Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend. With the continuous addition of margin trading funds and the stabilization of Q3 earnings, the medium - term bullish view on stock index direction remains unchanged. In operation, previous medium - term long positions should be held, short - term long positions should set a stop - profit; for options, call options should be held, and short - term stop - profit should be set [16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market rose strongly with heavy volume, breaking through 4,100 points. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap indices rising significantly. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical style indices rose significantly by over 5%, while stable and financial style indices rose less than 1% [7][9][22] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in December, with production and new orders rising by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively [9][41] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously since reaching its peak in May 2023, dropping to 5.89% as of November 2025 [9][52] - Policies include the Politburo's determination to stabilize the real estate market and boost the capital market; the State Council's release of the new Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns; the central bank's creation of two new monetary policy tools; and the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to A - shares annually [9] - In 2025, A - share earnings showed signs of stabilization in Q1, declined in Q2, and continued to stabilize and recover in Q3. The earnings of the four major indices recovered again in Q3 2025 [9][78][82] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at a high level since 2010, while the ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [11][95][97] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to the implementation of policy dividends and the policy expectations of the 14th Five - Year Plan. The medium - term bullish view on stock index direction remains unchanged. In operation, hold previous medium - term long positions, set stop - profits for short - term long positions; hold call options and set short - term stop - profits [16] 2. Index and Industry Trends Review - Last week, the broader market rose strongly with heavy volume, breaking through 4,100 points. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap indices rising significantly. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical style indices rose significantly by over 5%, while stable and financial style indices rose less than 1%. Most Shenwan industries rose, with sectors such as comprehensive, military, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer leading the gains. Only the banking sector fell [22][25] 3. Main Contracts and Basis Trends - Among the four major indices, IC and IM rose strongly. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM is at a relatively high level [30] - In terms of arbitrage of main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upward, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upward, and IM/IC continued to decline [35] 4. Policy and Economy Economic Data - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in December, with production and new orders rising by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively [41] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out in June 2023, weakened after two months of recovery, and has since shown fluctuations in its decline rate. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenues continued to fall to 1.6%, and inventories continued to rise to 4.6%, indicating passive inventory replenishment due to falling demand [44] - In November 2025, China's social financing scale was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.28 billion yuan year - on - year. New RMB loans were 40.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7 billion yuan [47] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously since reaching its peak in May 2023, dropping to 5.89% as of November 2025 [52] Policies - New Nine - Point Plan: Improve listing standards, tighten delisting indicators, and strengthen investor returns [56] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: Increase the actual investment ratio of medium - and long - term funds in A - shares, extend the assessment cycle, and form a joint force for policy implementation [59] - The Politburo aims to stabilize the real estate market and boost the capital market, including measures such as increasing the entry of medium - and long - term funds, promoting mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and adjusting housing purchase restrictions [60] - The central bank creates new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan [63] - The government implements large - scale debt reduction measures, which will directly increase 1 trillion yuan of local debt reduction funds and significantly reduce local hidden debt pressure from 2024 to 2028 [64] - Promote the high - quality development of the capital market by building first - class investment banks and institutions, implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies [65] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial period for achieving multiple strategic goals. It focuses on developing new - quality productivity, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and expanding domestic demand [68] - The US mid - term elections: The fiscal policy during the mid - term elections is expected to be supportive [71] 5. Revenues and Net Profits of Each Index - The stabilization of listed companies' earnings is an important factor affecting the medium - and long - term market trend. A - share earnings showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, declined in Q2, and continued to stabilize and recover in Q3. The earnings of the four major indices recovered again in Q3 2025 [78][82] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.1354, with an upper - bound value of 15.68, at the 92.93rd percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. However, as earnings rise, the valuation will decrease. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [11][95][97] 7. Fed Interest Rate - Not provided in the report 8. Capital Flows - Margin trading: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 8, 2026, the net inflow was 79 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 64.6 billion yuan in the first five trading days [12][102] - As of January 9, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 1.2 billion yuan [12][114] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October. The total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan [12][105] - In Q3 2025, the market value of A - share stocks held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a 18.00% increase from the previous quarter, while the CSI 300 index rose 17.90% during the same period. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting scale growth, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan [12][107][108] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of equity funds was 323.3 billion yuan, with 137 billion yuan in Q3; the newly established share of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan, with 53 billion yuan in Q3. In 2025, index funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [12] - In the period from April 7, 2025, to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan; last week, it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, the ETF funds had a net inflow of 79.3 billion yuan [12] 9. Technical Analysis - Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The latest inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate. With the weakening demand, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, especially for rebar and wire rods. The supply pressure is gradually rising as steel mills resume production with the repair of profits. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased significantly, and the terminal consumption will continue to decline in the off - season. The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery trend, while the downstream construction consumption weakens. The supply - demand contradiction in the industry will gradually accumulate. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly due to the support of macro - policies and cost, but the weak demand still suppresses the market [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments have slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited incremental shipments in the first quarter due to seasonal factors. However, the previous shipments have turned into domestic arrivals, and the port inventory still has the pressure of accumulation, with the current port inventory reaching a new high in recent years. On the demand side, the molten iron output continues to rise in the short term, and steel mills continue to replenish stocks slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the market expects that the winter storage replenishment of steel mills may accelerate, providing some support for the ore price in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies Rebar - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products starts to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8]. - **Supply**: As steel profits recover, some steel mills resume production, molten iron output rises, and finished product output increases slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products declines, terminal consumption weakens in the off - season, and speculative demand is limited [8]. - **View**: The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery, while demand weakens, and the supply - demand contradiction accumulates. The steel price is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments have decreased, while domestic arrivals have increased. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10]. - **Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of 247 steel mills have increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continues to increase, and the steel mill inventory has also increased [10]. - **View**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment of steel mills provides short - term support for the ore price [10]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of iron ore is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, the RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3294 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar main - contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - The apparent consumption and trading volume of steel products are presented in relevant charts, showing the consumption and trading situation of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased [12]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. is presented in relevant charts. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8][12]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Steel Output**: The output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, etc. is presented in relevant charts. With the recovery of steel profits, the output of finished products has increased slightly [8][12]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is presented in relevant charts, with the profitability rate of 247 steel mills at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the previous week [10][12]. - **Blast Furnace Steel Mill**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [10][12]. - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mill**: The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric furnaces are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [12]. - **Molten Iron and Scrap Steel**: The molten iron output and scrap steel consumption are presented in relevant charts, with the molten iron output increasing [12]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Global Shipment**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10][145]. - **Australia - Brazil Shipment**: The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2666.5 tons, a decrease of 317.2 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments decreased by 165.7 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 151.5 tons [10][149]. - **Arrival Volume**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons [10][162]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17044.44 tons, an increase of 322.65 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of steel mills also increased [10][166]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory of national steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons compared with the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore increased, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased [10][182].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal prices are rebounding, driving up the cost side. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate has dropped to a low level. The import pressure in January has decreased, reducing the supply pressure. - Currently, the demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, the olefin profit is poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry is expected to have a reduced load, putting pressure on demand. - The import volume in January has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction at ports. Although the macro - sentiment is good and methanol has risen for four consecutive weeks, the port inventory is still high and the downstream profit is poor, so the methanol price is expected to fluctuate mainly. - For unilateral and option trading, interval operation is recommended, with a reference interval of [2150, 2350] [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 45.11 tons, showing an increasing trend. The import volume is expected to decrease. Due to the opening of the arbitrage space for inland goods to flow to ports, the apparent import demand may weaken, and the port methanol inventory may decline [12]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0511 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.31%, a slight increase compared to the current period. The estimated arrival plan of imported methanol samples is 285,700 tons, including 186,100 tons of explicit and 99,600 tons of non - explicit. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12]. - **Demand**: With the implementation of the MTO maintenance plan in East China, the MTO industry is expected to have a reduced load. In terms of traditional demand, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chlorides have increased [12]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 202 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 227 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1446 yuan/ton [12]. - **Coal Price**: The slow approval of RKAB in Indonesia, the strict implementation of production control targets, and the expected export tariff will still dominate the market sentiment and drive up coal prices [12]. 3.2 Strategies - **MA605 Strategy**: Short MA605. As of January 8, the price of MA605 was 2231 yuan. The logic is that the port inventory is at a relatively high level, the downstream profit is poor, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of January 8, the spread of the May contract was - 209 yuan. The logic is that in 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, with greater supply pressure than methanol, while the new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the methanol demand is resilient. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of January 8, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2220 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basis**: As of January 8, the basis relative to the May contract was - 11 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (20260102 - 0108), the effective production capacity of Chinese methanol plants was 106.275 million tons/year, excluding 1.77 million tons/year of invalid production capacity. The production was 2,042,365 tons, a decrease of 6200 tons month - on - month. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the decrease in the production capacity base [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of January 7, 2026, the methanol arrival volume in China during the period (20260101 - 20260107) was 373,300 tons, including 335,100 tons of foreign vessels (227,100 tons of explicit and 108,000 tons of non - explicit, with 83,400 tons of explicit in Jiangsu) and 38,200 tons of domestic trade vessels (13,300 tons in Jiangsu, 8800 tons of non - explicit in Zhejiang, and 16,100 tons in Guangdong) [91]. - **New Production Capacity in 2025**: China's new methanol production capacity in 2025 was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants were equipped with downstream products such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [94]. - **New Production Capacity in 2026**: China's new methanol production capacity in 2026 is expected to be about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate was 89.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. Although the loads of many MTO enterprises in East China were reduced, the loads of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operating rate after hedging [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate was low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: As of January 7, 2026, the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,500 tons, an increase of 29,500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16% [122]. - **New Downstream Production Capacity**: The new downstream production capacity is expected to be high, with a corresponding methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, indicating that the methanol demand remains resilient [125]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 447,700 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The提货 at the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, while the delivery at the marginal warehouses along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space [133].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level due to the resumption of maintenance - affected enterprises, with production reaching 75.36 million tons in the week of January 8, 2026, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Demand is weak as downstream float glass production lines have cold - repairs, and overall shipment rate dropped to 78.18%. Factory inventories have accumulated significantly, reaching 157.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93%. Overall supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [6]. - **Glass**: Supply is decreasing as two production lines had cold - repairs, with the average capacity utilization rate at 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. Some regions saw improved sales due to market sentiment, and overall enterprise inventories decreased slightly to 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. However, high inventories still suppress the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash**: Supply increased, demand was weak, inventories accumulated, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1150 - 1280 [6]. - **Glass**: Supply decreased, inventories decreased slightly, but high inventories still pressured the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: Upstream includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, etc.; downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [12]. - **Flat Glass**: Upstream includes raw materials like quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and fuels such as natural gas, coal - made gas, and petroleum coke; downstream includes real estate, automotive, and electronics industries [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of January 9, 2026, the FG main contract closed at 1144, and the North China basis closed at - 124 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 94 yuan/ton [21][29]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 9, 2026, the SA main contract closed at 1228, and the North China basis closed at 22 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [25][29]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%, and an inventory days of 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [9][33]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 157.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [6][44]. 3.5 Supply - **Glass**: From January 2 - 8, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points, and the output was 105.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [9][49]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the production was 75.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%, and that of combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [6][57][59]. 3.6 Demand - **Glass**: As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are winding down [64]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the shipment volume was 58.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%, and the overall shipment rate was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [6][78].

