Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. Core View of the Report The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of stock index remains unchanged. After a sharp rise, the short - term market may have large - scale fluctuations. Heavy - position profit - takers are advised to reduce positions on last Tuesday and Wednesday, then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged under the continuous increase of margin trading funds and the stabilization of the third - quarter report performance [16]. Summary by Directory 1. Weekly View and Strategy - **Fundamental View**: Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline. In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. The A - share performance showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter [7][10]. - **Strategy View and Outlook**: The short - term market may experience wide - range fluctuations, but the medium - term upward logic of the stock index remains unchanged. It is recommended that heavy - position profit - takers reduce positions and then cover positions on dips or conduct intraday short - term trading. The spring market long - position window has opened, and the market will maintain an oscillating upward pattern. The mid - term view of being bullish on the stock index remains unchanged. In operation, long - term mid - line positions can be held, and short - term long positions should set stop - profit levels. Call options can be held with short - term stop - profit levels set [16]. 2. Index Industry Trend Review - Last week, the market rose first and then fell. The performance of the four major indexes was different, with small and medium - cap indexes rising and large - cap indexes falling. The growth and cyclical style indexes continued to rise, while the financial, consumer, and stable style indexes declined. In the Shenwan industry, TMT and cyclical sectors such as computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, and media led the rise, while sectors such as military industry, real estate, agriculture, and coal led the decline [22][25]. 3. Main Contract and Basis Trend - Among the four major indexes, IC and IM continued to rise, while IH and IF adjusted. In terms of basis, the quarterly main contract basis of IM returned to a reasonable level. In terms of arbitrage among main contracts, IC/IF and IC/IH oscillated upwards, IH/IF oscillated, IM/IF and IM/IH oscillated upwards, and IM/IC continued to decline [32][36]. 4. Policy and Economy - **Economic Data**: In December 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing PMI was 50.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month. The supply and demand sides of the manufacturing PMI continued to recover. PPI has shown different trends since 2023. In November 2025, industrial enterprise revenue continued to decline to 1.6%, and inventory continued to rise to 4.6%. The growth rate of medium - and long - term credit has been falling since May 2023, reaching 5.89% in November 2025 [42][45][53]. - **Policy**: The Politburo set the tone for the real estate market to stop falling and stabilize and boost the capital market. The State Council issued the New Nine - Point Plan to strengthen investor returns. The central bank created two new monetary policy tools. The implementation plan for promoting the entry of medium - and long - term funds into the market was officially released, which is expected to add 800 billion yuan of long - term funds to the A - share market annually [10]. 5. Revenue and Net Profit of Each Index - The performance of A - shares showed signs of stabilization in the first quarter, declined in the second quarter, and continued to stabilize and recover in the third quarter. In the third quarter of 2025, the performance of the four major indexes rebounded again [79][83]. 6. Valuation - The Shanghai Composite Index's valuation is 17.0155, with an upper - limit value of 15.68, at the 92.32 percentile since 2010, indicating a high valuation. The ChiNext's valuation is relatively low [94]. 7. Fed Interest Rate No information provided on the Fed interest rate. 8. Capital Flows - **Margin Trading**: In 2024, the net inflow was 274.8 billion yuan; in 2025, it was 670 billion yuan; as of January 15, 2026, the net inflow was 177.1 billion yuan, with a large net inflow of 98.1 billion yuan in the first five trading days. - **ETF**: From April 7, 2025, to January 16, 2026, the ETF scale increased by 71.8 billion yuan, 137.1 billion yuan less than the previous week. As of January 16, 2026, the ETF funds had a small net outflow of 138.3 billion yuan. - **Private Securities Investment Funds**: The scale increased by 1.8253 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, with a significant increase of 1.040028 trillion yuan in October, and the current total scale is 7.0076 trillion yuan. The newly registered scale in the first 11 months of 2025 was 433.7 billion yuan. - **Insurance Funds**: In the third quarter of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 552.4 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 18.00%. In the first three quarters of 2025, the market value of A - shares held by insurance funds increased by 1.193 trillion yuan, and after deducting the scale increase, it increased by 758.4 billion yuan. - **Newly Established Funds**: As of September 30, 2025, the newly established stock - type fund shares were 323.3 billion, of which 137 billion were in the third quarter; the newly established hybrid - type fund shares were 103.6 billion, of which 53 billion were in the third quarter. In 2025, index - type funds had a net inflow of 104.9 billion yuan, while active equity - type funds had a net outflow of 444.9 billion yuan, and equity - type funds had a net outflow of 340 billion yuan [13][103][105]. 9. Technical Analysis No information provided on technical analysis other than the historical price charts of the four major indexes.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, Shanghai Tin prices broke through significantly at high levels and then fell sharply. On January 16, 2026, the spot price of Mysteel's comprehensive 1 tin was 413,500 yuan/ton, with large price fluctuations and significant changes in the basis. - In November, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal both month - on - month and year - on - year. From January to October, the domestic tin ore production was 61,800 tons, with a slight year - on - year increase, and domestic tin ore supply remained stable. Myanmar's repeated progress in mine resumption affected the price range, and Indonesia's exports decreased in December. - In November, the demand growth of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained strong, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers and some white goods slowed down. It is expected that in December, the demand in emerging sectors will maintain resilience, and the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted. In 2025, China's foreign trade imports and exports reached 45.47 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.8%, maintaining growth for 9 consecutive years. China's automobile production and sales both exceeded 34 million units in 2025, reaching a new high and ranking first globally for 17 consecutive years. The domestic economy is resilient, and the prosperity of the new energy and semiconductor industries is rising. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still a high probability of interest rate cuts in the later period. - The mining end remains tight, and processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain low under the influence of mining end disturbances. - LME inventories increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventories increased significantly week - on - week, and social inventories decreased slightly week - on - week. