Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report Core Views - This week, the bond market operated steadily with a significant expansion in issuance scale. A total of 881 interest rate bonds and credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1,188.874 billion yuan, indicating strong financing demand from various entities. The cumulative trading volume in the bond market was 77.2 trillion yuan, and the trading turnover reached 79.6 trillion yuan, with the average daily trading volume stable above 1.5 trillion yuan, showing abundant market liquidity and high trading activity [7]. - In the inter - bank market, the yields of major interest rate bonds generally declined, and market sentiment was positive. The short - end yields of 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bonds were stable, fluctuating within the range of 1.3% - 1.33%, while the 30 - year ultra - long special Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2180%, a recent low. The duration center of bond funds rose to 3.1 years, and the leverage ratio of non - bank institutions increased, indicating stronger allocation willingness [7]. - In the past month (from November 29 to December 28, 2025), the yields of credit bonds declined by 0.64% overall. The decline in the medium - short - term (1 - 3 years) yields was significantly higher than that in the long - term (5 years and above), which only decreased by 0.13%. High - grade credit bonds such as AAA - rated medium - short - term notes and high - quality urban investment bonds remained attractive [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the spread between 3 - year corporate bonds and the same - term Treasury bonds narrowed to 46.84BP, reflecting the market's more optimistic pricing of the credit risk of medium - and high - grade credit bonds and continuous strengthening of allocation [7]. - This week, the central bank mainly conducted net repurchase operations in the open market, with a net repurchase of 45 billion yuan. The operating interest rate remained stable at 1.40%. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in January 2026 has increased [9]. - It is expected that in 2026, fiscal policy will be significantly front - loaded, especially in the first half of the year. The estimated issuance scale of local government special bonds is about 4.4 trillion yuan, and the estimated issuance scale of special Treasury bonds is about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bond Market Operation - This week, 881 interest rate bonds and credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 1,188.874 billion yuan. The cumulative trading volume was 77.2 trillion yuan, and the turnover was 79.6 trillion yuan, with an average daily trading volume above 1.5 trillion yuan [7]. - The yields of major interest rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The 1 - year and 3 - year Treasury bond yields were stable at 1.3% - 1.33%, and the 30 - year ultra - long special Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2180% [7]. - In the past month, the yields of credit bonds declined by 0.64% overall, with the medium - short - term yields dropping more significantly than the long - term ones. High - grade credit bonds and high - quality urban investment bonds were attractive [7]. - As of December 26, 2025, the spread between 3 - year corporate bonds and the same - term Treasury bonds narrowed to 46.84BP [7]. Central Bank Operations and Market Expectations - This week, the central bank conducted 422.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, with 457.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net repurchase of 34.8 billion yuan [48]. - The central bank's net repurchase did not change the direction of loose money. The market's expectation of a reserve requirement ratio cut or interest rate cut in January 2026 has increased [9]. Fiscal Policy Expectations - In 2025, 500 billion yuan of local special bond balance limits were issued. It is expected that in 2026, fiscal policy will be significantly front - loaded, with an estimated issuance scale of local government special bonds of about 4.4 trillion yuan and an estimated issuance scale of special Treasury bonds of about 1.3 trillion yuan [9]. Market Liquidity - Recent market liquidity has been unexpectedly loose, with short - term interest rates continuously falling. The weighted average interest rate of DR001 slightly decreased and continued to operate below 1.26%, while DR007 slightly increased by about 4bp due to year - end factors [36]. Foreign Bond Markets (US) - The US federal funds target rate and effective federal funds rate remained at a high level, with the federal funds target rate at 5.25% - 5.50% [78]. - The yields of US Treasury bonds showed certain fluctuations, and the spreads between different maturities also changed [83][85].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Industrial Sector**: In November 2025, industrial profit declined significantly, with a 13.1% year - on - year drop in the profits of large - scale industrial enterprises, mainly due to low PPI, cost pressure, weak demand in some industries, and high inventory pressure. There is a significant industry differentiation, with new kinetic energy industries such as equipment manufacturing and high - tech manufacturing growing rapidly, while traditional industries like upstream resource extraction and some mid - stream raw material manufacturing are under pressure [8]. - **Consumption and Real Estate**: In November 2025, the year - on - year increase in social retail总额 was 1.3%, with service and online consumption as the main growth drivers. The real estate market was under pressure, with both new and second - hand housing prices showing a downward trend in most cities [10]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: GDP growth showed certain fluctuations, and different industries had different contributions to GDP growth. Industrial added value, power consumption, and foreign trade also had their own characteristics and trends [13][38][92]. 