1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: In February 2026, the industrial silicon market experienced a double - reduction in supply and demand. The price was still bottoming out in the range, and there was no sign of a turnaround in the short term. If there was large - scale resumption of production after the holiday, the market would decline further. The report suggested considering short - selling opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or conducting an arbitrage between shorting industrial silicon and longing polysilicon [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The short - term polysilicon market was mainly characterized by observing inventory reduction and weak price operation. The output in March was expected to increase. The market might move towards a weak balance if the downstream demand recovered, and the price could stabilize; otherwise, the price decline would continue. The report recommended considering short - selling opportunities for PS2605, buying put options, or conducting an arbitrage between shorting industrial silicon and longing polysilicon [14]. 3. Summary by Chapter 3.1 Monthly Views and Hot News - **Hot News**: Some polysilicon leading enterprises held meetings to discuss market issues, and some silicon material factories started to increase or maintain prices. The highest enterprise quotation returned to 63 yuan/kg. From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic products would be cancelled, and the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products would be adjusted. The market supervision department had regulatory actions on the photovoltaic industry, and the polysilicon futures limit - down might be affected by the regulatory information. New polysilicon futures delivery warehouses were added [8]. - **Industrial Silicon Monthly View**: The spot price of industrial silicon decreased by 3.25% from February 1 to 28, 2026. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 5.14%. The overall furnace - opening rate of the industry declined, and the output decreased year - on - year. Downstream demand shrank, and the profit decreased. The inventory was still at a high level. The price was expected to remain weak, and relevant short - selling strategies were proposed [11]. - **Polysilicon Monthly View**: The spot price of polysilicon decreased by 2.94% from February 1 to 28, 2026. The futures price of the main contract decreased by 1.37%. Although the supply was reduced, the new production capacity was still being released, and the demand was weak. The inventory was high, and the price was expected to be weak. Relevant short - selling strategies were also proposed [14]. - **Price Influence Factor Prediction**: For industrial silicon, factors such as reduced supply were positive, while reduced demand and high inventory were negative, and the overall price was expected to decline. For polysilicon, the price was expected to fluctuate [15][16]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Industry Chain**: Industrial silicon was produced from raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc., and was used in the production of organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloys. These products were further used in various industries such as electronics, construction, and photovoltaics [20]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Markets - **Basis and Spread**: There were relevant charts showing the basis of industrial silicon and the spread of polysilicon [23]. - **Spot Price**: There were charts showing the spot prices of industrial silicon 553 and 421 at different ports and regions, as well as the prices of industrial silicon contracts [28][37][45]. 3.4 Inventory - There were charts showing the industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory of industrial silicon [56][60]. 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: There were charts showing the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon, as well as the electricity prices in main production areas, the prices of silicon stone, petroleum coke, electrodes, and silicon coal [68][74][83][90]. 3.6 Supply - **Production and Capacity**: There were charts showing the weekly and monthly production of industrial silicon, the opening rate, and the monthly production capacity. There was also a list of new production capacity projects in different regions [99][104][107]. 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: There were charts showing the consumption breakdown and structure of industrial silicon. The consumption data of organic silicon, aluminum alloys, and polysilicon from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 were also provided. There were also charts related to the production, price, inventory, and cost of polysilicon, as well as the price, production, and cost of organic silicon, and the production, price, and inventory of aluminum rods and aluminum alloys [110][113][116][122][126][132][137][142]. 3.8 Import and Export - There were charts showing the import and export of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and photovoltaic products [176][180][183].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货原油月报 继续关注美伊地缘形势 20260301 黄桂仁 交易咨询号：Z0014527 审核：黎照锋 从业资格号：F0210135 交易咨询号：Z0000088 1 月度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期现市场 4 供应端 5 需求端 6 库存 7 宏观数据 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 月度观点及策略 月度观点 从业资格号：F3032275 0769-22112875 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 行情回顾：1月原油呈现宽幅震荡上行走势。主要受到美国伊朗地缘形势反复左右。 u 供应：欧佩克2月报显示， 1月 ...

Report Overview The report is a macro monthly report from Hualian Futures, covering various aspects of the economy including foreign exchange, real estate, prices, trade, investment, and economic indicators in China and the US. 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Foreign Exchange**: After the Spring Festival, the RMB strengthened against the US dollar, driven by both external (Fed's rate - cut cycle and US policy uncertainty) and internal (resilient domestic economy and post - Spring Festival corporate settlement demand) factors. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio to prevent rapid RMB appreciation [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai introduced new real estate policies in February 2026, which are expected to help the Shanghai real estate market stabilize and recover first, leading the repair of first - tier cities [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI showed a mild recovery and PPI continued to repair, with clear positive signals in core indicators [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate had an unexpected good start, with a credit structure characterized by strong consumption and weak mortgages, and an increase in M1 driving the activation of currency liquidity [13]. 