Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side still exerts strong pressure on egg prices, and overcapacity remains the core issue in the egg market. Egg prices are expected to continue to face downward pressure. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. The medium - to - long - term process of capacity reduction will determine the probability of a market reversal [7][8]. - Although there are expectations of improved demand in the egg spot market at the end of the year, considering the current egg - laying hen inventory and structure, the supply side still strongly suppresses prices [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints**: The average price of eggs in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per catty from the previous week, a decline of 1.70%. The cost of production and the reluctance to sell in the breeding link support the egg price. The "Double 11" promotion accelerated the sales of eggs, and the price stopped falling and stabilized. In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to decrease. The inventory of laying hens in November is shrinking, but the supply - side pressure on prices remains strong [7]. - **Outlook**: Supply pressure persists, and overcapacity is the core problem. It is recommended to hold short positions in out - of - the - money call options on near - month contracts. Pay attention to the slaughter of old hens and the medium - to - long - term capacity reduction process [8]. - **Strategy**: The main contract fluctuates widely at a low level, with a reference range of 3000 - 3300. Options can sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - **Spot Price**: The spot price of eggs in the main producing areas fluctuated widely this week. The average price in the main producing areas was 2.91 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.70% from the previous week. Production costs and reluctance to sell supported the price, and the "Double 11" promotion led to price stabilization [18]. 3.3 Supply Side - **Inventory of Laying Hens**: In October 2025, the national inventory of laying hens was about 1.311 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.15% and a year - on - year increase of 8.89%. The number of newly - opened laying hens decreased in October, and the inventory decreased slightly but remained at a high level in the past five - year average [27]. - **Replenishment Volume**: The number of newly - opened laying hens in October decreased due to the off - season of replenishment and low egg prices. The number of newly - opened laying hens in November is expected to continue to decrease as the chicken - chick sales in July declined significantly [33]. - **Price of Culled Hens**: The average price of old hens this week was 4.12 yuan per catty, a decline of 1.67% from the previous week. The price decline slowed down. It is expected that the price will be difficult to rise or fall next week, with an average weekly price of about 4.15 yuan per catty [36]. - **Slaughter of Culled Hens**: After the double festivals, the demand weakened, and the egg and culled - hen prices fell. The breeding industry suffered losses, and the slaughter volume and age of culled hens increased. In October, the average slaughter age was 497 days, 2 days earlier than in September, and the total slaughter volume was 2.6675 million, a month - on - month increase of 8.69% [39]. - **Inventory**: The production - link inventory increased significantly. The market lacks confidence in the future, which is negative for egg prices. However, due to improved storage conditions, there may be some bottom - fishing storage expectations [44]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Demand Seasonality**: Egg prices show obvious seasonal characteristics. They usually reach the lowest level around April, the highest level in late May, decline in June, rise in late July, reach the annual high in mid - to - late September, decline after September and October, and stabilize from November to December [56]. 3.5 Cost Side - **Feed Price**: Egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices, and egg price, cost, and profit are mostly positively correlated [61]. - **Breeding Cost**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.41 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 0.29%. The breeding profit was - 0.50 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 10.71%. It is expected that the breeding profit in October will decline [65]. - **Breeding Profit**: This week, the egg - laying hen breeding cost was 3.43 yuan per catty, a month - on - month increase of 0.59%. The breeding profit was - 0.52 yuan per catty, a month - on - month decline of 13.04% [71].