3. Summary by Directory National Economic Accounting - **GDP Growth**: From 2023 to 2025, GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates fluctuated. Different industries such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, industry, and services had different growth trends. For example, the service industry had a relatively high growth rate in some quarters [13]. - **Contribution to GDP**: Different industries had different contributions to the year - on - year growth of constant - price GDP. The industrial sector generally had a relatively large contribution [18]. Industry - **Industrial Growth**: In November 2025, the added value of large - scale industrial enterprises increased by 4.8% year - on - year and 0.44% month - on - month, with new kinetic energy industries growing significantly faster than the overall level [8]. - **Industrial Production Volume**: The production volumes of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel showed different trends. For example, in November 2025, the steel output decreased by 2.6% year - on - year [8]. - **Industrial Profit**: From January to November 2025, the total profit of large - scale industrial enterprises was 66268.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Different industries had different profit situations, with some industries like computer, communication, and other electronic equipment manufacturing showing growth, while others like coal mining and washing showed a decline [8][42]. - **Industrial Inventory**: As of the end of October 2025, the finished - product inventory of large - scale industrial enterprises reached 6.82 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7%. The inventory levels of different industries varied, with the inventory of the mining industry decreasing significantly and that of the mid - and downstream manufacturing industries increasing slightly [8][53]. Price Index - **CPI**: In November 2025, the national consumer price index increased by 0.7% year - on - year. Food prices increased by 0.2%, and non - food prices increased by 0.8% [60]. - **PPI**: In November 2025, the national industrial producer price index decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, with a month - on - month increase of 0.1%. Production material prices decreased by 2.4%, and living material prices decreased by 1.5% [68]. Real Estate - **New Residential Prices**: In November 2025, new residential prices in first - tier cities decreased by 1.2% year - on - year, with significant differentiation among cities. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [78]. - **Second - hand Residential Prices**: In November 2025, second - hand residential prices in first - tier cities decreased by 5.8% year - on - year, and second - and third - tier cities also showed year - on - year declines [83]. Foreign Trade and Investment - **Import and Export**: In November 2025, China's total import and export value was 520.63 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. Exports were 305.35 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%, and imports were 215.28 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% [92]. - **Key Commodity Trade**: The export and import volumes of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends [100][101]. Fixed - Asset Investment - **Overall Investment**: From January to November 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 44403.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2.6%. There were differences in investment among different industries, with the first industry showing growth, the second industry having a certain increase, and the third industry showing a decline [115]. - **Real Estate Investment**: From January to November 2025, real estate development investment was 7859.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%. The construction, new construction, completion, and sales areas of real estate also showed downward trends [123]. Domestic Trade - **Retail Sales**: The growth rate of social consumer goods retail总额 and service retail sales showed certain trends, with service and online consumption driving growth. The retail sales of different categories of products also had different performance [157][164]. Transportation - **Freight and Passenger Transport**: The freight and passenger transport volumes of different transportation modes such as rail, road, water, and air showed different trends. The freight rates of shipping also had fluctuations [167][178]. Banking and Currency - **Social Financing**: The new social financing scale and its components, as well as the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock, showed different trends. The growth rates of M1 and M2 also changed, with the M1 - M2 scissors - difference showing a certain trend [182][198]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar and the US dollar index also showed certain trends [207][217]. Fiscal and Employment - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Fiscal revenue included tax and non - tax revenues, and fiscal expenditure included infrastructure and people's livelihood - related expenditures [232][233]. - **Employment**: The urban surveyed unemployment rate and the number of new urban employment showed certain trends [238]. Business Surveys - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations, with different countries and regions having different performance [241]. - **China's Manufacturing and Non - Manufacturing PMI**: In November 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, showing a slight recovery but still in the contraction range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%, in the contraction range [244][252]. US Macroeconomy - **GDP Growth**: The US real GDP showed different growth rates in different quarters, with private consumption, investment, and net exports having different contributions [259]. - **Employment**: The US new non - farm employment and unemployment rate showed certain trends [262]. - **Treasury Yields**: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and their yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [267]. - **Retail Sales**: The year - on - year growth rate of US retail and food service sales showed certain trends, with different categories of products having different performance [270].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The production profit of polyolefins is poor, but there is support at the cost - end. The capacity production is strong, with the operating rate higher than last year and the output significantly exceeding that of last year, leading to great pressure on the supply side. The downstream operating rate remains at a relatively low level overall, and the off - peak season atmosphere is strong, resulting in weak demand. