1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand fundamentals of the pig market have not improved substantially. Although the short - term price is supported by factors such as farmers' reduced sales and increased second - fattening, the overall supply is still loose due to weakened terminal consumption, group farms' weight reduction and increased supply, and active sales by social farms [7]. - The pig production capacity is sufficient. Although the number of breeding sows has declined slightly, it is still above the normal level, and the production efficiency has increased. If pork consumption does not grow significantly, the room for pig price increase before September 2025 may be limited [7]. - In the short term, the improvement of market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market. The resistance level of the main contract is around 14,000. For options, out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Situation**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.63%. The supply - demand relationship remained loose. The number of breeding sows in April 2025 was 40.38 million, a year - on - year decrease of 1.3%. The production capacity was sufficient, and the pressure on pig slaughter in the later period was still large [7]. - **Outlook and Strategy**: The supply in the pig market is sufficient in the current and future periods, and the price is under downward pressure. The short - term market sentiment supports the strengthening of the futures market, and the resistance level of the main contract is 14,000. Out - of - the - money call options can be sold [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The national average pig slaughter price was 14.12 yuan/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.15 yuan/kg and a week - on - week increase of 1.07%. The supply - demand fundamentals have not improved, and the market supply - demand remains loose [12]. - **Futures Spreads**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig Standard - Fat and Gross - White Price Differences**: The price of standard pigs was mainly supported by market sentiment, and the price of large pigs increased. The standard - fat price difference widened slightly compared with last week [29]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The average price of 7 - kg weaned piglets was 445.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 4.98% and a year - on - year decrease of 33.00%. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [33]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows was 10.50 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 0.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 23.02%. The price is expected to be weakly adjusted next week [36]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In April 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 40.38 million, a decrease of 400,000 compared with December 2024. In May, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased slightly. It is expected that the inventory may not increase in June [40][44]. - **Elimination Volume of Breeding Sows**: In May, the elimination volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased slightly. It is expected that the elimination volume may be stable and difficult to decrease in June [48]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms increased. It is expected that the inventory may decrease in June [55]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In May, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms and small and medium - sized farms decreased. It is expected that the actual slaughter volume may increase in June [58]. - **Inventory Structure of Commercial Pigs**: In May 2025, the inventory proportion of 7 - 49 kg piglets decreased, the inventory of 140 - kg and above large pigs decreased, and the inventory of 90 - 140 kg pigs increased slightly [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The national average slaughter weight of foreign - ternary pigs was 123.78 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.15%. It is expected that the slaughter weight may continue to decrease slowly next week [64]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: Terminal consumption is weak, and the cold storage rate of frozen products is at a low level. The domestic frozen products are in the de - stocking stage, and the impact on pig prices is limited [73]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 27.97%, a week - on - week increase of 0.75 percentage points. It is expected that the operating rate may decline in the future due to weak demand [76]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Profit of Pig Breeding and Slaughtering**: The weekly average profit of self - breeding and self - raising mode was 61.11 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 9.4 yuan/head. The weekly average loss of the mode of purchasing piglets increased to 53.71 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 25.16 yuan/head [89]. - **Gross Profit of Slaughtering and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis content provided, only pictures are shown. - **Pig - to - Grain Ratio**: The current pig - to - grain ratio is 5.86, with little change. It is expected to be stable with a slight decrease next week [96].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货液化气周报 ——库存继续回落 20250622 黎照锋 交易咨询号：Z0000088 从业资格号：F0210135 0769-22110802 审核：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 1 主要观点 2 期现市场 3 库存端 4 供给端 5 需求端 周度观点 u 上游：中东局势升级提振油价大幅反弹。基本面OPEC+实际产量低于其声称的声量。货币贬值之下黄金强势以及地缘局 势复杂仍为油价带来支撑。 u 供应：关税降低后，预料国内将积极补库；市场此前对于美国市场缺口也在积极寻求第三方的进口替代，也增加了潜在 供应。国产商品量边际走低，仍低于去年水平。竞品LNG价格与LPG基本持平。海运费低位反弹。 u 库存：库存继续回落，港口库容率回落至近年区间低位。炼厂库容率处于多年同期最低位置，加气站库容率相对偏高； 库存量：港口库存量回落。 u 需求：宏观需求偏弱。燃烧需求处于淡季，汽油消费量处于近四年低位，餐饮消费尚可但近月将面临禁止公费吃喝增量 政策的影响。