期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货工业硅、多晶硅周报 将取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税 20260111 作者：陈小国 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 2 行业格局 3 期现市场 4 库存 1 周度观点及热点资讯 8 进出口 5 成本利润 6 供给 7 需求 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及热点资讯 热点资讯 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自己公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 自2026年4月1日起，取消光伏等产品增值税出口退税。自2026年 ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current lithium carbonate market is strongly influenced by capital sentiment. On the supply side, rumors from overseas and Jiangxi mining areas continue to disrupt the supply outlook. On the demand side, while there are optimistic expectations for energy storage demand, there is short - term pressure from the decline in material factory production schedules. The industry's inventory shows an early signal of turning from destocking to restocking, introducing new variables to the market sentiment. The price is expected to move upward, and the recommended strategy is to consider range - bound trading for the LC2605 contract, with a reference range of (130,000, 150,000), or to buy call options [10][12]. 3. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - On January 4, 2026, the State Council issued the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan", indicating that lithium resource development will become more "green and intensive" and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid waste treatment capabilities. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised market concerns again. - On December 26, 2025, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key is to standardize the order and lead innovation, and comprehensively rectify the "involution - style" competition during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period. - On December 25, 2025, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would conduct production - reduction maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, which is expected to reduce the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 to 20,000 tons. - On December 24, 2025, it was reported that the lithium mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. in Zhenkouli, Yifeng County - Jianxiawo, Fengxin County is expected to resume production around the Spring Festival. - The Yichun Tendering Network in Jiangxi Province released the first environmental impact assessment information for the project. - On December 16, 2025, the Yichun Natural Resources Bureau planned to cancel 27 mining licenses [8]. 3.1.2 Weekly Views - **Market Review**: From January 2 to January 9, 2026, the spot price of lithium carbonate rose significantly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 139,100 yuan/ton on January 9, a 18.64% increase from January 2. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated downward, with the latest transaction price at 143,420 yuan/ton and a weekly increase of 17.96%. The open interest of the main - month contract is about 510,900 lots. - **Supply**: This week, the production of lithium carbonate increased slightly. Before the Spring Festival, a small number of lithium salt factories plan to conduct maintenance, but the actual impact on production is limited, and most enterprises maintain stable production. The overall operating rate of domestic lithium salt factories remains high, and new projects in production continue to increase output. Geopolitical factors continue to disrupt the stability of overseas lithium resource supply. The "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" has tightened the mine approval standards, affecting the domestic mining supply outlook. - **Demand**: The downstream production schedule declined. The demand outlook for the energy - storage sector remains strong. Some lithium iron phosphate and lithium hexafluorophosphate producers plan to conduct maintenance, and the power - battery industry is in a seasonal off - peak, suppressing short - term raw material procurement demand. Some downstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises have confirmed price increases and propose that the settlement price of lithium carbonate follow the futures trend. Downstream material factories are cautious about the current high - price spot lithium carbonate and mainly purchase for rigid demand. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The price of lithium concentrate has risen following the futures price of lithium carbonate. Although the import volume of lithium concentrate is sufficient, miners are strongly inclined to hold prices, and the price of spodumene remains firm. The cost side provides rigid support for the spot price. Integrated enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes still have considerable profits at the current high - price level, while processing enterprises relying on purchased raw materials have relatively thin profits. The industry's overall inventory level is low, and this week it turned from continuous destocking to restocking. Lithium salt factories are more willing to sell spot goods, and their inventory has slightly decreased. Downstream enterprises replenish inventory for rigid demand, and the trading sector is more willing to sell. The futures warehouse receipts increased significantly this week, reaching 20,000 tons. - **Outlook**: As mentioned above. - **Strategy**: As mentioned above [10]. 3.2 Industry Structure - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, and recycled lithium), lithium salt products (carbonate lithium, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, energy storage, etc.) [16]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets 3.3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the active lithium carbonate contract was 143,420 yuan/ton, a 17.96% increase from the previous period; the trading volume was 469,479 lots, a 19.63% increase; the open interest was 510,874 lots, a 4.22% increase; and the total number of warehouse receipts was 25,360 lots, a 25.04% increase [22]. 3.3.2 Spot Market - There is a seasonal chart and a historical price chart of the lithium carbonate spot price, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [25]. 