Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Crude Oil Weekly: Short - term Focus on Geopolitical Disturbances" [2] - Report Date: 20250118 [2] - Analyst: Huang Guiren [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Overall, crude oil supply and demand remain in an oversupplied state, and global oil inventories are at a high level. There are still short - term geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, etc. Technically, it mainly shows a range - bound pattern. For mid - to long - term futures trading, it should still be treated bearishly, but in the short - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical pulse - like disturbances. One can buy continuous call options for protection, and the resistance level for the SC2603 contract is at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel. [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Supply - **OPEC+ Production**: In December, OPEC+ total crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 238,000 barrels per day. OPEC crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 barrels per day. Due to seasonal factors, OPEC decided to suspend the production increase plan in the first three months of 2026. [9][32] - **US Production**: The US crude oil production exceeded 13.8 million barrels per day, maintaining a high level. As of the week ending January 9, the US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. The US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of the total crude oil production. [9][47] - **China Production and Import**: In November, China's crude oil production was 17.627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The cumulative production from January to November was 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. [51] - **Drilling Quantity**: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 82. Among them, the US rig count was 546, a month - on - month decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 43. [28] 4.2 Demand - **Global Demand Forecast**: The IEA monthly report raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2025 from 710,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and expected the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter to slow down. It also raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 from 699,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the total global oil supply in 2026 will exceed the demand by 4.09 million barrels per day. The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the average daily increase in global crude oil inventories in 2026 to reach 2.8 million barrels, basically the same as the increase in 2025. OPEC maintained its previous forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026, believing that the average daily global oil demand in 2026 will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day compared with 2025. [9] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: As of the week ending January 9, the US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points, at a seasonal high. China's refinery operating rate was 70.62%, remaining flat both week - on - week and year - on - year. Domestic major refineries' operating rate rebounded month - on - month and was at a moderately high level, while independent refineries' operating rate decreased month - on - month. [61][65] - **Product Oil Production and Export**: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07%, at the lowest level in recent years. The cumulative gasoline exports from January to November were 7.6775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The cumulative diesel production from January to December was 209.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.55%. The cumulative diesel exports from January to November were 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.28%. The cumulative kerosene production from January to December was 61.6166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. The cumulative exports from January to November were 19.5845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.56%. [70][75][79] - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Among them, the cumulative production of new - energy vehicles was 16.626 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 29%. The rapid development of China's new - energy vehicle industry since 2020 has had a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand. [84] 4.3 Inventory - **OECD and Global In - transit Inventory**: According to the OPEC monthly report, in November, OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 300,000 barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory decreased from its high but remained at a high level. [90] - **US Inventory**: As of the week ending January 9, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.391 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 745,000 barrels. The US EIA gasoline inventory increased by 8.977 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 290,000 barrels. With the high refinery operating rate in the US, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. [92][96] - **China Inventory**: China's port crude oil inventory decreased week - on - week last week but was higher year - on - year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level. [101] 4.4 Macro Data - Not elaborated on in detail in the report, only some related data charts are provided, including China and US GDP year - on - year growth rates, the US dollar index, US non - farm employment numbers, and China's composite PMI.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expected bumper harvest of new crops in South America, it is anticipated that soybean and rapeseed meal will likely experience short - term fluctuations and trend weakly [5]. - The January USDA report is negative, as it lowers U.S. soybean exports and raises the projected output of new Brazilian soybean crops by 3 million tons [7]. - In South America, recent good rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil is beneficial for the growth of sown soybeans, while the core production areas of Argentina may have less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which requires close attention [7]. - In China, the high transaction price of the imported soybean auction by Sinograin on Tuesday supported the spot price, but the reserve auction also increased market supply. The news that China is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by March 1 is negative for rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the pressure level for soybean meal 2605 be referenced at 2850 - 2950 [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines [9]. - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include the weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - U.S. trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate and trend