trends [36][38][43]. 3.3.2 Supply - In June 2025, European port inventories increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the global pulp out - bound volume increased month - on - month [46][47]. - In June 2025, the pulp import volume showed a differentiated trend. The import volume of softwood pulp decreased by 6.07% month - on - month, while that of hardwood pulp increased by 10.96% month - on - month [50][51]. 3.3.3 Demand - The capacity utilization rates of different types of finished paper varied. The capacity utilization rate of white cardboard decreased, that of double - offset paper increased, that of copperplate paper decreased, and that of household tissue paper was relatively stable [53][54][55]. - The prices of finished paper showed different trends. The price of white cardboard decreased slightly, the price of household tissue paper was range - bound, the prices of double - offset paper and copperplate paper were stable [56][60][61]. - The profits of finished paper were recovering. On August 8, 2025, the profits of white cardboard, household tissue paper, double - offset paper, and copperplate paper were 242 yuan/ton, 182.8 yuan/ton, - 14.74 yuan/ton, and 613.5 yuan/ton respectively, with varying month - on - month and year - on - year changes [66]. 3.3.4 Inventory - As of August 8, 2025, the total inventory of the five major ports (Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, Tianjin, and Rizhao) was 2.048 million tons, a 2.71% month - on - month decrease and a 15.84% year - on - year increase. All ports showed a destocking trend [76][77].

Group 1: Core Views - Recent leveraged funds continue to flow in, with the total margin trading balance exceeding 2 trillion this week. The market sentiment remains optimistic, but the increase in the ratio of margin trading to market capitalization is limited. The 2 trillion mark has stronger signaling meaning than practical meaning and may trigger reverse trading, weakening risk appetite [2]. - Seven departments including the central bank jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for New - type Industrialization", creating credit demand for banks through monetary structured tools, supporting the manufacturing industry, and stimulating a rapid rebound in the banking sector [2]. - US employment data released last week plunged, increasing market bets on interest rate cuts. The US dollar index has continued to decline to around 98, and foreign capital has replenished A - share positions, supporting the sentiment in the mainland market after the A - share index correction [2]. - This week's total A - share trading volume slightly decreased compared to last week, with daily trading around 1.6 trillion. Most broad - based indices recovered last week's losses, with small - and medium - cap stocks remaining strong. The CSI 1000 rose more than 2%, and together with the CSI 2000 and micro - cap stock indices, reached new highs for the year. Large - cap broad - based indices rose slightly more than 1% this week [2]. - The downward support for basis has weakened, and the intraday structured divergence in trends among varieties has increased. The risk appetite shown in the futures market has declined, and there is a need to guard against the risk of a slowdown in the index's upward rate or even a continuous adjustment [2]. - As of Friday, the annualized basis of each variety was basically the same as last week, with the annualized discounts of IC and IM still around 10% and 11% respectively [2]. Group 2: Weekly Forecast - The model's judgment on the movement direction of the basis of IH, IF, IC, and IM next week is: strengthening, weakening, strengthening, and weakening respectively [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - In the stock index option market on August 8, 2025, there was a downward trend in volatility, and the positive skew declined. It is recommended to consider selling call options [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data Statistics - **Underlying Market Statistics**: The closing prices of major indices and ETFs generally declined. For example, the Shanghai Composite 50 Index closed at 2789.17, down 9.14 points; the CSI 300 Index closed at 4104.97, down 9.70 points. Trading volumes also decreased in most cases, such as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index with a trading volume of 38.92 billion hands, a decrease of 3.41 billion hands [2] - **Option Market Statistics**: Trading volumes of most option contracts decreased, while some open interest increased. For instance, the trading volume of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 29,318, a decrease of 3,056, and the open interest was 74,682, a decrease of 361 [2] - **Option Volatility Statistics**: The implied volatility (IV) of most options decreased, and the historical volatility (HV) showed different trends. For example, the ATM - IV of Shanghai Composite 50 Index options was 11.69%, a decrease of 0.06%, and the 20 - day HV was 6.72%, a decrease of 2.69% [5] 3.2 Option Analysis by Type - **Shanghai Composite 50 Index Options**: Analyzed through full - contract PCR, main - contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure charts [8][9] - **CSI 300 Index Options**: Similar analysis methods were used as the Shanghai Composite 50 Index options, including full - contract PCR, main - contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [12][13] - **CSI 