Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2026.1.9 - 2026.1.16), the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with the benchmark spot price reaching 156,250 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.94% and a closing price of 146,200 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. Although a few lithium salt plants scheduled maintenance, the actual impact on production was limited, and most enterprises maintained stable production. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The demand expectation in the energy storage field remained strong, but the power battery was in a seasonal off - peak season, and some material plants' maintenance suppressed the current spot procurement demand. Downstream material plants were cautious about the current high - price spot and mainly purchased for rigid demand [11]. - This week, the industry cost remained stable, and the industry profit turned from loss to profit. The overall industry inventory level was low, and the inventory might continue to accumulate this week. Lithium salt plants were more willing to sell scattered orders, the inventory in the trader link increased, and the downstream inventory remained low or decreased [11]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The positive policy expectation has not been falsified, and the supply side still has uncertainties, which support the price. However, the weak spot - market transactions and the strengthened exchange supervision measures also resist the price increase. The current upward momentum comes from the demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the wide - range fluctuations in the market caused by changes in capital sentiment due to exchange risk control [11]. - The unilateral strategy considers range - bound operations for LC2605, with the contract reference range at (130,000, 170,000); or buy put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Views and Hot News - **Hot News** - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" proposed to promote the integrated construction of heavy non - ferrous metal mining and beneficiation, and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid - waste treatment capacity. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised concerns again [8]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key lies in standardizing the order and innovation - leading [8]. - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, reducing the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [8]. - On December 24, it was reported that the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Jiangxi Yichun Tendering Network released the first environmental - impact assessment information for the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. [8] - **Week - ly View** - **Market Review**: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures main contract also increased. The current main - month contract had a position of about 416,100 lots [11]. - **Supply**: Production increased slightly, with high operating rates and new - capacity contributions. Geopolitical factors had long - term impacts, but a South American mine planned to resume partial production by the end of January [11]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand scheduling decreased, but the energy - storage demand was strong. The "rush - to - export" expectation due to the tax - rebate policy was optimistic for the first - quarter demand. The power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The cost remained stable, and the profit turned from loss to profit. The overall inventory was low, and it might continue to accumulate [11]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand were both strong. Policy expectations and supply uncertainties supported the price, while weak transactions and exchange supervision resisted the increase. The upward momentum came from demand expectations, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider range - bound operations for LC2605 or buy put options [11] 2. Industry Pattern - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, recycled lithium extraction), lithium - salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium - ion batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, 3C digital, energy storage, etc.) [15][16] 3. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The closing price of the active lithium - carbonate contract was 146,200 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous period. The trading volume increased by 26.00% to 591,523 lots, and the position decreased by 18.54% to 416,133 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts increased by 8.27% to 27,458 lots [22]. - **Spot Market** - The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. As of January 16, 2026, the benchmark spot price was 156,250 yuan/ton, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026 [11] 4. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,844 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The market inventory decreased by 2.42% to 64,356 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 0.36% to 18,030 tons, and the registered warehouse - receipt volume increased by 8.27% to 27,458 tons [33] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost of lithium carbonate was 153,218 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase from the previous period. The profit was 4,732 yuan/ton, a 137.24% increase from the previous loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton [40] 6. Supply - **Production Capacity, Output, and Imports/Exports** - The production of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - Multiple companies have planned new production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. - **Import Situation** - The report shows import - related charts of lithium carbonate, including monthly import season charts, annual cumulative import, and import from different countries [48][49] - **Production from Different Raw Materials** - The report presents monthly production season charts of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycled materials [58][60] - **Spodumene Import** - The report shows monthly import season charts of spodumene from different regions such as Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as import volume and cumulative import [69][72] 7. Demand - **Overall Demand** - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The energy - storage demand was strong, but the power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - The report shows charts related to the overall demand, such as monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, retail penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and monthly production of power batteries [82][84]. - **Power Batteries** - The report shows charts related to power - battery production, installation, export, energy storage, and the proportion of different vehicle - type power - battery installations [88]. - **Output of Each Material** - The report shows the output of materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate [98][100] 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to a certain period in 2025, including total supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of each material, and inventory [107]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Short-term gold prices may fluctuate, but the medium-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. In 2026, there is a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates twice, which is favorable for gold. Long - term factors such as the continued decline of the global US dollar reserve ratio, the increase in US fiscal deficit, and the expected decline in real interest rates also support gold. It is expected that gold will remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. The report suggests holding gold long - term positions and setting stop - profits in the short - term, and considering buying call options [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy Fundamental View - In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively. - Inflation: CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut. - Interest rates: The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. - Supply and demand: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. - US economy: In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [6] Strategy View and Outlook - Outlook: The main gold futures contract was volatile at a high level last Friday. Due to the rapid changes in geopolitical conflicts, short - term fluctuations may occur, but the medium - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The lawsuit against the Fed chairman reflects US political turmoil and a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026, which is favorable for gold. Continue to pay attention to non - farm payroll data and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. From the December Fed meeting, the probability of two interest rate cuts in 2026 has increased, which is a dovish interest rate cut and favorable for gold. The market expects the new Fed chairman to be dovish, so interest rate cuts in 2026 are likely to meet expectations. In the long - term, the global US dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in the second quarter, the US fiscal deficit continued to increase, and de - dollarization is ongoing, which is favorable for gold's monetary attribute. In terms of financial attributes, it is expected that the real interest rate will continue to decline in 2026, which is also a positive factor for gold in the medium - term. For the commodity attribute, due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold demand may be greatly affected, and gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. It is necessary to pay attention to whether central bank gold purchases and investment demand can make up for the decline in jewelry demand. In summary, the long - term positive factors for gold still exist, so gold is expected to remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. - Operation suggestions: Hold gold long - term positions and set stop - profits in the short - term. Consider buying call options [10] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Last week, gold prices fluctuated upwards. In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively [22][28] 3. Inflation - CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut [32] 4. Interest Rates - The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. In November, inflation dropped significantly, and the real interest rate increased [37][41] 5. US Economy - In the third quarter, the US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year, up from 2.08% in the second quarter. In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, continuing to decline by 0.3%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, showing continuous strength. In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [44][48] 6. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - When the gold supply and demand are in a tight balance, it helps the gold price rise, but when in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. In the third quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases were 219.85 tons; in the second quarter, they were 172.02 tons; in the first quarter, they were 248.57 tons. Since November 2022, the Chinese central bank has continuously purchased gold. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons; since 2024, it has purchased 44.17 tons. In 2025, the Chinese central bank purchased 26.74 tons. In terms of ETF demand, in 2023, the gold holding decreased by 113.69 tons; in 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons; in 2025, it increased by 294.73 tons; in 2026, it decreased by 7.2 tons [54][57][60] 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Only mentioned the reasonable range of the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, no specific data 9. Gold Basis - Not provided in the given content 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Only relevant charts are mentioned, no specific data

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are weakly stable, resulting in weak cost - side drivers. Domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, while international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, reducing import pressure and supply pressure. Current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - **Inventory**: This week, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventories are expected to be 44.41 tons, showing a slight week - on - week decline. Forecasted foreign vessel arrivals are expected to increase week - on - week. Recent port spot sales are average, and import apparent demand may be weak. Overall, port methanol inventories are expected to rise next week [11]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan for methanol import samples is 291,500 tons, including 226,000 tons of visible and 65,500 tons of non - visible imports, and domestic trade is estimated to be around 15,000 - 20,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: This week, MTO plants are operating stably with no significant change plans, and the weekly average operating rate has decreased. In the traditional demand sector, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether have increased, while the operating rate of chlorides has decreased [11]. - **Industrial chain profit**: Import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 36 yuan/ton. The profit from coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable in the loss, currently at - 238 yuan/ton. Downstream profits are in a large loss, and the profit from MTO in East China remains in a loss, currently at - 1,094 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal price**: On the supply side, it is constrained by the reduction of production quotas in Indonesia, the delay in RKAB approval, and logistics issues. On the demand side, it continues to be weak due to the price - cutting by domestic power plants, high inventory levels, and conservative procurement in non - power industries. Coal prices are weakly stable [11] [12]. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Coal prices are weakly stable, cost - side drivers are weak; domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, import pressure has decreased, and supply pressure has reduced; current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. - **Unilateral and options**: Operate bearishly within the range, with a reference range of [2,150, 2,350] [12]. MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term) - **Strategy**: Short the MA605 contract [15]. - **Price and trend**: It is in a rebound trend. As of January 15, the price of MA605 is 2,273 [15]. - **Logic**: Port inventories are at a relatively high level, downstream profits are poor, and demand is under pressure [15]. - **Operation suggestion**: Operate bearishly when the price rises [15]. PP - 3MA Strategy - **Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread [16]. - **Price and trend**: It is in a volatile trend. As of January 15, for the May contract, the current spread of PP - 3MA is - 227 [16]. - **Logic**: In 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol; new downstream production capacity of methanol is being put into operation on a large scale, and methanol demand is resilient [16]. - **Operation suggestion**: Wait and see for now or short when the price rises [16]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot price**: As of January 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,240 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the basis relative to the May contract is currently - 33 yuan/ton [21]. Supply - side - **Capacity utilization and production**: Last week (January 9 - 15, 2026), China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,990 tons; the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34% [82]. - **International operating rate and imports**: As of January 14, 2026, China's methanol sample arrivals during the period (January 8 - 14, 2026) were 240,400 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 221,100 tons (96,100 tons of visible and 125,000 tons of non - visible, including 41,100 tons of visible in Jiangsu); domestic trade vessels supplemented 19,300 tons, including 2,000 tons in Jiangsu, 10,300 tons in Guangdong, and 7,000 tons in Xiamen [90]. - **New production capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [93]. - **New production capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. Demand - side - **Apparent consumption of methanol**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [100]. - **Methanol - to - olefin operating rate and production**: The MTO operating rate is 89.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing has stopped production, and some enterprises are still operating at reduced loads, and the industry operating rate continues to decline passively [104]. - **Traditional downstream operating rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [109]. - **Downstream procurement volume**: As of January 14, 2026, the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [122]. - **New downstream production capacity**: The new downstream production capacity is high, corresponding to a methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, and methanol demand remains resilient [125]. Inventory - **Enterprise inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [131]. - **Port inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples is 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port methanol inventory is mainly due to the small total unloading volume. During the period, the visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was counted as 125,000 tons [134].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The supply side of coal mines has little change for the time being, with the coal mine operating rate continuing to rise slightly last week; on the demand side, the steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased, but there are still expectations for winter storage replenishment; the market's expectation for the fifth round of price cuts has cooled down, and there are expectations for coal production cuts. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Supply**: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons. In terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [7]. - **Demand**: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase. The coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [7]. - **View**: In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. - **Strategy**: Participate in the short-term long side of the coking coal and coke 2605 contracts. The support level for coking coal 2605 is around 1,050 - 1,060 yuan/ton, and the support level for coke 2605 is around 1,620 - 1,630 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy regulation, capacity constraints, and the customs clearance volume of imported coal in the later stage [7]. 3.2 Industrial Chain - No specific content provided for analysis 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - No specific content provided for analysis 3.4 Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory (Mines, Ports)**: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease [28]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Coking and Steel Enterprises)**: As of January 16, 2026, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [33]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [38]. 3.5 Supply - **Coking Coal Import and Export**: From January to November, the cumulative import of coking coal was 10.48559 million tons, and the export was 112,960 tons [44]. - **Coal Mine Output**: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons [48]. - **Coking Output**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Coke Output**: As of January 16, 2026, in terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [58]. 3.6 Demand - **Hot Metal and Operating Rate**: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease [66]. - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton**: As of January 16, 2026, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1. Steel (Rebar) - Inventory: The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly week - on - week. Rebar inventory decreased slightly, while wire rod inventory increased slightly. Under the influence of the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation increased [7]. - Supply: Affected by environmental protection in the north, the hot metal output of blast furnace steel mills decreased slightly. However, with the recovery of steel profits, steel mills are willing to resume production, and there is room for an increase in steel supply [7]. - Demand: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products rebounded week - on - week. Although the expectation of a decline in steel demand remains unchanged, the weakening pace is slow, and demand has a certain degree of resilience [7]. - View: Recently, the pace of steel mill resumption has been erratic, and rebar production has been relatively stable. However, with acceptable profitability of steel mills and low inventory levels, there is room for a marginal increase in supply. As the off - season deepens, demand gradually weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. The industrial supply - demand contradiction will gradually accumulate. Currently, the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand in the steel market exerts pressure, but in the short term, steel prices show a range - bound trend due to macro expectations and cost support [7]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [7]. 2.2. Iron Ore - Supply: In the latest period (January 5 - January 11, 2026), the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume in China increased. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons. The total shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.333 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons, and Brazil's shipment volume was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [9]. - Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons. Affected by environmental protection, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased slightly week - on - week [9]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.13 days. The iron ore port inventory continued to reach a new high, and the steel mill inventory increased week - on - week [9]. - View: In terms of the industry, overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the expectation of tightened overseas shipments under the influence of seasonal factors was strong. The arrival volume in China remained at a high level, and the port inventory continued to reach a new high. On the demand side, in the short term, affected by environmental protection, the steel mill hot metal output decreased slightly again, but the steel mill profitability was acceptable, and the hot metal output still increased year - on - year. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement provides certain support for ore prices [9]. - Strategy: The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Supply and Demand Data of Steel - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the profitability rate was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 228.01 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 tons. The operating rate of 94 independent electric furnaces was 72.97%, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 244.24 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.06 tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 819.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons [10]. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 8.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04 tons; the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 17,850 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4650 tons; the apparent demand for rebar was 190.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.44 tons; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons; the apparent demand for wire rods was 71.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.90 tons; the apparent demand for cold - rolled coils was 91.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.09 tons; the apparent demand for medium - thick plates was 158.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 tons [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1247.01 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the rebar inventory was 438.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 tons; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 362.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.80 tons; the wire rod inventory was 91.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.95 tons; the cold - rolled coil inventory was 158.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26 tons; the medium - thick plate inventory was 196.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons [10]. 3.2. Weekly Supply and Demand Data of Iron Ore - Shipment Volume: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons; the shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons; the shipment volume from 19 ports in Brazil was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons [11]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [11]. - Inventory: The inventory at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons [11]. - Demand: The port clearance volume at 47 ports was 3.3502 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,400 tons; the daily consumption of steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons [11]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Market - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3163 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract was 3315 yuan/ton; the closing price of the I2605 contract was 812 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar's main contract was 137 yuan/ton; the basis of Shanghai hot - rolled coil's main contract was - 15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was - 152 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4. Demand Side - The report mainly presents the apparent consumption volume of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, cold - rolled coils, medium - thick plates), trading volume, procurement volume, cement outbound volume, and concrete production capacity utilization rate through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [57][63][65]. 3.5. Inventory Side - The report mainly shows the inventory of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, cold - rolled coils, medium - thick plates) and the inventory - to - sales ratio through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [78][89][98]. 3.6. Supply Side - Steel Production: The report shows the production volume of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, cold - rolled coils) and the total production volume of the five major steel products through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [109][114][116]. - Steel Mill Operation: The report shows the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnace steel mills and independent electric furnace steel mills through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [123]. - Hot Metal and Scrap: The report shows the hot metal production volume and scrap consumption through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [125]. - Steel Mill Profit: The report shows the steel mill profitability rate and steel profit through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [130]. 3.7. Raw Material - Iron Ore - Global Shipment: From January 5 - January 11, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons [136]. - Australia - Brazil Shipment: The total iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.333 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.933 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons [140]. - Arrival Volume: From January 5 - January 11, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [153]. - Port Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 75.8221 million tons, an increase of 1.5887 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 61.6914 million tons, an increase of 612,400 tons; the trading ore inventory was 113.5285 million tons, an increase of 1.8404 million tons; the coarse powder inventory was 131.6586 million tons, an increase of 923,600 tons; the lump ore inventory was 21.6713 million tons, an increase of 387,500 tons; the iron concentrate powder inventory was 15.5271 million tons, an increase of 699,400 tons; the pellet inventory was 4.03 million tons, an increase of 432,100 tons [157][161]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.13 days [173].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply has slightly decreased, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited, and prices are expected to decline further. Suggested strategies include shorting si2605, buying put options, or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - For polysilicon, downstream wafer companies have a very low willingness to accept high - priced silicon materials. Under the dual pressure of regulatory policy adjustments and supply - demand imbalances, spot prices will return to fundamentals. Suggested strategies include range - trading PS2605 and using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 202222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. Short - term price is supported by production cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [12][23]. - In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. Short - term egg prices are still under pressure, while medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve [12][36]. - The egg market shows a significant supply - demand imbalance. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the market is in a state of over - capacity. However, as the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance. The egg price has fundamental support, but the upward space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13]. - The medium - term egg supply pressure has not been alleviated. The main contract is for the post - festival period, continuing to fluctuate widely in the range. The pressure level is around 3100 - 3150. For options, investors can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Viewpoint**: The spot price rebounds, the supply - demand situation shows short - term pressure and medium - term improvement, and the market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with potential for improvement. The strategy is to expect the main contract to fluctuate widely and consider buying call options of far - month contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The egg industry chain includes upstream (feed, breeding, animal protection), mid - stream (egg production and sales, and elimination of laying hens), and downstream (sales to various channels such as supermarkets, restaurants, and food processing plants) [17]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The national egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. The price is supported by cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [23]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Laying - hen Inventory**: In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years [12][36]. - **Chick Rearing and Replenishment**: In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chick seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. Although the sales volume increased slightly, most small and medium - sized farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was still low. The egg - to - chick utilization rate was generally low, and the chick price is expected to be stable [42]. - **Eliminated Hen Price**: In January, the supply of eliminated hens is expected to be sufficient, and the demand is expected to improve due to the Spring Festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [46]. - **Eliminated Hen Sales**: This week, the total sales volume of eliminated hens was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The price increase led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the overall sales volume decreased slightly [49]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Sales in Main Consumption Areas**: The egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price generally reaches the lowest in April, the highest in September, and then declines after the peak season [71]. - **Substitute Prices**: Although not elaborated in detail, substitute prices are factors restricting the upward space of egg prices [13]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Feed Price**: The egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices. In 2026, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the international purchase of soybean meal may increase, with their average prices likely to decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to fall by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [80]. - **Laying - hen Breeding Profit**: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.54 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan/jin (0.57% increase). The profit was - 0.18 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan/jin (57.14% increase). The cost per hen was 133.57 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan/hen (0.35% increase), and the breeding profit was 4.70 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan/hen (197.11% increase) [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Despite short - term news - induced pullbacks, the medium - to long - term upward trend of copper prices remains unchanged. The strategy is to buy on dips in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai copper 2603 being 94,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [8][9]. - The vulnerability of the copper mine end is prominent, with frequent production disruptions at major overseas mines. From 2025 - 2026, global copper mine production growth is expected to be limited. Although domestic refined copper production increased in December 2025, future production may decline due to reduced processing fees. - Recent domestic downstream copper consumption has weakened, and Nvidia's revision of copper demand data for data centers may lower market expectations for future copper demand. However, the impact on overall copper demand is relatively limited. New energy, power grids, photovoltaic, and wind power are expected to maintain high - speed growth and remain the main drivers of new copper demand. In the context of limited supply growth, the supply - demand balance of copper is likely to tighten in the short term, and the long - term upward price trend is unlikely to change [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Buy on dips in the medium term, with the reference support range for Shanghai copper 2603 being 94,000 - 95,000 yuan/ton [8]. - **Macro**: The US imposed a 25% tariff on some semiconductors starting from January 15, 2026, with exemptions for data centers and the public sector. Copper import tariffs only apply to semi - finished products, and refined copper is not restricted. The People's Bank of China lowered the re - lending rates for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 0.25 percentage points starting from January 19. China will cancel the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products starting from April 1, and the tax rebate rate for battery products will be phased out [9]. - **Supply**: The vulnerability of the copper mine end is prominent, with frequent production disruptions at major overseas mines. The ICSG predicts that the global copper mine production growth rate may drop to 0.9% in 2025. From 2025 - 2026, copper mine production growth is expected to be restricted. In December 2025, domestic refined copper production increased by 76,000 tons month - on - month. Overseas smelting capacity expansion is slow due to energy prices [9]. - **Demand**: Domestic downstream copper consumption has weakened recently, with an increase in production cuts and suspensions. Nvidia's revision of copper demand data for data centers may lower market expectations for future copper demand, but the impact on overall copper demand is relatively limited. New energy, power grids, photovoltaic, and wind power are expected to maintain high - speed growth and remain the main drivers of new copper demand [9]. - **Inventory**: Last week, LME copper inventory decreased slightly, while domestic social and exchange inventories increased rapidly. The off - season and significant price increases have affected downstream demand [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures, Spot, and Premiums**: Relevant data on domestic futures and spot prices and Shanghai flat - water copper premiums are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [13]. - **LME Copper Price and Shanghai - London Ratio**: Relevant data on LME copper price trends and the Shanghai - London ratio are presented, but no specific analysis is provided [15]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Mine Capital Expenditure and New Large - scale Copper Mine Discoveries**: Global copper exploration investment has fluctuated significantly. Since 2015, the discovery of high - grade copper mines has decreased year by year, and new large - scale copper mines are