weakly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated weakly [21]. - The January USDA report is negative, as it lowers U.S. soybean exports and raises the projected output of new Brazilian soybean crops by 3 million tons [22]. - The price spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuates strongly. Currently, the spread is at a mid - historical level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. - The 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuates strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.3 Supply Side - **U.S. Soybean Sales Data**: Charts show the net sales volume, weekly export volume, and unsold shipped volume of U.S. soybeans in the current year [41][48]. - **U.S. Soybean Crushing Data**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.12 per bushel, a 9.01% decrease from the previous week and a 10.42% increase from the same period last year [54]. - **China's Soybean Import Volume**: In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 63,000 tons from November 2025 and a 1.3% increase from December 2024. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% increase year - on - year [58]. - **China's Rapeseed Import Volume**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import volume of rapeseed in China [61]. - **Domestic Soybean and Rapeseed Crushing Data**: Charts show China's soybean and rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed meal output, and the crushing profit of imported soybeans [65][71]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Pig Prices and Breeding Profits**: Charts show China's commercial pig slaughter average price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and purchased - pig breeding profit [76]. - **Poultry Breeding Profits**: Charts show the breeding profits of white - feather broilers and laying hens [85]. 3.5 Inventory - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of January 9, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year; the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a 10.78% decrease from the previous week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year [90]. - **Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days**: As of January 16 (the 3rd week of 2026), the national feed enterprise soybean meal physical inventory was 9.94 days, an increase of 0.41 days from the previous period and a decrease of 0.31 days from the same period last year [94]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of the 2nd week of 2026, the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 449,500 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous week [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is in a tight supply - demand balance, and aluminum prices still have upward potential under the support of global wide - policy and the tight supply - demand balance. The traditional consumption areas have a slowdown in growth, and exports are restricted by US tariff policies, but emerging areas such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics show clear incremental demand. The "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue due to the high copper - aluminum price ratio. [7] - The raw material bauxite supply is expected to remain loose, but policy changes in Guinea need attention. Alumina supply pressure exists with large - scale new production capacity, and policy adjustments in the domestic industry should be closely watched. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion channels are basically closed, and overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - The strategy is to hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: Geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the US - EU tension, and the uncertainty in the Middle East have increased market concerns. The US employment growth in December 2025 was still sluggish with 50,000 new non - farm jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. [7] - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is expected to be loose, but Guinea's policy changes are a risk. Alumina supply pressure persists with large new - capacity projects, and cost provides some price support. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and the expansion channel is basically closed. Overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption areas have a slowdown, and exports are affected by US tariffs. However, emerging areas like AI, energy storage, and robotics will drive demand growth, and the "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue. [7] - **Inventory**: Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, social inventory is increasing, and the spot discount is widening. [7] - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio, but no specific analysis is provided other than the data sources. [11][15] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.50% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 187 million tons, a 29.61% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative import was 158.767 million tons, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea was the main source, accounting for 69.41%. Domestic bauxite production from January to October 2025 was 50.5155 million tons, a 5.19% year - on - year increase, but in October, it decreased by 6.96% year - on - year. Since July, domestic bauxite port inventory has declined. [25][31] - **Alumina**: In November 2025, the weighted average full cost of domestic alumina was 2,870 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease. The spot price dropped to 2,869 yuan/ton, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. The industry was near the break - even point with an average loss of 1 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 84.657 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 970,300 tons, a 30.92% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export was 2.3433 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase. The net export was 1.373 million tons, a 612.58% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it was a year of large - scale capacity investment, and there are still many projects to be put into production in 2026 and later. [39][41] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry showed "increasing cost and growing profit". The weighted average full cost was 16,297 yuan/ton, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The average profit was about 5,400 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum smelting enterprise's built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating capacity was estimated to be 43.479 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.28%. In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.086 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 64.93 million tons. From January to November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 40.172 