1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply - side is at a major cycle inflection point. Demand is supported by interest rate cuts, and policies and replacement cycles are favorable for heavy - truck demand. However, the real estate sector is a major drag. With relatively small supply - demand contradictions and current low valuations, inflation and the capacity cycle inflection point raise the lower limit. It is predicted that the center of rubber prices will increase. It is advisable to buy at an appropriate time, with the ru operating range expected to be between 14,000 - 18,000 yuan/ton, and the short - to - medium - term support for nr at 12,400 - 12,600 yuan/ton. Also, reduce the position of the long - ru and short - nr arbitrage strategy [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - There are policy expectations for the real estate sector, which is yet to stabilize. Domestically, there is a trend against excessive competition. Abroad, the Fed's interest rate cuts are beneficial for the capital market, but the spill - over effects of a potential US recession should be guarded against. The US aims to increase its GDP to 40 trillion US dollars by 2030, which implies an average annual nominal GDP growth rate of about 5.5% in the next five years, and inflation will provide support [6]. 3.2 Supply - The major cycle inflection point has arrived. Raw materials are prone to price increases and difficult to decline. Rubber farmers' inventories were cleared at a high level in 2024 - 2025. High prices will stimulate output with high elasticity, while low prices may lead to reduced production or hoarding. Price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather. The strength of raw materials and basis reflects the current strength, but the weak spread between latex and cup lump reflects the current weakness. Currently, the enthusiasm for rubber tapping is fair. This year, the phenology in natural rubber producing areas is average, with more rainfall and floods in southern Thailand in November, making raw materials relatively firm and the processing sector unprofitable. The global output is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. Crude oil is relatively sluggish, synthetic rubber is at a medium - low level relative to crude oil, and natural rubber is relatively high compared to synthetic rubber. The substitution space of synthetic rubber for natural rubber is approaching its peak [6]. 3.3 Inventory - Qingdao's inventory is around the middle level, having increased significantly compared to 2016. The inventory - to - sales ratio is not low, but considering the large increase in imports this year and the high proportion of exports from producing areas to China, the inventory is not considered high, with an overall neutral evaluation. Attention should be paid to the seasonal peak of inventory accumulation. Due to the diversion of concentrated latex and capacity issues in Thailand, Vietnam, and China, the output of full - latex is squeezed, and the exchange warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low. The inventory of butadiene rubber is relatively high. The inventory of full - steel truck tires is lower than last year, and the inventory of semi - steel tires is at a high level with marginal destocking. Considering the market expansion, it is also evaluated as neutral [6]. 3.4 Demand - In 2025, real estate data continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround in the difficult situation will take time. Affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work, the recovery of road freight volume is difficult. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. However, heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly. Overseas markets rely more on tire replacement demand, and the Fed's interest rate cuts are conducive to stimulating demand. Rubber demand follows the macro - economy, and it is expected that global demand will grow by about 2% in 2026 [6]. 3.5 Market Data Analysis - **Price Relationship**: The basis of ru is at a multi - year high; the spread between full - latex and Thai mixed rubber is at a low level; the ru 9 - January spread is 680, stronger than last year; the nr continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 80 and weakening; the br continuous 1 - continuous 3 spread is around - 65; the spread between full - latex and 20 - type rubber has rebounded from a low level to a relatively high level in the past year; synthetic rubber Br is at a relatively low position compared to natural rubber [16][20][25]. - **Raw Material Prices**: Thai raw materials are consolidating with an upward bias. In 2025, Thai raw material prices were relatively strong compared to finished products, indicating a tightening of raw material production capacity. However, the continuous weakness of the spread between latex and cup lump suggests that supply problems are not significant [35]. - **Processing Profits**: Thai processing profits are low and still in the negative range, reflecting over - capacity in processing and tight raw materials in Thailand [40]. - **Inventory Data**: Qingdao's inventory is at a medium level, but considering imports, it is not overly high. Exchange ru warehouse receipts are at a ten - year low, and nr warehouse receipts are at a medium - low level. Synthetic rubber inventory is moderately high. Full - steel truck tire inventory days are at a medium - high level in recent years, and semi - steel tire inventory days are at a high level [46][56][66]. 3.6 Supply - Side Analysis - **Production**: According to ANRPC, the cumulative global natural rubber production in the first three quarters of this year is expected to increase by 2.3%, and consumption is expected to decrease by 1.5%. As of October, ANRPC's production increased slightly. China's natural rubber production in the first nine months of 2025 increased by over 7%. The global production is expected to increase by 0.75% this year. The global rubber production capacity is approaching the ceiling, and ANRPC's capacity will enter a deficit mode (excluding Africa, Myanmar, and Laos). High prices stimulate output, but low prices lead to reduced production. The price has the greatest impact on output, followed by weather [75][83]. - **Imports**: In 2024, rubber imports were lower than in previous years due to EU Eudr diversion, overseas restocking, and reduced arbitrage demand. In the first ten months of 2025, the cumulative imports of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in China increased by 15% compared to the same period in 2024. Currently, the implementation of EUDR has been postponed until the end of 2026 and 2027 [86]. 