Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the context of uncertain Sino-US trade relations, it is expected that soybean meal and rapeseed meal may fluctuate with a slightly upward trend [3][4]. - The key factors to watch include the weather conditions in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Viewpoints - **US Soybeans**: The growth of US soybeans is currently good based on the excellent - good rate. There is a potential drought risk at the end of July, and the weather in August, the critical growth period, needs close attention. The market is also concerned about whether countries can reach agreements with the US, especially the Sino - US agreement, which is crucial for the domestic soybean meal market [3]. - **South America**: It is currently the peak export season for Brazilian soybeans, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded [3]. - **Domestic**: In the next two months, the arrival of imported soybeans will continue to increase, the inventory of soybean meal will rise, the pressure on oil mills due to full storage will increase, and the spot basis of soybean meal will be weak [3]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the support level for soybean meal 2509 be around 2850. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [4]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to wait and see [4]. - **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations [4]. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Price Movement**: Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated with a slightly upward trend due to the expectation of a Sino - US agreement. The July USDA report was neutral to bearish as it lowered the export forecast for US soybeans in the 25/26 season and raised domestic crushing, resulting in an increase in ending stocks from 295 million bushels in June to 310 million bushels [13]. - **Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal is fluctuating widely and is currently at a historically low level, so it is recommended to wait and see. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal is fluctuating weakly, and it is also recommended to wait and see [17][20]. - **Spot Basis**: The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is presented in the report, but no specific analysis is provided [21]. Supply - Side - **US Soybean Sales**: As of July 10, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 271,850 tons [30]. - **US Soybean Crushing**: As of the week of July 11, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.46 per bushel, with a 1.23% increase from the previous week and an 8.21% decrease compared to the same period last year [36]. - **Chinese Imports**: In June 2025, China imported 12.264 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 1.6544 million tons from May and a 10.35% increase compared to June 2024. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of soybeans was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase year - on - year [39]. Demand - Side - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding**: The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig - raising profits, chicken - raising profits, etc., but no specific analysis is provided [54][63]. Inventory - **Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the national port soybean inventory was 6.5749 million tons, a 3.31% increase from the previous week and an 11.18% increase year - on - year. The domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 886,200 tons, a 7.76% increase from the previous week and a 27.32% decrease year - on - year [71]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of July 11, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 146,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 15,100 tons, an increase of 10,500 tons from the previous week [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rebound of domestic coking coal and coke prices and potential supply - side policies may boost market sentiment. Although the absolute value of port inventory is still low, production profit is good, domestic production and operating rate are still high, international methanol operating rate has rebounded to a high level, methanol imports have recovered, downstream profit is poor, downstream demand is under pressure, and inventory has increased. Therefore, methanol is likely to fluctuate. For single - side and option trading, the report suggests range - bound operations and selling straddle options [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory reached 35.69 tons this week, a week - on - week increase of 0.46 tons or 1.31%. Port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate slightly [7]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol output is estimated to be around 191.93 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 85.17%. The import sample arrival plan is estimated at 32.60 tons, including 16.70 tons of visible and 15.90 tons of invisible imports, and domestic trade is estimated at 3.5 - 4.0 tons [7]. - **Demand**: This week, the overall start - up of the olefin industry slightly increased. The start - up rate of dimethyl ether remained flat, that of acetic acid increased, while those of formaldehyde and chloride decreased [7]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The import profit showed an inversion of - 43 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia remained stable at 122 yuan/ton, while the downstream profit suffered large losses, with the profit loss of MTO in East China still being large at - 1131 yuan/ton [7]. - **Coal Price**: Some traders are bullish on the traditional coal - using peak season, but the port inventory is still high, and the oversupply situation is difficult to change in the short term [7]. - **Strategy**: For single - side trading, short MA509. For PP - 3MA, short the spread. In option trading, sell straddle options [7][10][11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot Price**: As of July 10, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu was 2390 yuan/ton [15]. - **Basis**: As of July 10, the basis relative to the September contract was - 8 yuan/ton [15]. 3.3 Supply - side - **Capacity Utilization and Output**: Last week (20250704 - 0710), China's methanol output was 1909928 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 77148 tons, and the device capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.89% [66]. - **International Operating Rate and Imports**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol sample arrival volume was 31.03 tons, including 26.42 tons of foreign vessels and 4.61 tons of domestic trade vessels [71]. - **New Capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol capacity is about 860 tons, with a capacity increase of about 8.4%. Overseas, the new methanol capacity is expected to be 505 tons [73][74]. 