3.4 Inventory - The total lithium carbonate inventory was 109,405 tons, a 0.0045% increase from the previous period; the market inventory was 65,949 tons, a 5.4% decrease; the factory inventory was 18,096 tons, a 4.5% decrease; and the registered warehouse receipt volume was 25,360 tons, a 25.04% increase [33]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - There are charts of the comprehensive cost and comprehensive profit of lithium carbonate, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [38]. 3.6 Supply 3.6.1 Supply - Side: Production, Capacity, and Import - Export of Lithium Carbonate - There are charts of the monthly production, capacity, and capacity utilization rate of lithium carbonate, as well as its net import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [42]. 3.6.2 Supply - Side: Major Project Tracking (Potential Capacity) - From 2025 - 12 to 2026 - 12, multiple companies in different regions such as Jiangxi, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, etc. have planned new lithium - carbonate production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. 3.6.3 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate imports, including those from Argentina and Chile, as well as annual cumulative import charts, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [48]. 3.6.4 Supply - Side: Lithium Carbonate Production from Different Raw Materials - There are seasonal charts of monthly lithium carbonate production from different raw materials (spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake, and recycled materials), but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [58]. 3.6.5 Supply - Side: Spodumene Import Situation - There are seasonal charts of monthly spodumene imports from Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as charts of monthly import volume and cumulative import volume, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [69]. 3.7 Demand 3.7.1 Demand - Side: Overall Demand Situation - There are charts of the monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and seasonal chart of monthly power - battery production, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [82]. 3.7.2 Demand - Side: Power Batteries - There are charts of monthly production, installation volume, export, and energy - storage situation of power batteries, as well as the proportion of power - battery installation volume of each vehicle type and the monthly production and demand proportion of cathode materials, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [88]. 3.7.3 Demand - Side: Output of Each Material - There are charts of the output of lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, cobalt - acid lithium, and manganese - acid lithium, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [98]. 3.8 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides a long - term supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from 1995, including data on total supply, total demand, supply - demand gap, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of downstream products, and inventory, but no specific data analysis is provided in the summary part [107].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货双焦周报 强预期弱现实，双焦宽幅偏强震荡 20260111 作者：姜世东 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03126164 交易咨询号：Z0020059 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链 3 期现市场 4 库存端 5 供给端 6 需求端 u 供应：2026年1月9日523家样本矿山炼焦煤开工率85.34%，周环比增长；全样本独立焦化厂产能利用率72.69%，周环比增长； 钢厂焦炭方面，本周产能利用率85.67%；日均产量46.88万吨，周环比微幅增长。 u 需求：截止1月9日MYSTEEL调研247家钢厂高炉开工率79.31%；日均铁水产量229.5万吨，铁水产量环比小幅增加。247家钢 厂盈利率37.66%。吨焦平均利润-45元/吨，吨焦平均利润较前周下降31元/吨。 u 库存：截止1月9日230家独立焦化厂焦煤库存911.96万吨，环比小 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - After the holiday, Shanghai tin showed a strong high - level volatile trend. On January 9, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 327,000 yuan/ton, with large fluctuations in futures prices and significant changes in basis [16]. - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal in terms of both month - on - month and year - on - year comparisons. The cumulative domestic tin ore output from January to September was 56,500 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase. The domestic tin ore supply remained stable. The repeated process of mine resumption in Myanmar affected the price range. In November, Indonesia's exports returned to normal, with an export volume of 7,458.64 tons, a 25.59% year - on - year increase and a 182% month - on - month increase [16]. - In November, the demand growth in integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white - goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging fields will maintain resilience, while the demand in some traditional fields will be adjusted. According to preliminary estimates by the Passenger Car Association, in December 2025, the wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles by national passenger - car manufacturers was 1.57 million, a 4% year - on - year increase and an 8% month - on - month decrease. The cumulative wholesale volume of new - energy passenger vehicles in 2025 was 15.33 million, a 25% year - on - year increase. The domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new - energy and semiconductor industries has improved; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest - rate cuts in the later period [16]. - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, under the background of mine - end interference, profits will remain at a low level [16]. - LME inventory increased slightly on a weekly basis; SHFE inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis; and social inventory decreased slightly on a weekly basis [16]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest - rate cuts. The mine - end situation is unstable, and the futures price remains strong. However, high - price expectations may suppress demand and stimulate supply. The industry association has called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude. In terms of operation, hold long positions with a light position. Those with heavy positions can appropriately reduce their positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton. Long positions can buy put options for protection. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification and guidance of consumption data [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy - **View**: After - holiday high - level strong volatility in Shanghai tin, with large fluctuations in futures prices and basis. Supply, demand, cost - profit, and inventory show different trends. The domestic economy has resilience, and overseas uncertainties remain high [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions with a light position, reduce heavy positions appropriately. The reference support level is 320,000 - 323,000 yuan/ton, and long positions can buy put options for protection. Pay attention to macro - measures, mine disturbances, export speed, and consumption data [16]. 2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3. Futures and Spot Markets No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than mentioning the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis figures. 4. Inventory - As of January 8, 2026, SHFE inventory was 6,788 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 7, 2026, LME total inventory was 5,405 tons, increasing slightly on a weekly basis. As of January 2, 2026, the refined tin social inventory was 9,309 tons, decreasing slightly on a weekly basis [33][37]. 5. Cost and Profit As of January 9, 2026, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 6. Supply - In November 2025, the refined tin output was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. The domestic tin ore output in September was 6,263.28 tons, showing a slight month - on - month decrease. In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][53]. 7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile output was 3.519 million, a 2.4% year - on - year increase; the output of electronic computers was 29.028 million, a 1.4% year - on - year decrease. In December 2025, China's PVC output was 2.137 million tons, an 8.5% year - on - year increase; in November 2025, the output of mobile electronic communications was 142.35 million, an 11.6% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 15.026 million, a 23.4% year - on - year decrease; the refrigerator output was 9.442 million, a 5.6% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, China's washing - machine output was 12.013 million, a 5.5% year - on - year increase; the color - TV output was 17.449 million, a 5% year - on - year decrease. In November 2025, China's solar - cell output was 73.49 million kilowatts, a 7.8% year - on - year increase; the integrated - circuit output was 43.9 million pieces, a 15.6% year - on - year increase [60][65][70][75][79]. 8. Import and Export In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [83]. 9. Supply - Demand Table The table shows the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of tin from 2018 to 2026E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [86].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Gold Weekly Report: Short-term High-level Volatility, Long-term Upward Logic Remains Unchanged" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints - In 2025, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes were 70.63% and 64.56% respectively; in the first week of 2026, they were 3.69% and 3.96% respectively [7][29] - Inflation data has shown a downward trend, with the US core CPI in November rising at the slowest pace since early 2021, which is favorable for the Fed to cut interest rates [7][33] - US Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward, and real interest rates rose slightly in November [7][38][43] - The global gold supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024, while the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. In 2025, investment demand increased significantly both globally and domestically [7][56] - The US economy showed mixed signals, with non - farm employment slightly lower than expected but the unemployment rate falling unexpectedly [7][50] - It is expected that the Fed will cut interest rates twice in 2026, and factors such as the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are favorable for the long - term rise of gold prices. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term [11] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Gold price trends: In 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes had significant increases, and they also rose in the first week of 2026 [7][29] - Inflation situation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been relatively stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to interest rate cuts [7][33] - Interest rate trends: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [7][38][43] - Supply and demand: The global gold supply and demand were loose in 2024, and the domestic supply and demand were in a tight balance. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025, and domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 [7][56] - US economic data: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [7][50] Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: Gold futures contracts were in a high - level volatile state last week. The Fed's potential interest rate cuts in 2026, the decline in the global US dollar reserve ratio, and the increase in the US fiscal deficit are all favorable for gold prices. It is expected that gold will maintain an upward trend in the first half of 2026 [11] - Operation suggestions: Hold long positions in gold in the medium term and set stop - profits in the short term. For options, take profits on call options and then observe [11] 2. Spot and Futures Markets - Last week, gold prices were in a high - level volatile state, with the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes rising in 2025 and the first week of 2026 [23][29] 3. Inflation and Interest Rates - Inflation: CPI and PCE peaked in June 2022 and then declined. Core inflation has been stable, and the slow rise of the core CPI in November is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cuts [33] - Interest rates: US medium - term Treasury yields have been fluctuating downward since mid - to late October 2023, and real interest rates rose in November [38][43] 4. US Economy - GDP: The US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year in the third quarter of 2025, up from 2.08% in the second quarter [46] - PMI: The ISM manufacturing PMI in December 2025 continued to decline, while the non - manufacturing PMI continued to strengthen [46] - Non - farm employment: The non - farm employment growth in December was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate was lower than expected. The average hourly wage growth of non - farm employees continued to decline [50] 5. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Global: The supply and demand were in a loose state in 2024 due to inventory increases, and central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. Investment demand increased significantly in 2025 [56] - Domestic: The supply and demand were in a tight balance in 2024, and investment demand increased significantly in 2025. Domestic jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026 due to the new gold tax policy [56] 6. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content 7. Gold Domestic - International Price Spread - The price spread between the domestic and international gold markets is within a reasonable range, but no specific data or analysis is provided [87] 8. Gold Basis - Not mentioned in the provided content 9. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Not elaborated on specific trends and impacts in the provided content

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Macro Weekly Report: Moderate Recovery in Prices and Continuous Gold Purchases by the Central Bank" [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - In December 2025, China's CPI showed a moderate increase, with an annual CPI remaining flat compared to the previous year. The PPI decreased in 2025 but showed signs of improvement in December. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range in December, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [8][11][251] - The "Two New" policies (equipment renewal + consumer goods trade - in) and housing - related policies were introduced in 2026, which are expected to have an impact on the market, especially in the consumer and real estate sectors [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates showed fluctuations from 2023 to 2025. Different industries had different growth trends, with industries like information technology and finance showing relatively stable growth, while the real estate industry had negative growth in some periods [17] 3.2 Industry 3.2.1 Industrial Growth - The growth of the industrial sector was diverse. Some industries such as automobile manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing had relatively high growth rates, while others like coal mining and textile had more moderate or negative growth in certain months [30][32][33] 3.2.2 Industrial Output - Output of various industrial products, including energy, raw materials, and finished products, showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil and steel had fluctuations, and the output of new energy vehicles increased [35] 3.2.3 Industrial Electricity Consumption - In November 2025, China's total electricity consumption reached 8356 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The "14th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to have an average annual growth rate of 4.2% - 5.6% [42] 3.2.4 Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 0.1% year - on - year. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries like electronics and power showing growth and others like coal mining showing a decline [46][50] 3.2.5 Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of October 2025, the finished - goods inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 3.7% year - on - year. The inventory of the mining industry decreased, while that of the mid - and downstream manufacturing industries remained stable [57] 3.3 Price Index 3.3.1 CPI - In December 2025, the national CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. Food prices had a significant impact on CPI, with fresh vegetables and fruits driving the increase, while pork prices had a downward effect [64] 3.3.2 PPI - In December 2025, the national PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. Production materials prices had a greater impact on the overall PPI decline [73] 3.3.3 Housing Prices - In November 2025, new - home and second - hand home prices in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities generally showed a downward trend year - on - year, with different degrees of decline [83][88] 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment 3.4.1 Import and Export Trade - In November 2025, China's total import and export value was $520.63 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Exports decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year [97] 3.4.2 Key Commodity Exports and Imports - The exports and imports of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and high - tech products showed different trends. For example, the export of high - tech products like electric vehicles increased [105][106] 3.4.3 Foreign Investment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year - on - year. Investment in different industries had different trends, with the secondary industry showing growth and the tertiary industry showing a decline [120] 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed fluctuations. The retail sales of different consumer goods categories also had different performance [163][170] 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers showed different trends in different transportation modes. For example, the railway and civil aviation transportation had different growth rates in passenger volume [173][178] 3.8 Banking and Currency 3.8.1 Social Financing - The new social financing scale and its components showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different financing methods such as RMB loans, government bonds, and corporate bonds had different growth trends [188] 3.8.2 Monetary Liquidity - In October 2025, the growth rates of M1 and M2 decreased. The M2 - M1 scissors gap widened slightly, and the money activation trend slowed down [204] 3.8.3 Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to