Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly increase of 2%. On May 16, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 265,500 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In April, refined tin production increased slightly month - on - month, and tin ore imports from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% annual decrease [11]. - Demand recovered in March. The expansion of support for consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. Although trade disputes in April affected demand, recent improvements in macro - trade disputes led to continuous marginal improvements in supply and demand [11]. - With the mine end remaining tight and processing fees weak, profits will stay low under the background of mine - end interference [11]. - LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories increased slightly, which is unfavorable for inventory reduction [11]. - Considering the improvement in macro - trade disputes but the instability at the mine end, and the price having mostly reflected the supply - demand and macro - improvement expectations, short - term long positions are recommended. The weekly reference range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **Price Trend**: Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly last week with a 2% increase. Spot price on May 16, 2025, was 265,500 yuan/ton, with small futures price fluctuations and stable basis [11]. - **Supply**: April refined tin production increased slightly month - on - month. January - March 2025 tin ore imports dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut production guidance to 17,500 tons [11]. - **Demand**: Recovered in March. Support for consumer goods replacement and AI breakthroughs boosted demand. Trade disputes in April affected demand, but recent improvements led to marginal supply - demand improvements [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: Mine end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME and SHFE inventories decreased slightly week - on - week, while social inventories increased slightly [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term long positions. Weekly reference range is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis charts, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 15, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,163 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 14, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,745 tons, also a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 9, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 10,201 tons, a slight week - on - week increase [26][29]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 15, 2025, Yunnan's concentrate processing fee was 11,000 yuan/ton, and Guangxi's was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [33]. 3.6 Supply - In April 2025, refined tin production was 14,712 tons, a slight month - on - month increase. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease. In April 2025, tin enterprise capacity utilization was about 63.16%, a slight increase [37][41]. - New projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 - 2026 [42]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%. Electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease. Mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4% [48][52]. - In March 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%. Refrigerator production was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%. Washing machine production was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%. Color TV production was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4% [55][58]. - In March 2025, China's solar energy production was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%. Integrated circuit production was 41.971999 billion pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [61]. 3.8 Import and Export - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842, 8,745, and 8,322.5 tons respectively, imported tin of 2,334, 1,869, and 2,100 tons respectively, and exported refined tin of 2,131, 2,373, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [65]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The global tin supply - demand balance shows that from 2017 - 2025E, there have been periods of surplus and deficit. In 2025E, the global supply is expected to be 36.95 million tons, and the demand is expected to be 37.9 million tons, with a deficit of 0.95 million tons [67].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 贸易争端降温 期价震荡反弹 20250519 作者：姜世东 交易咨询号：Z0020059 从业资格号：F03126164 0769-22110802 审核：孙伟涛 交易咨询号：Z0014688 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 周度观点及策略 周度观点 u 宏观：中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明：降低或取消相关关税。国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自5月14日12时01分起，调整对原产于美国 的进口商品加征关税措施。美国调整对华加征关税，于美东时间5月14日凌晨0时01分，撤销对中国商品加征的共计91%的关税，调整实施34% 的对等关税措施，其中24%的关税暂停加征90天。央行发布数据显示，4月末，我国社会融资规模存量同比增长8.7%，M2余额同比增长8%，较 上月增速加快。 u 供应：镍矿方面，2025年RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，但印尼镍矿RKAB审批额度能否如期放量仍存不确定性，政策扰动风 险仍在；4月份中国镍铁小幅减少；印尼镍铁保持高位；硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍企业开工 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the Shanghai tin market fluctuated slightly with a weekly decline of 0.29%. On May 9, 2025, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 260,000 yuan/ton, with small fluctuations in futures prices and little change in basis [11]. - In March, refined tin production rebounded, while imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease from the previous guidance [11]. - Demand recovered in March. Policies supporting consumer goods replacement and AI technological breakthroughs strongly supported tin demand. However, trade disputes in the second quarter affected demand. Currently, macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy fluctuations due to trade disputes cause significant swings in demand expectations [11]. - The ore end remains tight, and processing fees are weak. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of ore - end disturbances [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Due to the repeated macro - trade dispute policies causing large fluctuations in demand expectations and the short - term recovery of the ore end putting pressure on prices (which has already been reflected in prices), short - term trading is recommended for now. The weekly reference range is 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances in Myanmar and Congo mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai tin market had a small - scale shock last week, with a 0.29% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin on May 9, 2025, was 260,000 yuan/ton, and the basis changed little [11]. - **Supply**: Refined tin production increased in March, and imports of tin ore from January to March 2025 decreased significantly year - on - year. Alphamin cut its production guidance [11]. - **Demand**: Demand recovered in March but was affected by trade disputes in the second quarter. Macro - demand expectations dominate the market, and policy changes lead to large fluctuations in demand expectations. The central bank introduced ten policy measures [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The ore end is tight, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly, SHFE inventory decreased slightly, and social inventory decreased week - on - week [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term trading is recommended for now, with a weekly reference range of 245,000 - 268,000 yuan/ton. Later, focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. - **Influence Factors**: Production has a bearish impact as the ore - end supply eases; downstream demand is bearish due to trade - affected demand expectations; inventory is neutral as it is being depleted; imports and exports are bullish as net exports are stable; market sentiment and cost - profit are neutral; the macro situation is neutral with no new policies [12]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The report mentions the tin industrial chain, but no detailed content is provided [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - The report shows graphs of SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no in - depth analysis is given [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of May 8, 2025, SHFE inventory was 8,334 tons, a slight week - on - week decrease. As of May 7, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,755 tons, a slight week - on - week increase. As of May 2, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 9,782 tons, a week - on - week decrease [27][31]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of May 8, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees remained weak [35]. 3.6 Supply - **Production**: In March 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, an increase after the Spring Festival. Domestic tin ore production in February was 4,926.35 tons, a seasonal decrease [39]. - **Capacity Utilization**: In March 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, a slight increase [43]. - **New Capacity**: New tin - mining projects in China, Namibia, Peru, Australia, Morocco, and Myanmar are expected to be put into production from 2024 to 2026, with a total planned capacity of 37,400 tons/year [45]. 3.7 Demand - In March 2025, China's automobile production was 3.0445 million units, a year - on - year increase of 8.4%; electronic computer production was 50.194 million units, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%; PVC production in April 2025 was 1.955 million tons, a month - on - month decrease; mobile electronic communication production in March 2025 was 136.7933 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%; air - conditioner production in March 2025 was 33.7118 million units, a year - on - year increase of 11.9%; refrigerator production in March 2025 was 9.3835 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.3%; washing - machine production in March 2025 was 11.0021 million units, a year - on - year increase of 16.5%; color TV production in March 2025 was 17.932 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; solar - cell production in March 2025 was 78.444 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 23.6%; integrated - circuit production in March 2025 was 419.71999 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [51][55][58][61][64]. 3.8 Imports and Exports - From January to March 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, and 8,322.5 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, and 2,100 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, and 1,714.6 tons respectively [68]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - The table shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 to 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance. In 2025E, the global supply - demand balance is - 0.95 million tons [70].

审核：孙伟涛 交易咨询号：Z0014688 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 6 需求端 7 库存端 5 中间品 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货镍周报 贸易争端反复 期价震荡反弹 20250512 作者：姜世东 交易咨询号：Z0020059 从业资格号：F03126164 0769-22110802 周度观点及策略 周度观点 u 宏观：据海关统计，2025年前4个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值14.14万亿元人民币，同比（下同）增长2.4%。其中，出口8.39万亿元，增长 7.5%；进口5.75万亿元，下降4.2%。央行宣布推出十项政策措施，其中包括全面降准0.5个百分点，下调政策利率0.1个百分点，降低结构性 货币政策工具利率和公积金贷款利率0.25个百分点，设立5000亿元"服务消费与养老再贷款"等。 u 供应：镍矿方面，2025年RKAB审批额度为冶炼厂提供了充足的原料保障，但印尼镍矿RKAB审批额度能否如期放量仍存不确定性，政策扰动风 险仍在；4月份中国镍铁小幅减少；印尼镍铁保持高位回落；硫酸镍方面，硫酸镍企业开工率小幅增加，3月份产量环比小幅增加， ...