Report Title - "Hualian Futures Rebar Weekly Report: Weak Demand, Rebar Prices Weakly Operating" [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased at a slower rate compared to the previous period, with hot-rolled coils slightly accumulating inventory and other varieties slightly reducing inventory [8] - The profitability rate of steel mills dropped to the lowest point of the year, and the production cut efforts of steel mills increased. In addition, the environmental protection restrictions in some areas became stricter, leading to limited production in some steel mills. The daily average pig iron output continued to decline, and the output of the five major steel products decreased slightly [8] - The total apparent demand of the five major steel products decreased compared to the previous period. The demand is gradually shifting to the traditional off-season, which has an adverse impact on construction consumption. In addition, the latest single-month steel exports in October showed a year-on-year negative growth, and the impact of overseas trade barriers is gradually emerging, with demand likely to weaken marginally [8] - Recently, the profitability of steel mills has been poor, the steel profit has been continuously narrowing, and the production cut efforts of steel mills have increased. The steel supply has significantly contracted, and the supply pressure has been relieved. The downstream demand has shown a seasonal marginal weakening, with a decrease in demand from the construction and manufacturing industries. Coupled with the pressure on external demand exports, both supply and demand have weakened. Currently, the weak industrial supply-demand fundamentals have significantly suppressed rebar prices, and rebar prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [8] - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3080 [8] Summary by Section 1. Data Overview - **Supply**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13% (a month-on-month increase of 1.38%), the capacity utilization rate was 87.81% (a month-on-month decrease of 0.80%), the profitability rate was 39.83% (a month-on-month decrease of 5.19%), and the daily average pig iron output was 2.3422 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 11,400 tons). The operating rate of 90 independent electric furnaces was 67.03% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.8%), the capacity utilization rate was 50.87% (a month-on-month decrease of 1.12%), and the scrap consumption was 249,900 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 13,100 tons). The total output of the five major steel products was 8.5674 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 185,500 tons), including 2.0854 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 40,500 tons), 864,700 tons of wire rod (a month-on-month decrease of 33,400 tons), 3.1816 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 54,000 tons), 838,400 tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 21,300 tons), and 1.5973 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 36,300 tons) [10] - **Demand**: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 96,000 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 3,600 tons), the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 19,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 1,100 tons), the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 136,700 tons), the apparent demand for hot-rolled coils was 3.143 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 175,900 tons), the apparent demand for wire rods was 888,300 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 102,300 tons), the apparent demand for cold-rolled coils was 853,200 tons (a month-on-month decrease of 36,900 tons), and the apparent demand for medium and heavy plates was 1.5994 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 43,100 tons) [10] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.0357 million tons (a month-on-month decrease of 101,700 tons), including 5.9254 million tons of rebar (a month-on-month decrease of 99,800 tons), 4.1045 million tons of hot-rolled coils (a month-on-month increase of 38,600 tons), 1.3069 million tons of wire rod inventory (a month-on-month decrease of 23,800 tons), 1.745 million tons of cold-rolled coils (a month-on-month decrease of 14,800 tons), and 1.9539 million tons of medium and heavy plates (a month-on-month decrease of 2,100 tons) [10] 2. Futures and Spot Market - As of November 7, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3,034 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3,245 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 156 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot-rolled coils was 15 yuan/ton [17] - As of November 7, 2025, the RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at -63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at -15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was -70 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was -211 yuan/ton [33]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core View of the Report - In the short term, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely before the palm oil production in the producing areas decreases and the US biodiesel policy is postponed for release [3] - The report suggests that for single - sided trading, the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit. For arbitrage, it is advisable to wait and see [5] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental View - **Soybean oil**: The rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. The import tariff of US soybeans is 13%, still higher than the 3% tariff of South American soybeans [3] - **Palm oil**: MPOA data shows that the palm oil production in Malaysia from October 1 - 31, 2025 increased by 12.31% month - on - month. ITS and Amspec data indicate that the expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 31 increased by 5.19% and 4.31% respectively compared with the same period last month. The large increase in Malaysian palm oil production makes the probability of inventory accumulation in October relatively high. Attention should be paid to the October MPOB report [3] - **Rapeseed oil**: With the import of Australian and Russian rapeseed into China later, the domestic supply of rapeseed