铁矿石周度观点 国泰君安期货研究所 张广硕（分析师） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 日期：2025年8月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 铁矿观点：碳元素再度吸收钢铁链利润，矿价窄幅震荡 | | 最近一周切片数据 条目 | 当周值 | 环比 | 同比 | | YTD累计发运数据 31W2025 | 31W2024 | 累计同比 | 累计同比% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 全球发货量 澳发货量 | 3061.8 1721.2 | -139.1 -72.3 | -7.2 -89.0 | 全球发货 | 93740.7 | 93365.8 | 374.9 | 0.4% | | | | | | | 澳发货 | 54562.6 | 55061.7 | -499.1 | -0.9% | | | 巴发货量 | 742.7 | -141.6 | 17.0 | 巴发货 | 22390.5 | 22433.5 | - ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate within a narrow range. The support logic at the ore end is weakening, and the smelting logic restricts the price elasticity. The global refined nickel inventory is gradually increasing, which puts downward pressure on nickel prices. In the short term, it is difficult for nickel prices to drop significantly, but there is also an upper limit. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, which slightly boosts the upside space of nickel prices, but the increase is limited. The fundamentals lack obvious contradictions, and the price movement is mainly influenced by the macro - sentiment of the sector. There are also some uncertainties in the news, such as Indonesia's possible adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and the APNI's proposal to re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula [1]. - In the stainless - steel market, the tug - of - war between bulls and bears is intensifying, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate. The bulls focus on the decline in high - level inventories and potential supply - side production cuts, while the bears are concerned about the actual supply - demand situation, such as the profit from warehousing and the still - high inventory levels. Overall, steel prices are likely to move in a volatile manner [2]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Nickel and Stainless - Steel Fundamentals - **Nickel fundamentals**: The support from the ore end has weakened, and the smelting logic restricts price fluctuations. The global refined nickel inventory is gradually rising, which suppresses nickel prices. In the short term, it's hard for nickel prices to fall sharply, but there is an upper ceiling. The inventory at the ferronickel link has slightly decreased, slightly boosting the upside potential of nickel prices, but the increase is limited. The news about Indonesia's possible adjustment of the RKAB approval cycle and the APNI's proposal to re - evaluate the nickel ore HPM formula adds uncertainties [1]. - **Stainless - steel fundamentals**: The bulls are concerned about the decline in high - level inventories and potential supply - side production cuts, such as the maintenance of a Shandong steel mill and the phased production cuts in Guangxi. The bears focus on the actual supply - demand situation, including the profit from warehousing and the still - high inventory levels. Overall, steel prices are expected to fluctuate [2]. Inventory Changes - China's refined nickel social inventory decreased by 536 tons to 38,578 tons, with warehouse receipt inventory down 573 tons to 21,374 tons, spot inventory up 437 tons to 12,014 tons, and bonded area inventory down 400 tons to 5,190 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 5,160 tons to 209,082 tons [3][4]. - The ferronickel inventory at the end of July was 33,415 tons, a 10% decrease month - on - month but a 56% increase year - on - year. The inventory pressure is still relatively high but has slightly eased [5]. - As of August 7, 2025, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,106,304 tons, a 0.44% decrease week - on - week. Cold - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 622,713 tons, a 0.69% decrease week - on - week, and hot - rolled stainless - steel inventory was 483,591 tons, a 0.11% decrease week - on - week [5]. - The nickel ore inventory at 14 ports in China increased by 389,800 wet tons to 10,333,400 wet tons, with Philippine nickel ore accounting for 10,092,000 wet tons. By grade, low - nickel and high - iron ore was 5,400,000 wet tons, and medium - and high - grade nickel ore was 4,933,400 wet tons [5]. Market News - In March, Ontario's Premier Ford threatened to stop exporting nickel to the US in response to US tariff threats [6]. - In April, the Indonesian CNI nickel - iron RKEF Phase I project, EPC - contracted by China ENFI, successfully produced nickel - iron and entered the trial - production stage, with an annual production of about 12,500 tons of nickel metal per line [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the IMIP in Indonesia, and the relevant department may fine the confirmed illegal companies and audit the entire industrial park [6]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three years to one year to improve industry governance and better control coal and ore supplies [6]. - The approved 2025 RKAB production of Indonesian nickel - ore miners is 364 million tons, higher than the 2024 target of 319 million tons [7]. - Two Indonesian ferronickel smelting industrial parks have suspended the production of all EF production lines due to long - term losses, which is expected to affect the monthly ferronickel production by about 1,900 metal tons [7]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 RKAB starting from October 2025 [7]. - Due to capacity restrictions, a Shandong steel mill has started maintenance and will reduce the supply of hot - rolled coils, suspending the delivery obligations under long - term supply agreements signed in August [8]. Weekly Key Data Tracking of Nickel and Stainless Steel - The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,180, down 