Economic Growth - In December, the industrial added value above designated size grew by 6.2% year-on-year, with 34 out of 41 major industries showing growth[4] - The automotive manufacturing industry saw a significant increase of 17.7% in December, while new energy vehicles surged by 43.2%[4] - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,217.7 billion yuan in 2024, marking a growth of 3.2% compared to the previous year[6] Currency and Trade - On January 24, 2025, the onshore RMB to USD exchange rate rose significantly, reaching a peak of 7.2370, an increase of 462 points from the previous trading day[5] - China's exports in December 2024 increased by 10.7% year-on-year, while imports grew by 1.0%, resulting in a trade surplus of 104.84 billion USD, up 40.3%[5] Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China announced the issuance of 60 billion yuan in central bank bills, tightening offshore RMB liquidity[5] - The total social financing scale for 2024 was 32.26 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.32 trillion yuan from the previous year[6] Real Estate Sector - In 2024, national real estate development investment fell by 10.6% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 10.5%[6] - The new construction area of commercial housing decreased by 12.9% in 2024, with residential sales area declining by 14.1%[6]

Economic Performance - In 2024, China's GDP reached 13,490.84 billion yuan, growing by 5.0% year-on-year[3] - The quarterly GDP growth rates were 5.3% in Q1, 4.7% in Q2, 4.6% in Q3, and 5.4% in Q4[3] - The industrial value added for 2024 increased by 5.8% compared to the previous year[3] Trade and Exports - In December 2024, China's exports grew by 10.7% year-on-year, up from 6.7% in the previous month, indicating a "grab export" effect[3] - The trade surplus for December 2024 was $10.484 billion, a 40.3% increase year-on-year[3] - For the entire year, exports increased by 5.9% while imports rose by 1.1%[3] Investment Trends - Total fixed asset investment in 2024 was 514,374 billion yuan, a 3.2% increase from the previous year[4] - Real estate development investment fell by 10.6% in 2024, with residential investment down by 10.5%[4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding utilities) grew by 4.4%, with water management investment up by 41.7%[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales for 2024 totaled 487,895 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.5% increase year-on-year[4] - In December 2024, retail sales reached 45,172 billion yuan, growing by 3.7% year-on-year[4] - The sales of household appliances and audio-visual equipment surged by 12.3% in 2024, indicating strong demand in basic and upgraded consumer goods[4]

展望 2025 年，随着宏观经济的持续复苏，整体经济环境不断向好，居民收入水平将稳步增长，这无疑会为住房消费升级提供坚实的支撑。 房地产市场有望在调整中逐步趋稳，一线城市核心地段高端住宅需求有望提升，带动价格温和上涨，成交量或因政策优化而小幅回暖。新一 线城市在产业发展带动下，房地产市场将更注重品质与配套，价格逐渐企稳，成交量有望保持稳定增长。三四线城市则需加快产业导入与人 口集聚，以消化库存为首要任务，房价止跌企稳后，市场交易逐步恢复正常节奏。 年度观点 2024年中国进出口保持稳定增长态势。据海关统计，前11个月，中国货物贸易进出口总值达39.79万亿元人民币，同比增长4.9%。其中，出 口额为23.04万亿元，同比增长6.7%；进口额为16.75万亿元，同比增长2.4%。从贸易方式来看，一般贸易和加工贸易均呈现增长态势，一般 贸易进出口额为25.5万亿元，增长3.7%，加工贸易进出口额为7.22万亿元，同比增长3.6%。出口结构上，以电动汽车、光伏产品和锂电池为 代表的 "新三样" 成为出口新增长点。机电产品出口额占出口总值的近6成，达到13.7万亿元，同比增长8.4%。其中，自动数据处理设备 及其零部 ...

Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The Central Political Bureau and the Central Economic Work Conference have indicated that China will implement a moderately loose monetary policy in 2024, aligning with previous supportive monetary policy stances[5] - Market expectations for a loose monetary policy have risen, leading to a rapid decline in long-term interest rates, with the 30-year government bond yield dipping below 2%[5] Economic Indicators - In November 2024, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while it fell by 0.6% month-on-month; the average CPI increase from January to November was 0.3% compared to the previous year[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for industrial producers decreased by 2.5% year-on-year in November, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1%[7] Credit and Financing - In November, new RMB loans amounted to 580 billion yuan, significantly below the Bloomberg consensus estimate of 945 billion yuan, and a year-on-year decrease of 510 billion yuan[9] - Total social financing (TSF) for November was 2.34 trillion yuan, also below the expected 2.59 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.197 trillion yuan[9] Trade Performance - In November, China's exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year to $312.31 billion, while imports fell by 3.9% to $214.87 billion, resulting in a trade surplus of $97.44 billion[11]

Economic Indicators - In November, the U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 227,000, the largest gain since April, exceeding the market expectation of 200,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, matching the highest level since August, with 7.1 million unemployed[6] - The manufacturing PMI for November was 50.3%, a slight increase of 0.2% from the previous month, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing activity[6] Real Estate Market - In November, over 10 cities in China saw a month-on-month increase in second-hand housing transactions, reflecting a recovery trend in the real estate market[5] - Some cities, including Hangzhou and Guangzhou, raised the commercial loan interest rates for first-time homebuyers to maintain a reasonable gap with public housing loan rates[5] Inflation and Prices - The producer price index (PPI) for November was 47.7%, a decrease of 2.2% from the previous month, indicating a decline in factory gate prices[6] - The purchasing price index for raw materials was 49.8%, down 3.6% from the previous month, suggesting a decrease in input costs for manufacturers[6] GDP Growth - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, with industrial growth contributing significantly to the overall economic performance[9] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth was 33.37% in June 2022, showing a strong influence on economic expansion[11]