oil is expected to increase. Attention should be paid to China's import of Australian rapeseed and rapeseed oil from other regions, as well as the progress of Indonesia's B50 and US biodiesel policies [3] Strategy View and Outlook - **Single - sided trading**: Suggest that the support level for palm oil 01 is 8400 - 8500, and for soybean oil 01 is 8000 - 8100. For options, the put option buyers of palm oil should take profit and exit [5] - **Arbitrage**: It is advisable to wait and see [5] - **Outlook**: Attention should be paid to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices. Overall, fats and oils are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [5] Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, fats and oils fluctuated widely. The soybean - palm oil spread, rapeseed - palm oil spread, and rapeseed - soybean oil spread all fluctuated widely, and it is recommended to wait and see [12][17] Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: According to the September MPOB report, the palm oil inventory in Malaysia in September increased significantly to 2.361 million tons, much higher than expected. The production decreased slightly, but the decline was less than market expectations. The export increased month - on - month to 1.4276 million tons, in line with market expectations. The apparent consumption was 333,400 tons, a significant decrease compared with the previous month. This report is bearish [30] - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [31] - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: Data on import volume, crushing volume, and inventory are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [41] - **Domestic palm oil**: Data on import volume are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [51] Demand Side - Data on the trading volume of fats and oils are presented through charts, but no specific analysis is provided in the text [54] Inventory - As of October 31, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions across the country was 1.2158 million tons, a decrease of 34,500 tons (2.76%) from the previous week and an increase of 83,300 tons (7.36%) year - on - year. The commercial inventory of palm oil in key regions across the country was 592,800 tons, a decrease of 14,300 tons (2.36%) from the previous week and an increase of 87,400 tons (17.29%) compared with 505,400 tons last year [63] - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major oil mills in coastal areas was 0 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 38,000 tons, a decrease of 4,000 tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week [66] Disk Import Profit - As of November 7, 2025, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the December shipment was - 215 yuan/ton [70]

Report Information - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Rubber Weekly - Weak Demand Drags Down Rubber Prices" [2] - Date: 20251109 [2] - Analyst: Li Zhaofeng [2] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The real estate market continues to decline and needs to stabilize. The Fed's potential interest - rate cuts are favorable for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be watched out for [4]. - The long - term supply cycle is shifting, which boosts valuation, but supply is elastic. The current year's natural rubber production areas have better weather conditions than last year, and the supply is expected to be stable, with a projected 0.5% increase in global production and a 10% increase in China's imports [4]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. Qingdao's dry rubber inventory has recently increased due to concentrated shipping schedules, and there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [4]. - Demand has been over - drawn by export rush and replacement demand. The real estate market shows no signs of improvement, and new vehicle and export demand are also weakening. Without strong policy support or inflation, demand will likely drag down the market [4]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on ru and short on nr, and to pay attention to the supply volume during the peak production season [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price - Natural rubber spot prices have weakened, with only a limited rebound from the previous low and still at a low level. Synthetic rubber prices have hit a new low for the year, deviating from the trends of natural rubber and crude oil [6]. - The ru basis is at a multi - year high, and the monthly spread has strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions [12]. - The ru 1 - 9 monthly spread has weakened to - 125 but is still stronger than last year. The nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around - 35 and has weakened. The br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 monthly spread is around 75 and has limited rebound momentum [17]. - The spread between spot whole latex and 20 - grade rubber has rebounded slightly from a low level, and synthetic rubber Br has weakened significantly compared to natural rubber [22]. Raw Material Prices - Thai raw material prices have stabilized marginally, and the weak spread between glue and cup lump suggests stable supply. Currently, the global market is in the peak production season with slightly more rainfall [27]. - Domestic raw material prices show that the absolute price of old whole latex has returned to the key range before last year's rally but is still at a medium level in recent years, and production incentives are still acceptable [10]. Processing Profits - Recent processing profits have declined again [32]. Inventory - Qingdao's dry rubber inventory increased in the latest week mainly due to concentrated shipping schedules. The overall current inventory is not high, but there is an expectation of further inventory build - up in the future. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high [37]. - The exchange's ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts were once at an extremely low level. The nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a multi - year high in the third quarter of last year and are still at a multi - year low [47][53]. - The synthetic rubber inventory is neutral. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber rebounded after reaching a two - year low, and the trader inventory dropped to a low level [56]. - The inventory of all - steel tires and semi - steel tires has decreased marginally [59]. Supply Side - According to ANRPC, the global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.95 million tons in 2025 [63][65]. - China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [68]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to factors such as EU eudr diversion, overseas inventory replenishment, and reduced arbitrage demand. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) reached 5.373 million tons, a 19% increase compared to the same period in 2024. In August 2025, imports were 664,000 tons, a 7.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, but the growth rate has slowed down marginally [71]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - demand surplus has arrived, and the suppression of yield by production capacity has disappeared. The production capacity of natural rubber has reached an inflection point, providing a more solid bottom support, but production is affected by various factors such as weather, pests, and profit margins [81]. Demand Side - The operating rate of all - steel tires has remained stable and is at a medium level in recent years, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires is neutral [89]. - As of September 2025, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire outer - tube production was about 1.5%, with a marginal slight decline and a significantly slower growth rate compared to last year. As of September, the cumulative year - on - year increase in tire export volume was about 5.4%, which is relatively good but also lower than last year [93]. - In September 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new energy), a 15% increase from August and an 82% increase compared to the same period last year. The large - scale infrastructure projects are beneficial for the long - term demand for heavy - trucks [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales have performed well due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are generally weak, and trade protectionism may further affect the market [102]. - Overall overseas automobile sales are mediocre, and trade wars have disrupted the consumption rhythm [105]. - The real estate market data from January to September 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, it will take time for the market to reverse [120]. - Road freight volume has been stable but is still lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and the substitution effect of railway and waterway transportation [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - In October 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices down 2.9% and non-food prices up 0.9%. The average CPI from January to October decreased by 0.1% compared to the same period last year [4]. - The national producer price index (PPI) for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the month-on-month change turned from flat to an increase of 0.1%. The average PPI from January to October decreased by 2.7% compared to the same period last year, and the purchase price of industrial producers decreased by 3.2% [4]. - China's gold reserves at the end of October 2025 were 74.09 million ounces, an increase of 300,000 ounces from the end of August, showing a continuous increase for 12 months. The scale of foreign exchange reserves at the end of October was US$3.3433 trillion, an increase of US$470 million from the end of September, with a growth rate of 0.14% [4]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. The operating income was 102.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [5]. - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, a significant decrease of 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a seasonal decline in the manufacturing prosperity level. The non-manufacturing business activity index was 50.1%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, rising to the expansion range [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs National Economic Accounting - The GDP quarterly year-on-year growth rates from Q2 2023 to Q3 2025 were 6.5%, 5%, 5.3%, 5.3%, 4.7%, 4.6%, 5.4%, 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8% respectively. Different industries showed varying growth trends during this period [7]. - The contributions of different industries to the GDP growth rate also changed over time. For example, the contribution of the primary industry, secondary industry, and tertiary industry to the constant-price GDP year-on-year growth rate and the pull effect on GDP showed different trends from 2013 to 2025 [13]. Industry - The year-on-year growth rates of added value in different industries showed fluctuations. For example, the coal mining and washing industry, oil and gas extraction industry, and other industries had different growth rates from August 2024 to September 2025 [22]. - The output of major industrial products also showed different trends. For example, the output of crude oil, coal, steel, and other products changed from September 2024 to September 2025 [24]. - In September 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 888.6 billion kilowatt-hours, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%. The electricity consumption of different industries also showed different growth trends [31]. - From January to September 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 5.3732 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%. Different industries had different profit growth rates, with some industries showing growth and others showing decline [5][35]. - As of the end of September 2025, the finished product inventory of industrial enterprises above designated size was 6.71 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%. The inventory turnover days were 20.2 days, an increase of 0.2 days compared to the same period last year [5]. Price Index - In October 2025, the CPI increased by 0.2% year-on-year, with food prices having a significant impact on the CPI decline. Different CPI sub-items showed different year-on-year and month-on-month changes [4][49]. - The PPI for industrial products decreased by 2.1% year-on-year in October 2025, with the decline narrowing. Different industries' PPI also showed different trends, with production materials prices generally declining more than living materials prices [56]. - The purchase price of industrial producers also showed different trends, with some categories such as fuel and power showing a decline, while others such as non-ferrous metal materials and wires showing an increase [60].