3. Summary by Section 3.1 Monthly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Foreign Exchange**: The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar reached a new high. The RMB's appreciation was driven by external factors such as the Fed's rate - cut cycle and internal factors like the resilient domestic economy. The central bank adjusted the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio from 20% to 0 to balance the foreign exchange market [7]. - **Real Estate**: Shanghai issued new real estate policies in February 2026, including shortening the social security requirement for non - Shanghai residents to buy houses, increasing the provident fund loan limit, and relaxing the loan - set recognition. The national real estate market is still in an adjustment period, and Shanghai is expected to recover first [9]. - **Prices**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year, with food prices down 0.7% and non - food prices up 0.4%. PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing [11]. - **Finance**: In January 2026, China's new social financing aggregate was 7.22 trillion yuan, with government bonds being the main driving force. Credit data showed a structural differentiation, with strong consumer loans and weak mortgage loans. M1 - M2 scissors - difference narrowed, indicating more active currency liquidity [13]. 3.2 National Economic Accounting - **GDP Growth**: From 2023 - 2025, the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate showed fluctuations. Different industries had different growth rates, with the information transmission, software and information technology services and the leasing and business services industries showing relatively high growth [16]. - **Contribution of Three Industries**: The contributions of the three industries to the constant - price GDP quarterly year - on - year growth and the GDP quarterly year - on - year growth rate varied over time [17]. 3.3 Industry Data - **Industry Growth**: The growth rate of the industrial added value of different industries showed differences. For example, the automobile manufacturing, railway, ship, aerospace and other transportation equipment manufacturing industries had relatively high growth rates [30][34]. - **Industrial Output**: The output of major industrial products such as crude oil, coal, and steel also showed certain trends. For instance, the output of crude oil and steel fluctuated over time [36]. - **Electricity Consumption**: In November 2025, China's total social electricity consumption was 835.6 billion kWh, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%. The growth rate of high - energy - consuming industries in the secondary industry slowed down, while high - tech and equipment manufacturing maintained a high growth rate of 6% - 10% [45]. - **Industrial Profits**: In 2025, the total profit of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 7.3982 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.6%. Different industries had different profit situations, with the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry having a significant increase in profit [49]. - **Industrial Inventory**: At the end of 2025, the accounts receivable of industrial enterprises above the designated size was 27.43 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.7%. The finished - product inventory was 6.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.9%, and the actual inventory growth rate after excluding price factors was about 5.8% [59]. 3.4 Price Index - **CPI**: In January 2026, China's CPI increased by 0.2% year - on - year. Food prices decreased by 0.7%, and non - food prices increased by 0.4%. Different CPI sub - items had different price changes [66]. - **PPI**: In January 2026, China's PPI decreased by 1.4% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing. The prices of production materials and living materials both showed certain changes [74]. 3.5 Real Estate - **New Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of new commercial residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 2.1% year - on - year, with Shanghai being an exception with a 4.2% increase. Second - and third - tier cities also saw price declines [85]. - **Second - hand Residential Prices**: In January 2026, the sales prices of second - hand residential buildings in first - tier cities decreased by 7.6% year - on - year. Second - and third - tier cities also had price declines [89]. 3.6 Foreign Trade and Investment - **Import and Export**: In December 2025, China's total import and export value was 601.42 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 6.6%, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [99]. - **Key Commodity Exports and Imports**: The export and import amounts of key commodities such as agricultural products, industrial raw materials, and mechanical and electrical products showed different trends over time [106][107]. 3.7 Fixed - Asset Investment - **Total Fixed - Asset Investment**: In 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 48.5186 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%. Different industries had different investment growth rates, with the secondary industry having a 2.5% increase and the third industry having a 7.4% decrease [119]. - **Real Estate Investment**: In 2025, the national real estate development investment was 8.2788 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 17.2%. The construction area, new construction area, completion area, sales area, and sales amount of real estate all showed declines [127][131][135]. 3.8 Domestic Trade - **Retail Sales**: The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of service retail sales and social consumer goods retail sales showed certain trends. The retail sales of different industries also had different growth rates [163][170]. 3.9 Transportation - **Freight and Passenger Transport**: The transportation volumes of different freight and passenger transport modes showed different trends. The traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and the investment in transportation fixed assets also had certain characteristics [173][174][176]. 