[季table 度策略报告 _reportdate ] 2025 年 04 月 03 日 检修季能否带来转机 观点摘要： 期货（期权）研究报告 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ➢ 2025 年一季度行情回顾：2025 年 PX 期货迎来新年开年红后就 一路下行，主因是装置检修的炒作和成本端的坍塌。PTA 价格 先涨后跌，同比跌幅较大的主因是成本下降。乙二醇港口库存 拐点未能到来，价格弱势跌破 4400。 ➢ 后市展望：PX 方面，调油季不会掀起波澜，预计价格运行区间 为 6700-7200 元/吨。当下的供需格局较 1-2 月有边际改善，但改 善的程度原不足以拉动价格。4-6 月亚洲存在 1100 万吨以上 PX 装置存在停车安排，其中国内浙石化、中海油、福海创及福佳 均有检修计划，同时恒力及盛虹存在减产预期，检修季会给价 格带来底部支撑，但持续的向上驱动仍需要成本端原油的拉 涨。相较于一季度，成本的影响力度或许会些微降低，PX 自身 需求改善带来的提振属于锦上添花并非雪中送炭，价格能否持 续反弹还需关注原油的动态。PTA 方面，关注原油的变动，预 计价格运行区间为 4700-5100 元/吨。按目前已官宣 ...

| | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/3 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/4/2 | 美元/桶 | 71.71 | 71.20 | 0.72% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/4/2 | 美元/桶 | 74.95 | 74.49 | 0.62% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/4/2 | 美元/吨 | 630.75 | 645.00 | -2.21% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/4/1 | 美元/吨 | 745.50 | 741.50 | 0.54% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/4/2 | 美元/吨 | 850.00 | 855.00 | -0.58% | | | CZCE TA 主力合约 收盘价 | 2025/4/2 | 元/吨 | 4898.00 ...

注明出处为宏源期货，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 风险提示：期市有风险，投资需谨慎！ | | | PX&PTA&PR | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/4/2 | 品种 | 更新日期 | 单位 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌(幅) | | | 期货结算价(连续):WTI原油 | 2025/4/1 | 美元/桶 | 71.20 | 71.48 | -0.39% | | 上 | 期货结算价(连续):布伦特原油 | 2025/4/1 | 美元/桶 | 74.49 | 74.74 | -0.33% | | 游 | 现货价(中间价):石脑油:CFR日本 | 2025/4/1 | 美元/吨 | 645.00 | 646.00 | -0.15% | | | 现货价(中间价):二甲苯(异构级):FOB韩国 | 2025/4/1 | 美元/吨 | 745.00 | 741.50 | 0.47% | | | 现货价:对二甲苯PX:CFR中国主港 | 2025/4/1 | 美元/吨 | 854.00 | 847.00 | 0.8 ...

【車要资讯】 1）宏观：美国参众两院通过临时支出法案，但联邦政府债务上限问题尚未解决，美国国会预算办公室C80预测财政部资金最早可能在+9月耗尽，使美联储放缓缩减资产负债表；美国2 月消费者物价指数071年率为2. 8%低于预期和前值，但因特朗普实施对等关税不确定性引发需求放缓担忧。美联储降息预期增加至6月9及L2月，使美元指数和美债收益率走弱。 l2）上说。哈萨克钢业公司Kazakhuys旗下乌勒旁州江阿尔卡县境内一座铜矿发生矿难事故而暂停生产，ACC Netals旗下Gediktepe多金属矿山的硫化钢矿炉建项目将于2008年一季度投 产目初期年产量为2.5万吨，巴拿马政府准许first Quantum出口Cobre Panaaa相情矿12万实物吨库存量但全部流同日本与韩国。印尼自由港麦克莫兰公司《Freeoort Mallokal》3月 27日被催许�个月内出口127万吨铜精矿但将被征收更高出口税，钢陵有自旗下位于厄瓜多尔钦状拉多钢矿二期8.6万吨产能或于25年下半年投产，巨龙钢矿新增二期20万吨/日扩建工程 或于25年底投产，或使国内4月钢精矿生产《进口》量环比减少〈增加〉，中国银情矿进口搭数为负目较 ...