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Egg Weekly Report: Synchronous Rebound in Futures and Spot Markets" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The egg market shows significant supply - demand imbalance, with high in - production laying hen inventory, young age structure, limited demand benefits, and still - excess capacity. Egg prices hit bottom multiple times in 2025, pressuring farmers and weakening their confidence. Before 2026, farmers may accelerate the culling of old hens. As the in - production laying hen inventory decreases and the Spring Festival stocking demand starts, the market supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, but the upward price space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13] - The main contract continues to fluctuate widely at a low level, with the pressure level at 3050 - 3100. For options, investors can lightly buy call options of far - month contracts [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Viewpoint** - Spot: The national egg spot price continued to rebound this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin (5.02%) from last week, with the low - price area at 3.00 yuan/jin. In the short term, production costs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. Market trading improved, and inventories were digested. However, the previous price was disappointing, and the industry's continuous losses led to accelerated culling of old hens and low replenishment enthusiasm. The in - production laying hen inventory and new production may decline, but the medium - term supply pressure remains, and the price rebound space is limited [12] - Supply - demand: In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. The newly - hatched laying hens in December were from the chicks replenished around August 2025. Due to over - capacity, low price increases, and high - temperature impacts in August, the number of newly - hatched hens decreased. In December, the egg price increase was weak, and farmers were eager to cull old hens. The actual number of culled old hens was greater than the newly - hatched ones, so the inventory decreased. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [12] - Outlook: The egg market has supply - demand imbalance. The in - production laying hen inventory is high, and the age structure is young. The demand is limited, and the capacity is still excessive. In 2026, farmers may cull old hens before the Spring Festival. As the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival stocking demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is changing, but the price increase is restricted. Future attention should be paid to culling, capacity reduction, and holiday demand [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Price** - The national egg spot price continued to rebound. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin (5.02%) from last week, with the low - price area at 3.00 yuan/jin. In the short term, production costs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price, but the medium - term supply pressure remains, and the price rebound space is limited [24] 3. Capacity - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory** - In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [37] 4. Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory** - In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [37] - **Replenishment Volume Analysis** - In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a 3.39% month - on - month increase. As capacity is gradually reduced, farmers' replenishment sentiment has slightly improved. However, due to the low - level egg price fluctuations and long - term losses in egg chicken farming, most small and medium - sized farmers' replenishment enthusiasm is still low. Only large - scale farms maintain normal chick - buying. The utilization rate of breeding eggs is generally 40% - 50%, and only a few large enterprises can reach about 60%. Considering the low chick price, the chick price is expected to be stable, with an average monthly price of about 2.80 yuan/chick [42] - **Culled Chicken Price** - Based on the average culling age of 488 days in December, the old hens to be culled in January were mostly from the chicks replenished from August to September 2024. With the weak egg price increase and low expectations for the Spring Festival market, farmers plan to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. In January, the supply of old hens is relatively sufficient, and the demand will improve due to Spring Festival stocking. The price of old hens may fluctuate within a narrow range, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [45] - **Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume** - The total slaughter volume of 22 designated slaughter enterprises this week was 2.333 million, a 196,500 increase (9.20% month - on - month) from last week. After the New Year's Day holiday, slaughterhouses resumed work. With the simultaneous increase in egg and chicken prices, the slaughter end is optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market, but the overall purchase increase is limited due to weak downstream demand [48] 5. Demand Side - **Demand Shows Seasonal Trends** - As an agricultural and sideline product, egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually decline from January to April, reach the annual low around April, then rise until reaching the first - half - year high at the end of May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high from mid - to late September, decline after the peak season in September and October, and gradually stabilize from November to December [71] 6. Cost and Profit - **Cost Side** - The feed cost is the main cost of egg chicken farming, accounting for about 80% of the total cost. In 2026, the corn supply is expected to increase, and the annual average price may slightly decrease. The international purchase volume of soybean meal may increase, and its average price may also decline slightly. Although the feed cost may decrease by 1% - 2%, other costs such as labor and epidemic prevention increase. The full - industry full cost is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin. The egg feed cost in 2026 is expected to decline by 1% - 2% year - on - year, which will support egg chicken farming profits [79] - **Egg Chicken Farming Profit** - The egg chicken farming profit is mainly affected by egg prices and farming costs. This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.52 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week. The profit was - 0.42 yuan/jin, a 0.13 yuan/jin (23.64%) increase from last week. The farming cost per chicken was 133.10 yuan/chicken, a 0.13 yuan/chicken (0.10%) increase from last week. The farming profit was 4.84 yuan/chicken, a 4.69 yuan/chicken (49.21%) increase from last week [87]