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the overall prosperity of semiconductors, automobiles, etc. remains upward. Overseas uncertainties remain high, and there is still an expectation of interest rate cuts in the later period. The mining end situation is volatile. High - price expectations suppress demand and stimulate supply. After the futures price was significantly pulled up by funds and then fell sharply, the industry association called on all parties in the market to maintain a rational and cautious attitude, and the exchange introduced cooling measures. In terms of operation, reduce the holdings of long positions. The weekly reference support level has been raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For those who bought put options, they can reduce their positions after the market stabilizes. Later, focus should be on the implementation of macro - measures, the disturbances of Myanmar and Congo mines, the speed of Indonesia's exports, and the verification of consumption data. [14] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - on - Week View and Strategy - **View**: The impact factors such as output, downstream demand, inventory, imports and exports, market sentiment, cost - profit, and macro environment are all rated as neutral [15]. - **Strategy**: Reduce the holdings of long positions, with the weekly reference support level raised to around 360,000 - 363,000 yuan/ton. For put option buyers, reduce positions after the market stabilizes. Focus on macro - measures, mine disturbances, Indonesia's exports, and consumption data [14]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure No specific content provided for in - depth summary. 3.3. Futures and Spot Market No specific content provided for in - depth summary other than the mention of SHFE and LME tin futures - spot prices and basis charts [21]. 3.4. Inventory - As of January 15, 2026, SHFE tin inventory was 9,526 tons, with a significant week - on - week increase. - As of January 14, 2026, LME total tin inventory was 5,925 tons, with a slight week - on - week increase. - As of January 9, 2026, refined tin social inventory was 8,076 tons, with a slight week - on - week decrease [33][37]. 3.5. Cost - Profit As of January 15, 2026, the processing fee of Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that of Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. Processing fees continued to be weak [42]. 3.6. Supply - In November 2025, refined tin production was 15,490 tons, returning to normal supply. In October 2025, domestic tin ore production was 5,236.8 tons, with a slight month - on - month decrease. - In November 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 66.5%, returning to normal [48][52]. 3.7. Demand - In November 2025, China's automobile production was 3.519 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 2.4%; China's electronic computer production was 29.028 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.4%. - In December 2025, China's PVC production was 2.137 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%; in November 2025, China's mobile electronic communication production was 142.35 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 11.6%. - In November 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 15.026 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 23.4%; China's refrigerator production was 9.442 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. - In November 2025, China's washing - machine production was 12.013 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.5%; China's color television production was 17.449 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 5%. - In November 2025, China's solar energy production was 73.49 million kilowatts, a year - on - year increase of 7.8%; China's integrated circuit production was 43.9 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 15.6% [59][64][69][74][78]. 3.8. Imports and Exports - In November 2025, China imported 15,000 tons of tin ore, with a significant month - on - month increase; imported 1,194 tons of tin ingots; and exported 2,045 tons of refined tin and alloys [82]. 3.9. Supply - Demand Table | Year/(10,000 tons) | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | China's Production | 18.1 | 15.9 | 18 | 19.8 | 17.9 | 17.4 | 18.1 | 18.45 | 18.67 | | Overseas Production | 17.7 | 19.5 | 14.8 | 15.3 | 20.1 | 19.2 | 17.1 | 17.5 | 19.3 | | Global Supply | 35.8 | 35.4 | 32.8 | 35.1 | 38 | 36.6 | 35.2 | 35.95 | 37.97 | | China's Demand | 14.9 | 14 | 16.4 | 18.4 | 18.1 | 18.75 | 19.1 | 19.3 | 19.87 | | Overseas Demand | 22.3 | 21.9 | 18.8 | 20.5 | 19.9 | 18.2 | 18.1 | 18.7 | 19.15 | | Global Demand | 37.2 | 35.9 | 35.2 | 38.9 | 38 | 36.95 | 37.2 | 38 | 39.02 | | Global Supply - Demand Balance | - 1.4 | - 0.5 | - 2.4 | - 3.8 | 0.05 | - 0.35 | - 2 | - 2.05 | - 1.05 | [85]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The current pig industry is in a critical game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The pattern of increasing supply and weak demand in the national pig market is difficult to change in the short term. The spot price of live pigs will remain at a low level even in the peak season. The futures market trend depends on market sentiment, and attention should be paid to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand [12] - The pressure on the supply side of live pigs remains high, the progress of sow capacity reduction is slow, and the winter demand improvement has limited pulling effect. The medium - term spot price of live pigs lacks continuous upward drive and may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - The supply of commercial pigs is expected to continue to increase until the first half of 2026. The lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10][12] - The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies 3.1.1. Fundamental Views - Spot: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Capacity: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results. However, the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation, and it does not mean the beginning of a new cycle of soaring pig prices. From April 2024 to November 2025, the inventory of breeding sows showed a fluctuating upward trend, and the sow capacity was basically stable in 2025. It is expected that the national live pig slaughter volume will continue to increase until May 2026, and the lowest price of this cycle is expected to be in the first quarter of 2026 [10] 3.1.2. Strategy Views and Outlook - Outlook: The industry is in a game period between short - term price pressure and long - term capacity clearance. The capacity reduction progress is slow, the supply of commercial pigs will continue to increase in the first half of 2026, and the long - term supply pressure is difficult to relieve fundamentally. The total domestic pork consumption shows a steady decline trend, and the pattern of increasing supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply pressure may further increase before the Spring Festival, and the spot price will remain low. Pay attention to factors such as the inventory of breeding sows, the slaughter rhythm of farmers, the scale of secondary fattening, and the realization of seasonal demand, and track the position dynamics of main funds [12] - Strategy: The main contract pressure level is 12300 - 13000. In terms of options, you can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13] 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets - Spot price: The weekly average price of live pig spot has increased. The national average live pig slaughter price is 12.61 yuan/kg, a week - on - week increase of 1.61% and a year - on - year decrease of 19.48%. The supply - side pressure remains high, the sow capacity reduction is slow, the winter demand improvement is limited, and the spot price may be weakly adjusted after a short - term rebound [10][23] - Spot - futures basis: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Futures spread: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Standard - fat and hair - white price difference: The demand support for fat pigs is