1 主要观点 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 观点 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货橡胶周报 ——宏观需求收缩预期强烈 20250420 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 u 宏观：特朗普关税讹诈之下市场忧虑深度衰退。贸易战程度虽然难以预料，但总体利空全球经济已不能避免，而且我国地产周期下行。 年初房地产数据差于预期，对市场情绪造成打击；政治局和政府工作报告要求稳住股市和楼市，但房地产方面要求严控增量而且周期较长， 预料实物工作量持续受限。 u 供应：对于2025年的产量，虽然大周期产能拐点已经到来，但惯性仍在；从天气预期来看，历史上厄尔尼诺后如果次年拉尼娜，那再下 一年增产的概率较大（2017和2021均大幅增产），从国家气候中心获悉，最新海温监测结果显示，赤道中东太平洋海温已进入弱拉尼娜状 态。预测显示，拉尼娜状态将维持到春季中后期；但是，这种统计上的增产也有可能归因于价格高企之后的生产积极性激励，因为厄尔尼 诺后通常导致生产问题从而价格走高，2024年就是 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In Q1 2025, China's GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year at constant prices, with a 1.2% quarter-on-quarter increase compared to Q4 2024. The added value of the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries increased by 3.5%, 5.9%, and 5.3% respectively [4]. - The added value of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 6.5% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, it increased by 7.7% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.8 percentage points compared to January - February [4]. - The added value of the service industry increased by 5.3% year-on-year in Q1 2025, accelerating by 0.3 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, the service industry production index increased by 6.3% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.7 percentage points compared to January - February [4]. - In Q1 2025, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.2% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.0 percentage point compared to the whole of last year. Excluding real estate development investment, it increased by 8.3% [4]. - In Q1 2025, total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.6% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.1 percentage points compared to the whole of last year. In March, it increased by 5.9% year-on-year, accelerating by 1.9 percentage points compared to January - February [5]. - In Q1 2025, the national surveyed urban unemployment rate averaged 5.3%. In March, it was 5.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from the previous month [5]. - In Q1 2025, the per capita disposable income of national residents was 12,179 yuan, a nominal increase of 5.5% year-on-year, and a real increase of 5.6% after deducting price factors [5]. - In Q1 2025, the total volume of goods imports and exports was 10.3013 trillion yuan, a 1.3% year-on-year increase. Exports were 6.1314 trillion yuan, a 6.9% increase, while imports were 4.17 trillion yuan, a 6.0% decrease [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly growth rates from 2022 - 2025 are presented, showing trends in different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, construction, and services [7]. - Contribution rates of different industries to GDP growth are provided, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, construction, and various service - related sectors [13]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The added value of large - scale industrial enterprises showed different growth rates in different industries and time periods. For example, in March 2025, it increased by 7.7% year-on-year [4][21]. - Different industries such as coal mining, oil and gas extraction, and农副食品 processing had varying year-on-year growth rates of added value in different months [21]. Main Output of Large - Scale Industry - Output data of various industrial