1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of sufficient domestic soybean supply and poor import soybean crushing margins, it is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [3]. - For US soybeans, the 13% tariff on US soybean imports is still higher than the 3% tariff on South American soybeans. Market expectations suggest that the purchase of US soybeans is limited to state - owned oil mills, and the amount flowing into crushing is limited. China has promised to purchase 12 million tons of US soybeans this season and 25 million tons per year for the next three years, but it is expected that part of the 12 million tons of purchased US soybeans will enter the national reserve [4]. - In South America, the rainfall in the central - western region of Brazil in the next two weeks is favorable for soybean sowing. Data from the US Climate Prediction Center shows that the La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year. Attention should be paid to the impact of weather on South American soybean production [4]. - Domestically, the widespread losses in domestic import soybean crushing margins have strengthened the price - holding intention of oil mills, which supports the price of soybean meal [4]. - For trading strategies, for single - sided trading, the support level for soybean meal 2601 is recommended to be around 2900 - 3000. For arbitrage, it is recommended to wait and see. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to experience short - term wide - range fluctuations [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Periodic and Spot Market - Last week, the soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly. The main reasons for the increase were the poor import soybean crushing margins, which supported the meal price, and the possibility that part of the imported US soybeans might enter the national reserve. The September USDA report slightly favored the bearish side. The US Department of Agriculture lowered the estimated yield per acre of soybeans in 2025/26 by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels per acre, increased the soybean planting area by 200,000 acres, increased the crushing volume by 15 million bushels, and decreased the export volume by 20 million bushels, resulting in an increase in the ending inventory from the August estimate of 290 million bushels to 300 million bushels [14]. - The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2. Supply Side - According to the US Department of Agriculture's export sales report, as of the week ending September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [30]. - As of the week ending October 31, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was $2.15 per bushel, a 7.73% decrease from the previous week and a 33.02% decrease from the same period last year [36]. - In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.498 million tons or 13.17%. From January to September 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.331 million tons or 5.29% [39]. - As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1079 million tons, a decrease of 405,000 tons or 5.39% from the previous week and an increase of 1.6005 million tons or 29.06% from the same period last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 1.153 million tons, an increase of 98,400 tons or 9.33% from the previous week and an increase of 168,900 tons or 17.16% from the same period last year [69]. - As of November 7, 2025 (week 45), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 7.75 days, a decrease of 0.26 days or 3.39% from October 31 and a decrease of 6.69% from the same period last year [72]. - As of October 31, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, a decrease of 600,000 tons from the previous week. The rapeseed meal inventory was 7,100 tons, unchanged from the previous week. The unexecuted contracts were 7,100 tons, a decrease of 3,000 tons from the previous week [74]. 3.3. Demand Side - The report presents data on pig prices, pig - grain ratios, pig self - breeding profits, pig外购 profits, white - feather broiler breeding profits, and laying - hen breeding profits through charts, but no specific analysis of these data is provided in the text [54][58][63].

Report Information - Report Title: Hualian Futures Iron Ore Weekly Report - Supply Strong, Demand Weak, Iron Ore Oscillating Downward [1] - Date: 20251109 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Reviewer: Xiao Yonghui [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Report's Core View - After the macro - events, during the policy vacuum period, iron ore prices returned to the real - world situation, showing an oscillating downward trend last week. Supply is strong with a significant increase in near - end foreign ore arrivals and high historical shipping volumes, while demand is weak as pig iron production continues to decline, steel mill profitability drops sharply, and blast furnace maintenance expands. With supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices are expected to oscillate weakly [4]. - Strategy: Short the Iron Ore 2601 contract on rallies, with a reference pressure level of 820 - 850 yuan/ton [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Supply - **Global Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased by 174,600 tons week - on - week to 3.2138 million tons. Non - mainstream regions' shipping decreased by 13,600 tons week - on - week to 530,300 tons [4][39]. - **Australia and Brazil Shipping**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, Australia's 19 ports shipped 1.8275 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 92,000 tons; Brazil's 19 ports shipped 856,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 69,100 tons [4][36]. - **Arrival Volume**: From October 27 to November 2, 2025, the arrival volume at China's 45 ports increased by 1.1893 million tons week - on - week to 3.2184 million tons; the total arrival volume at the six northern ports was 1.5859 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 490,000 tons [4][48]. - **Domestic Mine Supply**: As of November 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 126 mine enterprises was 63.16%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.71%; the daily average output of iron concentrate powder was 39,880 tons/day, a decrease of 4,500 tons from the previous week [61]. 3.2 Demand - **Pig Iron Production and Blast Furnace Operation**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.13%, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%; the daily average pig iron output decreased by 21,400 tons week - on - week to 234,220 tons, and pig iron production continued to decline [4][64]. - **Steel Mill Profitability**: As of November 7, 2025, the profitability rate of 247 steel mills was 39.83%, a week - on - week decrease of 5.19% [4][78]. - **Consumption of Downstream Products**: The report shows historical data trends of consumption and production of products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, but no specific demand - related data summaries are provided [70][74]. 