3.10 Banking and Currency - **Social Financing**: The new social financing scale and its components showed different trends over time. The stock of social financing scale and its components also had different year - on - year growth rates [184][185]. - **Credit**: The new RMB loans and their components, including short - term and long - term loans, household loans, and enterprise loans, showed different trends [194]. - **Monetary Liquidity**: In January, the M1 growth rate declined significantly, and the M2 growth rate increased slightly. The M2 - M1 scissors - difference expanded to 4.7%, indicating a slowdown in capital activation [200]. - **Interest Rates and Exchange Rates**: The central bank emphasized reasonable interest rate control to promote a stable decline in the financing cost of the real economy. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar and the US dollar index showed certain trends, and the foreign exchange and gold reserves increased [210][221]. 3.11 Fiscal and Employment - **Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure**: The general public fiscal revenue and expenditure of the central and local governments showed different trends. Different types of fiscal revenues and expenditures also had different changes [236][237]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added urban jobs and the urban survey unemployment rate showed certain trends [241]. 3.12 Business Surveys - **Global Manufacturing PMI**: The global manufacturing PMI showed certain fluctuations from 2025 - 2026. Different countries and regions had different PMI values [246]. - **China Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.3%, a seasonal decline of 0.8 percentage points. Different sub - indicators such as production, new orders, and prices showed different trends [249]. - **China Non - Manufacturing PMI**: In January 2026, China's non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.4%, a decline of 0.8 percentage points. The construction and service industries both saw a decline in business activity, with different degrees of industry differentiation [257]. 3.13 US Macroeconomy - **GDP Growth**: The US real GDP环比折年率 showed fluctuations from 2023 - 2025. Different components such as private consumption, investment, and government spending had different contributions to GDP growth [264]. - **Employment**: The number of newly - added non - farm jobs and the unemployment rate in the US showed certain trends [265]. - **Treasury Yields**: The yields of US Treasury bonds of different maturities and the yield curve inversion degree showed certain trends [272]. - **Retail Sales**: The retail and food service sales in the US showed different year - on - year growth rates for different categories [273]. - **Federal Reserve**: The asset structure of the Federal Reserve and the federal funds rate showed certain trends. The reverse repurchase amount on the liability side of the Federal Reserve decreased significantly this year [274][277].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are still affected by the overall sentiment of the precious metals sector and geopolitical risks in the short term. Geopolitical risks remain high, driving up precious metals prices, and platinum and palladium fluctuate with the sector [8][9]. - Fundamentally, the global platinum market has been in short supply for two consecutive years. The supply of platinum is shrinking, industrial demand is rising, and low prices have stabilized jewelry and investment demand, highlighting the supply - demand contradiction. The supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to continue in the next few years, so the long - term fundamentals of platinum are optimistic [9]. - For palladium, automotive demand dominates. Due to the surge in the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China, the growth of palladium demand is suppressed, and it is difficult to see improvement in the short term. Therefore, the fundamental support for palladium is limited, and its trend is affected by platinum linkage and the macro - environment [9]. - Overall, the industrial demand for platinum and palladium is concentrated in fuel - vehicle exhaust catalysts, and the fundamental support is insufficient. Their trends are mainly driven by the overall sector sentiment, and recently by safe - haven demand. They are expected to maintain high volatility and wide - range fluctuations. It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Weekly Views - **Price Trends**: Last Friday, there were fluctuations in the platinum and palladium markets. The sharp rise in the spot price of platinum in the external market drove the prices of domestic platinum and palladium to gap up on Friday. Platinum was relatively strong, with the platinum main contract closing at 685.9 yuan, up 10.39%; the palladium main contract closed at 497.95 yuan, up 3.98%. The spot price of external platinum reached a record high of 2704.3 at the early morning of Saturday. The weekly gains of domestic platinum and palladium were 12.4% and 6.1% respectively [8]. - **Macroeconomic Situation**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17 was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November, indicating a warming labor market. The final quarter - on - quarter growth rate of the US GDP in the third quarter was 4.4%, the fastest in two years, showing robust growth. In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations; the core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations, indicating a mitigation of inflation risks. The market is focusing on the upcoming announcement of the new Fed Chairman, which may affect market expectations for the future interest - rate path of the Fed [8]. - **News**: The sharp rise in precious metals last week was mainly due to the intensification of geopolitical risks, which led to funds flowing into safe - haven assets. The US President's announcement of tariffs on eight European countries and Europe's strong response of selling US Treasuries, along with the deterioration of the situation in Greenland, initially increased geopolitical risks. Although the US President later cancelled the tariffs and gave up the idea of seizing the island by force, the tense relations between Europe and the US and the uncertain situation in Iran still stimulated the market's demand for safe - haven asset allocation [8]. - **Fundamentals**: In 2026, platinum and palladium are expected to show significant differences. The supply of platinum is continuously restricted, with South Africa accounting for over 70% of global production. Its demand structure is diverse, with automotive exhaust catalysts accounting for only about 40%, and the rest coming from investment, jewelry, and industrial fields. Against the background of rising platinum prices, investment demand has increased significantly. At the same time, emerging fields such as the hydrogen - energy industry and commercial spaceflight have opened up long - term growth prospects, and the supply - demand gap of platinum is expected to widen in 2026. The terminal demand for palladium is highly dependent on automotive exhaust catalysts, accounting for over 80%. Suppressed by the accelerating penetration of new energy vehicles and the substitution trend of platinum, the growth of palladium demand lacks imagination. Although there is still a short - term supply gap, it is expected to narrow significantly in 2026, with relatively limited fundamental support [8]. 