670 compared to T - 1, up 1,410 compared to T - 5, down 3,180 compared to T - 10, up 2,040 compared to T - 22, and down 2,450 compared to T - 66 [9]. - The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,985, down 15 compared to T - 1, up 145 compared to T - 5, down 45 compared to T - 10, up 215 compared to T - 22, and up 280 compared to T - 66 [9]. - Other data such as trading volume, import prices, and spreads are also presented in the table, showing the price changes and market conditions of nickel and stainless - steel - related products over different time periods [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The demand improvement for zinc is limited, and the price shows a volatile performance. The strength - weakness analysis is neutral [2]. - The inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The galvanizing start - up rate has a marginal increase [3][4]. - On the supply side, the supply is increasing. With the increase in zinc concentrate, the inventory of zinc concentrate in smelters and ports is relatively abundant, and the smelter profit is at a historical median. The supply pressure has increased, and the excess logic is gradually reflected in the social inventory accumulation. On the consumption side, it is still in the off - season, with insufficient new orders. Although there is some resilience in rigid demand, the demand improvement is very limited, and the industry start - up rate has little room to rise without more favorable policies. In the short term, the zinc price shows a volatile performance due to factors such as the increase in the inventory accumulation slope, the fading of domestic macro - sentiment, and the expectation of strong supply and weak demand in August. In the medium - to - long term, the strategy of shorting on rallies is recommended. For the internal - external strategy, Shanghai zinc may be relatively weaker during the period of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the domestic off - season, and the positive spread positions within the short - to - medium - term (within a quarter) can be continued to hold [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Performance**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc main contract last week was 22,515, with a weekly increase of 0.87%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 22,555, with a night - session increase of 0.18%. The closing price of LmeS - zinc3 last week was 2834, with a weekly increase of 3.83% [7]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest Changes**: The trading volume of Shanghai zinc main contract last Friday was 81,428, a decrease of 23,693 compared with the previous week. The open interest was 94,895, a decrease of 13,189 compared with the previous week. The trading volume of LmeS - zinc3 was 8402, a decrease of 5705 compared with the previous week, and the open interest was 193,958, an increase of 4615 compared with the previous week [7]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The LME zinc premium changed from - 10.96 to - 0.23, an increase of 10.73. The bonded - area zinc premium changed from - 30 to 140, an increase of 170. The spot premium of Shanghai 0 zinc changed from 0 to - 35, a decrease of 35, etc. [7]. 3.2 Industry Chain Vertical and Horizontal Comparison - **Inventory**: Zinc ore and smelter finished product inventories have risen to high levels, and the visible inventory of zinc ingots has increased [9]. - **Profit**: Zinc ore profits are at the forefront of the industry chain, and smelting profits are relatively good. Mine enterprise profits are stable in the short term and at a historical median. Smelting profits are also stable and at a historical median. Galvanized pipe enterprise profits are stable but at a medium - to - low level in the same period [11][12]. - **Start - up Rate**: The zinc concentrate start - up rate has increased and is at a median level in the same period in history. The refined zinc start - up rate has declined but is at a high level in the same period in history. The downstream galvanizing start - up rate has increased, while the die - casting zinc start - up rate has decreased, and both are at a medium - to - low level in history [13][14]. 3.3 Trading Aspects - **Spot**: The spot premium has a slight decline. Overseas premiums are relatively stable, with a slight decrease in Antwerp, and the LME CASH - 3M structure has an obvious change [17][23]. - **Price Difference**: The near - end of Shanghai zinc shows a C structure, and the far - end structure is gradually moving out of the back structure [25]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at a low level shows a stable and rising trend, and the inventory accumulation is becoming more obvious. The open interest - to - inventory ratio continues to decline. The LME inventory is mainly concentrated in the Singapore area, with a short - term slight decrease and at a median level in the same period in history. The bonded - area inventory is stable, and the total global visible zinc inventory has a slight decline [31][36][39]. - **Futures**: The domestic open interest is at a median level in the same period in history [40]. 3.4 Supply - **Zinc Concentrate**: The import of zinc concentrate has declined. The domestic zinc ore production is at a median level in history. The recovery rate of processing fees for domestic and imported ores has slowed down. The zinc ore arrival volume is at a median level, and the smelter raw material inventory is abundant and at a high level in the same period in history [43][44]. - **Refined Zinc**: The smelting output has a marginal recovery. The smelter finished product inventory is at a medium - to - high level in the same period in history, and the zinc alloy output is at a high level. The refined zinc import volume is at a historical median [45][48]. 