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term market is in a phase of shock digestion, but the medium - term shock - climbing pattern remains unchanged. The market has entered an event vacuum period after short - term positive events, but the positive logic still exists. With the increase in incremental funds and the stabilization of listed company performance, the medium - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended to hold the remaining long positions in the medium - term and add positions opportunistically, and buy call options on the options [8][9]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Viewpoints Market Performance - Last week, the broader market rebounded after hitting a low, with most of the four major indices rising slightly, and the large - cap stock indices performed well. In terms of style indices, the cycle and stable style indices had the largest increases, followed by the financial style index, while the consumer index declined slightly. Among Shenwan industries, most industries rose, with cyclical sectors such as electrical equipment, coal, steel, and chemical leading the gains, and industries such as computer, pharmaceutical biology, automobile, and food and beverage leading the losses [4][13][15]. Economic Data - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The National Day holiday may have had an impact. Both supply and demand in the manufacturing PMI contracted in October, with production falling by 2.2% and new orders by 0.9%, and both ex - factory prices and raw material purchase prices continued to decline by 0.7%. The medium - and long - term credit growth rate has continued to decline to 6.30% as of September 2025, after rising from the low point in August 2022 and reaching the high point in May 2023 [4][26]. Policy - The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize, boosting the capital market. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools, cut the reserve requirement ratio, and lowered interest rates, and reduced the interest rates of existing mortgages. The CSRC proposed measures such as mergers and acquisitions and market value management to increase market activity. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market each year [4]. Performance - A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indices rebounded again [4][51][54]. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively high valuation, with a PE of 16.6467, an upper - limit value of 15.60, and at the 89.06 percentile since 2010. The ChiNext valuation is relatively low [5][63][64]. 2. Capital Flow - In terms of margin trading, there was a net inflow of 274.8 billion yuan in 2024, and as of November 6, 2025, the net inflow in 2025 was 681.5 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 600 million yuan in the first five trading days. The total scale of private funds increased by 835.7 billion yuan this year, and the newly registered scale was 343 billion yuan. In the second quarter of 2025, the market value of A - share stocks and funds held by insurance funds increased by 251.3 billion yuan, and in the first half of 2025, it increased by 641.9 billion yuan. From April 7 to November 5, 2025, the ETF scale increased by 106.8 billion yuan, with an increase of 8.9 billion yuan last week. As of November 5, the net inflow of ETF funds this year was 9.8 billion yuan. As of September 30, 2025, the newly established share of stock - type funds was 323.3 billion yuan, and that of hybrid funds was 103.6 billion yuan [6][68][70]. 3. Index and Industry Trend Review - In terms of index trends, last week, most of the four major indices rose slightly, with the large - cap stock indices performing well. Among style indices, the cycle and stable style indices had the largest increases, followed by the financial style index, while the consumer index declined slightly. Among Shenwan industries, most industries rose, with cyclical sectors leading the gains and some consumer and technology - related industries leading the losses [4][13][15]. 4. Policy and Economy - In October 2025, the manufacturing PMI declined, and the non - manufacturing PMI rose slightly. The PPI has shown fluctuations in its decline rate, and in September, industrial enterprise revenue and inventory both increased for the first time. In September 2025, China's social financing scale decreased year - on - year, and the growth rate of medium - and long - term loans continued to decline. A series of policies have been introduced, including promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market, creating new monetary policy tools, and implementing interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts [26][31][34]. 5. Earnings of Each Index - A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and rebound in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indices rebounded again [51][54]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index has a relatively high valuation, while the ChiNext valuation is relatively low [63][64]. 7. Capital Flow Details - Margin trading, private funds, insurance funds, and ETF funds have all shown different trends in capital inflows and outflows. In the secondary market, major shareholders had a large - scale net reduction of holdings last week, and the scale of restricted - share unlockings was small in November [6][68][99]. 8. Technical Analysis - The four major indices are in a state of shock, and their trends are presented through relevant charts [102][107][111].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PTA周报 供需尚可 短时估值驱动走强 20251109 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 周度观点 供应：上周PTA周均产能利用率77.90%，环比降低0.48个百分点，同比降低1.34个百分点，处在同期中性位。周内 中泰化学重启，独山能源新装置投产，一套老装置停车，英力士周末停车。但年内已新投产能570万吨，产量新高。 需求：上周聚酯行业产量155.50万吨，环比增加0.32%，同比增加4.22%。截至11月6日江浙地区化纤织造综合开工 率69.45%，环比提升0.45个百分点，同比提升0.41个百分点。据隆众，终端表现按需采购为主。 库存：上周PTA行业库存量约316.08万吨，环比增加0.81%。PTA工厂库存4.09天，环比增加0.06天，同比增加0.17 天。库存端社库小幅累库但行业总体库存偏低，下游产品库存中性水位。 观点：TA现货加工费维持低位，产品亏损有所收窄。成本端原油震荡，TA估值驱动反复。供需总体尚可，短线受 消息面联合减产影响震荡偏强，关注后期是否有减产实质落地 ...