3.1.2 Strategies - It is recommended to go long on platinum PT2606 and palladium PD2606 with light positions [9]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Markets - The report provides multiple sets of charts, including the trends of NYMEX platinum and palladium futures, London platinum and palladium spot prices, Guangzhou Futures Exchange platinum and palladium futures, and the Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum price [12][16][20][24]. 3.3 US Economy - The report presents charts of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm employment numbers, and the unemployment rate, which can be used to analyze the overall situation of the US economy [30][31]. 3.4 Inflation - The report provides charts of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE to show the inflation situation in the US [36][39]. 3.5 Interest Rates - The report shows charts of US Treasury yields (including short - term and medium - to - long - term) and real interest rates, which can be used to analyze the interest - rate situation in the US [42][45][46]. 3.6 Fundamentals - **Platinum**: The report provides a global platinum supply - demand balance sheet from 2013 to 2026f, showing the supply from various regions (such as South Africa, Zimbabwe, North America, Russia), different types of demand (automotive, jewelry, IT, etc.), and the supply - demand gap and inventory changes in different years [51]. - **Palladium**: The report provides a global palladium supply - demand balance sheet from 2009 to 2025, showing the supply from different regions (South Africa, Russia, North America, etc.), different types of demand (automotive, chemical, dental and biomedical, etc.), and the supply - demand gap in different years [52]. 3.7 Futures Positioning - The report provides charts of the external platinum and palladium futures positionings, including non - commercial net long positions and total positions [53]. 3.8 Passenger Car Sales - The report provides charts of China's passenger - car market retail and wholesale data, including the number of vehicles sold and year - on - year changes [60]. 3.9 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - The report provides charts of the US dollar index and various exchange - rate pairs, including the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, the euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound, and the Canadian dollar [66][69][72][74]. 3.10 Platinum - Palladium Price Difference between Domestic and Foreign Markets - The report provides charts of the spot price trends of domestic and foreign platinum and the price difference between them [83]. 3.11 Platinum - Palladium Price Ratio - The report provides a chart of the platinum - palladium price ratio, including the ratios in NYMEX and LPPM [90].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of industrial silicon has decreased slightly, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited. It is expected that the price of industrial silicon still has room to decline. Suggest considering shorting opportunities for si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Although some production enterprises have reduced supply, inventory consumption is limited, and the effect of supply - demand adjustment has not yet appeared. Future price trends still depend on the improvement of supply - demand balance and industry policy orientation. Suggest considering long opportunities for PS2605, or implementing an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News 3.1.1 Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate rate for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - A rumored meeting minutes show that on January 6, the State Administration for Market Regulation约谈ed relevant units in the photovoltaic industry, mainly involving issues such as monopoly risks and rectification requirements. It is speculated that the limit - down of the polysilicon futures was affected by this [8]. - On December 26, 2025, the State Administration for Market Regulation carried out compliance guidance on price competition in the photovoltaic industry in Hefei, Anhui, pointing out the "involution - style" competition problems in the industry [8]. - On December 24, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange announced the addition of several polysilicon futures delivery warehouses [8]. - On December 23, 2025, the Guangzhou Futures Exchange restricted the single - day opening volume of non - futures company members or clients in polysilicon futures contracts [8]. 3.1.2 Industrial Silicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the industrial silicon spot price remained stable, with the benchmark spot price at 8,802 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.50%, and the latest transaction price was 8,820 yuan/ton, and the current position was about 231,400 lots [11]. - **Supply**: In the southwest region, only a few manufacturers are operating, with low production. In Xinjiang, production is stable; in Inner Mongolia, some manufacturers have reduced production; in Shaanxi, some manufacturers have resumed production [11]. - **Demand**: In January, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and the industry's operating rate decreased. The silicone industry was affected by the cancellation of export tax rebates, and the aluminum rod output decreased, with general demand for industrial silicon [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The production cost of industrial silicon decreased slightly this week, mainly due to the decline in silicon coal prices. Profits increased slightly, and the inventory remained at a high level [11]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: It is expected that the price of industrial silicon will still decline. Suggest shorting si2605, buying put options, or implementing an arbitrage strategy [11]. 