3.4 Demand - side - **Apparent Consumption**: From January to May, the apparent consumption of methanol was 4577 tons, an increase of 7.6% [78]. - **Methanol - to - Olefin Operating Rate and Output**: Last week, the MTO operating rate was 85.94%, a week - on - week increase of 0.55% [82]. - **Traditional Downstream Operating Rate**: The operating rates of different traditional downstream products showed different trends, such as formaldehyde, acetic acid, MTBE, and dimethyl ether [83][86]. - **Downstream Purchasing Volume**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [90]. - **Production Enterprise Order Volume**: As of July 9, 2025, the sample enterprise's pending order volume was 22.12 tons, a decrease of 2.00 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 8.29% [98]. - **New Downstream Capacity**: In 2025, the new downstream capacity of methanol is mainly concentrated in the olefin field, with an estimated new olefin capacity of 236 tons and a theoretical new methanol demand of 660 tons. For traditional downstream, the new capacity is mainly in acetic acid and MTBE, with a theoretical new methanol demand of 587 tons [100]. 3.5 Inventory - **Enterprise Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventory was 35.23 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.07 tons or 3.14% [104]. - **Port Inventory**: As of July 9, 2025, the Chinese methanol port sample inventory was 71.89 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.52 tons or 6.71% [107]. - **Port Floating Storage**: No specific data summary was provided, but relevant charts were presented [110].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: Since mid - February 2025, the national live pig market has been in a stalemate between supply and demand, with prices adjusting narrowly within a range. After the Dragon Boat Festival, due to high - temperature weather, pork consumption entered a slack season, and pig enterprises faced great pressure, leading to a temporary decline in pig prices. The spot price briefly fell below 14 yuan/kg and then rebounded, indicating strong willingness for second - round fattening at low prices. In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased by 40,000 to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. The piglet supply curve may intensify the expected supply pressure in the far - month. If pork consumption does not increase significantly, the upside of pig prices will be limited even in the peak season [7]. - **Strategy and Outlook**: There are still profit expectations for the live pig breeding industry in the second half of the year. However, the epidemic prevention pressure in the breeding end will increase in the third and fourth quarters. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly but the overall reduction will be limited. In July, the supply of the live pig market may continue to increase, and the spot price may continue to run weakly within the range. In the long term, prices are expected to improve. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Semi - annual Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Views**: The live pig market is in a supply - demand stalemate, with prices in a narrow - range adjustment. The inventory of reproductive sows is increasing, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to intensify. Most enterprises are in a state of small profits or cost - covering [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook**: The profit expectation for the second half of the year exists, but the epidemic prevention pressure increases. The inventory of reproductive sows may decline slightly. The supply in July may increase, and the spot price may run weakly. The futures market depends on market sentiment. The short - term resistance level of the main contract is 14,000, and out - of - the - money call options can be sold [9] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices**: Since mid - February 2025, the live pig market has been in a stalemate, and prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [15]. - **Futures Spreads**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Standard and Fat Pig Prices**: Recently, the prices of standard and fat pigs have risen simultaneously. The supply of both has decreased, and the demand for second - round fattening has increased, with the price of standard pigs rising more than that of fat pigs, and the spread narrowing [31]. - **Piglet and Binary Sow Prices**: Since mid - May, piglet prices have been falling due to weak commodity pig market, past peak of piglet replenishment, and cautious attitude of retail farmers. In the second half of the year, the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment will weaken, and prices are expected to adjust weakly [35]. - **Culled Sow Prices**: The industry's willingness to actively eliminate production capacity is low. Culled sow prices were driven up by the increase in live pig prices this week and are expected to fluctuate and adjust [38] 3.3 Production Capacity - **Inventory of Reproductive Sows**: In May 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows increased to 40.42 million, a month - on - month increase of 0.10% and a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, still 3.9% higher than the normal level. Enterprises' willingness to actively reduce production capacity is weak, and the supply pressure in the future is expected to increase [42]. - **Elimination Volume of Reproductive Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of reproductive sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly month - on - month and year - on - year, while that in small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year. In June, due to high - temperature and high - humidity weather, the elimination volume may be stable but difficult to decrease [49] 3.4 Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. In June, due to high - temperature weather and price decline, the inventory is expected to decrease [54]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased month - on - month. In June, it is expected to increase due to factors such as farmers' willingness to sell [57]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, mainly due to the suspension of piglet replenishment; the