3.5 Zinc Demand - The refined zinc consumption growth rate is positive. The downstream monthly start - up rate has a slight decline, and most are at a medium - to - low level in the same period in history [54][57]. - The real estate is still at a low level, while the power grid shows a structural increase [69]. 3.6 Overseas Factors - The European Continental benchmark Dutch natural gas futures price and the ICE EU carbon quota main contract price are presented, which may affect the zinc market through factors such as energy costs and production costs [71][72].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The logic of lead smelting production cuts is gradually emerging, and the price bottom is rising. The strength analysis is neutral, and the price range is 16,600 - 17,000 yuan/ton [3] - Domestic lead supply pressure is gradually emerging, but the consumption of lead-acid batteries has not improved, and the price is expected to show an overall shock. The supply side is more rigid and has a longer time cycle for price influence, so the price bottom support is still strong. It is recommended to buy on dips, and there are still opportunities for positive arbitrage in spot-futures of Shanghai lead [8] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Trading Aspects - **Price and Spread**: The closing price of Shanghai lead main contract last week was 16,845 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 0.66%. The closing price of the night session yesterday was 16,870 yuan/ton, with a night session increase of 0.15%. The LME lead 3-month closing price last week was 2,023 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.48%. The LME lead premium has changed, and the Shanghai 1 lead spot premium has decreased [9] - **Inventory**: Domestic lead total inventory has shown a marginal decline, from 73,000 tons on July 31st to 71,100 tons on August 7th. Various lead inventories such as Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory, total inventory, and social inventory have also changed [6][8][9] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume and open interest of Shanghai lead main contract and LME lead 3-month contract have changed compared with the previous week [9] Lead Supply - **Lead Concentrate**: China's lead concentrate production, import volume, consumption, and inventory have shown different trends over the years. The profit of lead concentrate and the treatment charge (TC) have also changed [30][32] - **Primary Lead and Recycled Lead**: The production and operating rates of primary lead and recycled lead have changed over the years. The recycled lead has been in a loss state, and some enterprises will start to cut production [8][36][37] - **By-products**: The prices of primary lead by-products such as silver and sulfuric acid have changed over the years [39] - **Waste Batteries and Recycled Lead**: The raw material inventory, price, cost, and profit of recycled lead smelting enterprises have changed over the years [43][44][45][46] - **Import and Export**: The net import, import volume, and export volume of refined lead have changed over the years, and the import profit and loss have also changed [47] Lead Demand - **Lead-Acid Batteries**: The operating rate, finished product inventory days, and export volume of lead-acid battery enterprises have changed over the years [50] - **Terminal Consumption**: The actual consumption of lead, automobile production, and motorcycle production have changed over the years [52]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views Glass - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, and the market will gradually enter a weak oscillation state. The medium - term decline is not over. The previous policy proposals such as anti - involution and anti - deflation and the peak - season expectation led to a rebound, but currently, factors like weak basis, delivery, and high inventory cause the market to fall back. The large premium of the forward 01 contract means short - selling should be cautious in the short term [2]. 纯碱 - Short - term short - selling should be cautious, but the downward pressure remains. In the futures market, the previous over - crowded short positions led to a short - covering rally. The rising futures price drove spot purchases, but currently, the strengthening basis in the short - term decline is not conducive to the futures price. The 08 and 09 contracts may face large delivery pressure. If the supply remains high, the market will face significant pressure [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Glass - Supply - As of August 7, 2025, there are 296 glass production lines (200,000 tons/day) after excluding zombie lines, with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The daily output of float glass is 159,600 tons, unchanged from July 31. The daily loss of float glass on August 7 is 40,450 tons, unchanged from the previous period, and the weekly loss is 283,150 tons, a 0.63% decrease from the previous week [2]. - In 2025, the total daily melting volume of cold - repaired lines is 11,680 tons/day, the total daily melting volume of ignited lines is 12,110 tons/day, the potential new ignition lines have a total daily melting volume of 14,000 tons/day, the potential old - line复产 has a total daily melting volume of 8,130 tons, and the potential cold - repair lines have a total daily melting volume of 6,900 tons/day [6][7][8]. - The current in - production capacity is about 159,000 tons/day. The short - term production reduction