products from 2024 - 2025 are presented, including energy products (e.g., crude oil, coal), industrial raw materials (e.g., ethylene, chemical fiber), and finished products (e.g., automobiles, smartphones) [23]. Industry Electricity Consumption - Electricity consumption growth rates of different industries from 2023 - 2024 are provided, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, mining, and manufacturing [31]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - In January - February 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 910.99 billion yuan, a 0.3% year-on-year decrease. Different industries had different profit growth or decline situations [34]. - The profit situation of different industrial categories (mining, manufacturing, and production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water) in January - February 2025 is presented, with mining showing a decline, manufacturing an increase, and the production and supply of electricity, heat, gas, and water a significant increase [38]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of February 2025, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises was 6.37 trillion yuan, a 4.2% increase, with an improvement in the inventory situation compared to December last year [43]. - Inventory data of large - scale industrial enterprises in different industries and time periods from 2024 - 2025 are provided, showing trends in different industrial chains [45]. Price Index CPI - In March 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month. Different categories of consumer goods had different price changes [48]. - CPI data of different consumer goods categories from 2024 - 2025 are presented, including food, clothing, housing, and transportation [49]. PPI - In March 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.4% month-on-month, with different price changes in production and living materials [55]. - PPI data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are provided, such as mining, raw materials, and processing industries [55][58]. Real Estate - Data on the price indices (year - on - year and month - on - month) of newly built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities from 2015 - 2025 are presented, showing different trends in first - tier, second - tier, and third - tier cities [62][64].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 市场情绪平复，基本面支撑油价 20250420 黄秀仕 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：美国上周商业原油库存增加，尽管原油出口量大幅增加，而馏分油和汽油库存下降。当周美国商业原油库存增加51.5万桶，至4.429亿桶，此前市场预期为增 加50.7万桶。美国战略石油储备(SPR)增加30万桶，至3.970亿桶。美国汽油库存减少200万桶，至2.34亿桶，此前市场预期为减少160万桶。美国当周包括柴油和取 暖油的馏分油库存减少190万桶，至1.092亿桶，为自2023年11月以来的最低水平，此前市场预期为减少120万桶。当周美国库欣的原油库存减少654,000桶。美国原 油净进口量减少204.5万桶/日，至90.1万桶/日，四周均值为200.4万桶/日。 ◆ 供应：关税政策对供应端影响较小，中国减少美国原油进口可能促使中东、俄罗斯等产油国填补市场空缺，改变国际原油供需格局。上周美国原油产量维持不变在 1350万桶/日水平，比去年同期增长30万桶/日。根据OPEC+最新补偿计划，从4月到2026年6月期间减产30.48万桶/日，每月减产量将从1 ...

交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 审核：黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 需求分化 成本支撑减弱 20250420 黄桂仁 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率77.35%，环比增加0.68个百分点，同比增加4.17个百分点，处在同期中性位。主要 是乙烯法装置开工率上升，预计本周供应仍将小幅增加。 需求：上周下游制品综合开工率小幅走低。主要是硬制品开工率维持低位，地板类企业受关税影响出口，软 制品开工尚可。 库存：上周社会库存（41 家）72.52万吨，环比降低3.74%，同比降低16.95%。企业库存41.12万吨，环比降 低8.97%，同比增加4.60%。厂库社库均有去库，但总体看库存仍有压力。 观点：电石价格周度环比大幅回落，乙烯价格偏弱，成本驱动偏空。总体看短中期供需两弱，盘面空头趋势 暂未改变，但仍受外围影响波动。 策略：操作方面稳健型暂观望，激进型少量空单持有，可持有虚值看涨期权保护，2509合约压力参考5150- 5200。 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 产业链结构 期现 ...