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 1.47 million tons, a 2.44% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was about 23.578 million tons, a 19.35% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the domestic primary aluminum export was about 5.83 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the LME futures inventory was 501,800 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons. [55][61][62][68][72][73] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, a 17.0% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative production was 16.141 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. [81] - **Aluminum Products and Bars**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative production was 61.511 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In 2024, the national aluminum product production was 67.8311 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. [88] - **Aluminum Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's imports of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products were 240,000 tons, a 14.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was 3.6 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, the export was 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease and a 13.3% month - on - month increase; from January to November, the cumulative export was 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. [94] - **Downstream Demand**: In real estate, from January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, building aluminum consumption is expected to decline by 5% to 9.088 million tons, and its proportion in the overall electrolytic aluminum downstream demand will drop to 21%. In the transportation industry, the demand for aluminum in the automotive sector is expected to increase, with new energy vehicle aluminum demand reaching 4.373 million tons in 2026. In the power industry, the growth of photovoltaic aluminum consumption will slow down, while energy - storage aluminum demand is expected to increase significantly, with a 60% year - on - year increase in global energy - storage battery shipments in 2026, driving an 815,000 - ton increase in aluminum demand. [105][109] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Domestically, the decline in real - estate aluminum consumption in 2025 will be offset by the growth of new demand in photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles, and domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026. Globally, the global primary aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.4 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. The global aluminum demand is expected to increase by 2.7%, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance. After 2027, as China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaches its peak, the supply increment will mainly come from overseas, and the demand from new energy and AI will continue to grow, leading to an expanding supply - demand gap. [112] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content analysis is provided other than the data source. [116]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend. With the continuous addition of margin trading funds and the stabilization of Q3 earnings, the medium - term bullish view on stock index direction remains unchanged. In operation, previous medium - term long positions should be held, short - term long positions should set a stop - profit; for options, call options should be held, and short - term stop - profit should be set [16] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - Last week, the broader market rose strongly with heavy volume, breaking through 4,100 points. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap indices rising significantly. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical style indices rose significantly by over 5%, while stable and financial style indices rose less than 1% [7][9][22] - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in December, with production and new orders rising by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively [9][41] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously since reaching its peak in May 2023, dropping to 5.89% as of November 2025 [9][52] - Policies include the Politburo's determination to stabilize the real estate market and boost the capital market; the State Council's release of the new Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns; the central bank's creation of two new monetary policy tools; and the implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to A - shares annually [9] - In 2025, A - share earnings showed signs of stabilization in Q1, declined in Q2, and continued to stabilize and recover in Q3. The earnings of the four major indices recovered again in Q3 2025 [9][78][82] - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is at a high level since 2010, while the ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [11][95][97] Strategy Views and Outlook - The broader market is expected to maintain an oscillating upward trend. Pay attention to the implementation of policy dividends and the policy expectations of the 14th Five - Year Plan. The medium - term bullish view on stock index direction remains unchanged. In operation, hold previous medium - term long positions, set stop - profits for short - term long positions; hold call options and set short - term stop - profits [16] 2. Index and Industry Trends Review - Last week, the broader market rose strongly with heavy volume, breaking through 4,100 points. All four major indices rose, with small and medium - cap indices rising significantly. In terms of style indices, growth and cyclical style indices rose significantly by over 5%, while stable and financial style indices rose less than 1%. Most Shenwan industries rose, with sectors such as comprehensive, military, media, non - ferrous metals, and computer leading the gains. Only the banking sector fell [22][25] 3. Main Contracts and Basis Trends - Among the four major indices, IC and IM rose strongly. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM is at a relatively high level [30] - In terms of arbitrage of main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upward, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upward, and IM/IC continued to decline [35] 4. Policy and Economy Economic Data - In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover in December, with production and new orders rising by 1.7% and 1.6% respectively [41] - Generally, PPI leads the inventory cycle. PPI bottomed out in June 2023, weakened after two months of recovery, and has since shown fluctuations in its decline rate. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenues continued to fall to 1.6%, and inventories continued to rise to 4.6%, indicating passive inventory replenishment due to falling demand [44] - In November 2025, China's social financing scale was 248.85 billion yuan, an increase of 15.28 billion yuan year - on - year. New RMB loans were 40.53 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 11.7 billion yuan [47] - The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling continuously since reaching its peak in May 2023, dropping to 5.89% as of November 2025 [52] Policies - New Nine - Point Plan: Improve listing standards, tighten delisting indicators, and strengthen investor returns [56] - Implementation Plan for Promoting the Entry of Medium - and Long - Term Funds into the Market: Increase the actual investment ratio of medium - and long - term funds in A - shares, extend the assessment cycle, and form a joint force for policy implementation [59] - The Politburo aims to stabilize the real estate market and boost the capital market, including measures such as increasing the entry of medium - and long - term funds, promoting mergers and acquisitions of listed companies, and adjusting housing purchase restrictions [60] - The central bank creates new monetary policy tools, including a swap facility for securities, funds, and insurance companies, and a stock repurchase and increase re - loan [63] - The government implements large - scale debt reduction measures, which will directly increase 1 trillion yuan of local debt reduction funds and significantly reduce local hidden debt pressure from 2024 to 2028 [64] - Promote the high - quality development of the capital market by building first - class investment banks and institutions, implementing differentiated supervision for different types of securities companies [65] - The 14th Five - Year Plan: It is a crucial period for achieving multiple strategic goals. It focuses on developing new - quality productivity, promoting the construction of a unified national market, and expanding domestic demand [68] - The US mid - term elections: The fiscal policy during the mid - term elections is expected to be supportive [71] 5. Revenues and Net Profits of Each Index - The stabilization of listed companies' earnings is an important factor affecting the medium - and long - term market trend. A - share earnings showed signs of stabilization in Q1 2025, declined in Q2, and continued to stabilize and recover in Q3. The earnings of the four major indices recovered again in Q3 2025 [78][82] 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.1354, with an upper - bound value of 15.68, at the 92.93rd percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. However, as earnings rise, the valuation will decrease. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [11][95][97] 7. Fed Interest Rate - Not provided in the report 8. Capital Flows - Margin trading: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 8, 2026, the net inflow was 79 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 64.6 billion yuan in the first five trading days [12][102] - As of January 9, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 1.2 billion yuan [12][114] - The scale of private securities investment funds increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October. The total scale is currently 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan [12][105] - In Q3 2025, the market value of A - share stocks held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a 18.00% increase from the previous quarter, while the CSI 300 index rose 17.90% during the same period. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting scale growth, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan [12][107][108] - As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of equity funds was 323.3 billion yuan, with 137 billion yuan in Q3; the newly established share of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan, with 53 billion yuan in Q3. In 2025, index funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [12] - In the period from April 7, 2025, to December 19, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 176.3 billion yuan; last week, it increased by 47.3 billion yuan. As of December 19, 2025, the ETF funds had a net inflow of 79.3 billion yuan [12] 9. Technical Analysis - Not provided in the report

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - The latest inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate. With the weakening demand, the pressure of inventory accumulation increases, especially for rebar and wire rods. The supply pressure is gradually rising as steel mills resume production with the repair of profits. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased significantly, and the terminal consumption will continue to decline in the off - season. The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery trend, while the downstream construction consumption weakens. The supply - demand contradiction in the industry will gradually accumulate. The steel price is expected to continue to fluctuate mainly due to the support of macro - policies and cost, but the weak demand still suppresses the market [8]. Iron Ore - Overseas iron ore shipments have slightly declined after the year - end rush. The market expects limited incremental shipments in the first quarter due to seasonal factors. However, the previous shipments have turned into domestic arrivals, and the port inventory still has the pressure of accumulation, with the current port inventory reaching a new high in recent years. On the demand side, the molten iron output continues to rise in the short term, and steel mills continue to replenish stocks slightly. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the market expects that the winter storage replenishment of steel mills may accelerate, providing some support for the ore price in the short term [10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies Rebar - **Inventory**: The inventory of the five major steel products starts to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8]. - **Supply**: As steel profits recover, some steel mills resume production, molten iron output rises, and finished product output increases slightly [8]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products declines, terminal consumption weakens in the off - season, and speculative demand is limited [8]. - **View**: The supply of rebar shows a low - level recovery, while demand weakens, and the supply - demand contradiction accumulates. The steel price is expected to fluctuate mainly [8]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of rebar is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [8]. Iron Ore - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipments have decreased, while domestic arrivals have increased. From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10]. - **Demand**: As of January 9, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate and molten iron output of 247 steel mills have increased [10]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of iron ore continues to increase, and the steel mill inventory has also increased [10]. - **View**: The supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expected winter storage replenishment of steel mills provides short - term support for the ore price [10]. - **Strategy**: The 2605 contract of iron ore is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [10]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - As of January 9, 2026, the RB2605 contract of rebar closed at 3144 yuan/ton, and the HC2605 contract of hot - rolled coil closed at 3294 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar main - contract basis was 146 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot - rolled coil main - contract basis was - 24 yuan/ton [23]. 