3.7 Demand - Side Analysis - **Tire Industry**: In 2025, the overall operating rate of full - steel truck tires was on the rise but still low, at a low level in recent years. The current operating rate of semi - steel tires is not high. As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire outer - tube production was 0.6%, with the marginal growth rate continuing to decline and significantly slower than last year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of tire exports as of November was 3.8%, with the growth rate also marginally decreasing, performing relatively well but still lower than last year [107][111]. - **Heavy - Trucks**: Heavy - truck sales are still supported by policies and replacement cycles. Despite weak real - estate data, the trade - in policy boosts heavy - truck sales. In December 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 95,000 vehicles (wholesale basis, including exports and new - energy vehicles), a month - on - month decrease of about 16% compared to November 2025 and a year - on - year increase of about 13% compared to 84,200 vehicles in the same period last year. Large infrastructure projects such as the Yajiang Hydropower Station are beneficial for long - term heavy - truck demand [116]. - **Passenger Cars**: Domestic passenger - car sales (including exports) performed well under policy stimulus, domestic substitution, and overseas market expansion, but the marginal growth rate has shown signs of fatigue. Overseas automobile sales are fluctuating weakly [119]. - **Infrastructure and Real Estate**: The real - estate sector in 2025 continued to deteriorate, dragging down the market. The current new construction area is less than one - third of the peak. Given the long real - estate cycle and the unfavorable population situation, a turnaround will take time. Cement production had negative growth last year and is marginally improving this year, but as of November, the cumulative year - on - year negative growth has deepened. Transportation investment is an important measure for stable growth. Major infrastructure projects such as large - scale hydropower and railway projects have started, opening up new space for infrastructure construction [129][133][139]. - **Freight Volume**: Road freight volume is recovering with difficulty. It caught up with 2019 levels in 2024 and continued to grow in 2025. It is affected by the sharp decline in real - estate physical work and the substitution of railway and waterway transportation [145].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of PVC remains weak. The cancellation of export tax rebates will directly increase the export cost of PVC, but there may be a rush to export before April 1st. In the long - term, attention should be paid to the impact on supply due to intensified competition among upstream enterprises [8]. - Operationally, short - term unilateral trading can be conducted within the range, with the 2605 contract reference range of 4700 - 4950. For arbitrage, a positive spread between the 3 - 5 contracts can be considered [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Supply - Last week, the upstream PVC operating rate was 79.63%, a 0.04 - percentage - point decrease from the previous week and a 2.3 - percentage - point decrease year - on - year, at a neutral level in the same period. The supply pressure is still relatively high. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua has a 300,000 - ton new production capacity, and the supply expansion is coming to an end [8]. - In 2025, the new production capacity was 2.2 million tons, with a growth rate close to 8%, and the effective production capacity exceeded 29 million tons. In 2026, only Zhejiang Jiahua has a 300,000 - ton new production capacity plan, and abroad, only the UAE has a 350,000 - ton plan to be put into production by the end of 2026 [25]. - Last week, the PVC output was 487,500 tons, a 0.05% decrease from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year, mainly due to the maintenance of facilities such as Fujian Wanhua and Yibin Tianyuan [25]. 2. Demand - The operating rate of downstream products continued to be weak. It is the off - season for terminal demand, construction in northern construction sites has stopped, and orders are poor. Since April 1st, 2026, the export tax rebate for PVC value - added tax has been cancelled, and attention should be paid to the potential increase in short - and medium - term export demand [8]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of PVC powder was 3.51 million tons, a 47% increase year - on - year. The main export destinations are India, Vietnam, Uzbekistan, etc. India cancelled the BIS certification policy for PVC imports in November and the anti - dumping duty is expected to end, which is favorable for domestic PVC exports in the long run [63]. - From January to November 2025, the cumulative export of Chinese PVC flooring materials was 3.7852 million tons, an 11.02% decrease year - on - year, mainly sold to Europe and the United States [65]. 3. Inventory - Last week, the domestic PVC social inventory was 1.1441 million tons, a 2.69% increase from the previous week and a 52.49% increase year - on - year. The enterprise inventory was 310,800 tons, a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and a 27.27% increase year - on - year. The futures registered warehouse receipt volume increased again [8]. 4. PVC Contract Spreads - The 1 - 5 spread of PVC remained stable and was higher year - on - year. The 5 - 9 spread remained stable from the previous week and was higher year - on - year. The overall futures monthly spread structure still maintained a contango pattern with higher prices in the distant future, indicating that expectations are stronger than reality [18]. - The 9 - 1 spread remained stable from the previous week and was lower year - on - year. The basis of the main contract rebounded slightly from the previous week and was weaker year - on - year [19]. 