化工需求反弹，PDH周度产能利用率继续反弹但仍然处于多年区间最低，毛利再度回落；烷基化产能利用 率反 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market is optimistic about the increase in rubber production in 2025, but the rebound after the low - level of rubber prices is weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - level support, and aggressive investors can hold long positions. Also, pay attention to the arbitrage strategy of going long on br and short on ru [6]. - The macro - environment is complex, with intensified Middle - East geopolitical conflicts, domestic reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the Fed's stance on interest rates. Trade negotiations between China and the US may be volatile. Real - estate data is poor, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views - Macro: Middle - East geopolitical conflicts intensify. China cuts reserve requirement ratio and interest rates, while the Fed keeps rates unchanged with two expected cuts this year. Sino - US trade negotiations may be volatile. Real - estate data is worse than expected, and the automobile market is highly competitive [6]. - Supply: The market is optimistic about 2025 rubber production increase. The large - cycle production capacity inflection point has arrived, but production inertia remains. The warming of the equatorial central and eastern Pacific Ocean weakens negative factors [6]. - Inventory: Qingdao dry - rubber inventory has stopped accumulating at a low level and slightly decreased, possibly due to downstream restocking. Exchange ru and nr warehouse receipts are at low levels. Cis - polybutadiene rubber inventory has rebounded to a high since 2017, and Shandong semi - steel tire finished - product inventory is much higher than last year [6]. - Demand: The domestic passenger - car price war has intensified, raising concerns about inventory pressure and weak demand. Real - estate and infrastructure construction are saturated. Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025. Construction machinery sales are low, and cement production has a deeper year - on - year negative growth as of May. Passenger - car sales are strong but may have over - consumed [6]. - Strategy: Pay attention to low - level support, aggressive investors hold long positions. Focus on the arbitrage of going long on br and short on ru [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - Rubber prices rebounded and then declined, with some varieties having large declines. The upstream oil price rebounded, but the price of butadiene, the raw material for synthetic rubber, was weak. The absolute price of old whole - latex spot is lower than last year and near the median of recent years [8][12]. - The ru basis has strengthened marginally. The month - spread has also strengthened but remains in a contango structure, which is unfavorable for long positions. The Ru9 - 1 month - spread is around - 800 in contango, the Nr consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread is around 50 and continues to weaken, and the br consecutive 1 - consecutive 3 month - spread has reversed to around 120 and is weakening marginally [15][20]. - The spot whole - latex to 20 - grade rubber spread has fallen to a low level again, and the 20 - grade rubber has a high virtual - to - real ratio. Synthetic rubber Br has rebounded relative to natural rubber [25]. - Thai raw material prices have declined marginally, and the spread between latex and cup lump has increased. Currently, rubber is being tapped globally with normal weather conditions [29]. - Processing profits have declined again recently [36]. 3.3 Inventory End - Qingdao dry - rubber inventory decreased rapidly from August 2023 to mid - October 2024 to a low since 2017, and now the low - level accumulation has stopped with a slight decrease. Butadiene port inventory has rebounded [40][45]. - The ru delivery product inventory is at a low level; the nr warehouse receipts dropped rapidly from a 5 - year high to the median level after the third quarter and are now rebounding from an extremely low level [50][56]. - Cis - polybutadiene rubber factory and trader inventories have rebounded from low levels. Tire factory and downstream trade inventories are high [59][61]. 3.4 Supply End - According to ANRPC adjusted data, the cumulative natural rubber production of member countries from January to December 2024 decreased by less than 0.5% year - on - year. China's natural rubber production from January to December 2024 was 911,400 tons, a 10% increase from the previous 854,000 tons [64]. - In 2024, rubber imports were lower than previous years due to eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In 2025, the import data of natural and synthetic rubber increased significantly, with a 17% year - on - year increase in March and a 21% increase in the first three months [68]. - The large - cycle inflection point of supply - side production capacity has arrived, and the bottom support is becoming stronger. However, production is affected by weather, pests, and profit margins, and demand affected by macro and policies determines the upper limit. There are signs of aging rubber tree age structure in production areas, especially in Indonesia [80]. 3.5 Demand End - The full - steel tire operating rate has rebounded to the median of the multi - year range, exceeding last year's level, while the semi - steel tire operating rate has rebounded slightly lower than last year and is at a high in the multi - year range [87]. - As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of tire outer - tube production is about 3% and is marginally declining, with a much slower growth rate than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth of tire exports as of May is about 9%, performing relatively well but lower than last year [92]. - Heavy - truck sales have marginally improved, with a 6% year - on - year increase in May and a 1% cumulative increase from January to May 2025 [97]. - Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) are strong due to policy incentives, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion. However, the price war has intensified, and exports face challenges such as tariffs. The support from passenger cars may be limited due to the weak real - estate and infrastructure [101]. - Overseas automobile sales are generally average, with the US and Japan seeing rebounds, but the EU performing poorly. Trade wars have disrupted consumption patterns [105]. - Cement production had negative growth last year and has marginally improved this year, but the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened as of May [111]. - Transportation investment is a key measure for stable growth but has limited effect due to infrastructure saturation. Excavator sales rebounded and then softened [115]. - Real - estate data from January to May 2025 has deteriorated, bringing pessimism. Given the long real - estate cycle and unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time [121]. - Road freight volume is stable but lower than in 2019, reflecting a decline in demand and substitution by railway and waterway transportation [124].