relatively strong, and the price increase of fat pigs is greater than that of standard pigs. The national standard - fat price difference has widened to - 0.64 yuan/kg this week [42] - Piglet and binary sow price: The weekly average price of 7kg piglets is 309.05 yuan/head, a week - on - week increase of 22.00% and a year - on - year decrease of 31.03%. The current national piglet profit is about 30 yuan/head [46] - Culled sow price: The price of culled sows has adjusted narrowly following the live pig price. It is expected that the price of culled sows of multiple parities may fluctuate and adjust next week [49] 3.3. Capacity - Inventory of breeding sows: In October 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 39.9 million, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%, falling below 40 million again. The capacity regulation has achieved initial results, and the inventory is still in the green area of capacity regulation. In December, the inventory continued to decline slowly. It is expected that the inventory will slightly decline in January [54][57] - Culled volume of breeding sows: In December, the culled volume of breeding sows in 123 large - scale farms was 115,814, a month - on - month increase of 3.06% and a year - on - year increase of 18.80%. The culled volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 11,518, a month - on - month decrease of 0.75% and a year - on - year increase of 5.47%. It is expected that the culled volume may increase easily and decrease difficultly in January [61] - Inventory proportion of breeding sows: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.4. Supply Side - Inventory of commercial pigs: In December, the inventory of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 36.9216 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23% and a year - on - year increase of 4.72%. The inventory in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 1.5558 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.09% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17%. It is expected that the inventory will increase in January [69] - Slaughter volume of commercial pigs: In November, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in 123 large - scale farms was 11.3649 million, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65% and a year - on - year increase of 15.59%. The slaughter volume in 85 small and medium - sized farms was 0.5151 million, a month - on - month decrease of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 29.75%. It is expected that the slaughter volume may increase in December [72] - Slaughter average weight of commercial pigs: The weekly average slaughter weight of live pigs has adjusted narrowly and the center of gravity has slightly moved down. It is difficult to drive the increase of the slaughter weight [78] 3.5. Demand Side - Slaughter volume of live pigs: The purchase cost of slaughtering enterprises has increased, the terminal reception is average, and the weekly average operating rate is weakly running. The slaughtering enterprises have reduced production to maintain prices, increased the fresh - sales ratio, and the frozen product inventory is in the stage of slow digestion [83] - Cold storage rate of slaughtering enterprises: After the festival, the market demand has declined, the purchase cost pressure of slaughtering enterprises is high, and they have reduced production to maintain prices. The frozen product inventory level has continued to decline [86] - Operating rate and fresh - sales rate of slaughtering enterprises: This week, the operating rate of slaughtering enterprises is 35.91%, a decrease of 0.72 percentage points from last week and a decrease of 1.14 percentage points from the same period last year. It is expected that the operating rate will maintain a weak and narrow - range shock next week [89] - Substitute price: No specific analysis conclusion provided 3.6. Cost and Profit - Pig breeding and slaughtering profit: This week, the overall loss of the domestic pig breeding industry has continued to narrow. The average profit per head in the self - breeding and self - raising mode is 63.5 yuan. The average loss per head in the mode of purchasing piglets is 39.11 yuan, a significant narrowing of 35.78 yuan from last week. It is expected that the breeding profit may be under pressure in the middle and late ten days [102] - Slaughtering gross profit and feed - to - meat ratio: No specific analysis conclusion provided - Pig - to - grain ratio: This week, the pig - to - grain ratio is 5.44, a week - on - week increase of 1.26%. The market is still in the state of excessive decline warning. It is expected that the pig - to - grain ratio will continue to slightly expand next week [108]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week (2026.1.9 - 2026.1.16), the spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, with the benchmark spot price reaching 156,250 yuan/ton on January 16, 2026, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026. The main contract of lithium carbonate in the futures market fluctuated upwards, with a weekly increase of 1.94% and a closing price of 146,200 yuan/ton [11]. - The supply of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. Although a few lithium salt plants scheduled maintenance, the actual impact on production was limited, and most enterprises maintained stable production. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The demand expectation in the energy storage field remained strong, but the power battery was in a seasonal off - peak season, and some material plants' maintenance suppressed the current spot procurement demand. Downstream material plants were cautious about the current high - price spot and mainly purchased for rigid demand [11]. - This week, the industry cost remained stable, and the industry profit turned from loss to profit. The overall industry inventory level was low, and the inventory might continue to accumulate this week. Lithium salt plants were more willing to sell scattered orders, the inventory in the trader link increased, and the downstream inventory remained low or decreased [11]. - The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both strong. The positive policy expectation has not been falsified, and the supply side still has uncertainties, which support the price. However, the weak spot - market transactions and the strengthened exchange supervision measures also resist the price increase. The current upward momentum comes from the demand expectation, and attention should be paid to the wide - range fluctuations in the market caused by changes in capital sentiment due to exchange risk control [11]. - The unilateral strategy considers range - bound operations for LC2605, with the contract reference range at (130,000, 170,000); or buy put options [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly Views and Hot News - **Hot News** - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for products such as photovoltaics will be cancelled. From April 1, 2026, to December 31, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate rate for battery products will be lowered from 9% to 6%, and from January 1, 2027, the VAT export tax rebate for battery products will be cancelled [8]. - On January 4, the "Solid Waste Comprehensive Management Action Plan" proposed to promote the integrated construction of heavy non - ferrous metal mining and beneficiation, and future lithium salt supply growth may be limited by environmental protection and solid - waste treatment capacity. The resumption process of Jiangxi Jianxiawo Mining Area has raised concerns again [8]. - On December 26, the National Development and Reform Commission stated that for the "new three" industries such as new - energy vehicles, lithium batteries, and photovoltaics, the key lies in standardizing the order and innovation - leading [8]. - On December 25, Wanrun New Energy announced that it would reduce production and conduct maintenance