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand. Technically, they rebound after reaching the bottom. In the short term, polyolefins may fluctuate mainly. For futures and options strategies, for futures on a single - side basis, reduce or exit short positions; for options, sell straddle options [9]. - For PP, it is recommended to short. As of December 25, the price is in a downward trend at 6266. The logic is that the new PP capacity is large, and downstream demand is weak, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. It is also recommended to reduce or exit short positions [12]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview - **Inventory**: According to Longzhong Information, the expected inventory of Chinese polyethylene production enterprises this week is about 440,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue to decline. The expected inventory of Chinese polypropylene production enterprises is about 510,000 tons, which is lower than the current period, and the polypropylene market continues to decline [8]. - **Supply**: According to Longzhong Information, this week, plants including Yangzi Petrochemical, Sino - Korean Petrochemical, and Maoming Petrochemical are planned to restart, and with no new planned maintenance plants, the expected total output for the next period is 704,900 tons, an increase of 32,700 tons compared to the current total output. The estimated total output of Chinese polypropylene is 795,000 tons, showing a narrow increase this week and a change from a downward to an upward trend [8]. - **Demand**: According to Longzhong Information, this week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly decreased, and export orders have shown weak growth. After the e - commerce activities ended, the supermarket channel has entered the de - stocking stage. The operating rate of PP downstream is on a downward trend [8]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The losses of oil - based PE and PP production profits have widened. The production of ethylene - based PE and propylene - based PP are in a state of loss, and the losses of PDH - based PP production have also widened. There is support at the cost - end [8]. 3.2 Production Profit - **PE Production Profit**: The losses of LLDPE oil - based and ethylene - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, indicating a poor profit situation [32][35]. - **PP Production Profit**: The losses of PP oil - based, propylene - based, PDH - based, and coal - based production profits are shown in relevant charts, with an overall poor profit situation [37][39][42]. - **PE/PP Import and Export Profit**: The import and export profit situations of LLDPE and PP are shown in relevant charts, with varying degrees of losses [44][46][48]. 3.3 Inventory - **PE Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of PE production enterprises, traders, social inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the overall expected inventory decline [52][55]. - **PP Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of PP production enterprises, traders, port inventory, and coal - based inventory, with the inventory of production enterprises expected to decline [58][60]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Output**: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PE are shown in relevant charts. The plastic production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 12%. In 2025, the new capacity is 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [68][70][89]. - **PP Output**: The weekly output, operating rate, and maintenance loss volume of PP are shown in relevant charts. PP production capacity has maintained high - speed growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of 11%. In 2025, China's PP realized capacity is about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base has increased to 49.165 million tons, a 10.2% increase compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume may be about half [75][77][95]. - **PE and PP Imports**: Charts show the import volumes of PE and PP [83]. 3.5 Demand Side - **PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of PE and PP downstream industries, with the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries slightly decreasing and the operating rate of PP downstream on a downward trend [105]. - **PE Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of agricultural film, packaging film, hollow products, and PE pipes, with a general decline [109]. - **PP Downstream Operating Rate**: Charts show the operating rates of plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, and PP pipes, with a downward trend [118][120]. - **PE/PP Exports**: Charts show the export volumes of PE and PP [123]. - **Plastic Products**: Charts show the production volume of plastic products, the inventory of the rubber and plastic products industry, the year - on - year monthly production of automobiles and household appliances, the export volume of household appliances, the domestic automobile production, and China's automobile exports [127][128][133].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, the silver price was very strong, continuously hitting new historical highs. The macro - economic data further increased the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the change of the Fed chairman may accelerate the rate - cut process. In terms of commodity attributes, the development of photovoltaic, new - energy vehicles, and AI data centers provides rigid support for silver demand. The global silver market has a supply shortage, and the domestic inventory is at a low level, leading to a record - high spread between domestic and foreign silver futures. With the implementation of the silver export license system in 2026, the flow of domestic silver to overseas derivative markets will be restricted. The continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the low global deliverable inventory also support the silver price. Therefore, the medium - and long - term trend of silver is expected to remain strong [8][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Silver Trend**: Last week, London silver and Shanghai silver both hit new highs. London silver reached 79.405 and closed at 79.329, with a weekly increase of 18.3% and an annual cumulative increase of 175%. Shanghai silver's main contract reached 19215 and closed at 19204 yuan/kg, with a weekly increase of 19.1% and an annual cumulative increase of 145% [8]. - **US Economy**: The US GDP in the third quarter grew by 4.3%, the fastest in two years, driven by strong consumer spending and a significant rebound