| | | | Comprehender of the many of the research and the receive of the comments of the coursely of the produc 投资集略 | | --- | | 醬婷攝出口4个月并考慮宴施設出口國。引导电解貼与硫酸甜氣化盐及四氧化三弦生产成花甜，治短，暫停服飾而韓語「壓修飾傳播」獲於飾飾品。 鄭母母子等下游》牌跳出下 | | 降，使中国旗骏提月生产量或环比增加。海外猛烈 供给湖南尼价格超升和国内第五福和库存量超减目处低位起时 商近价，多数合会厂采购意愿情弱而压价采购、使中国福越银川月产中量或队化 | | 增加: 中国三面规体月度加工舞队比有所下降，外采厨粉产三南规体月展生产成本为6600元吨目生产规润为负，中国三面测体中,生产量或环化增加、中国保持品3.03.三元规矩体月且 | | 口量或坏比减少：中国三元材料月度加工要环化有所下降，多晶销费型系三元材料局度平均在产成本为102000元吨目生产利润为负、中国三元材料厂库存量较上同增加、或使中国三元材料4月 | | 住产量不优增加、中国娱站âNCM三元E版材料白进口(出 ...

| | | | | 尿素早评20250401: 高价尿素考验需求 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 日慶 | 变化值 变化值 2025/3/31 单位 2025/3/28 | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | 尿素期货价格 | (收盘价) | UR01 山东 | 元/吨 元/吨 | 1828.00 1950.00 | 1868.00 1960.00 | -40.00 -10.00 | -2.14% -0.51% | | | | UR05 | 元/吨 | 1872.00 | 1893.00 | -21.00 | -1.11% | | | | UR09 | 元/吨 | 1826.00 | 1873.00 | -47.00 | -2.51% | | 期现价格 | | | | | | | | | | | 山西 | 元/吨 | 1870.00 | 1880.00 | -10.00 | -0.53% | | 国内现货价格 | | 河南 | 元/吨 | 1980.00 | 1980.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | ...

| 甲醇日评20250401: 原油大涨支撑化工板块 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 指标 | 单位 | 2025/3/28 | 2025/3/27 | 变化值 | 变化值 | | | | | | (绝对值) | (相对值) | | MA01 | 元/吨 | 2483.00 | 2517.00 | -34.00 | -1.35% | | MA05 甲醇期货价格 | 元/吨 | 2479.00 | 2541.00 | -62.00 | -2.44% | | (收盘价) MA09 | 元/吨 | 2401.00 | 2435.00 | -34.00 | -1.40% | | 太仓 | 元/吨 | 2660.00 | 2685.00 | -25.00 | -0.93% | | 山东 | 元/吨 | 2465.00 | 2470.00 | -5.00 | -0.20% | | 广东 期现价格 | 元/吨 | 2645.00 | 2655.00 | -10.00 | -0.38% | | 甲醇观赏价格 及其差 陕西 | 元/吨 | 2265.00 ...