3.3 Demand Side - The apparent consumption and trading volume of steel products are presented in relevant charts, showing the consumption and trading situation of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. The total apparent demand of the five major steel products has decreased [12]. 3.4 Inventory Side - The inventory of rebar, hot - rolled coil, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, etc. is presented in relevant charts. The inventory of the five major steel products has started to accumulate, with rebar and wire rods having a large accumulation amplitude [8][12]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Steel Output**: The output of rebar, hot - rolled coil, medium - thick plate, wire rod, cold - rolled coil, etc. is presented in relevant charts. With the recovery of steel profits, the output of finished products has increased slightly [8][12]. - **Steel Mill Profit**: The profitability of steel mills is presented in relevant charts, with the profitability rate of 247 steel mills at 37.66%, a decrease of 0.44% compared with the previous week [10][12]. - **Blast Furnace Steel Mill**: The blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [10][12]. - **Electric Arc Furnace Steel Mill**: The operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric furnaces are presented in relevant charts, showing an increase [12]. - **Molten Iron and Scrap Steel**: The molten iron output and scrap steel consumption are presented in relevant charts, with the molten iron output increasing [12]. 3.6 Raw Material - Iron Ore - **Global Shipment**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total global iron ore shipments were 3213.7 tons, a decrease of 463.4 tons compared with the previous period [10][145]. - **Australia - Brazil Shipment**: The total iron ore shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil were 2666.5 tons, a decrease of 317.2 tons compared with the previous period. Australian shipments decreased by 165.7 tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 151.5 tons [10][149]. - **Arrival Volume**: From December 29, 2025, to January 4, 2026, the total arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 2824.7 tons, an increase of 96.9 tons compared with the previous period; the total arrival volume at 45 ports was 2756.4 tons, an increase of 155.0 tons; the total arrival volume at six northern ports was 1512.9 tons, an increase of 182.3 tons [10][162]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 9, 2026, the total imported iron ore inventory at 47 ports was 17044.44 tons, an increase of 322.65 tons compared with the previous period. The inventory of steel mills also increased [10][166]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: The total imported iron ore inventory of national steel mills was 8989.59 tons, an increase of 43.05 tons compared with the previous period. The daily consumption of imported ore increased, and the inventory - consumption ratio decreased [10][182].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Coal prices are rebounding, driving up the cost side. The domestic methanol operating rate and production remain at a high level, while the international methanol operating rate has dropped to a low level. The import pressure in January has decreased, reducing the supply pressure. - Currently, the demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, the olefin profit is poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry is expected to have a reduced load, putting pressure on demand. - The import volume in January has declined from a high level, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction at ports. Although the macro - sentiment is good and methanol has risen for four consecutive weeks, the port inventory is still high and the downstream profit is poor, so the methanol price is expected to fluctuate mainly. - For unilateral and option trading, interval operation is recommended, with a reference interval of [2150, 2350] [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 45.11 tons, showing an increasing trend. The import volume is expected to decrease. Due to the opening of the arbitrage space for inland goods to flow to ports, the apparent import demand may weaken, and the port methanol inventory may decline [12]. - **Supply**: The weekly production of Chinese methanol is expected to be about 2.0511 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 90.31%, a slight increase compared to the current period. The estimated arrival plan of imported methanol samples is 285,700 tons, including 186,100 tons of explicit and 99,600 tons of non - explicit. The domestic trade is estimated to be around 20,000 - 30,000 tons [12]. - **Demand**: With the implementation of the MTO maintenance plan in East China, the MTO industry is expected to have a reduced load. In terms of traditional demand, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, dimethyl ether, and chlorides have increased [12]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit remains at a loss of - 202 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remains stable at a loss of - 227 yuan/ton, and the downstream profit is in a large loss. The profit of MTO in East China remains at a loss of - 1446 yuan/ton [12]. - **Coal Price**: The slow approval of RKAB in Indonesia, the strict implementation of production control targets, and the expected export tariff will still dominate the market sentiment and drive up coal prices [12]. 3.2 Strategies - **MA605 Strategy**: Short MA605. As of January 8, the price of MA605 was 2231 yuan. The logic is that the port inventory is at a relatively high level, the downstream profit is poor, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [17]. - **PP - 3MA Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread. As of January 8, the spread of the May contract was - 209 yuan. The logic is that in 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, with greater supply pressure than methanol, while the new production capacity of methanol downstream is large, and the methanol demand is resilient. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [18]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of January 8, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2220 yuan/ton [24]. - **Basis**: As of January 8, the basis relative to the May contract was - 11 yuan/ton [24]. 3.4 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Production**: Last week (20260102 - 0108), the effective production capacity of Chinese methanol plants was 106.275 million tons/year, excluding 1.77 million tons/year of invalid production capacity. The production was 2,042,365 tons, a decrease of 6200 tons month - on - month. The plant capacity utilization rate was 91.42%, a month - on - month increase of 1.12% due to the decrease in the production capacity base [83]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of January 7, 2026, the methanol arrival volume in China during the period (20260101 - 20260107) was 373,300 tons, including 335,100 tons of foreign vessels (227,100 tons of explicit and 108,000 tons of non - explicit, with 83,400 tons of explicit in Jiangsu) and 38,200 tons of domestic trade vessels (13,300 tons in Jiangsu, 8800 tons of non - explicit in Zhejiang, and 16,100 tons in Guangdong) [91]. - **New Production Capacity in 2025**: China's new methanol production capacity in 2025 was about 7.43 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants were equipped with downstream products such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [94]. - **New Production Capacity in 2026**: China's new methanol production capacity in 2026 is expected to be about 7.87 million tons, with a capacity increase of about 7.3% [95]. 3.5 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [101]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Production**: The MTO operating rate was 89.28%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%. Although the loads of many MTO enterprises in East China were reduced, the loads of inland enterprises increased, resulting in a slight increase in the weekly average operating rate after hedging [105]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate was low [109]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: As of January 7, 2026, the order backlog of sample enterprises was 237,500 tons, an increase of 29,500 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 14.16% [122]. - **New Downstream Production Capacity**: The new downstream production capacity is expected to be high, with a corresponding methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, indicating that the methanol demand remains resilient [125]. 3.6 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 447,700 tons, an increase of 25,100 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 5.94% [131]. - **Port Inventory**: As of January 7, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1.5372 million tons, an increase of 40,800 tons compared to the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.73%. The port inventory continued to accumulate, mainly in Zhejiang. The提货 at the mainstream storage areas along the Yangtze River in Jiangsu remained stable, while the delivery at the marginal warehouses along the river was weak due to the opening of the inland delivery space [133].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Soda Ash**: Supply is at a high level due to the resumption of maintenance - affected enterprises, with production reaching 75.36 million tons in the week of January 8, 2026, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. Demand is weak as downstream float glass production lines have cold - repairs, and overall shipment rate dropped to 78.18%. Factory inventories have accumulated significantly, reaching 157.27 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.93%. Overall supply - demand is difficult to improve, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [6]. - **Glass**: Supply is decreasing as two production lines had cold - repairs, with the average capacity utilization rate at 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points. Some regions saw improved sales due to market sentiment, and overall enterprise inventories decreased slightly to 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%. However, high inventories still suppress the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - week Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash**: Supply increased, demand was weak, inventories accumulated, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1150 - 1280 [6]. - **Glass**: Supply decreased, inventories decreased slightly, but high inventories still pressured the market, and the 2605 contract is expected to range from 1070 - 1180 [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: Upstream includes natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, etc.; downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [12]. - **Flat Glass**: Upstream includes raw materials like quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and fuels such as natural gas, coal - made gas, and petroleum coke; downstream includes real estate, automotive, and electronics industries [14]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of January 9, 2026, the FG main contract closed at 1144, and the North China basis closed at - 124 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 94 yuan/ton [21][29]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 9, 2026, the SA main contract closed at 1228, and the North China basis closed at 22 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [25][29]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 5551.8 million heavy cases, a week - on - week decrease of 2.37%, and an inventory days of 24.1 days, a decrease of 1.5 days from the previous period [9][33]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 157.27 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.01 million tons, and a year - on - year increase of 6.93% [6][44]. 3.5 Supply - **Glass**: From January 2 - 8, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate was 75.63%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.03 percentage points, and the output was 105.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.32% [9][49]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the production was 75.36 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.11%. The theoretical profit of ammonia - soda process was - 57.85 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 39.65%, and that of combined - soda process (double - ton) was - 40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 12.68% [6][57][59]. 3.6 Demand - **Glass**: As of December 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 8.6 days, a week - on - week decrease of 10.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. Engineering orders are winding down [64]. - **Soda Ash**: As of January 8, 2026, the shipment volume was 58.92 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.99%, and the overall shipment rate was 78.18%, a week - on - week decrease of 26.15 percentage points [6][78].