space is limited, but if demand is poor in the third quarter, there may be a certain - scale production reduction in the fourth quarter [13]. Glass - Price and Profit - The market price has slightly declined this week. The price in Shahe is about 1,180 - 1,200 yuan/ton (down 80 - 100 yuan/ton), in Hubei, Central China, it is about 1,160 - 1,200 yuan/ton (down 80 - 100 yuan/ton), and in some large factories in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region of East China, it is about 1,280 - 1,320 yuan/ton (down 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [16][20]. - The futures price has rebounded, the basis has strengthened, and the monthly spread remains weak. The profit of using petroleum coke as fuel is about 130 yuan/ton, and the profits of using natural gas and coal as fuel are about - 150 yuan/ton and 111 yuan/ton respectively [22][25]. Glass - Inventory and Downstream开工 - Recently, the transaction volume has significantly declined. The inventory in various regions has increased due to the decrease in spot transactions and market prices. The regional price difference tends to widen, with greater price cuts in Central China and Shahe and smaller cuts in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region [32][36]. Photovoltaic Glass - Price and Profit - The overall domestic photovoltaic glass market has good transactions, and the inventory has been decreasing. The mainstream order price of 2.0mm coated panels is 10.5 - 11 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% increase from the previous week; the mainstream order price of 3.2mm coated panels is 18.5 - 19 yuan/square meter, a 1.35% increase from the previous week [42][44]. Photovoltaic Glass - Capacity and Inventory - Recently, there has been a supply reduction, better trading, and a decline in inventory. There are 408 photovoltaic glass production lines in operation, with a total daily melting volume of 89,290 tons/day, unchanged from the previous period. The sample inventory days are about 26.93 days, an 8.13% decrease from the previous week [45][46][50]. 纯碱 - Supply and Maintenance - Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and the operating rate has increased. The production capacity utilization rate of soda ash is 85.4%, up from 80.2% last week. The current weekly output of heavy soda ash is 423,000 tons/week. In the context of high production and high inventory, either manufacturers should increase production cuts, or the real - estate industry chain should recover to drive the recovery of glass demand [55][57]. 纯碱 - Price and Profit - The market quotation has been lowered, and the quotation reduction of traders is greater than that of manufacturers. The nominal price in Shahe and Hubei is about 1,250 - 1,300 yuan/ton. The high production and high inventory put pressure on near - month contracts, but during the peak position - shifting period, the market may gradually turn to positive spreads [70][73][75]. - The profit of the joint - soda method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 68 yuan/ton, and the profit of the ammonia - soda method in North China is 56 yuan/ton [79].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for bottle chips (PR) is "sideways with a downward bias" [5] - The investment rating for staple fiber (PF) is "sideways in the short - term with limited downside" [8] 2. Core Views of the Report For Bottle Chips (PR) - In the short - term, the downside is limited and there may be a stabilization and rebound, but medium - term pressure is obvious. The reduction in production by factories this round is less than in previous years, leading to a slow feedback from the demand side. However, after the absolute price decline, there is a lot of short - covering or speculative demand in the market. The domestic downstream demand is at a high level year - on - year and month - on - month, and the export has recovered for some factories' product pick - up schedules. The unilateral price may bottom out and rebound in the short - term, but it is a rebound rather than a reversal. There will be inventory reduction from July to August, and after the end of the production cut, the increase in production and the demand pressure from September to October will gradually emerge, showing a downward trend. But before the end of the peak season, attention should be paid to the possibility of a stronger basis if there are sudden fluctuations on the supply side when the downstream inventory is low [10] For Staple Fiber (PF) - It is sideways with a downward bias in the short - term but with limited downside. The downstream start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded, and both domestic and foreign demand are expected to improve in mid - to late August. The profit of staple fiber factories is still around the cash - flow cost, and the inventory is at a neutral level. In addition, a large - scale reduction in PTA production may support the prices of polyester downstream products. In the new round of US tariff negotiations, the tariff range has eased compared to April. After the tariffs are implemented, there may be a new round of foreign trade orders in the short - term. In the medium - to long - term, tariffs will still affect exports and re - exports. In the future, there is limited room for further increasing the start - up rate of staple fiber, and as the peak demand season approaches, the processing fee is expected to expand [8] 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Bottle Chips (PR) Valuation and Profit - The polymerization cost has declined, with this week's polymerization cost at around 5480 - 5550 yuan/ton. The spot processing fee of bottle chips has continued