Economic Performance - From January to October 2024, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached CNY 58,680.4 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%[5] - The operating income of these enterprises was CNY 110.96 trillion, with a year-on-year growth of 1.9%[5] - In October 2024, the profit of industrial enterprises fell by 10.0% year-on-year, compared to a previous decline of 27.1%[5] Sector Analysis - The mining industry reported a total profit of CNY 9,845.3 billion, down 12.7% year-on-year; the manufacturing sector's profit was CNY 42,223.1 billion, down 4.2%[5] - The electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply sector saw a profit increase of 11.5%, totaling CNY 6,612.0 billion[5] Inventory and Production - As of October 2024, the finished goods inventory of industrial enterprises was CNY 6.53 trillion, up 3.9% year-on-year[5] - The manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November 2024 was 50.3%, indicating a slight recovery in manufacturing sentiment[6] Fiscal Data - From January to October 2024, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 184,981 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%[7] - Tax revenue was CNY 150,782 billion, down 4.5%, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3% to CNY 34,199 billion[7] Consumer Trends - In October 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 45,396 billion, growing by 4.8% year-on-year, up from 3.2% previously[9] - Retail sales of home appliances surged to a year-on-year growth of 39.2%, significantly contributing to the overall retail sales growth[9]

Fiscal Performance - From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was CNY 184,981 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3%[5] - Tax revenue was CNY 150,782 billion, down 4.5% year-on-year, while non-tax revenue increased by 15.3% to CNY 34,199 billion[5] - Central government revenue was CNY 82,482 billion, a decline of 3.9%, while local government revenue increased by 0.9% to CNY 102,499 billion[5] Industrial Growth - In October, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.3% year-on-year, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41%[6] - From January to October, the industrial added value increased by 5.8% year-on-year[6] - Among 41 major industries, 35 reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in sectors like chemical manufacturing (6.9%) and automobile manufacturing (6.2%) while non-metallic mineral products saw a decline of 2.6%[6] Consumer Spending - In October, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached CNY 45,396 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, up from 3.2% in the previous month[7] - Retail sales excluding automobiles were CNY 40,944 billion, growing by 4.9% year-on-year[7] - Home appliance sales surged to a year-on-year growth of 39.2%, contributing approximately 1.8 percentage points to the overall retail sales growth[7] Economic Indicators - The GDP growth rate for the third quarter of 2023 was 4.9%, with projections for the fourth quarter at 5.3%[10] - The contribution of the industrial sector to GDP growth was 33.37% in June 2022, decreasing to 21.88% in March 2023, indicating a shift in economic dynamics[12]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货宏观周报 历史上最大规模化债 贸易顺差创阶段新高 20241110 作者：黄秀仕 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F03106904 交易咨询号：Z0018307 研究助理：石舒宇 0769-22116880 从业资格号：F03117664 审核：段福林 交易咨询号：Z0015600 在联期货 1 周度观点及策略 8 交通运输 9 银行与货币 10 利率汇率 11 就业与工资 12 景气调查 13 美国宏观 2 国民经济核算 3 工业 4 价格指数 ( 对外贸易与投资 e 固定资产投资 7 国内贸易 周度观点及策略 周度观点 11月8日下午四点，全国人大常委会办公厅举行新闻发布会，公布常委会审议通过的近年来力度最大的化债举措。而市场最关注的总体化债 规模大致可分为三个部分，首先是6万亿元地方债务限额，全部安排为专项债务限额，一次报批并分三年实施；其次是2024年起连续五年， 在新增地方专项债券中安排8000亿元用于补充政府性基金财力，累计置换隐性债务4万亿元；最后是2029年及以后到期的棚户区改造隐性债 务2万亿元仍按原合同偿还。 上述化债规模 ...

Economic Indicators - The US dollar index rose to approximately 104.3, marking a nearly 3% increase year-to-date, the highest since late July[6] - The yield on the US 10-year Treasury bond increased to 4.25%, up 55 basis points since the Federal Reserve announced a 50 basis point rate cut on September 18[6] - In September, the industrial added value for large enterprises grew by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[7] Consumer and Retail Data - In September, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with a growth acceleration of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month[8] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales amounted to 36,573 billion yuan, growing by 3.6%[8] Sector Performance - In September, 36 out of 41 major industries reported year-on-year growth in added value, with notable increases in sectors such as transportation equipment manufacturing (13.7%) and computer and electronic equipment manufacturing (10.6%)[7] - The automotive manufacturing sector saw a decline of 1.0%, while new energy vehicles surged by 48.5%[7] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The pace of inflation decline in the US has slowed, leading to adjustments in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts[6] - Geopolitical tensions and rising oil prices have heightened market concerns about global economic recovery, contributing to a rebound in the dollar index[6]

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year, continuing a downward trend from previous quarters[6] - The GDP for the first three quarters totaled 94,974.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.8%[6] - The government set a GDP growth target of around 5.0% for 2024, consistent with the previous year's target[6] Industrial Performance - In September 2024, industrial output increased by 5.4% year-on-year, accelerating by 0.9 percentage points from the previous month[6] - From January to September 2024, industrial output grew by 5.8% year-on-year[6] - Among 41 major industries, 36 reported year-on-year growth in output in September[6] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan in September, up 3.2% year-on-year, with a 1.1 percentage point increase from the previous month[7] - Online retail sales totaled 108,928 billion yuan from January to September, growing by 8.6% year-on-year[7] - Excluding automobiles, retail sales grew by 3.6% in September[7] Real Estate Market - New residential property sales prices in first-tier cities fell by 4.7% year-on-year in September, with declines in Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen[8] - From January to September 2024, real estate investment dropped by 10.1% year-on-year, with residential investment down by 10.5%[8] - The area of new housing starts decreased by 22.2% year-on-year during the same period[8]