on some production lines from December 28, 2025, for about one month, reducing the production of lithium iron phosphate by 5,000 - 20,000 tons [8]. - On December 24, it was reported that the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. was expected to resume production around the Spring Festival [8]. - The Jiangxi Yichun Tendering Network released the first environmental - impact assessment information for the lithium - mining project of Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., Ltd. [8] - **Week - ly View** - **Market Review**: The spot price of lithium carbonate rose, and the futures main contract also increased. The current main - month contract had a position of about 416,100 lots [11]. - **Supply**: Production increased slightly, with high operating rates and new - capacity contributions. Geopolitical factors had long - term impacts, but a South American mine planned to resume partial production by the end of January [11]. - **Demand**: Downstream demand scheduling decreased, but the energy - storage demand was strong. The "rush - to - export" expectation due to the tax - rebate policy was optimistic for the first - quarter demand. The power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - **Cost, Profit, and Inventory**: The cost remained stable, and the profit turned from loss to profit. The overall inventory was low, and it might continue to accumulate [11]. - **Outlook**: Supply and demand were both strong. Policy expectations and supply uncertainties supported the price, while weak transactions and exchange supervision resisted the increase. The upward momentum came from demand expectations, and attention should be paid to market fluctuations [11]. - **Strategy**: Consider range - bound operations for LC2605 or buy put options [11] 2. Industry Pattern - The lithium industry chain includes upstream raw materials (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt - lake brine, recycled lithium extraction), lithium - salt products (lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, etc.), materials (ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, etc.), lithium - ion batteries, and terminal consumption (new - energy vehicles, 3C digital, energy storage, etc.) [15][16] 3. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Market** - The closing price of the active lithium - carbonate contract was 146,200 yuan/ton, a 1.94% increase from the previous period. The trading volume increased by 26.00% to 591,523 lots, and the position decreased by 18.54% to 416,133 lots. The total number of warehouse receipts increased by 8.27% to 27,458 lots [22]. - **Spot Market** - The spot price of lithium carbonate continued to rise. As of January 16, 2026, the benchmark spot price was 156,250 yuan/ton, a 12.33% increase from January 9, 2026 [11] 4. Inventory - The total inventory of lithium carbonate was 109,844 tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous period. The market inventory decreased by 2.42% to 64,356 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 0.36% to 18,030 tons, and the registered warehouse - receipt volume increased by 8.27% to 27,458 tons [33] 5. Cost and Profit - The cost of lithium carbonate was 153,218 yuan/ton, a 0.17% increase from the previous period. The profit was 4,732 yuan/ton, a 137.24% increase from the previous loss of 12,705.2 yuan/ton [40] 6. Supply - **Production Capacity, Output, and Imports/Exports** - The production of lithium carbonate increased slightly this week. The overall industry operating rate remained high, and new production capacity contributed to the growth [11]. - Multiple companies have planned new production - capacity projects, with a total planned new capacity of 211,000 tons [46]. - **Import Situation** - The report shows import - related charts of lithium carbonate, including monthly import season charts, annual cumulative import, and import from different countries [48][49] - **Production from Different Raw Materials** - The report presents monthly production season charts of lithium carbonate from different raw materials such as spodumene, lithium mica, salt lakes, and recycled materials [58][60] - **Spodumene Import** - The report shows monthly import season charts of spodumene from different regions such as Zimbabwe and Australia, as well as import volume and cumulative import [69][72] 7. Demand - **Overall Demand** - The downstream demand scheduling decreased. The energy - storage demand was strong, but the power - battery off - peak season and material - plant maintenance suppressed procurement [11]. - The report shows charts related to the overall demand, such as monthly consumption of lithium carbonate, monthly production of new - energy vehicles, retail penetration rate of new - energy vehicles, and monthly production of power batteries [82][84]. - **Power Batteries** - The report shows charts related to power - battery production, installation, export, energy storage, and the proportion of different vehicle - type power - battery installations [88]. - **Output of Each Material** - The report shows the output of materials such as lithium iron phosphate, ternary materials, lithium cobalt oxide, and lithium manganate [98][100] 8. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - The report provides the supply - demand balance sheet of lithium carbonate from December 2024 to a certain period in 2025, including total supply, total demand, supply - demand difference, import and export volume, production from different raw materials, output of each material, and inventory [107]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core View of the Report - Short-term gold prices may fluctuate, but the medium-term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. In 2026, there is a higher probability of the Fed cutting interest rates twice, which is favorable for gold. Long - term factors such as the continued decline of the global US dollar reserve ratio, the increase in US fiscal deficit, and the expected decline in real interest rates also support gold. It is expected that gold will remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. The report suggests holding gold long - term positions and setting stop - profits in the short - term, and considering buying call options [1][10] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - ly View and Strategy Fundamental View - In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively. - Inflation: CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut. - Interest rates: The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. - Supply and demand: In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. - US economy: In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [6] Strategy View and Outlook - Outlook: The main gold futures contract was volatile at a high level last Friday. Due to the rapid changes in geopolitical conflicts, short - term fluctuations may occur, but the medium - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged. The lawsuit against the Fed chairman reflects US political turmoil and a stronger expectation of interest rate cuts in 2026, which is favorable for gold. Continue to pay attention to non - farm payroll data and changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations. From the December Fed meeting, the probability of two interest rate cuts in 2026 has increased, which is a dovish interest rate cut and favorable for gold. The market expects the new Fed chairman to be dovish, so interest rate cuts in 2026 are likely to meet expectations. In the long - term, the global US dollar reserve ratio continued to decline in the second quarter, the US fiscal deficit continued to increase, and de - dollarization is ongoing, which is favorable for gold's monetary attribute. In terms of financial attributes, it is expected that the real interest rate will continue to decline in 2026, which is also a positive factor for gold in the medium - term. For the commodity attribute, due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold demand may be greatly affected, and gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. It is necessary to pay attention to whether central bank gold purchases and investment demand can make up for the decline in jewelry demand. In summary, the long - term positive factors for gold still exist, so gold is expected to remain optimistic in the first half of 2026. - Operation suggestions: Hold gold long - term positions and set stop - profits in the short - term. Consider buying call options [10] 2. Spot and Futures Market - Last week, gold prices fluctuated upwards. In 2026, the price increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 6.88% and 5.60% respectively; last week, they were 2.36% and 2.57% respectively [22][28] 3. Inflation - CPI reached a high of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined moderately. PCE also peaked in June 2022. Core CPI and core PCE showed a downward trend. Since September 2024, CPI has been strongly volatile, and core inflation has remained stable. In December 2024, the US core CPI increased by 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, which is conducive to the Fed's interest rate cut [32] 4. Interest Rates - The interest rate of US medium - term treasury bonds has been declining since mid - to - late October 2023 until January this year. After wide - range fluctuations in 2024, the treasury bond yield continued to decline in 2025 and fluctuated around the lowest point since 2023, with short - term stabilization or rebound. In November, inflation dropped significantly, and the real interest rate increased [37][41] 5. US Economy - In the third quarter, the US GDP increased by 2.33% year - on - year, up from 2.08% in the second quarter. In December 2025, the US ISM manufacturing PMI was 47.9, continuing to decline by 0.3%; the non - manufacturing PMI was 54.4, showing continuous strength. In December, the number of non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 60,000, but the unemployment rate unexpectedly dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5%. The November data was revised downward by 8,000 to an increase of 56,000. In December 2025, the average hourly wage of US non - farm employees increased by 0.10% year - on - year, continuing to decline by 0.19% from the previous month [44][48] 6. Gold Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - When the gold supply and demand are in a tight balance, it helps the gold price rise, but when in a weak balance, it has little impact on the gold price. In 2024, the global gold supply and demand were loose, mainly due to the increase in inventory. Central bank gold purchases remained above 1000 tons. In 2024, the domestic gold supply and demand were in a tight balance, with a slight increase in supply. Demand showed a structural change, with a decline in jewelry demand and a significant increase in demand for gold bars, coins, and investment. In 2025, global and domestic investment demand increased significantly, and investment demand remained strong in the third quarter, exceeding the whole of last year in the first three quarters. Due to the new gold tax policy, the domestic physical gold market may be greatly affected, and domestic gold jewelry demand may continue to decline in 2026. In the third quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases were 219.85 tons; in the second quarter, they were 172.02 tons; in the first quarter, they were 248.57 tons. Since November 2022, the Chinese central bank has continuously purchased gold. In 2023, it purchased 224.88 tons; since 2024, it has purchased 44.17 tons. In 2025, the Chinese central bank purchased 26.74 tons. In terms of ETF demand, in 2023, the gold holding decreased by 113.69 tons; in 2024, it decreased by 28.46 tons; in 2025, it increased by 294.73 tons; in 2026, it decreased by 7.2 tons [54][57][60] 7. Exchange Rate and US Dollar Index - Not elaborated in detail in the given content, only relevant charts are mentioned 8. Gold Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - Only mentioned the reasonable range of the price difference between domestic and foreign gold markets, no specific data 9. Gold Basis - Not provided in the given content 10. Gold - Silver - Oil Ratio - Only relevant charts are mentioned, no specific data

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Coal prices are weakly stable, resulting in weak cost - side drivers. Domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, while international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, reducing import pressure and supply pressure. Current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Methanol Supply and Demand Overview - **Inventory**: This week, China's methanol sample production enterprise inventories are expected to be 44.41 tons, showing a slight week - on - week decline. Forecasted foreign vessel arrivals are expected to increase week - on - week. Recent port spot sales are average, and import apparent demand may be weak. Overall, port methanol inventories are expected to rise next week [11]. - **Supply**: This week, China's methanol production is expected to be around 2.0301 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of around 90.87%, a decrease from the current period. The estimated arrival plan for methanol import samples is 291,500 tons, including 226,000 tons of visible and 65,500 tons of non - visible imports, and domestic trade is estimated to be around 15,000 - 20,000 tons [11]. - **Demand**: This week, MTO plants are operating stably with no significant change plans, and the weekly average operating rate has decreased. In the traditional demand sector, the operating rates of glacial acetic acid, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether have increased, while the operating rate of chlorides has decreased [11]. - **Industrial chain profit**: Import profit remains in a loss, currently at - 36 yuan/ton. The profit from coal - to - methanol production in Inner Mongolia remains stable in the loss, currently at - 238 yuan/ton. Downstream profits are in a large loss, and the profit from MTO in East China remains in a loss, currently at - 1,094 yuan/ton [11]. - **Coal price**: On the supply side, it is constrained by the reduction of production quotas in Indonesia, the delay in RKAB approval, and logistics issues. On the demand side, it continues to be weak due to the price - cutting by domestic power plants, high inventory levels, and conservative procurement in non - power industries. Coal prices are weakly stable [11] [12]. Viewpoints and Strategies - **Viewpoint**: Coal prices are weakly stable, cost - side drivers are weak; domestic methanol operating rates and production remain high, international methanol operating rates have dropped to a low level, import pressure has decreased, and supply pressure has reduced; current demand from some traditional downstream sectors is weak, olefin profits are poor, the MTO maintenance plan in East China has been implemented, and the MTO industry load has decreased, putting pressure on demand. Port inventories remain high, the basis is weak, and futures prices are under pressure [12]. - **Unilateral and options**: Operate bearishly within the range, with a reference range of [2,150, 2,350] [12]. MA Unilateral Strategy (Medium - term) - **Strategy**: Short the MA605 contract [15]. - **Price and trend**: It is in a rebound trend. As of January 15, the price of MA605 is 2,273 [15]. - **Logic**: Port inventories are at a relatively high level, downstream profits are poor, and demand is under pressure [15]. - **Operation suggestion**: Operate bearishly when the price rises [15]. PP - 3MA Strategy - **Strategy**: Short the PP - 3MA spread [16]. - **Price and trend**: It is in a volatile trend. As of January 15, for the May contract, the current spread of PP - 3MA is - 227 [16]. - **Logic**: In 2026, PP will still be in the peak production period, and the supply pressure of PP is greater than that of methanol; new