3.3 Inventory - **Port Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports in China was 14.89883 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 356,350 tons. Among them, Australian ore inventory was 6.17069 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 153,290 tons; Brazilian ore inventory was 5.87431 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 130,440 tons [4][17][21]. - **Steel Mill Inventory**: Steel mill imported iron ore inventory was 9.00994 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 160,080 tons. The average available days of imported ore inventory for a small sample of steel mills was 21 days, the same as the previous week [4][32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report suggests holding mid - line long positions in copper, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - Although the TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, the cash flow of smelters is supported by by - product revenues such as sulfuric acid, gold, and silver, and there is no large - scale production cut for now. In October, the increase in domestic smelting maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in the year - on - year growth rate and a month - on - month decrease in electrolytic copper production. The limited supply of anode copper restricts production, and the production in November may continue to decline. The increase in imported copper arrivals and weak downstream consumption have slowed down the inventory depletion rate [7]. - The traditional peak season is coming to an end, and the downstream copper operating rate may decline, mainly dragged down by the sluggish building materials, home appliances, and real estate industries. However, the demand from the new energy industry is strong. It is expected that the copper demand in the power grid, new energy, home appliances and other fields from Q4 2025 to 2026 will receive rigid support, forming an important support for the demand side. The release of the "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market sentiment [7]. - Last week, the LME copper inventory continued its downward trend, reaching a two - month low. The domestic social inventory continued to accumulate, and high copper prices suppressed downstream purchases. It is expected that the market will remain strong this week, with the possibility of further upward breakthrough [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Strategy**: Hold mid - line long positions, with the mid - term support range for Shanghai copper 2512 at 84,000 - 84,500 yuan/ton [6]. - **Macro**: Sino - US trade negotiations in Kuala Lumpur are unlikely to be a turning point in bilateral relations. China's "15th Five - Year Plan" has significantly boosted market sentiment [7]. - **Supply**: The TC price of copper concentrate is at a historical low, but by - product revenues support smelters. In October, domestic smelting maintenance increased, and production may decline in November. Imported copper arrivals and weak consumption slowed inventory depletion [7]. - **Demand**: The traditional peak season is ending, and downstream operating rates may fall due to weak industries, but new energy demand is strong. The "15th Five - Year Plan" has boosted market expectations [7]. - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory is down, while domestic social inventory is up, and high prices suppress purchases [7]. 3.2. Spot and Futures Markets There is no specific text content for summary in this section, only figure - related information. 3.3. Supply and Inventory - **Global Copper Resource Distribution and Capital Expenditure**: Copper resources are mainly distributed in Chile, Australia, Peru, etc. China's copper resources are relatively scarce. Global long - term capital expenditure restricts incremental supply, and existing mines face challenges in stable production. Optimistic estimates for global copper mine production increments in 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 56, 128, and 470,000 tons respectively, with corresponding growth rates of about 2.5%, 5.6%, and 1.9%. In a neutral scenario, the supply growth rates are expected to be 2.0%, 3.0%, and 1.0% [21][22]. - **Copper Concentrate**: As of October 24, 2025, the comprehensive TC price of 26% clean copper concentrate is - 42.50 US dollars/dry ton, and the comprehensive spot price is 2902 US dollars/dry ton. The zero - order spot processing fee is far below the break - even point. In August 2025, the global copper concentrate production was 1.5328 million tons, and from January to August, it was 12.1509 million tons [27]. - **Global Copper Production Distribution**: Different data sources show the copper production of various countries. The global copper mine production in 2024 was 22.388 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.1% [29]. - **Global Major Copper Mine Project Increment and Main Newly - Added Smelting Capacities**: In the next two years, there will be concentrated new and expansion projects of mines. The global copper mine capacity is expanding, but the capacity utilization rate is decreasing. In 2024, the global copper mine capacity reached 28.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.78%, and the capacity utilization rate dropped from 82.20% in 2020 to 80.1% in 2024 [32][34]. - **Copper Concentrate Import and Inventory**: In September 2025, China's copper concentrate imports were 2.587 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. From January to September, the imports were 22.634 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.7%. In the 43rd week of 2025, the port inventory of imported copper concentrate in China was 404,000 tons [37]. - **Global and Chinese Electrolytic Copper Production**: In August 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.3033 million tons, with a surplus of 256,500 tons. From January to August, the production was 18.2159 million tons, with a surplus of 1.8436 million tons. In September 2025, China's domestic electrolytic copper production was 1.1498 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.2% and a year - on - year increase of 14.48%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 10.1596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 14.64% [44]. - **Chinese Electrolytic Copper Import and Export**: In September 2025, China's refined copper imports were 374,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 21.76% and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 3.5509 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.07% [47]. - **Chinese Scrap Copper Import and Refined - Scrap Price Difference**: In September 2025, China's scrap copper imports were 184,100 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.63% and a year - on - year increase of 14.8%. From January to September, the cumulative imports were 1.699 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.38%. As of October 24, 2025, the refined - scrap price difference in the Guangdong market was 3079 yuan/ton [52]. - **International Visible Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the LME inventory was 136,900 tons, and the copper inventory in the New York market reached 348,000 tons, a new high in recent years [56][57]. - **Domestic Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, China's social inventory was 189,800 tons, and the SHFE inventory fluctuated at a low level [60][61]. 3.4. Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Primary Processing Market**: In September 2025, China's copper product output was 2.232 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 18.575 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.6%. In September 2025, China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products, and from January to September, the imports were 4.019 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. From January to September, the cumulative exports were 1.1428 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.9% [66][70]. - **Terminal Market - Power**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative power grid investment was 379.6 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 14%. In August, the single - month investment was 48.1 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 26%. From January to August, the cumulative power source investment was 499.2 billion yuan, with no year - on - year change. In August, the single - month investment was 70.4 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14% [75]. - **Terminal Market - Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, China's real estate development investment was 6.7706 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.9%, and residential investment was 5.2046 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% [78]. - **Terminal Market - Automobile**: From January to September 2025, China's automobile production and sales were 24.333 million and 24.363 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 13.3% and 12.9%. The production and sales of new energy vehicles were 11.243 million and 11.228 million units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 35.2% and 34.9%, and the new energy vehicle sales accounted for 46.1% of the total vehicle sales [82]. - **New Energy Vehicle Penetration Rate and New Energy Unit Copper Consumption**: It is predicted that by 2025, the global new energy vehicle sales will reach 25 million, accounting for about 25% of the global vehicle sales. By 2030, the market share will exceed 40%. The total copper consumption will increase from 1.882 million tons in 2025 to 4.847 million tons in 2030 [86]. - **Global Copper Downstream Consumption and Green Demand Forecast**: The new energy demand for copper is about to enter a stage of "high base * normal growth rate = high increment". It is expected that in 2025, the green demand for copper (photovoltaic, wind power, new energy vehicles) will exceed the building demand [97]. 3.5. Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Global Copper Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It is predicted that the global copper supply will still be slightly in surplus in 2025 but will decrease significantly compared to 2024, be slightly in short supply in 2026, and the shortage will widen in 2027. The domestic supply - demand will be in a tight balance, and the actual consumption growth rate of Chinese electrolytic copper in 2025 is expected to be 1.91% [104]. - **Industrial Chain Structure**: There is no specific text content for summary in this section.

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Since 2025, the cumulative increases of the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices were 57.25% and 51.89% respectively, but last week they decreased by 2.94% and 6.17% [4][21]. - The long - term bullish logic for gold remains intact, including a weakening US dollar and central bank gold purchases due to global political and economic instability [6]. - Short - term advice is to take profits on long gold positions, and for options, take profits on purchased call options [1][6]. Summary by Directory Fundamental Viewpoints - **Price Trends**: Since 2025, the London Gold and Shanghai Gold indices had significant increases, but declined last week [4][21]. - **Inflation**: CPI reached a peak of 9.1% in June 2022 and then declined. Since February 2024, CPI rebounded, and core inflation showed signs of slowing decline or rising. In September 2025, CPI slightly increased, while core CPI slightly decreased [4][24]. - **Interest Rates**: US medium - term Treasury yields declined from mid - October 2023 to January 2025, rebounded since February 2024, and fell below the 2024 low since September [4][28]. - **Supply and Demand**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is conducive to price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, mainly due to increased investment demand. The domestic gold market remained in a tight balance in 2024 and 2025, with significant increases in investment demand and central bank gold purchases [4][41]. - **US Economy**: In August 2025, US non - farm employment data was much weaker than expected, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.3%. The average hourly wage of non - farm employees increased by 0.4% [4][37]. Strategy Viewpoints and Outlook - **Outlook**: Gold prices opened high and closed low last Friday, with a slight decline. After a significant increase due to risk - aversion sentiment, gold prices dropped on the evening of October 21st, mainly due to a decline in risk - aversion sentiment and profit - taking from overbought technical conditions. However, the long - term upward trend of gold remains [6]. - **Strategy**: For long gold positions, consider reducing positions in the medium term and setting stop - profit levels. For call options, take profits [6]. Gold Supply and Demand - **Global and Domestic Supply - Demand Tables**: When the gold market is in a tight supply - demand balance, it is beneficial for price increases. In 2024, the global gold supply - demand situation became less loose, and the domestic market remained in a tight balance [38][41]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: In the second quarter of 2025, global central bank gold purchases continued to decline. The Chinese central bank has been purchasing gold since 2022, with different purchase volumes in each quarter of 2025 [45]. - **ETF Demand**: In 2023 and 2024, gold holdings in ETFs decreased. As of October 24, 2025, gold holdings in ETFs increased by 265.07 tons, but last week there was a reduction of 3.91 tons [46]. Other Market Indicators - **Exchange Rates and Dollar Index**: The report presents trends in the RMB exchange rate, the US dollar index, and exchange rates between the US dollar and other major currencies [53]. - **Gold Price Differences**: The price difference between domestic and international gold markets fluctuated significantly [69][70]. - **Precious Metal and Oil Ratios**: The report shows trends in the gold - silver ratio and the gold - oil ratio [72].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current pig market is characterized by an oversupply situation, with high pig production capacity and a weak demand outlook. The short - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse, and the pig price is under pressure. Although the policy has released positive signals, the actual reduction in production capacity is less than expected. The pig price is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state in the short term, with a possible seasonal improvement in the fourth quarter and a potential price rebound [7][8]. - For the strategy, the main contract of live pigs is expected to fluctuate widely at a low level, with a reference range of 11,000 - 13,000. In the options market, selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Views and Strategies - **Fundamental Viewpoints** - **Spot Market**: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low pig price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, providing some support around 10 yuan/kg. However, the high supply and weak demand situation persists, and the market is expected to remain weak and volatile [7][14]. - **Production Capacity**: In the first three quarters of 2025, the national pig slaughter reached 529.92 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 1.8%. The pork output was 43.