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: Last week, the operating rate and production of soda ash enterprises continued to rise, and the market production - sales rate increased month - on - month. However, the inventory continued to accumulate. The current supply - demand pattern of soda ash is weak, with no improvement in downstream demand, continuous increases in supply and inventory, and a gradual decline in spot prices. The subsequent pattern of increasing supply and weak demand will continue to suppress market confidence. Although the short - term futures price rebounded at a low level due to macro - disturbances, the rebound momentum is insufficient under the weak reality. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. - **Glass**: Last week, due to one production line being shut down for water discharge and one for hot repair, and one previously ignited production line starting to produce glass, the weekly melting volume increased slightly, and the manufacturer's inventory increased slightly month - on - month. Currently, glass supply fluctuates within a narrow range at a low level. Entering the off - season of demand, downstream enterprises are cautious in purchasing, and manufacturers' inventory remains high. Enterprises reduce prices to promote sales. Short - term demand is seasonally weak, and high inventory puts pressure on the market. The futures valuation is low and maintains a low - level shock. Attention should be paid to the cold repair of production lines after losses deepen. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Views and Strategies Soda Ash - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [8]. - **Supply**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [8]. - **Demand**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [8]. - **View and Strategy**: The current supply - demand pattern is weak. It is recommended to trade with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [8]. Glass - **Inventory**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period [9]. - **Supply**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [9]. - **Profit**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 195.11 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 12.28 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 83.70 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.98 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was - 108.47 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.00 yuan/ton [9]. - **Demand**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48% [9]. - **View and Strategy**: Currently, supply is at a low level with narrow fluctuations, and demand is seasonally weak. It is recommended to refer to the 950 - 1050 range for short - term shock trading, sell on rebounds, or sell out - of - the - money call options [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash**: The upstream of the soda ash industry chain includes natural alkali mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [11]. - **Flat Glass**: The upstream of the flat glass industry chain includes raw materials such as quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and additives, as well as fuels like coal - made gas (24%), natural gas (40%), and petroleum coke (16%). The mid - stream products include float glass and other types. The downstream is mainly used in real estate (75%), automobiles (18%), and electronic appliances (7%) [12]. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets - **Glass**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1007, and the North China basis was 133 yuan/ton. The FG9 - 1 spread closed at - 58 yuan/ton [16][20]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 20, 2025, the closing price of the SA main contract was 11573, and the North China basis was 227 yuan/ton. The SA9 - 1 spread closed at 11 yuan/ton [19][20]. 3.4 Inventory - **Glass**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 69.887 million weight boxes, a month - on - month increase of 202,000 weight boxes or 0.29%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.82%. The inventory days were 30.8 days, the same as the previous period. There were different inventory changes in different regions [23]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7267 million tons, including 812,600 tons of light soda ash and 914,100 tons of heavy soda ash. Enterprises' shipment slowed down, new orders were average, and some enterprises' inventory increased [32]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Glass**: From June 13 - 19, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 75.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.17 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 77.85%, a month - on - month increase of 0.26 percentage points. The national float glass production was 1.0935 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year decrease of 7.88% [36]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, domestic soda ash production was 754,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,600 tons or 1.97%. Among them, light soda ash production was 338,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,000 tons, and heavy soda ash production was 416,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,600 tons. There were few maintenance enterprises, and the load of individual enterprises fluctuated, resulting in increased supply [45]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Glass**: As of June 16, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.83 days, a month - on - month decrease of 5.0% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.48%. Since June, deep - processing orders in many places have decreased [52]. - **Soda Ash**: As of June 19, 2025, the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 714,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.92%; the overall shipment rate of soda ash was 94.65%, a month - on - month increase of 2.66 percentage points. Soda ash production increased slightly. Enterprises mainly shipped pre - orders, and new order reception was average. The production - sales rate only improved slightly [62].