期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货股指周报 市场或有反复，但预计大盘仍保持震 荡调整态势 20250622 段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 从业资格号：F3048935 0769-22116880 审核：陈小国,交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 回顾：上周大盘先扬后抑，最终小幅调整。四大指数震荡调整，中小盘股指跌幅更大。 此外，中长期信贷增长率由2022年8月低点震荡反复后2022年11月（10.21%）开始企稳回升以来连续上升至2023年月5 月高点(12.94%)，截止2025年5月，连续24个月回落至6.78%，继续创2011年以来新低。 风格指数方面，上周风格指数全线下跌，其中成长风格指数跌幅最大。申万行业方面，上周申万行业绝多数行业下 跌，其中纺织服装、医药、有色、旅游等板块跌幅居前。仅银行、通信和电子行业上涨。 经济：2025年5月制造业PMI为49.5%，较上月上升0.5个百分点。非制造业PMI为50.3%，较上月回落0.1个百分点。中 美谈判，双方90天内关税下降，PMI回升。从分项来看，5月产需回升，生产上升0.9%，新订单上升0.6 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供需延续弱势 主要关注外围影响 20250622 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率78.62%，环比降低0.63个百分点，同比降低0.7个百分点，处在同期中性位。新增产能 增加陕西金泰二期30万吨/年。产量总体维持高位压力。 需求：下游制品开工率总体弱势，受雨季传统淡季影响，管型材企业开工继续走低，宏观层面房地产仍拖累终端 需求。出口方面据隆众周内签单有所增加，不过印度接单仍较少。 库存：社会库存（41 家）56.93万吨，环比降低0.75%，同比降低38%。下游逢低补库，出口交付增加。企业库存 40.16万吨，环比增加1.29%，同比增加25.23%。注册仓单量继续增加。 观点：成本端电石价格弱势，乙烯小幅反弹，整体估值驱动仍不足。近期原油受地缘影响强势，带来一定的盘面 刺激。 策略：操作上激进型少量低多，2509合约支撑参考4780，可买入持有看跌期权保护。 产业链结构 产业 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 地缘风波再起，打开油价上涨空间 20250622 黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：当周美国商业原油库存下降，但汽油和馏分油库存增加。美国原油库存下降1150万桶，该降幅为自2024年6月28日当周以来最大，此前市场预期为减少180万 桶。当周美国原油库存为4.209亿桶，为自1月以来最低水平。美国战略石油储备(SPR)增加20万桶，至4.023亿桶。美国库欣的原油库存减少995.000桶。美国汽油库 存增加209,000桶，至2.300亿桶，此前市场预期为增加60万桶。美国包括柴油和取暖油的馏分油库存增加514,000桶，至1.094亿桶，此前市场预期为增加40万桶。 当周美国原油净进口量减少175万桶/日，美国原油出口量增加110万桶/日至440万桶/日。 ◆ 供应：受到地缘因素影响，伊朗300万桶/日的原油供应可能受到威胁，同时市场担忧霍尔木兹海峡通航受阻，涉及1600万桶/日的原油供给；上 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 美生柴政策利好影响还未消退 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20250622 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 产业链结构 产业链结构 ◆ 总的来看，在原油强势以及美国生柴政策利好的情况下，油脂短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 豆油方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，2025年6月1-15日马棕产量减少4%。ITS和Amspec数据显示，马来西亚6月1-20 日棕榈油出口量较上月同期出口增加14.31%和10.88%。6月的马棕产量小幅下降，同时出口数据大幅增加，利 好棕榈油。 ◆ 菜油方面，近期国内菜油库存有所下降，但仍处于历史同期高位，供应充足，后期国内菜籽进口 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 成本端支撑增强，聚烯烃价格重心或上移 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：51万吨左右，库存预计由跌转涨，主因市场价格连续推涨， 下游工厂抵触高价，采购有放缓预期；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：59万吨左右，较本期下降，现货市场偏强运行，下游 存一定刚需消耗，因此预计生产企业库存窄幅下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，涉及中天合创等检修装置重启，新增浙江石化等计划检修装置，预计总产量在60.89万吨，总产 量环比-0.40万吨；中国聚丙烯总产量预估：78万吨，继续增加，延续上升趋势。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计：预计PE下游各行业整体开工率变化不大，企业下游有少量新单跟进，但下游终端备货意愿有所增强， 市场交投氛围有所好转；聚丙烯消费因进入季节性消费淡季持续转弱。 ◆ 产业链利润：油制PE与PP ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 周度观点及策略 周度观点 华联期货PTA周报 供需偏稳 原油强势带动反弹 20250622 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 供应：上周PTA周均产能利用率81.55%，环比降低1.7个百分点，同比增加5.47个百分点，处在同期高位。周内嘉兴 石化重启，东北大厂停车检修及逸盛新材料降符负荷。供应总体维持高位。 需求：上周聚酯行业周产量156.06万吨，环比增加0.58%，同比增加11.58%。截至6月19日江浙地区化纤织造综合 开工率54.16%，环比降低0.39个百分点，同比降低5.9个百分点。终端逐步进入传统淡季，需求端预期悲观。 库存：上周PTA行业库存量约350.57万吨，环比降低0.55%。PTA工厂库存4.15天，环比增加0.12天，同比增加0.01 天。成品长丝短纤去库瓶片累库。 观点：总体供需持稳，成本方面原油受地缘影响维持强势，TA估值驱动明显上升。技术面震荡偏强。 策略：操作方面建议激进型投资者维持轻仓持多，2509合约支撑参考48 ...