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.0%. By the end of the third quarter, the national pig inventory was 436.8 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.3%. In September 2025, the inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to continue to grow until May 2026 [7]. - **Strategy Views and Outlook** - **Outlook**: Policy signals are positive, but the actual reduction in production capacity is slow. In the short term, the supply is abundant, and it is the off - season for demand, so the pig price is under pressure. In the medium term, the production capacity is still being released. The government has introduced a "double 100,000 - head" task for large - scale breeding enterprises. The supply pressure in the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of next year is still large, but the demand may improve seasonally in the fourth quarter [8]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand imbalance is expected to continue in the short term. The main contract is expected to fluctuate between 11,000 - 13,000. Selling out - of - the - money put options is recommended [8]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Market - **Pig Futures and Spot Prices**: The weekly average price of live pigs increased to 11.33 yuan/kg, up 3.47% week - on - week and down 34.92% year - on - year. The low price has increased the enthusiasm for secondary fattening, but the high supply and weak demand situation persists [14]. - **Futures - Spot Basis**: No specific information provided. - **Futures Price Spreads**: No specific analysis provided. - **Standard - Fat and Hairy - White Price Spreads**: The prices of standard and fat pigs increased synchronously this week. The average price difference between standard and fat pigs was - 0.76 yuan/kg, the same as last week. The increase was due to the sufficient supply of standard pigs, low inventory of large - weight fat pigs, and the recovery of catering consumption. The price increase of standard pigs was more significant, leading to a narrowing of the price difference [34]. - **Prices of Piglets and Binary Sows**: The weekly average price of 7 - kg piglets was 166.43 yuan/head, up 0.72% week - on - week and down 50.57% year - on - year. The low market sentiment and strict environmental regulations in Guangdong and Guangxi have reduced the enthusiasm for piglet replenishment [38]. - **Price of Culled Sows**: The average price of culled sows this week was 8.29 yuan/kg, up 2.01% week - on - week and down 35.59% year - on - year. The price is expected to continue to fluctuate with the pig price [41]. 3.3. Production Capacity - **Inventory of Breeding Sows**: In September 2025, the national inventory of breeding sows was 4.035 million heads, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Although it is within the normal range, it is at the upper limit. The production efficiency has improved, and the pig slaughter is expected to grow until May 2026. According to sample data, the inventory of breeding sows in large - scale farms decreased slightly in September, and the inventory of small and medium - sized farms also decreased [45][48]. - **Culling Volume of Breeding Sows**: In September, the culling volume of breeding sows in large - scale farms was 106,603 heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.54% and a year - on - year increase of 9.60%. The culling volume of small and medium - sized farms was 11,526 heads, a month - on - month increase of 13.80% and a year - on - year increase of 29.83%. The culling volume is expected to continue to increase in October, but the process may be slow [51]. - **Inventory Proportion of Breeding Sows**: No specific analysis provided. 3.4. Supply Side - **Inventory of Commercial Pigs**: In September, the inventory of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 36.8499 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.44% and a year - on - year increase of 5.29%. The inventory of small and medium - sized farms was 1.5402 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 2.93% and a year - on - year increase of 6.29%. The inventory is expected to increase in October [58]. - **Slaughter Volume of Commercial Pigs**: In September, the slaughter volume of commercial pigs in large - scale farms was 10.2173 million heads, a month - on - month decrease of 4.54% and a year - on - year increase of 23.49%. The slaughter volume of small and medium - sized farms was 0.4803 million heads, a month - on - month increase of 1.39% and a year - on - year increase of 33.52%. The slaughter volume is expected to increase in October [61]. - **Average Slaughter Weight of Commercial Pigs**: The average slaughter weight of national outer - ternary pigs this week was 123.21 kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.49%. The weight is expected to be supported next week [67]. 3.5. Demand Side - **Pig Slaughter Volume**: The proportion of pigs under 90 kg and over 150 kg in the slaughter volume remained the same as last week. The temperature drop has increased the expectation of a wider standard - fat price difference, but it has little impact on the slaughter proportion of small and large - weight pigs [71]. - **Cold Storage Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The fresh - sales rate of key slaughtering enterprises this week was 86.14%, the same as last week. The cold - storage rate was 18.08%, an increase of 0.24% from last week. The fresh - sales rate is expected to decline next week, and the cold - storage rate may continue to increase slightly [76]. - **Operating Rate and Fresh - Sales Rate of Slaughtering Enterprises**: The operating rate of slaughtering enterprises this week was 34.94%, an increase of 2.56 percentage points from last week and 7.35 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [77]. - **Substitute Prices**: No specific analysis provided. 3.6. Cost and Profit - **Pig Breeding and Slaughtering Profit**: The pig breeding industry has entered a deep - loss stage. The average loss per head of self - breeding and self - raising and purchasing piglets this week was 149.54 yuan and 279.65 yuan respectively, both showing a downward trend. The price is expected to remain strong in the short term, but the overall supply - demand pattern has not changed fundamentally [91]. - **Slaughter Gross Profit and Feed - to - Meat Ratio**: No specific analysis provided. - **Pig - Grain Ratio**: The pig - grain ratio this week was 5.13, a week - on - week increase of 3.89%. The market has returned to the third - level early - warning range. The pig - grain ratio is expected to fluctuate little next week [98].