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures PTA Weekly Report: Demand Affected by Tariff War, Cost Drivers Strengthening" [2] - Report Date: 20250420 [2] - Researcher: Huang Guiren [2] Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Crude oil has rebounded in the short - term, and cost drivers have strengthened. Overall, supply is at a high level, there is differentiation among different product lines on the demand side, and inventory is shifting downstream. Attention should be paid to the development of external tariff issues [6]. Summary by Section 1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - Operation strategy: Aggressive investors should hold short positions lightly. For options, use a small number of call options for hedging. The resistance level of the 2509 contract is around 4450 [5]. 2. Supply - Last week, the average weekly PTA capacity utilization rate was 76.74%, a decrease of 1.25 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 4.97 percentage points year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. Sichuan Energy Investment carried out scheduled maintenance, and there were few changes in other devices. This week, Fujian Baihong is expected to restart, and production may increase [6][20]. - Last week, PTA production was 133.85 tons, a decrease of 1.7% from the previous week and an increase of 8.68% year - on - year. From January to February 2025, China's cumulative PTA imports were 0.52 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30%. As domestic self - sufficiency rate gradually increases, imports are further reduced and can be basically ignored [24]. 3. Demand - In March 2025, the actual PTA consumption was 6.0177 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.62% and a year - on - year increase of 9.30%. Last week, the average polyester operating rate was 91.09%, a decrease of 0.22 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 0.42 percentage points year - on - year, generally at a relatively high level in the same period [28]. - Last week, the weekly polyester industry output was 1.5588 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 19.22%. As of April 17, the comprehensive operating rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 55.94%, a decrease of 2.31 percentage points from the previous week and a decrease of 16.55 percentage points year - on - year. Terminal textiles are significantly affected by tariff issues, new orders are limited, and market transaction pressure has increased [30]. 4. Inventory - According to Longzhong Information, last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 4.4583 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.91%. The PTA factory inventory was 4.36 days, an increase of 0.04 days from the previous week and a decrease of 0.95 days year - on - year [52]. - Last week, the PTA raw material inventory of polyester factories was 9.4 days, a decrease of 0.85 days from the previous week and an increase of 1.47 days year - on - year [53]. 5. Futures Market - Last week, the 1 - 5 spread weakened and was higher than the same period last year. The 5 - 9 spread increased slightly from the previous week and was stronger than the same period last year. The overall futures monthly spread showed a slight premium pattern with near - term prices lower and far - term prices higher [13]. - The 9 - 1 spread weakened from the previous week and was lower than the same period last year. The basis increased from the previous week and was stronger than the same period last year [16]. 6. Valuation - PX prices declined. PTA spot processing fees weakened from the previous week and were higher than the same period last year. The futures disk processing fees remained stable from the previous week and were the same as the same period last year [70][74][80].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In Q1 2025, the PVC futures market showed a downward - oscillating trend with a narrowing decline. The cost - driven force was insufficient due to the continuous decline in coal prices and the low position of calcium carbide prices. Although the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali was acceptable, it was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. The report suggests continuing to focus on the implementation of domestic macro - stimulus policies, the rhythm of demand recovery, and the speed of inventory depletion. The mid - term trend is expected to be weakly oscillating, and the 2509 contract should pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark. If there are further policies exceeding expectations and the building materials sector improves, there may be opportunities for bargain - hunting [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Quarter - View and Strategy - **Market Review**: In Q1, the PVC futures market oscillated downward. In January, it oscillated widely due to multiple factors; in February, it oscillated narrowly due to inventory accumulation and weak supply - demand; in March, it weakened again due to the under - expected demand recovery and the weakness of the black building materials sector [5]. - **Supply**: The PVC plant operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points. The overall output increased slightly. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance and the rhythm of new production capacity [5]. - **Demand**: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest. The real estate was in a weak recovery rhythm and was difficult to effectively drive domestic demand. Overseas, attention should be paid to the impact of India's anti - dumping on PVC powder exports [5]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 80.53 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%, and the enterprise inventory was 44.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The overall inventory was in the depletion process, but the absolute quantity was still at a relatively high level [5]. - **Viewpoint**: The cost - driven force was insufficient. It was difficult to have a negative feedback on the PVC operating rate from the profit side. Continue to focus on domestic macro - stimulus policies, demand recovery, and inventory depletion [5]. - **Strategy**: Treat it as weakly oscillating in the mid - term. Pay attention to the support around the 5000 integer mark for the 2509 contract. There may be bargain - hunting opportunities if there are further policies exceeding expectations [5]. 