供需僵持 猪价区间震荡 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货生猪周报 20250525 蒋琴 交易咨询号：Z0014038 从业资格号：F3027808 0769-22110802 审核：段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 产能 4 供给端 5 需求端 6 成本及利润 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 u 现货：周内生猪现货价格窄幅震荡，整体走势趋于平稳。据我的农产品网数据显示，全国生猪出栏均价为14.46元/公斤，较上 周价格下跌0.25元/公斤，环比下跌1.70%，同比下降8.42%，低价区报13.80元/公斤。近期随着气温升高，下游对高价订单的接 受能力有限，终端消费进一步转弱，市场看跌预期逐渐增强。不过随着猪价回落，或有二育入场支撑。同时屠企为控制库存和成 本，采取主动缩量挺价策略，故猪价暂并未出现明显下跌，再次陷入僵持状态，价格整体波动幅度较小。 u 产能：据国家统计据数据显示，2025年3月末能繁母猪存栏为4039万头，较24年12月末的4078万头减少39万头，季度环比降幅为 0.96%；据了解当前养殖户大多选择主动淘汰母猪来应对下半年 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 2%. On May 16, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 265,500 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In April, refined tin production increased slightly month - on - month, and tin ore imports from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% annual decrease [11]. - Demand recovered in March. The expansion of support for consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. Although trade disputes in April affected demand, recent improvements in macro - trade disputes led to continuous marginal improvements in supply and demand [11]. - With the mine end remaining tight and processing fees weak, profits will stay low under the background of mine - end interference [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories increased slightly, which is unfavorable for inventory reduction [11]. - Considering the improvement in macro - trade disputes but the instability at the mine end, and the price having mostly reflected the supply - demand and macro - improvement expectations, short - term long positions are recommended. The weekly reference range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Price Trend**: Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly last week with a 2% increase. Spot price on May 16, 2025, was 265,500 yuan/ton, with small futures price fluctuations and stable basis [11]. - **Supply**: April refined tin production increased slightly month - on - month. January - March 2025 tin ore imports dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut production guidance to 17,500 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Recovered in March. Support for consumer goods replacement and AI breakthroughs boosted demand. Trade disputes in April affected demand, but recent improvements led to marginal supply - demand improvements [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Mine end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories increased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions. Weekly reference range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis charts, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 15, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,163 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 14, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,745 tons, also a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 9, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 10,201 tons, a slight week - on - week increase [26][29]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 15, 2025, Yunnan's concentrate processing fee was 11,000 yuan/ton, and Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [33]. 3.6 Supply - In April 2025, refined tin production was 14,712 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease. In April 2025, tin enterprise capacity utilization was about 63.16%, a slight increase [37][41]. - New projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 - 2026 [42]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. Electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [48][52]. - In March 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Refrigerator production was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. Washing machine production was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Color TV production was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [55][58]. - In March 2025, China's solar energy production was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. Integrated circuit production was 41.971999 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [61]. 3.8 Import and Export - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842, 8,745, and 8,322.5 tons respectively, imported tin of 2,334, 1,869, and 2,100 tons respectively, and exported refined tin of 2,131, 2,373, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [65]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The global tin supply - demand balance shows that from 2017 - 2025E, there have been periods of surplus and deficit. In 2025E, the global supply is expected to be 36.95 million tons, and the demand is expected to be 37.9 million tons, with a deficit of 0.95 million tons [67].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 贸易争端降温 期价震荡反弹 20250519 作者：姜世东 交易咨询号：Z0020059 从业资格号：F03126164 0769-22110802 审核：孙伟涛 交易咨询号：Z0014688 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 周度观点及策略 周度观点 u 宏观：中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：降低或取消相关关税。国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税措施。美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨0时01分，撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34% 的对等关税措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天。央行发布数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较 上月增速加快。 u 供应：镍矿方面，2025年RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，但印尼镍矿RKAB审批额度能否如期放量仍存不确定性，政策扰动风 险仍在；4月份中国镍铁小幅减少；印尼镍铁保持高位；硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍企业开工 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly decline of 0.29%. On May 9, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 260,000 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In March, refined tin production rebounded, while imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease from the previous guidance [11]. - Demand recovered in March. Policies supporting consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. However, trade disputes in the second quarter affected demand. Currently, macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy fluctuations due to trade disputes cause significant swings in demand expectations [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees are weak. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of ore - end disturbances [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies causing large fluctuations in demand expectations and the short - term recovery of the ore end putting pressure on prices (which has already been reflected in prices), short - term trading is recommended for now. The weekly reference range is 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances in Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai tin market had a small - scale shock last week, with a 0.29% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin on May 9, 2025, was 260,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production increased in March, and imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut its production guidance [11]. - **Demand**: Demand recovered in March but was affected by trade disputes in the second quarter. Macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy changes lead to large fluctuations in demand expectations. The central bank introduced ten policy measures [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory decreased week - on - week [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term trading is recommended for now, with a weekly reference range of 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors**: Production has a bearish impact as the ore - end supply eases; downstream demand is bearish due to trade - affected demand expectations; inventory is neutral as it is being depleted; imports and exports are bullish as net exports are stable; market sentiment and cost - profit are neutral; the macro situation is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report shows graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 8, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,334 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 7, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,755 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. As of May 2, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 9,782 tons, a week - on - week decrease [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 8, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - **Production**: In March 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, an increase after the Spring Festival. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, a slight increase [43]. - **New Capacity**: New tin - mining projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 to 2026, with a total planned capacity of 37,400 tons/year [45]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%; electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%; PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; air - conditioner production in March 2025 was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; refrigerator production in March 2025 was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%; washing - machine production in March 2025 was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; color TV production in March 2025 was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; solar - cell production in March 2025 was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; integrated - circuit production in March 2025 was 419.71999 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [51][55][58][61][64]. 3.8 Imports and Exports - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, and 8,322.5 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, and 2,100 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [68]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The table shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 to 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance. In 2025E, the global supply - demand balance is - 0.95 million tons [70].