inventory of pigs over 140 kg decreased due to farmers' willingness to sell; the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly due to the entry of second - round fattening pigs [60]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: This week, the average slaughter weight of live pigs decreased slightly due to farmers' pressure - barring and weight - increasing intentions [63] 3.5 Demand Side - **Live Pig Slaughter Volume**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak. Slaughtering enterprises have a high fresh - sales rate and a low cold - storage rate, indicating cautious attitude towards inventory building. Domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [72]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate decreased due to weak downstream demand. The demand for frozen products is weak, and there is still passive storage of fresh products, leading to a slight increase in the cold - storage rate [75] - **Substitute Prices**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Profit of Live Pig Breeding and Slaughter**: The average weekly profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode is 75.35 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 14.24 yuan. The average weekly loss of the mode of purchasing piglets has expanded to 58.39 yuan per head, a month - on - month increase of 4.97 yuan [88]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: Not elaborated in detail in the summary requirements. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio was 5.90, a month - on - month increase of 0.73%. Next week, it is expected to increase slightly and stabilize [95]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In May, the month - on - month decline in second - hand housing prices in all tiers of cities widened, while the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. New housing prices in first - and second - tier cities turned down month - on - month [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of newly built commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities was 1.7%, narrowing by 0.4 percentage points from the previous month. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 3.5% and 4.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing by 0.4 and 0.5 percentage points [6]. - The year - on - year decline in the sales price of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities was 2.7%, narrowing by 0.5 percentage points. The prices in second - and third - tier cities decreased by 6.1% and 6.9% year - on - year respectively, with the decline narrowing [6]. - In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year and 0.61% month - on - month. From January to May, it increased by 6.3% year - on - year [6]. - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 4,132.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 20,317.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 19,194.7 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.7% [7]. - From January to May 2025, the national real estate development investment was 3,623.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7% [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rates from 2022 Q4 to 2025 Q1 were 3%, 4.7%, 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4% respectively [9]. - The contributions of different industries to GDP growth and their year - on - year growth rates in different quarters from 2022 to 2025 are presented in the figures [9][15]. Industry Industrial Growth Rate - The year - on - year growth rates of the added value of major industries in May 2025 are as follows: coal mining and washing increased by 5.5%, oil and gas extraction increased by 5.3%, and the automobile manufacturing industry increased by 11.6% [6]. Major Output of Industrial Enterprises above Designated Size - The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel from May 2024 to May 2025 is presented in the figure [26]. Industry Electricity Consumption - The year - on - year growth rates of electricity consumption in major industries from December 2023 to April 2025 are presented in the figure [34]. Industrial Enterprise Profits - From January to April 2025, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size were 2,117.02 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.4% [37]. - The profits of different industries showed different trends. For example, the profit of the non - ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 24.5%, while the profit of the coal mining and washing industry decreased by 48.9% [37]. Industrial Enterprise Inventory - As of the end of April 2025, the finished - product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.61 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the inventory growth rate decreased slightly [48]. Price Index CPI - In May 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.4%, and non - food prices remained flat [53]. PPI - In May 2025, the national industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased by 3.3% year - on - year and 0.4% month - on - month. The industrial producer purchase price index decreased by 3.6% year - on - year and 0.6% month - on - month [60].

Report Title - The report is titled "Huaxian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report: Demand Resilience Remains, and Ore Prices Are Strongly Supported" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - The iron ore market still has expectations of increasing supply and decreasing demand, but currently, the demand side shows strong resilience, supporting the ore price. In the short term, the iron ore price will maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies for the Iron Ore 2509 contract, with a reference resistance level of 730 yuan/ton [5] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy Supply - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 1577,000 tons week - on - week to 33.527 million tons. Australian 19 - port shipments were 19.936 million tons, down 1 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian 19 - port shipments were 7.726 million tons, up 268,000 tons week - on - week; non - mainstream region shipments decreased by 845,000 tons week - on - week to 5.865 million tons. China's 45 - port arrivals decreased by 224,800 tons week - on - week to 23.845 million tons, and the arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.19 million tons, down 1.646 million tons week - on - week. Although the current shipments and arrivals have decreased, they are still at a high level in the same period of history, and there