to recover, at around 400 - 450 yuan/ton. The export profit is oscillating weakly, and calculated based on the domestic polymerization cost, it is about 700 - 800 yuan/ton (reflecting a relatively high level of export profit), and the domestic - foreign price difference has narrowed [50] Fundamental Operating Conditions - **Supply**: After this round of production cuts, the processing fee has not risen above the factory cost. Factories are expected to maintain the current production cut until the end of August, and gradually resume production in September but may still maintain a partial production cut scale. This week, the operating rate of bottle chips was 79%. The impact of "anti - involution" on bottle chips is mainly a possible increase in costs (such as MEG), and there are few old bottle - chip devices, so the supply impact is small [9] - **Demand**: The domestic downstream start - up rate remains at a high level, and downstream enterprises maintain a restocking rhythm when prices are low. Since May, downstream enterprises have rarely made large - scale purchases due to rising absolute prices. If the absolute price drops, it is expected that the buying sentiment will be good. At the same time, the ocean freight has declined, reducing the impact on exports from July to August. Overall, bottle chips are in a pattern of slight inventory reduction from July to August. This week, the factory inventory was around 17 days, a month - on - month decrease [10] - **Price and Spread**: This week, the price dropped slightly to 5920 - 5950 yuan/ton; the FOB price was 770 - 795 US dollars/ton. The bottle chip - PVC spread has been at a high level of 1000 - 1500 yuan/ton since 2024, with a low driving force for further substitution. The bottle chips maintain a high - level price difference with general plastics such as PP, showing obvious cost - effectiveness, and the substitution in the packaging field continues [28][31][32] - **Raw Material End**: There are new device overhauls for PTA. The total inventory of PTA has shown certain changes, and the PTA load index has also fluctuated. For MEG, the port inventory in East China and the load have also changed, and the ocean freight has declined, reducing the impact on exports [43][47] - **Inventory**: The overall PTA inventory of polyester factories has decreased. The domestic polyester bottle - chip factory inventory has dropped to 17 days (CCF caliber). There will be inventory reduction in the social inventory from July to August. According to CCF data, the social inventory at the end of June was finally counted at 3.07 million tons, estimated to be revised to 3 million tons at the end of July, and estimated to be revised to 2.83 million tons at the end of August [55][60] - **Device Changes**: In August, major polyester bottle - chip factories will continue the production cut of 20% or more that started in July, with no plan to increase or restart for the time being. Some are expected to restart in September. In the future, Fuhai plans to put into production 300,000 - ton devices in September and November respectively. Wuliangye's 100,000 - ton project is planned to be put into production at the end of this year or early next year, but it is expected to mainly produce modified products and RPET [61] - **Demand**: This week, the overall downstream start - up rate changed little. The device load of beverage enterprises increased to 95 - 100%. The average start - up rate of edible oil enterprises remained around 70 - 80%. In the sheet material sector, it was around 60 - 80% in East China and 40 - 60% in South China. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft drink production was 3.0%; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of beverage product retail sales was 0.6%. The demand for edible oil remains neutral, and the demand for sheet materials is average, but the supermarket consumption has improved month - on - month [64][70][73] - **Global Trade Flow**: Overseas bottle - chip production capacity has increased little in recent years, and the small increase is mainly concentrated in Southeast Asia and the Indian sub - continent. There are also bottlenecks in cost and supply volume for the "bottle - to - bottle" RPET in Europe and the US to replace virgin bottle chips. Overseas downstream demand growth will increasingly rely on imports to achieve supply - demand balance. The main trade flows of Chinese bottle - chip exports are: China - Southeast Asia - South Asia; China - Central Asia, Russia, and Eastern Europe; China - South Korea, Mexico, the Middle East for re - export to North America; China - Africa and South America [80] Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From July to August, it is in a tight - balance state, and inventory will accumulate again after September. Supply - side assumptions: After the large - scale production cut, the processing fee has not recovered well, and the production cut may last until the end of August, and the concentrated production - cut capacity will resume in September; Fuhai's new device will be put into production in September. Demand assumptions: The downstream demand is calculated based on a 5% year - on - year increase compared to last year's peak season; the export demand may be affected month - on - month from June to July due to ocean freight issues, and it will recover starting from August. Recently, the ocean freight has declined, and the impact on exports in July may be less than expected, so there may also be a slight inventory reduction in July [95][97] Staple Fiber (PF) Valuation - Spot prices fluctuate less, the futures market is weak, and the basis has strengthened slightly. The processing fee