1000 Index Options**: Analyzed using full - contract PCR, main - contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [15][16] - **ETF Options**: Options such as Shanghai Composite 50 ETF, Huatai - Baorui 300 ETF, and others were analyzed in terms of full - contract PCR, main - contract skew, volatility cone, and volatility term structure [19][20][24]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - As the number of refinery maintenance continues to decrease, the global fuel oil production has increased month - on - month. The export volume of high - sulfur fuel oil in the Middle East has rapidly recovered, and the global high - sulfur supply will gradually shift to a loose pattern. However, the significant decrease in Brazil's export volume has provided some support for the global low - sulfur market [7]. - In the bunker market, the spread between Bunker and FOB has widened again. The decrease in fuel oil imports and increase in exports in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may indicate that the power generation demand is gradually coming to an end. In China, fuel oil demand remains low, and the overall processing and bunker demand is weak [7]. - The fuel oil prices around the world have generally declined this month. In the first half of the month, the low - sulfur prices performed relatively strongly, and the low - sulfur cracking in Singapore, Fujairah and other places maintained an upward trend. However, there were obvious signs of weakness in low - sulfur fuel oil in the second half of the month. The increase in supply - side pressure in the near - term has led to a rapid decline in the paper - cargo monthly spreads of fuel oil in various regions [7]. - As previously predicted, with the fading of the impact of geopolitical risk events in June, the trading logic of the fuel oil market has returned to the fundamentals of supply and demand. The increase in refinery operations has led to a gradual recovery in fuel oil production, and the increasing supply pressure is the core factor leading to the decline in prices, cracking spreads, and monthly spreads. August is the turning point between the off - season and peak season of refined oil consumption in the Northern Hemisphere, which means that the seasonal demand benefits will continue to decline this month, further exerting downward pressure on fuel oil valuations [7]. - For high - sulfur fuel oil, the significant increase in Middle East exports is one of the biggest negative factors. Due to the abundance of spot goods, there were few transactions in the Platts window in August, and it is expected that the weakness of the spot market will continue to suppress prices. In addition to the Middle East, the large - scale maintenance of Russian refineries will end this month, and the export volume from Russia is expected to continue to rise at the end of the month. The entire high - sulfur market may gradually shift from supply - side looseness to a phase of oversupply [7]. - For low - sulfur fuel oil, although there has been no obvious increase in Brazil's exports, the export volumes of Kuwait and Indonesia are still rising, and the low - sulfur prices in the Asia - Pacific region have started to weaken month - on - month. In China, the production schedule of major refineries has continued to increase, and the bonded area has continued to accumulate inventory. The slow digestion of port spot goods has led to obvious weakness in the LU futures market. However, as the exports of major refineries increase, the remaining quota will gradually run out. Therefore, the quantity of the next batch of quotas will be a key focus in the future, which will determine the tightness of the deliverable resource supply for LU in the follow - up. Overall, it is believed that the cracking spreads and monthly spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil in August may continue to decline due to negative supply - side factors, and the weakness of low - sulfur fuel oil will also continue. Attention is recommended to the possibility of further narrowing of the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Global Fuel Oil Spot Prices and Spreads - **Price and Spread Fluctuations**: The FOB prices of fuel oil in various regions around the world generally declined this month. For example, the FOB price of 3.5% fuel oil in Singapore decreased by 2.29%, and the FOB price of 0.5% fuel oil decreased by 3.40%. The cracking spreads also showed different trends, with the high - sulfur cracking spreads in some regions increasing (e.g., Singapore's high - sulfur cracking spread increased by 16.41%), while the low - sulfur cracking spreads in some regions decreased (e.g., Singapore's low - sulfur cracking spread decreased by 2.00%) [9]. - **Regional Price Charts**: Provided historical price charts of fuel oil in different regions such as Asia - Pacific, Middle East, Northwest Europe, Mediterranean, and the United States, including FOB and CIF prices of different sulfur - content fuel oils [13][19][26][33]. - **Feedstock Market Prices**: Presented the FOB and CIF prices of VGO in the European and American markets, such as the FOB price of 0.5% - 0.6% VGO in Northwest Europe and the CIF price of 0.5% VGO barge in the US Gulf [39][43]. - **Bunker Prices in Asia - Pacific Ports**: Showed the bunker prices of high - sulfur, low - sulfur heavy - fuel oil, and marine diesel in major Asia - Pacific