is an expectation of increased shipments by mines at the end of the quarter, so the supply pressure of iron ore remains high [5] Demand - As of June 20th, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 59.31%, up 0.87% from the previous week; the blast furnace operating rate was 83.82%, up 0.41% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output increased by 5700 tons to 2.4218 million tons, ending a five - week decline. Last week, the demand for steel products rebounded, the profitability rate of steel mills significantly rebounded due to raw material price concessions, the operating rate also increased, and the demand for hot metal showed strong resilience, providing support for ore prices. However, attention should still be paid to the pressure on ore prices caused by the seasonal weakening of terminal demand [5] Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138.9416 million tons, down 389,800 tons week - on - week. In terms of countries of origin, the inventory of Australian ore was 60.1744 million tons, up 114,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 49.5779 million tons, down 1.1035 million tons week - on - week. The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.3624 million tons, up 1.3756 million tons week - on - week. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 19 days, 2 days less than the previous week. Although the port inventory of iron ore has decreased, considering the subsequent loose shipments from mines, there is a risk of inventory accumulation at ports [5] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - This section mainly presents various charts related to the iron ore futures market, including the prices of DCE iron ore 09 and 01 contracts, contract spreads, variety spreads, and basis differences of different iron ore varieties, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][12][14][16] 3. Inventory Side Port Inventory (by Country) - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of Australian ore at 45 ports was 60.1744 million tons, up 114,800 tons week - on - week; the inventory of Brazilian ore was 49.5779 million tons, down 1.1035 million tons week - on - week [26] Port Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports across the country was 138.9416 million tons, down 389,800 tons week - on - week [30] Mine - Type Inventory - This section presents charts of the inventory of iron concentrate powder, pellets, coarse powder, and lump ore at 45 ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [31][33] Port Congestion - This section presents charts of the number of congested ships and congestion days at 45 ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [39] Steel Mill Inventory - As of June 20th, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 89.3624 million tons, up 1.3756 million tons week - on - week. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 19 days, 2 days less than the previous week [42] 4. Supply Side Australia and Brazil Shipments - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, Australian 19 - port shipments were 19.936 million tons, down 1 million tons week - on - week; Brazilian 19 - port shipments were 7.726 million tons, up 268,000 tons week - on - week [46] Global Shipments - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 1577,000 tons week - on - week to 33.527 million tons. Non - mainstream region shipments decreased by 845,000 tons week - on - week to 5.865 million tons [49] Four Major Mines - This section presents charts of the shipments of four major mines (FMG, VALE, BHP, RIO TINTO) to China, but no specific text analysis is provided [52][53] Arrivals at 45 Ports - From June 9th to June 15th, 2025, the arrivals at 45 ports in China decreased by 224,800 tons week - on - week to 23.845 million tons; the total arrivals at the six northern ports were 12.19 million tons, down 1.646 million tons week - on - week [59] Monthly Imports by Country - This section presents charts of China's iron ore import volume, imports from Australia, Brazil, and India, and imports of different mine types, but no specific text analysis is provided [63][64][66] Domestic Mine Supply - As of June 20th, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.45%, up 2.13% week - on - week; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 40030 tons, an increase of 1340 tons from the previous week [78] 5. Demand Side Hot Metal and Operating Rate - As of June 20th, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 83.82%, up 0.41% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal output increased by 5700 tons to 2.4218 million tons, ending a five - week decline, indicating strong resilience in hot metal demand and providing support for ore prices [81] Transaction Situation - This section presents charts of the daily average trading volume of iron ore forward spot and the total trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports, but no specific text analysis is provided [83] Port Clearance - As of June 20th, 2025, the daily average clearance volume at 45 ports was 3.1356 million tons, up 123,100 tons week - on - week [87] Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - This section presents charts of the production and consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coil, but no specific text analysis is provided [88][90] Long - Process and Short - Process - This section presents charts of the production of long - process and short - process rebar, but no specific text analysis is provided [97] Steel Mill Profitability and Coke Profit per Ton - As of June 20th, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 59.31%, up 0.87% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 23 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan/ton from the previous week [101]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level this week, but the overall storage volume was small and the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, coupled with the plum rain season in the South, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory reached a new high this year. Although it is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, the reduction in supply is limited, and the demand is weak. The egg price may fall to a new low this year [7]. - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is currently at a historical high, and the supply of eggs is under pressure in the medium term. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term but may have bottom support in the second half of the year [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - level Views and Strategies Fundamental Views - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the storage volume was small [7]. - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. The number of newly opened - production chickens was greater than the number of old chickens leaving the market. In June, the number of newly opened - production chickens is expected to decline slightly, and the laying rate of laying hens will decrease. The overall demand is in the off - season, and the egg price is under pressure [7]. Strategy Views and Outlook - The chicken - fry replenishment volume is at a high level, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure. The egg price may continue to decline in the near term. It is recommended to continue holding the short position of out - of - the - money call options for near - month contracts. For far - month contracts, pay attention to the support at the 3600 level of the 09 contract and consider going long lightly in case of an over - decline [9][10]. - The 08 contract has a large premium. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing up, with a short - term pressure level of 3700 [10]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas rebounded from a low level. The average price was 2.73 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from last week, a decline of 1.80%. The low - price area reported 2.60 yuan per catty. Cold storage and food enterprises made tentative purchases, but the support for the market was limited. Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the egg price is under pressure [7][17]. 3.3 Supply Side - In May, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.275 billion, a month - on - month increase of 1.76% and a year - on - year increase of 6.78%. It is expected that the laying - hen inventory will stop increasing in June, and the supply pressure may ease [29]. - In May, the total sales volume of chicken fry was 45.32 million, a month - on - month decrease of 3.66%. Although the sales volume decreased month - on - month, it was still at a high level. The supply pressure of eggs remains unchanged, and the egg price is under medium - term pressure [35]. - Due to low egg prices and rising feed costs, the enthusiasm for chicken culling has increased, but the number of cullable chickens is limited this month. The total culling volume of old hens this week was 539,100, a month - on - month decrease of 0.44% [40][43]. 3.4 Demand Side - The demand for eggs shows seasonal characteristics. The price usually reaches the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, and the highest level of the year in mid - to - late September [60]. - Currently in the seasonal off - season of demand, the terminal replenishment is cautious, and the overall demand lacks positive support [7]. 3.5 Cost Side - Corn prices are rising due to reduced supply and trade frictions. Although the supply of soybean meal will be alleviated, the feed cost of laying - hen farming is expected to rise in the medium term, providing bottom support for the egg price [65]. - The egg cost line is an important driving factor for price changes, and the egg price, cost, and profit are generally positively correlated [69]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - This week, the cost of laying - hen farming was 3.55 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 yuan per catty, an increase of 0.85%. The farming profit was - 0.82 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decrease of 0.08 yuan per catty, a decline of 8.89% [76].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the Shanghai tin market showed minor fluctuations with a weekly decline of 1.19%. On June 20, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 263,500 yuan/ton, with small futures price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - In May, refined tin production decreased slightly month - on - month, and the import of tin ore from January to April 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance to 17,500 tons, a 0.4% decrease in annual output. The resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has been inconsistent [11]. - Recently, the improvement in macro - trade disputes is expected to lead to a marginal improvement in demand. In May, the new energy sector maintained good demand, while the traditional sectors had mixed performance. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4%, and raised the inflation forecast to 3%. In May, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% [11]. - With the tin ore supply remaining tight, processing fees are weak, and overall, profits will remain low due to ore - end interference [11]. - LME, SHFE, and social inventories all decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - Considering the improvement in macro - trade disputes but inconsistent ore - end situations, and the price having returned to the level around the "Congo tin ore incident", with most of the supply - demand and macro - improvement expectations already reflected, there is currently limited driving force. Short - term range trading is recommended, with a reference range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, disturbances from Myanmar and Congo tin mines, trade negotiations, and consumption data verification [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Viewpoints and Strategies - **Price Trend**: The Shanghai tin market had minor fluctuations last week, with a 1.19% weekly decline. The spot price of 1 tin was 263,500 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, with small futures price fluctuations and little basis change [11]. - **Supply**: In May, refined tin production decreased slightly month - on - month. Tin ore imports from January to April 2025 dropped significantly year - on - year. Alphamin reduced its production guidance, and the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar has been inconsistent [11]. - **Demand**: The improvement in macro - trade disputes is expected to lead to a marginal improvement in demand. In May, the new energy sector had good demand, while the traditional sectors had mixed performance. The Fed's interest rate decision and economic data were also presented [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: With tight ore supply, processing fees are weak, and profits will remain low [11]. - **Inventory**: LME, SHFE, and social inventories all decreased week - on - week, which is conducive to inventory reduction [11]. - **Strategy**: Short - term range trading is recommended, with a reference range of 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton. Future focus should be on macro - measures, tin mine disturbances, trade negotiations, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - There is no specific content about the industrial chain structure other than the title in the provided text. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - There are figures about SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no detailed analysis content is provided [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of June 19, 2025, SHFE inventory was 6,613 tons, decreasing week - on - week. As of June 18, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,200 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week. As of June 13, 2025, refined tin social inventory was 8,947 tons, decreasing week - on - week [25][29]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - As of June 19, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton, remaining weak [33]. 3.6 Supply - In May 2025, refined tin production was 14,670 tons, decreasing slightly month - on - month. Domestic tin ore production in March was 5,628.49 tons, increasing month - on - month. In May 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 62.98%, slightly decreasing. There are also details about new production capacities in different countries and regions [38][41][43]. 3.7 Demand - In May 2025, China's automobile production was 2.642 million units, a 11.3% year - on - year increase; electronic computer production was 32.013 million units, a 10.8% year - on - year increase; PVC production was 2.0195 million tons, increasing month - on - month; mobile electronic communication production was 113.683 million units, a 7.2% year - on - year decrease; air - conditioner production was 30.833 million units, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; refrigerator production was 851,000 units, a 3.3% year - on - year decrease; washing machine production was 9.412 million units, a 1.6% year - on - year increase; color TV production was 15.764 million units, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease; solar cell production was 70.569 million kilowatts, a 27.8% year - on - year increase; and integrated circuit production was 4.235 billion pieces, an 11.5% year - on - year increase [49][54][57]. 3.8 Import and Export - From January to April 2025, China imported tin ore of 9,842 tons, 8,745 tons, 8,322.5 tons, and 9,861.25 tons respectively; imported tin of 2,334 tons, 1,869 tons, 2,100 tons, and 1,128 tons respectively; and exported refined tin of 2,131 tons, 2,373 tons, 1,714.6 tons, and 1,678.1 tons respectively [67]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table - It shows the supply - demand balance of tin from 2017 - 2025E, including China's production, overseas production, global supply, China's demand, overseas demand, global demand, and global supply - demand balance [70].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold [6] Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the gold market from multiple aspects including price trends, inflation, interest rates, supply - demand, and the US economy. It concludes that while the gold market has an upward impetus due to the ongoing Israel - Iran conflict and the continuous presence of its hedging property, factors such as the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. Overall, the long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged [4][6] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Trends - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indexes have been 28.44% and 26.07% respectively, and last week they decreased by 1.83% and 1.99% respectively [4][16] 2. Inflation - In June 2022, the CPI data reached a new high of 9.1% and then declined moderately. The PCE also peaked and declined in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since February 2024, the CPI rebounded for the first time, and the decline rate of core inflation slowed down or even rebounded. In May 2025, the US CPI increased by 2.4% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.5%, and the previous value was 2.3%. The core CPI was 2.8% year - on - year, with an expected 2.9% and a previous value of 2.8%. In April 2025, the core PCE price index increased by 2.5% year - on - year, in line with expectations and slower than the previous revised value of 2.7%. The PCE price index increased by 2.1% year - on - year, lower than the expected 2.2% and the previous value of 2.3% [4][19] 3. Interest Rates - From mid - to late October 2023, the interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds fluctuated downward until January 2025. Since February 2024, the US treasury bond interest rate has fluctuated and rebounded, then fluctuated and declined near last year's high, and recently fluctuated widely near the 2024 low [4][22] 4. Supply - Demand - When the gold supply - demand is in a tight balance, it is conducive to the rise of the gold price, but when it is in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand looseness decreased, mainly due to a large increase in investment demand. In 2024, the domestic gold supply increased slightly year - on - year, and the demand decreased significantly year - on - year, but the domestic gold supply - demand was still in a tight balance, mainly due to a large increase in gold bars and coins. In the first quarter of 2025, investment demand increased significantly [4][34] 5. US Economy - In May 2025, the number of new jobs in the US was 139,000, higher than the market expectation of 130,000. The data from January to April was revised downward. In May 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.4% compared with the previous value of 0.3%, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%. The non - farm employment data in May 2025 continued to be better than expected. The US GDP in the first quarter of 2025 increased by 2.06% year - on - year, a decrease of 0.47%. The ISM manufacturing PMI in May 2025 was 48.5, declining for four consecutive months, and the non - manufacturing PMI was 49.9, dropping significantly again, perhaps affected by reciprocal tariffs [4][30] 6. Strategy and Outlook - The gold futures main contract continued its weak adjustment last Friday. The Israel - Iran conflict remained moderate. As long as the conflict persists, the hedging property of gold remains. Therefore, the report maintains a cautious and optimistic stance on the short - term rise of gold, and investors should pay attention to the pressure at the previous high. However, the continuous