often located in areas with poor geological conditions or political instability, with long development cycles [24]. - **Global Copper Mine and Refined Copper Production Distribution**: In 2024, the top three countries in global copper mine production were Chile (23%), Congo (DRC) (15%), and Peru (11%); the top three countries in global refined copper production were China (45%), Congo (DRC) (9%), and Chile (7%) [27][29]. - **Copper Concentrate Processing Fees TC and Global Copper Mine Production**: As of January 16, 2026, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate was - 46.40 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price was 3498 US dollars/dry ton. In 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 15.305 million tons from January to October, and the annual production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [33]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In November 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.5262 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.05% and a year - on - year increase of 13.13%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 27.614 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%. In the third week of 2026, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 547,000 tons [40]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In October 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.2419 million tons, with a consumption of 2.2433 million tons, a supply shortage of 1400 tons. From January to October 2025, the global refined copper production was 22.6095 million tons, with a consumption of 22.5734 million tons, a supply surplus of 36,100 tons. In October 2025, China's refined copper (electrolytic copper) production was 1.204 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.9%; from January to October, the cumulative production was 12.295 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [44]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export Volume**: In November 2025, China's refined copper imports were 304,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 23.47%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative imports were 3.1031 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 278,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 8.2%. From January to November 2025, the cumulative exports were 681,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 49.33% [46]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative imports of recycled copper raw materials (copper scrap and waste) were 2.104 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. As of January 16, 2026, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 5505 yuan/ton, higher than the reasonable price difference of 1500 yuan/ton [50][51]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 141,600 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market rose to 542,900 tons, reaching a new high in the same period in recent years [58][59]. - **Domestic Inventory**: Since the end of the year, domestic social and SHFE copper inventories have increased rapidly. As of January 15, 2026, the domestic social inventory was 327,500 tons, and the SHFE inventory reached a new high since May last year [63][64]. 3.4 Primary Processing and End - user Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: From January to November 2025, China's cumulative copper product output was 22.593 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In November 2025, China imported 427,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products; from January to November, the cumulative imports were 4.883 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. From January to November 2025, the total export of unwrought copper was 1.4971 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.10% [70][75]. - **End - user Market - Power**: From January to November 2025, the investment in power source projects of major power generation enterprises in China was 850 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.8%; the investment in power grid projects was 560.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [79]. - **End - user Market - Real Estate**: From January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.9%; among them, residential investment was 6.0432 trillion yuan, a decrease of 15.0% [85]. - **End - user Market - Automobile**: From January to November 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 31.231 million and 31.127 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 11.9% and 11.4% respectively. From January to November 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 14.907 million and 14.780 million vehicles respectively, a year - on - year increase of 31.4% and 31.2% respectively, and the sales of new energy vehicles accounted for 47.5% of the total sales of new vehicles. It is expected that the sales of new energy vehicles in China will reach 1.85 million in 2026, and although the copper consumption growth rate will drop to about 15%, the absolute increase in copper consumption will still be considerable [90][95]. - **End - user Market - Home Appliances**: In November 2025, the national air - conditioner output was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; from January to November, the cumulative output was 245.361 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. From January to November 2025, the export volume of Chinese household appliances was 4.082801 billion units, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. Among them, the cumulative export of air - conditioners from January to November was 55.13 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [99]. - **End - user Market - Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: From January to November 2025, the national cumulative power generation installed capacity was 3.79 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. Among them, the installed capacity of solar power generation was 1.16 billion kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 41.9%; the installed capacity of wind power was 600 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 22.4%. It is expected that the new installed capacity of photovoltaic in China in 2026 will be between 235 - 270GW, and the new installed capacity of wind power in 2025 will be 78 - 80GW. The single - consumption of copper in photovoltaic and wind power is gradually decreasing. It is expected that the copper consumption of photovoltaic and wind power installations in China will decrease by 2% in 2025 and by more than 12% in 2026 [103][107]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Downstream Demand Structure Change and Supply - Demand Balance Forecast**: Since 2020, the global copper demand structure has changed significantly. It is expected that the proportion of green copper demand (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed that of construction demand in 2025. From 2026 - 2028, the global refined copper supply will be 27.97 million tons, 28.94 million tons, and 28.84 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 1.6%, 1.7%, and 1.4%; the global refined copper demand will be 28.13 million tons, 28.80 million tons, and 29.45 million tons respectively, with a year - on - year increase of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.3%. There will be continuous supply shortages of 160,000 tons, 360,000 tons, and 610,000 tons from 2026 - 2028 [110][111]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content is provided in the report.