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, SHFE nickel fluctuated, with a weekly increase of 0.68%. Domestic economy has resilience, and the prosperity of new energy, semiconductor, and photovoltaic industries has increased; overseas uncertainties remain high, and there are still expectations of interest rate cuts in the later period [6]. - In terms of supply, in 2025, the RKAB approval quota provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. In September, China's nickel imports were large, and the output of nickel - iron was at a low level; Indonesia's nickel - iron production remained high. The operating rate of nickel sulfate enterprises rebounded, and the output increased slightly month - on - month. In September 2025, the total output of domestic refined nickel was 36,795 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [6]. - In terms of demand, in September, the stainless - steel market continued to recover. It is expected that in October, stainless - steel production will still be restricted, with a moderate rebound. The domestic stainless - steel inventory is still high. The operating rate of large stainless - steel manufacturers has rebounded, and the inventory decreased first and then increased. In the new - energy industry chain, the market share of ternary batteries is declining, but the output of ternary materials increased significantly from August to September [6]. - In terms of inventory, last week, LME nickel inventory increased month - on - month, and SHFE inventory increased slightly month - on - month. The social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [6]. - In the short term, the RKAB approval quota in 2025 provides sufficient raw material guarantee for smelters, but the risk of new policy disturbances still exists. Trade disputes have an emotional impact on the market. Returning to the fundamentals, imported nickel remains at a high level, and inventory has increased. Indonesian domestic policies have disturbances to supply, but have not actually affected it yet. The output of downstream stainless - steel has improved marginally after falling from a high level, and the inventory has also improved marginally. The nickel price will fluctuate within a range as a whole [6]. - The strategy is to conduct short - term trading on the SHFE nickel 2512 contract. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options. Later, pay attention to changes in the mine end, stainless - steel output, trade disputes, and Indonesian exports [6]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Chain Structure - The nickel industry chain includes nickel ore (red - soil nickel ore, sulfide nickel ore), wet - process intermediates, nickel - iron, high - grade nickel matte, nickel sulfate, electrolytic nickel, and downstream products such as stainless steel, batteries, electroplating, and alloys [8]. 2. Spot and Futures Market - The report shows figures of LME nickel premium/discount (spot/3 - month, in US dollars per ton) and SHFE electrolytic nickel main - contract basis (in yuan per ton) [10]. 3. Supply Side Nickel Ore - In 2024, China's imports of Philippine nickel ore decreased significantly, with imports of 36.5763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.7%. In August and September 2025, imports were 634,670 tons and 611,440 tons respectively, showing a seasonal increase [18]. Nickel Pig Iron - In 2024, Indonesia's nickel - iron output was 1.5138 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%. In September 2025, the output was 156,500 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. In 2024, domestic nickel - iron output was 296,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 20.9%. In September 2025, the output was 21,700 tons, a slight decrease month - on - month and still at a low level [21]. - In August and September 2025, China's nickel - iron imports were 874,000 tons and 1.085 million tons respectively, showing a significant month - on - month increase. In September 2025, the nickel - pig - iron inventory was 19,900 tons, remaining stable [25]. Refined Nickel - With the continuous release of electrowinning nickel production capacity, in 2024, the supply of pure nickel continued to expand. In September 2025, the total domestic refined - nickel output was 36,795 tons. From July to August 2025, the apparent consumption was 29,883.05 tons and 37,551.45 tons respectively [28]. - In September 2025, China's nickel imports were 278,600 tons, at a high level; exports were 17,000 tons, a slight month - on - month decline [31]. Intermediate Products - According to MYSTEEL research statistics, in September 2025, the output of Indonesia's MHP (nickel - cobalt hydroxide) was 41,600 tons, a slight month - on - month decline but still at a historical high [37]. - The growth rate of Indonesia's high - grade nickel matte output has been relatively under pressure this year. In 2024, the output was 267,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.54%. In August and September 2025, the output was 20,300 tons and 21,300 tons respectively. From the project planning perspective, there are many planned production capacities for intermediate products from 2025 to 2027 [43]. - In September 2025, the output of nickel sulfate was 39,045.4 tons, an increase month - on - month. From August to September 2025, the imports of nickel sulfate were 30,292 tons and 29,533 tons respectively [47]. 4. Demand Side Stainless - Steel Demand - In 2024, the release of stainless - steel production capacity was relatively slow. The output of 43 sample stainless - steel enterprises was 38.2582 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.43%. In September 2025, the stainless - steel output was 3.4267 million tons, showing an increase after falling from a high level. The latest total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,005,282 tons, an increase month - on - month [54]. Cathode Material Demand - In 2024, the output of ternary precursors was 773,100 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.5%. From the perspective of the structure of power batteries, the market share of ternary batteries has shrunk to nearly 20% in terms of both output and installed capacity. It is expected that in 2025, driven by the trade - in policy, the growth of total terminal demand will still have inertia. In September 2025, the output of ternary cathode materials was 75,900 tons, continuing to rebound from a low level [59]. 5. Inventory Side Social and Bonded - Area Inventory - As of October 17, 2025, the social inventory of refined nickel was 47,505 tons, an increase from the previous week [64]. Exchange Inventory - As of October 22, 2025, the LME nickel inventory was 250,476 tons, a slight increase month - on - month. As of October 23, 2025, the SHFE inventory was 26,881 tons, a slight increase month - on - month [69].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The downstream demand has continued its seasonal recovery, and steel inventories have continued to decline. The profitability rate of steel mills has dropped to a new low for the year, and the molten iron output has decreased moderately. The supply of finished products still shows structural differentiation. However, as the peak season is more than half over, there is limited room for incremental demand, and there are expectations of production cuts after the profit margins of steel mills shrink. Currently, the demand during the peak season has fallen short of expectations, and the improvement in the weak industrial reality is limited. Nevertheless, the strong performance of coking coal and coke has provided cost support for steel prices, and the macro - environment is favorable. In the short term, steel prices will fluctuate at a low level. - The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3120 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The latest inventory of the five major steel products has decreased compared to the previous period. Among them, medium - thick plates have slightly increased in inventory, while rebar has seen a significant reduction in inventory, and other products have slightly decreased [6]. - **Supply**: The profitability of steel mills has continued to narrow, the daily average molten iron output has continued to decline slightly, the output of the five major steel products has varied, the output of building materials has stopped falling and rebounded, and the output of plates has slightly decreased [6]. - **Demand**: The total apparent demand for the five major steel products has rebounded compared to the previous period. The demand is still in the traditional peak season with obvious seasonal characteristics. However, the investment growth rates in infrastructure and real estate construction have continued to decline, the consumption of building materials remains weak, and plates are also facing the pressure of a marginal weakening in manufacturing demand [6]. - **Strategy**: The 2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 3000 - 3120 [6]. 