on the futures market is still weak [101][106] Fundamental Operating Conditions - **Supply**: Based on the fact that the processing fee and inventory pressure are not large, factories maintain a high start - up rate. This week, the average start - up rate of factories was 90.6%, and the start - up rate of direct - spun polyester staple fiber for spinning was 95.3%. It is expected to remain stable or increase slightly in the future. The impact of "anti - involution" on staple fiber is mainly a possible increase in costs (such as MEG). Although there are many old staple - fiber devices, some have undergone boiler renovations, and the absolute value of the cost difference between new and old devices is small. The production enterprises are mainly private, and the start - up still mainly considers economic efficiency [8] - **Demand**: The start - up rate of terminal weaving has bottomed out and rebounded, but the short - term demand is still weak. There is restocking at low prices downstream, and the staple - fiber inventory has slightly accumulated. This week, the 1.4D equity inventory was 10.6 days, and the physical inventory was 23 days. The US has issued a new round of reciprocal tariffs, and at the same time, China and the US are conducting a new round of trade negotiations. The tax rates in textile and clothing transit areas such as Southeast Asia are mainly around 20%. Re - export restrictions may also be part of the negotiations. China and the US are promoting a 10% tariff extension in the short - term. After the tariffs are gradually implemented in August, there may be a round of foreign trade orders. Domestic and foreign demand is expected to improve in mid - to late August [8] - **Inventory**: Downstream has impulse restocking. The FDY inventory pressure is relatively large, while the inventory of other varieties is neutral [117] - **Profit**: With the decline in costs, most profits have recovered, but polyester chips are still in the red [125] - **Downstream**: The inventory pressure of polyester yarn is relatively large, and the start - up rate has bottomed out. The terminal restocks, and the yarn price drops slightly. The profit of polyester yarn is generally better than last year, especially for polyester - cotton yarn. The substitution of virgin products for recycled products continues [133][135][137] - **Weaving Start - up**: The terminal start - up rate has bottomed out and rebounded [146][149]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Pure benzene is short - term strong, while the fundamentals of styrene remain weak. In the second half of the year, with limited domestic demand growth, the downstream hard - rubber segment has limited incremental demand. However, in the short term, the structure of pure benzene has strengthened rapidly, and during the interval between the commissioning of downstream styrene plants and the slow release of new pure benzene plant production, pure benzene has strengthened periodically. Attention should be paid to the position of compressing styrene profits [3]. - According to the crude oil valuation of $65, the reasonable valuation of the BZ2603 contract is 5800 - 5900 yuan/ton. With Brent crude oil rising to $67 and $70, the reasonable valuation of BZ2603 is 6100 - 6300 yuan/ton. The reasonable processing fee for styrene is 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Pure benzene domestic production**: In July, the planned maintenance loss was about 100,000 tons (Fuhai, Fuhai Chuang, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Tianjin Petrochemical), and in August, it dropped to 40,000 tons. Pay attention to the commissioning of CNOOC Daxie on July 18 and the new plants such as Yulong Petrochemical (reforming + disproportionation), Jilin Petrochemical, Jingbo, and Hunan Petrochemical in August [3]. - **Pure benzene imports**: The US has imposed continuous tariffs on overseas, and the downstream plants in the US have restarted, leading to a stable rebound in the US pure benzene price. The refinery's operating rate has increased during the peak summer gasoline season, but the yield has been decreasing since July due to poor pure benzene economics. The profit of the STDP unit is negative. The profit of US styrene has been squeezed from a high level, but the operating rate has recovered from 50% in June to nearly 65% - 70% in July. The cracking profit in the European market is poor, and the load is expected to be reduced. The spot volume of pure benzene in Europe is limited, and factories are actively destocking and increasing contract volumes. About 30,000 tons of pure benzene were shipped from Europe to the US from May to June, and Europe imported more than 100,000 tons of styrene in June. The US - to - Europe EB window is currently closed from July to August. European downstream plants are planning a 2 - 3 - week seasonal maintenance in August. Pay attention to the opening of the pure benzene Europe/South Korea - to - US and styrene US - to - Europe windows [3]. - **Styrene**: Recently, there has been a significant increase in supply. Liaoning Baolai's 350,000 - ton plant has restarted, and new plants such as Jingbo Petrochemical's 680,000 - ton (August) and Jilin Petrochemical's 600,000 - ton (September) are about to be commissioned [3]. - **Caprolactam**: Hengyi's 300,000 - ton new plant in Qinzhou, Guangxi is planned to be commissioned from August to September [3]. 