3.1.3 Polysilicon Weekly View - **Market Review**: From January 16 - 23, 2026, the polysilicon spot price fluctuated downward, with the benchmark spot price at 50,505 yuan/ton on January 23. The futures price of the main contract declined, with a weekly decline of 2.14%, and the current position was about 46,200 lots [13]. - **Supply**: In January 2026, the polysilicon output continued to decline, and most enterprises were operating at reduced loads. It is expected that the domestic polysilicon output in January will be about 95,000 tons [13]. - **Demand**: Although the downstream demand schedule has increased compared with the initial forecast of the month, it is still declining month - on - month. The demand in the energy storage field is expected to be optimistic, but the power battery is in the off - season, and the procurement demand is restricted [13]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: This week, the cost increased, and the profit decreased significantly. The inventory showed a "high - level fluctuation" characteristic, and the overall inventory continued to accumulate [13]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The polysilicon market shows a situation of having prices but no trading. Future price trends depend on supply - demand balance and policies. Suggest going long on PS2605 or implementing an arbitrage strategy [13]. 3.2 Industry Pattern - The industrial silicon industry chain includes raw materials such as petroleum coke, charcoal, etc. The products are mainly used in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy industries, and are further applied in various fields such as electronics, construction, and new energy [19]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon spot prices (including different grades and regions) and futures contract prices (including continuous contracts and active contracts) [23][33][41] 3.4 Inventory - The report provides multiple charts of industrial silicon inventory, including industry inventory, factory inventory, market inventory, and futures inventory [52][56] 3.5 Cost and Profit - **Profit and Cost**: The report provides charts of the comprehensive profit and cost of industrial silicon [63] - **Main Production Area Electricity Prices**: Charts of electricity prices in main industrial silicon production areas such as Yunnan Nujiang, Xinjiang, and Sichuan Liangshan are provided [68][70] - **Silica Stone Prices**: Charts of silica stone prices in regions such as Guangxi, Henan, and Shaanxi are provided [77][81] - **Petroleum Coke, Electrodes, and Silicon Coal**: Charts of prices of petroleum coke, graphite electrodes, and silicon coal in different regions are provided [84][90] 3.6 Supply - **Output**: Charts of industrial silicon weekly and monthly output are provided [96] - **Operating Rate and Production Capacity**: Charts of industrial silicon operating rate and monthly production capacity are provided, and information on new production capacity projects in various regions in 2025 - 2026 is listed, with a total new production capacity of 1.98 million tons [101][104] 3.7 Demand - **Consumption Overview**: Charts of industrial silicon consumption breakdown and structure are provided, and consumption data of different industries from 2024 - 2025 are listed [107][110] - **Polysilicon**: Charts of polysilicon monthly output, price, factory inventory, cost, and profit are provided [113][118] - **Silicone**: Charts of silicone market price, intermediate (DMC) monthly output, production cost, and production gross profit in the East China region are provided [123][129] - **Aluminum Rod**: Charts of aluminum rod weekly and monthly output, price, 6063 spot inventory, and original aluminum - based alloy production, operating rate are provided [134][138][140] - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy**: Charts of recycled aluminum alloy production, production capacity, operating rate, and inventory are provided [149][151] - **Solar/PV**: Charts of solar cell cumulative output and battery slice price are provided [156] 3.8 Import and Export - The report provides charts of industrial silicon and polysilicon import and export volumes [166][170]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.0% at constant prices, achieving the annual growth target. The quarterly growth rate showed a "high at first and stable later" trend. The tertiary industry was prominent, with the added value of the second and first industries also growing [9]. - The decline in China's real estate development investment intensified in 2025, with the investment in residential properties also facing increasing pressure. The sales side was under greater pressure, and the average price of commercial housing had obvious downward pressure [9]. - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size in China increased steadily, with new kinetic energy characteristics in industrial growth and obvious differentiation in traditional industries. Exports showed resilience, and residents' income increased steadily [11]. - In December 2025, China's imports and exports reached a record - high monthly scale. Exports to ASEAN and the EU increased, while exports to the US decreased [97]. - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range, and the non - manufacturing business activity index also rebounded, but there were significant industry differences [252][260]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 National Economic Accounting - In 2025, China's GDP reached 1,401,879 billion yuan, a 5.0% year - on - year increase at constant prices. The quarterly growth rates from the first to the fourth quarter were 5.4%, 5.2%, 4.8%, and 4.5% respectively. The tertiary industry added value was 808,879 billion yuan, growing 5.4%. The second - industry added value was 499,653 billion yuan, growing 4.5%. The first - industry added value was 93,347 billion yuan, growing 3.9% [9]. 3.2 Industry - In December 2025, the added value of industrial enterprises above the designated size increased by 5.2% year - on - year and 0.49% month - on - month, with an annual growth of 5.9%. Manufacturing was the main growth driver, and new kinetic energy in industrial growth was prominent, while traditional high - energy - consuming sectors were weak. Exports showed resilience [11]. 3.3 Price Index - In December 2025, China's CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and remained flat for the whole year. Food prices increased by 1.1%, and non - food prices increased by 0.8%. PPI decreased by 1.9% year - on - year in December 2025, with a 2.6% decline for the whole year [64][72]. 