3.2. Futures and Spot Markets - As of October 24, 2025, the RB2601 contract closed at 3046 yuan/ton, and the HC2601 contract closed at 3250 yuan/ton. The basis of Shanghai rebar was 154 yuan/ton, and the basis of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 40 yuan/ton. The RB01 - 05 contract spread closed at - 63 yuan/ton, and the HC01 - 05 contract spread closed at - 15 yuan/ton. The spot screw - coil spread in Shanghai was - 90 yuan/ton, and the screw - coil spread of the main contract was - 204 yuan/ton [15][33]. 3.3. Inventory - As of the week of October 19, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1554.85 tons, a decrease of 27.41 tons compared to the previous period. Among them, rebar inventory was 622.11 tons, a decrease of 18.94 tons; hot - rolled coil inventory was 414.92 tons, a decrease of 4.27 tons; wire rod inventory was 142.31 tons, a decrease of 0.93 tons; cold - rolled inventory was 179.02 tons, a decrease of 4.43 tons; and medium - thick plate inventory was 196.49 tons, an increase of 1.16 tons [8]. 3.4. Supply - As of the week of October 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.71%, a week - on - week increase of 0.44%; the capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a decrease of 0.39%; the profitability rate was 47.62%, a decrease of 7.79%; the daily average molten iron output was 239.9 tons, a decrease of 1.05 tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 67.86%, a decrease of 0.99%; the capacity utilization rate was 53.20%, a decrease of 0.9%; the scrap consumption was 252.94 tons, a decrease of 6.06 tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 865.32 tons, an increase of 8.37 tons compared to the previous period [8]. 3.5. Demand - As of the week of October 19, the average daily trading volume of traders (MA5) was 10.13 tons, an increase of 0.56 tons compared to the previous period; the procurement volume of wire rods in Shanghai was 19,500 tons, an increase of 700 tons; the apparent demand for rebar was 226.01 tons, an increase of 6.26 tons; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 326.73 tons, an increase of 11.18 tons; the apparent demand for wire rods was 89.25 tons, an increase of 4.83 tons; the apparent demand for cold - rolled coils was 90.5 tons, an increase of 0.24 tons; the apparent demand for medium - thick plates was 160.24 tons, a decrease of 5.19 tons [8].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash production capacity is sufficient, the output is relatively stable, and the inventory is at a high level in the same period. There is a large pressure of oversupply. After the short - term profit of soda ash is in deficit, the cost support gradually appears, but the rebound drive is insufficient, and the high supply suppresses the market greatly. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1160 - 1280 [5]. - **Glass**: The glass supply tends to be stable, the year - on - year decline in output narrows, the downstream demand continues to decline, the peak - season consumption is lower than expected, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The market continues the pattern of stable supply and weak demand. The short - term supply is difficult to decrease, and it is difficult for manufacturers to reduce inventory. The future market should pay attention to the capacity policy. The 2601 contract is expected to run in the range of 1050 - 1160 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Soda Ash Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7021 million tons, with 767,600 tons of light soda ash and 934,500 tons of heavy soda ash. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 51,800 tons, a rise of 3.14%. The enterprise shipment was okay, the production and sales tended to be balanced, and individual enterprises accumulated inventory. The pending orders of soda ash enterprises decreased within the week [5]. - **Soda Ash Supply**: As of October 23, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 74,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10 tons, a rise of 0.01%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 33,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5700 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 40,990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5600 tons. The output fluctuated slightly due to the load reduction and short - stop of individual enterprises [5]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of October 23, 2025, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.60%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points. The production and sales of individual enterprises were basically balanced [5]. - **Glass Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day compared with the previous period [6]. - **Glass Supply**: From October 17 - 23, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 76.35%, unchanged from the previous week; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged from the previous week. The national float glass output was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.51% [6]. - **Glass Profit**: From October 17 - 23, 2025, according to the production cost calculation model of Longzhong Information, the weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 120.56 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40.71 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using coal - made gas as fuel was 113.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 26.44 yuan/ton; the weekly average profit of float glass using petroleum coke as fuel was 48.23 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 42.86 yuan/ton [6]. - **Glass Demand**: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%. Enterprises with pre - stored original sheets are currently mainly digesting inventory and only appropriately replenishing some out - of - stock specifications [6]. 3.2. Industrial Chain Structure - **Soda Ash Industry Chain**: The upstream includes natural soda ash mines, raw salt, synthetic ammonia, raw salt, limestone, and ammonium chloride. The product is soda ash (light soda ash/heavy soda ash), and the downstream includes agricultural fertilizers, glass, and daily detergents [8]. - **Flat Glass Industry Chain**: The upstream raw materials include quartz sand, limestone, soda ash, and auxiliary materials (clarifiers, coloring agents), and fuels (coal - made gas 24%, natural gas 40%, petroleum coke 16%). The mid - stream products are flat glass (float glass, other methods such as calendering), and the downstream includes deep - processed products (tempered glass, laminated glass, hollow glass, coated glass) and end - use industries (real estate 75%, automobile 18%, electronic appliances 7%) [9]. 3.3. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures and Spot Prices**: As of October 24, 2025, the closing price of the FG main contract was 1092, and the North China basis was 48 yuan/ton; the closing price of the SA main contract was 1229, and the North China basis was 71 yuan/ton [13][16]. - **Contract Spreads**: As of October 24, 2025, the FG1 - 5 spread closed at - 144 yuan/ton; the SA1 - 5 spread closed at - 90 yuan/ton [19]. 3.4. Inventory - **Glass Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 66.613 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.337 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 3.64% and a year - on - year increase of 16.99%. The inventory days were 28.3 days, an increase of 1 day compared with the previous period. The inventory in major regions such as North China, East China, South China, and Central China all increased to varying degrees [22]. - **Soda Ash Inventory**: As of October 23, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.7021 million tons. Among them, the light soda ash inventory was 767,600 tons, and the heavy soda ash inventory was 934,500 tons. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 51,800 tons, a rise of 3.14% [31]. 3.5. Supply Side - **Glass Supply**: From October 10 - 16, 2025, the average operating rate of the float glass industry was 76.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34 percentage points; the average capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, unchanged from the previous week. The national float glass output was 1.1289 million tons, unchanged from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 0.62%. The profit of float glass using different fuels decreased to varying degrees [35][37]. - **Soda Ash Supply**: As of October 23, 2025, the domestic soda ash output was 74,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 10 tons, a rise of 0.01%. Among them, the output of light soda ash was 33,060 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5700 tons, and the output of heavy soda ash was 40,990 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 5600 tons. The theoretical profit of soda ash using the joint - alkali method and the ammonia - alkali method both decreased [45][48]. 3.6. Demand Side - **Glass Demand**: As of October 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 10.4 days, a week - on - week decrease of 5.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.2%. Some enterprises were in a state of no orders, and some engineering orders could be scheduled for 20 - 40 days [52]. - **Soda Ash Demand**: As of October 23, 2025, the shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 73,900 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.60%. The overall shipment rate of soda ash was 99.78%, a week - on - week increase of 5.28 percentage points. The production and sales of individual enterprises were basically balanced [64].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - It is expected that soybean and rapeseed meal will experience wide - range fluctuations in the short term. The Sino - US trade relationship remains uncertain, and attention should be paid to the progress of the trade negotiations at the end of this month. In South America, as of October 18, 21.7% of soybean sowing in Brazil has been completed, higher than 17.6% in the same period last year, and the rainfall in the central - western region in the next two weeks is favorable for sowing. The La Nina phenomenon may last until February next year, and the impact of weather on South American soybean production should be monitored. In China, high supply and high inventory suppress the price of soybean meal, but factors such as low prices of soybean oil and soybean meal, widespread losses in soybean crushing profits, and the strong willingness of oil mills to support prices form a support for the price. Considering the large actual supply pressure, the rebound height of soybean meal futures is expected to be limited [4][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Fundamental View - In the short term, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely. The Sino - US trade relationship is uncertain, and the progress of the trade negotiations at the end of this month should be followed. In South America, as of October 18, Brazil's soybean sowing progress is faster than last year, and the rainfall in the central - western region in the next two weeks is conducive to sowing. The La Nina phenomenon may affect South American soybean production. In China, high supply and high inventory suppress the soybean meal price, but the losses in soybean crushing profits and the oil mills' price - support intention support the price. After a large decline in soybean meal, short - sellers' concentrated stop - profit led to a small increase, but the rebound height of futures is limited due to supply pressure [4][5]. 3.1.2 Strategy View and Outlook - Unilateral: The pressure level of soybean meal 2601 is recommended to refer to 3100 - 3200. - Arbitrage: Temporarily on the sidelines. - Outlook: Attention should be paid to the weather in South American soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and Sino - Canadian and Sino - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [6]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure 3.2.1 Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated strongly. The main reasons for the increase were poor soybean crushing profits, which supported the meal price, and the concentrated stop - profit of short - sellers. The September USDA report was slightly bearish. The estimated soybean yield per acre was reduced by 0.1 bushels to 53.5 bushels, the planting area was increased by 200,000 acres, the crushing volume was increased by 15 million bushels, the export volume was decreased by 20 million bushels, and the ending inventory was increased from 290 million bushels in August to 300 million bushels [15]. 3.2.2 Feed Futures Main Contracts - The spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a historically low level. It is recommended to wait and see [21]. 3.2.3 Inter - variety Futures Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuated weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. 3.2.4 Spot Basis - Relevant data charts of the spot basis of Dongguan 43% protein soybean meal and Guangdong rapeseed meal are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.5 Supply Side 3.2.5.1 US Soybean Sales Data - As of September 18, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 724,459 tons [31]. 3.2.5.2 US Soybean Crushing Data - As of the week of October 17, 2025, the US soybean crushing profit was 2.38 dollars per bushel, a 12.50% decline from the previous week and a 32.96% decline from the same period last year [37]. 3.2.5.3 China's Soybean Import Volume - In September 2025, China imported 12.869 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 590,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 1.498 million tons (13.17%). From January to September 2025, the cumulative import volume was 86.18 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.331 million tons (5.29%) [40]. 