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货铝周报 中长需求稳健增长，铝价只是阶段调整 20260118 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 期现市场 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 周度观点及策略 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性， ...

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In December 2025, China's exports continued high - growth, imports rebounded significantly, and the trade surplus expanded. The Fed's January rate - cut probability decreased, and the RMB showed an appreciation trend. The central bank adjusted the structural monetary policy tool rate and commercial real - estate credit policies, aiming to improve capital activation and support the real economy [8][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Economic Accounting - GDP quarterly data from 2023 to 2025 are presented, showing the performance of different industries, including agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, industry, and services. The contribution rates and pulling effects of the three industries on GDP are also provided [13][18]. 3.2 Industry Analysis - **Industrial Sector**: The growth rate, added - value of major industries, and production of key products are analyzed. The profit situation of industrial enterprises shows mixed results, with some industries growing and some declining. The inventory of industrial enterprises is at a relatively high level, and enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory [28][43][53]. - **Price Index**: In December 2025, the national consumer price index (CPI) increased year - on - year, and the industrial producer price index (PPI) decreased year - on - year but the decline narrowed. The prices of different categories in CPI and PPI showed different trends [60][68]. 3.3 Real Estate Market - In January - November 2025, real estate development investment, construction area, new - start area, completion area, sales area, and sales volume all declined year - on - year. The prices of new and second - hand residential properties in major cities also showed different degrees of decline [122][126][130]. 3.4 Foreign Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total import and export volume reached a record high. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased. The export of key products and the import of key commodities are presented in detailed tables [93][100][101]. 3.5 Fixed - Asset Investment - From January - November 2025, national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased year - on - year. Private fixed - asset investment also declined. Investment in different industries showed different trends, with the second - industry investment growing and the third - industry investment declining [114]. 3.6 Domestic Trade - The growth of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales is analyzed, and the year - on - year changes in retail sales of different industries above the quota are presented [158][165]. 3.7 Transportation - The transportation volume of goods and passengers by different means, the subway passenger flow in major cities, and the freight rates of shipping routes are analyzed [168][173][179]. 3.8 Banking and Currency - The new social financing scale, social financing scale stock, new RMB loans, and money liquidity are analyzed. The central bank emphasizes reasonable interest - rate control to promote the decline of the real - economy financing cost [183][194][200]. 3.9 Bond Market - The issuance of interest - bearing bonds and the yields of long - and short - term treasury bonds are analyzed [213][216]. 3.10 Foreign Exchange and Gold - The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index are presented. China's gold reserves increased, and the foreign exchange reserves reached a new high [220][223]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - The central and local general public budget revenues and expenditures are analyzed, and the urban surveyed unemployment rate and new urban employment are presented [232][236][242]. 3.12 Business Climate Survey - The global and Chinese manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMI are analyzed. In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded [245][248][256]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - The US real GDP growth rate, employment situation, treasury bond yields, retail sales, and the Fed's asset structure and federal funds rate are analyzed [263][266][274].