3.4 Real Estate - In 2025, China's real estate development investment was 827.88 billion yuan, a 17.2% year - on - year decrease. Residential investment decreased by 16.3%. The construction area, new construction area, and sales volume of commercial housing all declined [9][125][129][133]. 3.5 Foreign Trade and Investment - In December 2025, China's total imports and exports were 601.42 billion US dollars, a 6.24% year - on - year increase. Exports were 357.78 billion US dollars, a 6.6% increase, and imports were 243.64 billion US dollars, a 5.7% increase. The trade surplus was 114.14 billion US dollars [97]. 3.6 Fixed - Asset Investment - In 2025, China's fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 4,851.86 billion yuan, a 3.8% year - on - year decrease. Private fixed - asset investment decreased by 6.4%. Investment in the first, second, and third industries showed different trends [117]. 3.7 Domestic Trade - The report shows the trends of service retail sales, catering revenue, and commodity retail, and the year - on - year changes in the retail sales of enterprises above the designated size in various industries [161][163][168]. 3.8 Transportation - The report presents the year - on - year changes in the transportation volume of four types of goods and passengers, and the traffic flow of subways in nine major cities and traffic fixed - asset investment [171][176][179]. 3.9 Banking and Currency - The report analyzes the new social financing scale, social financing scale stock, new RMB loans, and currency liquidity. In December, the M1 - M2 "scissors gap" expanded, reflecting weakening capital activation and weak corporate business and trading willingness [186][197][203]. 3.10 Fiscal and Employment - The report shows the central and local general budget public revenues and expenditures, and the situation of urban new employment and surveyed unemployment rate [235][240][241][245]. 3.11 Business Surveys - In December 2025, China's manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, returning to the expansion range. The non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.2%, also rebounding, but with significant industry differences [252][260]. 3.12 US Macroeconomy - The report provides data on the quarterly changes in the US real GDP annualized quarterly rate, employment, retail sales, and the Fed's asset structure and federal funds rate [267][271][277][279].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Affected by geopolitical factors, the center of crude oil prices has shifted upward, production profits are poor, and the cost side provides support. The operating rate is at a relatively low level compared to the same period, resulting in a short - term low supply. Although it is a seasonal off - peak season, policies such as the year - end sales push in the automotive and home appliance sectors and the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted demand, and the downstream operating rate is higher than that of last year. Polyolefin inventories are not high, and the sentiment in the chemical market is positive, so the center of polyolefin prices may move upward [10]. - For futures and options strategies, short - term long positions are recommended [10]. - Regarding the PP unilateral strategy, due to large new PP production capacities and weak downstream demand, the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. The current advice is to short PP but temporarily wait and see [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview 3.1.1 Inventory - China's polyethylene production enterprise sample inventory is expected to be around 320,000 tons, and the inventory is expected to continue its downward trend. This is mainly because production enterprises face certain shipment pressure near the end of the month and are expected to actively reduce inventory. China's polypropylene production enterprise inventory is expected to be around 440,000 tons, an increase from the current level [9]. 3.1.2 Supply - This week, plants such as Maoming Petrochemical, Shanghai Petrochemical, and Sinochem Quanzhou are scheduled to restart, and new planned maintenance plants include Daqing Petrochemical and Yangzi Petrochemical. Overall production is expected to increase, with the next - period total production expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production. China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.1.3 Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.1.4 Industrial Chain Profit - The profits of oil - based PE and PP remain in a loss state. The profit of ethylene - based PE has decreased, the loss of propylene - based PP profit has widened, and the loss of PDH - based PP is still significant. The cost side provides support [9]. 3.2 PP Unilateral Strategy - Strategy: Short PP. As of January 22nd, the price was in a high - level oscillation at 6,624 yuan. - Logic: PP has large new production capacities and weak downstream demand, so the medium - to - long - term trend of PP is relatively weak. However, in the short term, supply is low, inventories are not high, and the chemical market sentiment is positive. - Operation advice: Temporarily wait and see [13]. 3.3 Supply Side 3.3.1 PE Production - This week, the overall production of PE is expected to increase. The next - period total production is expected to be 734,800 tons, an increase of 36,000 tons from the current total production [9]. 3.3.2 PP Production - China's total polypropylene production is estimated to be 788,000 tons, continuing to increase and maintaining an upward trend [9]. 3.3.3 PE and PP Imports - Relevant data charts show the import volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [86]. 3.3.4 PE and PP Capacity Analysis - PE has maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 12%. In 2025, the new production capacity was 5.43 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 41.14 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In 2026, the planned PE production capacity to be put into operation is 9.24 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 22.45%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [92][100]. - PP has also maintained high - speed capacity growth in the past 5 years, with an average annual capacity growth rate of up to 11%. In 2025, China's realized PP production capacity was about 4.555 million tons, and the capacity base increased to 49.165 million tons, an increase of 10.2% compared to 2024. In 2026, the planned PP production capacity to be put into operation is 9.