交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 2月回笼现金9 5 3 8亿元 20250316 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 2月社融增量为2.23万亿元，同比多增7374亿元，社融增速为8.2%，较上月提高0.2个百分点。新增人民币贷款1.01万亿元，同比少增4400亿 元，各项贷款增速较上月回落0.2个百分点至7.3%。 政府债支撑社融回升：2月政府债券净融资额同比多增约1.1万亿元，政府债券余额同比增长18.1%至83.47万亿元，占社融规模存量的20%， 较上月占比提高。2月用于化解地方债务的置换债券发行近8000亿元，超过去年全年的三分之一，有助于各地纾解资金链条，减轻经济包袱， 支持地方腾出更多资金用于保障民生、支持创新等，增强经济发展的内生动能，也增大了未来信贷增长的潜能。 企业信贷需求不足：企业短贷、中长贷同比分别少增2000亿元、7500亿元，是2月新增 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 央行再度增持黄金 贸易顺差创新高 20250309 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 月度观点 截至2025年2月末，我国黄金储备量达到7361万盎司，相较于1月末的7345万盎司，增长了16万盎司。值得注意的是，央行已连续四个月稳步 扩大黄金储备规模。展望后续，鉴于我国国际储备体系中黄金储备占比相对较低，预计央行将持续增持黄金，这仍会是未来一段时间内的重 要趋势。 截至2025年2月末，我国外汇储备规模达32272亿美元，较1月末增加182亿美元，升幅为0.57%。主要经济体宏观政策调整、经济数据表现， 以及主要央行货币政策预期等多重因素交织影响，致使美元指数出现下跌，全球金融资产价格呈现涨跌不一的态势。在汇率折算及资产价格 波动等综合因素的作用下，当月外汇储备规模实现上升。我国经济具备坚实基础、多元优势、强大韧性与巨大潜能，这些积极因素 ...

交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 20250302 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观月报 建筑业景气度回暖 2025年2月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为50.2%，比上月增长1.1%，制造业景气水平明显回升。 具体而言，生产指数攀升至52.5%，较上月大幅上升2.7个百分点；新订单指数达到51.1%，较上月上升1.9个百分点，二者均升至扩张区间， 彰显出制造业产需状况得到明显改善。从行业维度来看，有色金属冶炼及压延加工、通用设备、电气机械器材等行业表现强劲，其生产指数 和新订单指数均处于54.0%及以上的较高水平，产需释放极为迅速。然而，纺织服装服饰、石油煤炭及其他燃料加工等行业的表现则不尽人 意，两个指数均低于临界点，行业供需呈现偏弱态势。纺织服装服饰行业受市场需求变化、成本上升以及竞争加剧等多重因素影响，市场需 求增长乏力；石油煤炭及其他燃料加工行业则可能因能源结构调整、环保政策等因素，面临着一定的发展压力。 主要原材料购进价格指数为50.8%，较上月上升1.3个百分点，表明制造业原材料采购价格总体水平 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 社融统计口径变化 20250216 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 国民经济核算 GDP同比 图：实际GDP同比（%） | | 2022年9月 | 2022年12月 | 2023年3月 | 2023年6月 | 2023年9月 | 2023年12月 | 2024年3月 | 2024年6月 | 2024年9月 | 2024年12月 | 近五年当季同比走势 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | GDP季度同比 | 4 | 3 | 4.7 | 6.5 | 5 | 5.3 | 5.3 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 5.4 | | | 农林牧渔业 | 3.7 | 4.2 | 3.8 | 4 | 4.3 | 4.3 | 3.5 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 央行再度增持黄金 美非农数据疲软 20250209 研究助理：石舒宇 从业资格号：F03117664 0769-22116880 作者：黄秀仕 交易咨询号：Z0018307 从业资格号：F03106904 0769-22110802 审核：黎照锋交易咨询号：Z0000088 周度观点及策略 周度观点 2025年1月份，春节效应影响下，全国居民消费价格同比上涨0.5%，环比上涨0.7%。 食品烟酒类价格同比上涨0.6%，影响CPI上涨约0.16个百分点。食品中，畜肉类价格上涨2.5%，影响CPI上涨约0.08个百分点，其中猪肉价格 上涨13.8%，影响CPI上涨约0.17个百分点；鲜菜价格上涨2.4%，影响CPI上涨约0.05个百分点；粮食价格下降1.4%，影响CPI下降约0.03个百 分点。其他用品及服务、教育文化娱乐、衣着价格分别上涨5.4%、1.7%和1.1%，医疗保健、居住价格分别上涨0.7%和0.1%；生活用品及服务、 交通通信价格分别下降1.1%和0.6%。 2025年1月份，全国工业生产者出厂价格同比下降2.3%，降幅与上月相同， ...