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory. Building materials' inventory reduction continued to slow down, while plates saw a slight reduction. Among them, the factory and social inventories of rebar and wire rod continued to decline slightly, the factory and social inventories of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil turned to a slight reduction, and the factory and social inventories of medium and heavy plates both increased [7]. - The profit of blast furnace steel mills has recovered, with the operating rate and capacity utilization rate increasing month-on-month, and the daily average molten iron production increasing slightly. The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased due to losses. The output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, with significant increases in the output of rebar and wire rod, and a slight month-on-month increase in the output of hot-rolled coil. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Among them, the decline in the apparent demand of rebar slowed down, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. Currently, the impact of seasonal factors on demand still exists, and there is still marginal weakening pressure on demand [7]. - Recently, geopolitical issues have disrupted the international energy market, boosting coal prices and causing the prices of the black series to stop falling and fluctuate at low levels. In the industry, Tangshan recently received a production restriction notice, which will affect steel supply. However, since steel mills still have overall profits, the production reduction efforts of steel mills are limited, and the reduction in steel output is not obvious. As it enters the consumption off-season, the elasticity of terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is gradually slowing down. Currently, there is no obvious contradiction between steel supply and demand, but consumption is marginally weakening, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate following macro news, but the demand outlook is expected to be weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with different trends for different varieties [7]. - **Supply**: The profit of blast furnace steel mills recovered, and the output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but seasonal factors still affected demand, and there was marginal weakening pressure [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical issues affected the black series prices, and the production restriction notice in Tangshan had limited impact on steel supply reduction. Entering the consumption off-season, the inventory reduction slowed down, and steel prices continued to fluctuate at low levels [7]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure around 3020 for the RB2510 contract and the repair of the basis between futures and spot [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of June 20, 2025, the RB2510 contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the HC2510 contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar basis was 98 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil basis was 84 yuan/ton. The RB10 - 01 contract spread closed at 7 yuan/ton, and the HC10 - 01 contract spread closed at 9 yuan/ton. The Shanghai spot screw - coil spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread was - 124 yuan/ton [16][34]. 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1338.89 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.67 million tons. Among them, the rebar inventory was 551.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.01 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 340.17 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.24 million tons; the wire rod inventory was 94.09 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.64 million tons; the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.81 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.41 million tons; and the medium and heavy plate inventory was 180.75 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63 million tons [9]. 3.4 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.21 percentage points; the profitability rate was 59.31%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 242.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.57 million tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 70.93%, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.19 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 252.27 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.71 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 868.51 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.66 million tons. Among them, the output of rebar and wire rod increased significantly, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased slightly month-on-month [9]. 3.5 Demand - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The apparent demand of rebar decreased at a slower rate, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. The daily average trading volume of traders (MA5) was 9.42 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 million tons; the Shanghai wire rod procurement volume was 16,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons; the apparent demand of rebar was 219.19 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78 million tons; the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil was 330.69 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.81 million tons; the apparent demand of wire rod was 88.7 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.81 million tons; the apparent demand of cold-rolled coil was 89.76 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.53 million tons; the apparent demand of medium and heavy plates was 155.84 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29 million tons [7][9].

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货锌周报 需求深入淡季 20250622 作者：陈小国 交易咨询号：Z0021111 从业资格号：F03100622 0769-22116880 1 周度观点及策略 2 产业链结构 3 期限市场 4 库存端 5 供给端 6 需求端 7 其它 周度观点及热点资讯 周度观点 u 宏观：在向好的通胀、就业数据，以及依旧模糊的关税政策中，美联储6月议息会议依旧选择"按兵不动" ，会后美联储 官员提出后续通胀恶化的可能性，仍保持年内降息2次的预期。近期地缘政治扰动下避险情绪推动资金流入能源市场，大 宗商品走势得到一定提振。 u 供应：原料方面，海外二季度主流矿山产量表现较好，新投产矿山产出增长，全球锌精矿处于放量阶段；成品方面，下 周供应有增量预期炼厂为：山西耿翔科技有限公司，计划月底前恢复生产；云南云铜锌业股份有限公司当前生产趋于稳 定，长单已经开始招标，供货数量7000吨/月；后续供应有减量预期的炼厂为：广西华锡集团股份有限公司，从减产检修 扩大到停产检修，预计本月影响达到3000吨；中色锌业、白银有色等，计划7月开始年度检修。 u 需求：需求淡季持续深入 ...