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Egg Weekly Report: Synchronous Rebound in Futures and Spot Markets" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The egg market shows significant supply - demand imbalance, with high in - production laying hen inventory, young age structure, limited demand benefits, and still - excess capacity. Egg prices hit bottom multiple times in 2025, pressuring farmers and weakening their confidence. Before 2026, farmers may accelerate the culling of old hens. As the in - production laying hen inventory decreases and the Spring Festival stocking demand starts, the market supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance, but the upward price space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13] - The main contract continues to fluctuate widely at a low level, with the pressure level at 3050 - 3100. For options, investors can lightly buy call options of far - month contracts [13] Summary by Directory 1. Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Viewpoint** - Spot: The national egg spot price continued to rebound this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin (5.02%) from last week, with the low - price area at 3.00 yuan/jin. In the short term, production costs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price. Market trading improved, and inventories were digested. However, the previous price was disappointing, and the industry's continuous losses led to accelerated culling of old hens and low replenishment enthusiasm. The in - production laying hen inventory and new production may decline, but the medium - term supply pressure remains, and the price rebound space is limited [12] - Supply - demand: In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. The newly - hatched laying hens in December were from the chicks replenished around August 2025. Due to over - capacity, low price increases, and high - temperature impacts in August, the number of newly - hatched hens decreased. In December, the egg price increase was weak, and farmers were eager to cull old hens. The actual number of culled old hens was greater than the newly - hatched ones, so the inventory decreased. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [12] - Outlook: The egg market has supply - demand imbalance. The in - production laying hen inventory is high, and the age structure is young. The demand is limited, and the capacity is still excessive. In 2026, farmers may cull old hens before the Spring Festival. As the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival stocking demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is changing, but the price increase is restricted. Future attention should be paid to culling, capacity reduction, and holiday demand [13] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Spot Price** - The national egg spot price continued to rebound. The average price in the main producing areas was 3.14 yuan/jin, up 0.15 yuan/jin (5.02%) from last week, with the low - price area at 3.00 yuan/jin. In the short term, production costs and farmers' reluctance to sell support the price, but the medium - term supply pressure remains, and the price rebound space is limited [24] 3. Capacity - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory** - In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [37] 4. Supply Side - **In - production Laying Hen Inventory** - In December 2025, the national in - production laying hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a 0.92% month - on - month decrease and a 7.11% year - on - year increase. In January, the number of newly - hatched hens will continue to decline, and farmers are likely to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. The in - production laying hen inventory may decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. The short - term egg price is under pressure, but the medium - term supply - demand outlook is improving [37] - **Replenishment Volume Analysis** - In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chicks of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a 3.39% month - on - month increase. As capacity is gradually reduced, farmers' replenishment sentiment has slightly improved. However, due to the low - level egg price fluctuations and long - term losses in egg chicken farming, most small and medium - sized farmers' replenishment enthusiasm is still low. Only large - scale farms maintain normal chick - buying. The utilization rate of breeding eggs is generally 40% - 50%, and only a few large enterprises can reach about 60%. Considering the low chick price, the chick price is expected to be stable, with an average monthly price of about 2.80 yuan/chick [42] - **Culled Chicken Price** - Based on the average culling age of 488 days in December, the old hens to be culled in January were mostly from the chicks replenished from August to September 2024. With the weak egg price increase and low expectations for the Spring Festival market, farmers plan to cull old hens before the Spring Festival. In January, the supply of old hens is relatively sufficient, and the demand will improve due to Spring Festival stocking. The price of old hens may fluctuate within a narrow range, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [45] - **Culled Chicken Slaughter Volume** - The total slaughter volume of 22 designated slaughter enterprises this week was 2.333 million, a 196,500 increase (9.20% month - on - month) from last week. After the New Year's Day holiday, slaughterhouses resumed work. With the simultaneous increase in egg and chicken prices, the slaughter end is optimistic about the pre - Spring Festival market, but the overall purchase increase is limited due to weak downstream demand [48] 5. Demand Side - **Demand Shows Seasonal Trends** - As an agricultural and sideline product, egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually decline from January to April, reach the annual low around April, then rise until reaching the first - half - year high at the end of May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high from mid - to late September, decline after the peak season in September and October, and gradually stabilize from November to December [71] 6. Cost and Profit - **Cost Side** - The feed cost is the main cost of egg chicken farming, accounting for about 80% of the total cost. In 2026, the corn supply is expected to increase, and the annual average price may slightly decrease. The international purchase volume of soybean meal may increase, and its average price may also decline slightly. Although the feed cost may decrease by 1% - 2%, other costs such as labor and epidemic prevention increase. The full - industry full cost is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin. The egg feed cost in 2026 is expected to decline by 1% - 2% year - on - year, which will support egg chicken farming profits [79] - **Egg Chicken Farming Profit** - The egg chicken farming profit is mainly affected by egg prices and farming costs. This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.52 yuan/jin, unchanged from last week. The profit was - 0.42 yuan/jin, a 0.13 yuan/jin (23.64%) increase from last week. The farming cost per chicken was 133.10 yuan/chicken, a 0.13 yuan/chicken (0.10%) increase from last week. The farming profit was 4.84 yuan/chicken, a 4.69 yuan/chicken (49.21%) increase from last week [87]