3.2 Futures - Spot Market - **PVC Contract Spreads**: In Q1, the 1 - 5 spread declined slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread also narrowed slightly. The overall futures monthly spread structure maintained a contango pattern, indicating that the reality was weaker than expected. The 9 - 1 spread was narrowly sorted, and the negative basis of the main contract narrowed slightly [12][13]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Capacity and Output**: As of now, the effective PVC production capacity is 27.82 million tons. From January to February 2025, the cumulative domestic PVC output was 3.973 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.79%. The effective production capacity of calcium carbide - based PVC was 20.15 million tons, accounting for about 72.4%, and the cumulative output from January to February was 2.9452 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.53%. The effective production capacity of ethylene - based PVC was 7.67 million tons, accounting for about 27.6%, and the output from January to February was 1.0278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.52% [16][19][22]. - **Operating Rate and Maintenance**: The PVC operating rate first increased and then decreased in Q1, with an end - of - quarter rate of 79.81%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.71 percentage points, at a neutral level in recent years. The maintenance loss first decreased and then increased, and attention should be paid to the implementation of spring maintenance. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 81.89%, a year - on - year increase of 0.3 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 74.35%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.03 percentage points, at a low level in the same period, and its operating rate fluctuated greatly [25][27]. - **Imports**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative PVC imports were 39,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.19%. The import volume of plastics and their products in China was 3.44 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.24% [30]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Apparent Consumption and Sales - to - Production Ratio**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative apparent consumption of PVC was 3.4024 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.78% [34]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rate of downstream products first decreased and then increased seasonally in Q1, with an end - of - quarter comprehensive operating rate of 48.91%, a year - on - year decrease of 3.57 percentage points, at the lowest level in history. Hard products performed the weakest, and the pipe operating rate was 47.5%, a year - on - year decrease of 2.5 percentage points. At the end of Q1, the operating rate of profile enterprises was 42.65%, a year - on - year decrease of 0.68 percentage points; the operating rate of film soft products was 70.56%, a year - on - year decrease of 6.32 percentage points [37][40]. - **Exports**: From January to February 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 610,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 85.36%, mainly sold to India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc., with over 50% exported to India. The cumulative export volume of PVC flooring was 693,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.52%, mainly sold to the United States, Canada, Germany, the Netherlands, and Australia [41][42]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure**: In January - February 2025, the national real estate development investment decreased by 9.8% year - on - year, with a narrowing decline. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate all showed year - on - year declines. With the support of "stabilizing the real estate market" policies, the real estate market may have a "small spring" in March. In terms of infrastructure, the full - caliber and narrow - caliber (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water) infrastructure investment growth rates in January - February were 10.0% and 5.6% respectively, with an increase of 3.4 percentage points and a decrease of 0.7 percentage points compared with December last year [45]. 3.5 Inventory - **Social Inventory**: The social inventory first increased and then decreased seasonally. At the end of Q1, the domestic PVC social inventory (41 companies) was 805,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.56%; the small - sample social inventory (21 companies) was 469,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 22.42% [47]. - **Enterprise Inventory**: At the end of Q1, the enterprise inventory was 440,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.01%. The PVC standard warehouse receipts decreased from the high level in Q1, and attention should be paid to the re - registration of warehouse receipts later [52]. 3.6 Valuation - **Lancoke and Calcium Carbide**: In Q1, the Lancoke price oscillated and declined to the lowest level in history, and the calcium carbide price first decreased and then increased but was still at the weakest level in the same period. The calcium carbide production profit generally recovered, which was mainly affected by power restrictions in some areas and PVC demand [56]. - **Ethylene and Vinyl Chloride**: In Q1, the ethylene price first increased and then decreased with small fluctuations, and the vinyl chloride price oscillated and declined slightly. Both were at the weakest levels in recent years [59]. - **Liquid Caustic Soda and Liquid Chlorine**: The liquid caustic soda price first increased and then decreased with large fluctuations, and the liquid chlorine price first decreased and then increased due to the disturbance of market expectations and weak reality [62]. - **PVC Profit**: In Q1, the production profit of calcium carbide - based PVC first narrowed the loss and then expanded it again, and the loss of ethylene - based PVC continued to expand. The production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali oscillated upward [65][68].