decline of US inflation, the delay of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the stabilization of the US dollar index suppress the rise of gold. The current main contradiction in the gold market is the hedging function of gold. The long - term upward view of gold remains unchanged. Technically, the support level for Shanghai Gold is 775 - 780 yuan. It is recommended to hold existing long positions for observation, and those with empty positions are advised to go long. For options, it is recommended to mainly buy call options [6] 7. Central Bank Gold Transactions - In the first quarter of 2025, the global central bank's gold purchase volume decreased compared with the fourth quarter of last year but still had a net purchase of 243.67 tons. From November 2022 to April 2024, the People's Bank of China continuously purchased gold. After six consecutive months without gold purchases, it continuously purchased gold from November 2024 to April 2025, with a total purchase of 44.16 tons since 2024. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons. In the first quarter of 2025, the central bank purchased 12.75 tons, 2.18 tons in April, and 1.87 tons in May [37] 8. ETF Demand - In 2023, the gold holding of ETFs decreased by 113.69 tons. In 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons. As of June 20, last week, the gold ETFs significantly increased their holdings by 11.74 tons, and the gold holding in 2025 increased by 116.04 tons [40] 9. Exchange Rates and Dollar Index - The report does not provide specific analysis conclusions on exchange rates and the dollar index, only presenting relevant data charts 10. Gold Price Spread and Ratio - Last week, the spread between the domestic and foreign gold markets was at a normal level. The report also presented charts of the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio but did not provide specific analysis conclusions [62]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Macro**: The Federal Reserve kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4.25%-4.50% in June, with reduced but still high uncertainty. It lowered the 2025 GDP forecast to 1.4% and raised the inflation expectation to 3%. In May, China's industrial added - value and retail sales increased by 5.8% and 6.4% respectively. The international crude oil market is re - evaluating prices due to the tense Middle - East situation [7]. - **Supply**: In 2025, the RKAB approval provides sufficient raw materials for smelters, but policy risks remain. In May, China's ferronickel production increased slightly, and Indonesia's remained high. Sulfuric acid nickel enterprises' operating rate decreased, and production in May decreased month - on - month. In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons, a slight decrease [7]. - **Demand**: In May, stainless steel demand was suppressed, and domestic stainless steel inventory exceeded 1 million tons. In the new energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, and the production of ternary materials in May was at a low level [7]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME and SHFE nickel inventories increased slightly, while refined nickel social inventory decreased slightly to 37,008 tons [7]. - **View**: In the short term, although the RKAB approval provides raw materials, policy risks and the increase in Indonesia's privilege use fee for nickel resources raise supply costs. The short - term improvement in macro - trade disputes has a positive impact, but the nickel price lacks strong drivers due to large stainless steel inventories and energy cost fluctuations [7]. - **Strategy**: Trade the SHFE nickel 2508 contract short - term. Sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to changes in the ore end, stainless steel production, and trade disputes [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (laterite nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, ferronickel, high - grade nickel matte, sulfuric acid nickel, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [9]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - The report presents charts of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 months in USD/ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main contract basis (CNY/ton) [11]. 3.3. Supply Side - **Nickel Ore**: In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly by 21.7% to 36.5763 million tons. In 2025, imports from January to April were 911,900 tons, 1.146 million tons, 1.535 million tons, and 2.914 million tons respectively [19]. - **Nickel Pig Iron**: In 2024, Indonesia's ferronickel production was 1.5138 million nickel tons, a 5.9% increase. In May 2025, it was 157,700 tons, a slight decrease. In 2024, China's ferronickel production was 296,400 nickel tons, a 20.9% decrease. In May 2025, it was 24,000 tons, a slight increase [22]. - **Refined Nickel**: In May 2025, China's refined nickel production was 35,995 tons. In April 2025, the apparent consumption was 39,373.3 tons [29]. - **Nickel Imports and Exports**: From January to April 2025, China's nickel imports were 234,000 tons, 185,000 tons, 219,000 tons, and 186,800 tons respectively, showing a decline from high levels. Exports from January to April were 17,000 tons, 23,000 tons, 16,000 tons, and 20,300 tons respectively [32]. 3.4. Intermediates - **Wet - Process Intermediates**: In May 2025, Indonesia's MHP production was 39,300 tons, reaching a historical high [36]. - **High - Grade Nickel Matte**: In 2024, Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte production was 267,000 tons, an 8.54% increase. In April - May 2025, production was 12,000 tons and 11,700 tons respectively. There are many planned intermediate production capacities from 2025 - 2027 [41]. - **Sulfuric Acid Nickel**: In May 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel production was 29,850 tons, a decrease. From January to April 2025, imports of nickel sulfate were 14,021.9 tons, 16,421.4 tons, 18,380 tons, and 32,604 tons respectively [45]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Stainless Steel Demand**: In 2024, the production of 43 stainless steel sample enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a 7.43% increase. In May 2025, production was 3.4629 million tons, returning to a high level. The latest total social inventory was 1,109,090 tons, a slight increase [49]. - **Positive Electrode Material Demand**: In 2024, the production of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a 1.5% decrease. The market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20%. In May 2025, the production of ternary positive electrode materials was 60,700 tons, at a low level [53]. 