3.2 Demand - **Phenol**: The maintenance of Yangzhou Shiyou and Jiangsu Yangnong is about to end. New plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Jilin Petrochemical's 200,000 - ton will be commissioned from July to August, and Shandong Ruilin plans to be commissioned in October [3]. - **Aniline**: Jinmao Aluminum, Shandong Huatai, and Jiangsu Fuqiang have recently restarted. Wanhua Chemical's (Fujian) new plant has been commissioned and is currently operating at a low load. Yantai Wanhua plans a rotation maintenance from August to September [3]. - **Styrene downstream 3S hard rubber**: EPS and PS have clearly entered the summer off - season, with continuous inventory accumulation and reduced operating rates. EPS has significantly reduced its load. The overall demand for ABS remains medium - to - high and shows resilience [3]. 3.3 Futures Contract - **Pure benzene futures contract rules**: The trading unit is 30 tons/hand, the minimum price change is 1 yuan/ton, the daily price limit is 4% of the previous trading day's settlement price, etc. The initial trading margin standard is 8%, and the daily price limit is ±7%; on the listing day, it is ±14% of the listing benchmark price. The listing benchmark prices of BZ2603, BZ2604, BZ2605, and BZ2606 are all 5900 yuan/ton [8][9]. - **Delivery standards**: The delivery quality standard of pure benzene futures follows the national standard 545, and the delivery systems include one - time delivery, rolling delivery, and futures - to - cash delivery. The delivery is mainly through factory warehouses, with warehouse delivery as an auxiliary. The delivery qualifications are for dangerous chemicals, and group - based delivery is adopted [10]. 3.4 Industry Trends - **2025 production and demand trends**: In the first half of 2025, the price of pure benzene continued to decline. In the second half of the year, domestic production supply will continue to increase, and the inventory will gradually decrease. From January to May 2025, the total production of pure benzene was 8.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6%. It is expected that the apparent demand for pure benzene in 2025 will be 31.39 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9% [35]. - **Investment and commissioning**: In the second half of 2025, the commissioning of pure benzene downstream plants will gradually be implemented. From 2026 to 2027, the commissioning of styrene plants will still be relatively large [31][32]. 3.5 Product Structure and Profit - **Product structure change**: From the end of 2022 to May 2025, the proportion of styrene, caprolactam, adipic acid, aniline, and phenol in the downstream of pure benzene has changed. The proportion of styrene has decreased, while the proportion of caprolactam has increased [63]. - **Profit situation**: The profit of the pure benzene - styrene industry chain shows a seesaw effect. The profit of downstream products such as caprolactam, aniline, and phenol also fluctuates. The processing fee of styrene is relatively high in the near - term [36][28].

国泰君安期货·能源化工 甲醇周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 黄天圆 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0018016 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号： Z0021541 日期：2025年08月10日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 综述：窄幅震荡 01 资料来源：隆众资讯，钢联，国泰君安期货研究 本周甲醇总结：窄幅震荡 | 供应 | • | 周内中国甲醇产量减少，检修、减产涉及产能损失量多于恢复涉及产能产出量。数据方面，本周(20250801-0807)中国甲醇产量为1845225吨，较上周减少 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 67900吨，装置产能利用率为81.61%，环比跌3.55%。产量减少主要由于本周期内检修装置增加有关，整体上看，检修损失量远多于恢复增加量。目前统 | | | | 计下期甲醇计划检修装置减少，恢复装置或将增加，因此市场整体供应量或增加。（隆众资讯） | | 需求 | • • | 烯烃：本周浙江兴兴延续停车，神华宁夏上周短停后恢复运行，青海盐湖负荷降低，新疆恒有重启后低负荷运行，各企 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of natural rubber may be strongly sorted due to weather disturbances. Overseas raw material prices are slightly up, and domestic spot inventory is slightly decreasing. The fundamental support is strengthening, so the rubber price is expected to be stable and slightly stronger. The suggested strategies are to expect a side - way but upward - biased trend for single - side trading, and to observe for inter - period and inter - variety trading [85]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first 7 months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber exports increased by 14.3% year - on - year, with a 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month increase in July [5]. - In the first half of 2025, US tire imports increased by 6.8% year - on - year. Imports from China decreased by 4.4% year - on - year, while those from Thailand increased by 12% year - on - year [5]. - In July 2025, China's rubber imports increased by 3.4% year - on - year to 63.4 tons. From January to July, imports increased by 20.8% year - on - year [6]. - In the first half of 2025, Vietnam's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber decreased by 3.4% year - on - year, but exports to China increased by 1.2% year - on - year [7]. Price - This week, both domestic and foreign markets rose synchronously. On August 8, 2025, the closing prices of RU2601, NR2601, Singapore TSR20:2601, and Tokyo RSS3:2601 increased by 2.57%, 2.03%, 2.57%, and 0.83% respectively compared with last week [11][12]. - The basis and spread data show that the basis of whole - milk to RU01 was - 1000 yuan/ton on August 8, 2025, with a 16.28% month - on - month decrease and a 33.77% year - on - year increase. The 01 - 05 spread was - 95 yuan/ton, with a 17.39% month - on - month increase and a 42.42% year - on - year increase [15]. - The spreads of RU - NR, RU - BR, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased, while the spread of NR - SGX TSR20 decreased. The non - standard basis of imported rubber showed different changes, and the spread between whole - milk and Thai - mixed rubber and between 3L and Thai - mixed rubber decreased [24][28][32]. - The price of synthetic rubber was stable, while RU