华联期货铜周报 淡季需求有边际走弱预期 20250622 黄忠夏 交易咨询号：Z0010771 从业资格号：F0285615 0769-22119245 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 1 周度观点及策略 2 期现市场 3 供给及库存 4 初加工及终端市场 5 供需平衡表及产业链结构 周度观点及策略 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1285号 周度观点及策略 u 宏观：6月美联储按兵不动，连续四次会议暂停降息，预计今年降息两次，暗示滞胀风险增加。地缘风险、关税政策不确定及降息延 后压制市场风险偏好。 u 供应：上周国内TC（加工费）报价在-43.80美元/吨，仍处历史低位，凸显矿石供应紧张。据预测，2025年全球铜冶炼产能利用率或 跌破80%，中国炼厂面临减产压力，凸显上下游矛盾。尽管冶炼亏损，但目前国内减产意愿仍有限，间接支撑铜精矿报价。根据排产 情况，预计6月国内电解铜产量环比下降0.72万吨降幅为0.63%，同比增加12.61万吨升幅为12.55%。1-6月累计产量预计同比增加 67.09万吨升幅为11.34%。 u 需求：因铜价处于阶段高位，下游 ...

1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro: In June, the Fed kept rates unchanged, pausing rate cuts for the fourth consecutive meeting. It is expected to cut rates twice this year, hinting at an increased risk of stagflation. Geopolitical risks, uncertain tariff policies, and delayed rate cuts are suppressing market risk appetite [5]. - Supply: In June, bauxite prices fluctuated. The overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products [5]. - Demand: The previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand [5]. - Inventory: Last week, both the LME market and domestic social inventories continued to decline, indicating that the market demand is not weak in the off - season [5]. - View: Entering June, bauxite prices fluctuated, and the overall cost of alumina did not change significantly. Although the supply of domestic ores has been tight recently and concerns about imported ore supplies remain, some alumina enterprises continue to increase their operating capacity, and new projects are still expected to be launched in the southern region in the third quarter. There is still pressure for an increase in domestic supply. Due to high profits, the operating rate of electrolytic aluminum smelters remains high, but the room for output growth is limited due to capacity constraints. In May 2025, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminum and its products, a year-on-year increase of 14.7%. Domestic aluminum smelting enterprises still face pressure from environmental protection supervision and electricity price adjustments, which may continue to promote the import of primary aluminum and intermediate products. On the demand side, the previous electricity reform policy stimulated the demand for photovoltaic installations. After entering June, the marginal demand for aluminum in the photovoltaic sector is under downward pressure. The real estate market in China has recovered due to a series of policy stimuli, and real estate demand has improved. The production schedules of white goods in July - August have decreased significantly month-on-month, increasing the downward pressure on terminal demand. However, the strong demand in the new energy industry largely offsets the impact of the decline in traditional industry demand. Currently, domestic social inventories are at a long - term low. Under the dual effects of capacity constraints and stable demand, aluminum prices still have upward potential in the medium term [5]. - Strategy: For Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy operations, it is recommended to mainly buy on dips. The reference support level for Shanghai Aluminum 2508 is 20,000 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - Macro factors such as Fed's rate - decision, geopolitical risks, and tariff policies affect market risk appetite [5]. - Supply side has capacity - related situations in alumina and electrolytic aluminum, along with import trends [5]. - Demand varies in different industries like photovoltaic, real estate, white goods, and new energy [5]. - Inventory shows a downward trend in both LME and domestic social inventories [5]. - The view is that aluminum prices have medium - term upward potential, and the strategy is to buy on dips [5]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and China's aluminum ingot import profits [9][10]. 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of bauxite and its concentrates were 85.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 33.1%. In May, imports were 17.51 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 29.4%. In 2024, China imported 158.767 million tons of bauxite, a year - on - year increase of 12.3%. Guinea and Australia were the main sources. There are also many potential incremental projects in Guinea with a total expected increment of 62 million tons [20][22]. - **Alumina**: By May 2025, the weighted average full cost of China's alumina industry was 2,879.