期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铜周报 铜供需缺口明确，铜价牛市有望延续 20260111 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：萧勇辉，从业资格号：F03091536,交易咨询号：Z0019917 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 资料来源：钢联、华联期货研究所 资料来源：钢联、华联期货研究所 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：美国对委内瑞拉军事 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report Fundamental view - After the holiday, both the slaughter volume of large - scale enterprises and the slaughter volume decreased, and the spot price of live pigs rose slightly. However, the overall supply pressure remains high, the progress of sows' capacity reduction is slow, and the demand is limited. The pattern of weak supply and demand remains unchanged, and the pig price is expected to continue to adjust weakly [10][23]. - The inventory of reproductive sows is the core indicator of pig production capacity. In October 2025, it dropped to 39.9 million, falling below 40 million again after 17 months, indicating initial results in capacity regulation. But it is still in the green area of capacity regulation, not a sign of a new pig - price surge cycle. Due to improved production efficiency, the capacity reduction cycle is lengthened. The pig slaughter volume is expected to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle is predicted to be in Q1 2026. The weak spot market and reduced secondary fattening have weakened support for pig prices [10]. Strategy view and outlook - The industry is at a crucial stage of short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, and the supply of commercial pigs is expected to increase until the first half of 2026. Domestic pork consumption is declining, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is hard to change in the short term. There may be a "concentrated increase" in supply before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of reproductive sows, the slaughter rhythm, and secondary fattening scale [12]. - For the main contract, the resistance level is 12000 - 12300. In terms of options, one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental view**: Spot price rose slightly after the holiday, but supply pressure remains high and demand is limited; capacity regulation has achieved initial results, but the capacity reduction cycle is long. Pig slaughter volume will increase until May 2026, and the lowest price in this cycle may be in Q1 2026 [10]. - **Strategy view**: The main contract resistance level is 12000 - 12300, and one can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot price**: The national average live - pig slaughter price was 12.41 yuan/kg, up 0.15 yuan/kg from last week, a week - on - week increase of 1.22% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.58%. The price is expected to continue weak adjustment [23]. - **Futures - spot basis**: No specific analysis provided. - **Futures spread**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - fat price**: The standard - fat price spread narrowed by 0.18 yuan/kg to - 0.61 yuan/kg this week [38]. - **Prices of piglets and binary sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 253.33 yuan/head, up 21.66 yuan/head from last week, a week - on - week increase of 9.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 37.41%. The price may rise to 400 yuan/head in the middle and late first quarter [42]. - **Price of culled sows**: The price of culled sows adjusted narrowly with the live - pig price. It may fluctuate next week [45]. 3.3 Capacity - **Inventory of reproductive sows**: In October 2025, it was 39.9 million, down 1.1% month - on - month, falling below 40 million again after 17 months. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly, and it may decline slightly in January [50][54]. - **Culling volume of reproductive sows**: In December, the culling volume of 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culling volume of 85 small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected to increase in January [57]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of commercial pigs**: In December, the inventory of 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, down 0.23% month - on - month and up 4.72% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, down 0.09% month - on - month and up 8.17% year - on - year. It is expected to increase in January [63]. - **Slaughter volume of commercial pigs**: In November, the slaughter volume of 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, down 0.65% month - on - month and up 15.59% year - on - year; that of 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, down 2.03% month - on - month and up 29.75% year - on - year. The slaughter volume may increase in December [66]. - **Average slaughter weight of commercial pigs**: The average slaughter weight adjusted narrowly and the weekly center of gravity moved down slightly [72]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Slaughter volume of live pigs**: In December 2025, as the curing season approached, the slaughter volume of slaughterhouses increased by about 20% [77]. - **Cold storage rate of slaughterhouses**: After the holiday, the market demand declined, and the cold storage rate continued to decline as slaughterhouses sold frozen meat [82]. - **Operating rate and fresh - meat sales rate of slaughterhouses**: After the New Year's Day holiday, the operating rate decreased to 36.63%, down 3.71 percentage points from last week and up 0.68 percentage points year - on - year. It is expected to run weakly next week [85]. - **Prices of substitutes**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of pig farming and slaughtering**: At the end of December, the self - breeding and self - raising model turned profitable, with a profit of 86 yuan/head. This week, the overall loss of the pig - farming industry decreased. The self - breeding and self - raising model had a profit of 59.26 yuan/head, and the model of purchasing piglets still had a loss of 74.89 yuan/head, but the loss narrowed [99]. - **Slaughter gross profit and feed - meat ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - grain ratio**: This week, the pig - grain ratio was 5.37, up 1.14% week - on - week. It is expected to be stable with a slight decline next week [107].