downstream production capacity of methanol is being put into operation on a large scale, and methanol demand is resilient [16]. - **Operation suggestion**: Wait and see for now or short when the price rises [16]. Futures and Spot Prices - **Spot price**: As of January 15, the spot price of methanol in Taicang, Jiangsu is 2,240 yuan/ton [21]. - **Basis**: As of January 15, the basis relative to the May contract is currently - 33 yuan/ton [21]. Supply - side - **Capacity utilization and production**: Last week (January 9 - 15, 2026), China's methanol production was 2,035,375 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6,990 tons; the plant capacity utilization rate was 91.11%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.34% [82]. - **International operating rate and imports**: As of January 14, 2026, China's methanol sample arrivals during the period (January 8 - 14, 2026) were 240,400 tons; among them, foreign vessels accounted for 221,100 tons (96,100 tons of visible and 125,000 tons of non - visible, including 41,100 tons of visible in Jiangsu); domestic trade vessels supplemented 19,300 tons, including 2,000 tons in Jiangsu, 10,300 tons in Guangdong, and 7,000 tons in Xiamen [90]. - **New production capacity in 2025**: In 2025, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.43 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3%, and most of the plants are equipped with downstream facilities such as MTO, acetic acid, and BDO [93]. - **New production capacity in 2026**: In 2026, China's new methanol production capacity is about 7.87 million tons, with a production capacity increase of about 7.3% [94]. Demand - side - **Apparent consumption of methanol**: From January to November, the apparent consumption of methanol was 95.22 million tons, an increase of 9.75% [100]. - **Methanol - to - olefin operating rate and production**: The MTO operating rate is 89.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.38%. The MTO plant of Zhejiang Xingxing has stopped production, and some enterprises are still operating at reduced loads, and the industry operating rate continues to decline passively [104]. - **Traditional downstream operating rate**: The traditional downstream operating rate is low [109]. - **Downstream procurement volume**: As of January 14, 2026, the orders to be delivered by sample enterprises are 237,800 tons, a slight increase of 300 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.13% [122]. - **New downstream production capacity**: The new downstream production capacity is high, corresponding to a methanol consumption of 10.52 million tons, and methanol demand remains resilient [125]. Inventory - **Enterprise inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol sample production enterprises is 450,900 tons, a slight increase of 3,200 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week increase of 0.71% [131]. - **Port inventory**: As of January 14, 2026, the inventory of China's methanol port samples is 1.4353 million tons, a decrease of 101,900 tons from the previous period, a week - on - week decrease of 6.63%. The significant reduction in port methanol inventory is mainly due to the small total unloading volume. During the period, the visible foreign vessel unloading was 96,100 tons, and the non - visible unloading was counted as 125,000 tons [134].

1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View - The supply side of coal mines has little change for the time being, with the coal mine operating rate continuing to rise slightly last week; on the demand side, the steel mill's hot metal production has slightly decreased, but there are still expectations for winter storage replenishment; the market's expectation for the fifth round of price cuts has cooled down, and there are expectations for coal production cuts. In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy - **Supply**: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons. In terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [7]. - **Demand**: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease. The profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [7]. - **Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase. The coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [7]. - **View**: In the short term, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate widely [7]. - **Strategy**: Participate in the short-term long side of the coking coal and coke 2605 contracts. The support level for coking coal 2605 is around 1,050 - 1,060 yuan/ton, and the support level for coke 2605 is around 1,620 - 1,630 yuan/ton. Pay attention to policy regulation, capacity constraints, and the customs clearance volume of imported coal in the later stage [7]. 3.2 Industrial Chain - No specific content provided for analysis 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - No specific content provided for analysis 3.4 Inventory - **Coking Coal Inventory (Mines, Ports)**: As of January 16, 2026, the inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 9.5483 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory at ports was 2.989 million tons, a slight week-on-week decrease [28]. - **Coking Coal Inventory (Coking and Steel Enterprises)**: As of January 16, 2026, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills was 8.022 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coking coal inventory of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 11.3285 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [33]. - **Coke Inventory**: As of January 16, 2026, the coke inventory at ports was 1.887 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase; the coke inventory of 247 steel mills was 6.5033 million tons, a slight week-on-week increase [38]. 3.5 Supply - **Coking Coal Import and Export**: From January to November, the cumulative import of coking coal was 10.48559 million tons, and the export was 112,960 tons [44]. - **Coal Mine Output**: On January 16, 2026, the operating rate of coking coal mines in 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week-on-week increase; the daily average output of raw coal in 523 sample mines was 1.9779 million tons [48]. - **Coking Output**: As of January 16, the capacity utilization rate of all-sample independent coking plants was 72.69%, a week-on-week decrease; the daily average output of all-sample independent coking enterprises was 634,500 tons [53]. - **Steel Mill Coke Output**: As of January 16, 2026, in terms of steel mills' coke production, the capacity utilization rate this week was 85.38%, and the daily output was 467,200 tons, a week-on-week decrease [58]. 3.6 Demand - **Hot Metal and Operating Rate**: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 78.84%; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, with a slight week-on-week decrease [66]. - **Steel Mill and Coke Profit per Ton**: As of January 16, 2026, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills surveyed by MYSTEEL was 39.83%. The average profit per ton of coke was -65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report 2.1. Steel (Rebar) - Inventory: The latest inventory of the five major steel products decreased slightly week - on - week. Rebar inventory decreased slightly, while wire rod inventory increased slightly. Under the influence of the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation increased [7]. - Supply: Affected by environmental protection in the north, the hot metal output of blast furnace steel mills decreased slightly. However, with the recovery of steel profits, steel mills are willing to resume production, and there is room for an increase in steel supply [7]. - Demand: The total apparent demand of the five major steel products rebounded week - on - week. Although the expectation of a decline in steel demand remains unchanged, the weakening pace is slow, and demand has a certain degree of resilience [7]. - View: Recently, the pace of steel mill resumption has been erratic, and rebar production has been relatively stable. However, with acceptable profitability of steel mills and low inventory levels, there is room for a marginal increase in supply. As the off - season deepens, demand gradually weakens, and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. The industrial supply - demand contradiction will gradually accumulate. Currently, the expectation of increasing supply and weakening demand in the steel market exerts pressure, but in the short term, steel prices show a range - bound trend due to macro expectations and cost support [7]. - Strategy: The 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3100 - 3200 [7]. 