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.1%. Considering the poor production profit, the actual production volume put into operation may be about half [98][102]. 3.4 Demand Side 3.4.1 PE/PP Downstream Operating Rate - The overall operating rate of PE downstream industries has slightly declined this week. Factories' expected new orders are limited, and the long - term contract consumption at the terminal is almost over. The focus is on fulfilling pre - holiday orders. In the automotive and home appliance sectors, the year - end sales push and policies such as the halving of the purchase tax for new energy vehicles have boosted the demand for modified PP materials. Coupled with the stocking demand for small home appliances, it has supported the recovery of modified PP orders [9]. 3.4.2 PE/PP Exports - Relevant data charts show the export volume of PE and PP from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [127]. 3.4.3 Plastics Products - Relevant data charts show the production volume of plastics products, the inventory of the rubber and plastics products industry, the year - on - year monthly growth rate of automobile and home appliance production, the export volume of home appliances, the domestic automobile production volume, and the automobile export volume from 2021 to 2025, but no specific data analysis for the current period is provided [130][131][136].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The overall supply and demand of crude oil still tend to be in surplus, but recent trends are still affected by geopolitical factors between the US and Iran and weather conditions in Europe and the US. The medium - to long - term outlook is still bearish, but short - term attention should be paid to the pulsed bullish impact of geopolitics. It is recommended to hold long call option positions for protection, with the resistance level of the SC2603 contract at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel [8] Summary by Directory Supply - **Drilling Quantity**: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a decrease of 30 from the previous month and 82 from the same period last year. Among them, the number of US rigs was 546, a decrease of 3 from the previous month and 43 from the same period last year [27] - **OPEC and Saudi Arabia's Crude Oil Production**: In December, the total OPEC+ crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a decrease of 238,000 barrels per day from the previous month. OPEC's crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, an increase of 105,000 barrels per day from the previous month. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, an increase of 27,000 barrels per day from the previous month [8][31] - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of January 16, US crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels per day, a decrease of 21,000 barrels per day from the previous week and an increase of 248,000 barrels per day from the same period last year. US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of total crude oil production [47] - **China's Crude Oil Production and Imports**: In 2025, China's cumulative crude oil production was 216 million tons, a 2.1% decrease from the previous month and a 1.54% increase from the same period last year. Cumulative crude oil imports were 522 million tons, a 4.4% increase from the previous year [51] Demand - **Crude Oil Demand**: In 2025, the global crude oil demand was 104 million barrels per day, a 0.43% increase from the previous month and a 1.10% increase from the same period last year. China's apparent crude oil consumption in 2025 was 791 million tons, a 3.44% increase from the previous year [58] - **Refinery Utilization Rates**: As of the week of January 16, the US refinery utilization rate was 93.3%, a decrease of 2 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 7.4 percentage points from the same period last year. The US refineries will enter the spring maintenance period, and the utilization rate may gradually decline. China's refinery utilization rate was 71.42%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points from the previous week and an increase of 1.75 percentage points from the same period last year [62] - **Refined Oil Production and Exports**: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a 5.07% decrease from the previous year; cumulative gasoline exports were 8.0128 million tons, a 17.7% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative diesel production was 209.6 million tons, a 4.55% decrease from the previous year; cumulative diesel exports were 6.68 million tons, a 16.6% decrease from the previous year. Cumulative kerosene production was 61.6166 million tons, a 5.76% increase from the previous year; cumulative kerosene exports were 21.8231 million tons, a 14.61% increase from the previous year [70][76][80] - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million, a 10.4% increase from the previous year. Among them, cumulative new energy vehicle production was 16.626 million, a 29% increase from the previous year. The new energy vehicle industry in China has developed rapidly since 2020, having a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand [85] Inventory - **OECD and Global In - Transit Crude Oil Inventory**: According to the OPEC monthly report in January, OECD's commercial oil inventory in November increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 0.3 million barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory remained at a high level [91] - **US Crude Oil and Refined Oil Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.602 million barrels, and Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 1.478 million barrels. The EIA gasoline inventory increased by 5.977 million barrels, and distillate fuel oil inventory increased by 3.348 million barrels. Due to the weakening of refinery utilization rates and weak terminal consumption, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate [93][96] - **China's Crude Oil Inventory**: China's crude oil port inventory continued to decline, and the inventory was higher than the same period last year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level [101] Market - **International and Domestic Crude Oil Prices**: Last week, international crude oil prices first rose and then fell, and the main contracts were at the lowest level in recent years during the same period. The domestic SC crude oil mainly followed the trend of international crude oil. The B - W spread weakened slightly last week and was higher than the same period last year. The SC - Oman spread rebounded and was lower than the same period last year [16][21][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1 Soda Ash - Last week, soda ash plants operated stably, production continued to rise, demand remained weak and stable, and manufacturers' inventories continued to accumulate. With sufficient soda ash production capacity, supply is expected to increase after plant overhauls end, while terminal demand remains weak, limiting price rebound space. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1150 - 1280 [8]. 2.2 Glass - Last week, there was no glass production line water - release or ignition, and a previously ignited production line started producing glass, with a slight increase in daily melting volume. Market production and sales were fair, and enterprise inventories continued to decline. Some glass production lines have cold - repair plans. After supply tightens, market production and sales have improved, and high - level inventories have decreased to relieve pressure, but they are still at a high level compared to the same period. In the short term, it will continue to fluctuate at a low level. The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 1070 - 1180 [11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1 Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [8]. - **Supply**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. Most enterprise equipment operated stably, with few overhaul expectations, and combined with the increase in new production capacity, supply remained high [8]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [8]. 3.1.2 Glass - **Inventory**: As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period [11]. - **Supply**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28% [11]. - **Profit**: From January 9 - 15, 2026, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 164.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 22.00 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was - 69.01 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 4.82 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 3.93 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.71 yuan/ton [11]. - **Demand**: As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [11]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Soda Ash Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: Natural soda mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, ammonium chloride - **Mid - stream**: Soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash) - **Downstream**: Agricultural fertilizers, glass, daily detergents [14] 3.2.2 Flat Glass Industrial Chain - **Upstream**: Auxiliary materials (clarifiers, colorants), quartz sand, limestone, soda ash; fuels include coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), petroleum coke (16%) - **Mid - stream**: Float glass, other (such as calendering method), tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, coated glass - **Downstream**: Real estate (75%), automobile (18%), electronic appliances (7%) [16] 3.3 Futures and Spot Market 3.3.1 Glass - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1103, and the closing price of the North China basis was - 83 yuan/ton. The FG5 - 9 spread closed at - 106 yuan/ton [23][33]. 3.3.2 Soda Ash - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the SA main contract was 1192, and the closing price of the North China basis was 58 yuan/ton. The SA5 - 9 spread closed at - 67 yuan/ton [28][33]. 3.4 Inventory 3.4.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 53.013 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 2.505 million heavy boxes, a decrease of 4.51%, and a year - on - year increase of 20.89%. The inventory days were 23 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous period. Inventories in North China decreased by 10.27% week - on - week, in East China by 2.07%, in South China by 3.80%, and in Central China by 10.43% [37][43][45]. 3.4.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.575 million tons, including 837,000 tons of light soda ash and 738,000 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with 1.4311 million tons in the same period last year, it increased by 14,390 tons, a rise of 10.06%. Enterprises mainly delivered previous orders, and inventory increased slightly [50]. 3.5 Supply Side 3.5.1 Glass - From January 9 - 15, 2026, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 71.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate of the float glass industry was 75.14%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.49 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0523 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.28%. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel increased by 22 yuan/ton week - on - week, that using coal - made gas increased by 4.82 yuan/ton, and that using petroleum coke increased by 9.71 yuan/ton [56][58]. 3.5.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 775,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 21,700 tons, a rise of 2.88%. Among them, the production of light soda ash was 361,500 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,400 tons, and the production of heavy soda ash was 413,800 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9,300 tons. As of January 15, 2026, the theoretical profit of soda ash produced by the ammonia - soda process in China was - 96.3 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 66.46%; the theoretical profit (per double - ton) of soda ash produced by the combined - soda process was - 44 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 108% [65][66]. 3.6 Demand Side 3.6.1 Glass - As of January 15, 2026, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.3 days, a week - on - week increase of 7.9% and a year - on - year increase of 86.4%. As the Spring Festival approaches, the deep - processing order trends in the north and south regions are differentiated. The executable days of orders in the south have slightly increased, and some orders can be maintained for more than 20 days; orders in the north and central regions have declined [71]. 3.6.2 Soda Ash - As of January 15, 2026, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 773,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 31.20%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.70%, a week - on - week increase of 21.52 percentage points. Some enterprises delivered orders during the week, overall production and sales were basically balanced, inventory increased slightly, and the overall shipment rate increased [84].