3.6. Inventory Side - **Social and Bonded Area Inventory**: As of June 13, 2025, the refined nickel social inventory was 37,008 tons, a decrease [56]. - **Exchange Inventory**: As of June 18, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 204,936 tons, a slight increase. As of June 19, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 21,765 tons, a slight increase [62].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (June 13 - June 20, 2025), the spot price of industrial silicon started to stop falling and rise slightly, with the benchmark spot price reaching 7,635 yuan/ton on June 20, 2025, up 1.3% from 7,537 yuan/ton on June 13. In the futures market, the main contract of industrial silicon continued to rebound but did not break through last week's high, with the highest transaction price at 7,565 yuan/ton and the latest transaction price at 7,390 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 1.51%. The main contract's open interest was about 305,500 lots, and trading volume increased[8]. - The supply of industrial silicon has increased. In the southwest region, some enterprises do not plan to start furnaces due to low market prices and high inventory, while a few enterprises with electricity subsidies have increased furnace starts. In the northwest region, the number of silicon furnaces has increased, mainly due to increased production by large enterprises. Overall, the total number of furnace starts has increased this week, and the market supply is sufficient, mainly in the northwest region. There is still pressure on the supply side, even though most 99 - grade silicon producers have shut down for maintenance[8]. - The demand for industrial silicon is weak. The photovoltaic industry association has reported "self - disciplined" production cuts, which is a significant negative for the end - market. Most polysilicon producers are operating at reduced loads, with mixed production schedules. The silicon powder market has few tenders, and the purchasing enthusiasm is low, so the industrial silicon price has limited room for increase. The aluminum alloy industry's demand for industrial silicon is average, and exports have decreased. In May 2025, China's industrial silicon exports were 55,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.02% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.47%. From January to May 2025, China's total industrial silicon exports were 272,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.31%[8]. - The overall production cost of industrial silicon is stable, and it is expected that the electricity cost in various regions will further decline in July. The spot profit is stable, and the futures profit has increased due to the rising futures price[8]. - This week, the standard warehouse receipt inventory was mostly in a destocking state. Silicon powder enterprises made small - scale stockpiling, but due to the rising futures price, some silicon powder factories reduced their demand. Due to the adjustment of the current spot - futures basis, there was a small release of 421 - grade warehouse receipts[8]. - Looking ahead, the overall production in the southwest region has slightly increased, downstream demand remains weak, and there is a supply - demand mismatch for different grades. It is expected that the price will still be more likely to fall than rise[8]. - The report suggests that investors should short the 2509 contract on rallies or sell out - of - the - money call options when volatility is low. Traders or upstream enterprises are advised to sell call options to protect their inventory[8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - on - Week Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: The China Photovoltaic Industry Association is discussing "production cuts to maintain prices," with expected production cuts of 10% - 15% in the third quarter. Strict policies against "below - cost sales" and "substandard product sales" will be implemented. The National Development and Reform Commission's governance ideas for "involution - style competition" are in line with the current difficulties in the industrial silicon industry. There are rumors that Tongwei is promoting measures such as capacity acquisition and storage, and the government may introduce policies to re - position photovoltaics as energy products. In 2025, the US - China tariff war continued, and the National Energy Administration released the "2025 Energy Work Guidance Opinion"[7]. - **Week - on - Week Views**: As mentioned above, covering price trends, supply, demand, cost - profit, inventory, outlook, and trading strategies[8]. 2. Industry Structure - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, and silicon ore, and downstream products such as organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy, which are widely used in electronics, construction, and other industries[11]. 3. Spot and Futures Markets - Multiple charts show the spot prices of different grades of industrial silicon (such as 553 and 421) in different regions (e.g., Tianjin Port, Kunming Port), as well as the closing and settlement prices of continuous and active futures contracts[13][24][33]. 4. Inventory - Charts display the inventory of industrial silicon in the industry, factories, the market, and futures, with data sources from Baichuan Yingfu and the research institute[48][50]. 5. Cost and Profit - Charts show the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon, electricity prices in major and non - major production areas, the prices of raw materials such as silicon ore, petroleum coke, and electrodes, and the cost and profit of polysilicon[57][61][93]. 6. Supply - Charts present the weekly and monthly production of industrial silicon, the operating rate, and monthly production capacity. There are also plans for new production capacity in multiple enterprises in Xinjiang, Yunnan, and Inner Mongolia, with a total planned new capacity of 3 million tons[110][114][117]. 7. Demand - Charts show the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon, the production, price, inventory, and cost - profit of polysilicon, the price, production, cost, and profit of organic silicon, the production, inventory, and operating rate of aluminum alloy, and the production and price of solar cells[120][124][133]. 8. Import and Export - Charts display the import and export volumes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, with data from the General Administration of Customs[174][179].