reduce the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate remained basically stable against a basket of currencies [213][231] 3.9 Fiscal and Employment 3.9.1 Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - Fiscal revenue and expenditure data showed different trends in different months. Tax revenue and non - tax revenue, as well as different expenditure items such as infrastructure and people's livelihood, had different growth rates [239][240] 3.9.2 Employment - Not provided in detail in the given content 3.10 Business Climate Survey 3.10.1 Global Manufacturing PMI - The global manufacturing PMI showed fluctuations from 2024 to 2025. Different countries and regions had different manufacturing climate situations [248] 3.10.2 China's Manufacturing and Non - manufacturing PMI - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded. Different industries within the non - manufacturing sector had different degrees of recovery [251][259] 3.11 US Macroeconomy 3.11.1 US GDP - The US real GDP had different growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025, with private consumption, investment, and net exports having different impacts on GDP growth [266] 3.11.2 US Employment - The US non - farm payrolls and unemployment rate data showed the employment situation in the United States [269] 3.11.3 US Treasury Yields - The yields of different - term US Treasury bonds showed different trends, and the yield curve inversion situation also changed [274] 3.11.4 US Retail Sales - The US retail and food service sales had different growth rates from 2024 to 2025, with different categories of goods having different performance [277] 3.11.5 Federal Reserve's Assets and Liabilities - The Federal Reserve's asset structure and federal funds rate, as well as the changes in the reverse - repurchase amount on the liability side, were presented [278][281]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1294.537 billion yuan, with the supply rhythm significantly advanced at the beginning of the year. Government bonds and credit bonds jointly pushed up the weekly issuance volume. The combined issuance scale of national bonds and local bonds exceeded 400 billion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and financial bonds exceeded 80 billion yuan, indicating active financing demand from enterprises and financial institutions. The supply pressure at the beginning of the year was released in advance, with the planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter exceeding 2 trillion yuan [7]. - This week, the central bank's open - market operations saw a large - scale net withdrawal. Due to the concentrated maturity of 7 - day and 14 - day reverse repurchases around the New Year, the net withdrawal of funds in a single week reached 1.655 trillion yuan, a two - year high. This reflects the central bank's "precise regulation" thinking. The long - term yield rose rapidly. However, on January 9th, the central bank conducted 3.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection, and the bond market sentiment recovered [7]. - The short - term funds remained stable. DR007 fluctuated narrowly around the 7 - day reverse repurchase policy rate of 1.40%, and the overnight Shibor remained stable in the 1.2% - 1.3% range, indicating sufficient market funds [7]. - The yield of interest - rate bonds completed a "rise and fall" cycle this week. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of government bonds, credit delivery data, and the central bank's reverse repurchase renewal rhythm. The long - term yield may still fluctuate, while the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose. If the equity market continues to strengthen, the bond market may face greater capital diversion pressure, and the long - term yield may rise again. If the central bank increases the net injection, the short - term stability will be enhanced, and institutional allocation demand may shift to short - term varieties [7]. - The bank system's excess reserve ratio is at a reasonable level, and the central bank's timely small - scale reverse repurchase operations have effectively smoothed out the capital fluctuations caused by the concentrated maturity of New Year's reverse repurchases. The bank system's liquidity remains relatively loose, laying a foundation for the decline in short - term interest - rate bond yields [9]. - This week, the yield of credit bonds generally declined, the market's demand for high - quality entities continued to be released, the credit spread narrowed passively, and the overall valuation center moved down. The urban investment bonds are mainly short - term (within 1 year), with intensified regional differentiation. The yields of high - quality regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang declined significantly, while provinces like Liaoning and Yunnan are still under pressure. In the industrial bond market, stable industries such as public utilities, transportation, and power performed steadily, while industries such as light manufacturing and real estate had large valuation deviations, and credit risk re - pricing should be noted. The credit bond market showed a "simultaneous rise of stocks and bonds" pattern, with fund companies as the main buyers, insurance institutions showing a net selling trend, banks' allocation and trading desks being divided, and wealth management funds continuously increasing their positions in 1 - 3 - year credit bonds [9]. - With the release of consumer loan and equipment renewal loan demand driven by the new round of trade - in programs and the return of enterprise and household deposits promoted by fiscal spending, the stability of the bank's liability side has been improved, and the expectations of credit expansion and economic recovery have been strengthened. With the support of the central bank's reverse repurchase and MLF tools, the short - term yield may remain in a low - level shock, while the long - term yield may be suppressed by economic recovery expectations, and the interest - rate curve may continue to show a "bullish steepening" pattern [9]. - In November 2025, 500 billion yuan of local special bond balance limits were issued, driving government - funded expenditures from negative to positive. The market expects that fiscal stimulus in 2026 will be significantly advanced, especially in the first half of the year. The expected issuance scale of local government special bonds in 2026 is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the expected issuance scale of special national bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Issuance - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1294.537 billion yuan, with government bonds and credit bonds jointly driving the increase. The combined issuance of national bonds and local bonds exceeded 400 billion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, short - term financing bills, and financial bonds exceeded 80 billion yuan. The planned issuance of local bonds in the first quarter exceeds 2 trillion yuan [7]. 