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Coking Coal and Coke Weekly Report: Tight Supply on the Supply Side, Limited Downward Adjustment Space for Coking Coal and Coke" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Last week, market sentiment cooled, and the black chain weakened. Coking coal and coke were relatively strong in the black chain, with a small correction range. The supply of coking coal is tight due to factors such as mine over - production checks and stricter safety supervision policies, but the demand is weak as steel mills' profits are poor, blast furnace maintenance has expanded, and hot metal production has continued to decline. Overall, the short - term weakening of demand puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to the tight supply of coking coal and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] Summary by Directory 1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Supply**: For coking coal, last week, the coal mine开工率 decreased week - on - week, and coking coal production slightly declined. Factors such as over - production checks, safety, and environmental protection restricted the supply elasticity of coking coal. For coke, the supply was tight, and the capacity utilization rate continued to decline. On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking plants was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 63.59 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons [4] - **Demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline. The profit rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week. The third round of coke price increase was implemented, and coking profits improved slightly, but most coking enterprises still suffered serious losses. The supply of coke was tight, steel mills' profits were poor, blast furnace maintenance increased, and hot metal production continued to decline [4] - **Inventory**: Last week, the inventory structure of coal mines improved week - on - week. On November 7, the raw coal inventory of 523 sample mines was 4.1924 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 123,700 tons. The downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing was good, and the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased by 175,400 tons week - on - week to 10.7002 million tons, while the coking coal inventory of steel mills slightly decreased. For coke, the coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week [4] - **Viewpoint**: Short - term demand weakness puts pressure on the upward movement of coking coal and coke prices, but due to tight coking coal supply and limited coal mine production release, the downward adjustment space for coking coal and coke is expected to be limited [4] - **Strategy**: Go long on the coking coal 2601 contract on dips, with a reference operating range of 1,200 - 1,350 yuan/ton [4] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content for analysis is provided in the given text 3. Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of coking coal futures contracts (DCE jm2601, jm2605), coke futures contracts (DCE j2601, j2605), the price differences between contracts 1 - 5 for coking coal and coke, as well as the spot prices of coking coal (including Port Mongolian 5 raw coal, Lvliang medium - sulfur main coking coal, etc.) and coke (including Lvliang quasi - first - grade coke, Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke, etc.) through charts [9][13][19][25] 4. Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory**: The inventory of 523 sample mines decreased week - on - week, the coking coal inventory of independent coking enterprises increased, and that of steel mills slightly decreased. Charts show the inventory trends of mines, ports, 247 steel mills, and all - sample independent coking enterprises [4][32][38] - **Coke Inventory**: The coke inventories of independent coking enterprises and steel mills both decreased week - on - week. Charts show the inventory trends of all - sample independent coking enterprises, 247 steel mills, ports, and all - sample coke [4][39] 5. Supply Side - **Coking Coal Import**: No detailed analysis content is provided, only charts of coking coal imports from different regions to China are presented [49] - **Coking Coal Production**: On November 7, the coking coal开工率 of 523 sample mines was 83.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.02%; the daily average raw coal output of 523 sample mines was 1.8633 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 40,000 tons [55] - **Coking Output**: On November 7, the capacity utilization rate of 230 coking enterprises was 71.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.9%; the daily average output of national independent coking enterprises was 635,900 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,000 tons. The capacity utilization rate and daily output of 247 steel mills' coke also decreased week - on - week [56][59] 6. Demand Side - **Hot Metal and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace开工率 of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, an increase of 1.38% from the previous week; the daily average hot metal production decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 2.3422 million tons, and hot metal production continued to decline [63] - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The report presents the production and consumption trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil through charts [64][66] - **Long - Process and Short - Process Production**: The report presents the production trends of long - process and short - process rebar through charts [73] - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit**: As of November 7, 2025, the profit rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a decrease of 5.19% from the previous week. The average profit per ton of coke was - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton from the previous week [76]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The macro - sentiment is changeable, causing greater fluctuations in polyolefins. The decline in crude oil weakens the cost - side drive. With large - scale capacity investment and high output, the supply side faces significant pressure. The downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level, demand falls short of expectations, and the end of the peak season and insufficient new orders may affect the continuous improvement of subsequent operations. Polyolefins maintain a pattern of strong supply and weak demand, and prices are expected to run weakly. Futures should be operated bearishly on a single - side basis, and straddle options should be sold [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Inventory**: China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 470,000 tons, with inventory expected to change from rising to falling. The new Guangxi Petrochemical plant has increased production, putting pressure on producers, who have an expectation of active de - stocking. The downstream factory operating rate is also expected to rise, and low prices are more attractive. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 580,000 tons, a decrease from the current period. Upstream enterprises are actively de - stocking, and the Double Eleven e - commerce festival drives downstream demand [6]. - **Supply**: This week, plants such as Zhenhai Refining & Chemical and Zhongtian Hechuang are planned to restart, and new plants of Sinopec Korea and Zhongsha Petrochemical are planned for maintenance. Coupled with the continuous increase in production from newly - invested plants, the domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. Some producers are still resuming operations, and the estimated loss volume continues to decline. Additionally, the 400,000 - ton/year new plant of Guangxi Petrochemical Phase II will start mass - production and sales soon, so the polypropylene output is expected to increase [6]. - **Demand**: The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly. The greenhouse film is still in the production peak season, but due to the gradual contraction of demand after the Frost's Descent, orders are mainly short - term small ones. The operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily, but after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations [6]. - **Industrial Chain Profit**: The profits of oil - based PE and PP, ethylene - based PE, and propylene - based PP are slightly in the red, and the loss of PDH - based PP is relatively large. The cost - side support is weakening [6]. 3.2 PP Single - Side Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. The price shows a downward trend, and as of November 6th, it was 6,471 yuan. The logic is that the new PP production capacity in 2025 is still large, and downstream demand remains weak. PP is expected to be relatively weak in the medium - to - long - term. The operation suggestion is to hold short positions [7]. 3.3 L - P Arbitrage Strategy - Strategy: Long the L - P spread (on hold). The price shows a volatile trend. For the 2601 contract, as of November 6th, it was 334 yuan. The driving force is not strong, and the operation suggestion is to wait and see [10]. 3.4 Supply Side - **PE Production**: The domestic polyethylene supply is increasing. The total output in the next period is expected to be 667,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons from the current total output. The plastic industry has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past five years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12.8%. In 2024, the capacity base was 3.571 million tons, and the new capacity was 340,000 tons. In 2025, the planned new PE production capacity is 605,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [6][83][90]. - **PP Production**: The total output of Chinese polypropylene is estimated to be 818,000 tons, continuing to increase. In 2024, China's PP realized production capacity was about 3.45 million tons, with a capacity base of 4.321 million tons, an 8.6% increase from 2023. In 2025, the planned new PP production capacity is 1.2805 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29%, but considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume is relatively limited [6][89][91]. 3.5 Demand Side - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has increased slightly, and the operating rate of PP downstream industries is rising steadily. However, after the e - commerce activities end, insufficient new orders may affect the continuous increase in subsequent operations. The report also presents data on the operating rates of various downstream industries of PE and PP, as well as the production and export volumes of related products such as plastics, automobiles, and home appliances [6][94].

审核：萧勇辉 从业资格号：F03091536 交易咨询号：Z0019917 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货PVC周报 供需延续弱势 盘面继续探底 20251109 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 周度观点及策略 周度观点 供应：上周PVC上游开工率80.75%，环比提升2.49个百分点，同比提升2.67个百分点，处在同期偏高位。主要是部分 电石法企业开工率增加。在年内新增产能不断释放背景下，供应依旧承压。 需求：上周管材开工率明显走弱，主要是北方地区部分降负荷。型材开工率暂持稳。总体终端需求逐步步进入季节 性淡季。加之宏观房地产行业仍较低迷，需求将继续承压。出口方面，受印度政策影响亦存压力，关注后期出口数 据变化。 库存：上周国内PVC社会库存（41 家）104.14万吨，环比增加1.12%，同比增加26.40%。企业库存33.46万吨，环比 降低1.0%，同比降低13.05%。据隆众，下游维持刚需采购，拿货积极性一般，出口市场放缓，在途库存陆续抵达， 导致社库增加。仓单库存维持高位。 观点：成本方面电石乙烯价格弱 ...