in exports. However, consumer confidence has declined for five consecutive months, and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6% in November, the highest since September 2021 [8]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in November increased by 2.7% year - on - year, lower than the expected 3.1%, and the core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest since early 2021, which strengthened the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [8]. - **Interest Rate**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond decreased by 2 basis points last week, which increased the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets [8]. - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply gap of over 100 million ounces, and it has been in a supply shortage for five consecutive years. As of December 26, 2025, the inventory of the world's largest silver ETF - SLV increased by 2% week - on - week. The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low, and the available inventory is tight [8]. - **Spread**: The spread between domestic and foreign silver futures reached a historical high of 1396 yuan last week, and the London spot gold - silver ratio dropped to 57.14, the lowest in more than 10 years [8]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2602 cautiously against the 5 - day moving average and set stop - profit levels [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The report provides the price trend charts of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver [12][16]. 3.3 US Economy - The report presents the trend charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm employment, and unemployment rate [24][25]. 3.4 Inflation - The report shows the trend charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE [31]. 3.5 Interest Rate - The report provides the trend charts of US Treasury bond yields (short - term, medium - and long - term) and real interest rates [37][41]. 3.6 Fundamentals - The report shows the trend charts of silver ETF holdings, COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory [46][49][53]. 3.7 Dollar Index and Exchange Rate - The report presents the trend charts of the dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, British pound against the US dollar, US dollar against the Canadian dollar, euro against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Japanese yen [59][62][67][69]. 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Spread - The report shows the trend charts of domestic and foreign silver futures and their spread [76]. 3.9 Silver Basis - The report presents the trend charts of domestic and foreign silver basis [86]. 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - The report shows the trend charts of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX [89].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供给端扰动 市场情绪偏暖 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 产业链结构 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 供应：上周PVC上游开工率77.23%，环比降低0.15个百分点，同比降低3.4个百分点，处在同期中性位。主要是部分 装置检修降负荷影响，但总体供应仍在高位。2026年几乎没有新增产能，供应扩张 ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货油脂周报 马棕1 2月前2 5日产量降幅扩大 油脂短期或震荡偏强 20251228 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 豆油方面，南美主产区近期都有不错的降雨，有利已播大豆的生长。 ◆ 棕榈油方面，SPPOMA数据显示，马棕12月1-25日产量环比减少9.12%。ITS数据显示，马棕12月1- ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PTA周报 供需预期改善推动聚酯走高 20251228 黎照锋 0769-22110802 从业资格号：F0210135 交易咨询号：Z0000088 审核：黄忠夏，从业资格号：F0285615,交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 上游：成本端布油在近五年低点反弹，油价相对低迷但货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局势复杂仍将为油价带来支撑，而且欧 美对燃油车的限制边际放宽。当前PX利润良好，开工处于高位，PX库存低位，延续偏紧格局。 ◆ 供应：根据投产计划，PX和PTA供需基本面向好，PX明年上半年没有新产能计划投产，PTA明年没有新产能计划投产。PTA现货加 工费173元/ ...

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货原油周报 供需偏弱 地缘扰动 20251228 黄桂仁 0769-22112875 从业资格号：F3032275 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黄忠夏 从业资格号：F0285615 交易咨询号：Z0010771 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点 供应：欧佩克12月报显示，11月份OPEC+原油总产量4306.5万桶/日，较年初增加242万桶/日。其中欧佩克原油产量2848.0万桶/日， 较年初增加176.5万桶/日。沙特原油产量1005.3万桶/日，环比增加5.3万桶/日。欧佩克会议决定，由于季节性因素，2026年前三 个月将暂停增产计划。美国原油产量突破1380万桶/日，产量维持高位。 需求：IEA月报将2025年全球石油需求增长预测从71万桶/日上调至78.8万桶/日，预计第四季度石油需求增长将放缓，将2026年全 球石油需求增长预测从69.9万桶/日上调至77万桶/日。预计2026年全球石油供应总量将比需求量高出409万桶/日（先前报告 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The macro - economic environment in 2026 is complex. Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", the US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle, and China's fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, providing economic support for copper demand. - In terms of the copper industry, the global copper mine supply in 2025 was disturbed by various factors, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In 2026, the actual output growth is also limited. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is decreasing, and smelters face large - scale losses, leading to a possible decline in the growth rate of refined copper production. Overseas factors may exacerbate the shortage of domestic copper supply. - In 2026, as the first year of China's "15th Five - Year Plan", the demand in traditional industries will remain resilient, and the new kinetic energy sectors such as global new energy and AI will maintain high - speed development. The copper market will have a large supply gap. It is recommended to buy in the medium - to - long - term or conduct rolling long positions, with the Shanghai copper reference support range at 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Annual Viewpoints and Strategies - **Strategy**: Buy in the medium - to - long - term or conduct rolling long positions. The reference support range for Shanghai copper is 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro**: Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", the US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle, and the US encourages investment to attract the return of the manufacturing industry. China will focus on the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency, and accelerating the transformation to innovation - driven development. Fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, and the GDP growth rate is expected to be around 5%. Non - ferrous metals are supported by the demand in power, new energy, and AI but may be volatile [9]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the global copper mine supply was disturbed, and the output is expected to decline slightly. In 2026, the actual output growth is limited. The copper concentrate processing fee TC is decreasing, and smelters face large - scale losses. China has been actively reducing production capacity, and many smelters will have to passively cut production in 2026. Overseas factors may exacerbate the shortage of domestic copper supply [9]. - **Demand**: In 2026, as the first year of China's "15th Five - Year Plan", the policy is expected to be favorable. The demand in traditional industries will remain resilient, and the new kinetic energy sectors such as global new energy and AI will maintain high - speed development. The copper market will have a large supply gap. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2026, with a copper consumption growth rate of about 15% and an absolute copper consumption increase of about 1.5 million tons. The total copper consumption in the photovoltaic and wind power sectors is expected to decline further. The global AI computing power demand will bring about 1 million tons of copper consumption increase [9]. 3.2 International Situation - **Macroeconomic**: The US encourages investment to attract the return of the manufacturing industry, and China will accelerate the transformation to innovation - driven development. China's GDP growth rate in 2026 is expected to be around 5% [11]. - **Geopolitics and Sino - US Relations Evolution**: Sino - US relations may remain "in conflict but not broken", and attention should be paid to the impact of the US mid - term elections, Supreme Court decisions, and economic data on policies. The long - term foundation of the US dollar system is loosening, and the internationalization of the RMB has entered a strategic window period, with Chinese enterprises accelerating their overseas expansion [12]. - **Global Economic Pattern and Commodities**: The global GDP in 2026 is expected to reach $124 trillion, but the growth rate will slow down marginally, and the economic scale gap between China and the US may widen to $11 trillion. Gold benefits from geopolitical risk premiums, crude oil is restricted by increased supply, and non - ferrous metals such as silver, copper, aluminum, and tin are supported by the demand in power, new energy, and AI but may be volatile [13]. 3.3 Domestic Situation - The domestic situation in 2026 will revolve around the start of the "15th Five - Year Plan", with a general tone of making progress while maintaining stability, improving quality and efficiency. - **Economic Policy and Macro - orientation**: In 2026, macro policies will be more forward - looking, emphasizing the coordinated cooperation of fiscal, monetary, and industrial policies, and focusing on the combination of traditional and innovative tools, as well as cyclical and reform - based policies to promote high - quality development. - **Innovation - Driven and New Kinetic Energy Cultivation**: Innovation is regarded as a key measure, including formulating an integrated education, science, and talent plan, building international science and technology innovation centers in Beijing, Shanghai, and the Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area, and deepening the "AI +" initiative and improving AI governance. - **Livelihood Security and Social Policy**: Livelihood work focuses on "practicality", concentrating on key areas such as employment, education, and elderly care. - **Reform Breakthrough and Risk Prevention**: Reform will be a source of dividends, including promoting the construction of a unified national market, revitalizing existing assets, and preventing and resolving risks in key areas such as local government debt and real estate. - **Challenges and Uncertainties**: The external environment faces pressures such as global growth slowdown and geopolitical conflicts, while domestically, China needs to address economic structural imbalances, and the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries face significant uncertainties [15][16]. 3.4 Macroeconomic Policies - The US and Europe will enter an interest - rate cut cycle. China's fiscal and monetary policies will be "double - loose" to support the economy, with possible cuts in the deposit reserve ratio and interest rates, which are beneficial to the stability of the capital market. - **Fiscal Policy**: Continue to implement a more active fiscal policy, maintain "necessary fiscal deficits, total debt, and total expenditure". In 2026, the deficit rate is expected to remain stable, and ultra - long - term special treasury bonds and local government special bonds will remain stable. Clean up and standardize unreasonable tax returns and subsidies to solve problems such as local protection and "involution - style" competition. - **Monetary Policy**: Continue to use the expression of "moderately loose", and propose to "flexibly and efficiently use various policy tools such as reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts". Interest - rate and reserve - requirement ratio cuts are expected to continue in 2026 [19]. 3.5 Fundamentals - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Large - scale Copper Mine Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated greatly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year. New large - scale copper mines are either in harsh geological conditions or politically unstable regions, with long development cycles and high costs. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, the top three countries in global copper mine production were Chile (23%), Congo (DRC) (15%), and Peru (11%); the top three countries in global refined copper production were China (45%), Congo (DRC) (9%), and Chile (7%). - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fee TC and Global Copper Mine Output**: As of December 12, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - $43.13/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was $3,175/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee was significantly lower than the break - even point. In 2025, the global copper mine output was expected to decline by 0.12%, and the new production in 2026 was only 533,000 tons. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In October 2025, China's copper concentrate import volume was 2.451 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to October, the import volume was 25.086 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 50th week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 664,000 tons. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In September 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3333 million tons, with a shortage of 81,300 tons. From January to September, the production was 20.616 million tons, with a surplus of 124,600 tons. In October 2025, China's refined copper production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%. From January to October, the cumulative production was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7%. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In October 2025, China's refined copper import volume was 323,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.62% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.32%. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 2.874 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.45%. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: In October 2025, China's scrap copper import volume was 196,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6.81% and a year - on - year increase of 7.35%. From January to October, the total import volume was 1.8956 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.11%. As of December 12, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 4,591 yuan/ton, higher than the reasonable price difference. - **Electrolytic Copper Import Profit and Loss and Scrap Copper Invoice Points**: No specific analysis content provided. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of December 11, 2025, the LME copper inventory was 165,000 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 450,600 tons, a new high in the same period in recent years. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since May 2025, the domestic social inventory has fluctuated between 1 million and 2 million tons. As of December 11, 2025, the social inventory was 171,200 tons. The SHFE inventory has also remained low. - **Primary Processing Market**: In October 2025, China's copper product output was 2.004 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.3%. From January to October, the cumulative output was 20.124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In October 2025, China's import of unwrought copper and copper products was 440,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. From January to October, the cumulative import was 4.46 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.1%. In October 2025, the export of unwrought copper and copper products was 134,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 67.8%. From January to October, the cumulative export was 1.2771 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to October 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 721.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.7%, and the investment in power grid projects was 482.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to October, China's real estate development investment was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7%, and residential investment was 5.6595 trillion yuan, a decrease of 13.8%. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to October 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 27.692 million and 27.687 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.2% and 12.4% respectively. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 13.015 million and 12.943 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 33.1% and 32.7% respectively. It is estimated that the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China will reach 18.5 million in 2026, with a copper consumption growth rate of about 15% and an absolute copper consumption increase of about 1.5 million tons. - **Terminal Market - Home Appliances**: In October 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 14.204 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 13.5%. The cumulative output from January to October was 230.344 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. The refrigerator output was 8.788 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 6.0%. The cumulative output from January to October was 89.959 million units, a year - on - year increase of 0.9%. The washing - machine output was 11.035 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.0%. The cumulative output from January to October was 101.078 million units, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. The color - TV output was 18.04 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.7%. The cumulative output from January to October was 166.176 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In October 2025, China's home - appliance export volume was 35.1907 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. From January to October, the export volume was 371.1632 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. - **Terminal Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: As of the end of October 2025, China's total power - generation installed capacity was about 2.81 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 12.6%. The solar - power installed capacity was about 540 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 47.0%, and the wind - power installed capacity was about 400 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 15.6%. It is estimated that the copper consumption in the photovoltaic and wind - power sectors will decline further in 2026. - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: Since 2020, the global copper demand structure has changed significantly. It is estimated that the proportion of green copper demand (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed that of construction demand in 2025. From 2026 to 2028, the global refined copper supply will be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year growth of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4%. The demand will be 28.13 million tons, 28.8 million tons, and 29.45 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year growth of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3%. There will be continuous shortages of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 to 2028 [116]. 3.6 Technical Analysis - From a long - term perspective, the Shanghai copper weighted index has formed an upward breakthrough in a triangle pattern. It is estimated that it will have strong support at the level of 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton in 2026 [124].

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