3.2 Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net withdrawal of 1.655 trillion yuan due to the concentrated maturity of reverse repurchases. On January 9th, it conducted 3.4 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, achieving a net injection [7]. 3.3 Yield Trends - The yield of interest - rate bonds completed a "rise and fall" cycle this week. The long - term yield may still fluctuate, while the short - term liquidity is expected to remain loose [7]. - The yield of credit bonds generally declined this week, and the credit spread narrowed passively. Urban investment bonds showed regional differentiation, and industrial bonds in different industries had different performances [9]. 3.4 Market Participants' Behavior - Bank system liquidity is relatively loose, providing a stable capital environment for bond issuance and institutional allocation [9]. - In the credit bond market, fund companies are the main buyers, insurance institutions are net sellers, banks' allocation and trading desks are divided, and wealth management funds are increasing their positions in 1 - 3 - year credit bonds [9]. 3.5 Fiscal Policy Expectations - In 2026, fiscal stimulus is expected to be significantly advanced, especially in the first half of the year. The expected issuance scale of local government special bonds is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the expected issuance scale of special national bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. 3.6 Other Market Indicators - Multiple charts show data on bond market prices, yields, interest rates, and liquidity, including the prices of national bond futures, the basis of national bond futures, the implied interest rate of national bond futures, various bond yields, inter - bank repurchase rates, inter - bank lending rates, loan rates, and market liquidity indicators [10][14][16]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Production profits are poor, but the cost side provides support. The output is significantly higher than the same period last year, leading to significant pressure on the supply side. The overall downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level, and due to the seasonal off - peak season, demand remains weak. Technically, with positive macro - sentiment, the polyolefin prices may continue to rise [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 400,000 tons and may increase. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 450,000 tons and may decrease as spot offers rise and some downstream rigid purchases occur [9]. - **Supply**: Newly planned maintenance of plants such as Guangdong Petrochemical and Lanzhou Petrochemical, along with the non - restart of previously maintained plants, is expected to reduce the next - period total polyethylene output to 682,100 tons, a decrease of 4,700 tons from the current period. The estimated total polypropylene output is 774,000 tons, showing a narrow decrease and continuing the downward trend [9]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly increased, with some rigid consumption in food composite films, daily chemical packaging bags, and barrier films. After the festival, the market consumes with orders, and there may be an increase in the operating rate in some fields in the middle of the month considering downstream inventory preparation. For polypropylene products, orders in various industries have decreased, causing the average industry operating rate to decline [9]. - **Industrial Chain Profits**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP have narrowed, while the loss of PDH - based PP remains large, and the cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 Views and Strategies - **View**: The polyolefin market maintains a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. With positive macro - sentiment, the price center of polyolefins may continue to move up [11]. - **Futures and Options Strategies**: Go long with a light position and buy call options [11]. 3.3 PP Single - side Strategy - **Strategy**: Short PP. - **Price and Trend**: The price has rebounded from the bottom, reaching 6,484 as of January 8th. - **Logic**: The new PP production capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. - **Operation Suggestion**: Wait and see for now [14]. 3.4 Supply - side - **PE Output**: There are data on PE weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. Plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [70][91][99]. - **PP Output**: There are data on PP weekly output, weekly operating rate, and maintenance loss volume. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase from 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, and the actual production volume may be about half considering the poor production profits [77][97][101]. - **Imports**: There are data on PE and PP import volumes [84]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Downstream Operating Rates**: There are data on the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, including sub - industries such as agricultural film, packaging film, plastic weaving, and BOPP [106]. - **Exports**: There are data on PE and PP export volumes [127]. - **Plastic Products**: There are data on plastic product output, rubber and plastic products industry inventory, automobile and home appliance production year - on - year, home appliance export volume, domestic automobile production, and Chinese automobile exports [129].