5. Valuation - Last week, the price of semi - coke remained stable from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of calcium carbide also remained stable from the previous week, with the mainstream price in Wuhai region reported at 2,400 yuan/ton. There was a decrease in calcium carbide supply in Shaanxi, and Xinjiang increased its external procurement due to environmental protection [82]. - The price of ethylene decreased slightly from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of vinyl chloride remained stable from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years [86]. - The price of liquid caustic soda decreased slightly from the previous week, at the lowest level in the same period over the years. The price of liquid chlorine rebounded significantly and was higher year - on - year [90]. - Last week, the loss of calcium carbide - based PVC slightly expanded and remained at a low level in the same period. The loss of ethylene - based PVC decreased, with a reduced loss year - on - year [93]. - Last week, the production profit of Shandong chlor - alkali continued to rise slightly from the previous week but decreased year - on - year [98].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current oil price is near the five - year low, but the technical side of Brent crude oil remains strong after the mid - line breakthrough. The fundamentals are boosted by geopolitical situations. The US's increasing control over Venezuela is conducive to the increase of Venezuelan oil supply in the medium term. The relatively low oil price and currency depreciation will support the oil price. The restrictions on fuel - powered vehicles in Europe and the US have been marginally relaxed. The PX profit is good, the operation rate is at a high level, the PX inventory is at a low level, and the tight pattern continues. - According to the production plan, the supply - demand fundamentals of PX and PTA are improving. There is no new PX production capacity planned to be put into operation in the first half of next year, and no new PTA production capacity is planned to be put into operation next year. The PTA spot processing fee is about 340 yuan/ton, still at a relatively low level. The processing fee of the May contract on the disk is around 345, which has increased since mid - December. Last week, the PTA weekly average capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 77.22%, which is at a neutral level in the same period. - The inventory of PTA production enterprises is at a low level, the social inventory is relatively low, and the PTA inventory of downstream polyester factories is at a low level. - In December 2025, the actual consumption of PTA was 6.146 million tons. Last week, the polyester operation rate slightly dropped to 86.7% on a month - on - month basis, which is at a relatively high level in the same period. Last week, the output of the polyester industry was 1.55 million tons, and the year - on - year growth continued. Last week, the comprehensive operation rate of chemical fiber weaving in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 48.15%, slightly higher than the same period last year. - It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously, with support at around 4950 - 5050 [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Upstream - The oil price is near the five - year low, but the technical side of Brent crude is strong after the mid - line breakthrough. The fundamentals are boosted by geopolitical situations. The US's control over Venezuela is strengthening, which is beneficial to the increase of Venezuelan oil supply in the medium term. Currency depreciation supports the relatively low oil price, and the restrictions on fuel - powered vehicles in Europe and the US are marginally relaxed. The PX profit is good, the operation is at a high level, the inventory is low, and the tight pattern continues [5]. Supply - According to the production plan, the PX and PTA supply - demand fundamentals are positive. There is no new PX production capacity planned in the first half of next year, and no new PTA production capacity next year. The PTA spot processing fee is about 340 yuan/ton (low), and the May contract processing fee on the disk is around 345, rising since mid - December. Last week, the PTA capacity utilization rate slightly dropped to 77.22% (neutral in the same period) [5]. Inventory - PTA production enterprises' inventory is low, social inventory is low, and downstream polyester factories' PTA inventory is low. Last week, the PTA industry inventory was about 3.19 million tons, and the PTA factory inventory was 3.62 days. The polyester factory's PTA raw material inventory was 7.5 days last week, unchanged from the previous week [5][58][62]. Demand - In December 2025, PTA consumption was 6.146 million tons. Last week, the polyester operation rate dropped slightly to 86.7% (high in the same period). The polyester industry output was 1.55 million tons last week, with continued year - on - year growth. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving operation rate was 48.15% last week, slightly higher than the same period last year [5][78][81]. Futures Market - The 1 - 5 spread is in the negative range, slightly in contango. The 5 - 9 spread is slightly in back. The overall futures monthly spread maintains a structure of near - term contango and far - term back. The basis is around 0 [9][12]. Valuation - The PX production profit has increased since last October and recently pulled back. The PTA spot processing fee has been flat in recent weeks, and the futures disk processing fee has rebounded significantly since mid - December [20][27][32]. Supply - side - The PTA capacity utilization rate dropped slightly to 77.22% on a month - on - month basis, at a neutral level in the same period. Last week, the PTA output was 1.45 million tons. With the increasing domestic self - sufficiency rate, the PTA import volume is low and can be basically ignored, and the export volume is lower than last year [48][52][53]. Demand - side - In December 2025, the PTA actual consumption was 6.146 million tons. Last week, the polyester operation rate dropped slightly to 86.7% (high in the same period). The polyester industry output was 1.55 million tons last week, with continued year - on - year growth. The Jiangsu and Zhejiang chemical fiber weaving operation rate was 48.15% last week, slightly higher than the same period last year. The overall export is weaker than last year [78][81][102].

Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Treasury Bond Weekly Report: Structural Interest Rate Cut Implemented, Short - Duration High - Quality Bonds Lead the Rise" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1405.62 billion yuan, with the supply rhythm significantly advanced at the beginning of the year. Government bonds and credit bonds jointly pushed up the weekly issuance volume. Market institutions predict that the net financing of government bonds in Q1 2026 may reach 830 - 880 billion yuan [7] - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 171.28 billion yuan to supplement short - and medium - term liquidity, hedge against capital gaps, and support the "good start" of credit and the stable operation of the bond market [7] - This week, the performance of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities was significantly differentiated. There was a strong preference for short - duration high - coupon assets, and the market was cautious about the credit risk of industrial bonds. 1 - 3 - year credit bonds were the core of allocation [7] - This week, the long - end yield continued to decline. It is recommended to appropriately allocate 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and local bonds on dips [7] - In December 2025, new social financing decreased year - on - year, and the stock growth rate declined. The central bank's targeted easing policies will improve the inefficiency of capital activation and reduce the financing cost of key areas [9] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Issuance - This week, the total issuance scale of China's bond market was 1405.62 billion yuan. Government bonds (treasury bonds + local bonds) issued over 1.2 trillion yuan, and the combined issuance of medium - term notes, commercial paper, and financial bonds was 314.781 billion yuan. Market institutions predict that the net financing of government bonds in Q1 2026 may reach 830 - 880 billion yuan, with a monthly average of over 130 billion yuan, much higher than in 2025 [7] 2. Central Bank Operations - This week, the central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 171.28 billion yuan. On January 15, a 90 - billion - yuan 6 - month repurchase was carried out, with a net injection of 30 billion yuan. Considering the large tax revenue in January, the central bank used daily repurchases and term repurchases to avoid a sharp tightening of liquidity [7] 3. Credit Bond Performance - This week, the performance of credit bonds with different ratings and maturities was significantly differentiated. The yield of AA - rated 1 - year urban investment bonds dropped from 2.39% on January 12 to 1.08% on January 16, a decrease of over 130 BP. Some high - rated varieties entered the "negative spread" range. The average yield of AAA - rated industrial bonds was 7.31%, significantly higher than that of urban investment bonds. 1 - 3 - year credit bonds were the core of allocation, and funds preferred 3 - year - and - below varieties [7] 4. Yield and Liquidity - This week, the long - end yield continued to decline, with the 30 - year treasury bond yield falling to 2.3010% and the 10 - year yield falling to 1.8430%. DR007 fluctuated around the 1.40% policy rate, and the overnight Shibor was stable in the 1.2% - 1.3% range. Short - end liquidity remained loose, and it was recommended to appropriately allocate 1 - 3 - year treasury bonds and local bonds on dips [7] 5. Social Financing and Monetary Data in December 2025 - New social financing in December 2025 was 221 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 64.62 billion yuan. The stock growth rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 8.3%. The net financing of government bonds decreased significantly year - on - year, dragging down the overall social financing growth rate [9] - In terms of credit structure, corporate loans increased by 107 billion yuan year - on - year, with short - term loans and bill financing accounting for a relatively high proportion. Resident loans decreased, and the "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 widened [9] - The central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 0.25 percentage points and added 400 billion yuan in re - loan quotas for scientific and technological innovation and technological transformation. The minimum down - payment ratio for commercial real estate loans was reduced from 50% to 30% [9] - In December 2025, the weighted average interest rate of newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans both dropped to a historical low of 3.1%. The targeted easing policy will improve capital activation and reduce the financing cost of key areas [9] 6. Charts and Data - The report includes multiple charts on treasury bond futures prices, basis, implied interest rates, yield curves, various bond yields, inter - bank repurchase rates, lending rates, money market liquidity, bond market liquidity, foreign bond markets, etc., providing data support for the analysis of the bond market situation [10][13][15]

期货交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 华联期货聚烯烃周报 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 周度观点及策略 供应压力仍较大，承压调整 20260118 萧勇辉 交易咨询号：Z0019917 从业资格号：F03091536 0769-22110802 审核：邓丹，从业资格号: F0300922，交易咨询号：Z0011401 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 基本面概述 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 ◆ 库存：据隆众资讯统计：本周，中国聚乙烯生产企业样本库存量预计：37万吨左右，库存预计由跌 转涨；中国聚丙烯生产企业库存量预计：42万吨左右，较本期下降。 ◆ 供应：据隆众资讯统计：本周，广东石化、福 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, with Indonesia canceling the implementation of the B50 policy this year, it is expected that the oil and fat market will experience wide - range fluctuations [5]. - The overall situation of the 12 - month MPOB report is bearish, with Malaysia's palm oil inventory exceeding expectations and accumulating [40]. - The overall situation of the oil and fat market in the short term is likely to be wide - range fluctuations [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Viewpoints - **Soybean oil**: In the South American Brazilian main producing areas, there has been good rainfall recently, which is beneficial to the growth of sown soybeans. In the core producing areas of Argentina, there will be less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which needs key attention [7]. - **Palm oil**: ITS and AmSpec data show that the export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 18.64% and 17.5% respectively compared with the previous period. The Indonesian government has decided to maintain the biodiesel plan at the B40 level this year, and will increase the palm oil export tax to 12.5% from March. The US government is expected to finalize the final biofuel blending quota for 2026 in early March, with the expected biomass diesel blending volume being 5.2 - 5.6 billion gallons, higher than 3.35 billion gallons in 2025, and no import - suppressing measures on foreign raw materials will be implemented [7]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The Canadian Prime Minister said that it is expected that by March 1, China will reduce the tariff on Canadian rapeseed to a total of about 15% [7]. 