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 153.6 yuan/ton from the previous month. From January to May 2025, China's cumulative alumina production was 37.401 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. In May, production was 7.488 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5%. From January to May 2025, cumulative imports were 1.67 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 85.4%, and cumulative exports were 11.723 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 79.4% [28][33][34]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of March 2025, China's built - in electrolytic aluminum capacity was 45.172 million tons, and the operating capacity reached 43.85 million tons. In May 2025, the average fully - taxed cost of China's electrolytic aluminum industry was 16,333 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 5.1%. The average profit was about 3,717 yuan/ton. In May 2025, China's primary aluminum (electrolytic aluminum) production was 3.83 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 18.59 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.0%. In May 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 2.232 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.9% and a year - on - year increase of 41.4%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum imports were about 10.575 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.7%. From January to May, the cumulative primary aluminum exports were about 0.67 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 215.6%. On June 20, 2025, the LME futures inventory was 342,900 tons. As of June 19, 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 450,000 tons [39][43][46][50][56][57]. 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloy**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative aluminum alloy production was 7.405 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2%. In May, production was 1.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.7% [65]. - **Aluminum Products**: In May 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.762 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to May, the cumulative production was 26.831 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [72]. - **Imports and Exports of Aluminum Products**: From January to May 2025, China's cumulative imports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products were 16.7 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 6.9%, and exports were 24.3 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.1% [78]. - **Downstream Demand**: The report shows the global aluminum downstream demand structure, green demand forecasts, photovoltaic and wind power installation capacity forecasts, new energy vehicle sales forecasts, China's real estate market situation, new energy vehicle production, and power project investment, as well as China's automotive and photovoltaic aluminum consumption forecasts [83][87][92][97][102]. 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Electrolytic Aluminum Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is expected that the global primary aluminum production in 2025 will be 73.81 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.9%. There are detailed production and demand data for different regions and years from 2021 to 2027E, showing supply - demand balances in different periods [105][106][107]. - **Aluminum Industrial Chain Structure**: No detailed text description provided, but presumably related to the overall industrial chain of aluminum from bauxite to downstream products.

审核：陈小国，从业资格号:F03100622，交易咨询号：Z0021111 甲醇供需概况 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货甲醇周报 高基差下，甲醇期货或偏强震荡 20250622 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 周度观点及策略 周度观点 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇样本生产企业库存预计为34.76万吨，较本期或继续小幅去库；显性外轮卸货量预计环比增量， 加之多个内地区域至港口套利空间开启，部分下游采内地货源为主，进口表需将有所下降，预计港口甲醇库存或累库，关注外轮卸货 速度。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计，本周，中国甲醇产量及产能利用率周数据预计：产量207.63万吨左右，产能利用率92.14%左右，较本期增加； 甲醇进口样本到港计划预估26.31万吨，其中显性25.31万吨，非显性1万吨；内贸预估2.5-3.0万吨附近。 ◆ 需求：据隆众资讯统计，本周，随着中煤蒙大烯烃检修陆续进行，以及华东地区烯烃企业可能出现的降负荷预期，烯烃行业开工被动 继续降低；二甲醚、氯化物、醋酸开工率提升，甲醛开工率下降。 ◆ ...

华联期货饲料周报 7、8月关注美豆主产区天气炒作情况 豆粕短期或震荡偏强 20250622 期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 邓丹 交易咨询号：Z0011401 从业资格号：F0300922 0769-22111252 审核：陈小国 从业资格号：F03100622 交易咨询号：Z0021111 ◆ 单边：建议豆粕2509支撑位参考2850。期权方面，建议可继续持有豆粕虚值看涨期权。 ◆ 套利：暂观望。 ◆ 展望：关注几个点，首先就是美豆产区天气情况；第二看进口大豆到港的情况；第三看国内豆粕的需求情况； 第四看中加和中美贸易关系。总体来看，预计豆菜粕短期震荡偏强为主。 产业链结构 产业链结构 周度观点及策略 基本面观点 ◆ 总的来说，在中美贸易政策不确定性以及美豆主产区或有干旱预期的情况下，预计豆粕短期或震荡偏强。 ◆ 美豆方面，未来一周爱荷华、明尼苏达州一带有比较明显的降雨，玉米带东部以及密苏里州等区域则没什么 降雨；第二周中西部各地雨势比较一般，堪萨斯等大平原中北部一带气温也比较高。总体看，未来大半个月 中西部主产区大部分区域的雨势不太有利于大豆生长。 ◆ 南美方面，目前处于巴西豆出口旺 ...