| 贵金属日评20250401:特朗普政府再次考虑全面高关税,德国3月消费通胀CPI低于前值 | 交易日期 | 较昨日变化 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较上周变化 | 2025-03-31 | 2025-03-28 | 2025-03-25 | 收盘价 | 729. 80 | 722. 80 | 706. 76 | 7.00 | 23. 04 | | | | | | | 成交量 | 462428.00 | 413254.00 | 227, 785. 00 | 234643.00 | 49.174.00 | 期货活跃台约 | 持仓量 | 223123.00 | 220712.00 | 206973.00 | 2, 411. 00 | 16. 150.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 15675.00 | 15675. 00 | 15675. 00 | 0. 00 | 0. 00 | 上海黄金 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - In Q1, PX entered a inventory accumulation cycle due to stable operation of domestic PX plants, relatively stable imports, and frequent planned and unplanned maintenance of PTA plants. In Q2, Asian PX plants will have a concentrated maintenance period, with supply expected to decline significantly and shift from inventory accumulation to depletion. PX prices will recover, depending on the recovery of downstream demand [2]. - PTA prices declined due to weak crude oil, increased production cuts by downstream polyester plants, and a lack of market confidence. Although some previously maintained plants will resume production, the operating load may still decline. PTA may continue to deplete inventory from April to May, which will support prices [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market declined, with supply - side price cuts following weak PTA and futures, and cautious downstream purchasing. The cost - pricing logic will continue in the short term [2]. - After overnight crude oil prices rose, it is expected that PX will run strongly, PTA will run strongly, and PR will run oscillating [2]. Summary by Relevant Content Price Information - **Upstream**: On March 31, 2025, the futures settlement price of WTI crude oil was $71.48/barrel, up 3.06% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $74.74/barrel, up 1.51%. On March 28, the spot price of naphtha (CFR Japan) was $646/ton, up 0.43% [1]. - **PX**: On March 31, the CZCE PX main - contract closing price was 6,858 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; settlement price was 6,860 yuan/ton, down 1.32%. On March 28, the domestic spot price of p - xylene was 6,823 yuan/ton, up 0.24% [1]. - **PTA**: On March 31, the CZCE TA main - contract closing price was 4,842 yuan/ton, down 1.06%; settlement price was 4,854 yuan/ton, down 1.22%. The domestic spot price of PTA was 4,896 yuan/ton, down 0.59% [1]. - **PR**: On March 31, the CZCE PR main - contract closing price was 6,026 yuan/ton, down 0.72%; settlement price was 6,032 yuan/ton, down 1.11%. In the East China market, the market price of polyester bottle - chips was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 0.66%; in the South China market, it was 6,070 yuan/ton, down 0.65% [1]. - **Downstream Products**: On March 31, the CCFEI price index of polyester staple fiber was 6,740 yuan/ton, down 0.30%; polyester chips was 6,030 yuan/ton, down 0.33%; bottle - grade chips was 6,050 yuan/ton, down 0.66% [2]. Operating Conditions - On March 31, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 76.42%, unchanged; the PTA industrial chain load rate of PTA plants was 80.87%, unchanged; polyester plants was 87.92%, down 0.11%; bottle - chip plants was 71.04%, down 0.47%; Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 69.21%, unchanged [1]. - On March 31, the sales - to - production ratio of polyester filament was 54.00%, up 11.00%; polyester staple fiber was 70.00%, down 44.00%; polyester chips was 43.00%, down 8.00% [1]. Device Information - A 2 - million - ton PTA plant in South China, originally planned for maintenance and technological transformation on April 5, has postponed the plan to late April, and the specific situation is to be determined [2]. - A 1.5 - million - ton PX plant in Huizhou is about to enter the shutdown and maintenance process [2].

| | 国内期价: 甲醇主力MA2505弱势下跌, 开2563元/吨, 收2541元/吨, 欧24元/吨, 成交782186手, 持仓691192, 放量 | | --- | --- | | | 减仓。交易日内合约均有成交; | | 资讯 | 国外资讯:周初,远月到港的非伊船货报盘310美元/吨,周后期固定价商谈极少,远月到港的非伊船货参考商谈在+1.5- | | | 1.7%,业者退避观望为主,主动买盘极少,周中少数4月中旬到港的非伊船货成交在+1.5%(5000吨),周五,少数5月上 | | | 旬到港的非伊船货成交在292美元/吨（5000吨）。中东其它区域方面，远月到港的中东其它区域船货商谈参考+0.4- 0.8%,交投气氛清淡,主动选报盘缺失。CFR中国价格参考240-304美元/吨。 | | | 【交易策略】 前一交易日,MA震荡回落,夜盘收于2534。当前甲醇的利多驱动有限。从驱动上看,需求利多已经兑现,暂无进一步利 | | 小结 | 多，供应端则受看检和进口节奏的影响，当前伊朗开工已逐步恢复，另外内地的春检同样会受高利润影响，因此供应端也难 | | | 见到进一步的利多驱动。策略建议:卖出看涨 ...