3.2 Strategy Views and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the resistance level of palm oil 05 be referred to as 8,800 - 9,000; for options, it is recommended to wait and see for the time being [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see for the time being [9]. - **Outlook**: Pay attention to national biodiesel policies, the production and export of Southeast Asian palm oil, China's rapeseed import policy, and crude oil prices [9]. 3.3 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, the oil and fat market fluctuated widely, mainly affected by Indonesia's biodiesel policy, export policy, and US biodiesel policy news [21]. - The soybean - palm oil spread fluctuated widely, the rapeseed - palm oil spread fluctuated weakly, and the rapeseed - soybean spread fluctuated widely. It is recommended to wait and see for all [26]. 3.4 Supply Side - **Malaysian palm oil**: In December, Malaysia's crude palm oil production decreased by 5.46% to 1.8298 million tons compared with the previous month, consumption decreased by 14.01% to 0.3197 million tons, export volume increased by 8.55% to 1.3165 million tons, and the palm oil inventory at the end of December increased by 7.59% to 3.0506 million tons, exceeding market expectations [40]. - **Domestic soybean and soybean oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0251 million tons, a decrease of 55,900 tons from the previous week, a decline of 5.17%, and an increase of 131,100 tons compared with the same period last year, a rise of 14.66% [78]. - **Domestic rapeseed and rapeseed oil**: As of January 9, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 251,500 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in main national regions was 253,500 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous week [82]. - **Domestic palm oil**: As of January 9, 2026 (the 2nd week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.30%, and an increase of 234,800 tons compared with 501,200 tons last year, an increase of 46.85% [78]. 3.5 Demand Side - The report provides charts of domestic soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oil and fat trading volumes, but no specific analysis content is given [67][69][71][73]. 3.6 Inventory - As of January 9, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 1.0251 million tons, a decrease of 55,900 tons from the previous week, a decline of 5.17%, and an increase of 131,100 tons compared with the same period last year, a rise of 14.66% [78]. - As of January 9, 2026 (the 2nd week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in key national regions was 736,000 tons, an increase of 2,200 tons from the previous week, an increase of 0.30%, and an increase of 234,800 tons compared with 501,200 tons last year, an increase of 46.85% [78]. - As of January 9, 2026, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal main oil mills was 0.2 million tons, a decrease of 0.1 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory in East China was 251,500 tons, a decrease of 15,500 tons from the previous week; the total rapeseed oil inventory in main national regions was 253,500 tons, a decrease of 16,500 tons from the previous week [82]. 3.7 Disk Import Profit - As of January 16, 2026, the disk import profit of 24 - degree palm oil for the February shipment was - 106 yuan/ton [88].

1. Report Overview - Report Name: Hualian Futures Silver Weekly Report [1] - Date: January 18, 2025 [1] - Author: Zeng Ke [1] - Transaction Consultation Number: Z0022773 [1] - Qualification Number: F03118676 [1] 2. Market Performance - Price Increase: In 2025, the cumulative increases were 148% and 129% respectively [1] - Spread: Last week, the spread between domestic and foreign silver futures continued to climb, closing at a maximum spread of 2330; the London spot gold - silver ratio fell below 50 during the week and finally closed at 51.02 [1] 3. US Economic Indicators - Manufacturing PMI: In December, the US manufacturing PMI was 47.9, lower than the expected 48.4 and the previous value of 48.2 [1] - Employment: In December, non - farm payrolls increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 65,000, and the data for the previous two months was significantly revised downward; the unemployment rate dropped to 4.4%, lower than the expected 4.5% [1] - Inflation: In December, the US CPI rose 2.7% year - on - year, the same as in November, in line with market expectations; the core CPI rose 2.6% year - on - year, the slowest growth rate since early 2021, the same as in November, lower than the expected 2.7% [1] - Interest Rate: Last week, the yield on the 10 - year US Treasury note rose 6 basis points, and the US dollar index continued to strengthen [1] 4. Silver Supply and Demand - Supply - demand Gap: In 2025, the global silver market's supply - demand gap is expected to exceed 100 million ounces, with the market in a state of supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year [1] - Investment Demand: As of January 16, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,070 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.444% [1] - Inventory: The LBMA inventory has dropped to a historical low. As of December, there were about 27,817 tons of silver inventory, but most of it is silver physically linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [1] 5. Market Views and Strategies - View: Last week, silver rose strongly and then adjusted, remaining at a high level overall. The market's safe - haven demand support remains strong. The supply side of silver has significant growth difficulties, while the demand side has obvious increments. The structural trend of silver has not changed, and the medium - to - long - term trend is expected to remain strong [9] - Strategy: It is recommended to hold long positions in AG2604 in the medium term [9] 6. Risk and Disclaimer - Risk: The report reminds investors to carefully judge the accuracy and integrity of the information and bear investment risks independently [1][11][13] - Disclaimer: The information in the report comes from publicly available information, and the report does not guarantee the completeness and authenticity of the information. It does not constitute the final basis for buying or selling relevant futures varieties [91]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: "Hualian Futures Crude Oil Weekly: Short - term Focus on Geopolitical Disturbances" [2] - Report Date: 