3.2.5.4 China's Rapeseed Import Volume - Relevant data charts of China's monthly and cumulative rapeseed import volume are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.5.5 China's Soybean and Rapeseed Crushing Data - Relevant data charts of China's soybean and rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed meal output, and imported soybean crushing profit are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.6 Demand Side 3.2.6.1 Pig Price and Breeding Profit - Relevant data charts of China's commodity pig出栏 price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and外购 profit of pigs are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.6.2 Chicken Breeding Profit - Relevant data charts of the breeding profit of white - feather broilers and laying hens are presented, but no specific analysis is provided. 3.2.7 Inventory 3.2.7.1 Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory - As of October 17, the national port soybean inventory was 7.687 million tons, a 0.38% increase from the previous week and a 27.49% increase from last year. The domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 976,200 tons, a 9.54% decrease from the previous week and a 4.16% increase from last year [69]. 3.2.7.2 Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days - As of October 24, 2025 (week 43), the physical inventory days of soybean meal in domestic feed enterprises were 7.95 days, a 0.33% increase from October 17 and an 11.95% increase from the same period last year [72]. 3.2.7.3 Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory - As of October 17, the coastal main oil mill rapeseed inventory was 0.6 million tons, a decrease of 1.2 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.78 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons from the previous week; and the unexecuted contract was 0.98 million tons, a decrease of 0.67 million tons from the previous week [74].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, Shanghai tin (SHFE) showed an overall oscillating and slightly stronger trend. On October 24, 2025, the spot price of 1 tin was 282,000 yuan/ton, with small price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - In September 2025, the refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output from January to August was 50,200 tons, showing a slight year - on - year increase. The resumption process of tin mines in Myanmar has affected the price range [11]. - In September, the demand growth rates of integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC remained good, while the demand in traditional sectors such as computers, some white goods, and photovoltaics slowed down. In October, the demand in emerging sectors is expected to maintain its resilience, while the demand in some traditional sectors will be adjusted [11]. - The tin ore supply remains tight, and the processing fees continue to decline weakly. Overall, profits will remain at a low level under the influence of ore supply disruptions [11]. - LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory increased slightly week - on - week [11]. - Due to insufficient supply, the domestic economy still has resilience, and the semiconductor and automobile industries are generally on an upward trend. There is still high uncertainty overseas, and there is an expectation of interest rate cuts in the future. With the repeated disruptions in the ore supply, the recommended trading strategy is to take a long - biased approach, with the weekly support level around 272,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. For options, sell out - of - the - money put options [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - ly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Market Conditions**: SHFE tin oscillated slightly stronger last week. The spot price of 1 tin was 282,000 yuan/ton on October 24, 2025, with small price fluctuations and little change in the basis [11]. - **Supply**: In September 2025, refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing due to factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output in August was 6,854.21 tons, showing a slight month - on - month increase [11][43]. - **Demand**: In September, the demand for integrated circuits, automobiles, and PVC increased well, while traditional sectors like computers and some white goods slowed down. In October, emerging sectors are expected to maintain demand resilience, and some traditional sectors will adjust [11]. - **Cost and Profit**: The tin ore supply is tight, and processing fees are declining weakly. Profits will remain low under ore supply disruptions [11]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased slightly week - on - week, SHFE inventory decreased slightly week - on - week, and social inventory increased slightly week - on - week [11][28][32]. - **Strategy**: Take a long - biased approach, with the weekly support level around 272,000 - 275,000 yuan/ton. Sell out - of - the - money put options. Pay attention to macro - policies, disruptions in Myanmar and Congo tin mines, Indonesia's export speed, and consumption data [11]. 3.2 Industry Chain Structure The report mentions the tin industry chain, but no detailed content is provided. 3.3 Futures and Spot Markets The report shows the SHFE and LME tin futures and spot prices and basis, but no detailed analysis is provided [17]. 3.4 Inventory - As of October 23, 2025, SHFE inventory was 5,470 tons, decreasing slightly week - on - week. As of October 22, 2025, LME total inventory was 2,720 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week [28]. - As of October 19, 2025, the refined tin social inventory was 7,925 tons, increasing slightly week - on - week [32]. 3.5 Cost and Profit As of October 23, 2025, the processing fee for Yunnan concentrate was 11,000 yuan/ton, and that for Guangxi concentrate was 7,000 yuan/ton. The processing fees continued to be weak [38]. 3.6 Supply - In September 2025, refined tin output was 9,770 tons, decreasing due to factory maintenance, and is expected to return to normal in October. The domestic tin ore output in August was 6,854.21 tons, showing a slight month - on - month increase [43]. - In September 2025, the capacity utilization rate of tin enterprises was about 64.23%, showing a decline [50]. 3.7 Demand - In September 2025, China's automobile output was 3.227 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 13.7%. In August 2025, China's electronic computer output was 32.66 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.8% [54]. - In September 2025, China's PVC output was 2.0307 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%. In September 2025, China's mobile electronic communication output was 150.29 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.4% [57]. - In September 2025, China's air - conditioner output was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. China's refrigerator output in September 2025 was 10.1275 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [61]. - In September 2025, China's washing machine output was 11.7848 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.6%. China's color TV output in September 2025 was 20.6305 million units, a year - on - year increase of 3.9% [65]. - In September 2025, China's solar energy output was 70.87 million kilowatts, a year - on - year decrease of 1%. China's integrated circuit output in September 2025 was 43.7 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 5.9% [69]. 3.8 Import and Export In September 2025, China imported 8,700 tons of tin ore, 1,269 tons of tin ingots, and exported 1,789 tons of refined tin [74]. 3.9 Supply - Demand Table The report provides a tin balance sheet from 2017 to 2025E, showing the production, demand, and supply - demand balance of China and the world in different years [77].