ports, including Singapore, Fujairah, Zhoushan, South Korea, etc. [49][52][56]. - **Regional Arbitrage and Grade Spreads**: Analyzed the regional arbitrage margins and grade spreads of fuel oil, such as the high - and low - sulfur spread in Singapore, the viscosity spread, and the arbitrage margins between different regions (e.g., Middle East - Singapore, Mediterranean - Singapore) [60]. - **Spot Premiums and Discounts**: Displayed the spot premiums and discounts in Asia - Pacific and Middle East regions, such as the 380CST transaction premiums and discounts in Singapore and the Arabian Gulf [63]. - **Cracking Spreads in Major Markets**: Presented the cracking spreads of fuel oil in major global markets, including Asia - Pacific, Middle East, Europe, and the United States [70][77]. - **Fuel Oil Swap Market Term Structure**: Analyzed the term structure of the fuel oil swap market, including the spreads between different contract months in Singapore and Northwest Europe for high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [83]. 3.2 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Supply Situation - **Refinery Operations**: Showed the refinery operation rates in different regions around the world, including Northeast Asia (Japan, South Korea, China), Middle East, South Asia, Latin America, Europe, and the United States. For example, the refinery operation rate in Japan, South Korea, and the capacity utilization rates of independent and major refineries in China [91][99][102]. - **Refinery Maintenance**: Presented the maintenance situation of global major refining units, including CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units [104]. - **Production Changes in Main Producing Countries**: Displayed the production changes of fuel oil in main producing countries around the world, such as China, India, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, Mexico, the United States, Brazil, and Russia [111][113][117]. 3.3 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Demand Situation - **Global Fuel Oil Demand Changes**: Showed the historical demand changes of fuel oil in different regions around the world, including China, the Middle East, Asia - Pacific, Latin America, the Commonwealth of Independent States, Europe, North America, and Africa [121]. - **Singapore Bunker Market Sales**: Presented the sales volume of fuel oil in the Singapore bunker market, including the sales volume of high - sulfur, low - sulfur fuel oil, and marine diesel [134]. 3.4 Global High - and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export Logistics Situation - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export**: Showed the weekly and monthly import and export volumes of high - sulfur fuel oil in different regions around the world, including China, the Middle East, the United States, Singapore + Malaysia, India, Northwest Europe, and the Mediterranean + Black Sea regions [143][146]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil Import and Export**: Presented the weekly and monthly import and export volumes of low - sulfur fuel oil in different regions around the world, including Singapore + Malaysia, China, the United States, the Mediterranean + Black Sea, Northwest Europe, and the Middle East regions [149][152]. 3.5 Global Main Region Fuel Oil Inventory and Floating Storage Situation - **Fuel Oil Spot Inventory**: Showed the historical inventory data of fuel oil in major regions around the world, including Singapore, Fujairah, the European ARA region, and the United States. This month, the inventory in Singapore decreased by 0.16%, Fujairah increased by 0.87%, the European ARA region decreased by 3.73%, and the United States decreased by 1.69% [157][159]. - **Floating Storage in Singapore**: Presented the floating storage situation of fuel oil in the Singapore region [164]. 3.6 Domestic Fuel Oil Market Supply and Consumption Situation - **Domestic Production and Supply**: Showed the monthly production volume of fuel oil in China, the capacity utilization rate of catalytic units in Shandong refineries, and the monthly commercial volume of fuel oil [169][170][173]. - **Bonded Port Supply, Consumption, and Inventory**: Presented the total inventory of bonded - area fuel oil, the monthly production volume of low - sulfur fuel oil from Chinese refineries, the port inventories of Dalian, Qingdao, and Zhoushan ports, and the monthly actual consumption volume of marine fuel oil in China [174][175].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trends of various futures on August 8, 2025. Index futures, gold, silver, industrial silicon, polycrystalline silicon, and lithium carbonate futures are expected to be strong or strongly volatile. Ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures are also expected to be strong. Copper and PTA futures are expected to fluctuate and consolidate. Aluminum, alumina, zinc, rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, glass, soda ash, crude oil, and PVC futures are expected to be weakly volatile [2][3][4][6]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro News and Trading Tips - China's unified policy of exempting preschool education fees for all kindergarten seniors in the fall semester of this year is expected to benefit about 12 million people, reducing family expenses by 20 billion yuan [7]. - S&P maintains China's sovereign credit rating at "A +" with a "stable" outlook. China's macro - policies will continue to strengthen in the second half of the year [7]. - In July, China's total goods trade imports and exports reached 3.91 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.7%. The total for the first seven months was 25.7 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.5% [7]. - The central bank will conduct 70 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations on August 8. Analysts believe that the central bank may continue the net investment model of outright reverse repurchases [8]. - As of the end of July, China's foreign exchange reserves were 329.22 billion US dollars, a decrease of 2.52 billion US dollars from the end of June. Gold reserves increased by 600,000 ounces [8]. - The Ministry of Justice and other departments will strengthen the governance of prominent problems in enterprise - related fines and increase supervision of government credit defaults [8]. - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Emergency Management have pre - allocated 430 million yuan in central natural disaster relief funds [9]. - In July, China's road freight price index was 105 points, a month - on - month decrease of 0.05% and a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The warehousing index was 50.1%, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month [9]. - Russia and the US have agreed in principle to hold a summit. The US has started the interview process for the new Fed chair [9][11]. - Trump has made a series of personnel and policy decisions, including replacing a Fed governor, urging the resignation of Intel's CEO, and signing an executive order on financial services [10][11]. - The Fed's Bostic believes a rate cut this year is appropriate. US initial and continuing jobless claims increased. India's Modi will not compromise on farmers' interests. The Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points. Japan downgraded its economic growth forecast. Germany's industrial output decreased significantly in June [11][12]. 2. Commodity Futures - related Information - On August 7, international precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures rose 1.44%, and COMEX silver futures rose 1.66%. US oil and Brent crude oil futures fell due to OPEC's production increase [12]. - London base metals mostly rose, but copper fell slightly. The on - shore RMB against the US dollar rose, and the US dollar index fell [13]. 3. Futures Market Analysis and Forecast Index Futures - On August 7, index futures showed different trends. On August 8, IF2509, IH2509, IC2509, and IM2509 are expected to be strongly volatile. For the whole of August 2025, these contracts are also expected to be strong or strongly volatile [14][15][16][18][19]. Treasury Bond Futures - On August 7, ten - year and thirty - year treasury bond futures rose slightly. On August 8, the ten - year treasury bond futures contract T2509 and the thirty - year contract TL2509 are expected to be strongly volatile [38][40][44]. Gold Futures - On August 7, the gold futures contract AU2510 rose slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile. On August 8, AU2510 is expected to be strongly volatile [44][45]. Silver Futures - On August 7, the silver futures contract AG2510 rose. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to be strongly and widely volatile. On August 8, AG2510 is expected to be strongly volatile [50][51]. Copper Futures - On August 7, the copper futures contract CU2509 rose slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, CU2509 is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [56]. Aluminum Futures - On August 7, the aluminum futures contract AL2509 rose slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, AL2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [62]. Alumina Futures - On August 7, the alumina futures contract AO2509 fell. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, AO2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [67]. Zinc Futures - On August 7, the zinc futures contract ZN2509 rose. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, ZN2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [71]. Industrial Silicon Futures - On August 7, the industrial silicon futures contract SI2511 showed a slight decline. On August 8, it is expected to be strongly volatile [75]. Polycrystalline Silicon Futures - On August 7, the polycrystalline silicon futures contract PS2511 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be strongly volatile [76]. Lithium Carbonate Futures - On August 7, the lithium carbonate futures contract LC2511 rose. On August 8, it is expected to be strongly volatile [79]. Rebar Futures - On August 7, the rebar futures contract RB2510 showed a slight decline. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, RB2510 is expected to be weakly volatile [82]. Hot - Rolled Coil Futures - On August 7, the hot - rolled coil futures contract HC2510 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [88][89]. Iron Ore Futures - On August 7, the iron ore futures contract I2509 fell slightly. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, I2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [90]. Coking Coal Futures - On August 7, the coking coal futures contract JM2601 rose. On August 8, it is expected to fluctuate widely and try to break through resistance levels [98][99]. Glass Futures - On August 7, the glass futures contract FG509 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [99]. Soda Ash Futures - On August 7, the soda ash futures contract SA601 fell. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [101]. Crude Oil Futures - On August 7, the crude oil futures contract SC2509 fell. In August 2025, the main continuous contract is expected to fluctuate widely. On August 8, SC2509 is expected to be weakly volatile [103]. PTA Futures - On August 7, the PTA futures contract TA509 fell. On August 8, it is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [109][110]. PVC Futures - On August 7, the PVC futures contract V2509 showed a slight decline. On August 8, it is expected to be weakly volatile [111].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Non-farm payroll data weakened [2] - Silver: Made a slight rebound [2] - Copper: The decline of the US dollar supported the price [2] - Zinc: Traded in a range [2] - Lead: The increase in LME cancelled warrants supported the price [2] - Tin: Traded in a range [2] - Aluminum: Prices were under pressure [2] - Alumina: Oscillated and declined [2] - Cast aluminum alloy: Followed the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2] - Nickel: The tug - of - war between bulls and bears intensified, and nickel prices oscillated narrowly [2] - Stainless steel: The reality of supply elasticity and macro - expectations were in a game, and steel prices oscillated [2] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Fundamentals**: For gold, prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all rose, with daily increases of 0.17%, 0.36%, and 1.48% respectively. For silver, prices of Shanghai Silver 2510, Silver T + D, and Comex Silver 2510 also increased, with daily increases of 0.84%, 0.84%, and 1.57% respectively. ETF holdings and inventories showed certain changes. For example, SPDR Gold ETF holdings increased by 6, and Comex Gold inventories decreased by 121,016 (in ounces) [5]. - **Trend Intensity**: Gold and silver both had a trend intensity of 1, indicating a relatively weak bullish trend [8]. Copper - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 78,460, with a daily increase of 0.23%. LME copper 3M electronic trading price decreased slightly. Trading volumes and open interests of both Shanghai and LME copper decreased. Copper inventories in Shanghai and LME also declined, and the cancellation warrant ratio of LME copper increased slightly [10]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump signed an executive order allowing 401K accounts to invest in cryptocurrencies and private funds. Chile's Codelco suspended the operation of the El Teniente copper mine. China's imports of unwrought copper and copper products in July 2025 increased [10][12]. - **Trend Intensity**: Copper had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [12]. Zinc - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22,580, with a daily increase of 0.89%. The LME zinc 3M electronic trading price increased by 1.64%. Trading volumes and open interests of both Shanghai and LME zinc increased. Inventories of Shanghai and LME zinc decreased [13]. - **News**: Fed Governor Waller was regarded as one of the top candidates for the next Fed Chair by the Trump team [14]. - **Trend Intensity**: Zinc had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [15]. Lead - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 16,875, with a daily increase of 0.12%. The LME lead 3M electronic trading price increased by 1.09%. Trading volumes of Shanghai lead decreased, while those of LME lead increased. LME lead cancelled warrants increased by 6,275 tons [16]. - **News**: Trump signed an executive order allowing 401K accounts to invest in alternative investments. Modi responded strongly to a 50% tariff [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: Lead had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [16]. Tin - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 267,940, with a daily increase of 0.37%. The LME tin 3M electronic trading price increased by 1.82%. Shanghai tin inventories decreased by 26 tons, and LME tin inventories increased by 15 tons [19]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Trump nominated Stephen Miran as a Fed governor. The US weekly continuing jobless claims reached the highest level since the end of 2021. China's exports and imports in July increased, and its foreign exchange reserves decreased [19]. - **Trend Intensity**: Tin had a trend intensity of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish trend [23]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Fundamentals**: The price of electrolytic aluminum was under pressure, alumina oscillated and declined, and cast aluminum alloy followed electrolytic aluminum. For electrolytic aluminum, the closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,750. For alumina, the closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 3,211. For cast aluminum alloy, the closing price of the main contract was 20,135 [24]. - **News**: The 39% US tariff on Swiss products took effect, and the Bank of England cut interest rates by 25 basis points [26]. - **Trend Intensity**: Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy all had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [26]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,850, and that of the stainless - steel main contract was 13,000. Prices of various nickel - related products and stainless - steel products showed certain changes [28]. - **Macroeconomic and Industry News**: Canada's Ontario Province might stop exporting nickel to the US. An Indonesian nickel - iron project entered the trial production stage. Environmental violations were found in an Indonesian industrial park [28][29]. - **Trend Intensity**: Nickel and stainless steel both had a trend intensity of 0, indicating a neutral trend [32].