20250118 [2] - Analyst: Huang Guiren [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Overall, crude oil supply and demand remain in an oversupplied state, and global oil inventories are at a high level. There are still short - term geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, Iran, etc. Technically, it mainly shows a range - bound pattern. For mid - to long - term futures trading, it should still be treated bearishly, but in the short - term, attention should be paid to geopolitical pulse - like disturbances. One can buy continuous call options for protection, and the resistance level for the SC2603 contract is at 450 - 460 yuan/barrel. [8] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 Supply - **OPEC+ Production**: In December, OPEC+ total crude oil production was 42.831 million barrels per day, a month - on - month decrease of 238,000 barrels per day. OPEC crude oil production was 28.564 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 105,000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia's crude oil production was 10.078 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 27,000 barrels per day. Due to seasonal factors, OPEC decided to suspend the production increase plan in the first three months of 2026. [9][32] - **US Production**: The US crude oil production exceeded 13.8 million barrels per day, maintaining a high level. As of the week ending January 9, the US crude oil production was 13.811 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 16,000 barrels and a year - on - year increase of 248,000 barrels per day. The US shale oil production in December was 9.22 million barrels per day, accounting for about 66% of the total crude oil production. [9][47] - **China Production and Import**: In November, China's crude oil production was 17.627 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.2%. The cumulative production from January to November was 198 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.54%. China's crude oil imports in November were 50.891 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2% and a year - on - year increase of 84.9%. The cumulative imports from January to November were 522 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%. [51] - **Drilling Quantity**: As of December last year, the global active oil and gas rig count was 1,782, a month - on - month decrease of 30 and a year - on - year decrease of 82. Among them, the US rig count was 546, a month - on - month decrease of 3 and a year - on - year decrease of 43. [28] 4.2 Demand - **Global Demand Forecast**: The IEA monthly report raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2025 from 710,000 barrels per day to 788,000 barrels per day and expected the growth of oil demand in the fourth quarter to slow down. It also raised the forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026 from 699,000 barrels per day to 770,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the total global oil supply in 2026 will exceed the demand by 4.09 million barrels per day. The EIA short - term energy outlook report expects the average daily increase in global crude oil inventories in 2026 to reach 2.8 million barrels, basically the same as the increase in 2025. OPEC maintained its previous forecast of global oil demand growth in 2026, believing that the average daily global oil demand in 2026 will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day compared with 2025. [9] - **Refinery Operating Rate**: As of the week ending January 9, the US refinery operating rate was 95.3%, a week - on - week increase of 0.6 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.6 percentage points, at a seasonal high. China's refinery operating rate was 70.62%, remaining flat both week - on - week and year - on - year. Domestic major refineries' operating rate rebounded month - on - month and was at a moderately high level, while independent refineries' operating rate decreased month - on - month. [61][65] - **Product Oil Production and Export**: In 2025, China's cumulative gasoline production from January to December was 162.8 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.07%, at the lowest level in recent years. The cumulative gasoline exports from January to November were 7.6775 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.1%. The cumulative diesel production from January to December was 209.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.55%. The cumulative diesel exports from January to November were 6.25 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21.28%. The cumulative kerosene production from January to December was 61.6166 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.76%. The cumulative exports from January to November were 19.5845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.56%. [70][75][79] - **Automobile and Truck Production**: In 2025, China's cumulative automobile production was 34.531 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%. Among them, the cumulative production of new - energy vehicles was 16.626 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 29%. The rapid development of China's new - energy vehicle industry since 2020 has had a certain substitution effect on traditional oil product demand. [84] 4.3 Inventory - **OECD and Global In - transit Inventory**: According to the OPEC monthly report, in November, OECD commercial oil inventories increased by 4 million barrels month - on - month (with crude oil increasing by 8.1 million barrels and refined oil decreasing by 4.1 million barrels), 77.6 million barrels higher than the same period last year and slightly 300,000 barrels higher than the five - year average. The global in - transit crude oil inventory decreased from its high but remained at a high level. [90] - **US Inventory**: As of the week ending January 9, the US commercial crude oil inventory increased by 3.391 million barrels, and the Cushing crude oil inventory increased by 745,000 barrels. The US EIA gasoline inventory increased by 8.977 million barrels, and the distillate oil inventory decreased by 290,000 barrels. With the high refinery operating rate in the US, refined oil inventories continued to accumulate. [92][96] - **China Inventory**: China's port crude oil inventory decreased week - on - week last week but was higher year - on - year. The exchange warehouse receipt inventory remained stable at a low level. [101] 4.4 Macro Data - Not elaborated on in detail in the report, only some related data charts are provided, including China and US GDP year - on - year growth rates, the US dollar index, US non - farm employment numbers, and China's composite PMI.