期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铜周报 铜供需缺口明确，铜价牛市有望延续 20260111 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 资料来源：钢联、华联期货研究所 资料来源：钢联、华联期货研究所 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：美国对委内瑞拉军事 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Fundamental view - After the holiday, both the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises and the slaughter volume decreased, and the spot price of live pigs rose slightly. However, the overall supply pressure remains high, the progress of sows' capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is limited. The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [10][23]. - The inventory of reproductive sows is the core indicator of pig production capacity. In October 2025, it dropped to 39.9 million, falling below 40 million again after 17 months, indicating initial results in capacity regulation. But it is still in the green area of capacity regulation, not a sign of a new pig - price surge cycle. Due to improved production efficiency, the capacity reduction cycle is lengthened. The pig slaughter volume is expected to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle is predicted to be in Q1 2026. The weak spot market and reduced secondary fattening have weakened support for pig prices [10]. Strategy view and outlook - The industry is at a crucial stage of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, and the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase until the first half of 2026. Domestic pork consumption is declining, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term. There may be a "concentrated increase" in supply before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of reproductive sows, the slaughter rhythm, and secondary fattening scale [12]. - For the main contract, the resistance level is 12000 - 12300. In terms of options, one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental view**: Spot price rose slightly after the holiday, but supply pressure remains high and demand is limited; capacity regulation has achieved initial results, but the capacity reduction cycle is long. Pig slaughter volume will increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle may be in Q1 2026 [10]. - **Strategy view**: The main contract resistance level is 12000 - 12300, and one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot price**: The national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58%. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment [23]. - **Futures - spot basis**: No specific analysis provided. - **Futures spread**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - fat price**: The standard - fat price spread narrowed by 0.18 yuan/kg to - 0.61 yuan/kg this week [38]. - **Prices of piglets and binary sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan/head from last week, a week - on - week increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.41%. The price may rise to 400 yuan/head in the middle and late first quarter [42]. - **Price of culled sows**: The price of culled sows adjusted narrowly with the live - pig price. It may fluctuate next week [45]. 3.3 Capacity - **Inventory of reproductive sows**: In October 2025, it was 39.9 million, down 1.1% month - on - month, falling below 40 million again after 17 months. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly, and it may decline slightly in January [50][54]. - **Culling volume of reproductive sows**: In December, the culling volume of 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culling volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected to increase in January [57]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of commercial pigs**: In December, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, down 0.23% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 8.17% year - on - year. It is expected to increase in January [63]. - **Slaughter volume of commercial pigs**: In November, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, down 0.65% month - on - month and up 15.59% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, down 2.03% month - on - month and up 29.75% year - on - year. The slaughter volume may increase in December [66]. - **Average slaughter weight of commercial pigs**: The average slaughter weight adjusted narrowly and the weekly center of gravity moved down slightly [72]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Slaughter volume of live pigs**: In December 2025, as the curing season approached, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses increased by about 20% [77]. - **Cold storage rate of slaughterhouses**: After the holiday, the market demand declined, and the cold storage rate continued to decline as slaughterhouses sold frozen meat [82]. - **Operating rate and fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rate decreased to 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week and up 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to run weakly next week [85]. - **Prices of substitutes**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of pig farming and slaughtering**: At the end of December, the self - breeding and self - raising model turned profitable, with a profit of 86 yuan/head. This week, the overall loss of the pig - farming industry decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising model had a profit of 59.26 yuan/head, and the model of purchasing piglets still had a loss of 74.89 yuan/head, but the loss narrowed [99]. - **Slaughter gross profit and feed - meat ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - grain ratio**: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 1.14% week - on - week. It is expected to be stable with a slight decline next week [107].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 将取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 20260111 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market is strongly influenced by capital sentiment. On the supply side, rumors from overseas and Jiangxi mining areas continue to disrupt the supply outlook. On the demand side, while there are optimistic expectations for energy storage demand, there is short - term pressure from the decline in material factory production schedules. The industry's inventory shows an early signal of turning from destocking to restocking, introducing new variables to the market sentiment. The price is expected to move upward, and the recommended strategy is to consider range - bound trading for the LC2605 contract, with a reference range of (130,000, 150,000), or to buy call options [10][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On January 4, 2026, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", indicating that lithium resource development will become more "green and intensive" and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid waste treatment capabilities. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised market concerns again. - On December 26, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and lead innovation, and comprehensively rectify the "involution - style" competition during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. - On December 25, 2025, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would conduct production - reduction maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 to 20,000 tons. - On December 24, 2025, it was reported that the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information for the project. - On December 16, 2025, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining licenses [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly Views - **Market Review**: From January 2 to January 9, 2026, the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 139,100 yuan/ton on January 9, a 18.64% increase from January 2. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 143,420 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.96%. The open interest of the main - month contract is about 510,900 lots. - **Supply**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, a small number of lithium salt factories plan to conduct maintenance, but the actual impact on production is limited, and most enterprises maintain stable production. The overall operating rate of domestic lithium salt factories remains high, and new projects in production continue to increase output. Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt the stability of overseas lithium resource supply. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" has tightened the mine approval standards, affecting the domestic mining supply outlook. - **Demand**: The downstream production schedule declined. The demand outlook for the energy - storage sector remains strong. Some lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate producers plan to conduct maintenance, and the power - battery industry is in a seasonal off - peak, suppressing short - term raw material procurement demand. Some downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises have confirmed price increases and propose that the settlement price of lithium carbonate follow the futures trend. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high - price spot lithium carbonate and mainly purchase for rigid demand. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The price of lithium concentrate has risen following the futures price of lithium carbonate. Although the import volume of lithium concentrate is sufficient, miners are strongly inclined to hold prices, and the price of spodumene remains firm. The cost side provides rigid support for the spot price. Integrated enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes still have considerable profits at the current high - price level, while processing enterprises relying on purchased raw materials have relatively thin profits. The industry's overall inventory level is low, and this week it turned from continuous destocking to restocking. Lithium salt factories are more willing to sell spot goods, and their inventory has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand, and the trading sector is more willing to sell. The futures warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, reaching 20,000 tons. - **Outlook**: As mentioned above. - **Strategy**: As mentioned above [10]. 3.2 Industry Structure - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, and recycled lithium), lithium salt products (carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, energy storage, etc.) [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a 17.96% increase from the previous period; the trading volume was 469,479 lots, a 19.63% increase; the open interest was 510,874 lots, a 4.22% increase; and the total number of warehouse receipts was 25,360 lots, a 25.04% increase [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - There is a seasonal chart and a historical price chart of the lithium carbonate spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total lithium carbonate inventory was 109,405 tons, a 0.0045% increase from the previous period; the market inventory was 65,949 tons, a 5.4% decrease; the factory inventory was 18,096 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and the registered warehouse receipt volume was 25,360 tons, a 25.04% increase [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - There are charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Supply - Side: Production, Capacity, and Import - Export of Lithium Carbonate - There are charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as its net import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [42]. 3.6.2 Supply - Side: Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) - From 2025 - 12 to 2026 - 12, multiple companies in different regions such as Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. have planned new lithium - carbonate production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. 3.6.3 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate imports, including those from Argentina and Chile, as well as annual cumulative import charts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [48]. 3.6.4 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials), but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [58]. 3.6.5 Supply - Side: Spodumene Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly spodumene imports from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as charts of monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [69]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Demand - Side: Overall Demand Situation - There are charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and seasonal chart of monthly power - battery production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [82]. 3.7.2 Demand - Side: Power Batteries - There are charts of monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the proportion of power - battery installation volume of each vehicle type and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [88]. 3.7.3 Demand - Side: Output of Each Material - There are charts of the output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a long - term supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995, including data on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of downstream products, and inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [107].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货双焦周报 强预期弱现实，双焦宽幅偏强震荡 20260111 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链 3 期现市场 4 库存端 5 供给端 6 需求端 u 供应：2026年1月9日523家样本矿山炼焦煤开工率85.34%，周环比增长；全样本独立焦化厂产能利用率72.69%，周环比增长； 钢厂焦炭方面，本周产能利用率85.67%；日均产量46.88万吨，周环比微幅增长。 u 需求：截止1月9日MYSTEEL调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.31%；日均铁水产量229.5万吨，铁水产量环比小幅增加。247家钢 厂盈利率37.66%。吨焦平均利润-45元/吨，吨焦平均利润较前周下降31元/吨。 u 库存：截止1月9日230家独立焦化厂焦煤库存911.96万吨，环比小 ...