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PTA周报 供需预期改善推动聚酯链走高 20260111 黎照锋 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0210135 交易咨询号：Z0000088 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 上游：目前油价仍在五年低点附近，美国对委内瑞拉控制力增强，中期有利于委石油供应增加；油价相对低迷但货币贬值之下 仍将为油价带来支撑，而且欧美对燃油车的限制边际放宽。当前PX利润良好，开工处于高位，PX库存低位，延续偏紧格局。 ◆ 供应：根据投产计划，PX和PTA供需基本面向好，PX明年上半年没有新产能计划投产，PTA明年没有新产能计划投产 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand of crude oil still tends to be in surplus, with global oil inventories at a high level. Attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, etc. Technically, it shows a range - bound pattern, and the rebound space is expected to be limited. Futures should be treated bearishly in the medium - to - long - term, and long call options can be bought for protection. The resistance level of the SC2603 contract is around 440 - 450 yuan/barrel [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - OPEC+ crude oil production in November was 43.065 million barrels per day, an increase of 2.42 million barrels per day compared to the beginning of the year. OPEC's crude oil production was 28.48 million barrels per day, up 1.765 million barrels per day from the start of the year. Saudi Arabia's production was 10.053 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day. OPEC decided to suspend the production increase plan in the first three months of 2026 due to seasonal factors. US crude oil production exceeded 13.8 million barrels per day, remaining at a high level [8][34]. - As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 82. The number of US rigs was 546, down 3 month - on - month and 43 year - on - year [28]. - China's crude oil production in November was 17.627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The cumulative production from January to November was 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2% [52]. 2. Demand - The IEA monthly report raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2025 from 710,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day, and expected the growth to slow in the fourth quarter. It also raised the 2026 forecast from 699,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply in 2026 will exceed demand by 4.09 million barrels per day (previously forecasted as 3.97 million barrels per day). The EIA short - term energy outlook report expected global crude oil consumption in 2025 to be 104.1 million barrels per day (previously 104 million barrels per day) and 105.2 million barrels per day in 2026 (previously 105.1 million barrels per day). OPEC changed its estimate of the global oil market from a deficit to a surplus due to higher - than - expected US production and increased OPEC supply [8]. - According to EIA data, global crude oil demand in November was 104.8 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.43% and a year - on - year increase of 1.10% [58]. - As of the week ending January 2, the US refinery utilization rate was 94.7%, flat month - on - month and 1.4 percentage points higher year - on - year, at a seasonal high. China's refinery utilization rate was 70.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.45 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 0.26 percentage points. Domestic major refinery utilization rates rebounded and were at a moderately high level, while independent refinery utilization rates decreased slightly [60][65]. - China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December 2025 was 162.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07%, at the lowest level in recent years. Cumulative gasoline exports from January to November were 7.6775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Cumulative diesel production from January to December 2025 was 209.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.55%. Cumulative diesel exports from January to November were 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.28%. Cumulative kerosene production from January to December 2025 was 61.6166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. Cumulative kerosene exports from January to November were 19.5845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.56% [70][75][79]. - China's cumulative automobile production from January to November was 31.19 million, a year - on - year increase of 11.79%. Among them, the cumulative production of new energy vehicles was 14.87 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.94%. The rapid development of China's new energy vehicle industry since 2020 has had a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [83]. 3. Inventory - According to the OPEC monthly report, OECD commercial oil inventories in October decreased by 32 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil inventories increasing by 12.9 million barrels and refined oil inventories decreasing by 44.9 million barrels), 62.7 million barrels higher than the same period last year but 12.4 million barrels lower than the five - year average. There has been an upward inventory accumulation trend this year, approaching the five - year average. Global in - transit crude oil inventories have declined from their highs but remain at a high level [89]. - As of the week ending January 2, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 38,300 barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventories increased by 7,300 barrels. US EIA gasoline inventories increased by 7.7 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 5.59 million barrels. With the high refinery utilization rate in the US, gasoline and diesel inventories continued to accumulate [91][95]. - China's port crude oil inventories increased slightly last week and were at a relatively high level in most years except 2020. Exchange warehouse receipt inventories remained stable at a low level [99]. 4. Market - Last week, international crude oil prices fluctuated at a low level, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in recent years. Domestic SC crude oil prices mainly followed the trend of international crude oil. The B - W spread rebounded slightly last week and was higher year - on - year. The SC - Oman spread continued to weaken and was lower year - on - year [17][21][24].