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information provided regarding the overall industry investment ratings in the report. Core Views - Trump and Putin may meet soon, which reduces the possibility of Trump imposing additional tariffs on Russia, and there is a glimmer of hope for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war, but a quick cease - fire is not expected [8]. - For polysilicon, it is still in a policy - driven market. Short - term trading logic is more related to policy information, with a general strategy of buying on dips. There may be opportunities for inter - month reverse arbitrage, and investors are advised to control risks [9][10]. - For caustic soda, the valuation is at a low level. The peak - season contracts should be treated bullishly. Although it is currently in a weak situation, the cost support is strong, and the peak - season demand is expected to drive the price up [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Pre - market Highlights - **Polysilicon**: Still in a policy - driven market, short - term price affected by acquisition policy progress. Upstream inventory increased, prices in the industrial chain are not smoothly transmitted. Focus on policy - related sentiment disturbances, with a long - buying strategy on dips and potential inter - month reverse arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Valuation is low. Current decline is due to high production, off - season demand, and export price negotiation. Cost support is strong, and peak - season demand, especially from alumina production in Guangxi, is expected to drive up the price. Do not short at the current low valuation [11]. Commodity Research Morning Report - **Precious Metals**: Gold is affected by weak non - farm payrolls data, and silver shows a slight rebound. The trends of both are relatively mild [15][19]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price. There are various macro and industry news, such as Trump's administrative order and trade - related issues. The trend strength is neutral [15][24]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within a certain interval. The trend strength is neutral [15][27]. - **Lead**: The increase in LME cancelled warrants supports the price. The trend strength is neutral [15][30]. - **Tin**: Ranges within a certain interval. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][33]. - **Aluminum**: The price is under pressure. Alumina oscillates downward, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend strengths of all are neutral [15][38]. - **Nickel**: The multi - and short - side game intensifies, and the price oscillates narrowly. The trend strength is neutral [15][40]. - **Stainless Steel**: The supply elasticity and macro expectations are in a game, and the price oscillates. The trend strength is neutral [15][41]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: - **Carbonate Lithium**: The weekly production increase leads to inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the fermentation of the mining license renewal event. The trend strength is slightly bullish [15][46]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory is being depleted. Attention should be paid to market sentiment. The trend strength is neutral [15][50]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the fermentation of market information. The trend strength is slightly bullish [15][50]. - **Iron Ore**: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][53]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both show a relatively strong oscillation trend. The trend strengths are neutral [15][56]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly. The trend strength is neutral [15][60]. - **Para - Xylene**: Supply - demand pressure increases, and the trend is weak. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][66]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is at a low level. Attention should be paid to unplanned production cuts. The trend strength is slightly bearish [15][66]. - **MEG**: A strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA/PX is recommended. The trend strength is neutral [15][66]. - **Agricultural Products**: - **Palm Oil**: Due to repeated macro - market sentiment, a strategy of going long at low levels is recommended [15][17]. - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level. Attention should be paid to the China - US trade agreement [15][17]. - **Soybean Meal**: Exports are good, and US soybeans have risen. Dalian soybean meal may follow the upward trend [15][17]. - **Corn**: Runs weakly [15][17]. - **Sugar**: Is in an oscillation period [15][17]. - **Cotton**: Oscillates narrowly [15][17]. - **Egg**: The spot price shows a rebound sentiment [15][17]. - **Live Pig**: The trading volume is poor, and a reverse arbitrage strategy is maintained [15][17]. - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the weather in the producing areas [15][17].