2.2. Iron Ore - Supply: In the latest period (January 5 - January 11, 2026), the global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume in China increased. The total global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons. The total shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.333 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons, and Brazil's shipment volume was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons. The arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [9]. - Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the steel mill profitability rate was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 2.2801 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,900 tons. Affected by environmental protection, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills decreased slightly, and the hot metal output decreased slightly week - on - week [9]. - Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons. The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.13 days. The iron ore port inventory continued to reach a new high, and the steel mill inventory increased week - on - week [9]. - View: In terms of the industry, overseas iron ore shipments continued to decline, and the expectation of tightened overseas shipments under the influence of seasonal factors was strong. The arrival volume in China remained at a high level, and the port inventory continued to reach a new high. On the demand side, in the short term, affected by environmental protection, the steel mill hot metal output decreased slightly again, but the steel mill profitability was acceptable, and the hot metal output still increased year - on - year. Overall, the supply - demand pattern of iron ore is relatively loose, but the expectation of supply - demand improvement provides certain support for ore prices [9]. - Strategy: The iron ore 2605 contract is expected to operate in the range of 800 - 850 [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Supply and Demand Data of Steel - Supply: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 85.48%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.56 percentage points; the profitability rate was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17 percentage points; the daily average hot metal output was 228.01 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.49 tons. The operating rate of 94 independent electric furnaces was 72.97%, with no week - on - week change; the capacity utilization rate was 57.99%, a week - on - week increase of 1.09 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 244.24 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.06 tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 819.21 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.62 tons [10]. - Demand: The average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 8.84 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.04 tons; the procurement volume of wire rods and rebars in Shanghai was 17,850 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4650 tons; the apparent demand for rebar was 190.34 tons, a week - on - week increase of 14.44 tons; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 314.16 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.55 tons; the apparent demand for wire rods was 71.54 tons, a week - on - week increase of 4.90 tons; the apparent demand for cold - rolled coils was 91.93 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.09 tons; the apparent demand for medium - thick plates was 158.15 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.47 tons [10]. - Inventory: The total inventory of the five major steel products was 1247.01 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.91 tons; the rebar inventory was 438.07 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.04 tons; the hot - rolled coil inventory was 362.33 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5.80 tons; the wire rod inventory was 91.76 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.95 tons; the cold - rolled coil inventory was 158.49 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.26 tons; the medium - thick plate inventory was 196.36 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.24 tons [10]. 3.2. Weekly Supply and Demand Data of Iron Ore - Shipment Volume: The global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons; the shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons; the shipment volume from 19 ports in Brazil was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons [11]. - Arrival Volume: The arrival volume at 45 ports in China was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [11]. - Inventory: The inventory at 47 ports was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the inventory of 247 steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons [11]. - Demand: The port clearance volume at 47 ports was 3.3502 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,400 tons; the daily consumption of steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons [11]. 3.3. Futures - Spot Market - As of January 16, 2026, the closing price of the RB2605 contract was 3163 yuan/ton; the closing price of the HC2605 contract was 3315 yuan/ton; the closing price of the I2605 contract was 812 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar's main contract was 137 yuan/ton; the basis of Shanghai hot - rolled coil's main contract was - 15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was 0 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was - 152 yuan/ton [21]. 3.4. Demand Side - The report mainly presents the apparent consumption volume of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, cold - rolled coils, medium - thick plates), trading volume, procurement volume, cement outbound volume, and concrete production capacity utilization rate through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [57][63][65]. 3.5. Inventory Side - The report mainly shows the inventory of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, wire rods, cold - rolled coils, medium - thick plates) and the inventory - to - sales ratio through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [78][89][98]. 3.6. Supply Side - Steel Production: The report shows the production volume of various types of steel products (such as rebar, hot - rolled coils, medium - thick plates, wire rods, cold - rolled coils) and the total production volume of the five major steel products through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [109][114][116]. - Steel Mill Operation: The report shows the operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 blast furnace steel mills and independent electric furnace steel mills through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [123]. - Hot Metal and Scrap: The report shows the hot metal production volume and scrap consumption through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [125]. - Steel Mill Profit: The report shows the steel mill profitability rate and steel profit through charts, but no specific numerical analysis is provided in the text [130]. 