increased, so the spread between synthetic rubber and RU widened [36]. Capital Trends - The virtual - to - physical ratio of RU was at a relatively low level, and the settled funds were at a low level compared with the same period last year. The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR was at a high level, and the settled funds were still at a high level [41]. Fundamental Data Supply - The temperature and rainfall in southern Thailand returned to normal levels compared with the same period in previous years. Rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan has recently eased [46][47]. - The price of Thai cup - lump increased, while the price of smoked sheets decreased. The prices of glue in Yunnan and Hainan were stable [49]. - The spread between Thai glue and cup - lump and the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex and whole - milk decreased [58]. - Thailand's rubber processing profit decreased, while Hainan's concentrated latex processing profit improved [61]. - In June 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. Imports of Thai - mixed, Vietnamese - mixed, and Vietnamese - standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while imports of Thai - standard rubber decreased significantly month - on - month [67]. Demand - During the period, the capacity utilization rate of some semi - steel tire enterprises decreased, dragging down the overall rate. The capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires increased, but the increase was limited [71]. - In June 2025, the exports of all - steel and semi - steel tires decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year [74]. Inventory - This week, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased slightly, and both the inventories of dark and light - colored rubber decreased. The decrease in Qingdao port inventory was due to enterprises' replenishment and the decrease in shipments from the main production areas [77].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The downward trend of fuel oil prices continued this week, and the previous strength of LU further weakened. The supply in the domestic and overseas fuel oil markets is generally loose, with an increasing trend in Middle - East exports in August. The Singapore market has entered a high - inventory state, and the weak spot market transactions will continue to suppress price trends. For low - sulfur fuel oil, although the export volume from Brazil is unstable, there are obvious increases in exports from Kuwait and Indonesia. The RFCC unit maintenance of the Nigerian Dangote refinery may lead to further outflow of heavy - oil resources, and there is still an expectation of increased supply in the Asia - Pacific market. In China, the low - sulfur production decreased slightly in July, the port bunkering demand is still weak, and some refineries are expected to increase low - sulfur exports in August, so the price weakness is hard to shake off. However, attention should be paid to the new batch of export quotas. If the quota is too low, it may support short - term prices [4]. - Valuation: FU is in the range of 2700 - 2850, and LU is in the range of 3300 - 3500 [4]. - Strategies: Unilaterally, it will remain weak following crude oil in the short term; in the inter - period, the contango structure of the near - end of FU and LU will continue; in the inter - variety, the FU crack has fallen to the historical average, but there may still be room for decline, and the LU - FU spread will remain high in the short term [4]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply - The report presents data on the capacity utilization rates of Chinese refineries (including overall, independent, and major refineries), and the maintenance volumes of global CDU, hydrocracking, FCC, and coking units, as well as the monthly production and commercial volume of domestic refinery fuel oil [6][10][20]. Demand - It shows the monthly actual consumption of marine fuel oil in China, the monthly sales of fuel oil for ship supply in Singapore, and the monthly apparent consumption of fuel oil in China [23]. Inventory - Data on global fuel oil spot inventories are provided, including the heavy - oil inventory in Singapore, the fuel oil inventory in European ARA, the heavy - distillate inventory in Fujairah, and the residual fuel oil inventory in the US [27][29][30]. Price and Spread - It includes the FOB prices of fuel oil in different regions (Asia - Pacific, Europe, and the US), paper - cargo and derivative prices, fuel oil spot spreads, global fuel oil crack spreads, and global fuel oil paper - cargo monthly spreads [35][47][61]. Import and Export - There are data on domestic fuel oil import and export, global high - sulfur fuel oil import and export, and global low - sulfur fuel oil import and export [73][78][80]. Futures Market Indicators and Internal - External Spreads - The report reviews that the Asia - Pacific fuel oil prices first rose and then fell this week, and the Zhoushan market moved in tandem. In terms of spreads, the premium of high - sulfur spot and FU over the external - market spot was generally stable, while the premium of the near - month LU contract relative to the Singapore market began to decline. The logic is that the domestic and overseas spot and futures prices generally fell this week. FU was weaker, leading to a narrowing of its premium over the external market. For low - sulfur fuel oil, due to increased domestic refinery production and poor bunkering demand, the number of domestic warehouse receipts increased, and the previous strength of LU began to weaken, resulting in a decline in the premium of LU over the Singapore spot [84].