Economic Growth - In December, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with 34 out of 41 major industries showing growth[4] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 17.7% in December, while new energy vehicles surged by 43.2%[4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,217.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 3.2% compared to the previous year[6] Currency and Trade - On January 24, 2025, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate rose significantly, reaching a peak of 7.2370, an increase of 462 points from the previous trading day[5] - China's exports in December 2024 increased by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports grew by 1.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of 104.84 billion USD, up 40.3%[5] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced the issuance of 60 billion yuan in central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity[5] - The total social financing scale for 2024 was 32.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.32 trillion yuan from the previous year[6] Real Estate Sector - In 2024, national real estate development investment fell by 10.6% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 10.5%[6] - The new construction area of commercial housing decreased by 12.9% in 2024, with residential sales area declining by 14.1%[6]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 13,490.84 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year[3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, 4.6% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4[3] - The industrial value added for 2024 increased by 5.8% compared to the previous year[3] Trade and Exports - In December 2024, China's exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year, up from 6.7% in the previous month, indicating a "grab export" effect[3] - The trade surplus for December 2024 was $10.484 billion, a 40.3% increase year-on-year[3] - For the entire year, exports increased by 5.9% while imports rose by 1.1%[3] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment in 2024 was 514,374 billion yuan, a 3.2% increase from the previous year[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.6% in 2024, with residential investment down by 10.5%[4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding utilities) grew by 4.4%, with water management investment up by 41.7%[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales for 2024 totaled 487,895 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-on-year[4] - In December 2024, retail sales reached 45,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year[4] - The sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 12.3% in 2024, indicating strong demand in basic and upgraded consumer goods[4]

展望 2025 年，随着宏观经济的持续复苏，整体经济环境不断向好，居民收入水平将稳步增长，这无疑会为住房消费升级提供坚实的支撑。 房地产市场有望在调整中逐步趋稳，一线城市核心地段高端住宅需求有望提升，带动价格温和上涨，成交量或因政策优化而小幅回暖。新一 线城市在产业发展带动下，房地产市场将更注重品质与配套，价格逐渐企稳，成交量有望保持稳定增长。三四线城市则需加快产业导入与人 口集聚，以消化库存为首要任务，房价止跌企稳后，市场交易逐步恢复正常节奏。 年度观点 2024年中国进出口保持稳定增长态势。据海关统计，前11个月，中国货物贸易进出口总值达39.79万亿元人民币，同比增长4.9%。其中，出 口额为23.04万亿元，同比增长6.7%；进口额为16.75万亿元，同比增长2.4%。从贸易方式来看，一般贸易和加工贸易均呈现增长态势，一般 贸易进出口额为25.5万亿元，增长3.7%，加工贸易进出口额为7.22万亿元，同比增长3.6%。出口结构上，以电动汽车、光伏产品和锂电池为 代表的 "新三样" 成为出口新增长点。机电产品出口额占出口总值的近6成，达到13.7万亿元，同比增长8.4%。其中，自动数据处理设备 及其零部 ...

Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference have indicated that China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2024, aligning with previous supportive monetary policy stances[5] - Market expectations for a loose monetary policy have risen, leading to a rapid decline in long-term interest rates, with the 30-year government bond yield dipping below 2%[5] Economic Indicators - In November 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while it fell by 0.6% month-on-month; the average CPI increase from January to November was 0.3% compared to the previous year[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] Credit and Financing - In November, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 945 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan[9] - Total social financing (TSF) for November was 2.34 trillion yuan, also below the expected 2.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.197 trillion yuan[9] Trade Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year to $312.31 billion, while imports fell by 3.9% to $214.87 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[11]

Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, the largest gain since April, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, matching the highest level since August, with 7.1 million unemployed[6] - The manufacturing PMI for November was 50.3%, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing activity[6] Real Estate Market - In November, over 10 cities in China saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions, reflecting a recovery trend in the real estate market[5] - Some cities, including Hangzhou and Guangzhou, raised the commercial loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers to maintain a reasonable gap with public housing loan rates[5] Inflation and Prices - The producer price index (PPI) for November was 47.7%, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous month, indicating a decline in factory gate prices[6] - The purchasing price index for raw materials was 49.8%, down 3.6% from the previous month, suggesting a decrease in input costs for manufacturers[6] GDP Growth - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, with industrial growth contributing significantly to the overall economic performance[9] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth was 33.37% in June 2022, showing a strong influence on economic expansion[11]