3.7. Raw Material - Iron Ore - Global Shipment: From January 5 - January 11, 2026, the total global iron ore shipment volume was 31.809 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 32,800 tons [136]. - Australia - Brazil Shipment: The total iron ore shipment volume from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 25.332 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.333 million tons. Australia's shipment volume was 18.689 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5100 tons, and the volume shipped from Australia to China was 15.933 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 395,000 tons. Brazil's shipment volume was 6.643 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.282 million tons [140]. - Arrival Volume: From January 5 - January 11, 2026, the arrival volume at 47 ports in China was 30.15 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.903 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 29.204 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.64 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 14.692 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 437,000 tons [153]. - Port Inventory: As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 172.887 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.4426 million tons; the daily average port clearance volume was 3.3502 million tons, a decrease of 19,400 tons. In terms of components, the Australian ore inventory was 75.8221 million tons, an increase of 1.5887 million tons; the Brazilian ore inventory was 61.6914 million tons, an increase of 612,400 tons; the trading ore inventory was 113.5285 million tons, an increase of 1.8404 million tons; the coarse powder inventory was 131.6586 million tons, an increase of 923,600 tons; the lump ore inventory was 21.6713 million tons, an increase of 387,500 tons; the iron concentrate powder inventory was 15.5271 million tons, an increase of 699,400 tons; the pellet inventory was 4.03 million tons, an increase of 432,100 tons [157][161]. - Steel Mill Inventory: The total inventory of imported iron ore in national steel mills was 92.6222 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.7263 million tons; the daily consumption of imported ore by the current sample steel mills was 2.8184 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,300 tons; the inventory - to - consumption ratio was 32.86 days, a week - on - week increase of 1.13 days [173].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - For industrial silicon, the supply has slightly decreased, but due to weak downstream demand, market activity is limited, and prices are expected to decline further. Suggested strategies include shorting si2605, buying put options, or using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [11]. - For polysilicon, downstream wafer companies have a very low willingness to accept high - priced silicon materials. Under the dual pressure of regulatory policy adjustments and supply - demand imbalances, spot prices will return to fundamentals. Suggested strategies include range - trading PS2605 and using an arbitrage strategy of shorting industrial silicon and going long on polysilicon [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Views and Hot News Hot News - From April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. From April 1, 202222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222222

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. Short - term price is supported by production cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [12][23]. - In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years. Short - term egg prices are still under pressure, while medium - term supply - demand is expected to improve [12][36]. - The egg market shows a significant supply - demand imbalance. The laying - hen inventory is at a historical high, and the market is in a state of over - capacity. However, as the inventory decreases and the Spring Festival demand starts, the supply - demand pattern is shifting from loose to tight - balance. The egg price has fundamental support, but the upward space is restricted by substitute prices and terminal consumption [13]. - The medium - term egg supply pressure has not been alleviated. The main contract is for the post - festival period, continuing to fluctuate widely in the range. The pressure level is around 3100 - 3150. For options, investors can buy call options of far - month contracts with a light position [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoint and Strategy - **Fundamental Viewpoint**: The spot price rebounds, the supply - demand situation shows short - term pressure and medium - term improvement, and the market is in a state of supply - demand imbalance with potential for improvement. The strategy is to expect the main contract to fluctuate widely and consider buying call options of far - month contracts [12][13]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - The egg industry chain includes upstream (feed, breeding, animal protection), mid - stream (egg production and sales, and elimination of laying hens), and downstream (sales to various channels such as supermarkets, restaurants, and food processing plants) [17]. 3.3 Spot and Futures Market - **Spot Price**: The national egg spot price continued to rebound due to the Spring Festival stocking. The average price in the main production areas was 3.36 yuan/jin, up 0.22 yuan/jin from last week. The price is supported by cost and farmers' reluctance to sell, and the inventory is being digested [23]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Laying - hen Inventory**: In December 2025, the national laying - hen inventory was about 1.295 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.92% and a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The number of newly - opened laying hens in January 2026 will continue to decrease, and the inventory is expected to decline but remain at a high level in the past five years [12][36]. - **Chick Rearing and Replenishment**: In December, the total sales volume of commercial - generation chick seedlings of 15 representative enterprises was 37.25 million, a month - on - month increase of 3.39%. Although the sales volume increased slightly, most small and medium - sized farmers' enthusiasm for replenishment was still low. The egg - to - chick utilization rate was generally low, and the chick price is expected to be stable [42]. - **Eliminated Hen Price**: In January, the supply of eliminated hens is expected to be sufficient, and the demand is expected to improve due to the Spring Festival stocking. The price is expected to fluctuate slightly, with an average monthly price of about 4.10 yuan/jin [46]. - **Eliminated Hen Sales**: This week, the total sales volume of eliminated hens was 658,500, a month - on - month decrease of 0.53%. The price increase led to farmers' reluctance to sell, and the overall sales volume decreased slightly [49]. 3.5 Demand Side - **Sales in Main Consumption Areas**: The egg demand shows seasonal characteristics. The price generally reaches the lowest in April, the highest in September, and then declines after the peak season [71]. - **Substitute Prices**: Although not elaborated in detail, substitute prices are factors restricting the upward space of egg prices [13]. 3.6 Cost and Profit - **Feed Price**: The egg cost is mainly affected by corn and soybean meal prices. In 2026, the supply of corn is expected to increase, and the international purchase of soybean meal may increase, with their average prices likely to decline slightly. Although the feed cost is expected to fall by 1% - 2%, the overall cost of the industry is generally above 3.5 yuan/jin [80]. - **Laying - hen Breeding Profit**: This week, the cost per jin of eggs was 3.54 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.02 yuan/jin (0.57% increase). The profit was - 0.18 yuan/jin, a month - on - month increase of 0.24 yuan/jin (57.14% increase). The cost per hen was 133.57 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 0.47 yuan/hen (0.35% increase), and the breeding profit was 4.70 yuan/hen, a month - on - month increase of 9.54 yuan/hen (197.11% increase) [88].