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of the expected bumper harvest of new crops in South America, it is anticipated that soybean and rapeseed meal will likely experience short - term fluctuations and trend weakly [5]. - The January USDA report is negative, as it lowers U.S. soybean exports and raises the projected output of new Brazilian soybean crops by 3 million tons [7]. - In South America, recent good rainfall in the main production areas of Brazil is beneficial for the growth of sown soybeans, while the core production areas of Argentina may have less or average rainfall in the next two weeks, which requires close attention [7]. - In China, the high transaction price of the imported soybean auction by Sinograin on Tuesday supported the spot price, but the reserve auction also increased market supply. The news that China is expected to reduce tariffs on Canadian rapeseed by March 1 is negative for rapeseed meal [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Strategy View and Outlook - **Unilateral**: It is recommended that the pressure level for soybean meal 2605 be referenced at 2850 - 2950 [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Temporarily on the sidelines [9]. - **Outlook**: Key points to watch include the weather conditions in South American soybean - producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic demand for soybean meal, and China - Canada and China - U.S. trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate and trend weakly in the short term [9]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Structure - Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures fluctuated weakly [21]. - The January USDA report is negative, as it lowers U.S. soybean exports and raises the projected output of new Brazilian soybean crops by 3 million tons [22]. - The price spread between soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuates strongly. Currently, the spread is at a mid - historical level, and it is recommended to wait and see [27]. - The 3 - 5 spread of soybean meal fluctuates strongly, and it is recommended to wait and see [33]. 3.3 Supply Side - **U.S. Soybean Sales Data**: Charts show the net sales volume, weekly export volume, and unsold shipped volume of U.S. soybeans in the current year [41][48]. - **U.S. Soybean Crushing Data**: As of the week of January 9, 2026, the U.S. soybean crushing profit was $2.12 per bushel, a 9.01% decrease from the previous week and a 10.42% increase from the same period last year [54]. - **China's Soybean Import Volume**: In December 2025, China imported 8.044 million tons of soybeans, a decrease of 63,000 tons from November 2025 and a 1.3% increase from December 2024. From January to December 2025, China's cumulative soybean imports totaled 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% increase year - on - year [58]. - **China's Rapeseed Import Volume**: Charts show the monthly and cumulative import volume of rapeseed in China [61]. - **Domestic Soybean and Rapeseed Crushing Data**: Charts show China's soybean and rapeseed crushing volume, rapeseed meal output, and the crushing profit of imported soybeans [65][71]. 3.4 Demand Side - **Pig Prices and Breeding Profits**: Charts show China's commercial pig slaughter average price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit, and purchased - pig breeding profit [76]. - **Poultry Breeding Profits**: Charts show the breeding profits of white - feather broilers and laying hens [85]. 3.5 Inventory - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of January 9, the national port soybean inventory was 7.1312 million tons, a 0.40% increase from the previous week and a 17.96% increase year - on - year; the domestic oil - mill soybean meal inventory was 1.044 million tons, a 10.78% decrease from the previous week and a 72.68% increase year - on - year [90]. - **Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days**: As of January 16 (the 3rd week of 2026), the national feed enterprise soybean meal physical inventory was 9.94 days, an increase of 0.41 days from the previous period and a decrease of 0.31 days from the same period last year [94]. - **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of the 2nd week of 2026, the rapeseed meal inventory in coastal oil mills was 0 tons, unchanged from the previous week; the total rapeseed meal inventory in major regions across the country was 449,500 tons, a decrease of 3,600 tons from the previous week [98].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum market is in a tight supply - demand balance, and aluminum prices still have upward potential under the support of global wide - policy and the tight supply - demand balance. The traditional consumption areas have a slowdown in growth, and exports are restricted by US tariff policies, but emerging areas such as artificial intelligence, energy storage, and robotics show clear incremental demand. The "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue due to the high copper - aluminum price ratio. [7] - The raw material bauxite supply is expected to remain loose, but policy changes in Guinea need attention. Alumina supply pressure exists with large - scale new production capacity, and policy adjustments in the domestic industry should be closely watched. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity expansion channels are basically closed, and overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - The strategy is to hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - ly Views and Strategies - **Macro**: Geopolitical events such as the US military action in Venezuela, the US - EU tension, and the uncertainty in the Middle East have increased market concerns. The US employment growth in December 2025 was still sluggish with 50,000 new non - farm jobs and a 4.4% unemployment rate. [7] - **Supply**: Bauxite supply is expected to be loose, but Guinea's policy changes are a risk. Alumina supply pressure persists with large new - capacity projects, and cost provides some price support. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is relatively stable, and the expansion channel is basically closed. Overseas supply growth in 2026 is limited. [7] - **Demand**: Traditional consumption areas have a slowdown, and exports are affected by US tariffs. However, emerging areas like AI, energy storage, and robotics will drive demand growth, and the "aluminum substituting for copper" trend will continue. [7] - **Inventory**: Domestic consumption has entered the traditional off - season, social inventory is increasing, and the spot discount is widening. [7] - **Strategy**: Hold medium - term long positions and buy on dips. The medium - term support range for Shanghai Aluminum 2603 is 23,000 - 23,300 yuan/ton. [7] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents figures on domestic aluminum futures and spot prices, A00 aluminum ingot spot premiums and discounts, LME aluminum prices, and the Shanghai - LME aluminum ratio, but no specific analysis is provided other than the data sources. [11][15] 3.3 Supply and Inventory - **Bauxite**: In November 2025, China imported 15.11 million tons of bauxite, a 22.50% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 187 million tons, a 29.61% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative import was 158.767 million tons, a 12.3% year - on - year increase. Guinea was the main source, accounting for 69.41%. Domestic bauxite production from January to October 2025 was 50.5155 million tons, a 5.19% year - on - year increase, but in October, it decreased by 6.96% year - on - year. Since July, domestic bauxite port inventory has declined. [25][31] - **Alumina**: In November 2025, the weighted average full cost of domestic alumina was 2,870 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan/ton month - on - month decrease. The spot price dropped to 2,869 yuan/ton, a 2.6% month - on - month decrease. The industry was near the break - even point with an average loss of 1 yuan/ton. In November 2025, China's alumina production was 8.138 million tons, a 7.6% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 84.657 million tons, an 8.4% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the cumulative import was 970,300 tons, a 30.92% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative export was 2.3433 million tons, a 46.7% year - on - year increase. The net export was 1.373 million tons, a 612.58% year - on - year increase. In 2025, it was a year of large - scale capacity investment, and there are still many projects to be put into production in 2026 and later. [39][41] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, the electrolytic aluminum industry showed "increasing cost and growing profit". The weighted average full cost was 16,297 yuan/ton, a 1.9% month - on - month increase. The average profit was about 5,400 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum smelting enterprise's built - in capacity was 45.158 million tons, and the operating capacity was estimated to be 43.479 million tons, with an operating rate of 96.28%. In November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 6.086 million tons, a 0.5% year - on - year increase. From January to November 2025, the global primary aluminum production was 64.93 million tons. From January to November 2025, domestic electrolytic aluminum production was 40.172 million tons, a 2% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports were about 1.47 million tons, a 2.44% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was about 23.578 million tons, a 19.35% year - on - year increase. From January to November, the domestic primary aluminum export was about 5.83 million tons. As of January 8, 2026, the LME futures inventory was 501,800 tons, and the domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 718,000 tons. [55][61][62][68][72][73] 3.4 Primary Processing and Terminal Markets - **Aluminum Alloys**: In November 2025, China's aluminum alloy production was 1.739 million tons, a 17.0% year - on - year increase; from January to November, the cumulative production was 17.456 million tons, a 15.8% year - on - year increase. In 2024, the cumulative production was 16.141 million tons, a 9.6% year - on - year increase. [81] - **Aluminum Products and Bars**: In November 2025, China's aluminum product production was 5.931 million tons, a 0.4% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative production was 61.511 million tons, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. In 2024, the national aluminum product production was 67.8311 million tons, a 7.7% year - on - year increase. [88] - **Aluminum Imports and Exports**: In November 2025, China's imports of un - wrought aluminum and aluminum products were 240,000 tons, a 14.0% year - on - year decrease; from January to November, the cumulative import was 3.6 million tons, a 4.4% year - on - year increase. In November 2025, the export was 570,000 tons, a 14.8% year - on - year decrease and a 13.3% month - on - month increase; from January to November, the cumulative export was 5.589 million tons, a 9.2% year - on - year decrease. [94] - **Downstream Demand**: In real estate, from January to November 2025, the national real estate development investment was 7.8591 trillion yuan, a 15.9% year - on - year decrease. In 2026, building aluminum consumption is expected to decline by 5% to 9.088 million tons, and its proportion in the overall electrolytic aluminum downstream demand will drop to 21%. In the transportation industry, the demand for aluminum in the automotive sector is expected to increase, with new energy vehicle aluminum demand reaching 4.373 million tons in 2026. In the power industry, the growth of photovoltaic aluminum consumption will slow down, while energy - storage aluminum demand is expected to increase significantly, with a 60% year - on - year increase in global energy - storage battery shipments in 2026, driving an 815,000 - ton increase in aluminum demand. [105][109] 3.5 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet and Industrial Chain Structure - **Supply - Demand Forecast**: Domestically, the decline in real - estate aluminum consumption in 2025 will be offset by the growth of new demand in photovoltaic and new - energy vehicles, and domestic electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a tight balance in 2026. Globally, the global primary aluminum production in 2026 is expected to be 75.4 million tons, a 2.2% year - on - year increase. The global aluminum demand is expected to increase by 2.7%, and the supply - demand will be in a tight balance. After 2027, as China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity reaches its peak, the supply increment will mainly come from overseas, and the demand from new energy and AI will continue to grow, leading to an expanding supply - demand gap. [112] - **Industrial Chain Structure**: No specific content analysis is provided other than the data source. [116]